Mock 10 + 7... Part 1

The 2012 combine is in the books. Players will still jockey for position at their pro days and team needs will shuffle throughout free agency but here’s a breakdown of how the top ten might play out. With the Bengals picking 17, I’ll even run through 11-17 for good measure.

1. Indianapolis

The Manning saga is still in full swing, but whatever happens, everyone seems to be on the same page that Andrew Luck is still Indianapolis bound. It’s the right move for Indy. There’s too much risk to stick with Manning, and Luck is the best QB prospect since…well, he’s the best I’ve seen. That only covers the last ten years or so where I was really in tune with things, but the point is, he’s too good to pass up. People have thrown out Elway comparisons. Elway’s days as a draft prospect predate my vantage point, but I don’t think Luck’s arm strength is quite in the same league as Elway’s. Luck’s arm is strong enough though, and I don’t think he really has any weaknesses anywhere else. Usually analysts will talk about prospects having a high ceiling or a low floor, but I don’t think I’ve ever heard of anyone having both. Luck is that guy. If he’s great you could have an all-timer. If not, you probably still have a serviceable QB.

Ironically, despite all that, it feels like people have cooled on Luck. Have scouts uncovered some subtle flaw in his game? Did GMs interviewing him notice a crazed facial tick that calls into question his mental stability? Nope and nope. The hype surrounding him just went too far. Sports media has foamed over on this kid to the point that the best draft prospect in a quarter century has become overrated. Luck is fine. Now that everyone realizes he isn’t going to come into the league and immediately start pooping out Lombardi trophies, the buzz has died down a little.

Luck going number one is a big story, but as most everyone has been latched onto for the last few months, it is secondary to an even bigger story: the game of chicken between Colts owner Jim Irsay and Peyton Manning. The general media focus has been locked in on when the conclusion to the standoff will occur and where Manning’s eventual landing spot will be. In fact, some people are incredulous that nothing has happened yet. Why can’t these guys sit down and figure this out? Why is this dragging out? Because it’s in Irsay’s best interest to drag it out. First of all, what if Andrew Luck falls off a roller coaster tomorrow and breaks every bone in his body? Peyton Manning is a pretty decent back-up plan. Second of all, Manning is an asset. Irsay is right to not give up his asset until he’s absolutely sure he can’t get anything back in return for him. That doesn’t happen until March 8.

That said, the real question we’re glossing over is whether Indianapolis can leverage the situation into any compensation. The Colts can’t trade Manning without paying him a $28 million bonus unless Manning agrees to restructure his contract. Some have rightfully made the point there’s no way Manning will restructure to allow the Colts to pry valuable picks/players away from his future team. Therefore, the whole thing becomes a matter of whether Indy can pay the bonus and make the salary cap structure work. If they can swing it, they should do it even if they have to suffer in the short term. I don’t care if they have to dig the copper pipes out of their brand new stadium to raise money. Otherwise, they’ll be four years into Luck’s career before they get around to bringing in high end receiving targets that will take three more years to develop. If Daniel Snyder calls them up and offers two first rounders and $10 million - done. Pay Manning his money and sort everything else out later.

Here’s another angle. Irsay doesn’t want to oust Manning. What if he doesn’t? Luck is the more valuable player right now anyway. What if the Colts put all their money on “18” and spin the wheel. I wouldn’t do it. It would be insane. But let’s say Cleveland picks up the phone and offers their entire 2012 draft and their 2013 first rounder. If you’re counting, that’s three first round picks including the number four pick this year. All of a sudden Indianapolis has Manning throwing to Justin Blackmon for the next three years while they dump the rest of their drafts (yes, they would have so many picks I say drafts as in plural) into offensive and defensive line talent and a developmental QB. When a guy like Luck falls into your lap you’d be crazy to pass him up. Then again, have you read any of Irsay’s tweets? The guy is a little off. If Manning steps on a field on March 7^th for a workout and starts slinging the ball around the field like it’s 1999…watch out. Irsay could send shockwaves through the league.

Okay, I burned a page and a half up on what happens to be one of the most straight forward picks possible. If I’m not careful, Manning will be house hunting in Phoenix before I get this thing posted. So here’s part one, and I fill you in on the rest in part 2…and maybe part 3. Who knows?

The Perfect Outcome

Well, we made it through Super Bowl week. I don’t know about you all, but I’m not sure I could have hung on much longer. If I hear the words “Gronk” (stop calling him “Gronk”! You’re not his buddy. You’re not his teammate. If you were a fan of the team I’d still frown on it, but you’re not. You’re a radio host.. or a Sports Center anchor.. or a weather man.. or whatever. Come on.), “nerve regeneration”, or “that Giants defensive line” one more time I think my head is going to pop. Anyway, on to more important things. It’s time to frame up the year of the Cincinnati Bengals and peek forward to 2012.

Crash and Burn?

It’s easy to come off a big loss like the Bengals season ender last month and feel disappointed. I had a hard time not grinding my teeth as it played out. The two teams traded punches then Cincy took a huge blow to the body with that improbable interception for a TD at the end of the first half. They tried to fight through it, but the damage was done. The Bengals felt the immense playoff pressure in the second half and they cracked. It was miserable. Nonetheless, step back. Take solace. I argue the end of the year could not have played out any better.

When the Bengals first made the playoffs I was disappointed. I thought there would have been psychological value to beating Baltimore to earn a playoff berth. The momentous victory would have put the team on the map and laid the foundation for being able to step into the ring with the big boys next year as a contender. Instead, at 0-7 for the year against playoff teams, Cincy remained the Scrappy Doo of the league. To top it off they somehow still managed to back their way into the postseason. The way I figured it, making the playoffs was a burden more than anything. It meant losing draft position and being forced to play another game when a major injury to key players such as Andy Dalton, A.J. Green, Andrew Whitworth, Andre Smith, Carlos Dunlap, Geno Atkins, or Domata Peko would have been a major blow to their 2012 campaign (note: as a lifelong Bengals fan, I went into wild card weekend considering a Green blown out knee in week 18 to be a foregone conclusion). Mike Brown had a greater chance of winning the lottery without buying a ticket than the Bengals had of navigating their way through the playoffs this season. Without the benefit of a notch in their belt from a big win like week 17 vs. Baltimore, what was the point of getting in?

As it turns out, I was wrong. The Bengals may not have had a shot of doing damage in this year’s postseason, but as I watched the game unfold it became clear that the league’s third youngest roster benefited greatly from the game of playoff experience. Better yet, a game of road playoff experience is just what they needed. The environment was hostile. The pressure was massive. The Bengals faltered. They were beaten soundly by a team they had already proven they could compete against after having dominated for three quarters against the Texans earlier in the year. If this group of players is fortunate enough to make the playoffs again, maybe next time they don’t blink. Maybe next time they maintain composure for 60 minutes. Maybe next time, they’ll be ready.

As a bonus, despite my eternal pessimism the price tag of playing the extra game turned out to be pretty reasonable. Cincy suffered no major injuries and dropped only one slot of draft position (the icing on the cake was Denver upsetting Pittsburgh, dropping the Broncos down and moving the Bengals up). Now that the dust has settled, 2011 might not have had a fairy tale ending for Bengals fans, but it did close with one more step forward in a season of progress. Next up, the Cincinnati front office will look to keep the momentum going in the draft.

Mid Round 1 Muddy Waters

Before we break down the Bengals’ roster weaknesses and highlight which prospects they might try to snag with their first round draft picks, let’s get a feel for the 2012 draft landscape. This year’s draft class is officially locked in. The headlines have centered around quarterbacks Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III, but how is the rest of the field shaping up? At first glance, I think this year’s class looks relatively average, but it might turn out to be sneaky good. Quite a few well-known players elected to return to school taking away some star power (notably quarterbacks Matt Barkley of USC and Landry Jones of Oklahoma) and some depth (players like Notre Dame’s Monti Te’o, ILB and Georgia’s Jarvis Jones, OLB/DE) from the talent pool. What’s left is a solid top 10 or 12, a few clear-cut second tier players, and an all out scrum for positioning in the back half of the first round. That’s not to say there won’t be great players taken outside the top 15 (there always are), but the hierarchy is mushy at this point. Maybe it firms up and maybe it doesn’t, but right now I think you might see a lot of fluidity between picks 20 and 40 as teams slide around trying pick up what think is good value.

Position-wise, there is a stark contrast between the 2012 and 2011 crops. Defensive line has been the meat of the previous two drafts and offensive line talent has been watered down. This year, the first round will be offensive-line-heavy led by the first elite-level OT prospect since Jake Long, Matt Kalil (USC), while the defensive line crop lacks high-end talent. Last year the quarterback class was a jumble. It took Cam Newton until April to emerge as the favorite for the number one pick and even then he had plenty of detractors. Conversely, Luck’s name has been written in pen at the top of the first round for the last six months and people are already starting to pencil in RG3 at number 2. In 2011, hybrid DE/OLB Von Miller was the only round 1 linebacker selected. This year you’ll see two to four true linebackers and at least two hybrids. Running back was an after thought last year with Heisman trophy winner Mark Ingram more or less sneaking into the bottom of the first round, but this year Trent Richardson (Alabama) should return RB talent back to the top half of the first round and there could be two to three backs total taken on day 1. Overall, it’s safe to say the draft script has flipped significantly for 2012. How does this all shake out for the Bengals? Having secured Oakland’s first round pick in the Carson Palmer trade, Cincinnati is sitting with the 17 and 21 overall picks. The talent plateau through the middle of the first round might make it seem like a bad year to have two mid-round one picks, but I think they have a pretty good chance to plug some holes. Time to frame up my wish list for the Bengals’ roster and outline which prospects might land in Cincinnati.

Still Room for Improvement

Top to bottom, the Bengals roster is in better shape than it has been in decades. However, this is a crucial offseason that could set the franchise up for something great or flush them back to mediocrity. With free-agency pending, it’s hard to get into too much player personnel detail, but here are my thoughts on where the team is at on both sides of the ball and what directions they might go in the first round of the draft.

Offense:

First, let’s cross off a few positions as options in round 1. Andy Dalton exceeded expectations this year. How good can he be? Some would argue the ceiling is low. I don’t think he is a “carry the team on his shoulders” kind of guy, but he’s good enough. Scratch quarterback off the list. Ditto on offensive tackle. Free agency might leave some voids in the backup tackle slots on the depth chart, but barring injury the Bengals are set with their starters. I’m good with Kyle Cook at center, and tight end won’t draw any first round consideration either. Now things get a little more serious…

RB
A lot of people are talking about a need for Cincinnati to upgrade at running back. In fact, multiple mock drafts have the Bengals opting for the big play potential of Lamar Miller (Miami) or David Wilson (Virginia Tech) with one of their two picks. Myself, I’d be okay if they went into next season with the same stable of players they have right now. If Benson doesn’t come back, take a shot with a third or fourth rounder, but I’d rather see them fill other needs in round 1.

WR
The Bengals hit it big with WR in round one in 2011, so it’s an unlikely direction this year right? Oh wait, Jordan Shipley is coming off a torn Achilles, Jerome Simpson is in legal trouble, and Andre Caldwell still just looks so-so. All of a sudden, picking a running mate for Green doesn’t look half bad, and 21 might be just about the right slot for Alshon Jeffrey (South Carolina), Kendall Wright (Baylor), or Michael Floyd (Notre Dame). I’m not ready to call WR a need yet, but keep an eye on how things play out. If there’s no value at other positions, it just might be the right thing to do.

G
For the second year running, I’d say guard tops out Cincy’s needs list. How many third and one plays did the Bengals fail to convert last year? The power run game was iffy, and they saw nothing but pressure up the middle on passing downs. Tell Nate Livings to Geaux back to Louisiana, start planning Bobbie Williams’ retirement party, and let’s start over. David DeCastro (Standford) would be outstanding. Unfortunately, he’s generating a little too much buzz right now and is getting projected in the 13 to 15 range. This is where the little things hurt like Matt Barkley staying in school. It bumps everyone else up one more slot. Luckily, Cordy Glenn (Georgia) might be a decent consolation prize. If Clint Boling develops, maybe they go with a tandem of Ga. guards heading into 2012.

The offense has rebounded from the collapse of the Palmer/Ocho era faster than most expected, but to keep things rolling in the right direction they need to look at interior offensive lineman in the early rounds and scour for RB’s and WR’s later on.

Defense:

D-Line
Much like other positions, free agency might chip away defensive line depth, but I don’t think defensive end is in play in round 1. Frostee Rucker and Jonathan Fanene are great rotational guys, but can they keep both? If Dunlap stays healthy and has another positive off season, they should be good to go. The emergence of Atkins was huge this year and probably pushes DT out of round one consideration. If I were Cincinnati, I’d try to bring Pat Sims back. He brings grit to the line and makes for about as good of Peko insurance as you could ask for.

LB
I have linebacker as another position towards the top of the needs list. It wouldn’t be the end of the world if they ended up with the same crew, but to take Cincinnati’s defensive unit to the next level an upgrade is needed. Will Manny Lawson be back? Can Rey Maualuga be more consistent (not to mention avoid suspension)? Boston College’s Luke Kuechly would be a great fit, but he should be gone before the Bengals get a shot at him. It might not be a bad idea for Bengals fans to start getting familiar with Vontaze Burfict (Arizona State). People are all over the map on the guy right now, but he’s an electric hitter with good range. Some say he’s a top 20 talent downgraded because of maturity and mental make-up issues (sounds like a Bengal to me). Some say he has matured. Some question whether he deserves first round consideration because they think he just doesn’t get “it” and doubt his speed. If he displays NFL athleticism at the combine, watch out. UNC’s Zach Brown is another guy to keep an eye on. He’d have to work his way up the draft board a little to be in the round 1 mix for Cincy, but supposedly he can fly.

CB
Cornerback is also a spot drawing Bengal-related mock draft attention. The Bengals were thin at the position even before Leon Hall went down last year. How will Hall come back from a torn Achilles (just the thought of having that injury and then trying to backpedal, plant and then drive forward to break up a pass makes my heel throb. Keep your fingers crossed)? I liked the way Nate Clements played down the stretch last year, but does he have another year left in him? Do they try to bring Adam Jones and/or Kelly Jennings back? They need at least one young corner on the roster from this draft, but I don’t know if the value will be right in the first round. Alfonzo Dennard (Nebraska) initially was mentioned in this area, but he’s a little undersized and showed some weaknesses at the Senior Bowl. I’d be surprised if he ends up in the first round. Janoris Jenkins is another name that has come up. Where I wouldn’t mind seeing them gamble on Burfict if they’re comfortable with his attitude, Jenkins scares me to death. He’s ultra talented, but with two drug arrests under his belt already his reliability is a major question mark. The real question is whether the Bengals will get a crack at the number-two-rated corner, Dre Kirkpatrick (Alabama). Initially people were projecting him much higher, but the pass rushers have started to move up the board and he has fallen off. Kirkpatrick is 6’2” with long arms to jam receivers and shed blockers in run support. Said to have only adequate speed, he isn’t necessarily a lockdown guy and sometimes has trouble with quick receivers. He kind of sounds like a bigger, flashier version of Leon Hall who interestingly enough slipped to the Bengals when they were picking eighteenth in ’07. Hopefully history repeats itself, but in the seventeenth slot instead this year.

S
Safety sort of runs parallel to linebacker in terms of needs for the Bengals. If they want the D to be great, they need to upgrade. The current starters have their moments but overall they’re pretty average to below average. Free-agency could send the talent level at the position from a state of caution yellow to code red. I’d think they’d look to add two safeties in free-agency and one with a pretty good chance to make the roster (rounds 1 through 4) in the draft. The only guy definitely in first round consideration is Alabama’s Mark Barron. Early projections have him going in the 15 to 18 range with the most common suitor being the Jets who happen to have just watched their defense lose steam down the stretch two years in a row after season ending injuries to safety Jim Leonhard. Unfortunately, New York happens to be picking at 16 right in front of Cincinnati. The other fly in the ointment is the hernia injury Barron is currently recovering from that will limit his workouts prior to draft day. On the bright side this might scare off safety needy teams like the Cowboys and the Jets and slide Barron safely into the 17 to 21 range. Maybe the injury even slides Barron down past the Bengals. It’s hard to say at this point, but I still have him on my wish list.

The Bengals D took advantage of some blossoming youth and a weak schedule to vault to a top ten ranking in 2011. Unfortunately, they still have a penchant for giving up big plays and looking overwhelmed against higher end offenses. To sure things up, they have to be a little more sure-handed at linebacker and safety and they need some young talent in the pipeline at corner.

If you’re keeping score, pre-free agency I have Cincy’s needs list as guard, corner, safety, and linebacker with the caveat they should be on the lookout for value at WR and RB. That said, there isn’t much separating CB, S, and LB. Good corners are hardest to find and take the longest to develop so I think CB takes precedence (especially if they get a shot at Kirkpatrick). A heady player with a lot of range to cut down on the long runs is what the back 7 really needs. I don’t care if it’s an OLB, MLB, or S, they need a tackling machine to anchor the unit. That’s all for now. The combine kicks off this week. If you’re a Bengals fan, keep an out for DeCastro (G), Kirkpatrick (CB), Glenn (G), and Burfict (MLB). I’ll try to check back in in March to break down how things are shaping up.

That's All Folks

The NFL regular season is complete and it has been a wild year on many levels. For starters, I can’t remember a season shaped quite so heavily by trips to the injured reserve. It started early with the Peyton Manning saga and kept right on going with hamstrings and achilles tendons popping like jiffy pop on asphalt in the Sahara desert. You could probably field a pro bowl squad with the guys that missed significant time this year. Possibly most significant was the quarterback casualties. Part way through the year, it looked like Chicago and Houston were poised to threaten the offensive juggernauts of the league with the well-rounded team approach before Cutler and Schaub bit the dust. After that it was open season for Rodgers and Brees, and the season handicapped by tough luck on the injury front just sort of played out. It’s ironic that a year with such historic offensive performances could be nominally characterized as mediocre. Think about it. Green Bay offense: 9.8. New Orleans Offense: 10.0. Patriots offense: 9.0. Name one other great unit in the league this year. San Francisco defense maybe? I don’t know. Everyone else that wasn’t awful seemed like a weird blend of streakiness that beat up on lesser teams headed up by the awkward, polarizing, sensational, absurd 8-game run of Tebowmania (for the record, I’m surprised that spell check doesn’t recognize Tebowmania).

That is the 2011 season in a nut shell, so without further ado - on to my annual playoff preview. I’m a little late on this so hopefully you catch it before the weekend plays out. If not, maybe you’ll humor me and give it a quick read next week to see how I did.

The NFC

The NFC leads the way with Green Bay and New Orleans firmly at the top of everyone’s power rankings and San Francisco lurking as an under the radar dark horse to make a run at the title. Note: if college football ruled the world there’d be no games for four weeks before the Saints and Packers lined up in a rematch for all the marbles (and of course the other teams would play each other in over-hyped, meaningless exhibition games. That wacky Patriots offense would take on the blue-collar 49ers. Don’t worry Cowboys and Jets, you’ll get in too. Your fans will travel). Thankfully, instead we’ll get NO and SF battling it out in a win or go home grudge match for a crack at the defending champs (seriously college football, wake up).

It will be interesting to track the Saints over the next few weeks. They are probably playing better than anyone but have the toughest road of the contenders. After they out-sprint the Lions, they head outdoors against the one team built to take them down. If they manage to eek out a win over the 49ers, they head to Lambeau field for a chilly shootout with the Pack. I’m not sure they can navigate that yoyo. The Giants/Falcons game could be the closest match-up of the early games but neither (I’ll say Atlanta exploits New York’s shaky secondary) could survive against Green Bay. In week two, San Francisco manages to stop the unstoppable and heads to Green Bay with another large chip on their shoulder (coyly cemented into place by Coach of the Year Jim Harbaugh). I think they give the champs a run for their money but lose in a nail-biter to Rodgers in crunch time. Green Bay punches their ticket to Indianapolis.

The AFC

On the other side of the bracket, I don’t know if Pittsburgh has enough left in the tank to make a run. Their defense is healthy enough to squeak past Denver, but the Patriots will put Big Ben and company out of their misery in the second round. The Steelers title hopes wilted when they missed out on the bye. Winning four straight playoff games is too much for them right now. New England vs. Baltimore will be interesting, but Torrey Smith and Ray Rice seem like a favorable match-up against the Pats’ flawed defense. The Baltimore D does just enough and the Ravens squirt into the Super Bowl by what seems like default.

The Super Bowl

Green Bay is banged up on the offensive line but I don’t know if this could have played out better for them. Like the Patriots, they give up points on D, but they at least have more than a JV secondary. The Ravens can’t hang and the Packers are your repeat champions. It’s hard to do, but general manager Ted Thompson has built a roster capable of winning back-to-back titles. That’s all for now. Keep an eye out for a preview of the draft landscape. The draft order is solidifying and I am getting pumped!

Let 2011 Begin

Well, it’s been a busy summer. Unfortunately, that means I’m behind on my blog posts. Here are some thoughts from around the league for kickoff weekend…

Free Agent Frenzy

Despite the nauseating display of greed and entitlement, the one bright spot to come out of the lockout was an entire offseason furiously crammed into a month and a half. Here a few thoughts from around the league…

Kolb Shipped Cross Country

The Eagles sold high on Kevin Kolb landing an above average CB and a second round draft pick from Arizona. Most people seemed to chalk up the win for Philly in this trade. They raked in great value for an unproven player, but I think long-term the Eagles front office made a mistake. As soon as last season ended, the chatter started. Kolb wants a chance to start. Will the Eagles hold him hostage? Where should Philly trade Kolb? Eventually, Arizona struck the deal and Kolb headed to the desert. The whole time the saga unfolded, I thought to myself, “TRADE VICK. TRADE HIM RIGHT NOW”. The Eagles did an amazing job maneuvering out of the Donavan McNabb era. They handed over the car keys to Kolb. When the injury bug bit, Michael Vick stepped in and ripped off an electrifying season where he proved once again to be a difference maker that could single handedly take over football games. That is fantastic. Intoxicating even. I don’t care. SELL, SELL, SELL! Cash out, while the value is high. The guy is a meteorite. He has 1.5 to 2 years left on his prime, and anyone who thinks he will be able to keep this level of production up as his athletic skills start to erode is looking at this with tunnel vision. Would they have taken heat for walking away from the chance to see what would happen in a full year with Vick at the helm? Absolutely, but you have to take the emotion out of it. The team is built around Kolb. Kolb would give them a 5 to 7 year window. Their current arsenal of offensive weapons should hold up for another 4 to 6 years with time to add more pieces between now and then. The offensive line needs rebuilt (again). The defense is still at least two years away. The defensive line has to mature. They need linebackers. Is there anyone in the country that would bet on Vick playing the whole season? Yet, they opted to push all their chips onto the table for the 2011 season instead of letting it ride on Kolb + whatever resources they could have swindled out of some poor sucker trying to catch a lightning bolt that has already flashed.

Manning Issues

Peyton Manning has had another neck surgery and will likely miss the whole season. I can’t believe this story took so long to play out. The guy had surgery on his neck. As he was rehabbing, stories detailed how the nerves in Manning’s neck needed to regenerate. There were no reports on any major progress or about how close he was to coming back. Clearly he wasn’t going to be ready to take hits from linebackers in September or any time this fall. I wish I would have posted something earlier because now that more information is out I probably sound like revisionist history guy, but c’mon people. Some people are still debating whether or not he is going to come back this year. Seriously? Shut it down. Try to salvage the tail end of his career next year.

With Manning out, the outlook in Indy is bleak. Some are contending this is still going to be a .500 level team, but I don’t see it. Manning has hidden a lot of warts the last four years and they’re all going to show. The offensive line has been below average since Tarik Glenn left. The running game, the receiving personnel, the defense, even the coaching staff: it’s all built based on having Manning under center. Without him, they are in the bottom five tier of the league. You want to talk about interesting, what would Indy do with the number 1 draft pick next year?

2011 Season Rundown:

AFC North:

1. Pittsburgh – 11 wins
2. Baltimore – 8 wins
3. Cleveland – 6 to 7 wins
4. Cincinnati – 6 to 7 wins

This is how most people have it shaking out. However, I think Baltimore falters, Cleveland fails to take the next step, Cincy surprises some people, and all three teams end up with 6 to 8 wins. It’s hard to go two years in a row, but Pittsburgh looks like a Super Bowl Contender.

AFC South:

1. Houston – 10 wins
2. Tennessee - 9 wins
3. Jacksonville- 5 wins
4. Indianapolis – 2 wins

It’s do or die for Houston. I say they come out of the gate fast and fade down the stretch. The Titans have a better season than expected, but get edged out for the division title. The Jags once again go to the well of cutting their starting QB a week before the season. Weird. Andrew Luck to Indy? Go figure.

AFC East:

1. New England – 12 wins
2. New York – 9 wins
3. Miami – 8 wins
4. Buffalo – 6 wins

New England looks like they could get more support from their defense this year. Could be scary. The Jets D is a little overrated and I can’t say I see their offense taking a big step forward. Miami’s D is underrated and surely their offense has to take at least a baby step forward. Buffalo wins a few of the close games they lost last year, but they haven’t done enough to improve their team drastically.

AFC West

1. San Diego – 11wins
2. Kansas City – 8 wins
3. Denver – 7 wins
4. Oakland – 5 wins

San Diego once again is a preseason darling. Can they actually make good on the potential this year? K.C. overcomes a rocky start to claw back to .500. Oakland takes a step back under a rookie head coach. Denver takes a step up under a veteran coach.

NFC North:

1.Green Bay – 12 wins

2. Detroit – 9 wins

3 Chicago – 7 wins

4. Minnesota – 4 wins

Green Bay is the class of the league and could repeat if the o-line stays healthy. Detroit delights its' band wagon followers, but falls short of the wild card. Chicago puts up a fight, but falls apart late. McNabb is not rejuvenated in Minny.

NFC South:

1. New Orleans – 11 wins
2. Tampa Bay - 10 wins
3. Atlanta – 9 wins
4. Carolina – 4 wins

Best division in football. Brees regroups and the Saints reclaim the South. Tampa faded last year due to injury and step forward not backward in ’11. Atlanta was healthy in ’10. Laws of probability dictate that with many large men crashing into each other repeatedly, the result will be different in ’11. Carolina will be better on offense, but the Panthers still have a ways to go on defense.

NFC East:

1. Dallas – 11 wins
2. New York – 9 wins
3. Philladelphia – 8 wins
4. Washington – 6 wins

Romo leads the Boys back to the playoffs. The Giants piece together one of those “things looked so bad in the preseason how did they do that?” seasons. Philly’s O-line still struggles and their front 7 on D won’t hold together.

NFC West:

1. St. Louis – 9 wins
2. Arizona – 8 wins
3. San Francisco – 6 wins
4. Seattle – 3 wins

Bradford shines under McDaniels’ tutelage. Kolb still has a year of inconsistencies to work out of his system. The 49ers are building. Is Pete Carroll’s seat getting hot yet?

Playoffs:

AFC:

1. New England
2. Pittsburgh
3. San Diego
4. Houston
5. New York
6. Titans

Patriots cruise. Steelers run out of gas. Chargers choke again. Houston finally made it, but goes home early. The Jets don’t catch the Pats off guard this time. The Titans somehow squeak in, but don’t hang around long.

NFC:

1. Green Bay
2. Dallas
3. New Orleans
4. St. Louis
5. Tampa Bay
6. New York

Can Green Bay grind their way through the season to a dream match-up of Tom Brady vs. Aaron Rodgers? Dallas is my pick to stamp their ticket to Indy. The Saints peak early. The Rams can’t hang with the more seasoned teams. Tampa does some damage. The Giants can’t get out of the wild card round.

Super Bowl:

New England over Dallas

Bengals Talk

Season Outlook:

Cincinnati is a mess. Andy Dalton is clueless. The Bengals are the worst team in the league. The national media has your Cincinnati Bengals pigeon holed as the favorite in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. Yes, I’m always overly optimistic this time of year, but I don’t think it will be quite that bad. The preseason had rough patches, but it felt like a lot of correctable mistakes as opposed to total deficiencies in personnel. They won four games last year with the hardest schedule in the league. I don’t expect sledding to be quite so rough in 2011. I think they can win two division games, at least split with the AFC South, split with the NFC West, and split with Buffalo/Denver. That tallies up to 7 wins. That’s not where you want to be, but it’s a far cry from being on the clock for the 2012 draft come January 1. Everyone keeps saying, “Rookie quarterback. Rookie quarterback. Rookie quarterback.” Yes, there will be growing pains, but they’ll still get wins. Be patient. Keep your eyes on 2013.

Good Bye J-Jo

The start of free agency was a little deflating to Bengals fans with the loss of free agent cornerback Jonathan Joseph. Flat out, when Joseph was on the field, the defense was better. To me, the full impact didn’t sink in until I really started to think about it and realized he was the best player on the team. Compiled with the rest of the offseason, his departure meant their top offensive and defensive assets had walked out the door.

Minus Joseph, Leon Hall is the top corner and Nate Clements was brought in as a stop-gap replacement. Neither one of these guys are CB1 type of players that can cover elite receivers reliably. Maybe they are good enough to stabilize the back end of the D, but I think high-end passing games in the league will have their way with them. The lone hope is that the kids on the D-line emerge to take some of the pressure off, and Adam Jones comes back in week 7 competent.

Long term, this might actually be a blessing in disguise. Joseph hasn’t exactly been a durable player. It might be better to part ways now when there’s time to look for a replacement rather than endure his salary cap number if he has any major breakdowns in the back half of his career.

Kicking Off

Cleveland over Cincy in week 1 has been discussed as a lock for eliminator pools everywhere. Really? Cleveland is favored by 6.5. Really? Can anyone name a player on Cleveland’s defense? They’re starting the season with a rookie coach and brand new offensive and defensive schemes. Their LG is on IR, the right side of their O-line has been rebuilt again, and they’re starting two rookies on their D-line. Basically, everyone is basing Cleveland’s upside on two games last year under a totally different regime and two quarters of preseason where Colt McCoy moved the ball well. They have a good core on offense, but they are still at least two years away. I’m picking the upset, but I think it’ll be a close game.

Enjoy week 1 everyone. Go Bengals!

And Now We Wait...

Okay, it sounds like this lockout garbage might actually end soon so I’d better rouse myself from this sluggish labor dispute malaise and finish up my draft reaction article before the title is out of date. Don’t take this as if you are off the hook NFL. I’m still pissed at you for your five-month semi-public cat fight over the best way to divvy up the money you’ve swindled out of my pocket as if you were entitled to it all along. Anyway, here’s some draft talk…

Who Dey?

Having received widespread praise for their draft class, one question begs of the Bengals’ personnel department: who are these guys? Often maligned for ignoring character risks and having an inadequate scouting department, Mike Brown’s boys got two thumbs up for their efforts on draft day this year. I liked Cincy’s picks. I’m not doing cartwheels, but I think the war room deserves a nice golf clap. Most are viewing this as one of the top classes because they were able to take an awful situation (franchise QB checked out, best offensive player flaked out) and reload in one fell swoop. Yet, they’ve adopted a draft style that is so passive it’s hard to look at it and say, “Wow they really out-drafted everyone”. They dabbled in trades early in Marvin Lewis’ tenure, but lately this is their thing: sit back and wait. When they see something they like (like the certain red-headed quarterback they covet falling right into their laps), they think about making a move but ultimately they stand pat. They minimize risk by not investing multiple picks to trade up for one player and avoid the gamble of moving down to add more players of lesser value. Instead, they stay put, try to make solid contact, and only swing for the fences when someone else makes a mistake. Great drafts are made by picking prospects lower than they should have been drafted. Reaching is bad. Just-right talent to draft slot picks are okay. Acquiring higher-level prospects than the price you paid is where you make your money. This Bengals class gets a nod from me rather than a fist pump because I think most of their players were just-right picks. With a class that has no real steals but also has no major reaches, their draft grade starts at a “B.” When you look at what they were able to accomplish playing the first and second round picks off each other, the grade gets bumped up to a “B+.” Let’s break down each pick.

1-2 Punch

The first two picks have to be looked at together. I can harp all I want about how their head down, reactionary draft approach holds them back from a truly elite grade, but this is a scenario where it really works.

The A.J. Green pick by itself doesn’t stir the pot for me. I consider it the equivalent of an ugly win. Your team blows somebody out and you get excited. Your team does just enough to eek out a win and you just feel so-so about it. As top-ten WR picks go, Green isn’t in that Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson “there’s no way this guy could mess up” category, but I’d probably rate him towards the top of the next tier somewhere north of Braylon Edwards and Roy Williams territory (let’s hope he turns out better than those two knuckleheads). Green doesn’t boast quite the same deep playmaking hype that characterized Edwards’ draft profile, but he has better hands, mid-range receiving skills, and run-after-catch talent. How’s that for a team switching to a West Coast offense?

Green should fit in nicely. He is a legitimate top-five prospect. So, why couldn’t I get excited about the pick when it happened? I couldn’t really figure it out until about 20 hours later when the Bengals made their second round pick. At four, they still could have picked Patrick Peterson, a player some considered the best in the class. A player that if used correctly could have given the defense something it’s never had. It wouldn’t have been as safe, but could have been special. Instead they made a WR pick that essentially was being made to replace parts they already had in place. On top of that, what good is a top receiver prospect if they don’t have a legit QB?

As it turns out their strategy was to stay true to their board with the fourth pick and wait until the second round to consider QB where the value was more in line with this year’s talent level. It didn’t look good early on as quarterbacks were flying off the board in the top half of the first round. By the twelfth pick, the only top tier QB prospects left were Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick (picture Marvin Lewis sweating bullets). If they missed out on those two, they would have had to wait a round or two for Ryan Mallet or Ricky Stanzi, and it would have been open season on Mike Brown and the Bengals QB situation. Yet, the picks kept ticking by and Dalton was still on the board. I’m sure there were some tense moments when Seattle was on the clock, but the Seahawks decided they had to have Alabama guard James Carpenter. No one traded back into round one, Buffalo passed at the top of round two, and Cincy didn’t waste much time claiming Dalton with the third pick in the second round.

If you believe all of the “we got the guy we wanted all along” rhetoric (which I do), they almost couldn’t have scripted it any better. In today’s ultra-QB-centric league, the tendency is to err on the side of caution when acquiring a future signal caller and fill in the blanks later. Carolina, Tennessee, and Minnesota had cloudy quarterback pictures going into the draft. When push came to shove, all three teams got jittery and reached for targeted players rather than risk missing out on checking their box for quarterback of the future with one of this years top QB’s. By standing by their draft board, the Bengals now have what I thought was so special about Philadelphia’s offense when Kevin Kolb got promoted heading into last year: a young energetic unit brimming with talent poised to blossom at the same time. It could take two to three years, but with Green and Simpson working the sidelines, Shipley and Caldwell manning the slot, and Gresham threatening the seam, they just might have stumbled onto something lethal. If Andre Smith doesn’t bottom out, I feel good about their OT’s. All that’s left is to keep funneling RB’s and interior lineman into the pipeline. In a few years, Baltimore will be realizing Joe Flacco doesn’t have what it takes, Ben Roethlisburger will be shopping for a ranch house because he is no longer capable of going up and down stairs, and the Bengals young O will be ready to show the league what it’s got. Okay, let’s get through season one before we start crowning Dalton the king of the North, but I definitely feel optimistic about the future.

3.

Future offensive leadership secured, Cincy continued methodically checking off their needs from the third round on. Prior to the draft, I started dreaming up scenarios where Von Miller could have fallen to four with the hopes of adding a sideline to sideline strong-side linebacker athletic enough to hold up in coverage, big enough to hold the point of attack, and quick enough to blitz. Dontay Moch is more or less a poor man’s Miller. He has some good film where he shows off his speed and pursuit, but it is against WAC competition. The fantasy of drafting Miller was nice because he would have plugged right in. Moch is going to need some time to catch his football speed up to his raw athleticism (4.4 forty yard dash). I’m excited about the potential, but it makes me nervous. One of the Bengals’ many struggles has been to develop guys like this. Nonetheless, worst-case scenario they have a 250 lb linebacker they can send screaming down the field on special teams for the next few years.

4.

Based on the 2010 season, I had guard as the Bengals’ top offseason need, (Yes, I was still in denial thinking the Carson Palmer divorce wasn’t official and QB was not a need). Heading into day three of the draft, only one of the top five guards was still on the board. I was crossing my fingers for a Clint Boling pick, and for once the Bengals war room did not ignore my mental pleas. I thought this was the one pick where they really got a bargain. Boling has experience at positions all along the line and will fit right in next to Andrew Whitworth.

5.

Needing a body that can stay healthy, infusing some young blood at safety was a must. This pick could almost be lumped together with the Moch pick: unique athletic talent with raw skills that might or might not translate to the NFL but will definitely be an intriguing addition to special teams. When was the last time you saw a 6’4” safety?

6.

Robert Whalen seems like exactly what you want out of sixth round pick. The go-to receiver on a good team, he appears to be a smart blue-collar player (if you can call a Stanford guy blue-collar) that will slot right into the bottom of the depth chart. If they’re really lucky, he turns into a bigger contributor as a possession receiver long-term.

7a.

Cincy used the first of their two seventh round picks to select Korey Lindsey from Southern Illinois. A productive small-school prospect, Lindsey was riding back-to-back All-American seasons to what some (including Gil Brandt) were calling a third round grade. However, two hamstring injuries scuttled his draft stock and the Bengals might have picked up somewhat of a bargain with the 207^th pick. He will be a developmental project, but with Adam Jones’ career on ice and Jonathan Joseph heading into free agency he might even be able to challenge for playing time in some fashion as early as this year.

7b.

Going into the draft I was hoping the Bengals would land a small scat back type to provide more of an outside threat on third downs than they get from a player like Brian Leonard. Yes, Bernard Scott sort of fits that bill, but I think despite being a little light, Scott actually has a chance to transition into every down back territory.

Running back is where I think the Bengals war room missed a little bit of an opportunity as day three played out. They had to take Boling at the top of the fourth. I have no problem with that. Unfortunately, seven running backs were taken before they made their next pick including Kendal Hunter (aka EXACTLY what they need) and Johnny White (one pick before they were on the clock in the fifth), a player ESPN’s Todd McShay raved about pre-draft as one of the most underrated players in the draft. With the talent pool whittled down, the Bengals elected to draft a safety and hold out for a bigger bargain before biting on one of the remaining RB’s. Two more guys who would have been solid fits for what they need, Jacquizz Rodgers and Dion Lewis, both came off the board in the fifth. Cincy again passed in the sixth and ultimately picked from what was left in the seventh.

This is where the Bengals style hurts them and stockpiling picks like New England and Philadelphia comes in handy. If there was someone they really felt good about, they could have moved back into the fourth when the value was right instead of helplessly watching while the RB’s went flying off the board one by one. I’m not going to pretend to know all that much about Jay Finley. He’s Baylor’s all-time leading rusher and led the Big-12 in rushing touchdowns last year in conference play. He very well may blossom into a better pro than he’s being projected, but it really feels like they settled for a lesser prospect than they could have taken if they had been more creative.

Wrap-up:

The Bengals crossed off their top four needs with their first four picks and then used the balance of the draft to bring in developmental talent at the right positions to freshen up the back half of the roster. If I had to nit pick, I’d question whether Moch is going to be able to contribute soon enough. This defense needs two major things: 1. A star (outside of Patrick Peterson, they weren’t going to get that in this draft anyway), and 2. A linebacker to stabilize the middle level of a unit that gives up way too many big running plays. Stay tuned for free agency. Even with holes left to plug on defense, the offense that was in shambles pre-draft now has direction, and firey players like Moch, Sands, and Whalen should upgrade special teams. The league these days is about building windows of opportunity. The important takeaway from this draft is that Cincinnati now has a window. It might not open right away, but the roster at least now appears to be in sync to have some sort of coming of age season X years in the future. It’s unfortunate to give up on the old window so soon when it seemed like there should be a few years of opportunity left. Palmer drudged the franchise out of a two-decade slump and displayed nothing but outstanding character while doing it. To see it all come to a screeching halt because a few drunken fans decided to cuss him out in front of his family and throw garbage on his lawn is disappointing. Regardless, the page has turned and the franchise now has a new face. He appears to be a suitable replacement capable of growing up on the job. The character is there. The pedigree is there. The supporting cast is there. The pieces are in place, and now we wait.

Mock Draft At Last!

It’s crunch time - time to take my annual swing at reading the minds of NFL coaches and GM’s across the league. More than any year I can remember, the theme for the 2011 draft is uncertainty. There is no consensus number one overall pick. There are eleven top ten level prospects and probably another ten to twelve mid round one guys. Beyond that, there isn’t much separating the next 30 to 40 players. Throw in the lack of free agency and the 2011 draft is bound to be unpredictable. Then again, Al Davis doesn’t have a pick in the first round to Raider everyone’s mock drafts so maybe we stand a chance. Probably not though, Jacksonville and Buffalo both have enough of an “out in left field” draft resume to more than carry the torch without Oakland’s help. Without further adieu:

1. Carolina:
The number one overall pick is rarely this wide open, but when you really boil it down, Carolina could go three directions:
1. Draft the top overall player: CB Patrick Peterson
2. Draft their top need: DT Marcell Dareus
3. Draft a cornerstone to build around: top quarterback on their board.
The key here is picking a player to build around. They squandered away their second round pick last year so they need a lot of mileage from the first player they take. Taking a cornerback doesn’t fit that bill, and Dareus has an injury history and hasn’t proven he can be a full time player. That leaves the QBs. Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert have jostled back and forth throughout this process. If it were me, I’d go for the nice solid base hit with Gabbert. (Can you imagine saying that six months ago, “I think the Panthers should play it safe with the number one pick and take Gabbert.”?) Panthers GM Marty Hurney on the other hand is more prone to swinging for the fences.
The Pick: Cam Newton, QB Auburn

2. Denver:
The Broncos are in a good spot. They have to strengthen their defensive line and they have to get younger in the secondary. They will have the freedom to go either way here. There are pictures of Dareus that frighten me. He looks more like a pile of stones than a man. Peterson is an athletic freak. Initially, I thought Dareus was more of a five to ten guy instead of top five, but the more I read about his intense effort and solid character he’s climbed up the ladder. DTs are more bust prone and Dareus has durability flags, but the position priority argument holds here. You can build an air-tight secondary, but it doesn’t do you any good if you can’t at least hold serve in the trenches.
The Pick: Marcell Dareus, DT Alabama

3. Buffalo:
Until early April when everyone realized how hard the Panthers were sniffing around Newton, it seemed like the Auburn QB would be Buffalo bound. There’s an outside shot, Carolina trying to entice the Bills into making an offer, but I don’t think it’s very likely a deal will happen. Everyone is slotting Von Miller here as an instant pass rush injection into the Buffalo defense, but if they draft Miller looking for sacks I think they’ll be disappointed. Let’s pretend the Bills’ decision makers agree. With Newton off the board, do they default to Gabbert? I think they’d opt to roll the dice with their current QB, Ryan Fitzpatrick. Peterson is the guy to watch out for here. Buffalo isn’t shy about ignoring glaring needs in favor of pursuing shiny objects (cough...C.J. Spiller), and if Peterson has anything it’s flash..
The Pick: Patrick Peterson, CB LSU

4. The Cincinnati Bengals:
If Gabbert is still on the board, this is somewhat of a fork-in-the-road pick for the Bengals. Draft a potential franchise QB and start a new era or take one of the elite players in the class and continue the game of chicken with Carson Palmer. Palmer actually isn’t a bad comparison for Gabbert. Imagine if Palmer hadn’t returned for his senior season and you had to guess what kind of player he was going to be. He seems solid. He can make all the throws. By all accounts he’s brimming with character and leadership. I picture Gabbert having a similar career: above average, multiple pro-bowls, never quite in the top tier of QBs. I wouldn’t be upset if they picked Gabbert. It’s better than potentially drifting rudderless for the next five years. It’s just too bad they might have to take the plunge a year or two before they’re ready.

The most common projection for the fourth pick is Georgia wide receiver A.J. Green. Analysts cite WR as one of the Bengals’ top needs under the assumption that the T.Ocho tandem is going to be taking their sideshow elsewhere next year. While I wouldn’t close the book on Chad Johnson’s career in Cincinnati yet, it does seem like bringing in Green would be a nice way to hit the reset button for the receiving corps without a major disruption to the offense. At the same time, if they pass on Green it’s not the end of the world. There may be only two definite first round receiver prospects, but the depth in the second and third rounds is outstanding. Leonard Hankerson (Miami), Tandon Doss (Indiana), Greg Little (North Carolina), Randall Cobb (Kentucky), Jonathan Baldwin (Pittsburgh), Titus Young (Boise State), Torrey Smith (Marylyand), Edmond Gates (Albilene Christian). Big schools, small schools. Tall guys, short guys. Fast guys, quick guys. If they wait, there will be more question marks, but they should be able find whatever type of receiver they are looking for.

What’s the alternative? In this scenario, Patrick Peterson is off the board. The Bengals defensive line coach was seen recently sniffing around Nick Fairley in Alabama. Bringing in a more durable masher to strengthen the interior defensive line and enhance the young pass rushers wouldn’t be a bad option. However, I’m hoping for Von Miller. Yes, I have voiced concerns about Miller, but everyone has him pigeon holed as a 3-4 OLB. I don’t see it. I’m not sure he’s physical enough to square off with OTs one on one, but if you throw him behind a four man line he should be able to hold the point of attack. He’s fast enough to drop into coverage and go sideline to sideline, and he can rush the QB. That considered, strong side linebacker is actually one of the Bengals’ top needs. If they let veteran MLB Dhani Jones walk, they’ll consider shifting Rey Maualuga to the middle in some combination with Roderick Muckleroy. That should be adequate, but they don’t have a great contingency plan for the outside. This defense is prone to giving up big plays against the run. I don’t think that is going to change unless they upgrade the linebacking corps somehow. Maualuga and Keith Rivers/Brandon Johnson make up a solid group, but they will be better players if they’re not asked to be the best linebacker on the field. Miller would upgrade all three positions and provide the x-factor in blitz packages that has been missing.

With Peterson, Miller, Green, Fairley (and even Gabbert) on the board, it almost seems as if the Bengals would be hard-pressed to mess this pick up...which is why I’m predicting they will trade down. I see Washington sitting there at ten and this feels a lot like the Mark Sanchez situation in 2009. You knew he would be there in the five or six range, you didn’t think anyone there would take him, but it just seemed like that’s where he was going to go. Here, you have teams at five, seven, and eight all likely to pull the trigger on Gabbert, and then there’s Washington and Minnesota at 10 and 12 waiting to trade up. It would be an interesting move. They should still have a crack at a pretty good player at 10, and they’d have an extra early second round pick to take their quarterback if he’s there and still tap into the solid crop of second round guard talent. It could work, but I get nervous every time the Bengals try to get cute in the draft (why would we take Steven Jackson when we could trade down and draft Chris Perry?). Regardless, strap in Bengals fans - we’re going for a ride. Washington trades up for Gabbert, and Cincy drops down to number 10. Who will they target? Stay tuned.
The Pick: Blaine Gabbert, QB Missouri

5. Arizona:
With Gabbert swiped right from under their nose, the Cardinals should turn to defense. Analysts will immediately anoint Miller as Arizona’s pass rushing savior. Like I said before, I think Miller would be better off getting rescued by a 4-3 team that can give him better protection and sic him on opposing QB’s more liberally. Despite my edict against drafting 3-4 DE’s early, Nick Fairley would be a better fit here. Having someone with that size/speed combo would be an interesting asset on the edge. Regardless of what this lowly blogger thinks, Miller gets miscast here like Morgan Freeman trying to play Nelson Mandela.
The Pick: Von Miller, OLB Texas A&M

6. Cleveland:
Arizona picks Miller and Cleveland rejoices. Widely considered the third or fourth best player in the class, A.J. Green is a bargain at six. Filling D-line needs is an option, but plugging in a true number one WR is much more beneficial. Their current receivers will be much more effective as WR 2’s and WR 3’s. Colt McCoy will develop faster. Pressure will be relieved off the right side of that o-line. Find a fresh face at RG and/or RT and they’re in business.
The Pick: A.J. Green Georgia

7. San Francisco:
The Niners need a QB and upgrades all over their defense. Peterson is the popular projection but for him to fall to seven would be an upset in my book. Instead San Fran gambles in hopes of hoodwinking a different elite defensive playmaker. Robert Quinn could have been top five but the uncertainty of sitting out a year is enough to drop him to the 49ers.
The Pick: Robert Quinn, OLB/DE North Carolina

8. Tennessee:
I thought they stole Derrick Morgan last year. They could pull another heist if they go with Da’Quan Bowers. However, DT is the bigger need and the off-season hiring of Auburn’s defensive line coach should sway them in a different direction. I’d like to see Miller as a 4-3 LB and Fairley as a 3-4 DE but it looks like I’m going to be disappointed.
The Pick: Nick Fairley, DT Auburn

9. Dallas:
Their secondary was atrocious last year. I don’t know how they stay away from Prince Amukamara, but it looks like they will. OT Tyron Smith had been the popular projection here until recently when talks started to surface of teams wanting to trade up for Julio Jones. I don’t see Jerry Jones trading down. DE would be nice but only if they get a crack at Fairley.
The Pick: Tyron Smith, OT USC

10. Washington: No wait…CINCINNATI!
In this scenario, the Redskins have traded up for their QB and the Bengals are back on the clock. Jones is the most likely choice. Hearing about how he complements his elite receiving skills with aggressive downfield blocking, I get the feeling Marvin Lewis prefers Jones over Green anyway. Besides, you can never have too many top ten draft picks with cracked bones in their feet. If he shakes the durability issues though, ten is great value for Jones. A few minutes of watching him vs. Patrick Peterson in last year’s Alabama/LSU game and I was sold. The guy can get open. Think Roddy White. If Jones is off the board, Bowers or Amukamara would make a decent back-up plan even if they wouldn’t fill as strong of a roster need.
The Pick: Julio Jones, WR Alabama

11. Houston:
With Wade Phillips on board, the Texans are in the market for 3-4 defensive pieces. OLB Aldon Smith will get mentioned, but Amukamara is the best player available. To overtake Indy in the division, they need to beef up a secondary that has annually been one of the worst in the league.
The Pick: Prince Amukamara, CB Nebraska

12. Minnesota:
The Vikings defense has gone stale. What better than a top-five talent, once a candidate for the number one overall pick, to spice things up a bit. Some are predicting Bowers will fall as far as 20 due to concerns with the knee, but I think 12 is his floor.
The Pick: Da’Quan Bowers, DE Clemson

13. Detroit:
The Lions and the draft have a contentious relationship. From epic bust draft picks to the recent blurb in Sports Illustrated on how the Lions sent out an email intended for NFL offices detailing their pre-draft player visit schedule that instead went to the entire league, they’ve had a rough go of it. They would love Amukamara or T. Smith here but with those two gone, I think they’ll look elsewhere position-wise rather than reaching deeper into the CB or OT crops. When you start thinking about the best player available, J.J. Watt comes to mind. He had a monster combine placing near the top for his position in most speed and quickness drills despite weighing in at 290 lbs. He just seems like a player head coach Jim Bates would gravitate towards.
The Pick: J.J. Watt, DE Wisconsin

14. St. Louis:
All hopes of lucking into Julio Jones are gone and the Rams aren’t in a position to squander away picks trying to trade up. Past WR, the Rams should look for upgrades just about everywhere else (besides QB and RB). D-line is still the meat of the value here and coach Steve Spagnuolo knows the importance of being strong up front. I think Muhammad Wilkerson gets the nod. The buzz on him has been cooling and analysts will scratch their heads and wonder if Corey Liuget would have made more sense. In the end, Wilkerson has the higher ceiling.
The Pick: Muhammad Wilkerson, DT Temple

15. Miami:
Despite the predictions of dozens of mock drafts the past few months, people are starting to come to the realization that Miami probably won’t draft Mark Ingram. Without much skill position talent, Miami opts to beef up the o-line. Buoyed by the Pro Bowl campaign last year from his brother, top interior line prospect Mike Pouncey comes off the board here.
The Pick: Mike Pouncey, G/C Florida

16. Jacksonville:
The Jaguars have invested heavily in DEs but have little to show for it. They might as well take another crack at it here. Having played 3-4 DE at Cal., a lot of people slot Cameron Jordan in the same system in the pros. His body looks like it would need to fill in some for that, but he’s built just right to hold down the edge in a 4-3.
The Pick: Cameron Jordan, DE California

17. New England:
In yet another pick where everyone goes, “man why didn’t anyone else take him,” the Patriots could leave us all shaking our heads again here. Aldon Smith is raw but he might be the kind of edge rusher that fills a role that New England has been missing the last few years. The o-line needs new blood, but Smith is too enticing.
The Pick: Aldon Smith, OLB/DE Missouri

18. San Diego:
D-FENSE…D-FENSE…The onslaught continues. This will make 12 out of 18 picks on the defensive side of the ball. The Chargers will mull over a DE here, but they’ll be forced to try to fill the void left by Shawne Merriman’s flameout and Larry English’s lackluster development. Justin Houston is a tweener, but I’m leaning more towards considering him an outside linebacker. I don’t know how much he’ll help in 2011, but the upside is there.
The Pick: Justin Houston, OLB/DE Georgia

19. N.Y. Giants:
The Giants’ linebacker need can’t really be addressed here. DT depth is an option with Liuget still on the board, but if the next tier of OTs last this long, the run starts here. Cracks have formed in their offensive line. If they don’t patch it up now, they might be sorry in a year. Anthony Castonzo isn’t going to dominate the league, but he should develop into a reliable tackle that will fit right in with the Giants’ current crew.
The Pick: Anthony Castonzo, OT Boston College

20. Tampa Bay:
Offensive line could be the sleeper pick in this slot, but they probably opt to continue stocking that defense with young talent. Ryan Kerrigan isn’t the obvious choice but a high-motor guy with a penchant for disrupting offensive flow will be beneficial for the Buccaneers. Raheem Morris will be pleased.
The Pick: Ryan Kerrigan, DE Purdue

21. Kansas City:
The Chiefs are another franchise looking to continue the positive momentum from 2010. This is an opportunity for them to finally finish rebuilding their offensive line. Gabe Carimi should plug into the right side and diversify one of the league’s top rushing attacks.
The Pick: Gabe Carimi, OT Wisconsin

22. Indianapolis:
Injuries depleted their roster on both sides of the ball in 2010, but an erratic offensive line was their true weakness. They’ve had some uncharacteristic draft misses the past few years with o-line picks, but that won’t stop them from taking another crack at it here. Nate Solder has all the physical tools, but will it translate to the field? The back quarter of Peyton Manning’s career will be wasted if they don’t get some stability up front. Solder is worth the gamble.
The Pick: Nate Solder, OT Colorado

23. Philadelphia:
For weeks, analysts have anchored down Jimmy Smith’s draft stock with character concerns. I figured closer to draft time, more and more league scouting opinions would leak and talks of Smith dropping into the second round would go away. Sure enough, a week before the draft all of a sudden 23 is the worst case scenario. He isn’t that much of a drop off from Peterson and Amukamara, and the off the field problems occurred early in his college career. Philly will be lucky if he falls to them.
The Pick: Jimmy Smith, CB Colorado

24. New Orleans:
The Saints have options with this pick if they want to fill their defensive end need, but their cupboard is bare at outside linebacker. Akeem Ayers hasn’t wowed people in workouts, but his on-field production is good enough to warrant taking him here. It reminds me of Atlanta’s Sean Weatherspoon pick last year, and that worked out just fine.
The Pick: Akeem Ayers, OLB UCLA

25. Seattle:
If Seattle is on the clock and the third quarterback hasn’t been taken yet, things could get very interesting in the last eight picks on Thursday night. The Seahawks will get a few phone calls and could certainly take a quarterback themselves. For some reason, I think cooler heads prevail and they opt for a value pick. However, I wouldn’t feel quite right if I predicted Pete Carrol’s pick to be totally logical. They ignore the lineman available and surprise some people with a running back pick.
The Pick: Mark Ingram, RB Alabama

26. Baltimore:
The Ravens are ready to trade back until Liuget falls right into their laps. He drops because he doesn’t seem like a sexy pick, but he is an above average lineman with the versatility to play multiple positions. He is the kind of player that G.M. Ozzie Newsome seems to accumulate.
The Pick: Corey Liuget, DT Illinois

27. Atlanta:
The Falcons need defensive end production and John Abraham isn’t getting any younger. Adrian Clayborn is available because of physical question marks, but the value at a high need position is too much for Atlanta to pass up.
The Pick: Adrian Clayborn, DE Iowa

28. New England:
The Patriots will milk this one to the wire as teams continue to try to trade up. In the end, they need a contingency for the impending Logan Mankins divorce. Danny Watkins is a hard-nosed prospect who leads the solid group of five guards likely to be gone by the end of round 2.
The Pick: Danny Watkins, OG Baylor

29. Chicago:
The Bears are in a tight spot because the offensive line value has dried up and there isn’t another obvious pick for them on the board. Luckily, somebody loves Jake Locker and wants to move up. The Bears can move back ten slots to try to land somebody like Derek Sherrod (Mississippi).
The Pick: Jake Locker, QB Washington

30. N.Y. Jets:
Phil Taylor has been slotted here quite a bit the last few months. The Jets need a monster for the middle of their D, but Taylor just doesn’t seem like a first rounder. If they decide to pass, they’ll still be looking for a new member for their front seven. Brooks Reed has become a hot name the past week. An intense hard-working player with pass rush skills, Reed is a good fit for a defense that had to work too hard last year to generate QB pressure.
The Pick: Brooks Reed, OLB/DE Arizona

31. Pittsburgh:
For the Steelers, the big needs are at O-line and cornerback. Sherrod has been a late riser, but I think it’s finally time for Pittsburgh to take the plunge and use a top pick on a corner. Aaron Williams reminds me of a Pittsburgh corner: nothing flashy, but he gets the job done. If he doesn’t work out, some are projecting he could move to safety.
The Pick: Aaron Williams, CB Texas

32. Green Bay:
The Packers should maintain their receiving corps and look for a backfield weapon, but those needs can wait. They could use a left tackle, but I’m still not biting on Sherrod. Injuries and off the field issues have left them thin at defensive end. They need to maintain a line that can protect Clay Matthews. Cameron Heyward has some injury concerns, but he squeaks into the first round on the strength of his Sugar Bowl performance.
The Pick: Cameron Heyward, DE Ohio State