Monday, July 1, 2013

Still Slapping Singles


Another draft is in the books.  Why not kick off my reaction with another baseball metaphor (Apparently that is my go-to move)? Last year, my take was the Bengals didn’t hit a home run with their draft, but they did smack a line shot into left field. 2013 turned out to be more of the same for Marvin Lewis and the scouting staff. Actually, these kind of results have turned into Cincinnati's signature and are pretty much the root of what has turned around the team over the last five years. Don't try to swing for the fences.  Don't try to do it all in one draft. Just keep building methodically, pick by pick. Let the draft come to you. At first I was a little disappointed with their first two days of picks. I thought with that extra second rounder they really had a chance to land a defensive player or two capable of contributing this year while utilizing this draft classes' depth to still address some of the offensive concerns later on. I don't think I was wrong, but as I've had time to digest how things played out, I'm not so sure I don't like it better their way. Here’s my take on how things shook out:.  

Round 1: Tyler Eifert, TE, ND
As the Bengals sat on the clock at pick 21, I found myself rifling through the defensive prospects in my head. "Sharrif Floyd is still on the board??? Do they snatch up the value? Never mind that he plays the position they least need. How about Bjoern Werner? Tank Carradine? Alec Ogletree? Maybe reach for one of the safeties, Elam or Cyprien?" The answer of no, no, no, no, no, and no was a little deflating at first. Safety was their biggest need, but less specifically the role that was missing was an anchor for the back seven of the defense. It'd be nice if they found it in the form of a two-way tackling machine of a safety that can cover tight ends, but the right linebacker would have worked too. As I’ve called it before, they needed a D-rock. Yet, after mulling it over maybe that wasn't their biggest need. The defense ranked in the top ten last year. The offense didn't crack the top 20, couldn't convert on third down, and was more than iffy in the red zone. Unfortunately, it wasn't real clear how exactly they could upgrade the offense. Dalton has to develop, but they weren't going to solve that with the 21st pick. The line is in good shape. A faster running back would help, but that could wait. Sanu, Jones, and Hawkins have flashed enough that tabbing a WR early didn't make much sense. Then Tyler Eifert fell right into their laps. All of a sudden, all of the versatile two tight end formations I dreamt of when they picked Orson Charles last year became more realistic. The'll line him up in-line. They'll split him out wide. They'll line him up in the slot. Hopefully, Eifert can bring everything that Gresham has struggled to deliver: A reliable matchup nightmare that can routinely snag 5 to 8 yards on second down while doubling as a constant threat down the seam. Yes, Gresham has made two pro bowls in his first three years, but with his wet-pants playoff performance against Houston still fresh in our minds, it's hard to be too enthusiastic about him anymore. You know that feeling you get when you make yourself a giant bowl of cereal and then right before you eat it you get a phone call and ten minutes later when you hang up all you're left with is gritty brownish milk and soggy flakes? That's what it feels like to have invested a first round pick in Jermaine Gresham. I wouldn't call him a bust, but when you try to feature him as the number two target in your offense in year three and he shrinks, you're not getting enough out of your investment. Teams trolling for tight ends in the first round are hoping for players that are too physical to be covered by corners and too fast to be covered by safeties. At this point, Gresham is not that guy. Ask Glover Quinn. So what is Eifert? If he is what we think he is he could be the antidote for the offense; the legit second option that takes just enough pressure off Gresham, Sanu, Jones, and Hawkins to let everyone flourish. The red zone potential might be his biggest upside. Imagine Green split on one side and Eifert on the other. If defenses don’t give help on both sidelines, they pay. If they do, run the ball down their throats. Maybe even throw Dennis Roland in there at TE just to pack a little extra punch. Long story short, I think they made the right pick.

Round 2: Giovani Bernard, RB North Carolina
This pick could turn out to be crucial for the franchise. It's either going to dovetail perfectly with their first pick to fill the offense’s final need or it is going to be a constant sore spot as we agonize over the guys they could have taken in this slot. That's the risk of drafting need over value. In fairness, I think the Bengals truly believe they did draft value. I was thinking Bernard was a good safety valve option in the third round for their RB need if they missed out on Johnathan Franklin at the end of the second. The Bengals snatched up Bernard as the first RB off the board and everyone passed on Franklin until the fourth round so what do I know? Bernard had some hype heading into last season, but after he flew under the radar throughout the pre-draft process I hestitated to be too optimistic about him as a prospect. At the same time, no one really questioned him coming off the board as the top RB early in the second round. It seemed odd, but I don’t think anyone took exception to the pick because it looks like such a good marriage. The Bengals needed a quick receiving back and they drafted one. My favorite part about this pick was the Bengals' use of free agency to complement the draft prior to the draft taking place. Much like last year’s one-year-deal with Pat Sims at DT, Bernard Scott was retained as insurance for a pick that hadn’t happened yet. If the rookie goes down or isn't ready, they have a backup plan in place. I don’t like Scott any more as the RB2, but as a hungry player with a couple of years left in the tank scratching and clawing to hang onto his career and turn into something more than a “what might have been” backup, he fits like a glove.

Round 2: Margus Hunt, DE SMU
I was on board with this pick right away. Safety and linebacker were the more obvious needs, but a developmental DE still makes a lot of sense. Michael Johnson and Carlos Dunlap are both free agents next year, and Robert Geathers and Wallace Gillberry are rotational guys. Defensive end is a strength right now, but they probably need to replace three of those four players in the next two years for economic and performance reasons. Value-wise, I thought they might go DE with one of their first two picks with the likes of Werner or Caradine. Instead, they charged some life into the offense and still managed to grab a high ceiling DE to groom. My favorite quote about Hunt was off of Bengals.com during rookie minicamps when someone commented that when Hunt got into his stance they saw muscles they didn't even know existed. If nothing else hopefully his freakish ability to block field goals translates to the pros. I think in three years he'll be pretty good (especially if Zimmer sticks around that long). And, maybe best of all, for the first time in a while Bengals fans now have a player they can cheer for and do that thing where people sound like they are booing but really they are saying a player's name: "Hoooooont!" (or at least that's how I imagine you pronounce Hunt's name in Estonian).

Round 3: Shawn Williams S Georgia
At the end of day two, the Bengals finally got around to picking a safety. The phrase "find someone to play next to Reggie Nelson" has almost become cliché. The problem with waiting this long is they are still pretty vulnerable at the position. Has anybody thought about what happens if Nelson goes down or tails off talent wise? Yikes. Somebody get Chris Crocker a truckload of Icy Hot. I don't really think George Iioka, Robert Sands, and Taylor Mays will be much more than special teamers. We'll see. Apparently they know something we don't know because right now it looks like they are grabbing a handful of screws out of a toolbox and are crossing their fingers one of them fits. It's hard to fault the Bengals though.  They stuck to their patient draft style and none of the top safeties fell to them. Vicarro and Reid went ahead of pick 21 (despite reports implying otherwise, I'm not sure the Bengals would've gone for Reid anyway. San Fran tends to reach for their favorite prospects. Sometimes it works...AldonSmith. And sometimes it doesn't... A.J. Jenkins). Elam or Cyprien would've been stretches at 21 but didn’t last to 37. There was safety depth in this draft. They could afford to wait and they did. But did they pick the right guy? Pre-draft I heard more chatter talking up guys like Phillip Thomas, Shamarko Thomas, and even Duke Williams. All came off the board within the next twenty picks after Cincinnati selected Shawn Williams. In contrast, I didn't hear much at all about Shawn Williams pre-draft. That said, when I started to read up on him I got the feeling that he might be a good fit for what the back end of the defense needs. He is a tough hitter with a solid build that led Georgia in tackles as a junior and finished second as a senior. Several write-ups tagged him as a better football player than an athlete. His interception numbers dipped to 0 as a senior and his ability to cover slot receivers and tight ends has been questioned. He excelled in a top level SEC defense and ran a 4.42 40 yard dash. I'm not really worried about the athleticism. The cover skills might need some polish but they should be able to limp through those growing pains with Nelson and the depth at corner picking up the slack. The attitude is what I really like. The defensive backfield needs some bite to it and Williams appears capable of providing it. The Bengals still lack a backup plan at free safety, but if they've managed to fill the strong safety void without having to cough up a first or second rounder, this pick could be a crucial piece to the roster.

The Rest:
One thing that keeps bouncing around my head is the number ten, as in the Bengals selected ten players in this draft. It's hard to imagine ten spots available on their roster. They did the right thing with their day three picks: backup plan at weak side linebacker, Brian Leonard-esque RB, solid developmental receiver, and a herd of beefy offensive line depth. I wouldn't make any changes positionally, but the big question is whether more than one or two of these guys can make the team. In that sense you might consider these picks a waste of resources. Teams like New England tend to find ways to trade picks for extra picks in future years. The Bengals have a different strategy. They aren't worried about who they might have to cut. Instead they try to build the strongest 73 man roster possible. They are going to lose players in training camp and they've chosen to use every last draft pick to make sure they have the depth to absorb it. It feels a little awkward, but in the end, I think it's the right thing to do. So what does it all mean? As is the buzz kill of all draft seasons, we won't know for another two to five years. Until then, all we can do is speculate. Overall, the Bengals' roster looks strong. They still are thin on proven safety talent, and the ability of the linebacking corps to hold up reasonably in pass coverage is still a question mark. However, it’s important not to forget the four biggest boxes on just about every NFL general manager’s checklist for building a contender: 1.) Quarterback 2.) offensive line 3.) defensive line 4.) offensive weapons. The Bengals have checked all four boxes (Dalton has his doubters, but I’ll give him year three before I start getting anxious) and are in good enough shape everywhere else that they've been able to refine and sustain those important roles as strengths. Is it enough? Can Cincinnati finally step up and play with the big boys? I'm not sure.  All I know is, Bengals fans used to enter each season with false hope, but now each year the hope gets more and more real. The results on the field show it. Analysts are commenting about it. Say what you want about the frugality of the Brown family or Marvin Lewis’ skills as a game coach, but you have to tip your cap to what this regime is doing each offseason. The bases are loaded. The Bengals still trail by one run, but the top of the order is coming up and when the pitches start flying in 2013 you can bet the boys in Orange and Black will be swinging. Maybe this time they will knock one out of the park.