Grown Up Moves

Looking back at the 2021 Bengals, their offensive line play reminded me of an angsty teenager. Some flashes but altogether unreliable. Sometimes reckless to the point of peril and disaster. Quinton Spain was sometimes considered the dependable one. A brash comeback attempt from Trey Hopkins at center led to disappointment. Right guard was a revolving door of flailing youth prone to falling flat on their face. After Reiff went down RT wasn’t much better. 

Within hours of the beginning of free agency the Bengals added Alex Cappa and Ted Kerras and i got the immediate feeling of moving up to the grown ups table at Thanksgiving. They weren’t names that popped off the screen while reading up on available free agents but the skill sets, the contracts, and the timing all seem to fit into place like lost puzzle pieces.

Solid. Consistent. Tough. 

All were words used to describe the Bengals two newest O-line recruits.  That’s what they need. They’re not trying to build a juggernaut offensive line.  They’re trying to build one that’s reliable. Both contracts reportedly are for multiple years at reasonable rates for players under 30 years old. 

I’ll keep crossing my fingers until the ink dries on the contracts later this week, but this should provide them with the stability that everyone craved, AND allow them the flexibility to keep building. 

They still need a game plan at right tackle, a center or LG (wherever Karras doesn’t play) and a swing guard so that we’re not one sprained ankle from reopening the turnpike that leads from the opposing D-line right into Joe Burrow’s lap (I’m all for bringing Spain back for that role. Having a player of his caliber as plan B is the next step for this roster). 

The assumption is Trey Hopkins will be let go, but could he be the plan at center until April when they might or might not draft somebody with one of their first couple picks? 

Rounding out the offense, I assume they’ll do something at tight end now that Uzomah is off the board. O.j. Howard (update: snapped up by Buffalo), Hayden Hurst, and Tyler Conklin (update: the Jets swiped him too!) are all names that have been floated. Gerald Everett, Maxx Williams, and Robert Tonyan interest me a little less. Austin Hooper might be worth considering if he’s motivated into pursuing a revenge tour after getting cut by the Browns.  There’s also a certain future hall of fame veteran with a little gas left in the tank who would likely make red zone life much easier for both Mixon and Burrow.  After the Brady unretirement news the assumption is Rob Gronkowski is returning to Tampa, but so far there hasn’t been an indication confirming it. Maybe, just maybe, Gronkowski is considering whether he likes smoking cigars better than sipping kale smoothies?.. Probably he’d just rather wait to commit to Tampa until training camp or something and it’s not worth fantasizing. 

On defense, we’re all curious about CB2. There are some options on the table, but most likely they settle for resigning Eli Apple and keep their eyes on the draft for competition. I’d lobby for an Apple upgrade, but if it means sacrificing contract dollars towards RT and a swing IOL, I’m out.  

The other need percolating is DT depth but I think their current roster is versatile enough to let that ride. More pass rush (interior or edge) would be nice, but  again anything that would be a significant upgrade jeopardizes tightening up remaining leaks on offense.  I say let the kids on defense have their shot, keep ears to the ground for some cheap veteran depth, and adjust later if needed. On offense it’s adults only!

The league year officially started today. We’ll see what else Tobin and company have up their sleeves. I like their plan so far and I’ve got a feeling there’s more coming. Stay tuned!

One More Second

The most  unexpected biproduct of having your team make the Super Bowl is how disorienting it is to not turn the page on the season until February. It’s free agency time (already!) baby!  

In my previous post I laid out the rallying cry the Bengals offseason:

One more second.

The offense is brimming with potential. They have versatile weapons at every skill position. They have all the ingredients to be an explosive all time offense.. except one. 

The pieces were all in place last season, but the offense ran hot and cold and sputtered down the stretch. We all know what needs to be done. It has been documented over and over. It’s the one tired narrative i can’t really get mad about because it’s actually true. 

One more second.

What can this offense do with one more second to break down and dissect opposing defenses. The entire offseason focus needs to be centered around one more second. 

Does that mean they should dump all of their money into linemen in day 1 of free agency? It’s more complicated than that. Let’s hash through it.

First Step: Free Agency

1. Terron Armstead, Saints
2. Duane Brown, Seahawks
3. Eric Fisher, Colts
4. Trent Brown, Patriots
5. Morgan Moses, Jets
6. Joe Noteboom, Rams
7. Riley Reiff, Bengals
8. Brandon Shell, Seahawks
9. Bobby Massie, 

Here’s the list. It’s in rough order, but you can definitely quibble after.. well,  all of it.

The unquestioned top name, Armstead, will get big money but he has missed at least six games in four of his last six seasons. Duane Brown, number two on the list, will be 37 years old before the season starts. Eric Fisher is Eric fisher. Maybe you get some stability, but you’re stuck with the “Who is going to play on the right side?” quandary. Can anyone outside of New England motivate Trent Brown? If you can keep him healthy and engaged it would feel nice having a mountain blotting out the sun on the right side but can you count on that?Morgan Moses maybe makes the most sense on this list as a right tackle who has been consistently decent and hasn’t missed a game in the last seven years. Still you’re going to have to commit some decent cash to a 31 year old to get him. I don’t really have high hopes for anyone else.  I’d be okay with Reif if he’s healthy but rumor has it he’s considering retirement. They might be better off spending money on IOL and adding two guys at the bottom or off this list. Take a committee into camp and see if anyone serviceable rises to the surface. It’s not ideal and they tend to hesitate on big money at guard, but looks more attractive when you weigh the risk of ponying up for Armstead, one of the Browns, or relying on the draft/development route.

En Guard

1. Ryan Jensen, Buccaneers
2. Brandon Scherff, Commanders
3. Laken Tomlinson, 49ers
4. James Daniels, Bears
5. Bradley Boseman, Ravens 
6. Andrew Norwell, Jaguars
7. Ben Jones, Titans
8. Connor Williams, Cowboys
9. Austin Corbett, Rams
10. Brian Allen, Rams
11. Germain Ifedi, Bears
12. Alex Cappa, Buccaneers
13. Quinton Spain, Bengals
14. Mike Glowinski, Colts

The outlook at guard/center is a little brighter. Everyone from Adam Jones to Ian Rapaport have been talking up buzz that Ryan Jensen is heading to Cincinnati, but has the market fermented too much for their taste buds? Brandon Scherff would be exciting, but he won’t be cheap and he has missed at least 5 games in 3 of the last 4 seasons. Jensen, Daniels, and Boseman all offer G/C flexibility. Honestly, I would make it my mission to get two of the top five guys on this list, plus bring back Spain, plus add one more from whatever’s left after the free agency frenzy dust settles. If you fix this line the offense hums. Worry all you want about the need to upgrade at 3 technique DT and CB. You’re underestimating the potential of this offense. If they thread the offense/defense needle again, yes, they can win. But if they fix the o-line and stay clear of the always lurking major injury monsters this offense can checkmate the league. Period. I want Jackson Carman to be plan C not plan B. 

But prepare yourself for the reality of one guy on this list plus Spain and Carman as plan A at RG.  

One More Second?…

As in, maybe there’s a trade coming to acquire one more second round pick?  This could take shape in a variety of forms. Maybe they aren’t able to solve all of their blocking woes in free agency and they need more ammo to solve their problems.  I havent looked at guards yet in this draft class but the OT crop looks to have a pretty big plateau with day 2/day 3 talent.  There are a couple guys set to go day 1 based on potential and a couple more guys that teams will reach for ahead of 31. Chances are if they still need a tackle at the end of April they might as well move back into the second round to get him. This feels scary because they used a similar strategy last year with Jackson Carman and year one was a bust, but maybe adding a pick and taking multiple bites at the apple is the right way to go. 

A more exciting option would be to tap into the rumors that Dallas is exploring trade options for RT L’aell Collins to try to soothe some of their salary cap pain. Collins, under 30 years old with a few years left at a reasonable rate of about $10 million per year, checks a lot of the boxes that typically appeal to Cincy’s decision makers. They’ll struggle to check those boxes with this free agent crop that’s heavy on more expensive or less talented 30+ year olds. Would Dallas bite on swapping their 2nd round pick and Collins for pick 31? It feels simultaneously too good to be true and too pricey (for a guy Dallas sounds like they’ll end up cutting), but it’s not outlandish. After three seasons as a high end RT, Collins lost the 2020 season to a hip injury that eventually required surgery. He came back healthy  in 2021 but lost 5 games to a drug suspension and reportedly played less consistent for the rest of the season.  To complicate matters, the Bengals aren’t the only ones thinking of trying to jump start Collins’ career. If a bidding war ensues, it’s unclear how bold the Bengals would be.  If his former O-line coach, Frank Pollack, vouches for him they might be willing to pull the trigger. Plus, they’d be one step closer to fully embracing their identity as LSU East so why not right?

Speaking of trades, other rumors flying have centered around the potential for the Bengals to pursue a trade for Laremy Tunsil. Except, that scenario would not involve getting back a second rounder. They’d be ponying up pick 31 and probably one or two more picks and his current contract would have them on the hook for only two more years at a heftier $18 million price tag. Then you have to figure out who’s playing on the right side and what to do next year in his contract year. 

One more second, just be patient.

Free agency starts today. Be patient. Don’t panic. Their plan is not going to match what you want their plan to be. And about 30 other teams need offensive line too. What they plan to do and who they actually acquire won’t match either. They are going to miss out on some of their targets and it won’t necessarily be their fault.  Harold Landry just got $52 million guaranteed and over $17 million annually.  Mike Williams signed for $40 million guaranteed and $20 million per year. There are going to be some stupid contracts handed out the next few weeks. When Terron Armstead and Brandon Scherf go flying off the board, don’t hyperventilate when it looks like the Bengals are sitting on their hands 60 minutes after free agency opens. They will make moves. Last year we had to complain for weeks when the Bengals missed out on Matt Feiler and Kevin Zeitler and swapped  Carl Lawson for Trey Hendrickson. Sure an extra guard sounds nice in hindsight, but Feiler didn’t exactly solve the chargers’ problems last year. Chidobe Awuzie made more of an impact. 

We don’t have to worship every move the team makes, but there’s a window of thoughtful analysis in the middle somewhere in between homerism and automatic scorn. 

It would be nice to add four starting caliber offensive linemen in the first day of free agency so we can stop worrying about it. It’s just not going to happen. The roster isn’t set until August. There will be trades, roster cuts, and the draft in between now and then. It might take all summer for them to acquire what they really need and as was proven last year even if it looks like they are wrong they still might be right.   They’ve at least earned the benefit of the doubt.

C’mon Duke! Don’t let us down now buddy. Winning feels too good. Just give us one more second. 

So Close But How Far?

It was a dream for Bengals fans watching the football season unfold in December and January where the team finally caught all of the breaks we always thought we had a chance to catch. 

But in the end the rickety offensive line proved to be too much. Yes, we’ll all have the Logan Wilson “hold” along with about 10 other moments that could have swung the game etched in our brains forever (why is Eli Apple one on one with Cooper Kupp? The Rams D-line is selling out in pass rush the whole fourth quarter. Do you think maybe they were vulnerable to a screen?), but it’s hard to deny the reason they lost was the offensive line.

They were basically fighting with one arm tied behind their back for four straight playoff games.  the Super Bowl could have or maybe should have gone different but a lot had to go right to accomplish what they managed with the hand they were dealt.

Last year the defense wasn’t good enough, the offensive playmakers were inconsistent, and the offensive line was bad. The natural move was to fix the offensive line above all else and worry about the rest later. The weapons would grow together and if the offense got right, it would buy them enough time to try to salvage the defense later. That’s what I would have done. Instead they chose to try to thread the needle in one offseason.  Now that we’ve seen the season play out, hats off to them. They were right. Any playoff run would have been considered a success but it darn near worked to the fullest extent possible.  If one of the young guards would have panned out or Riley Reiff had not have gone down, we might all be dreaming of a dynasty instead of thinking of what might have been.

So Where do they go from here? The post Super Bowl analysis has ranged from confidence from the analytics wizards that the regression monsters will come to knock the Bengals back down where they belong to optimism for the  bright future Bengals. There’s some truth to both sides of the coin, but each perspective also seems to be missing the target  to some extent. Let’s sort through it. 

Defensive performance year to year isn’t sticky.

 The Burrow to Chase deep ball success rate has to regress. 

This team can’t possibly replicate their success next year. 

Ok, but are we ignoring the possibility for positive regression? The defense was up and down this year. It’s not Iike they trotted out the ‘85 Bears and we can’t possibly expect that level of execution. Maybe Hendrickson’s sack numbers come down a little, but what if the Hubbard/Ossai/Sample/Kareem/potential free agent or draft pick come back healthier and more experienced and have an uptick in production? Linebacker depth got decimated last year. What if the young guys continue to blossom and are able to stay fresher with more support? Maybe Awuzie takes a step back from a career year but what if they upgrade at CB2 and keep everything else in tact? Assuming they work something out with Bates, they bring back the same core of players mostly in their primes or ascending with basically the same coaching staff that is also potentially ascending. The defense might be worse but the odds aren’t long that they might be better.

On offense deep ball efficiency should come down… if all variables are the same. Again, we’re talking about ascending talents here. Year 2 Chase with a full offseason in the system being able to work with his quarterback should be better than rookie Chase who had limited access to a rehabbing Burrow and hadn’t played a competitive football game in more than a year and a half.

Burrow has continually showed improvement when facing opponents for the second time. Last year he had nine games under his belt with the uncertainty of a reconstructed knee to worry about. Now he has seen the league for 29 games. 

Red zone efficiency was bad. Third down efficiency was bad. There’s a lot that goes into those metrics that has nothing to do with variance, but the point is if you’re penciling in regression for this offense, you’re ignoring some of the dynamic variables in the equation. Abnormally high go ball efficiency was the engine that drove the offense this year.  Yes they can’t count on that every year, but what if they don’t have to? 

Which brings us to the elephant in the room that has tentacles in all of this. Burrow has proven his ability to read and react is what makes him special. Now give him one more second. Jamar Chase is a threat everywhere on the field whether he gets separation or not. Now give him one more second. Give Joe Mixon .5 yard before he sees contact instead of -.5 yards. Analytics can calculate the probability of this team to regress, but Duke Tobin can change the equation by allocating resources to the offensive line. 

 Others contend 2021 success is all about Burrow. 

They didn’t have a quarterback. Now they lucked into a great one. The front office hasn’t changed their approach. It’s the same old Bengals.

First of all, put down those Joe Burrow’s rose colored glasses. He is the main pillar they are building around. His personality permeates through the building.  I routinely pinch myself at the reality of an offense that can gain less than five yards on first down and I DON’T have to assume a punt is coming soon.  He has been great.. at times. you could even call him streaky.  I fully expect him to improve and there are certainly factors bogging down his success that aren’t his fault. But let’s not pretend that he’s been an unstoppable force that’s solely responsible for this rebuild. The defense is contributing. The coaching staff is contributing. And, maybe most of all, the front office has been a major catalyst in the steady improvement over the last two years right on through the breakthrough in week 17 and the playoff run. 

On the other hand, some are willing to give a nod to recent front office moves,  but they can’t resist trotting out some of the same tired  narratives at the same time.

This franchise is cheap and hasn’t historically cared about winning.  Look at them though they’re loosening up those purse strings in free agency and it’s paying off. 

Mike Brown certainly doesn’t take the Mark Cuban approach to running a franchise but they don’t rank all that poorly in total salary year to year. Their normal neglect to spend this time of year isn’t cheapness. This is a draft and develop team. They aren’t spending in free agency now because they are turning over a new leaf. They had a string of bad drafts and the money they normally use to sign extensions is available to use in free agency to plug voids in the roster left by the John Ross’, the Cedric Ogbuehi’s, and the Billy Price’s of the world. 

Bengals Recent Draft Woes:

People point to guaranteed money and cash spend. The team’s strategy at managing the salary cap is a different story than their willingness to sign contracts that can help the team win.   Structuring contracts with bonuses to spread the cap hit can help short term but it causes less flexibility in the long run when they don’t know what they need.  

And oh by the way, this is the correct strategy for this market! Teams pay a premium in free agency. Cincinnati pays a premium on top of that. Relying on free agency dollars to build their roster puts them at a disadvantage. Teams consistently push chips onto the table to try to load up for a big push and then when they eventually have to face the cap music they get dragged for it. The Bengals steadfastly avoid backing themselves into a corner and they still get bashed. 

Part of the reason why i’m so disappointed with the Super Bowl result is less that the Bengals lost than that the Rams won. I still believe the Bengals team building approach is superior and now pundits have ammunition that stars and scrubs works. All in works better than all around. 

That game could have gone either way. The Bengals lost and they have resources to reload. If the Rams lost, they would have entered into crisis mode.

Some will look for big swings from the Bengals this offseason. I’m  looking for Tobin to work his magic. Spend the right amount. Add depth in the draft.  Don’t thread the needle this time around. Duke has the hammer. Smash the need. Don’t mortgage the future. But don’t dawdle tinkering with pass rush or CB2 week 1 of free agency. 

It’s simple, if they can’t block better, this is irreplicable. 

The Super Bowl loss hurts, but maybe in 2022 we’ll learn that all in might give you a chance, but draft and develop gives you two chances (or more).

Super Bowl LVI: Fantasies and Dreams

AFC Championship Triumph

 They did it! Somehow some way. It has been over a week since the game and it still doesn’t seem real.

It was a tale of two halves against Kansas City. For the first two quarters it went just like most people figured.  The Chiefs offense rolled and their defense did enough to slow down the Bengals offense.

When Cincy scored with a minute left in the half I thought oh no, too much time. When Cincy got a stop to start the second half I thought, okay if they don’t score here they’re in trouble. But they weren’t because this continues to be the season where things are different. Settling for field goals didn’t come back to haunt them. They didn’t get burnt staying loyal to their run game. They made second half adjustments and they all worked.

They kept their head, they weathered the storm, and they came charging back led by the unlikeliest of hero’s. Burrow sets the tone as the leader, but this team has evolved into a strange personification of my fantasy football team name from this year: 

The Fighting Anarumos

We’ll see where this goes. I got the strange feeling when the Rams pulled it out against the 49ers that destiny had been broken and the magic had run out.  However it turns out it was one heck of a ride. I have a pet peeve about calling players by their first names. It drives me up a wall. Yet, during that last overtime drive I must’ve said the word Joe 26 times.

Alright Joe.

C’mon Joe.

Here we go joe. 

On to the Super Bowl

All week thinking about this matchup, I can’t shake the feeling of last year when we were saying, “Man, the chiefs are down to a journeymen and a backup guard at tackle, that’s going to be trouble against the Bucs pass rush.. but Patrick Mahommes!”

This year once again we have defensive line strength up against offensive line Achilles heel. 

The Rams blowout scenario has haunted me for two weeks. A decent amount of national media members still believe in the magic of Joe Burrow, but the hard core analytic types can’t get past the obvious path to the Rams winning comfortably. 

But that’s just not what either of these teams have been this season. The Rams typically end up somehow getting in their own way for large chunks of the game and the Bengals fight and scratch and claw back until it’s a close game. 

All of the numbers tell one story about the Bengals. The run defense is bad. The offense is inefficient. To analysts, the statistics are ingredients. They have the whole season as their sample size, they mix it all together, they throw it in the oven, and pull it out to see what they’ve got: a solid team filled with fatal flaws. 

The error comes in thinking of the team as a finished product. The loaf of bread got burnt in the oven and doesn’t taste good. But a team is never a finished product. It’s a trajectory. Trusting the data often works because most change and evolution happens slow. But this Bengals team is more like a bubbling smoking volcano than a baked good. Volatile. Dynamic. Not necessarily explosive, but capable of it, and the numbers can’t keep up with the true definition of what this team is.

It is an intriguing contrast between the two teams:

Glamour, glitz, star power. Hollywood. Big city. Trade every draft pick you have to bring in superstars and then cobble together everything else around them. 

Vs. 

Gritty, tough resilience. Midwest. Small market. Build through the draft and fill holes with free agency. Well rounded.

Bengals on the Offensive

For the Bengals on offense it’s going to be a slog. They  are going to muck their way up and down the field and try to sneak enough shot plays to earn a couple red zone opportunities.  Can they be consistent enough with their quick passing game to score points? They have the personnel to do it. Any one of their receivers can win 1 on 1 matchups, and the Rams top heavy roster has chinks in the armor at linebacker, safety, and corners not named Jalen Ramsey.  I don’t think Rams defensive coordinator, Raheem Morris, is capable of disguising reads enough to confuse Burrow too often. 

Running back receiving targets will also be a huge X factor. If they are going to drop into soft coverage and send three or four pass rushers, the running backs need to be able to make a man miss and gain positive yardage to keep the offense on schedule.  Could Chris Evans be a secret weapon? He’s shown juice in limited opportunities this season. He got injured early in the year and never really got back into the mix until flashing lately as the kickoff returner and getting a carry in crunch time against the Titans.  It feels like wishful thinking. I think he’s capable and he will emerge as a  valuable weapon next year, but I don’t have high confidence the coaches will unleash him in this game.  They are going to dance with Mixon smashing into the D-line and sprinkle in Perine on third downs. 

I think this matchup will essentially play to a draw. They will try to run the ball without much success. The Rams defensive line will get theirs. But Joe Burrow will beg borrow and steal his way into field goal range five or six times and score  0 or 1 touchdown for 18 to 22 points.

On the Defensive 

The key to the game will be on the other side of the ball. Can the mad chef, coach Lou, stay hot? Some pundits have L.A.  with the coaching advantage, but Sean McVay is a little overrated at this point as an offensive coach and he has proven to be shaky with his clock management and time out usage. I’m  riding the hot hand, advantage Bengals.

The strength of this defense is versatility. 

They aren’t going to stifle you with run defense, but when they need to stiffen, D.J. Reader is a pillar they can rally around. Their pass rush doesn’t strike  fear into the hearts of offenses, but they have pass rush talent. Hendrickson vs. Whitworth is an interesting matchup. Whitworth is still playing at a high level by all accounts, but i think Hendrickson can beat him wide a few times and win the day.  The rest of the Rams line has had ups and downs, but the real key is Stafford. He’s not quite a statue but he certainly isn’t elusive. I think Hubbard and Hill can get home along with Hilton or Bell coming in with the occasional blitz. 

The player pundits are most underrating in this game is Chidobe Awuzie. He has had a career year and has played like a top 10 corner in the league. People are falling all over themselves that Odell Beckham Jr. is back to his old superstar self. Sure he had a good game against San Francisco’s secondary with Cooper Kupp lighting up the other side of the field. But i don’t think it’s far fetched to say Awuzie is the best corner Beckham has faced in the playoffs. It’s no guarantee they’ll be matched up against each other of course, but I think it makes the most sense. He can take him one on one which would open up the door to suffocate the rest of the offense.  They can disguise whatever bracket zone they want to throw at Kupp and try to cause Stafford to hesitate just a tick to allow Hendrickson and Co. to track him him down and force mistakes.

Prediction

In the end, the Bengals hold the Rams to 20 points. The Bengals only score 19… until #2 steps back on the field with the clock running down. 

What will be my fantasy football team name for next year?:

“No McPherson”

Final score: Bengals 22 Rams 20

Maybe Something Different

 The Cincinnati Bengals are in AFC championship game. Is it possible for something to seem surreal and feel like destiny at the same time? 

This team probably shouldn’t be on the verge of a Super Bowl.  Their star players just started their careers. Their head coach and coordinators on both sides of the ball had never led a unit for a full year in the NFL before they joined the Bengals. They should be stumbling regularly with each new hurdle they come up against.  And for the most part they have. 

Going to Chicago coming off a big win? Chicago’s intensity was a buzz saw and they flopped. 

Heavy favorite in a prime time game against Jacksonville? It took them until the final buzzer to take the lead. 

Waltzing in to face the Jets as the toast of the league after thrashing Baltimore? They took a punch, composed themselves, took control, and then got knocked out by a counterpunch. 

They  dug themselves a hole against the 49ers then clawed back into overtime only to short-arm the play calling in the red zone with a chance to snatch the win. 

With Each setback pundits  catalogued the evidence and built a construct of where the team stood in the league and what they were capable of in 2021. As a fan optimism and hope willed a more dynamic trajectory in my head for where the season was going. They are learning. They are growing. By the end of the year they have a chance to build momentum and peak at the right time. But as much as I wanted to believe what was happening my old thoughts on free agency classes and injury reports, all of the "what ifs" and "if only's..." from years past lingered hauntingly.  

Maybe Laveranues Coles CAN replace T.J. Houshmandzadeh. 

What if Antwan Odom is the guy to finally establish a reliable pass rush?  

If Tyler Eifert comes back and stays healthy, he's really going to put the offense over the top. 

The offensive line will really stabilize when Cordy Glenn gets healthy.  

Yet, time after time 2021 kept proving to be different.

Chidobe Awuzie WAS able to replace William Jackson. 

Trey Hendrickson IS an ascending pass rusher.  

D.J. Reader came back from a significant leg injury at full strength and has anchored the defense.  

A solid role player like Logan Wilson went down mid year and came back to bolster the defense.

Hendrickson. Awuzie. Ogunjobi as a compliment to Reader. Apple as a decent CB insurance policy. Chase over Sewell. Hit. Hit. Hit. Hit. Hit. 

Yes, they've smashed into multiple hurdles this year, but they keep getting back up and keep coming back stronger.  It all built to week 17 in a showdown with the top AFC contender that was rounding into form.  In the first half  it was step step step jump- smash: The Chiefs were scoring at will and it looked like they couldn't keep up. In the second half step step step jump. Holy crap they cleared it. 

First playoff win in 30 years? Their foot clipped the top of the hurdle, but they cleared it! 

First road playoff win ever ? Again not perfect form but they cleared it. 

Now they are going on the road again to face the big boss. Mahommes is firing on all cylinders. The Chiefs defense has heard over and over about how much Chase destroyed them and they've been stewing on it for four weeks. This hurdle seems like the toughest. This one might be too high. 

But despite the odds it's hard not to want to believe that something bigger is going on.  Don't think Bengals fans haven't been eying the only team the Bengals have ever played in the Super Bowl heating up going on their own run on the other side of the bracket. 40 years ago the Bengals and the 49ers played for the first time for the league championship and John madden broadcasted his first super bowl.  And now a month after Madden died planets strangely feel like they are aligning for a rematch. 

A year ago, right before the Super Bowl one of the hosts of the Around the NFL podcast, Chris Wesseling, lost his fight with cancer.  I listen to the show every week.  A lot of sports media content tries to thread the needle of discussing sports news and analysis while also mixing in comradery, comedy, wit, and off topic banter.  This show accomplishes that mission as well as almost anyone.  The show is largely about friendship and fandom, and Wesseling, a Cincinnati  native and estranged Bengals fan, was a large piece of the puzzle that really made the show work.  He had an analytical mind and loved to watch the sport so much that he was able to leverage his fandom into a career as a well-respected NFL writer and analyst.  I loved to listen to his thoughts and ideas and listen to how his personality blended with the other guys on the crew.  But I didn't always see eye to eye with him.  One of the biggest parts of his back story is how he got so fed up with the Bengals franchise during their decade-long slump in the 90's that he divorced himself from the team.  As a younger fan of the team that also lived through the same era and came out the other side with my fandom still in tact, I just couldn't understand his takes bashing the team.  Sometimes I'd have to pause the podcast and take a walk around the house fuming after listening to him revel in their demise over some early round playoff exit or another calamity that occurred where the team found their face in the dirt.  Even though I enjoyed and respected his work, I'd be lying if I didn't hold a little resentment towards him.  It wasn't until he passed away that I realized my feelings weren't resentment, they were more like regret.  The show is great because of the friendships amongst the cast members, but what really makes it special is their friendship with me.  I guess I always just thought maybe we could win him back.  What if...  If only...  

Wesseling left behind a loving family.  Although he never reconciled with the team, they were a part of him and his wife has taken heart in this improbable mini wave the Bengals have been riding during which she has even taken to dressing their young son in Bengals gear.  His podcast mates have pondered aloud recently whether or not this young swashbuckling crew could have won Chris back over to the franchise.  The answer is probably not.  He would have enjoyed the way they play certainly but he didn't seem like the kind of guy that would reverse his course when he had his mind made up about something. Still, at the risk of sounding overly hokey, I can't help but picture him sitting on a cloud somewhere with John Madden cackling at some of the football we've seen the last few weeks. I don't actually think spirits from above are pulling strings to help the Bengals on their late season charge, but when this much goes right and you're used to it almost always going wrong it's hard for the imagination not to wonder.      

We care about sports more than we should. But there’s just something about the team that you love. They can torture you to no end. But when it goes right it brings you up and opens doors of community and bonding like few things can.  I didn’t watch the Raiders game live. I waited until it was over and streamed it like I always do. But I didn’t have to watch it to know what happened. When I looked at my phone and found 95 text messages waiting for me from friends and family, I knew.  Our teams let us live on a cloud just for a little bit. And when they play we either come crashing down or we stay up there a little while. I will be watching this Chiefs game live.

Here we go Joe. Go win the game.

2O21 Week 1 Reactions

Week One takeaways:

Tee Higgins Looks Like a Monster

Could he play tight end? If they get him in the open field he might generate some Marshawn-Lynch-worthy highlights. Let’s make it happen Brian Callahan! Watch him run through that tackle on the first drive of the third quarter. Ooohph. He was on the sideline so he didn’t  break it far, but It’s coming. He is RAC waiting to happen.

D-line Dominance?

It’s going to break my heart when injuries break apart this D-line. I hope we get a chance to see their full potential. Duke Tobin deserves a much healthier portion of the heat that Zac Taylor has taken for what has happened the last two years, but at first glance it looks like he’s been pushing the right buttons with this year’s moves. Hendrickson, Ogunjobi, B.J. Hill. Tobin has it rolling. 

The Minnesota O-line had six holding penalties last week. It’s not like the refs just decided to start calling the holds that occur on every NFL play. The Vikings linemen were having to tackle Bengals defenders to keep them from breaking Kirk Cousins. Cincy blitzed Hilton one play but the DE beat his man and got there first. Whether Ogunjobi, Reader and the boys can control the game like they did last week is one of the top storylines for me in week 2.  Analysts keep harping on how bad the Vikings must be because of how shaky they looked last week. Are we burying the lead here?

Zac Attack

Speaking of Zac Taylor, he has taken criticism for going for it on 4th and 1 on his own 30 and opening the door for the Vikings to get back in the game. That drew a shoulder shrug from me. Everyone agrees NFL coaches should generally be more aggressive than they have been historically. So where’s the cutoff? The 35 yard line? The 40? Okay on the 40, but not good on the 39? Yes, Distance, clock, and score all matter. In this case I think Taylor felt he his team faced a situation where the chance for success on one play (needing to gain one yard) was good, and success on that play would contribute more towards putting a boot on the throat of their opponent than failure would contribute to losing the game. Looking at it in hindsight, I have to say he was right. He got the worst possible outcome (his offense could not gain a yard and his defense wasn’t able to minimize the damage), and his team still had many other opportunities to win the game. If they had been successful at worst they would have run two more minutes off the clock and at best they could have potentially gone up by three scores. If you are a young team/staff that wants to be good they have to figure out how to get a yard when they really need it. Now they have valuable experience to help them execute better the next time and they still won the game. It was worth the risk short term and long term.  

I don’t think Taylor’s seat should be as hot as everyone thinks it is. Ok, he has a bad record in his first two seasons. What does that actually tell us? Taylor is not a magician. How many coaches would have had a significantly higher win total with the same roster?  Is that what we’re looking for here, the second we’re sure the hire can’t pull rabbits out of his butt they should fire him and look for somebody who can? To quote Sam Wyche, C’mon people! “You don’t live in Cleveland!” Constant coaching turnover is a slippery slope as teams have proven over and over. Yes, this coaching staff is cutting their teeth. If that’s not what you want don’t hire a staff with almost no coordinating experience in the top three slots on the staff (HC, DC, and OC).” The Bengals hired Taylor because of his proximity to McVay” might be the most exasperating narrative around. They hired him because they were impressed talking to him and they wanted someone they could make their own and someone that could grow with the team and the city. The media doesn’t seem to get that. Luckily Mike Brown does. Has the team improved each year under Taylor? I don’t want to jinx it too much, but yes. Do the players appear to be buying in to what Taylor is selling? Yes. Ok then, let him make a few mistakes without everyone lining up with torches and pitchforks. Give him a half way decent roster and let’s see what he can do. 

Is this roster going to be the one to give him a fair shake? I have my fingers crossed. I can’t wait until weeks two and three to find out. 

What to Make of the 2021 Bengals Preseason and AFC North Predictions

The wait is finally over! The 2021 NFL season kicked off Thursday night and the rest of the league launches tomorrow.  Here are a few quick Cincinnati-Based preseason takes and my outlook on how i see the AFC North playing out this year:

Gloom and Doom for #1:

Is there anything more overblown than the "Ja'Marr Chase Struggles in the Preseason" saga?  

Let's start with the drops.  He dropped his last four targets and everyone from local media, to national analysts, to fantasy owners everywhere have seized on it like the whole world is chicken little and the biggest acorn in the world just cracked them in the skull. Okay they were mostly catchable balls, but branding them as "red alert, maybe this guy can't catch" miscues is a little agressive.  The first one was a quick slant that Brandon Allen threw a yard behind him.  Another one, Allen led him up the field into tight coverage and the safety was lining him up to take his head off.  Maybe at some point you want him putting his body on the line to make that play, but week 2 of the preseason is not the time to stretch out your body and let the defense take their best shot.  So he made a business decision?? Oh know!! The truth is, I have no idea and it doesn't really matter.  He's been in bubble-wrap-don't-get- hurt mode since January of 2020.  I'm not concerned that his reactions to the extreme chaos of a football play are a little rusty.  He's clearly competitive and dedicated.  It will come.  It might take one game.  It might take 15 games.  But it will come.  The last drop was a wide receiver screen that hit him right in his hands.There was a defender bearing down on him.  He did kind of a funky hop thing that screwed up his timing. He was clearly pressing to make something out of nothing.  But he should have caught it.  And he will.  Just wait.   

The "Chase isn't seperating in practice," rumblings strike a little more of a chord of fear in the bottom of my stomach. It takes me back to the spring when i was rewatching his game tape and i paused for a few moments trying to decide whether to rank him as the top receiver.  He does rely on his physicality to get open.  Is he going to be able to pull that off in the pros?  After mulling it over, I decided yes.  Whatever uptick he'll see in the size and athleticism of the defenders he'll be facing in the NFL he'll be able to match it as his body and rout running develop.  He was already a beast as a 19 year old.  What happens when he really dedicates himself?  It's more of a projection than i would like, but i still believe in it.  Will he be a bust?  No, I don't think that's likely.  Will he be a superstar?  That one is a little murkier.  But from what I've read and heard of his personality and work ethic, I wouldn't bet against him.  

Feisty Defense?

Is the defense good?  Of course injuries are always the biggest wild card here.  Although the team made it through preseason relatively unscathed compared to the prevous two years, they have already lost significant edge depth and their CB2. If D.J. Reader has anything to say about it, the D-line will be fine.  He was a terror in the preseason, consistently disposing of interior blockers and rushing throws from both Tom Brady and Ryan Fitzpatrick.  It would have been nice to see a full season from Joseph Ossai, but don't overrate the loss of him too much.  Sam Hubbard and Trey Hendrickson might surprise you with how well they hold up.  The Bengals routinely took pot shots from media for swapping out Carl Lawson for Hendrickson in free agency based on Lawson's greater potential as a pure pass rusher.  The Bengals took a different approach here.  They are addressing the lack of pass rush production by trying to get better on earlier downs opting for a bigger player with a better injury history.  So far that bet has paid off.    

The secondary appeared to be the strength of the unit early in camp, but Trae Waynes going down quickly hilighted their CB depth is a little shaky.  They're still better than last year, but I think we'll find Waynes is more of a keystone to them consistently performing well than any of us would care to admit.   He needs to come back healthy in week 4. 

I'm optimistic about the young LB's, but i think they'll have some growing pains this year.  

All in all, the defense has more depth and potential than previous years.  The front office has cleared out some of the dead wood and they are in a good position to grow and flourish.  They need to catch a few breaks (or avoid some), but i have high hopes they will make a leap.  

It All Hinges on This:

Did the Bengals do enough to improve the O-line in the offseason?  Most pundits lean towards no. I hedge a little more.  I wish they would have done more.  I think the starting O-line will be good enough with the caveat that Xavier Su'a-filo is still a below average starter that could weigh them down.  Their depth feels like they are one injury away from being back where they were last year.  The second string interior O-line, comprised of three rookies, is going to have ups and downs when they see the field. At OT, i'd feel way better if Hakeem Adeniji was the fourth OT rather than Isaiah Prince, but they might be better off than people think with Fred Johnson as the first man off the bench at both LT and RT.  Johnson was awful when they tried him at guard last year, but whenever i've seen him fill in at OT he has been okay.  If someone really goes down and he has to start double digit games, well maybe then i'm singing a different tune but for now i like him as the primary backup.  Don't rule out D'ante Smith as a long shot to surprise some people if he has to play in a pinch.  They might have struck gold taking Smith on day two of the draft.  He's shown enough in his first camp/preseason to hang your hopes on him as the team's best chance to develop their O-line from being a constant concern to being consistently good within the next two to three seasons.  

It's disappointing Jackson Carman didn't win the LG spot, but all hope is not lost.  In the first preseason game, he didn't look like he'd be sniffing the field any time soon, but after receiving critisim for his work ethic and preparedness early in camp, he responded well and flashed potential in the seond and third games.  I'm still skeptical about his ability to contribute much this year, but there is some chance they decide his athleticism gives them more punch in the run game and he ends up coming through for them.

In the end, like most things in this league, it all comes down to injuries.  

AFC North Predictions:

Pittsburgh 11-6

Baltimore 10-8

Cincinnati 9-8 

Cleveland 7-10

After all of these years of doubting Ben Roethlisberger i've come full circle to believing in one last revival season when everyone else is counting him out.  The offensive skill weapons can rival anyone in the league and the core of a potent defense is still in tact.  

The Ravens have taken more injury lumps in the preseason than anyone.  It's tempting to crater them into a lesser record here, but i still believe in the infrastructure and their potency of Lamar Jackson

  

Cincinnati makes a leap here, but it's really not that big of a jump if you consider what might have been with a full Burrow season last year.  They should have been at 6 or 7 wins last year.  It's to hard to believe a more well-rounded roster in 2021 doesn't get them another win or two.  The home opener against Minnesota was a coming out party for the Carson Palmer / Chad Johnson era once upon a time.  Maybe there will be magic in the air to start the year off?  I've got them at 3-1 against the NFC North and  2-2 against the AFC West. I think they handle the Jets and Jaguars and go 2-4 in the division with wins against the Browns and Ravens.  Overall it will be a positive season, but they'll need to tighten up their division play to really take the next step.  

Cleveland rounds out the division with a disappointing 7-10 record.  They're a little overhyped at this point based on the beliefs that the strength of their offensive line will hold, their talented defense will gel, and that Baker Mayfield will even out his erractic play to guide them back to the playoffs.  I'm betting against all three.