2019 Mock Draft!

I made it just under wire!  Here are my annual futile predictions for the festivities Thurs. night.

1. Arizona Kyler Murray, QB Oklahoma
Quarterback is significantly more important than any other position and Murray has the potential to be a top ten QB in the league.  Some people might like Josh Rosen more than I do, but I think Murray has better long-term potential than Rosen and Rosen isn't exactly entrenched in the franchise to where uprooting him is going to cause strife.  The cardinals should pick Murray, but I'm going to predict a blockbuster deal with the Oak Vegas Grudens.

2. San Francisco Nick Bosa, DE Ohio State
The 49ers have invested heavily at D-line.  Matt Millen thinks they should keep up the trend.  I don't think they have another option here.  I can't see anyone trading up.  They go ahead and take the best player available. 

3. N.Y. Jets                Ed Oliver, DT Houston
The Jets are supposedly sticking with a 3-4 after hiring Gregg Williams.  I suspect they'll mix it up and adding Ed Oliver to a line that already has Leonard Williams will give them a lot of flexibility to show a lot of different looks. 

4. Oakland                Jawaan Taylor, OT Florida
The Cardinals move down in an effort to compile more talent.  Quinnen Williams is the safest pick, but D-line depth in this class allows them to go elsewhere.  Fixing the offensive line will be the top priority. 

5. Tampa Bay        Josh Allen, OLB Kentucky
The Buccaneers didn't expect Williams to fall, but DC Todd Bowles has already spent months dreaming up what he is going to do with Allen.   They stick to the plan. 

6. N.Y. Giants       Quinnen Williams, DT Alabama
Will they or won't they? There's been extensive debate as to if and when the Giants will take a QB.  If Williams falls in their lap, the answer is no.

7. Jacksonville       Montez Sweat, DE Mississippi State
I've had Hockenson penciled in here for a while, but the jaguars are d-linemen addicts.  Just the thought of a massive wingspan and a 1.5 s 10 yard split makes them...sweat.  (sorry, pun mostly intended)

8. Detroit               Devin White, LB LSU
The Lions try to stabilize their defense picking a young athletic player to stick right in the middle of it.  Oh Detroit..This should go a little better than a couple years ago when the tried it with Jarrad Davis, but I don't think they'll quite get what they're hoping for.   

9. Buffalo               Jonah Williams, OT Alabama
The Bills have drastic O-line needs.  They could slide in Williams as an upgrade at just about any spot. 

10. Denver               Garrett Bradbury, C North Carolina State

 If they want Joe Flacco to have a prayer they'll have to protect him.  They tried to address OT in free agency.  Now they sure up center.

11. Cincinnati      T.J. Hockenson, TE Iowa
The Bengals shock the world and pass on QB!  What an out of touch franchise!  How could they possibly do that???..   I can hear all of those narratives already. 

You'll see people.  Just wait. I'm telling you, this guy will plug right into their current personnel like the one missing part in a finely tuned engine .  Once he gets his feet wet, this offense will hum... as long as the o-line doesn't crumble.  Ok, maybe they'll have to go OT or G in round 2.

12. Green Bay      Devin Bush, LB Michigan
The packers stocked up on OLB's in free agency.  Now they have a shark to patrol the middle of their defense. 

13. Miami              Cody Ford, OT Oklahoma
The dolphins need… well, everything.  They have a LT, a CB, and a FS, but every other starting slot is up for grabs.  Let's start with the O-Line.  Now they have a RT too. 

14. Atlanta             Christian Wilkins, DT Clemson
The Falcons add some beef up front. 

15. Washington     Andre Dillard, OT Washington State
There's only one OT left, and there's plenty of OT hungry teams below waiting to pounce.  Houston moves up for O-line help. 

16. Carolina             Brian Burns, DE Florida State
The Panthers would have loved an OT, but the Texans snatched Dillard right out from under them.  Fortunately, they are thin at DE too.  Now they have a 6'5" screamer who bends like gumby and has a lightning quick first step. 

17. N.Y. Giants      Clelin Ferrell, DE Clemson
The Giants need help in a lot of areas, but DE is particularly bare.  I think they wait on QB. Dave Gettleman will get criticized for not taking a quarterback even though he would also get criticized for taking any of the quarterbacks available in this class. 

18. Minnesota      Dalton Risner, OT Kansas State
The Vikings have invested cap resources almost everywhere.  Now they need some cheap offensive linemen. 

19. Tennessee       Rashan Gary, DE Michigan
The Titans brought in Cameron Wake at DE, but right now he has no one to groom.  Now he has a pupil. 

20. Pittsburgh      Noah Fant, TE Iowa
Fant slid a little more than I anticipated.  The Steelers have a lot of targets to replace. 

21. Seattle             Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, S Florida
He won't make them forget about Earl Thomas by any means, but when he breaks on the ball their jaws will drop.    

22. Baltimore     Irv Smith Jr., TE Alabama
NE moves up to get their TE replacement.

23. Houston             Dwayne Haskins, QB Ohio State
Washington moves down and still gets their man. As long as he doesn't go to Cincy, I'm good.    

24. Oakland             Chris Lindstrom, G Boston College
This turns into Arizona's pick with Oakland's trade up to number 1.  Keep building that O-line. 

25. Philadelphia      A.J. Brown, WR Mississippi
The Eagles bolster their offensive weapons with a punishing slot receiver. 

26. Indianapolis       Byron Murphy, CB Washington
I don't know if this is their biggest need, but it's somewhere on the list.  Murphy will be solid but Colts fans won't know what to do with a rookie that doesn't make all-pro. C'mon! Get it together Ballard!

27. Oakland              Chase Winovich, DE Michigan
Mayock and Gruden are definitely sitting in a room somewhere cackling with joy over Winovich tape right now. 

28. L.A. Chargers     Dexter Lawrence, DT Clemson
Need and value seem to match here. 

29. Seattle              Marquise Brown, WR Oklahoma
I think Doug Baldwin just got hurt some more while I was typing this.  Seattle needs a backup plan. 
Maybe picking a guy who already has a serious foot injury isn't the best plan, but I still like the fit.

30. Green Bay     D.K. Metcalf, WR Mississippi
Trades, trades, and more trades.  I'm not sure who makes this pick, but Metcalf's slide ends here.

31. L.A. Rams    Daniel Jones, QB Duke
The Giants trade back in to take their QB.  This would be annoying because all of the whining about Dave Gettleman would just go up 17 more octaves.  Personally, I like the move.  Then again, I'm just hanging out on Daniel Jones island sipping kool-aid with Dave.     

32. New England     Darnell Savage, S Maryland
Ughh.. I hope NE doesn't get this guy.  Luckily in this case they've traded out of here.   Baltimore, you can't have him either.  You're trading out of the first round all together. 

Bengals Big Board - 2019

1. Kyler Murray, QB Oklahoma
Murray has a realistic chance to develop into an upgrade at QB.  That's a chance you have to take.

2. Nick Bosa, DE Ohio State
Potential all-pro defender to build the future defense around.

3. Quinnen Williams, DT Oklahoma
Ditto on the all-pro comment.  And they could use an upgrade at the second DT starting slot where they've had a lot of injuries and mediocre play.

4. Ed Oliver, DT Houston
Again, potential all-pro defender.  Sign me up.  I paused on this one because I'm not sure how well Oliver fits next to Geno Atkins.  In the end Oliver is too talented to pass up.  Worst case you have a strong rotation and a shoe-in cornerstone of the defense for Atkins to pass the baton to in a couple of years.

5. Jawaan Taylor, OT Florida
RT might be Cincy's greatest position of need, and Taylor played RT in college.  He's talented enough to move to LT if Cordy Glenn's injury woes continue.

6. T.J. Hockenson, TE Iowa
Analysts across the league are insisting the Bengals are going nowhere with the current roster and Zach Taylor should tear down the roster and start a new era with a new QB.  After Murray's gone, there's just not enough QB talent worth chasing here. I think Taylor is going to take a different approach.  Dalton needs support, but he's better than people are giving him credit.  I think Taylor sees somebody like Hockenson sitting there and he's licking his chops.  A  blocking TE with solid receiving skills and the athleticism to threaten all levels of the defense would really unlock this offense.  Roll out two tight end sets, wind up Joe Mixon, and let him go.  Blend in play action with the tight end(s) sneaking out into routs and A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd doing their thing.  I think they could surprise some people with how efficient they could be.  Yes, they signed Tyler Eifert and C.J. Uzomah as free agents, but I don't think that stops them from making this pick.  I think they need two or three guys that can start and Eifert is a bonus if they get another year or two out of him.  It's iffy if Hockenson will fall to 11, but I have my fingers crossed.

7. Noah Fant, TE Iowa
I have Fant higher than a lot of people.  Some people think he lacks consistency catching the ball and needs too much development to snag high in the first round.   I saw him make some pretty impressive catches.  He has room to grow obviously, but I think some of his issues in college were more about playing  in an offense that had ADD and a bad quarterback.  In a more focused role with a quarterback that can deliver the ball accurately and on time Fant is going to rack up catches and bring people to their knees with his athleticism.  People also assume he's a receiver only.  He's not a great blocker, but he's not a disaster either.

8. Cody Ford, OT Oklahoma
This is higher than most people have Ford, but he was a really strong RT in college that some think could move inside to guard if need be.  The Bengals can't write off any more seasons because they weren't prepared for attrition on the O-line, and Bobby Hart is a better plan B than a plan A.

9. Jonah Williams, OT Alabama
I know, I know..I'm waffling on my OT rankings from the other day.  I am bumping Williams ahead of Dillard.  He's a little more proven and he has more versatility.  If the TE's and the all-pro's are off the board, I think OT is their best bet.

10. D.K. Metcalf, WR Mississippi
Maybe the ghosts of the John Ross pick will keep them from taking another risky WR in the top 11, but the upside is too great for me.  He has the athleticism to contribute right way and he can be groomed for a larger role in the post-A.J. Green era a few years down the line.

11. Clelin Ferrell, DE Clemson
DE isn't the greatest area of need, but I just think the LB's are a little overrated at this point.  Pass rush talent is always a plus.

Picking 11th, they're guaranteed one of the players above will be available, but let's run through the options in case they trade down.

12. Montez Sweat, DE Mississippi St.
Best player available.  I still consider DE a premium position.

13. Brian Burns, DE Florida State
Burns will need some time, but he could be a star to build around.

14.  Andre Dillard, OT Washington State
Still some O-line talent left on the board.

15. Irv Smith, TE Alabama
Another TE with decent receiving skills that can block.

16. Rashan Gary, DE Michigan
Amazing athlete with tantalizing upside.

17. Devin White, LB LSU
I'd prefer to try to find a linebacker later, but at some point need  and value are going to match up
18. Devin Bush, LB Michigan

19. Hakeem Butler, WR Iowa State
Similar to the Brian Burns pick, except with a WR

20. Christian Wilkins, DT Clemson
Cross off the DT need.  Run defense might be a work in progress but, Wilkins playing next to Atkins on passing downs could turn into a scary combo.

21. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, S Florida
Gardner-Johnson's closing speed along with Jessie Bates and William Jackson would be handy trying to match up with modern offenses.

22. Dalton Risner, OT Kansas State
I still have my questions about Risner, but I'd be okay with him in this range.

23. A.J. Brown, WR Mississippi
A versatile receiver might come in handy with Boyd and Green going into contract years.

24. Dexter Lawrence, DT Clemson
More stout run stuffer with some ability to penetrate.  Might actually be a better fit fore their need than Wilkins.

25. Chris Lindstrom, G Boston College
Need to stay strong in the trenches.

26. Darnell Savage, S Maryland
Decent cover skills, outstanding in run support.

27. Marquise Brown, WR Oklahoma
Is this who they thought they were getting when they drafted John Ross?

28. Byron Murphy, CB Washington
With Jackson and Dennard in contract years, CB might be more of a need than you think.

29. Chase Winnovich, DE Michigan
Add some spark to the D-line.
30. Nasir Adderley, S Delaware
Upgrade the Shawn Williams slot.  Slight downgrade against the run to boost the pass defense.

31. Daniel Jones, QB Duke
Maybe it'd be best to wait to see if he falls to round 2, but a backup plan at QB might be in the cards.

32. Jeffrey Simmons, DT Mississippi St.
If you trade down this far, you're kind of acknowledging a mini rebuild.  Why not gamble on high-end talent that has to red shirt?

Note: I've left multiple center prospects off the board along with Josh Allen. I can't see them taking a center again and I'm not sure how well the guys available would fit at guard.  I just don't think Allen fits in their scheme.  

2019 NFL Draft - Defense Takes

DE
1. Nick Bosa, Ohio State
Bosa was anointed the top prospect in this class a long time ago. Watching his games I'll admit I was expecting him to pop a little more, but after watching pretty much all of the top prospects I still have Bosa as the best non-quarterback prospect.  I'd say his ceiling isn't quite as high as players like Murray, Ed Oliver,  Quinnen Williams, and even some of the WR prospects, but you're still talking about a guy with the potential to be an all-pro pass rusher, and  non-medically-influenced floor is higher than anybody else.

2. Clelin Ferrell, Clemson
Ferrell falls in the category of being consistently good for too long in college.  He's put mulitple years of high-end DE play on tape and now people are having trouble imagining him evolving into any more than a really good defensive end.  I think he fires off the snap better than anyone in this class.  As much as I like him, I can see the dilemma.  Would you be happy if your team drafted a Carlos Dunlap-level player in the first round?  I'd say yes.  How high would you be willing to take him if you knew that was probably his ceiling?  I think his actual ceiling might be higher than that, but  I've played around with my mock draft and I'm having trouble pulling the trigger in the 10 to 12 range.  I wouldn't fault anyone taking him there, but it would be a little bit of an "okay we'll see" shoulder shrug.

3. Montez Sweat, Mississippi
That brings us to our higher ceiling but lower floor prospects.  Sweat had great college production and backed it up with impressive combine numbers.  The pass-rush upside is a little higher, but the difference isn't significant enough to make up for the drop off in run defense and the slightly higher bust potential.

4. Brian Burns, Florida State
People are all over the map on Burns including an analyst I trust who ranks him as the best edge guy ahead of Bosa.  Burns is lightning quick, but there are concerns about his lean frame.  I'm not sure you can plug him in for three downs unless he beefs up a little.  A lot of people project him as having Aldon Smith potential (minus the off-field problems).  I thought he beat a lot of people with his first couple of steps but often lacked the power to capitalize.  He might develop  into a more well-rounded player, but I'd rather bet on the three guys I have ahead of him.  Still, he'll make a fine top 20 pick.

5.  Rashan Gary, Michigan
Gary has the athletic abiltiy at 280 lbs. to be a star, but he hasn't really proved it on the field yet.  I saw flashes of it watching him play, but not enough to trust him in the top 15.  Some people are projecting him as a DT, but I'd rather see him stick to DE.

6. Chase Winovich, Michigan
Less talent than Gary with better production.  Winovich has a high motor and a knack for finding his way to the ball.  He'll make some team picking in the last 10 picks of the first round very happy.

Edge
1. Josh Allen, Kentucky
I posted this article and then realized a day later that I forgot to include Josh Allen among the defensive prospects.  He definitely needs in the discussion, but  I'm not as high on him as everyone else.  He has great college production, but I think he'll be a good but not great as a pro.  I see him as purely a 3-4 player. .  I don't think he'll hold up if you try to play him at DE, and although he looked good on tape running downfield with TE's he doesn't quite have good enough movement skills to be successful as a 4-3 LB. Hopefully somebody snaps him up as a 3-4 OLB. 

DT
1. Quinnen Williams, Alabama
Williams has the size, strength, and quickness to give offenses fits against the run and pass.  He's not quite as sure of a thing as someone like Ndamukong Suh coming out, but he's well-worth a top 5 pick.

2. Ed Oliver, Houston
Undersized DT with elite athletic skill that shines through clearly watching his college games.  His size and skill set draws everyone's mind to Aaron Donald, but no one is willing to mention there names in the same sentence without apologizing profusely with the caveat that Oliver is not Aaron Donald.  I don't disagree, but in a way the knee jerk to avoid comparing Oliver to Donald has led to Oliver being undervalued.  Until recently people have projected Oliver towards the middle of the first round.  In a class that is relatively light on sure-fire top 5 talent, Oliver is clearly a top five pick for me.

3. Christian Wilkins, Clemson
I've seen Wilkins mocked anywhere from 9 to 32.  I think the real answer is right about in the middle of that range.  Wilkins is big and athletic enough to play 3 downs.  He penetrates well to make plays against the run and pass, but if O-linemen are able to engage him he sometimes struggles to hold his ground. I worry this will turn into a bigger problem against NFL talent.  The Clemson DT'S remind me of a couple of years ago when Alabama had the two big DT's, Jarran Reed and A'shawn Robinson.  Both were clearly good, but it was hard to tell how good.  The NFL ended up taking them in the second round.   Both have had some success in the league.  Maybe they should have gone a little higher, but nothing drastic.  Wilkins might be the best player of the four.  I'd take him in the 18 to 25 range.

4. Jeffery Simmons, Mississippi
Simmons is a top 12 talent that tore his ACL in pre-draft training.  Teams already hesitant on Simmons due to an off-field incident before college might wait to snap him up until the second round, but watch out for New England at 32.  If he were healthy with no red flags, I'd slot him third in this DT class behind Oliver.  Like Williams, he's a two-way interior player who can hold up against the run and wreak havoc against the pass.

5. Dexter Lawrence, Clemson
Lawrence has more size to occupy blockers inside, but less pass rush potential than anyone ahead of him on this list.  He's not merely a run stuffer by any means, but there's not enough pass rush upside to elevate him much higher than the mid 20's for me.

LB
1. Devin White, LSU
White has drawn plenty of hype for his college play and his speedy combine numbers have only fueled the fire.  There haven't been too many mocks slotting him outside the top 12.  That's too rich for my blood.  He's good enough to start right away, but I don't think his talent level is high enough to transcend positional value.  Once he sees the play, he attacks and makes a lot of plays in the backfield against the run and the pass.  I just saw too many instances where he read the play too slow or misdiagnosed and got washed out of the play.  He needs protection up front.  If o-linemen get to the second level he struggles to hold his ground or shed and get to the ball.  That's true for many linebackers, but not the ones I'm comfortable taking in the top 10 (even in a draft class not brimming with top 10 talent).  I wouldn't take him ahead of the top pass rushers, receivers, or OT's.  Wait until the 15 to 20 range. 

2. Devin Bush, Michigan
Bush is slightly smaller and slightly less athletic than White.  I'd actually say his instincts are a little better than White's.  White makes a few more splash plays.  Bush roams the second level a little better.  I'd still give the slight nod to White, but Bush five or ten picks later is probably better value.

CB
1. Byron Murphy, Washington
Undersized players who test on the slow side don't usually get first round consideration.  That just speaks to how solid Murphy plays in coverage.  He'll fall a little further than a normal CB1, but somewhere in the second half of the first round is likely.

2. Greedy Williams, LSU
Williams is a better athlete than Murphy and looked impressive covering some of this years's top receiving talent.   Ego, attitude, and arrogance also jumped off the screen in his game tape.  That's not necessarily a negative for many positions including corner, but in this case it seemed to lead to concentration lapses and inconsistent play.  Williams might still go in the first round, but some teams may just decide he's not worth the trouble.

S
1. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Florida
Twitchy player with great instincts and awesome closing speed.  Gardner-Johnson is a free safety with the versatility to hold up in man coverage.

2. Darnell Savage, Maryland
Athletic safety that reads plays quickly and gets to the ball in a hurry.  Sometimes he's a little too aggressive and gets out of position, but once if he's surrounded by better talent, hopefully he won't feel like he has to do it all and he'll reign in his decision-making a little.  If he played for Alabama, I think he'd be a top 15 pick.

3. Nasir Adderley, Delaware
Well-rounded playmaker.  Looks athletic against small school competition. We'll see if he holds up in the pros.   

4. Johnathan Abram, Mississippi St. 
More of a thumper with some coverage skills.

2019 NFL Draft - QB Takes and More on Offense

QB
1. Kyler Murray, Oklahoma
Murray is the clear #1 player in this class for me.  He's no sure thing, but quarterback is two to five times more important than any other position and Murray has the potential to be a top 10 quarterback in the league.  The running ability isn't quite as good as Lamar Jackson, but he's a much better passer.  He has a good arm.  Anticipation and ability to read the field is the most important QB trait for me.  It's hard to say how good he is in those areas, but he showed enough to at least check those boxes as not a concern.  He runs a lot. He'll have to reign in those instincts a little.  His running ability can and should serve as a potent weapon in whatever offense he plays in and he's good at avoiding hits, but when the best player on your team is 5'10" and scrawny I don't think you want him getting 10+ carries per game.  There were a couple plays in college games where D-linemen were only able to get one hand on him with their arm fully extended and they pulled him down like a rag doll.  That gives me pause, but I think he has a chance to be successful with the way quarterbacks are protected these days.  He showed plenty of ability to scramble and throw on the run.  People bristle when you compare prospects to elite players, but you see shades of Russel Wilson  here and there.  It feels like a lazy comparison, but it's there.   

2. Daniel Jones, Duke
I'm on a little bit of an island on this one.  A lot of analysts I trust have bashed Jones pretty hard, but I think there might be something here. Everyone agrees he is big and athletic. When you start discussing his accuracy and downfield throwing ability, my opinion diverges from the norm.  I see a guy with a strong ability to process the play as it unfolds and make quick accurate decisions with the football. I think he is really strong throwing short to intermediate routes. He doesn't have a rocket arm, but he can push the ball downfield. He has decent deep accuarcy.  Not great.  Not elite. But solid.  Above average.  Rewatching some of his games I see more of his warts,  but my initial gut reaction was that he can play.    Think Andy Dalton 2.0 with better physical traits  or very rich man's Ryan Tannehill with better processing skills. I'm not sure about plugging him in day one, but I see starter potential. Others see a guy overhyped for his protypical size with a mediocre arm and bad accuracy.  We'll see who's right!  I'm excited to see how it plays out. 

3. Drew Lock, Missouri
Lock is a late riser for me.  The first couple games I watched I almost threw up.  I thought he was almost undraftable.  Then I got to some of the games later in the year and he won me over a little bit.   He played particularly well against Florida.  He comes across as a golden boy type of quarterback:  Tall, athletic, strong arm.. I have no idea what color his hair is, but I picture it as blonde.  Still, when the crap hits the fan I'm not sure he's going to do too well off-script.    Some games he looks like he doesn't know how to throw the ball.  Other times he looks Mitch Trubisky-ish.. not that that's super high praise, but you're at least talking about a prosepct taken in the top five.  I'd lean towards the mid to late second round for Lock. Let someone else take the risk if they want to take him higher.

4. Dwayne Haskins, Ohio State
Haskins has drawn a lot of high praise, so maybe my expectations were a little too high going in.  I was startled by his lack of deep accuracy.  He made a nice deep throw in the TCU game early in the year, but beyond that he seemed to have area code accuracy on anything more than 15 yards down the field.  The Purdue game was frightening. He looked like he couldn't handle pressure and he couldn't  process fast enough.  His lack of mobility is a concern.  I don't know if I'd count on him developing into a starter.  I wouldn't take him before the third round. 

5. Will Grier, West Virginia
Feisty player.  Never shows fear.  He has some starter potential, but he has kind of a low ceiling.  I think he has some physical limitations.  He's accurate deep down the field, but he looks like a kid trying to throw a football that's too big for him.   His vibe reminds me of Jake Delhomme or maybe Case Keenum.   

RB
1. Josh Jacobs, Alabama
He didn't run the fastest but he shows burst on his tape.  He catches the ball well, and has an unbelievable ability to deliver punishment to defenders.  He weighed in at 220 and he plays like it, but he looks much leaner on the field.  Much like Hockenson at TE, Jacobs gets a big bump due to his blocking ability compared to other prospects at his position.  Everyone raves about his character.  He might sneak into the first round, but I'd slot him more in the 35 to 40 range.

WR
1. D.K. Metcalf, Mississippi
Beyond the top 2 or 3 prospects, this draft class might be best defined by the polarization surrounding just about everyone else, and Metcalf is one of the headliners. If you're worried about Metcalf's injuries that's one thing, but I don't think his lack of college production is a problem.  He has shown he needs to sharpen his rout running skills, but that's not necessarily an indictment on Metcalf.  Think of it from Ole Miss's perspective.  You have a hundred 18 to 22 year-olds and you need to win football games in the SEC.  Are you going to undertake the process of meticulously sculpting this piece of granite into a finely tuned wide receiving ninja?  Or are you going to send the incredible hulk screaming up the field every play to occupy the other team's best athletes while you spray the ball relentlessly underneath to A.J. Brown?  It's not a surprise Mississippi opted for option 2.  Metcalf showed enough ability on comeback routs and outs to prove he's capable of becoming more refined, but worst case scenario he can reprise his Mississippi role using his eye-popping size and speed off the line of scrimmage (1.45 S 10-yard-split on his 40 time- holy crap!).  Best case?  Well, with a little luck you might end up with Terrell Owens.  He's worth the risk in my book.   

2. Hakeem Butler, Iowa State
Big receivers have taken a hit over the past few years, but they're back with a vengeance in this class.   Butler measures in at 6'5" 227 lbs. and ran a 4.48 at the combine. Butler uses his size well and makes plays down field, but my favorite trait is just how smooth he looks for such a big player. 

3. Marquise Brown, Oklahoma
Brown's foot injury and his size are holding his draft stock down, but playmakers have high end value in this league.  I still like him as a Rd 1 pick. 

4.  A.J. Brown, Mississippi
He's showed his value as a slot receiver.  Will teams take a chance on him as an outside WR?  After about pick 20, I say yes.  His floor as a slot guy is fairly high.  Best case, you get a weapon all over the field.

5.  Miles Boykin, Notre Dame
I liked Boykin when I watched him.  He didn't look overly explosive in the games I watched, but his testing showed rare atlheticism (43.5" vertical, 140" broad jump) and the on-field production was definitely there.  I jumped him up ahead of the next few guys purely based on ceiling.

6. Deebo Samuel, South Carolina
Tough smaller target that makes plays all over the field.  I'm not totally confident his playmaking skills will translate against the elevated levels of defensive talent in the NFL, but somebody in the second round is going to take a chance to find out. 

7. Kelvin Harmon, North Carolina State
Solid receiver who wins with rout running.  I'm not sure he can be a WR1, but he'll likely be a fine WR2 for whoever takes him in the 50 to 60 range. 

8. Paris Campbell, Ohio State
Campbell seems a little underrated in this class. He's got game breaking speed and he stood out in an offense full of weapons.  I like his potential to develop into a reliable target.

9. N'keal Harry, Arizona State
He went to Arizona State!  He's a sundevil mannn!.. Sorry, couldn't resist.   Harry is a physical receiver that a lot of people have more highly rated than I do.  Maybe I just need to watch more, but he just didn't look very fluid to me.  His routs were clunky and he had a lot of wasted steps.  A lot of people love him, but when i was going through my list everyone above him has at least one well-defined trait that they can hang there hats on that is strong enough to outweigh any of their shortcomings to make me feel comfortable that they can be a quality starting WR in the league.  Campbells speed. Harmon's precision.  Samuel's grit.  Boykin's athleticism. Brown's cache in the middle of the field.  M. Brown's deep play making ability.  Butler's fluidity.  Metcalf's combination of size and burst down the field. 

TE
1. T.J. Hockenson, Iowa
The value of a blocking tight end with enough athleticism and receiving ability to get downfield and threaten the defense is underrated.   Hockenson is getting hype in this draft class, but it always has to be spelled out as to why you should rank a guy like this really high.  It adds so much versatility to any offensive scheme and it just feels like a lot of people don't quite grasp the full extent of it.  He's no Rob Gronkowski, but he's still well worth a top 10 pick. 

2. Noah Fant, Iowa
It's still crazy to me that one school has two elite prospects at the same position.  I would take both of these guys in the top 10.  Fant gets knocked for having less production than Hockenson, but I get the impression watching his games that it wasn't really his fault.  Iowa's offense just looked really scatter-brained to me.  They kept throwing to all of these different receivers and then they'd hit Fant on a play or two and it was like "whoa look at that guy."  He can't block like Hockenson, but I wouldn't say he's a useless blocker.  I'm not sure that it matters though.  You want this guy running routs as much as possible.  He has real Jimmy Graham potential (the good one that played with Drew Brees.. Not the one that tore up his knee and never seemed to recover).

3. Irv Smith, Alabama
I'm in on Smith too.  He's another two-way tight end. He basically seemed like a less athletic version of Hockenson.  I'd be surprised if he doesn't sneak into the back half of round 1.

OT
1. Jawann Taylor, Florida
Played RT at Florida. He looked physical in the run game and agile in the pass game. He's not a sure-fire hall of famer or anything, but he should start day 1.  An OT starved league will gobble him up in the top 8 picks .  Don't rule out top 5. 

2. Andre Dillard, Washington State
Dillard's prospects require quite a bit of projection due to the lack of a pro-style rushing attack in the scheme he played in at Washington State, but he showed off enough size and speed in his pass blocking that I think he'll develop quickly into a starting LT. 

3. Cody Ford, Oklahoma
Some project Ford as a G, but he looked pretty good at RT to me.  He's solid.  I don't think I'd project a high ceiling for him, but I think teams will find it hard to pass up on him based on need.

4. Jonah Williams, Alabama
Some like Williams in the top 10.  He's a hair behind these other guys to me, but he's still a top 20 prospect.  He can pass block and run block, but he doesn't seem to hold up to power rushers quite as well and wasn't as effective moving defenders in the running game as Ford and Taylor. 

5. Dalton Risner, Kansas State
Risner looks physically imposing on the field, and you can see a nasty mean streak in his game.  That considered, I wonder if he has a functional strength problem.  I was surprised how many times I saw him load up to lay into a defender and get stymied.


G/C
1. Garrett Bradbury, North Carolina State
Bradbury  is the one guy I've watched a little bit.   He's expected to be a plug and play starting center in the league. Look for him to come off the board in the 12 to 20 range. 

I haven't really watched anyone else closely in this group, but here are some of the names that have been bubbling to the surface late in the process as late day 1 early day 2 prospects. 
Elgton Jenkins, G Mississippi St.
Erik McCoy, C Texas A&M
Chris Lindstrom, G Boston College

2018 Draft!

1 Cleveland Sam Darnold, QB USC
He's not ready, but he has the highest upside in terms of physical traits combined with ability to perform at a high level under pressure.  Hopefully being the first pick doesn't rob him of the chance to develop.

2 N.Y. Giants Bradley Chubb, DE N.C. State
Everyone loves Chubb. To me he's a great college player not athletic enough to be great in the pros, but as the top pass rusher he's firmly entrenched in the top 6. 

3 N.Y. Jets Baker Mayfield, QB Oklahoma
Lowest ceiling of the quarterbacks, but maybe also the highest floor. 

4 Cleveland Lamar Jackson, QB Louisville
Not many are predicting Jackson to go this high, but I think teams are playing possum.  Cleveland moves out of here and secures first round capital for next year.

5 Denver Josh Rosen, QB UCLA
Another QB.. But not to Denver.  I'm picturing Rosen as a fit with Adam Gase in Miami.  The dolphins agree and they go get 'em

6 Indianapolis Quenton Nelson, G Notre Dame
Chris Ballard has to do what previous GM's failed to do.  Protect their hall of fame potential quarterbacks. Nelson has drawn cartoonish praise from analysts throughout the draft process.

7 Tampa Bay Saquon Barkley, RB Penn State
This reminds me of the Adrian Peterson draft.  Most mocks have Barkley higher.  The positional value just isn't there and he slips a little. 

8 Chicago Tremaine Edmunds, LB Va. Tech
Rare combination of size and speed provides versatility that is  key for modern defensive schemes.

9 San Francisco Denzel Ward, CB Ohio St.
Ward is a little undersized, but he's tough enough to anchor the secondary.  Taking pressure of being a top cover man on the team will enhance what they get out of Richard Sherman coming back from injury.

10 Oakland Roquan Smith, LB Georgia
Greasy fast speed, razor sharp instincts.  Tough to pass up. 

11 Miami Mike McGlinchey, OT Notre Dame
Denver moves back and continues to build their offensive line.

12 Buffalo Harold Landry, DE Boston College
Not sure who makes this pick, but Landry has made a late surge up the draft board and someone will snap up the second best edge rusher in the class in this range.

13 Washington Minkah Fitzpatrick, S Alabama
Mocked in the top 10 throughout the process, Fitzpatrick brings Safety and CB skill to a secondary that needs it. 

14 Green Bay Derwin James, S Florida State
Ultra athlete oozing confidence and leadership ability.

15 Arizona Josh Allen, QB Wyoming
Allen is getting buzz in the top 5.  Big draft outlets rate him highly.  Everyone else is down on him.  The truth is in the middle.  He has more ability than draft Twitter thinks, but he does slide a little.

16 Baltimore Taven Bryan, DT Florida
The ravens will polish up this penetrating DT and have a potent weapon in the middle of their defense.

17 L.A. Chargers Leighton Vander Esch, LB Boise State
The chargers need LB help to go with their potent d-line.

18 Seattle Mike Hughes, CB UCF
Time to rebuild that secondary.

19 Dallas Vita Vea, DT Washington
Titans miss out on Suh and decide to trade up as a backup plan to beef up their d-line here.

20 Detroit Maurice Hurst, DT Michigan
If  teams are comfortable with the heart ailment, Hurst's talent places him in this range.

21 Cincinnati Connor Williams, OT Texas
A lot of people are projecting a center here.  It would fill a big need, but word is they like all three of the top three guys.  Do we think all three will be gone between 21 and 46?  Use some of those treasured compensatory picks to move up a little at the start of day 2 if you need to, but Williams gives you a backup plan at tackle if Glenn or Fisher don't work out and potentially an upgrade at right guard.  Plus, they might still get the center in round 2. 
 
22 Buffalo James Daniels, C Iowa Buffalo has lost their center, guard, and tackle of the left side of their line to trade and retirement.  If they don't use this pick to move up inside the top 10, they go interior O-line here.

23 New England Marcus Davenport, DE UTSA This feels like the Chandler Jones pick from a few years ago.  Unpolished pass rusher goes to New England in the mid 20's. 

24 Carolina Kolton Miller, OT UCLA Panthers need a backup plan at OT

25 Tennessee DJ Moore, WR Maryland
Dallas trades back and looks for WR help. 

26 Atlanta Da'Ron Payne, DT Alabama
The d-line talent is flying off the board.

27 New Orleans Dallas Goedert, South Dakota State
The Saints were aching so bad for a receiving tight end they almost resigned Jimmy Graham.

28 Pittsburgh Rashaan Evans, LB Alabama
Pittsburgh needs to back fill LB talent.

29 Jacksonville Justin Reid, S Stanford
Make a strength stronger.  The jaguars defense keeps getting better.

30 Minnesota Josh Jackson,  CB Iowa
The front 7 looks scary.  Another solid corner might be the last piece to an all-time defense.

31 New England Derrius Guice, RB LSU
New England won't make this pick,  but someone will jump back into round 1 to nab Guice.  I think he's the second best RB prosepct in the last 2 years.

32 Philadelphia Jaire Alexander, CB Louisville Alexander might not be that big of a dropoff from Denzel Ward if he recovers to 2016 form. 

2017 NFL Preview: Same As It Ever Wasn't?

The 2017 season has arrived.  It is a time honored tradition that I post that I halfheartedly try to make a futile projection for the final results of the entire season.  Here's how it turned out: 

AFC North:

Pit    12-4

Cin    9-7

Bal    7-9

Cle    5-11

Who will be the kings of the north!?  Part of me wants to predict Pittsburgh to have a rough season, but that’s probably just out of spite and all jinx/reverse-jinx rules require me to predict a sterling 12-4 record.  Biases aside, their defense is a mix of solid veterans and young players coming into their own.  They might be ready to make a leap.  Offensively, they could be the class of the league as everyone’s dream of witnessing all of their firepower on the field at the same time might finally come true.  But for how long? 

The BENG-GALLLLS:  The preseason was a mixed bag for the Orange Asian Tigers.  I think they’ll be streaky on both sides of the ball and they’ll hover right around .500 plus or minus a game.  As expected, the offensive line is going to take its lumps.  They cut Eric Winston which means either he hit a wall skill-level-wise or they have confidence in the young talent.  Regardless, the depth at OT looks a little scary.  They’ve cycled new talent in at linebacker and I think it is going to take some time to gel.  Burfict remains Burfict: a talented player that can’t control himself and is going to get legislated out of the league.  In the end, they lose the tiebreaker to Tennessee and miss out on the playoffs.  Don’t panic though Mr. Brown.  Just give Marvin Lewis one more year to see this through.  I don’t know if he can do it, but I think 2018 will be the peak potential for this core roster construction and Lewis's continuity probably stands a better chance of making a run than a new coaching regime. 

Baltimore has endured one downer headline after another this offseason.  I don’t expect it to totally weigh them down.  It never does, but looking at their offensive talent I just can't figure out how it adds up to a playoff team.  

Cleveland decided to take an alternative approach to their front office two years back and it appears to be working.  As Roethlisberger becomes increasingly disinterested in football and Joe Flacco begins to deal with a bulky back, this division might be primed to be flipped on its head sometime soon.  But not yet. 

AFC South:

Hou    10-6

Ten    9-7

Jac    7-9

Ind    2-14

Much like Pittsburgh’s offense, the tantalizing vision of a Clowney/Watt-studded defensive unit might actually come to fruition this season.  But for how long?  I say the defense propels the team to wins as the offense does just enough to retain the AFC South crown.

AFC East:

NE     13-3

Mia   7-9

Buf    6-10

NYJ    4-12

New England’s reign continues.  Salty Jay Cutler keeps Miami at least playoff relevant only to fall short down the stretch.  Buffalo is rebuilding but not quite as far along in dismantling their team as New York.  Josh McCown spitefully stays healthy long enough to nudge the Jets up the 2018 draft board a few slots. 

AFC West:

KC     11-5

Oak   10-6

Den    8-8

LAC    7-9

KC surprises a little bit here.  Alex Smith does just enough to muffle jeers urging his replacement.  We’ll get a look at Maholmes next year.  Oakland’s defense isn’t quite good enough to earn them a playoff bye, but hopefully they at least get a shot at taking their QB into the postseason this year. Denver’s run defense should bounce back a little, but the offense still won’t quite be good enough.  The Chargers have an interesting roster, but they once again appear snake-bitten. 

NFC North:

GB     12-4

Min    10-6

Det    7-9

Chi    4-12

Remember the narrative at this time last year about Aaron Rodgers maybe not being a good quarterback anymore?  It’s hard to pick anyone other than Green Bay here.  If Minnesota’s defense stays healthy, they should hang around enough to at least force the Packers to play out the season.  Detroit’s defense appears to be light on star talent and most of their better players are banged up heading into the season.  Chicago was scrappy last year, but it didn’t show up in their win total.  Their quarterbacks will struggle enough to prevent seeing much of an improvement this year. 

NFC South:

Atl    9-7

TB    8-8

Car    8-8

No    7-9

    

This is one of the few divisions where you could make a case for just about any finishing order from top to bottom.  Atlanta’s roster probably warrants an 11 or 12-win season, but I docked them a few wins for the Super Bowl hangover effect.  Tampa Bay feels like the trendy "their free agent signings make so much  sense, they are going to take the next step" team that annually never quite pans out.  I think it will be one more year before they turn the corner.  Carolina’s defense should be good and everyone loves the idea of Christian McCaffrey in their offense.  I’m skeptical they’re going to get enough out of Cam Newton this year to break .500.  He’ll rebound next year, but he’ll struggle with consistency as he attempts to finish his recovery from shoulder surgery while playing the first half of the season.  With Jeff Fisher out of the league, Sean Peyton is the new 7-9 bull $%!^ coach.  Is this the last year for the Brees/Peyton era in N.O.?  Is this the sunset of Adrian Peterson’s career?  There might be intrigue in New Orleans even if they don’t have a good year. 

NFC East

N.Y.    9-7

Phi    9-7

Dal    9-7

Was    7-9

 

Another toss up division.  New York has the best defense, Dallas has the best offense, and Philadelphia is somewhere in between.  Kirk Cousins isn’t the real deal, but he’s good enough to sniff 8-8. 

NFC West

Sea    12-4

Ari     9-7

LAR    6-10   

S.F.    4-12

Seattle did just enough to fix their O-line to run away with this division.  Their defense could be the best in the league.  Something feels off with Arizona this year.  They had too much turnover on defense and their offense seems stale.  A resurgent Tyrann Mathieu and one last hurrah for Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald propel them to 9 wins, but they fall short of the playoffs.  The Rams improve on their 2016 record with added talent on offense and Wade Phillips taking over their defense. Kyle Shanahan takes over in San Francisco and manages to double their win total.     

The Playoffs:

Green Bay and Seattle play in week 1 of the season and they appear on a collision course for the NFC title game.  Minnesota ousts N.Y. while Atlanta fends off the upstart Eagles.  The 1 and 2 seeds take care of business in round 3, and the Seahawks defense proves to be too much for the Packers to make a return trip to the Super Bowl (not in real life.  Just in my world of make-believe predictions).

Tennessee makes it to the dance but exits early at the hands of Kansas City.  Oakland gets a rematch in Houston.  With Derek Car at the helm, the Raiders come out on top this time around.  Oakland continues it’s revenge tour, avenging the tuck rule game in New England.  Kansas City upsets Pittsburgh to set up an AFC West showdown in the AFC championship.  Wait a minute, I picked K.C. to go to the Super Bowl last year too.  It turns out I was one year early. 

Might as well run back my entire 2016 take: Seattle bludgeons Kansas City in the Super Bowl 42-27. 

Mark it all down in ink.  That’s all for now.  Enjoy week 1!

Camp Stories: Uh-Oh-Line

The 2017 season is upon us!  Training camps have kicked off throughout the league. Buzz is building.  The media machines are revving up.  And I've begun my annual tradition of opening up my laptop at the end of the day and nervously skimming through the day's casualties to see if there are any Bengals on the list of gut wrenching training camp injuries.  So far Cincy has mostly dodged the carnage, but keep your fingers crossed. Here's my take on what I've seen and heard so far.

As predicted, the offensive line has been one of the most talked about Bengals story lines leading up to the preseason. From the media's perspective, the position group was below average last year and lost its two best players in free agency.  They aren't wrong,  but the second part of the discussion strays into how the Bengals decided to ignore there offensive line needs before spiraling into obligatory shots at Mike Brown being too cheap to resign veteran players.  Okay.  Here's where I have to suit up with my orange and black sword and shield and fend off some shoddy analysis fraught with Bengals stereotypes.

Let's start with the first part.  The Bengals have a plan and they are executing it.  Sure, they would have preferred to sign Andrew Whitworth to one more contract to give Cedric Ogbuehi more time, but let's not pretend signing a 35 year old offensive lineman to a three year contract is a no-brainer.

Transitioning to Ogbuehi and Jake Fisher at OT was always the plan.  Analysts have concluded that the two young OT's are busts.  They didn't jump in and start on day one so they must be terrible.

Bengals.com writer Geoff Hobson spins a different tale:
Ogbuehi was injured for his first year and a half on the team and missed his first two training camps. He is more comfortable on the left side than the right where they tried to play him last year.  He will be fine.  Fisher will be fine.  Everything is going to be okay.

What's the real answer?  Probably somewhere in between.  On the right side, most analysts didn't catch Fisher playing well at RT down the stretch last season.  I think they're in better shape there than anyone outside of Cincinnati realizes.  Even if Fisher stumbles, Eric Winston and Andre Smith are reasonable safety nets.

The left side is a little less settled.  Ogbuehi will have more growing pains than Andy Dalton's blind side would care to experience for at least the first half of this year.  Reading articles, even the perpetually optimistic Hobson sounds a little nervous about Ogbuehi's performance in camp so far.  Reportedly he looked okay early on but as the defense has started to go less vanilla the last few days, the O-line has crumbled headlined by a wide-open freeway to Dalton around the left side of the line.  Either Carl Lawson is going to vault from fourth round draft pick to instant all-pro or Ogbuehi is going to struggle out of the gate.  Unfortunately, I'm leaning towards the latter.  Worse yet, they don't really have a great alternative.  More than likely if they have to pull the plug on Ogbuehi, Fisher will slide over to the left side, and Smith/Winston will hold down the right side, but who knows if that will even work.  For a position group that thrives on continuity, it is unsettling to hear about O-line coach Paul Alexander shuffling players around constantly the first few days of camp because he's trying to find out his best five guys.

Despite all of that, to conclude that Ogbuehi has already peaked as a professional and there is no hope of development is a little short-sighted.  It looks iffy right now, but the jury is still out.  If he still hasn't progressed into a more reliable blocker mid way through next season, go ahead start throwing dirt on him.  For now, let's wait and see.

Then there's right guard where the consensus is once again predictably annoying.

Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu left last year.  Now Whitworth and Zeitler.  They don't want to pay the price to compete.  They're too cheap.

Enough!  It's revisionist history blended with unfair double standards.  Somehow teams like Green Bay and New England manage the salary cap brilliantly, but Cincinnati should just resign every player on their roster like New Orleans who routinely gets picked apart for their irresponsible contracts.

That Bill Belichick, he always gets out a year early on a player rather than a year late.

Mike Brown does it and he's a penny pincher.

The Bengals trust their evaluations and they build through the draft.  That's their plan and they execute it with precise discipline.  When they hit big on a pick they pay up.  They routinely let good but not great players walk not because they are cheap but because it's bad strategy to overpay for role players.  Instead of handcuffing themselves to short term gambles they cycle through younger players on the roster and have more flexibility to plug holes as they open up

Letting Sanu go was the right move.  They targeted Jones and offered him comparable money to Detroit, but Jones wanted a shot at a WR1 role in an offense.  Dalton, A.J. Green, Geno Atkins, the Bengals have stepped up to pay their stars.  They've given some second contracts to mid-tier players (Giovani Bernard, Shawn Williams, Dre Kirkpatrick) but Zeitler elevated himself above that status.  When it came down to adding him to their core talents they decided to save the cap space for players that are harder to replace (Tyler Eifert anyone?).  Make no mistake, they'll miss Zeitler this year.  They'll try to plug the hole with Trey Hopkins or Smith, but more than likely whoever wins the job will be just a placeholder.  This roster isn't set up to contend in 2017.  They made a push in 2015, but Andy Dalton got hurt and the whole thing went up in smoke into the Cincinnati air with an Adam Jones sucker punch.  Sure, they could have pushed all of their chips to the center of the table and loaded up the roster with a bunch of dead money to make a more serious run, but they realized their defense wasn't good enough and when Jones left the offense didn't quite have enough firepower.  Instead of chasing a miracle card on the river they opted to stick with what they're good at: Take a step back, retool through the draft, and push for a wider window of opportunity in the future when they have better cards.  Kenny Rogers would be proud.  

This roster is primed for 2018-2020.   The mistake a lot of people make is analyzing draft picks for impact on the upcoming season.

Oh no! John Ross isn't ready for contact yet!  They're counting on him this year!

Some rookies might flash as role players but even the good ones can't be counted on for significant contributions for 2 to 4 years after they are picked.  Skill position players, defensive lineman, OT's, they take longer to develop.  Guards, LB's, you can find higher level talent in the late day 1 to day 2 range of the draft and they can play at a high level sooner.  Cincy added their CB's, WR's, and defensive lineman the last couple of years and they'll be ready when they need them.

No Wait, that's not what they're really doing they're just being cheap.

Because somehow a team that has finished top ten in total player salary spending three of the last four years is cheap (the one year they weren't in the top ten they were 20th, but only $4 million behind the 4th highest spending team).

Don't listen to the noise.  They'll rebound some this year, but only to the level of a fringe playoff team.  Don't panic.  Give Marvin Lewis one more chance. Watch out for 2018.  It's coming.  I can see it.  The window is opening back up.  They just need to have a little more patience with some injury luck and they'll be poised for a run.  Their time will come.  Just wait.