The 2016 season has begun! Time to check in with some predictions for the year. I didn't meet the Thursday kickoff deadline for this post, but I figured I'd try to at least get my thoughts on record before the Sunday madness kicks off tomorrow. I could probably ramble on with takes all day, but I'll try to keep this brief.
AFC North:
Pittsburgh 10-6
It feels like it is shaping up as a Murphy's Law season for the Steelers (or maybe that's wishful thinking). But with Jason Voorhees at quarterback, I'm not sure all of the injuries and suspensions in the world can stop them. I'm still picking them to win the division.
Baltimore 9-7
On the surface Baltimore looks like a team with too many holes to succeed in 2016. They have almost no receiving weapons. Their pass rushers are aging. Their secondary still looks porous. Beware, that's what we thought about Carolina last year too. I'm not predicting a MVP season for Flacco, but the Ravens as a whole should bounce back a little; strong organizations usually do. While they come up a little short of the division crown, 9-7 feels much better for a franchise not used to picking in the top 10 of the draft.
Cincinnati 9-7
Sorry Bengals fans. I have our striped crusaders finishing 3rd in the division this year. However, the drop off isn't necessarily for all of the boiler plate reasons that have constantly been cited all offseason (at least not directly). I think this team is good. In fact, when I start trying to rank the 32 teams, I come up with a core of 5 to 8 teams and then the rest of the league is sort of a jumbled mess. I would argue you could slot the Bengals into the top 5.
Everyone thinks the offense will sputter with the WR free agency defections, the Eifert injury, and most of all the departure of the almighty Hue Jackson. The offense will be just fine. Sanu is a fairly average receiver, and Tyler Boyd essentially looks like he is a rich man's version of Sanu. Marvin Jones is good. He is certainly better than Lafell, and the default analysis seems to be to make the obvious one on one comparison between Jones and Lafell, dismiss Boyd as a rookie, and chalk it up as a red flag for the offense. Meanwhile, if you imagine replacing Jones with Lafell, some sliver of Boyd when he's not needed for slot duties, an increased target load on A.J. Green, some combination of the balance of the receiving corps, and a little heavier dose of Giovani Bernard and all of a sudden you talking about a 10 or 15% downgrade rather than 50%+.
The baseline offense will be fine. It's the loss of depth that I worry about. With Jones on the roster, it was much easier to navigate potentials pitfalls throughout the season. For instance, if Green goes down with a four week injury, it was reasonable to expect they could at least stay afloat and maybe go 2-2 without their best offensive player. Without Jones, they are more vulnerable.
The Eifert injury isn't ideal, but it seems a little presumptive at this point to extrapolate the negative impact of the injury through the entire year. If he returns by week 5 and works his way into shape by week 8, it might not be such a bad thing.
As far as Jackson goes, can we slow down on the Hue Jackson is a play-calling demigod narrative? I was glad when Jackson returned to Cincy for his second coaching stint. He did a lot of great things the past two years, but he wasn't infallible. I thought sometimes he got too cute with his gameplans and he took a little too long to change course and correct. I thought he turtled in crunch time a few times. For instance, they had multiple chances to seize control of the Denver game in the fourth quarter. Instead of being aggressive and trying to take the win they went conservative. I think Jackson will do good things in Cleveland, but will the room start to choke on all the smoke he blows three or four years down the road when they finally get that roster turned around? Can he stop out thinking himself as a play-caller? These are all questions the Bengals would have had to face had he stuck around. Ken Zampese is an unknown, and everyone tends to fear unknowns. But there is a chance that Zampese will be an upgrade over Jackson and people aren't putting enough weight on that possibility right now.
Overall, health is my biggest concern with this team. I'm a big believer that injuries in this sport are a matter of probability. Last year, they went half the year or more with almost no starters missing games due to injury. This year I doubt they'll be so lucky. Preseason injuries have already taken there toll on the roster. Will it snowball and sink the season early? Or will they weather the storm and slowly get a few players back and pick up some momentum in the second half of the season in time for a playoff push? It could go either way, but the pessimist in me is betting they fight the injury bug all year long. I think they end up gutting out 9 wins and coming up just short of the playoffs.
Cleveland 6-10
The Browns make some progress. Their young players load up on experience, they end up with two top-ten picks in the draft (more on that later), and they have some positive momentum going into next year,
AFC South
Tennessee 10-6
Okay, I'm going out on a limb on this one. There was no shortage of Mike Mularkey jokes throughout the offseason, but I have a feeling Mularkey will have the last laugh. They rebuilt their WR corps around precise rout runners. They constructed an intriguing backfield with a promising young offensive line. Their defense has more talent than people give credit. The Titans come out of nowhere to steal the AFC South.
Houston 9-7
It would be a travesty if Clowney finally has a healthy season and J.J. Watt's body lets him down. Still, this defense should be good. The offense has more talent, but offensive line health might stunt their growth.
Indianapolis 8-8
I am pulling for the Andrew Luck bounce back season, but looking at the defense and the offensive line, I don't know if it's in the cards this year.
Jacksonville 7-9
Unfortunately, with the buzz the Jaguars have generated 7-9 will feel like a disappointment. Hopefully, it is enough progress to keep this front office/coaching regime in tact for one more year.
AFC East
New England 11-5
Tom Brady is out for a quarter of the season, Gronkowski is already hurt and still no one can imagine anyone challenging the kings of the east for their crown. I don't really see it either.
Buffalo 8-8
Another team that has had nothing but bad news this summer. Still, I like the vibe of Tyrod Taylor in this offense. If the Ryan brothers could put together a half decent defense the Bills might actually stand a chance.
N.Y. Jets 6-10
This is admittedly low for the Jets. There's just something about going back to the Ryan Fitzpatrick well that feels like it is going to backfire. That and year two of Brandon Marshall is always a horror show. It's only a matter of time before all we read about is practices missed due to a hip injury.
Miami 3-13
Ryan Tannehill doesn't have it and this defense just doesn't look like it's going to have any teeth this year. Adam Gase needs to gut the roster and start over.
AFC West
Kansas City 11-5
If the D can hold it together until reinforcements come off the PUP it could be a special year in K.C. I have faith Andy Reid will keep this offense chugging maybe in the form of a career year for Alex Smith?
San Diego 9-7
Is Phillip Rivers finally going to have a year where his offensive line doesn't disintegrate in front of him? It's that probability thing again. They are due for a healthy year. The defense might be better than we think.
Denver 9-7
Trevor Siemian looked okay on Thurs. He made some mistakes not throwing lob passes or dump offs high enough, but those things will go away with experience.
Oakland 6-10
Everyone's favorite sleeper team comes up a little short of expectations. I'm not as sold on Derek Carr as most people. Still, the roster is solid. I think they're a year away from challenging for the playoffs.
NFC North
Green Bay 11-5
What are the chances Aaron Rodgers has two down years in a row? This is a "Relax" season.
Detroit 8-8
The Lions will be as inconsistent as their quarterback. They feel like a team that will slay a giant one week and then lose to a bottom feeder the next.
Minnesota 8-8
One of the story lines of the season I was looking forward to the most was whether the Teddy Bridgewater argument would be settled. Who is right Teddy's loyal supporters or his skeptics? Now we may never know. Zimmer drags this team to 8-8 anyway.
Chicago 7-9
The roster is improved, but neither the offense nor the defense have enough fire power to contend yet.
NFC South
Carolina 11-5
Down year for the Panthers. Only 11 wins this year. The defense is still strong and Cam Newton seems indestructible. They should mop up this division.
Tampa Bay 10-6
Famous Jameis makes a run at Cam Kool and the Gang, but it's not as close as these records would indicate. The o-line is a question mark, but the rest of the roster is rounding into form. Maybe the defense is still a year away from being a good unit, but I like Winston to put on a show.
Atlanta 8-8
If this team is going to be better than this it's going to be because Matt Ryan's dip in play last year was a mirage. The rest of the pieces are there on offense other than maybe a tight end. The defense still needs some work.
New Orleans 6-10
Everybody is confident Drew Brees will keep this thing rolling, but I think they'll have some hiccups this year. The defense couldn't get any worse than last year
NFC East
Washington 10-6
If you know what's going to happen in this division you are a better person than me. Washington, Dallas, New York. Draw names out of a hat. One of them has to have a good year right?
Dallas 8-8
Dak fever is upon us. He will have his highs and lows, but the defense will let him down.
N.Y. Giants 6-10
Buying a mercenary defense never works. The offensive line is a little scary. I drafted Odell Beckham in my fantasy league. All indicators that things won't go well for the Giants this year.
Philadelphia 2-14
I am excited to see if Carson Wentz can prove the naysayers wrong. He should not be attempting to do it in year one. I am a staunch believer in letting young QB's sit for at least half a year. Philly might be coughing up the number 1 pick to Cleveland.
NFC West
Seattle 12-4
The Seahawks feel like the favorites this year. They're not coming off a crushing Super Bowl loss. They're not coming into the year with key players banged up. The offensive line is shaky, but somehow it doesn't seem to matter with them.
Arizona 9-7
I'm not sure Carson Palmer has it any more, but the Cardinals sneak a wild card berth.
San Francisco 5-12
I wish Chip Kelly didn't land with a team with such a sub par roster. The Blaine train derails at some point and Kaepernick suffers a knee contusion from kneeling so much.
Los Angeles 4-12
It feels odd not to pencil in 7-9 here. Oh who am I kidding? Change Arizona to 8-8, change San Francisco to 3-13 and tab the Rams for 7 wins. The universe needs to stay in balance.
Playoffs??!!
AFC
New England snags a bye for the 170th year in a row. K.C. joins them.
Pittsburgh and Tennessee fall in the wild card round. New England is one and done after running into a red-hot Phillip Rivers buzz saw. K.C. makes it an AFC West party in the championship game after taking care of Baltimore. The Chiefs punch there Super Bowl Ticket as someone finally manages to slow down Rivers.
NFC
Palmer can't shake the playoff demons and gets outdueled by Kirk Cousins. Cam Kool puts Famous Jameis in his place, but gets chilled in Lambeau the following week. The Seahawks essentially have a bye into the championship game where Rodgers and company just can't hang with Russell Wilson and the Legion of Boom.
The Super Bowl
It feels lame, but I'm picking the favorite in a landslide. Seattle slaughters Kansas City 52-17.
Saturday, September 10, 2016
Tuesday, April 26, 2016
2016 NFL Final Mock Draft
It's go time! Once again, I'm sneaking in under the deadline here. The predraft trades have taken some of the suspense out of the top ten, but there should still be plenty of excitement. Here's my take on how Thursday night will unfold.
1. Los Angeles
The Pick: Jared Goff QB California
2. Philadelphia
The Pick: Carson Wentz QB North Dakota State
Not one but two teams paid healthy ransoms for the opportunity to select this year's top two quarterbacks. As news of the trades broke, opinions quickly polarized into two sides.
a. There's no price too high for a franchise quarterback. If they think they found their guy, they're right to pay whatever it takes.
b. These guys aren't worth top 10 picks. They paid too much.
Both sides are right and both sides are wrong. The price of 37 first round picks is too high. One seventh round pick is too low. There is a line somewhere in between that is just right. On the other hand, quarterback is the one position where teams need to evaluate the players, decide which one they want, and then go after them. You can try to be patient and let the draft come to you, but more than likely if you aren't aggressive, you will miss out.
Side b. thinks Goff and Wentz aren't worth top 10 picks, let alone worth mortgaging significant draft resources to trade up to take them in the top 10. To me, the evaluation part of this is a separate discussion. It is a hard process. Teams get it wrong every year. Professional analysts get it wrong every year. Amateurs like myself get it wrong every year. It isn't hard to find opposing opinions from analysts that you trust on just about every prospect. I'm not going to sit here and say that they are right or wrong for liking these quarterbacks. That said, consensus seems to be that neither of these players are plug and play starters. If that's true, I have reservations whether the Rams and Eagles will be able to surround their QB's with enough talent for them to succeed. Time will tell.
3. San Diego
Current buzz has the Chargers taking DeForest Buckner. Maybe they're just trying to trigger trade offers from teams in love with Buckner, but if they actually go through with it I think they're making a mistake. O-line injuries sank their last two seasons. Sorry, "we just re-signed King Dunlap" isn't a good enough reason to pass on the best OT prospect in years.
The Pick: Laremy Tunsil OT Mississippi
4. Dallas
Neither Myles Jack nor Jalen Ramsey is allowed to fall to the Ravens. I forbid it! I would have paid to see what Dallas would have done if a quarterback was still on the board here, but L.A. and Philly had to go get overzealous and now we'll never know. Negative news is swirling about Jack's knee. I don't think he falls.
The Pick: Myles Jack, LB UCLA
5. Jacksonville
It seems like the Jaguars have been trying to find a pass rusher for a decade, but all of their draft picks and free agent signings have either gotten injured or have been busts. Better take the DB here Gus.
The Pick: Jalen Ramsey, DB Florida State
6. Baltimore
Baltimore's D-line just keeps getting bigger and meaner.
The Pick: DeForest Buckner DE Oregon
7. San Francisco
San Francisco takes a look and decides to trade down when Miami calls. Miami has been trying for months to add a decent running back. Now they have their man.
The Pick: Ezekiel Elliot, RB Ohio State
8. Cleveland
I think Cleveland is going to trade down again, but I don't have a strong feeling on the trade partner. The hottest name on the draft board right now is Georgia OLB Leonard Floyd. Floyd oozes explosive athleticism on the field, but he is rail thin and from what I saw he has a ways to go before he realizes his potential. Regardless, NFL teams are drooling over the way Floyd effortlessly darts around the field. The New Orleans Saints are the lucky winners here.
The Pick: Leonard Floyd OLB Georgia
9. Tampa Bay
Speaking of lucky winners, the Buccaneers stumble into one of the best pass rushers in the class.
The Pick: Joey Bosa DE Ohio State
10. New York Giants
The Giants are reportedly hoping for Floyd, but they settle for an OT that will tie all the pieces of their O-line together. Jack Conklin is a grinder that should be able to hold down LT and allow the rest of the unit to slide into more natural roles at right tackle and guard.
The Pick: Jack Conklin OT Michigan State
11. Chicago
The Bears are in the market for a pass rusher. Instead of reaching for a DE, they opt for a penetrating DT that wreaks havoc on the interior.
The Pick: Sheldon Rankins DT Louisville
12. New Orleans
In this scenario, Cleveland moves into this slot. They are reportedly interested in Paxton Lynch, but before they think QB of the future, they decide to solidify their O-line first. Luckily for them, Ronnie Stanley has fallen right into their lap.
The Pick: Ronnie Stanley OT Notre Dame
13. Miami
Another traded pick. This time it's San Francisco on the clock. Vernon Hargreaves is supposedly tumbling down the draft board into the 20 to 25 range. I think he falls out of the top 10, but corner needy San Francisco ends his slide.
The Pick: Vernon Hargreaves CB Florida
14. Oakland
Oakland ponders dipping into the deep DT class, but can't resist bolstering their linebacking corps. Reggie Ragland should stabilize the middle of the field. There will be big bodies up front to select later.
The Pick: Reggie Ragland LB Alabama
15. Tennessee
The Titans are finally on the clock after trading away the number 1 pick. They could go a variety of directions here. D-line makes sense, but there isn't a lot of value here that fits their scheme. William Jackson has been steadily climbing up the draft board. Cornerback gets the nod.
The Pick: William Jackson III CB Houston
16. Detroit
Once a strength, free agency has depleted the Lions' D-line. Most are higher on Shaq Lawson than I am. He makes a lot of plays, but he doesn't seem to have blistering speed or raw strength and he falls down a lot. I'm not sure he's not just a really good college player. Still, a lot of analysts will consider this great value.
The Pick: Shaq Lawson DE Clemson
17. Atlanta
I did a little research on Lawson's running mate, Kevin Dodd. I actually ended up liking him better than Lawson. Dodd needs to develop a wider variety of pass rush moves, but he just looks to me like he's a little more heavy-handed than Lawson. He has more pop. If they're not careful, Atlanta may someday approach Jaguar-level neediness at defensive end.
The Pick: Kevin Dodd DE Clemson
18. Indianapolis
The Colts need to protect Andrew Luck. I don't care if they spend all of their picks on o-line. Even if they have to cut a few of them, it would be worth it.
The Pick: Taylor Decker OT Ohio St.
19. Buffalo
Rex Ryan never really had a blistering outside linebacker in New York. He decides to take a crack at it here. The draft process has been a roller coaster ride for Noah Spence. The Bills gamble on the character risk.
The Pick: Noah Spence OLB Eastern Kentucky
20. New York Jets
There isn't a good O-line fit for the Jets here so they decide to pump some athleticism into their front seven.
The Pick: Darron Lee LB Ohio St.
21. Washington
If you are a Bengals fan drooling that no receivers are off the board yet, the run starts here. Corey Coleman is electric. The Redskins need a backup plan for some juice in their offense if DeSean Jackson can't stay healthy. Consider Coleman an adequate backup generator.
The Pick: Corey Coleman WR Baylor
22. Houston
Like the Bengals, the Texans don't have much more than stop gaps in place opposite their star wide receiver. They decide to go with greasy fast speed in a class that is a little light on that commodity.
The Pick: Will Fuller WR Notre Dame
23. Minnesota
The run continues. The Vikings need to keep funneling talent around Teddy Bridgewater. Josh Doctson will make for a nice security blanket.
The Pick: Josh Doctson WR TCU
24. CINCINNATI!!!
Without further ado, I'll introduce you to the Bengals new WR2: Laquon "Lawman" Treadwell!
As a testament to how wide open this first round is going to be, I'm not sure whether to defend this pick as a stretch that Treadwell will fall this far or a reach that Cincy should wait on WR and draft defense. Beware, if he's the guy you're really hoping for, he comes in play from about pick 10 on. I came close to mocking him elsewhere several times (particularly to Cleveland in their trade-down scenario), but in the end the combination of Treadwell's lack of enticing measureables and the lack of WR-needy teams in the middle of the round leads him to slide right down the draft board into a smiling Marvin Lewis's lap.
Treadwell is a beast. Sure, he ran a slow 40 time, but he gets open with rout running, physicality, and body control. He will be a red zone threat. He will thrive on intermediate targets. He will block tenaciously. He fits right into the wheelhouse of this offense.
A.J. Green is quick and agile with speed when he needs it: the Jungle Cat.
Tyler Eifert is a movable chess piece that can go any direction at any time: The Queen
Free-agency hit the WR corps hard, but with the Lawman, the Queen, and the Cat on the prowl, I expect that everything will be okay.
Since I've officially talked this potential outcome up too much, let's talk some alternatives. This WR class doesn't have a lot of WR1 prospects, but luckily for Cincy it has WR2 prospects stashed in just about every round. If Doctson or Coleman slip to 24 instead of Treadwell, I'd endorse either one. Who better to take over for Marvin Jones than the player I've seen comped as a very rich-man's Marvin Jones, Doctson. Coleman has big-play ability, but he's more versatile than someone like Will Fuller. Sterling Sheperd, Leonte Carroo, Tyler Boyd, Daniel Braverman, Michael Thomas; these guys would all make fine targets in later rounds.
If they opt for defense they might be taking another corner, especially if Hargreaves drops as much as is being advertised. Eli Apple, Mackensie Alexander, and Artie Burns are other corners that might be in their range. At DL, both Alabama DT's are available in this mock. Robert Nkemdiche is a wild card. Chris Jones has a lot of buzz. Vernon Butler and Andrew Billings are big, strong interior guys that could contribute. Sadly, it looks like the odds of a Jaylon Smith full recovery are long enough that the Notre Dame linebacker could fal into day 3. At DE I would be disappointed with Emmanuel Ogbah, but he is a player I could see them taking. Let's not think about that though. Just cross your fingers and keep dreaming about the Lawman.
The Pick: Laquon Treadwell WR Mississippi
25. Pittsburgh
The Steelers have last year's second round pick, CB Senquez Golson, coming back after missing all of last year, and they continue to bolster their secondary here with Eli Apple. Big athletic corners don't grow on trees.
The Pick; Eli Apple CB Ohio St.
26. Seattle
Chris Jones has size and strength, but he can penetrate and disrupt as well. Seattle will gladly start a DT run.
The Pick: Chris Jones DT Mississippi St.
27. Green Bay
The packers need some beef up front. Luckily that isn't hard to find in this class.
The Pick: Jarran Reed DT Alabama
28. Kansas City
A'Shawn Robinson will fit in nicely as a 3-4 DE and he has future potential as a pass rusher.
The Pick: A'Shawn Robinson DT Alabama
29. Arizona
Outside pass rushers are a little bit thin in this class. The Cardinals pick up one of the last few worthy of consideration in round 1.
The Pick: Kamalei Correa OLB Boise State
30. Carolina
If the Panthers want to replace the swag of Josh Norman, look no farther than Mackensie Alexander.
The Pick: Mackensie Alexander CB Clemson
31. Denver
The Broncos begin to rebuild their offensive line with a versatile player that can be slotted into just about any spot.
The Pick: Cody Whitehair OG Kansas St.
1. Los Angeles
The Pick: Jared Goff QB California
2. Philadelphia
The Pick: Carson Wentz QB North Dakota State
Not one but two teams paid healthy ransoms for the opportunity to select this year's top two quarterbacks. As news of the trades broke, opinions quickly polarized into two sides.
a. There's no price too high for a franchise quarterback. If they think they found their guy, they're right to pay whatever it takes.
b. These guys aren't worth top 10 picks. They paid too much.
Both sides are right and both sides are wrong. The price of 37 first round picks is too high. One seventh round pick is too low. There is a line somewhere in between that is just right. On the other hand, quarterback is the one position where teams need to evaluate the players, decide which one they want, and then go after them. You can try to be patient and let the draft come to you, but more than likely if you aren't aggressive, you will miss out.
Side b. thinks Goff and Wentz aren't worth top 10 picks, let alone worth mortgaging significant draft resources to trade up to take them in the top 10. To me, the evaluation part of this is a separate discussion. It is a hard process. Teams get it wrong every year. Professional analysts get it wrong every year. Amateurs like myself get it wrong every year. It isn't hard to find opposing opinions from analysts that you trust on just about every prospect. I'm not going to sit here and say that they are right or wrong for liking these quarterbacks. That said, consensus seems to be that neither of these players are plug and play starters. If that's true, I have reservations whether the Rams and Eagles will be able to surround their QB's with enough talent for them to succeed. Time will tell.
3. San Diego
Current buzz has the Chargers taking DeForest Buckner. Maybe they're just trying to trigger trade offers from teams in love with Buckner, but if they actually go through with it I think they're making a mistake. O-line injuries sank their last two seasons. Sorry, "we just re-signed King Dunlap" isn't a good enough reason to pass on the best OT prospect in years.
The Pick: Laremy Tunsil OT Mississippi
4. Dallas
Neither Myles Jack nor Jalen Ramsey is allowed to fall to the Ravens. I forbid it! I would have paid to see what Dallas would have done if a quarterback was still on the board here, but L.A. and Philly had to go get overzealous and now we'll never know. Negative news is swirling about Jack's knee. I don't think he falls.
The Pick: Myles Jack, LB UCLA
5. Jacksonville
It seems like the Jaguars have been trying to find a pass rusher for a decade, but all of their draft picks and free agent signings have either gotten injured or have been busts. Better take the DB here Gus.
The Pick: Jalen Ramsey, DB Florida State
6. Baltimore
Baltimore's D-line just keeps getting bigger and meaner.
The Pick: DeForest Buckner DE Oregon
7. San Francisco
San Francisco takes a look and decides to trade down when Miami calls. Miami has been trying for months to add a decent running back. Now they have their man.
The Pick: Ezekiel Elliot, RB Ohio State
8. Cleveland
I think Cleveland is going to trade down again, but I don't have a strong feeling on the trade partner. The hottest name on the draft board right now is Georgia OLB Leonard Floyd. Floyd oozes explosive athleticism on the field, but he is rail thin and from what I saw he has a ways to go before he realizes his potential. Regardless, NFL teams are drooling over the way Floyd effortlessly darts around the field. The New Orleans Saints are the lucky winners here.
The Pick: Leonard Floyd OLB Georgia
9. Tampa Bay
Speaking of lucky winners, the Buccaneers stumble into one of the best pass rushers in the class.
The Pick: Joey Bosa DE Ohio State
10. New York Giants
The Giants are reportedly hoping for Floyd, but they settle for an OT that will tie all the pieces of their O-line together. Jack Conklin is a grinder that should be able to hold down LT and allow the rest of the unit to slide into more natural roles at right tackle and guard.
The Pick: Jack Conklin OT Michigan State
11. Chicago
The Bears are in the market for a pass rusher. Instead of reaching for a DE, they opt for a penetrating DT that wreaks havoc on the interior.
The Pick: Sheldon Rankins DT Louisville
12. New Orleans
In this scenario, Cleveland moves into this slot. They are reportedly interested in Paxton Lynch, but before they think QB of the future, they decide to solidify their O-line first. Luckily for them, Ronnie Stanley has fallen right into their lap.
The Pick: Ronnie Stanley OT Notre Dame
13. Miami
Another traded pick. This time it's San Francisco on the clock. Vernon Hargreaves is supposedly tumbling down the draft board into the 20 to 25 range. I think he falls out of the top 10, but corner needy San Francisco ends his slide.
The Pick: Vernon Hargreaves CB Florida
14. Oakland
Oakland ponders dipping into the deep DT class, but can't resist bolstering their linebacking corps. Reggie Ragland should stabilize the middle of the field. There will be big bodies up front to select later.
The Pick: Reggie Ragland LB Alabama
15. Tennessee
The Titans are finally on the clock after trading away the number 1 pick. They could go a variety of directions here. D-line makes sense, but there isn't a lot of value here that fits their scheme. William Jackson has been steadily climbing up the draft board. Cornerback gets the nod.
The Pick: William Jackson III CB Houston
16. Detroit
Once a strength, free agency has depleted the Lions' D-line. Most are higher on Shaq Lawson than I am. He makes a lot of plays, but he doesn't seem to have blistering speed or raw strength and he falls down a lot. I'm not sure he's not just a really good college player. Still, a lot of analysts will consider this great value.
The Pick: Shaq Lawson DE Clemson
17. Atlanta
I did a little research on Lawson's running mate, Kevin Dodd. I actually ended up liking him better than Lawson. Dodd needs to develop a wider variety of pass rush moves, but he just looks to me like he's a little more heavy-handed than Lawson. He has more pop. If they're not careful, Atlanta may someday approach Jaguar-level neediness at defensive end.
The Pick: Kevin Dodd DE Clemson
18. Indianapolis
The Colts need to protect Andrew Luck. I don't care if they spend all of their picks on o-line. Even if they have to cut a few of them, it would be worth it.
The Pick: Taylor Decker OT Ohio St.
19. Buffalo
Rex Ryan never really had a blistering outside linebacker in New York. He decides to take a crack at it here. The draft process has been a roller coaster ride for Noah Spence. The Bills gamble on the character risk.
The Pick: Noah Spence OLB Eastern Kentucky
20. New York Jets
There isn't a good O-line fit for the Jets here so they decide to pump some athleticism into their front seven.
The Pick: Darron Lee LB Ohio St.
21. Washington
If you are a Bengals fan drooling that no receivers are off the board yet, the run starts here. Corey Coleman is electric. The Redskins need a backup plan for some juice in their offense if DeSean Jackson can't stay healthy. Consider Coleman an adequate backup generator.
The Pick: Corey Coleman WR Baylor
22. Houston
Like the Bengals, the Texans don't have much more than stop gaps in place opposite their star wide receiver. They decide to go with greasy fast speed in a class that is a little light on that commodity.
The Pick: Will Fuller WR Notre Dame
23. Minnesota
The run continues. The Vikings need to keep funneling talent around Teddy Bridgewater. Josh Doctson will make for a nice security blanket.
The Pick: Josh Doctson WR TCU
24. CINCINNATI!!!
Without further ado, I'll introduce you to the Bengals new WR2: Laquon "Lawman" Treadwell!
As a testament to how wide open this first round is going to be, I'm not sure whether to defend this pick as a stretch that Treadwell will fall this far or a reach that Cincy should wait on WR and draft defense. Beware, if he's the guy you're really hoping for, he comes in play from about pick 10 on. I came close to mocking him elsewhere several times (particularly to Cleveland in their trade-down scenario), but in the end the combination of Treadwell's lack of enticing measureables and the lack of WR-needy teams in the middle of the round leads him to slide right down the draft board into a smiling Marvin Lewis's lap.
Treadwell is a beast. Sure, he ran a slow 40 time, but he gets open with rout running, physicality, and body control. He will be a red zone threat. He will thrive on intermediate targets. He will block tenaciously. He fits right into the wheelhouse of this offense.
A.J. Green is quick and agile with speed when he needs it: the Jungle Cat.
Tyler Eifert is a movable chess piece that can go any direction at any time: The Queen
Free-agency hit the WR corps hard, but with the Lawman, the Queen, and the Cat on the prowl, I expect that everything will be okay.
Since I've officially talked this potential outcome up too much, let's talk some alternatives. This WR class doesn't have a lot of WR1 prospects, but luckily for Cincy it has WR2 prospects stashed in just about every round. If Doctson or Coleman slip to 24 instead of Treadwell, I'd endorse either one. Who better to take over for Marvin Jones than the player I've seen comped as a very rich-man's Marvin Jones, Doctson. Coleman has big-play ability, but he's more versatile than someone like Will Fuller. Sterling Sheperd, Leonte Carroo, Tyler Boyd, Daniel Braverman, Michael Thomas; these guys would all make fine targets in later rounds.
If they opt for defense they might be taking another corner, especially if Hargreaves drops as much as is being advertised. Eli Apple, Mackensie Alexander, and Artie Burns are other corners that might be in their range. At DL, both Alabama DT's are available in this mock. Robert Nkemdiche is a wild card. Chris Jones has a lot of buzz. Vernon Butler and Andrew Billings are big, strong interior guys that could contribute. Sadly, it looks like the odds of a Jaylon Smith full recovery are long enough that the Notre Dame linebacker could fal into day 3. At DE I would be disappointed with Emmanuel Ogbah, but he is a player I could see them taking. Let's not think about that though. Just cross your fingers and keep dreaming about the Lawman.
The Pick: Laquon Treadwell WR Mississippi
25. Pittsburgh
The Steelers have last year's second round pick, CB Senquez Golson, coming back after missing all of last year, and they continue to bolster their secondary here with Eli Apple. Big athletic corners don't grow on trees.
The Pick; Eli Apple CB Ohio St.
26. Seattle
Chris Jones has size and strength, but he can penetrate and disrupt as well. Seattle will gladly start a DT run.
The Pick: Chris Jones DT Mississippi St.
27. Green Bay
The packers need some beef up front. Luckily that isn't hard to find in this class.
The Pick: Jarran Reed DT Alabama
28. Kansas City
A'Shawn Robinson will fit in nicely as a 3-4 DE and he has future potential as a pass rusher.
The Pick: A'Shawn Robinson DT Alabama
29. Arizona
Outside pass rushers are a little bit thin in this class. The Cardinals pick up one of the last few worthy of consideration in round 1.
The Pick: Kamalei Correa OLB Boise State
30. Carolina
If the Panthers want to replace the swag of Josh Norman, look no farther than Mackensie Alexander.
The Pick: Mackensie Alexander CB Clemson
31. Denver
The Broncos begin to rebuild their offensive line with a versatile player that can be slotted into just about any spot.
The Pick: Cody Whitehair OG Kansas St.
Thursday, April 7, 2016
Bengals Big Board: 2016 Bengals Draft Needs
It's draft month. What do the Bengals need? Who should they take in the first round? Here are some names to watch out for at pick 24 at the end of the month. But first, let's narrow down the list a little.
The Top Ten:
8. Philadelphia: Vernon Hargreaves CB Florida
I love the move by Philly to trade up from 13 to 8. Consensus has a dropoff in talent after the top 9 or 10 players and they didn't give up much to do it. Hargreaves looked like an elite talent in 2014. Analysts downgraded his 2015 performance slightly, but he's still a worthy pick here.
9. Tampa Bay: DeForest Buckner DE Oregon
Another 6'7" 290 lb. DE from Oregon. I can't get Arik Armstead out of my head from last year, but according to most, Buckner is closer to Leonard Williams than Armstead.
10. New York Giants: Jack Conklin OT Michigan State
The Giants have clusterbombed their defensive line need in free agency. Given their track record that doesn't mean they won't go DL here, but I don't think the value fits. They have a host of other needs. O-line makes the most sense.
Bengals Big Board: Best of the Rest
Okay, wipe those top ten off the board. I'm reasonably sure they will all be gone before pick 24. Throw in Ezekiel Elliot. He should be gone too.
Beyond that, opinions on remaining players are all over the place. Obviously they won't all be available at Cincy's pick, but any of them could be. Here's how I'd rank the next 13 best options for the Bengals. By my count, they should have a shot at one of these guys.
1. Laquon Treadwell WR Ole' Miss.
2. Josh Doctson WR TCU
Or as autocorrect put it when I typed this up: Lawman Treadwell and Josh Diction. Doctson isn't quite the precise technican you'd expect in someone named Diction, but Lawman seems to be about the perfect nickname for Treadwell. Everybody wants a blazing speed receiver, but I prefer these two guys first. Scouring for fast guys to attack defenses is almost cliche. Think about Andy Dalton's skill set. What is more valuable in this offense, someone who can beat a defender 50 yards down the field, or a player that specializes at intermediate routes and making contested catches? Both of these guys find ways to get open and can go deep on a more limited basis when needed. Both are great at attacking the ball in the air and either might actually upgade the red zone offense immediately. Do these two have enough speed to get open in the pros? Doctson posted adequate numbers at the combine running a 4.5 40 and finishing near the top of the position group in most other tests. Treadwell finally ran at his pro-day and ran a 4.65 40. It is a testament to his skill level that despite the slow time, most analysts are still stumping for him to get selected in the top 20. Both players will be fine. Treadwell is more polished and his body is more NFL-ready. Doctson feels like a better fit to develop into Robin to Batman A.J. Green.
3. Corey Coleman WR Baylor
Small, speedy receiver that makes big plays. His college offense didn't ask him to run many routes, but he should be able to contribute early on shear athleticism in the short and long passing game.
4. A'Shawn Robinson DT Alabama
Some think Robinson is purely a two-down defender and fringe first rounder. Others see him as a plus run defender with pass rushing upside sloted in the 10 to 20 range. If someone like New Orleans takes him, I think they'll be disappointed. Stick him between Geno Atkins and Michael Johnson and I think maybe you have a difference maker on defense. The idea is to upgrade the Peko spot on the D-line with someone more athletic that can still defend the run. Year one they'll be ok. Year two they have a chance to morph into something special.
5. Darron Lee LB Ohio State
Playmaking LB with unbelievable athleticism. He probably has to play weak side, which means they'd have to move Burfict to the middle. They've resisted doing that, but increased athleticism on the second level of the defense is sorely needed. This would be one way to do it.
6. Reggie Ragland LB Alabama
Stout MLB with size that flys to the ball. Coverage skills are a question mark. Think rich man's Rey Maualuga. Does Alambama's D-line mask any of Ragland's flaws?
7. Robert Nkemdiche DT Ole' Miss.
Classic top-ten talent with no shortage of character concerns. He will struggle if he's asked to shoulder too much, but surrounded by a talented d-line I think he'll thrive. It sounds like the off-the-field red flags might even push him into the second round.
8. Jarran Reed DT Alabama
Big stout DT that excels vs. the run, but hasn't really been asked to penetrate. Another Alabama front seven player. It always makes me queasy to see so many guys ranked high from the same team playing positions in such a close proximity to each other. Going against inferior college talent do they make each other look better than they actually are? The Bengals run defense is a little streaky. I wouldn't mind upgrading the Peko slot on the starting line and plugging in a space eater to free up everyone else.
9. Andrew Billngs DT Baylor
10. Vernon Butler DT Louisiana Tech
The parade of DT's continues. There is a line somewhere where the best DT available doesn't have enough immediate upgrade potential to warrant selecting them in the first round. I'm not sure the line where they'd wait on DT isn't going to be drawn at Reed in which case these two would slide down this list a little. Not to mention, if they pass on DT at 24, there are three or four more that wouldn't be a major dropoff waiting to get selected in round 2. There will be a run on the position before the Bengals' second round pick, but somebody should be left.
11. Shaq Lawson DE Clemson
Best 4-3 DE in this class not named Bosa. Some prefer his teammate, Kevin Dodd. I have to look a little closer but Dodd seems to try to sprint around the edge on every play. Lawson has a little more variety to his moves. DE isn't the biggest need but if they think they can get a future starter at one of the premier positions in the league, it is worth the investment.
12. Eli Apple CB Ohio State
Corner with size who showed great athleticism at the combine. It feels like the Bengals funnel endless resources this direction but depending how good they feel about Dre Kirkpatrick it might be necessary.
13. Will Fuller WR Notre Dame
Another short fast guy. At 6', he doen't catch as much flack for being little, but he's only 1" taller and about 10 lbs. lighter than Coleman. Fuller is a deep threat but that's about it at this point.
Orrrrrr...
***14.*** Jaylon Smith LB Notre Dame
The Notre Dame LB is exactly what the Bengals defense needs: a rangy linebacker that can penetrate and make plays behind the line of scrimmage. Unfortunately, he tore up his knee in January bad enough that he likely won't be available for 2016 and there's some risk he'll never be the same athlete again. As many have quipped, if he were healthy he'd be a top 10 pick. With questions about whether or not there is nerve damage in his knee still unanswered, I don't think anyone in the top 23 can afford to take the risk on him. The Bengals on the other hand have the flexibility to pull the trigger. The doctors will have their say. If there's a decent chance he recovers, I would slot him somewhere on the 5 to 7 range on this list. If they are highly confident in a full recovery, I'd bump him up in the 1 to 3 range.
Others in the Mix:
Mackenzie Alexander CB Clemson
Ultra confident bump and run corner. Wasn't tested much in college.
Sheldon Rankins DT Louisville
Probably should be ranked higher, but might be too small to play next to Atkins
Leonard Floyd OLB Georgia
Raw 3-4 OLB. I'm not sure they want to gamble on him as a 4-3 convert. Hopefully he gets taken higher and pushes everyone else down.
Kevin Dodd DE Clemson
See Shaq Lawson notes above.
Noah Spence OLB Eastern Kentucky
A better fit than Floyd to convert to a stand up edge rushing LB that can also handle 4-3 duties. Off the field concerns and disappointing workouts drop him down.
Von Bell S Ohio State
With Reggie Nelson officially moving on, a safety wouldn't be the worst idea in the world. If they do it in round 1, Bell is their top option.
Ryan Kelly C Alabama
Sorry Russ Bodine. I am still trying to replace you.
That's it. I'll try to squeeze a few other posts in predraft, but definitely check back the week of draft day for my final mock.
The Top Ten:
1. Tennessee: Laremy Tunsil OT Ole' Miss.
Usually analysts are hesitant to compare prospects to star players. When they do, they qualify it with all kinds of disclaimers like they are a commercial for blood pressure medicine. I heard an interview with Lance Zierlein, a pretty solid draft analyst specifically known for his chops evaluating offensive line talent, where he almost casually referred to Tunsil in the same sentence with Walter Jones (yes, the hall of famer). There are other players good enough for Tennessee to consider, but taking Tunsil on the heels of Mariota is too juicy to pass up. I don't care if they've already invested resources at the position
2. Cleveland: Carson Wentz, QB North Dakota State
Cleveland should take a quarterback. There's some chatter building that they won't at #2. Denver wins a Super Bowl with Zombie Peyton Manning going three and out 17 straight times (that number is only slightly exaggerated) and people get disillusioned enough to think they can get cute at QB. Take a DB? Take a DE? Find your quarterback later? Beware Cleveland. It will only add to your legend.
3. San Diego: Jalen Ramsey, DB Florida State
Offensive line would be nice, but there's more value at defense. Ramsey has been heralded as the best corner and the best safety in the draft. Some mock him to Tennessee. 3 to 5 is more likely.
4. Dallas: Joey Bosa, DE Ohio State
Jared Allen Retires. Joey Bosa enters the league. It feels like the universe is in balance. Bosa is a two-way defender technically sound enough to contribute against the run and the pass as a rookie. Just imagine what Rod Marinelli will do with him.
5. Jacksonville: Myles Jack, LB UCLA
Drafting a non-pass rushing linebacker early has become a faux pas. Yet, the direction the league has gone, defense is now a match-up game as much as anything. The value of elite coverage linebackers is quickly approaching that of rushers. Elite almost doesn't describe Jack's coverage talent. Famously, when UCLA played USC in 2014, Jack lined up against Nelson Agholor on more than a few snaps in cover 0 (one on one with no safety help). Agholor didn't have a catch.
6. Baltimore: Ronnie Stanley, OT Notre Dame
I haven't heard Stanley compared to any HOF'ers, but rumor has it some teams like him as much as Tunsil.
7. San Francisco: Jared Goff QB California
49ers snag their QB of the future who played his college ball closer to San Francisco than the 49ers do.
49ers snag their QB of the future who played his college ball closer to San Francisco than the 49ers do.
8. Philadelphia: Vernon Hargreaves CB Florida
I love the move by Philly to trade up from 13 to 8. Consensus has a dropoff in talent after the top 9 or 10 players and they didn't give up much to do it. Hargreaves looked like an elite talent in 2014. Analysts downgraded his 2015 performance slightly, but he's still a worthy pick here.
9. Tampa Bay: DeForest Buckner DE Oregon
Another 6'7" 290 lb. DE from Oregon. I can't get Arik Armstead out of my head from last year, but according to most, Buckner is closer to Leonard Williams than Armstead.
10. New York Giants: Jack Conklin OT Michigan State
The Giants have clusterbombed their defensive line need in free agency. Given their track record that doesn't mean they won't go DL here, but I don't think the value fits. They have a host of other needs. O-line makes the most sense.
Bengals Big Board: Best of the Rest
Okay, wipe those top ten off the board. I'm reasonably sure they will all be gone before pick 24. Throw in Ezekiel Elliot. He should be gone too.
Beyond that, opinions on remaining players are all over the place. Obviously they won't all be available at Cincy's pick, but any of them could be. Here's how I'd rank the next 13 best options for the Bengals. By my count, they should have a shot at one of these guys.
1. Laquon Treadwell WR Ole' Miss.
2. Josh Doctson WR TCU
Or as autocorrect put it when I typed this up: Lawman Treadwell and Josh Diction. Doctson isn't quite the precise technican you'd expect in someone named Diction, but Lawman seems to be about the perfect nickname for Treadwell. Everybody wants a blazing speed receiver, but I prefer these two guys first. Scouring for fast guys to attack defenses is almost cliche. Think about Andy Dalton's skill set. What is more valuable in this offense, someone who can beat a defender 50 yards down the field, or a player that specializes at intermediate routes and making contested catches? Both of these guys find ways to get open and can go deep on a more limited basis when needed. Both are great at attacking the ball in the air and either might actually upgade the red zone offense immediately. Do these two have enough speed to get open in the pros? Doctson posted adequate numbers at the combine running a 4.5 40 and finishing near the top of the position group in most other tests. Treadwell finally ran at his pro-day and ran a 4.65 40. It is a testament to his skill level that despite the slow time, most analysts are still stumping for him to get selected in the top 20. Both players will be fine. Treadwell is more polished and his body is more NFL-ready. Doctson feels like a better fit to develop into Robin to Batman A.J. Green.
3. Corey Coleman WR Baylor
Small, speedy receiver that makes big plays. His college offense didn't ask him to run many routes, but he should be able to contribute early on shear athleticism in the short and long passing game.
4. A'Shawn Robinson DT Alabama
Some think Robinson is purely a two-down defender and fringe first rounder. Others see him as a plus run defender with pass rushing upside sloted in the 10 to 20 range. If someone like New Orleans takes him, I think they'll be disappointed. Stick him between Geno Atkins and Michael Johnson and I think maybe you have a difference maker on defense. The idea is to upgrade the Peko spot on the D-line with someone more athletic that can still defend the run. Year one they'll be ok. Year two they have a chance to morph into something special.
5. Darron Lee LB Ohio State
Playmaking LB with unbelievable athleticism. He probably has to play weak side, which means they'd have to move Burfict to the middle. They've resisted doing that, but increased athleticism on the second level of the defense is sorely needed. This would be one way to do it.
6. Reggie Ragland LB Alabama
Stout MLB with size that flys to the ball. Coverage skills are a question mark. Think rich man's Rey Maualuga. Does Alambama's D-line mask any of Ragland's flaws?
7. Robert Nkemdiche DT Ole' Miss.
Classic top-ten talent with no shortage of character concerns. He will struggle if he's asked to shoulder too much, but surrounded by a talented d-line I think he'll thrive. It sounds like the off-the-field red flags might even push him into the second round.
8. Jarran Reed DT Alabama
Big stout DT that excels vs. the run, but hasn't really been asked to penetrate. Another Alabama front seven player. It always makes me queasy to see so many guys ranked high from the same team playing positions in such a close proximity to each other. Going against inferior college talent do they make each other look better than they actually are? The Bengals run defense is a little streaky. I wouldn't mind upgrading the Peko slot on the starting line and plugging in a space eater to free up everyone else.
9. Andrew Billngs DT Baylor
10. Vernon Butler DT Louisiana Tech
The parade of DT's continues. There is a line somewhere where the best DT available doesn't have enough immediate upgrade potential to warrant selecting them in the first round. I'm not sure the line where they'd wait on DT isn't going to be drawn at Reed in which case these two would slide down this list a little. Not to mention, if they pass on DT at 24, there are three or four more that wouldn't be a major dropoff waiting to get selected in round 2. There will be a run on the position before the Bengals' second round pick, but somebody should be left.
11. Shaq Lawson DE Clemson
Best 4-3 DE in this class not named Bosa. Some prefer his teammate, Kevin Dodd. I have to look a little closer but Dodd seems to try to sprint around the edge on every play. Lawson has a little more variety to his moves. DE isn't the biggest need but if they think they can get a future starter at one of the premier positions in the league, it is worth the investment.
12. Eli Apple CB Ohio State
Corner with size who showed great athleticism at the combine. It feels like the Bengals funnel endless resources this direction but depending how good they feel about Dre Kirkpatrick it might be necessary.
13. Will Fuller WR Notre Dame
Another short fast guy. At 6', he doen't catch as much flack for being little, but he's only 1" taller and about 10 lbs. lighter than Coleman. Fuller is a deep threat but that's about it at this point.
Orrrrrr...
***14.*** Jaylon Smith LB Notre Dame
The Notre Dame LB is exactly what the Bengals defense needs: a rangy linebacker that can penetrate and make plays behind the line of scrimmage. Unfortunately, he tore up his knee in January bad enough that he likely won't be available for 2016 and there's some risk he'll never be the same athlete again. As many have quipped, if he were healthy he'd be a top 10 pick. With questions about whether or not there is nerve damage in his knee still unanswered, I don't think anyone in the top 23 can afford to take the risk on him. The Bengals on the other hand have the flexibility to pull the trigger. The doctors will have their say. If there's a decent chance he recovers, I would slot him somewhere on the 5 to 7 range on this list. If they are highly confident in a full recovery, I'd bump him up in the 1 to 3 range.
Others in the Mix:
Mackenzie Alexander CB Clemson
Ultra confident bump and run corner. Wasn't tested much in college.
Sheldon Rankins DT Louisville
Probably should be ranked higher, but might be too small to play next to Atkins
Leonard Floyd OLB Georgia
Raw 3-4 OLB. I'm not sure they want to gamble on him as a 4-3 convert. Hopefully he gets taken higher and pushes everyone else down.
Kevin Dodd DE Clemson
See Shaq Lawson notes above.
Noah Spence OLB Eastern Kentucky
A better fit than Floyd to convert to a stand up edge rushing LB that can also handle 4-3 duties. Off the field concerns and disappointing workouts drop him down.
Von Bell S Ohio State
With Reggie Nelson officially moving on, a safety wouldn't be the worst idea in the world. If they do it in round 1, Bell is their top option.
Ryan Kelly C Alabama
Sorry Russ Bodine. I am still trying to replace you.
That's it. I'll try to squeeze a few other posts in predraft, but definitely check back the week of draft day for my final mock.
Tuesday, March 8, 2016
2016 Bengals Free Agency: A Preemptive Public Service Announcement
The Draft is less than two months away and free agency is about to kick off. It's time to start sizing up what the Bengals' roster is going to look like next season. With significant chunks of the roster set to test free agency waters, 2016 still looks pretty murky. The list of unrestricted free agents doesn't include any franchise players, but ranging from basically the entire starting secondary, to offensive starters Andre Smith and Marvin Jones, to key role players like Vinny Rey, Wallace Gilberry, Mohamed Sanu, Emmanuel Lamur, Brandon Thompson, and Pat Sims, it is a daunting list none the less.
BE PREPARED. The Bengals are going to come out of the gate slow like they always do. They will probably lose multiple players in the first week and not do much to replace them. Don't jump. Come in off the ledge. All of the national pundits will be incredulous,
"Cincinnati could be a contender. They have all kinds of cap space. They have to step up. What are they doing? Their ownership is cheap."
Everyone knows free agency is a slippery slope. Yet, every year, the teams that slow play it get shamed for not filling needs and the teams that invest heavily generate buzz. There's a reason Cincinnati has a strong roster with cap space to spare. They are disciplined. They almost never chase ascending players that carry a price tag of projected market value. Sometimes that works, but it's like playing the stock market. The Bengals tend to stick with paying for known commodities and it has served them well. When they see a great player, they have no problem paying him like a great player. They avoid paying good players like they are going to be great players. They draft for depth so that when someone leaves it is next man up. Here's how I see it playing out.
Safeties first? Or receivers? Either way, both figure to go quick. Teams looking for WR help are staring at a free agency crop led by... well, Jones followed by players like Travis Benjamin, Anquan Boldin, Sanu, and Rishard Matthews. If teams don't quench their receiver thirst with veterans, their alternative will be to dip into a mediocre draft class thin on high-end talent. Sure it would be nice to have Sanu and Jones back, but they will most likely command salaries well above their current market value. Somebody is going to hit them with an offer they can't refuse and most likely it will happen quickly.
The safeties are in a similar boat. The safety position is trending up these days and George Iloka figures to ride that wave to a massive payday. I don't think Reggie Nelson will be far behind. It might take a little longer He's older than some teams would like, but there are too many shaky secondaries out there for Nelson to last too long. I'm holding out hope they splurge a little and retain one of these two, but right now I'm assuming both will be gone.
Andre Smith will sign elsewhere towards the end of the first week along with somebody like Vinny Rey and it will feel like the sky is falling. Beyond that, I think they have a decent shot at Leon Hall, Gilberry, Lamur, Thompson, and Sims. The key will be Adam Jones. If they retain him, they at least have one known entity to build around in the back half of the defense. Heading into the offseason, I thought the chances of keeping him were pretty good, but now it sounds like he has a few other suitors pursuing him. He will receive offers, but he wants to stay. It could go either way.
BE PREPARED. When the dust settles, it will feel like the roster is crumbling to the ground. It isn't.
They'll sign a few stop gap veterans that slip into in weeks 2 and 3 of free agency. They might even outbid their old pal Zimmer for Adam Jones. They'll draft best player available in April,
When the footballs start flying in September, if the Bengals' safeties are getting burned constantly, A.J. Green is blanketed with triple teams left and right and no one else can get open; then you can panic. For now, let the entire offseason play out. Give this front office the benefit of the doubt. Given their track record over the last five years, they've earned it.
BE PREPARED. The Bengals are going to come out of the gate slow like they always do. They will probably lose multiple players in the first week and not do much to replace them. Don't jump. Come in off the ledge. All of the national pundits will be incredulous,
"Cincinnati could be a contender. They have all kinds of cap space. They have to step up. What are they doing? Their ownership is cheap."
Everyone knows free agency is a slippery slope. Yet, every year, the teams that slow play it get shamed for not filling needs and the teams that invest heavily generate buzz. There's a reason Cincinnati has a strong roster with cap space to spare. They are disciplined. They almost never chase ascending players that carry a price tag of projected market value. Sometimes that works, but it's like playing the stock market. The Bengals tend to stick with paying for known commodities and it has served them well. When they see a great player, they have no problem paying him like a great player. They avoid paying good players like they are going to be great players. They draft for depth so that when someone leaves it is next man up. Here's how I see it playing out.
Safeties first? Or receivers? Either way, both figure to go quick. Teams looking for WR help are staring at a free agency crop led by... well, Jones followed by players like Travis Benjamin, Anquan Boldin, Sanu, and Rishard Matthews. If teams don't quench their receiver thirst with veterans, their alternative will be to dip into a mediocre draft class thin on high-end talent. Sure it would be nice to have Sanu and Jones back, but they will most likely command salaries well above their current market value. Somebody is going to hit them with an offer they can't refuse and most likely it will happen quickly.
The safeties are in a similar boat. The safety position is trending up these days and George Iloka figures to ride that wave to a massive payday. I don't think Reggie Nelson will be far behind. It might take a little longer He's older than some teams would like, but there are too many shaky secondaries out there for Nelson to last too long. I'm holding out hope they splurge a little and retain one of these two, but right now I'm assuming both will be gone.
Andre Smith will sign elsewhere towards the end of the first week along with somebody like Vinny Rey and it will feel like the sky is falling. Beyond that, I think they have a decent shot at Leon Hall, Gilberry, Lamur, Thompson, and Sims. The key will be Adam Jones. If they retain him, they at least have one known entity to build around in the back half of the defense. Heading into the offseason, I thought the chances of keeping him were pretty good, but now it sounds like he has a few other suitors pursuing him. He will receive offers, but he wants to stay. It could go either way.
BE PREPARED. When the dust settles, it will feel like the roster is crumbling to the ground. It isn't.
They'll sign a few stop gap veterans that slip into in weeks 2 and 3 of free agency. They might even outbid their old pal Zimmer for Adam Jones. They'll draft best player available in April,
When the footballs start flying in September, if the Bengals' safeties are getting burned constantly, A.J. Green is blanketed with triple teams left and right and no one else can get open; then you can panic. For now, let the entire offseason play out. Give this front office the benefit of the doubt. Given their track record over the last five years, they've earned it.
Thursday, February 4, 2016
Wild Card. Wild Game.
It's Super Bowl Week! What better time to recap the Bengals getting ousted in the wild card round than now? Better late than never I guess. I've been chipping away at this. It is stale enough now that I would normally just can this post like I have most of what I've wanted to write about the past few years, but I have a few things I need to get off my chest. Enjoy the Super Bowl. Amazingly, my prediction from September is still alive!
"Peyton Manning has a key scramble in the second half where he rolls out right and dives for a first down, helicoptering in the air as he bounces off a defender. The T.V. cameras show John Elway 17,000 times in the press box between the time of the play and the end of the game."
Yes, I just quoted my blog, on my own blog. Who was my pick for the other Super Bowl team? Never mind that. Let's just say I bought into the preseason hype a little too hard and that team's coach recently got hired to coach San Francisco. And if you were wondering, I picked Carolina to go 8-8. Oh well. Hats off to the Panthers. Regardless, I'm sticking with my pick of the Broncos. This feels a little bit like the Seattle vs. Denver matchup a couple of years ago with Denver playing the Seattle role. I don't think it will be a blowout, but I think once again the number 1 defense takes down the number 1 offense. Here's my reaction to the Bengals/Steelers slobber knocker from a few weeks ago...
Disgrace?
From the weather, to the play, to the personal conduct on the field, the whole night a few weeks ago at Paul Brown Stadium was an ugly ball of slop. There has been some back and forth to the reaction from the game, but it feels like Cincinnati has taken the brunt of the public scorn (particularly on the T.V. broadcast) while outside of Joey Porter, Pittsburgh is being given a little bit of a free pass. Let's recalibrate. The ugliest moment of the night came after the Ryan Shazier hit on Giovanni Bernard. No, not the hit itself. It was viscious. But after going back and rewatching it, Shazier didn't really launch at Bernard as much as I originally thought. He did lower the crown of his helmet and drive through Bernard's face in what should have been a penalty, but on my second look the hit simply looked like a dangerous tackle with sloppy technique rather than an intentionally dirty hit. Then again was it a penalty? Mike Carey said no. Mike Pereira said no. It certainly looked scary. The thing is, the rule is too complex right now. The officials have to think too much. If the receiver catches the ball and takes 1.75 steps, he establishes himself as a runner and THEN he can get speared in the face legally.. but only if he's outside the tackle box. I don't know and I'm not sure anyone else does either. Even the Bengals defensive coordinator who used to be a linebackers coach was quoted that he didn't know what was a penalty any more. Anyway, penalty or not the real ugliness came in the moments after the hit. If you remember, there was a sequence while Bernard was getting attended to when the camera cut back to a fracas between Jeremy Hill and about four Steeler players shoving each other. More players inevitably gathered in a minor skirmish that was broken up shortly after it began. Simms and Nance, journalistic sleuths that they are, got their feathers all ruffled that Hill had lost his composure and that the game was getting out of hand, but they conveniently neglected to point out what Hill was so upset about. Watch the sequence again. As the camera pans to the players shoving each other you can see Shazier slink off with one of his goon buddies. Then they decide while Bernard is still lying on the field it's a good time to walk out to the 50 yard line and do their little crab walk celebration dance. I'm not sure why a linebacker needs to celebrate a tackle, let alone to celebrate a tackle that endangered another player's life and endangered the sport as we know it. I'm not sure what to say about it other than, I guess at least now we know what Ryan Shazier is.
Here's a screen shot of the scrum after the hit on Bernard. Click on the picture to see the full width of the screen shot.
Zoom in on the top right corner. There's number 50, Shazier, with his character on full display. From the footage it looks like Kevin Huber takes exception to their little dance and another fine member of the Steelers' staff starts shouting back at him.
As for the Steelers, I was at the playoff game in 2005 when Carson Palmer got von Oelhoffened. I saw the Pittsburgh bench clapping and pumping their fists while Palmer writhed around on the field in pain. I had a terrible towel waved in my face by some congenial Pittsburgh fan while it all went down. Ten years later. Different coaches. Different players. Same franchise. Call Cincinnati "disgraceful" all you want Jim Nance, but don't forget what Pittsburgh really is. And if you forget, ask Tyler Eifert. And if Eifert forgets, ask Kevin Huber. And if Huber forgets ask Keith Rivers. And if Rivers forgets ask Carson Palmer.
No, the Bengals aren't perfect, but at least they're not Pittsburgh. Here are some quick hits from the rest of the night.
Losers of the Night:
Vontaze Burfict
There has been public outcry that Burfict is out of control. "He has to be stopped!" Apparently the NFL agrees as they decided to suspend him for 3 games next season. Slow down. Go back and look at the hit again. (In my biased opinion) I don't think it was a dirty hit. Sure watching it on T.V. in slow motion, it is obvious the ball was well past the point of being catchable and Burfict appears to lunge in for a head shot. Watch the angle from down field. He is a linebacker in coverage. He is sprinting back and across the field trying intercept a receiver running a slant pattern in the opposite direction. He's not tracking the ball. He just knows he has to break up the pass and he lunges when he gets to the catch point to potentially break up the pass. It happens all the time. The pass comes. It is off target. The defender follows through and makes contact with his shoulder to make sure. Brown happened to extend and his head got clipped. It was definitely a penalty. Burfict sloppily lunged because he was half a step late to the play, but like the Shazier hit it was just a football play. I can't vilify Burfict for it.
My issue was more with the activity throughout the night after the whistle. Yes, he has to play with an edge. Yes, he has to be aggressive. But you have to channel it. Every little thing that happened, these guys have to puff out their chest, stick their nose in the other guy's face and run their mouth. Burfict, c'mon man. What exactly are you trying to accomplish? Make plays. Win games. Make money. That's what you are trying to do. All of the extra crap just gets in the way. It's time to grow up. Focus whistle to whistle and then move on.
Adam Jones:
Ditto on that one with Adam Jones. Something's got to give. He turned in the best season of his career. He's on the verge of a fat contract in free agency and now people are whispering maybe even the Bengals wouldn't want him back (for the record, I think they'll absolutely re-sign him, but still). "He wears his emotions on his sleeve." That's a cop out. You can be emotional and still not out of control. Then Jones decided to double down and rant post game about "Jerry Porter" and Antonio Brown deserving a "Grammy" (Oh Adam Jones. Buddy. Almost any other awards show would have worked). Although somewhat comical (like the Oscars), it was the last thing anyone needed (or the Emmy's). The Instagram post after the game maybe you could condone as an emotional reaction (how about the Tony's?), but then he went on the radio the next day and kept after it (the Golden Globes literally JUST happened). Shout it in the mirror or do whatever you have to do. Just walk away from the microphone (SAG awards, People's Choice...).
Domata Peko:
Peko was a guy I thought at the beginning of the year was on the outer fringe of his useful playing career, but it seemed like it was beneficial to keep him around for his leadership. He had a bit of a resurgence on the field this year, but for me it all went up in smoke in the second quarter. It was 2nd and 10. The defense made a nice play with coverage holding up long enough for Atkins to get to Roethlisberger for a sack. Next thing you know Peko comes sprinting onto the field for no apparent reason with his coat on. It wasn't really clear what he was doing, but he had some kind of exchange with a Steeler and the Bengals got slapped with a 15 yard penalty. On a night when they needed every last bit of composure they could muster, one of their captains pulling a stunt like that was pretty unacceptable.
Winners of the Night:
Andrew Whitworth:
Whitworth on the other hand acted like a captain should. He competed hard, he didn't lose his cool during the game, and he said the right things after the game. Thank you Andrew Whitworth for representing our team well. I don't know how the next couple of years will shake out. Here's to hoping you finish up wearing orange and black.
Andre Smith:
The beginning of his career was riddled with injuries, and his healthy seasons have been marked with some inconsistencies. Overall, he has been a solid player, but previous to this last game I felt indifferent about whether they should let him walk or try to keep him around for another contract. That said, he won a few brownie points in my book (as if that counts for anything) in what might have been his last game as a Bengal. The main sequence I appreciated came right after the Shazier hit. Hill started the scrum with a third of the Steelers defense and it wasn't long before a handful of Bengals joined the fray. Not surprisingly, Burfict ran off the sideline and inserted himself right up to the front of the shoving match. After a few moments it was unclear if the refs were going to get control of the situation or if it was going to get messy. Next thing you know, you see a couple of Bengals offensive lineman trotting over, one of which was Smith. Smith calmly slipped his helmet on, reached into the mass of players, grabbed Burfict by the collar, yanked him back, and shuttled him back to the sideline. Then the whole thing defused from there. With hot-heads running amuck all night, it was a refreshing sight to see. As of right now, it looks like resigning Smith in free agency is a luxury the team can't afford, but at least he went out on a positive note. Best of luck with the rest of your career Smith.
The Bengals Coaching Staff
I thought it was an all around professional performance by the Bengals coaching staff. They managed to navigate the whole night without hair pulling/hip tossing any opposing players. They had no unsportsmanlike conduct penalties. They weren't caught on the field shouting expletives at opposing players. There were no crab dances performed by any member of the staff. Novel concept right?
The Steelers Organization
As evidenced by the photos above, the Steelers really proved they have an excellent staff in place capable of molding their young players into fine professionals. Now I'm laying it on too thick. But the point is, this game was bad. In an NFL season that overall seemed to have a stench to it that it couldn't shake, this game was the moldy icing on top. Both teams contributed. Both teams have to do better. And the league has to do better. It was a hard season to watch. Seemingly every recap of every game was saddled with the disclaimer, "XXXX YYYYY player had a great game, but he went out with an injury in the second half. He's out for the year." With every massive collision, there was a little voice ringing in the back of my head, "how much did that hit take off that guy's life? Minutes? Days? Years?" The players are too big. The protective equipment isn't good enough. The rules aren't aggressive enough at modifying behavior. I feel like I'm less of a football fan from watching this wild card game. Yes, I'll come back. So will everyone else. For now. But you can see the cracks in the foundation. Sooner or later there is going to be a trickle down effect that is going to lead to financial impact on the league. I don't know if it will be next year or five years from now, but it is going to happen. Ramp up drug testing. Aggressively develop better protective gear. Simplify the rules and legislate crown of the helmet hits out of the game. The league has to move and they have to move fast. If not, I don't know where we'll be in 10 years. More than likely everything will have changed. The NHL seems to be doing a better job at evolving towards safer play. Maybe we'll turn to hockey. Maybe this blog will change. NHL Tinted Blue. Check back in next week and I'll give you my take on who the Blue Jackets will take with their second round pick in the draft. I hope it doesn't come to that. Nothing against hockey. I think it might be the most underrated sport. But football is our sport. It is ingrained in our culture now. I just hope we get to keep it.
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