Happy Draft Day: 2013 Final Mock Draft

Here is my annual mock draft (in, once again, just under the wire).

1. Kansas City: Luke Joeckel, OT Texas A & M

Some say the Chiefs are entertaining Floyd or Jordan. I think they're just trying to bait Jacksonville into moving up one slot.

2. Jacksonville: Dion Jordan, OLB Oregon

New coach and former Seahawks defensive coordinator, Gus Bradley, will look for someone to build his defense around. Jordan, a 6'6" pass rusher capable of covering receivers in the slot meets that description.

3. Oakland: Star Lotulelei, DT Utah

SELL SELL SELL. That should be Oakland's motto. They gutted their roster. Now they need picks. Drafting a lineman and then waiting until the third round to pick again doesn't do them any good. If they can trade down twice and turn this pick into three to four picks on day two of the draft, they're in business. Unfortunately, I'm not sure the frenzy to trade up for the OT's starts until next pick...

4.     Philadelphia: Eric Fisher, OT Central Michigan (Miami trades up)

...and Philly capitalizes. Miami or San Diego pulls the trigger rather than waiting until Fisher is off the board and the price goes up.

5.     Detroit: Lane Johnson, OT Oklahoma

Detroit's LT retired. They breathed a sigh of relief when non-tackles went two and three. Now they have a new LT.

6.     Cleveland: Dee Milliner, CB Alabama

Floyd isn't a great fit for a 3-4 defense. Milliner is the next best available player and he just so happens to play one of the Browns’ need positions. Rumor has it, Atlanta wants to move up for Milliner. Another potential blockbuster Cleveland /Atlanta draft day trade? It could be interesting.

7.     Arizona: Barkevious Mingo, DE LSU

The OT's are gone so the Cardinals resign themselves to gambling on Mingo's athleticism. Floyd continues to fall based on scheme fit...

8.     Buffalo: Sharrif Floyd, DT Florida

... and Buffalo pounces. It's not a strong need, but Floyd is too good. They'll worry about figuring out how to get their hands on Ryan Nassib later.

9.     New York Jets: Tavon Austin, WR West Virginia

Emboldened by the extra draft pick from the Revis trade, the Jets reach for the darling of the 2013 draft class. The team with the least offensive firepower in the league now has a weapon. Never mind that he could walk through a middle school unnoticed. I like the player but think he is miscast as a team's primary target.

10.  Tennessee: Ezekiel Ansah, DE BYU

Everyone has Ansah in the top eight. I'm not sure anyone signs up for that much boom or bust risk that early. Still, the physical tools are undeniable. Tennessee can't resist.

11.  San Diego: Chance Warmack, G Alabama

The Chargers need a whole new offensive line.  Warmack is the surest thing in this draft class.  Who cares if he’s a guard and not a tackle.

12.  Miami: Geno Smith, QB West Virginia (Philadelphia trades down)

Not only does Chip Kelly get his quarterback, but the Eagles manage to trade down to acquire more picks while doing it.  It’s quite a play if they can pull it off.

13.  New York Jets: Tyler Eifert, TE Notre Dame

The team with the least offensive firepower in the league now has two weapons.

14.  Carolina: Sheldon Richardson, DT Missouri

This year’s wire to wire mock draft award for the player that gets mocked to the same team over and over again from January through April goes to Sheldon Richardson and the Carolina Panthers.

15.  New Orleans: D.J. Fluker, OT Alabama

The Saints’ need pieces for their new 3-4 defense, but they take the opportunity here to protect their bread and butter.

16.  St. Louis: Jonathan Cooper, G North Carolina (Dallas trades up)

It won’t matter who the Cowboys start at quarterback until they improve their interior O-line.  Cooper slides and the Boys slide up a few slots to get him.

17.  Pittsburgh: Jarvis Jones

The reviews are mixed on Jarvis Jones, but the Steelers are happy to stop his slide.

18.  Dal: Kenny Vaccaro, S Texas (St. Louis trades down)

The Rams snag more draft ammo and still fill a major need with good value.  Bravo, general manager Les Snead.

19.  New York Giants: Bjoern Werner, DE Florida State

The Giants shrug and take Werner without thinking much about it.  This feels a little like the Ryan Kerrigan pick from a couple years back.

20.  Chicago: Alec Ogletree, LB Georgia

The Bears part ways with their long time star at MLB, but find a plug and play replacement without much trouble.

21.  CINCINNATI:    Xavier Rhodes, CB Florida State (Atlanta trades up)

Maybe this seems like a cop-out, but I think it’s pretty realistic the Bengals don’t stay in this slot.  This is really where teams will start trying to trade back in to land the quarterbacks. In this case, Rhodes falls and Atlanta seizes the opportunity to move up and take him ahead of Minnesota, Indy, and Green Bay. The Bengals move down and hopefully snag an extra third rounder in a year where it pays to have extra third rounders. 

22.  St. Louis: DeAndre Hopkins, WR Clemson

The Rams have young WR speed.  Now they have a precise route runner with vacuum cleaners for hands.

23.  Minnesota: E.J Manuel, QB Florida State (I’m not sure who trades up but, look for three quarterbacks to go in round one)

The big, athletic QB is too enticing for somebody wanting to jump on the read option band wagon.

              

24.  Indianapolis: D.J. Hayden, CB Houston

Hayden should go much higher, but the medical risk is a big concern.

25.  Minnesota: Justin Hunter, WR Tennessee

A big receiver with speed should complement new receiver Greg Jennings nicely.

26.  Green Bay: Ryan Nassib, QB Syracuse (Buffalo trades up)

The Bills can’t resist any longer.  They move up and snag their man.

27.  Houston: Cordarrelle Patterson, WR Tennessee

There is talk of Patterson falling out of the first round, but the open-field explosion is too much to pass up at this point.  Most teams aren’t afraid to gamble at this point in the round.

              

28.  Denver: Arthur Brown, LB Kansas State

They crossed off needs in free-agency, but Denver is still a little lean on linebacker talent.

29.  New England: Datone Jones, DE UCLA

Belichick has to be jonesin’ for picks.  He’s a little light this year.  I’m not sure he has a partner to trade down here though.

30.  Atlanta: John Cyprien, S Florida International (CINCINNATI trades down)

The Bengals pull the trigger on the trade-down again this year.  Cyprien is a two-way safety with attitude.

31.  San Francisco: Jamar Taylor, CB Boise State

Armed with more picks than open roster spots, there’s no telling what the 49ers are going to do.  Their biggest need appears to be in the secondary.           

32.  Baltomore: Terron Armstead, OT Arkansas-Pine Bluff

The Ravens lock up small school talent to groom for the future.

Bengals Summary:

The Bengals could go a number of directions with this draft.  The depth of this class should allow them to draft in just about any position order they want.  Here are some names I like and don’t like:

Cornellius Carradine, DE Florida State:  I probably should have found a slot for Carradine in the first round.  Without the ACL injury, he’s a top 15 player. 

Arthur Brown, LB Kansas State: Brown would add some much needed speed and tackling ability to the back seven.  He’s another candidate in the trade-down scenario. 

Damontre Moore, DE Texas A & M: Moore has pass rushing talent.  I’m not sure if he’ll slide to round two or not, but he seems like the kind of guy the Bengals are always getting in the second round.

Sam Montgomery, DE LSU: Potential solid pick for the bottom of the second round.

Johnathan Franklin, RB UCLA:  The exact type of RB the Bengals need.  I am crossing my fingers already.  I’m not sure if he’ll last to the end of the second round.

Montee Ball, RB Wisconsin: The exact type of RB the Bengals don’t need.  I am crossing my fingers already that they stay away.

Matt Elam, S Florida: Another solid option at safety with some character flags

Ryan Swope, WR Texas A & M: The perfect candidate to supplement Andrew Hawkins in the slot.  Think of him as a better version of Jordan Shipley.  I’m not sure he’ll last until the third round. 

Chris Harper, WR Kansas State: More of a possession receiver.  I’m not sure he fits on the roster but he’d be good value on day three if he lasts that long.

That’s all for now.  Enjoy.  It should be a wild one.

2013 Mock Draft Magic

It’s mock time. It will change over the next month, but here's a snap shot of names being discussed in the top 20. That of course will lead us right up to that magic 21 slot presently owned by your Cincinnati Bengals.

 

1. Kansas City

The Chiefs have traded themselves out of any scenario where they might reach for Geno Smith or Matt Barkley with the Alex Smith deal. (Quick tangent: Chiefs fans were mortified their team put their eggs in A. Smith's solid but uninspiring and somewhat tattered basket. Following a year where the free agency and draft crops netted teams QB’s the likes of Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson, and Ryan Tannehill, it's hard to blame them for feeling mopey. Analysts, for the most part, look at it as a good move to take the initiative to acquire the best player available at the team's most dire need position. At 28 years old with eight years of NFL experience, A. Smith has potential in both the short term and the long term. Personally, I like the fit with Andy Reid, I just think they needed to find a way to keep the second round pick they used to pull off the deal. This draft is all about depth. They were either in line for a really good player or a very valuable trading chip. Instead, they paid premium value when they were essentially bidding against themselves.)  That basically leaves the OT’s duking it out for the number one overall slot.  Scouts are split, but right now we’ll still give the nod to Luke Joeckel.

The Pick: Luke Joeckel, OT Texas A&M

2. Jacksonville

The Jaguars also face the quandary of picking at the top of a draft with no obvious future all-pro prospects.  Their roster has quite a few holes, but there isn’t an obvious need/value fit here. The new front office needs to rate the best player available and go for it. That narrows this pick down to the top corner, the pass rushing DT whose stock is soaring and the OT pushing Joeckel as the top overall pick. Dee Millner’s sub 4.4 40 yard dash at the combine give him just enough boost to get the nod here. 

The Pick: Dee Millner, CB Alabama

3. Oakland

Oakland’s post-Al Davis front office seems to be making all the right moves. Unfortunately, the hole they’re digging themselves out of is pretty deep. Much like Jacksonville, this pick has to be a matter of taking the best player available regardless of need. They should field calls to trade down for more picks if they can.  They need a high volume of players playing for economical salaries. If they must stay put, pass rushing DT’s are hard to find. 

The Pick: Sharrif Floyd, DT Florida

4. Philadelphia

Let the Chip Kelly era begin! The offensive line has to get better, but for now they’ll hope players returning from injury will cure those woes. Switching to more of a hybrid defense, this will most likely be a debate between adding versatile OLB talent and rebuilding their D-line. Kelly will likely be tempted to gamble on his former player, OLB/DE Dion Jordan, but in the end Star Lotulelei is the safer bet (…sort of. Assuming the heart condition detected at the combine turns out to be no big deal that is). Capable of playing 3-4 DE or 4-3 DT, Lotulelei brings scheme flexibility and fits nicely next to last year’s number one pick, Fletcher Cox.

The Pick: Star Lotulelei, DT Utah

5. Detroit

The four teams in front of Detroit mulled over whether to take OT Eric Fisher. The Lions finally pull the trigger. A DE would be nice, but protecting Matthew Stafford should be first priority. 

The Pick: Eric Fisher, OT Central Michgan

6. Cleveland

Cheer up Cleveland fans. I have a feeling your luck is starting to change. New ownership has assembled a pretty impressive front office, and it should only be a matter of time before they mold their roster into one of the league’s best. I have Dion Jordan slotted here. Their recent free-agency acquisition of OLB Paul Kruger calls into question whether they’ll go OLB in this slot, but Jordan is a unique talent capable of dropping into coverage and rushing the passer. I’m sticking with it. 

The Pick: Dion Jordan, OLB/DE Oregon

7. Arizona

Geno Smith generated buzz at his pro day, but the recent word out of Arizona is they aren’t interested in a QB in round one. No team is dumb enough to actually tip their hand to that extent at this stage of the game so believe what you want to believe. For now, we’ll assume it’s true. Past QB, OT is a no-brainer in this slot. Lane Johnson has done nothing but move up draft boards this offseason to the point where he now comes up in discussions right alongside Joeckel and Fisher.

The Pick: Lane Johnson, OT Oklahoma

8. Buffalo

The Bills are once again starting from scratch as they’ve purged their coaching staff and quarterback from last season. With former Syracuse head coach Doug Marrone now holding the clipboard, don’t be surprised if he reaches for one of his former players, QB Ryan Nassib. However, in this scenario, most peoples’ number one QB, Geno Smith is still on the board. Riding the momentum from his pro day, Smith is the man for now.

The Pick: Geno Smith, QB West Virginia

9. New York Jets

Talk about a train wreck. The Jets need to stockpile picks and reshape their roster. Yet, they decided to retain head coach Rex Ryan for next season. With the head coach needing to win now to keep his job and the team needing to launch into all out rebuilding mode, the Jets 2013 season feels like a recipe for disaster. Who knows, maybe it’s a shrewd move to use Ryan as a lame duck head coach in the destruction phase of the rebuilding process to accelerate the next coach’s rehabilitation efforts. More likely, owner Woody Johnson just isn’t ready to give up yet and the Jets opt for OLB in this slot. In that case, Barkevious Mingo feels like he is tailor made to be a Jet. Mingo boasts outstanding potential, but I think he is destined to disappoint at the pro level. As many analysts have detailed, his athleticism is off the charts, but his production on the field doesn’t match his talent. Some downplay it saying it’s more related to how coaches used him at LSU. I can’t get past it. College football is a world of haves and have nots, and LSU’s defense certainly can be placed in the haves category. Mingo was playing with at least three other guys that will go in the first two rounds of the draft and probably another two or three more that will get drafted high in future years.  To not produce with the deck stacked in your favor is a red flag for me. Time will tell.  

The Pick: Barkevious Mingo, OLB/DE LSU

10. Tennessee

The Titans picked up the top guard in free agency, but I don’t think they stop there. Defensive end is a possibility, but I think they continue to invest in the offensive line. They decided a couple of years ago to build their team around their big play running back, Chris Johnson. Now they need to invest in an O-line that can make holes for him. 

The Pick: Jonathan Cooper, G North Carolina

11. San Diego

San Diego is another offensive line that needs rebuilt. Lane Johnson would be a shoe-in but he’s gone already in this scenario. Chance Warmack is pretty much the only player in this draft class anyone considers as an elite prospect for his position. Cooper jumps ahead of him because he’s more athletic and fits better in Tennessee’s scheme, but no one doubts Warmack has the talent to be great. Two guards in the top ten seems outlandish, but scouts say these two guys are the real deal. 

The Pick: Chance Warmack, G Alabama

12. Miami

Miami has grabbed headlines this free agency period, and if this mock plays out they will continue to draw buzz with this pick. Ezekiel Ansah is a 270 pound athletic freak. He has only played football for a couple of years so he comes with growing pains, but teams won’t be able to resist the upside.

The Pick: Ezekiel Ansah, DE BYU

13. Tampa Bay

Tampa has invested a pile of picks in their D-line recently without much to show for it. The way the value is shaking out in this slot, it looks like they'll keep trying. Bjoern Werner was slotted top five early in the process. He's dropped down behind the athletic, high ceiling types lately but you have to figure the Buccaneers would love to nab him this low.

The Pick: Bjoern Werner, DE Florida State

14. Carolina

Right about 13, the WR's start to come into play. DT is the bigger need though and the gap between the day one and day two DT's is much wider than the gap between the WR's. Sheldon Richardson has some top ten buzz and is capable of filling the elusive role of playmaker in the middle of the defensive line.

The Pick: Sheldon Richardson, DT Missouri

15. New Orleans

The Saints could stand to restock their offensive weaponry, but the more pressing need is to acquire fresh blood at linebacker for new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan's 3-4 defense. There will be WR's they can snag later. Alec Ogletree is a sideline to sideline LB that can cover like a safety. Not a bad piece to build a defense around. Ogletree comes off the board and hearts sink in Cincinnati. (If they’re comfortable with the off-the-field baggage, of the players that have some chance of lasting to 21, he should be at the top of Cincy’s board. The way the league is heading, covering the tight end is crucial to competing with the elite teams, and that is what the Bengals’ defense does worst. With Rey “Molasses” Maualuga signed back up to patrol the middle of the field the run defense is in good shape but the pass defense needs help. Take Ogletree to play MLB, move Maualuga back to the strong side and leave Burfict on the weak side. Unfortunately, I don’t think we have to worry about whether or not they’d pull the trigger on that scenario.)

The Pick: Alec Ogletree, LB Georgia

16. St. Louis

It has been an “invest to help Sam Bradford offseason” so far for the Rams. I say it continues. I'm not huge on Keenan Allen but many are comparing him to Reggie Wayne. Don’t rule out Tavon Austin to slide into the Danny Amendola vacancy.

The Pick: Keenan Allen, WR California

17. Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh sits quietly as James Harrison's replacement falls right into their lap. Jarvis Jones was the most productive of the OLB prospects last year. If he clears medically, Pittsburgh won't pass him up.

The Pick: Jarvis Jones, OLB Geogia

18. Dallas

When was the last time Dallas didn't do something flashy in the first round (ok, they took an OT in the top ten in 2011, but still…)? Jerry Jones is itching to do something exciting. You can just feel it. He's doing that little fake smile where he grits his teeth as I type these words. Watch out, the Tavon Austin pick is coming. And once again, Bengals fans' hearts sink. Some still think Austin is a late first rounder because of his size. I don't see it. There's enough buzz about his strong character and toughness, somebody in that 15 to 19 range will bite. The key for Austin will be to land on a team that has a number one receiver. Otherwise he's going to get overused and he won't hold up. Cincinnati is a great fit because they have the WR1, they have the bigger WR2's they can line up outside, they have bigger WR’s they can throw in the slot to run the more physical routes, and they have a small jitterbug receiver that can replicate Austin’s roll when he gets dinged up. More importantly, unlike most other teams in the top 20, they can afford to make a luxury pick (assuming they sign Andre Smith or some other RT in free agency). Their roster is in good shape and they have an extra second rounder to secure players at other need positions (positions like LB and Safety that happen to be deep in day 2 of the draft).
The Pick: Tavon Austin, WR West Virginia

19. New York Giants

It’s pretty easy to project Giants first round picks. Who is the top rated defensive end available? Their thirst for pass rushers might actually be more justified this year. Osi Umeniora is on his way out the door and Justin Tuck appears past his prime. Damontre Moore was slotted in the top ten early on, but a sluggish combine and maturity concerns have chilled his stock. He makes a good investment at 19 though. 

The Pick: Damontre Moore, DE Texas A&M

20. Chicago

The Bears could go a number of directions here including linebacker or safety. I think they pass in favor of offensive weaponry. TE Tyler Eifert brings solid value in this slot. The Bears signed Martellus Bennett in free agency, but he's a little too enigmatic to rely on as more than a stop gap solution. In the meantime new head coach Mark Trestman, known as an offensive innovator, should make good use of both TE's. Eifert is a high-end receiving prospect that should evolve into Jay Cutler's number two target quickly. 
The Pick: Tyler Eifert, TE Notre Dame

21. Cincinnati Bengals

The Ravens are being dismantled in free agency and the Steelers are regrouping. All the Bengals have to do is sign Andre Smith and not screw up this draft and the division is theirs for the taking. Fortunately, the depth of this draft class simplifies things quite a bit. The Bengals could go LB, S, WR, RB, in just about any order (hopefully leaving RB in the back half of that sequence) and address their biggest needs with four decent players. Trading down might also be an option with teams in those top ten slots potentially wanting to move back into the first round to grab the quarterback they like. Dropping ten or fifteen slots isn’t too painful in this draft and they might be able to snag an extra third or 2014 first round pick. If they stay put, I like Ogletree and Austin best out of the players that might be available for reasons referenced above. Unfortunately, it looks like both will be gone by 21. In this scenario, the consolation prize is safety Kenny Vaccaro. Some think it’s a long shot Cincy will take a safety. Mike Zimmer himself scoffed at the notion, “I like our safeties.”  Really? Is that why you picked up Chris Crocker off the street in the middle of the season and started him the rest of the year? Others think there’s no positional value at safety. That doesn’t make any sense either. They are picking at 21. I think just about any position is in play. Ask Pittsburgh and Baltimore if they think picking a safety in the back half of the first round is okay. I’m not saying Vaccaro is going to be Troy Pallamalu or Ed Reed, but let’s not get too crazy with trying to find the golden pick. If there’s a guy there that can contribute, take him. It’s hard to believe that the top safety on most peoples’ boards couldn’t contribute on Cincinnati's roster. 

The Pick: Kenny Vaccaro, S Texas

Other names to watch out for:

D.J. Fluker, OT Alabama:  If the Bengals don’t sign a free agent right tackle, they might replace Smith with another Alabama tackle. He has the size, but is he athletic enough? Some scouts think the team that drafts Fluker will eventually realize he’s a better fit at guard. 

DE’s: 

Bringing back Robert Geathers and Wallace Gillberry was nice, but is it a luxury they can afford? I’m not sure they can pay Michael Johnson long term and plugging in Geathers past next year doesn’t exactly make you feel warm and fuzzy. With Carlos Dunlap heading into free agency next year, the time fill the hole at DE is now. DE’s might be readily available at 21, but I’m not sure there’s a roster spot anymore. Regardless, if they do find a way to stash a rookie somewhere this year here are the names to watch out for:

Damontre Moore, Texas A&M:  I have him going 19 right now, but it’s not unreasonable to think he might fall to 21. 

Corey Lemonier, Auburn: Lemonier’s case is the opposite of the Mingo effect referenced above. He didn’t dominate, but as the lone good player on a bad defense his talents might have been considerably masked. 

Cornellius Carradine, Florida State: Carradine could have graded out as one of the top DE’s in this class if he hadn’t torn his ACL late last season. He might not be ready to go at the start of the season, but he would be a good investment for 2014.   

That’s all for now. We’re closing in on one month until draft day.  Keep an eye out for my annual full first round mock.