Crunch Time

One week left, and the heat is on. All kinds of news is floating around about who is rising and who is falling as teams get down to the nitty gritty and the misinformation swirls. Here’s my attempt at a full first round mock draft…

1. Detroit

Can’t you just feel the Lions fidgeting around in Detroit trying to decide what to? It’s enough of a conundrum that multiple articles have been written debating whether or not the Lions should dodge the pick by allowing the ten-minute time limit to expire without making their choice. In that case the Rams would have the chance to pick. After the Rams, the Chiefs would be able to choose and so on until the Lions made it up to the podium to turn in the card for their selection. It could present a scenario that would have the Lions’ representative sprinting to the podium jockeying for position against other teams trying to beat them to the punch. Maybe they will elect Calvin Johnson to be their card runner. Who says the draft can’t be exciting? On second thought, what if the Rams didn’t step up to the plate either? Maybe that would be the kind of embarrassment the league needs for all parties to realize something needs to be done about the rookie salary structure. In any case, we’ll assume Detroit takes their medicine and makes the pick. Which way do they go: QB Matthew Stafford or OT Jason Smith? How about option C: None of the above. Mark Sanchez has gained quite a bit of momentum since his pro day workout. His physical abilities are a notch below Stafford’s, but he’s a hard worker and I think he has a leg up in terms of mechanics and intangibles. The ESPN boys are still locked in on Stafford, but some of the NFL.com crew are starting to waiver. Who knows what will happen, but I think Sanchez is the better pro prospect.

The Pick: Mark Sanchez, QB USC

2. St. Louis

It still boils down to Aaron Curry, Jason Smith, and Eugene Monroe for the Rams. Offensive tackle is their greatest need, so they probably pass on Curry. Monroe is a slightly safer pick, but Smith has more of a chance to be great. Some have reported St. Louis staff members prefer Monroe, but in the end I think they’ll swing for the fences.

The Pick: Jason Smith, OT Baylor

3. Kansas City

Curry is the best player available, but there might be some temptation to sure up the OT position to protect their Cassel investment. Monroe along with Brandon Albert sounds good, but is either a fit on the right side? Curry is versatile enough to step in and play next to recently acquired veterans Mike Vrabel and Zach Thomas.

The Pick: Aaron Curry, OLB Wake Forest

4. Seattle

Some mock drafts have Seattle toying with the luxury of bringing in the quarterback of the future here. With a veteran like Matt Hasselbeck on the roster who has two or three years left in his tank, this might actually be the best fit for Stafford but I’m not sold Seattle will bite. Monroe is another name that has been tied to Seattle as a contingency plan for an aging veteran, but I still think the answer is Michael Crabtree. Most analysts have shied away from slotting Michael Crabtree to the Seahawks since the Houshmandzadeh signing, but Nate Burleson is more of a #3 than a #2 WR and Crabtree would give Seattle a second solid starter for when Deion Branch gets hurt again. Don’t forget, Seattle’s receiving corps has been devastated with injuries the past couple years. At one point I thought they might call up Steve Largent. I wouldn’t be surprised if Seahawks coaches feel like they need five or six starting caliber wide outs on the roster to make it through the year.

The Pick: Michael Crabtree, WR Texas Tech

5. Cleveland

Mangini’s boys have been working overtime lately. Reports have Brian Orakpo sliding a bit because of questions surrounding his durability and toughness, and rumor has it the Browns have an eye for Sanchez. In the language universally spoken by Bellichek disciples everywhere, Orakpo is a lock to land in Cleveland. A Sanchez selection isn’t quite as unrealistic as it sounds, but the Browns would have to find a buyer for Brady Quinn. All the Braylon Edwards trade talk has many thinking Crabtree here, but neither player is an option in this scenario. From there it turns into a defensive discussion with the most likely options being Orakpo or DT B.J. Raji, and it doesn’t make much sense to spend a top 5 pick to bring Raji in to caddy for Shaun Rogers.

The Pick: Brian Orakpo, LB Texas

6. Cincinnati

Since my last post, Cincy has made some solid moves retaining LB’s Brandon Johnson and Rashad Jeanty and signing on DT Tank Johnson. I like what DT Raji would bring to the defense enough that I wouldn’t be opposed to taking Raji and letting T. Johnson and Jason Shirley fight it out for a roster spot. However, if either Monroe or J. Smith is still on the board it would be tough to ignore the OT need. Monroe is a good all around player who excels at pass blocking. If they can’t count on Levi Jones, it sounds like a good fit to me. If I were Marvin Lewis, my draft board looks like this: Curry, J. Smith, Monroe, Raji, Crabtree, and Andre smith. If they move Chad Johnson, Crabtree jumps up to the third or fourth slot.

The Pick: Eugene Monroe, OT Virginia

7. Oakland

The Raiders could use upgrades on the offensive and defensive lines and need help at wide receiver. There hasn’t been much chatter about Raji landing here, but it wouldn’t be a bad fit. However, the focus will probably be on getting JaMarcus Russell help with a blocker or a receiving target. Taking OT Andre Smith would be sensible, but taking WR Jeremy Maclin would be sexy. Maclin is fast. Maclin is electric. Note: this is Al Davis picking here.

The Pick: Jeremy Maclin, WR Missouri.

8. Jacksonville

Injuries exposed the Jaguars offensive line in 2008. A. Smith would be a nice addition to the right side of the line, but this is a team that used to rely on stingy defense. They took a large step back last year and need to retool. The CB and LB positions could be spruced up, but having big strong DT’s to enhance everyone else on the unit was always their calling card. John Henderson needs a new running mate and Raji is just the solution.

The Pick: B.J. Raji, DT Boston College

Green Bay

The Packers are another team with serious question marks along the O-line due to a rash of injuries a year ago. Additionally, they are switching defenses and could use some 3-4 tailored personnel to ease the transition. The choice probably comes down to A. Smith or DE/OLB Aaron Maybin. Aaron Rogers will most likely continue to be injury prone if they don’t add some reinforcements at tackle.

The Pick: Andre Smith, OT Alabama

San Francisco

I couldn’t quite figure out why San Fran re-signed former number 1 pick QB Alex Smith, but they probably figured they’d keep him on the roster as a painful reminder NOT to draft a junior quarterback in the first round. With Stafford ruled out they will look for upgrades at OLB or OT. Sound familiar? This pick could easily be flip-flopped with the Green Bay pick. Maybin is too small to play DE in the NFL, but has a lightning quick first step making him one of the top OLB pass-rush prospects in this year’s draft class.

The Pick: Aaron Maybin, DE/OLB Penn. State

Buffalo

The good news for Buffalo fans, the Bills just added an extra first round pick. The bad news, they offloaded Jason Peters to get it, meaning the entire left side of their O-line will be playing for a different team next year. That being considered, they might give Michael Oher a look here. However, their lack luster defensive line play a year ago has most people projecting DE in this slot with Everette Brown being the leading vote getter. I have a hard time seeing Brown as an end and think the Bills will opt for a slightly more stout option. Buffalo has proven over and over they aren’t afraid to reach for players they like, and I have a feeling they turn heads again this year snatching up fast-rising prospect Robert Ayers. Ayers is a late-bloomer with enough size to hold up at DE and some experience at playing inside too.

The Pick: Robert Ayers, DE Tennessee

Denver

Does Denver have their QB of the future or will they select him here? I think they’ll make due with what they have and hold off on hand-picking someone to groom. Instead they must turn their focus to trying to improve their defensive personnel that seems ill-fit for their new 3-4 scheme. DT is at the top of the list, but Raji is gone and no one else is worthy here. Everette Brown, Rey Maualuga, and Tyson Jackson are the next best options at OLB, MLB, and DE respectively. Jackson is the name most frequently slotted to the Broncos here with analysts citing him as the optimal 3-4 DE prospect. However, I think the Broncos are equally weak at all three positions and Maualuga is better at playing middle linebacker than Jackson and Brown are at playing their positions.

The Pick: Rey Maualuga, LB USC

Washington

The Redskins could use some firepower at defensive end to help maximize the benefits of their $100 million Albert Haynesworth investment, but the stir crazy GM/owner duo of Vinny Cerrato and Daniel Snyder appear to have a different bee in their bonnet. Reports during the Jay Cutler trade-a-palooza had the Redskins brass unceremoniously throwing in the towel on Jason Campbell’s future with the hope of acquiring Denver’s disgruntled QB. Was it simply Snyder and Co. thinking Cutler was an upgrade over Campbell and nothing more? Nahh, we know better. Here’s a thought Dan: how about you let the guy play for more than one year with the same coach in the same offense before you give up on him? Fat chance. Unfortunately for Campbell, everyone’s franchise QB golden boy for 2009 has fallen right into the Redskins’ lap.

The Pick Matthew Stafford, QB Georgia

New Orleans

CB has been somewhat of an eternal need for the Saints. They have a short-term solution in place at safety with Darren Sharper and could also use an upgrade at outside linebacker. Their offense is strong but that hasn’t stopped talk of Chris Wells being an option as the perfect compliment to Reggie Bush. Will it be the Saints that take the plunge on DE/OLB E. Brown as he tumbles down the draft board? It makes more sense for them to draft Malcolm Jenkins as a #3 corner that could develop into a top shelf corner or safety.

The Pick: Malcolm Jenkins, CB Ohio State

Houston

Houston is another team with a tiny running back that might look at Wells, but there will be time to fill that need later. Their defense needs a little help. Secondary reinforcements would be nice, but it isn’t available here. E. Brown might convert to a pretty mean strong side linebacker, but Brian Cushing can play all three LB positions if needed. Versatility gets the nod.

The Pick: Brian Cushing, LB USC

San Diego

Sand Diego is said to have very few needs to fill but could use a shot in the arm on the offensive and defensive lines. The linebacking corps and the corners took a step back last year, but if Shawne Merriman and Antonio Cromartie bounce back to ’07 form those concerns should go away. Oher would give them a boost at OT while Tyson Jackson could step in and start at defensive end.

The Pick: Tyson Jackson, DE LSU

N.Y. Jets

The Jets are somewhat difficult to project with first time head coach Rex Ryan now at the helm. They need to find direction at quarterback, but this isn’t the place to find it. It would be a stiff investment to move up to make a run at the top duo and I’m pretty sure they’d be just as well off sticking with Kellen Clemens as if they were to draft Josh Freeman here. Running back could be an option, but they’ll probably wait until later to look for Thomas Jones’ long-term replacement. E. Brown could be their guy if they’re not keen on Vernon Gholston’s future. In the end, I’m going to say they turn to one of their next two weakest positions talent-wise, WR and TE. It is probably a hair early to dip into the second tier of receivers, but Darius Heyward-Bey has the kind of top-end speed and acceleration that tends to mesmerize pro scouts. He’s a raw route runner with just adequate elusiveness, decent size (6’1”), a cocky attitude, and a knack for beating defenders deep. Sounds like Chad Johnson to me. TE Brandon Pettigrew would provide decent value but receiver is a greater need.

The Pick: Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR Maryland

Denver
I wrestled with this one quite a bit. Again, with these new coaching/GM regimes it’s hard to get a feel for how they perceive their talent level at various positions within their new offensive and defensive schemes and how they’ll go about building their roster. With them having a sub-par defense trying to transition to a 3-4, I want to say they should stick with that side of the ball with this pick, but I’m struggling to find a good fit. When all else fails, take the best player available, and it would be hard to pass up the size and speed of Chris Wells. With there roster currently consisting of RB’s J.J. Arrington, Tatum Bell, Correll Buckhalter, Andre Hall, LaMont Jordan, Michael Pittman, P.J. Pope, Ryan Torain, Selvin Young, and Peyton Hillis, I realize this pick is somewhat absurd but hey that’s the name of the game.

The Pick: Chris Wells, RB OSU

Tampa Bay

There has been a lot of Josh Freeman talk here, but I don’t think he fits into the first round picture. Their defense is a full-fledged construction zone as they attempt to transition from lean and fast cover 2 to more of a stout clog-the-middle style defense. DT Peria Jerry has playmaking skills, but isn’t quite the force they’re looking for up front. Instead, I think Everette Brown will be remaining in Florida to make the transition to linebacker. As a defensive end he’s small and would get pushed around. As a 4-3 strong side linebacker his powerful lower body strength and above average pass rush burst give him the flexibility to move around and play well against the run or the pass.

The Pick: Everette Brown, DE/OLB Florida State

Detroit

If they make a quarterback the top choice, the Lions will most likely cross their fingers and hope for an OT here. In this case, their prayers have been answered. Michael Oher’s inconsistency on film is enough to drop him right into their lap. If Oher is not available, they will consider Arizona’s Eben Britton.

The Pick: Michael Oher, OT Ole’ Miss.

Philadelphia

The Eagles have made a miracle transition in one off-season from having two aging free-agent offensive tackles to what at least on paper looks like one of the more solid young tackle duos in the league. Most analysts consider a running back that can fill in for Brian Westbrook to be their next biggest need. I would be all for a Knowshon Moreno selection here, but think they can fill that need in round two if need be. They are light on tight end talent, and Brandon Pettigrew provides a combination of receiving and blocking skills that is unique. They have a tendency to go with the more receiver-like tight ends, and if that’s what they want they will certainly have the chance to pick one up later on. However, I’d be excited to see what a physical presence like Pettigrew can provide for their offense.

The Pick: Brandon Pettigrew, TE Oklahoma State

Minnesota

The Vikings could use some young depth along their line, but are in pretty good shape on defense. They are still scratching their heads trying to figure out who is their quarterback, could use patches at center and RT, and need wide receiver help. They get the most value at this point with Percy Harvin. Concerns about his durability and character drop him to the bottom half of the round, but he has the most playmaking potential in the class. Imagine the cracks he’ll be able to exploit while Adrian Peterson preoccupies defenses each week.

The Pick: Percy Harvin, WR Florida

New England

Some teams draft for value. Some teams draft for need. The Patriots always seem to find great value at the right positions. Even when they seem to reach, the player works out and everyone who criticizes them looks dumb. This year they need to get younger at linebacker and safety. USC OLB Clay Matthews just seems like a New England guy.

The Pick: Clay Matthews, OLB USC

Atlanta

The Falcons have a promising offense, but need to rebuild their D. They more or less purged their linebacking corps, need depth at corner, and are pretty long in tooth at safety. LB James Laurinaitis would be solid and Vontae Davis would be great value at CB, but safety Louis Delmas has Bob Sanders written all over him. Some people might scratch their heads with this pick, but then again I did the same thing when the Colts selected Sanders. Delmas is flying under the radar because he’s undersized and did not play at a big time school, but if he stays healthy plenty of opposing offenses will know him well in the not too distant future. He’s fierce and plays fearless.

The Pick: Louis Delmas, S Western Michigan

Miami

Ted Ginn started to come around last year, but the Dolphins still need more receiving depth to help relieve some pressure off their rushing attack. Consequently, Kenny Britt and Hakeem Nicks are tempting, but there’s too much value to be had elsewhere with Vontae Davis still available. The Dolphins are thin on corner and Davis grades out ten or fifteen picks higher if whoever drafts him is able to rein him in a little.
The Pick: Vontae Davis, CB Illinois

Baltimore

Much like New England, the Ravens have some restocking to do in terms of linebackers and DB’s. However, if anything could be taken from Baltimore’s 2008 season it’s that they won’t be able match up against a good defensive team in the playoffs unless they upgrade their offense. They definitely could use a receiver here, but I think they’ll get more bang for the buck at running back. I get the feeling they aren’t all that happy with Willis McGahee, and Moreno is a steal at this point. He is a tough runner with a solid all-round game, and if he makes it past Philly he’ll be available.

The Pick: Knowshon Moreno, RB Georgia

Indianapolis

Consensus has Indy filling in at either WR or DT here. I’m not sure any of the remaining wide-outs fit their offense too well, and if Peria Jerry is still around I don’t think it’ll take them long to turn in their selection card. Jerry fits snugly in the mold of the light but quick attacking style the Colts crave in their defensive lineman. He won’t anchor the line, but he’ll get to the quarterback.

The Pick: Peria Jerry, DT Ole Miss.

Buffalo

Having given up their left tackle for this pick, the Bills of course need a left tackle and Eben Britton is the next best available. He might take some time to develop, but he at least gives them some direction along their line.

The Pick: Eben Britton, OT Arizona

N.Y. Giants

The Giants were aggressive in free-agency locking up Brandon Jacobs with the franchise tag and pouring money into their defensive line. It has been well-documented their offense wasn’t the same without their number one receiver last year, but unless they trade for a veteran they probably aren’t going to fill the Burress void now as anyone they draft here would probably be a couple years away from contributing. Their roster is solid enough for them to have flexibility, and they have always had a soft spot for pass rushers. I think they’ll go with Larry English or Connor Barwin with the intent at developing an outside linebacker.

The Pick: Larry English, DE/OLB Northern Illinois

Tennessee

As usual, the Titans are lacking a go-to target in the passing game. They haven’t been overzealous to address that need with first round draft picks in the recent past, so we’ll go ahead and assume they won’t start now. They could use a DT to replace the Haynesworth void, but they don’t have many options for that here. They are better off strengthening depth at corner or linebacker with pint-sized Connecticut CB Darius Butler or polished defensive captain in the making James Laurinaitis. Laurinaitus is a good find at the end of the first round as someone that can be plugged in to provide a stable force in the middle of their defense.

The Pick: James Laurinaitis, MLB OSU

Arizona

I don’t know if I’ve seen a mock draft where Arizona wasn’t projected to take a running back. Unless they acquire one in a potential Anquan Boldin trade, I’ll say they go ahead and go RB. Moreno and Wells are gone so that leaves Connecticut’s Donald Brown.

The Pick: Donald Brown, RB Connecticut

Pittsburgh

The defending champs are in a position to pick the best player available, but chances are they take advantage of the strong top tier of centers to sure up the middle of their offensive line. Alex Mack is for the most part considered the best of the group, but Eric Wood is a little more physical. For a team that hangs their hat on a physical rushing attack, Wood is their man.

The Pick: Eric Wood, Louisville

Sneaky Good?

Low Budget or Low Profile:

Just about one month out and the draft landscape is filling in significantly. Pro days are almost over and the combine and free-agency have made imprints on rankings and mock drafts everywhere. At first glance, the 2009 draft class appears sub-par compared to previous years. In general, the elite prospects aren’t quite as strong. I would compare the top ten players in this class to prospects in the five to fifteen range of most other drafts. At quarterback, typically the heart of a given draft class, there are more concerns with the best players in this year’s crop than usual and the position has almost no depth behind the top three prospects. Yet, when you dig deeper the 2009 class appears to be flying under the radar. While it is weak as far as quarterbacks, top-end corners, guards, and ILB’s the overall depth is pretty solid if not above average. Tight end, center, wide receiver, and running back all seem to be especially strong.

Not only does this tight end class boast a guy at the top with better blocking skills than anyone has seen from a college tight end in years in Brandon Pettigrew, but the number of athletic pass-catching types behind him is ridiculous. Shawn Nelson (Southern Miss), Jared Cook (South Carolina), James Casey (Rice), Travis Beckum (Wisconsin), Chase Coffman (Missouri), Cornelius Ingram (Florida); the list goes on and on and that’s leaving out players with day 2 talent. Last year there weren’t any WR’s in the first round. This year not only could there be five or six including two in the top 10, but the later rounds are littered with solid players as well. Kenny Britt (Rutgers) and Brian Robiskie (Ohio St.) probably will go in round 2. Brandon Tate (North Carolina), Juaquin Iglesias (Oklahoma), and Mohamed Massaquoi (Georgia) have round 3 potential, while Derrick Williams (Penn St.), Demetrius Byrd (Oregon), and Mike Thomas (Arizona) could last to round 4. Looking to take a flyer? How about 6’6” Ramses Barden from Cal-Poly in round 6 or 7? Who knows where Pat White (West Virginia) fits in and I’m just hitting the highlights here.

Running back is interesting because the depth is just as strong, but league-wide it is recognized as the easiest position to transition players from college to the pro’s. Teams realize they can find a starting running back on day 2 and it seems to have really influenced the draft stock of the top-end players. Chris Wells is easily in the top ten talent-wise in this draft class. His name has started to heat up lately, but until now he has hovered in the 20 to 31 range in mock drafts. Wells, Knowshon Moreno, and Connecticut’s Donald Brown should all go in the first round, but there are a lot of solid players to be had from there. Looking for a big back in the second round? Think Shonn Green (Iowa) or Glenn Coffee (Alabama). Need someone smaller with some quickness? Go with LeSean McCoy (Pittsburgh) or Jeremiah Johnson (Oregon). Day 2 is covered as well. Teams can look to Andre Brown (NC State) and Rashad Jennings (Liberty) for power or Cedric Peerman (Virginia) and Kory Sheets (Purdue) for speed. Sprinkle in Javon Ringer (Michigan State), Mike Goodson (Texas A&M), James Davis (Clemson), P.J. Hill (Wisconsin), and Ian Johnson (Boise St.) and there are options scattered all the way through the seventh round. I’m not saying all these guys are going to be productive pro players, but history has proven any one of them could be the next Terrell Davis.

The defensive side of the ball isn’t quite as staggering, but there are still a lot of intriguing players available. There are almost no top-tier defensive backs, but there could be some decent finds after the first round (more on that later during Bengals talk). The USC boys at OLB will go in the 15 to 25 range while DE/OLB hybrids Connor Barwin (Go Cats!) and Larry English (Northern Illinois) probably will land somewhere in the bottom of the first round. From there, there is a lot of value if the right player gets drafted into the right system. In the second round, Utah’s blue-collar but undersized Paul Kruger and an OLB coming out of Virginia’s 3-4 system, Clint Sintim, will look to find homes. On day 2, Tyrone McKenzie is a player trying to prove his outstanding production at mid-major school South Florida will translate to the NFL, Marcus Freeman could wind up a solid stand-in on the weak side for somebody, Cody Brown (Connecticut) is a 243 lb DE who needs to transition to linebacker, and amazingly Kaluka Maiava will look to be the fourth USC linebacker selected. Having posted the fastest DE 40 time at the combine, Richmond’s Lawerence Sidbury might be the sleeper of the bunch. An unpolished poor man’s Brian Orakpo, he has also crept into second round discussions. Michael Johnson (Georgia Tech) is a wild card with first round physical abilities and third round intangibles who probably winds up coming off the board at the end of the first. DE’s David Veikune (Hawaii) and Kyle Moore (USC) are additional mid-round prospects to watch out for. Inside, Peria Jerry is a 4-3 DT that won’t make it out of the first round. Evander Hood (Missouri) and Ron Brace (Boston College) both hope to make the second round, while Sen’Derrick Marks (Auburn) and Fili Moala (USC) represent solid day 2 talent. Teams looking for a 3-4 defensive end should consider the Youtube phenom with DE and DT experience from San Jose St., Jarron Gilbert.

All in all, the 2009 class does not have as much blue-chip talent as normal, but its extensive depth should have clubs finding starters much deeper into the draft. It will be interesting to see how things unfold.

Mockin’ It Up:

1. Detroit:

While free agency and the combine have brought the draft picture into focus quite a bit, there is still some ambiguity as to how the Lions will shape the start of round one with their first pick. The whole world is still mocking Mathew Stafford as the top pick while Detroit coaches and front office members continue to take the obligatory hard-line stance they haven’t made up their minds yet. Still the favorite, draft pundits contend Stafford has all the tools, and needing a long-term answer at QB Detroit won’t be able to pass him up. I agree, but keep thinking back to my impressions while watching Stafford’s Georgia Bulldogs face off against Michigan State in the Capital One Bowl. He made some good throws, but overall it just looked like he was a long way from being ready for the NFL. Any time the Spartan defense was able to apply even the slightest amount of pressure the result was a broken play. Bad throw one play. Bad decision the next. If his teammates didn’t give him time or get wide open, Stafford showed very little ability to make things happen on his own. His supporters will say it’s perfectly okay for him to sit his first year, but I’m thinking he needs two or three. We’re talking Aaron Rodgers territory. That kind of timeline just doesn’t jive with what is expected from a number one overall pick. Maybe it was just one game and the guy was rusty, but because not many people are predicting anyone besides Stafford number one, we’ll pretend Lions’ scouts take my side and leave grooming the Georgia QB as someone else’s problem.

That leaves Aaron Curry and Jason Smith. Curry is considered the best player in the draft right now, but whether or not he’s the best prospect is arguable. High-ceiling vs. low floor debates aside, I’m not sure that selecting Curry number one overall is even economically feasible. First off, Detroit just pulled the trigger on a trade with Seattle for star linebacker Julian Peterson. Interestingly enough, the Seahawks most likely made the deal to alleviate the financial strain of having big contracts at all three linebacker slots between Peterson, franchised player Leroy Hill, and all-pro Lofa Tatupu. Acquiring Peterson gives the Lions a second well-paid linebacker along with the team’s top defensive player and former first round pick, Ernie Sims. Sims could be sent packing to pave the way for a Curry selection but I see that as a long shot at this point. Even if you don’t take into account other players on their roster, the minimum contract typically tied to the number one overall pick would vault Curry to the top of the league-wide linebacker salary food chain with some room to spare. I think Curry is almost guaranteed to be a solid player that will probably make a couple of pro-bowls, but it’s hard to commit number one draft pick salary cap resources to a linebacker unless you think the guy is the second coming of Lawrence Taylor. Unless Lions negotiators convince Curry to sign for a more sensible contract, I don’t think he’ll end up in Detroit. By process of elimination we’re down to Jason Smith. While not as talented as the past couple top OT’s, he’s a hard working kid with good character. If drafting Stafford first overall is like playing Russian roulette and drafting Curry is like paying for a Porsche and getting a Mustang, then drafting Jason Smith is the equivalent of placing an all-in bet with 2-1 odds of winning. It’s not the ideal situation when you’re talking about $30 million, but the Lions are just going to have to make the best of a bad situation by taking a calculated risk on the OT from Baylor.
The Pick: Jason Smith, OT Baylor

2. St. Louis

Continuing on with this Stafford-doesn’t-get-drafted-first exercise, the Rams are up next. Ironically, Aaron Curry might actually be just the kind of player St. Louis needs to nudge their chronically poor defense into the land of respectability. Unfortunately, they can’t wait to start rebuilding their O-line any longer. They’ve cut ties with Orlando pace and even stop-gap free agents like Khalif Barnes and Tre Thomas have been scooped up off the free-agent market. There are two tackles most people feel pretty comfortable slotting into the top five, so picking second it is impossible for the Rams to have their LT of the future snatched from underneath their nose like last year. Eugene Monroe might not have scored as well as Jason Smith on the bubbly personality portion of the combine, but then again I’m pretty sure it’s okay for an offensive lineman not to be Mr. Congeniality. He isn’t going to overpower people at the next level but is generally considered a more well-rounded blocker right now than Smith. The Rams finally get their heir apparent to anchor their left side, can leave Alex Barron at RT, and should plan on adding a guard later on. If they don’t love Monroe, don’t rule out Michael Crabtree here.
The Pick: Eugene Monroe, OT Virginia

3. Kansas City

New G.M. Scott Pioli hacked off a major chunk of the uncertainty surrounding the K.C. roster by bringing in Matt Cassell to helm the offense for the foreseeable future. I don’t feel as warm and fuzzy about Cassell as most, but Pioli certainly is in as good of a position as anyone to make that call. With the trade, their list of needs shrinks to OLB, OL, DE, and depth at CB. Certainly they could stand to upgrade in other spots and have to deal with disgruntled stars at TE and RB, but in general they need to develop a linebacking corps and/or D-line capable improving their abysmal 2008 sack total and finish rebuilding their offensive line. So far, the top two OT’s are gone and it’s way too early to start talking about the enigmatic Andre Smith and the inconsistent Michael Oher. The defensive end position of the 3-4 defense variety also shouldn’t factor into any top five discussions. That leaves OLB. Fortunately for the Chiefs there happens to be one, highly regarded by almost everyone, ripe for the picking. It seems ridiculous that drafting Curry number one overall could be considered almost financially unfathomable while drafting him third is a no-brainer, but that’s the nature of the beast. It is a delicate balance trying to fit the out of whack rookie salary structure into the fragile financial framework of a franchise. I might be over-weighting the problem of top pick salaries to some extent, but it is definitely an area that needs reform. Anyway, acquiring Mike Vrabel gives K.C. the flexibility to look elsewhere should one of the top OT’s be available, but I think Curry is a shoe-in.
The Pick: Aaron Curry, LB Wake Forest


4. Seattle

If Stafford actually doesn’t go number 1, it will be interesting to see if Seattle gives him a look with Matt Hasselbeck starting to show some wear and tear. In the end, Seattle probably sees themselves as not that far from contending and will go with a player they think can contribute now. The trendy pick for the Seahawks in the mock draft world these days is Boston College DT B.J. Raji. However, the recent trade sending DT Cory Redding from Detroit to Seattle combined with the previous free agency signing of DT Colin Cole shakes things up a bit. Monroe would make an awfully nice insurance policy for the aging Walter Jones, and will draw consideration if available. That brings us back to where most people started with Seattle: Michael Crabtree. The buzz on Crabtree has settled since he showed up at the combine measuring 6’1” with a fractured foot. A lot of people are dropping him in the 7 to 10 range. Personally, if that happens the team that eventually snags him should be doing back flips. Regardless of injury status he’s still the top offensive player in the draft. The Larry Fitzgerald comparisons that floated around early on are a little far-fetched, but you’re still talking about a hard-working kid with loads of talent that is going to make a lot of catches in the NFL. Think more along the lines of a bigger stronger version of Marvin Harrison.

The Pick: Michael Crabtree, WR Texas Tech

5. Cleveland

What’s on tap for the Brownies in their first draft under the direction of the ManGenius? Cleveland’s new Coach/GM combo, so far, have put together a solid off-season seemingly mimicking what Miami was able to accomplish last year. Step one: offload players that might resist drinking the cool-aid of a new regime. Not only did the Browns potentially avoid future headaches with the Kellen Winslow trade, but they managed to extract pretty decent value from Tampa obtaining a 2nd round pick and a 2010 5th rounder. Step two: take an active approach to free-agency. The keys here: don’t overestimate player value and don’t over commit resources. Endless teams (and analysts for that matter) fall into the trap that different means improvement. Year after year mid-level free agents sign for three or four million dollars to plug holes they just aren’t capable of filling. Sure sometimes players develop or excel in a new system, but nine times out of ten an average player on one team is still going to be an average player on a new team. At the same time, bringing in high-level players is often inefficient and limits roster depth. The 2008 Browns allocated huge chunks of salary and draft resources to make a big splash bringing in players like Shaun Rogers, Corey Williams, and Donte Stallworth. The season went south for various reasons, and the team is left trying to recover from the void of having added little to no young talent due to lack of draft picks. Go after the role players to minimize having to draft players based on position then pick the best players available to come in and compete with or develop behind the veterans. Mangini has started to make the team his hand-picking players, several from his old team, to bridge gaps at positions such as TE and MLB. Additionally they’ve added depth along their already solid offensive and defensive lines with DT C.J. Mosley and O-linemen John St. Clair and Floyd Womack. The biggest hiccup has been Mangini reportedly getting off on the wrong foot with Rogers, his all-pro NT. After all the moves Cleveland’s biggest priorities in the draft will be to look for DB help for their average secondary and find someone who can juice up the pass rush, preferably an outside linebacker. It isn’t likely they’ll go after a corner in round 1 barring a trade-down as neither Malcolm Jenkins nor Vontae Davis have done enough to warrant the price tag of top ten status. Cleveland could flirt with the idea of Raji or Crabtree, especially if they decide they have to get rid of Rogers or Braylon Edwards, but unless they feel they don’t have any other options I think they resist the temptation. Mangini appeared to whiff (time will tell) on picking the dynamic pass-rushing catalyst critical to his 3-4 defense in last year’s draft with Vernon Gholston. He could be a little gun shy searching for the same type of player in ’09, but the guy comes off a bit too arrogant for me to think last year has any effect on how he is thinking today. I think he’s fallen in love with one of the hybrid DE’s and won’t hesitate to pull the trigger.

The Pick: Brian Orakpo, DE/OLB Texas

6. Cincinnati

Closing in on one month out and the Bengals are sitting in an interesting spot. Most of the personnel question marks that swirled heading into the off-season have been answered and a few more have been raised.

Keeping Houshmandzadah probably would have made a lot of people feel better, but in the end I think they’re getting out at the right time. The guy had hamstring problems early in his career. They started to crop up again last year, and he wasn’t exactly the picture of durability before that. It is a blow losing their most consistent offensive player, but they’ve managed to sign on a capable replacement in former Jet Laveranues Coles. I’m curious to see how Coles fits into the offense. He hasn’t been as productive as Housmandzadah in recent years but has plenty of ability and a little bit of a different skill set than T.J. featuring more downfield potential. Time will tell. I think both receivers can still be productive. It will just be a mater of which 30+ year old veteran will be able to stay healthy. Stacy Andrews deciding to head east to block on the same line as his brother leaves another sizeable void in the offense. I see Andrews’ departure just as he started to blossom as disappointing, but probably inevitable. They tried for three years to reach a long-term agreement with him and were unsuccessful. They were going to have to overpay to keep him. Besides, bad knee injuries for offensive lineman are scary. I’m not sure why, but everyone in Philadelphia seems to be penciling Andrews in as their opening day Jon Runyan replacement. Hopefully he bounces back, but I have a hard time seeing it happen without at least a trip to the PUP.

It wasn’t all subtractions in free agency. As mentioned, the Coles signing provides a big boost for the receiving corps. Assuming Ocho Cinco bounces back and stays away from the edge of the cliffs of insanity he seems to have been tip-toeing along the last two years and Chris Henry stays out of prison, the Bengals have pretty solid number one, two, and three receivers. Throw in positive reports regarding strides taken by ’08 draft picks Jerome Simpson and Andre Caldwell and the unit looks miles ahead of where it was last year. The running back situation has been solidified with the decision to reward Cedric Benson with another contract after a strong finish to the season. Off the top of my head, I think they would have been hard pressed to come up with a better option for a starting RB going into 2009. Hopefully Benson continues his career turn around and remains a positive locker room contributor. Another player signed off the street that turned some heads in the second half of last season was safety Chris Crocker. Retaining Crocker was a positive step towards building on the defensive momentum generated in their last five games. Throw in a backup RB, a backup QB, and a franchise tag to keep their kicker and I’d say the Cincinnati front office held their own this off-season.

Marvin Lewis has indicated they would like to add one or two more free agents, but unless they part ways with a well-paid veteran like Ocho Cinco or Levi Jones I’m not sure they can spend more than $1 to $3 million. How does that frame up the draft picture? Draft discussion in Cincinnati has to start with the O-line. It’s anyone’s guess what the starting offensive line is going to look like and that kind of uncertainty doesn’t bode well for a line that struggled to run block and pass protect in 2008. Just about everyone not named Marvin Lewis has seemingly written off Jones. Whether or not they’re planning on parting ways (via trade or straight up release) with their once reliable LT, Lewis insists that, right now, Jones is the starter on the left side. Whitworth could be the replacement at LT, leaving a whole at LG. Anthony Collins showed signs he was up for the task but that leaves Scott Kooistra all by his lonesome vying for the RT spot and I don’t think anyone would be keen on that scenario. To make matters worse, it’s looking more and more like coaches plan to fill the center vacancy with either of the inexperienced youngsters Dan Santuci or Kyle Cook. In that case it makes since to leave a smart experienced guard like Whitworth right in place. It isn’t hard to see why OT has been the most common position slotted to the Bengals in mock drafts. Despite fears that the offense can’t be effective without adding a top ten talent on draft day, I don’t think it’s going to happen. Four of the five teams picking ahead of them have offensive line needs making it likely both J. Smith and Monroe won’t last. Oher has fallen to 15 to 25 status. A. Smith is exactly what they need (mauling LT with strong RT potential) but he’s still a gamble at 6 having thoroughly proven how unprepared he is to become a professional. I think they have to try to find an OT/G combo guy for the right price to add depth while drafting two to three linemen after the first round as insurance in case Jones doesn’t bounce back or Whitworth has to play tackle. If they pass on OT in round 1, they have some options later. OT’s Eben Britton (Arizona) and William Beaty (Connecticut) are solid second round talents, but will probably be gone by the end of the first round as teams tend to overdraft on tackles (especially at the end of the first round). Jamon Meredith (South Carolina) is an option, but the top guard who also has tackle experience, Adrew Levitre (Oregon State), might be a better fit. Oklahoma players Phil Loadholt and Duke Robinson should enter into the day 2 equation. Considering the lack of experience at center, I wouldn’t mind seeing the Bengals go that direction at the top of round two as at least one of the top trio of Alex Mack (California), Max Unger (Oregon), and Eric Wood (Louisville) should be available.

Across the rest of the offense it’s not time to look for a new quarterback yet. As mentioned above, the receiving corps looks solid right now. Crabtree would be interesting. It would be tough to pass up on the closest thing to a sure all-pro the 2009 class has to offer, but it would create a log jam at receiver when they could use help elsewhere. If they offload Ocho Cino, I might go as far as to say I’d welcome the pick. Otherwise I’m not sure they go receiver at any point in the 2009 draft. A young running back will probably be added at some point, but the Benson and Dede Dorsey signings along with the bottomless depth available at the position allow that pick to be put off until the second day. The only fullback on the roster is a converted tight end. One will probably be added, but hopefully coaches find a free agent they like rather than using a pick to bring somebody in.

On the other side of the ball, you have to wonder where Mike Zimmer is going squeeze about ten more sacks out of his defense. They need a guy that can be consistently disruptive causing sleepless nights for opposing offensive coordinators everywhere. Unfortunately, that type of player doesn’t grow on trees. As Pittsburgh has proven over and over again, the way to do it is draft depth into all positions and every once in a while catch lighting a bottle a la James Harrison.

While the starters are set at cornerback, the Bengals could use an upgrade in talent at the number 3 and 4 slots. Undersized corners Darius Butler (Connecticut) and Alphonso Smith (Wake Forest) have enough talent to slip into the bottom of round 1 but would make excellent value at the top of round 2. Once thought to be one of the top corners in the class based off in-game performances, Vanderbilt’s D.J. Moore has slipped due to poor showings at workouts during position drills. Moore along with Sean Smith (Utah), and Jarius Byrd (Oregon) would be intriguing picks if they manage to fall into the third round. For the balance of day two, some analysts have shown a lot of curiosity towards the athleticism of Ohio St.’s Donald Washington. Other names to watch out for are Coye Francies (San Jose St.) and Cary Harris (USC) in round 4, Victor Harris (Virginia tech) in round 5, Mike Mickens (Go Cats!) and Asher Allen (Georgia) in round 6, and Sherrod Martin (Troy) in the round 7/free agent range.

As long as Crocker continues to play at a high level, the Bengals should be set at safety. They’ve kicked around the idea of bringing in Roy Williams. It would be interesting, but they’d have to free up some cap room and I’m afraid which other player at the position it would squeeze off the roster.

While the linebacker positions are not a glaring need, it is an area that could be upgraded. I’m excited to see what Keith Rivers brings to the table in year two on the weak side. It never hurts to have depth, but rather than dipping into the draft they’d be better served making sure they bring back the already proven Brandon Johnson, a restricted free agent. Improbably, Dhani Jones is still locked in as the leader in the middle of the unit. He has played admirably for two years, but how long will it last and who’s the backup? Rey Maualuga doesn’t appear to be an option in the first round at this point. Scouts have had lots of time to pick apart his game tape and seem to be forgetting him stampeding with a ferocity that few human beings can match into holes to ruin the days of many running backs. They see Maualuga plunging into the wrong holes now and then and have started to wonder whether he has the speed and fluidity to hold up in coverage. Realistically, I don’t think he falls outside the top 18 as some predict, but he’s not going to factor in at 6. There isn’t a whole lot of depth at interior linebacker, so unless they like Jason Phillips (TCU) or Jasper Brinkley (South Carolina) in round 3 or 4, they should just make a guess at somebody they think can play special teams in the fourth or fifth round and hope for the best.

At strong side, Rashard Jeanty is a solid performer who plays hurt. As a restricted free agent, it would be nice to find someone with a little more punch and keep Jeanty around as the ideal backup. Curry will be gone so it comes down to whether they will once again try to convert an undersized defensive end into a playmaking, quarterback devouring outside linebacker. To me it stings to have to draft David Pollack again in the first round, but if they decide to give it a shot it boils down to the top three pass rushers: Orakpo, Aaron Maybin, and Everette Brown. There seems to be a select minority enamored enough with Brown to consider him top-5-worthy. He is tough to gage because physically he’s more of a 18 to 25 guy, but people see his work ethic and pass-rushing production playing in a BCS conference and shovel him to the top half of the round. He’s a little on the short side and most highlights I’ve seen show him simply running around the edge against slow college OT’s. I slot him as a 13 to 18 prospect and hope the Bengals avoid him. He feels a little too much like Renard Wilson (smallish FSU defensive end drafted by the Bengals to play linebacker for those of you not painfully familiar with the misery of Cinncianti fans in the 90’s). In the 250 lb range, Maybin is the lightest of the three but is considered the best pass rusher with an extremely quick first step. He would almost definitely have to play linebacker, but his skill set suggests keeping him close to the line of scrimmage is best. I say leave him for the 3-4 teams in the 8 to 13 pick range. Orakpo is the best put together physically and at 260-ish lbs is big enough to play defensive end in a 4-3. He has some durability flags but overall has the athleticism, intangibles, and college resume to come off the board between picks 5 and 10. If Cincy thinks his pass rush skills translate to the pro level it’s a tough call where he fits in. Transitioning Orakpo to OLB, although risky, looks like the natural fit as they already have a lot of money tied up in light-weight DE’s Robert Geathers and Antwan Odom. The other option might be to move Geathers to OLB, a role he filled somewhat adequately on an emergency basis two years ago. Regardless, it’s a mute point if Orakpo doesn’t last past Cleveland.

That brings us to interior defensive line. With the young duo of Donata Peko and Pat Sims, for once it looks like the Bengals might be half-way towards putting a defensive line on the field that doesn’t resemble swiss-cheese. It’s a good start, but if they want to outlast the Steelers over the course of a season and have any kind of shot in they playoffs they have to build a solid stable of big bodies to rotate through the middle of their line. Enter Boston College DT B.J. Raji. He is big and strong and possesses some ability to create havoc. Think of Raji as the slightest of cuts below the type of prospect Haloti Ngata was a few years ago. I think he might be just what they need to upgrade the defensive line from being average with potential to being dangerous. Plug a 330 lb hammer in the middle, keep him fresh with Sims and big man Shirley, and give people hell for 60 minutes. Like everyone, he doesn’t come without question marks. Many wonder how he’ll handle his weight and point to his academic suspension his junior year. Despite the suspension he came back as a senior and had a standout year. His weight has been stable throughout the draft process, and people came away from the Senior Bowl, the combine, and his pro day with good impressions. Not to mention, in this projection I’m not sure the Bengals have any other options here besides Andre Smith, whose own question marks make Raji’s look minuscule. It is possible that if QB Mark Sanchez becomes a hot commodity around the sixth pick, they might have the opportunity to trade back, but unless the deal is sweet I say seize the opportunity to potentially fix what has been broken for years.

The Pick: B.J. Raji, DT Boston College