2022 NFL Mock Draft

 

1. Jacksonville

This is the most uncertainty with the number pick that I can remember in a while.  The Jaguars would love to move down and acquire more assets, but there just isn’t incentive for anyone to come up and get this pick.  Aidan Hutchinson is the best bet of the top tier players in this class.  He is capable of ascending into that rare group of pass rushers that can generate their own opportunities. He isn’t quite as talented as someone like Myles Garrett or T.J. Watt, but the next tier down is in play kind of on the Joey Bosa level. 

The Pick: Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan

 

2. Detroit

The Lions just need talent.  A trade down isn’t likely in the cards. O-Line is relatively set and they’re not ready to tie themselves to a QB yet so they go defense.  The buzz is Travon Walker might go number 1 in which case Detroit would sprint to the podium to keep Hutchinson in the state of Michigan.  In this scenario Jacksonville comes to their senses. Detroit is left looking for other kneecap biters and they turn to Walker.  People are projecting great things for this guy.  For the life of me, I'm not sure what they're looking at. Watching his footage I kept waiting and waiting for him to do something interesting. It took me three games to finally find him getting some edge pressure.  I’m lucky I didn’t fall asleep and miss it.  He holds his ground.. A LOT.  He can win around the edge but it seems to only come when the opposing line is overmatched. I get the idea that some of it may be scheme driven, but he still had plenty of rush opportunities where he just didn’t beat his man.  I see him as a 3-4 DE and i'm not sure why you'd take that position early in round 1.  The value just doesn't add up.   

The Pick: Travon Walker, DE, Georgia

 

3. Houston

It’s a long road ahead for the Texans and they’re just looking to stockpile talent.  With his tall frame and silky smooth movement skills, Ahmad Gardner should translate into a defender that can match up with just about anyone. 

The Pick: Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati

 

4. New York Jets

The sun rises, the sky is blue, and the Jets need edge talent.  Jermaine Johnson will get the chance to break the curse.  He’s a beast.  I’ve never seen a guy strike an offensive tackle and spin him like a top.  The RT from Miami, he believes.  

The Pick: Jermaine Johnson, EDGE, Florida State

 

5. New York Giants TRADE to New Orleans

This seems a little telegraphed, but the Saints invested future capital to acquire ammunition this year which probably means they have their eye on somebody.  Other QB needy teams sit waiting at 6, 8, and 9 and the Giants capitalize. 

The Pick: Malik Willis, QB, Liberty

 

6. Carolina

Carolina’s owner is a Pitt booster and the buzz is they might just grab Kenny Pickett here.  I think they play chicken and see if they can land him on day 2.  Instead they grab someone to block for him.  I’m not wild about Neal this high, but I’ve come around on ranking him as the top OT in this class.  His big hulking frame is just too much for rushers to deal with.  I’d still say he’d probably be the third or fourth best OT in a lot of classes, but in this draft with Carolina’s need it makes sense to take him here.  There was a story that Neal might fall due to his medicals.  It’s not clear what the issue is or if that report is real, but keep an eye on that.    

The Pick: Evan Neal, OT, Alabama

 

7. New York Giants (from Chicago)

The Giants will give Daniel Jones one more chance.  Kayvon Thibodeaux was once considered a candidate to go number 1 before falling victim to the obligatory, “Does he love football enough?” storyline that seems to bubble up every year.  He’s not as consistent as Hutchinson, but he still has the ability to force the issue attacking the quarterback. The Giants make out like bandits here. 

The Pick: Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregon

 

8. Atlanta

The Falcons skill position talent well is about as dry as it gets.  Pair Jameson Williams with Kyle Pitts and all of a sudden they have something cooking.  Williams’ tore his ACL in January, but that shouldn’t bother the Falcons too much and might actually be ideal for them as they try to position themselves for QB talent next year. 

The Pick: Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama

 

9. Seattle

The Seahawks currently have Stone Forsythe and Jake Curhan at the top of the OT depth chart.  Charles Cross isn’t quite as big as Neal, but he gets similar results.  Solid.  Steady. 

The Pick: Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State

 

10. New York Jets

It might be a little bittersweet for the Jets to take another safety high in the first round.  Kyle Hamilton has the kind of versatility that might make it worth it.  6’4” 220 lbs. safeties with range for days don’t grow on trees.

The Pick: Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame

 

11. Washington

Washington has invested a lot of resources in the defense the past few years.  It’s time for some maintenance on the offensive line.  Ikem Ekwonu isn’t my favorite prospect, but some have him going as high as number 1 overall.  He looks like an elite O-lineman.  He moves like an elite O-lineman.  But he has enough lapses pass blocking that I’m a little worried how he’s going to translate.  He needs to be a little more patient.  He seems to strike too early and lose his power and balance.

The Pick: Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State

 

12. Minnesota

Ironically, Mike Zimmer is gone and the Vikings finally snag a high end CB prospect.  Zimmer was notorious for squeezing talent out of DB’s.  Imagine what he would have done with this guy.  Stingley is ultra talented, but he sort of Looks bored in his 2021 footage.  Maybe he had too much success too early as a true freshman on that 2019 team?  I'm interested to see if he refocuses and reinvigorates himself with the new challenge of playing at the next level. 

The Pick: Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU

 

13. Houston (from Cleveland)

Houston already landed the top CB.  Now they grab Mike Evans Jr.  Drake London is big and strong, but moves like someone 5” shorter.

The Pick: Drake London, WR, USC

 

14. Baltimore

Big nose tackle that moves like someone 40 lbs. lighter.  Defies the laws of physics.  Of course this guy falls to Baltimore.  What a nightmare.

The Pick: Jordan Davis, IDL, Georgia

 

15. Philadelphia

The Eagles have a lot of assets to upgrade their talent level and they kick it off here with a big fast playmaker for the middle of their defense.  Devin Lloyd could be a culture changer. 

The Pick: Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah

 

16. New Orleans (from Indianapolis through Philadelphia) TRADE to New York Giants

The Giants go a similar rout.  Nakobe Dean isn’t as big as Lloyd, but he’s just as explosive.  He can cover.  He can rush.  He can come downhill and knife to the ball carrier.  Dean might be the prototypical modern linebacker.

The Pick: Nakobe Dean, LB, Georgia

 

17. Los Angeles Chargers

Keenan Allen has some prime left, but with a franchise quarterback in the fold the Chargers need to reload on skill position talent.  Olave’s hands are a little inconsistent, but his blend of speed and route running could push him a little higher on the board even. 

The Pick: Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State

 

18. Philadelphia (from New Orleans)

The Eagles take another crack at WR and the Ohio State WR’s go back to back.  Wilson isn’t quite as polished as Olave, but he might have more upside.  I’m not sure if he turns into a WR1, but lining him up opposite DeVonta Smith might set him up perfectly to maximize his potential. 

The Pick: Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State

 

19. New Orleans (from Philadelphia) TRADE to New York Giants

The Giants continue to check off needs adding a third talented defender for their new head coach.   Booth Jr. was a little too talented to evaluate.  I didn’t see him get challenged much so it’s tricky to figure out how he projects, but he certainly flashed enough to take him here.

The Pick: Andrew Booth Jr., CB, Clemson

 

20. Pittsburgh

Bearcat/Bengals fans worst nightmare.  Mike Tomlin has been circling Desmond Ridder for months.   I like Ridder as a leader, but I’m curious if he can reign himself in 10% to steady out his play a little and cut down on mistakes. 

The Pick: Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati

 

21. New England 

The Patriots let their star corner walk and attempt to bring in the next one. 

The Pick: Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington

 

22. Green Bay (from Las Vegas)

The Packers are retooling their pass rush.  They have squeezed more production out of Rashan Gary than I could have imagined.  Now they add another big DE for their arsenal. 

The Pick: George Karlaftis, DE, Purdue

 

23. Arizona

The Cardinals have been weak up the middle for a few seasons.  They’ve tried to patch it through free agency, but it hasn’t really worked.  Zion Johnson is going to dominate, but he should stabilize things a bit.

The Pick: Zion Johnson, G, Boston College

 

24. Dallas

The Cowboys once vaunted offensive line is in desperate need of retooling.  Trevor Penning is tough with mean streak regularly on display.  He fights his man to the ground and then attacks them again on his hands and knees.  In the games I watched, he held up well against Iowa St.  North Dakota State roughed him up a bit.  Sothern Illinois too.   It’s hard to take him early if he's not going to dominate that level of competition.  Others have him more highly rated than I do. 

The Pick: Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa

 

25. Buffalo

The Bills signed Mitch Morse to play center, but they can’t resist the top C in the class.  Linderbaum didn’t do athletic testing but he flashes plenty of athleticism on tape.  Short arms and size hold him back from going a little higher, but it doesn’t seem to hinder him watching him play.   

The Pick: Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa

 

26. Tennessee

The run on O-line continues.  Kenyon Green is another guy I didn’t like as much as consensus.  He’s like the IOL version of Ekwonu.  Looks like a dominate NFL linemen, but inconsistent pass blocking gives me pause.

The Pick: Kenyon Green, G, Texas A&M

 

27. Tampa Bay

The Buccaneers retool from free agency losses.  This safety class is flush with athletic strong safeties that can cover.  It will be interesting to see how they come off the board.  Is Cine propped up a little bit playing behind that Georgia defensive front?  I think life was easy for him, he’s talented enough to adapt and excel.

The Pick: Lewis Cine, S, Georgia

 

28. Green Bay

Aaron Rodgers finally gets his Rd 1 receiver!   

The Pick: Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas

29. Kansas City (from San Francisco through Miami)

The Chiefs are also in the process of retooling their WR corps, but instead they opt to beef up their defense.  Elam mirrors well and has impressive long speed.  I saw him take an angle and chase down multiple routes/ball carriers who had a head start on him. He got dinged up against Alabama, but stayed in the game gimpy and didn’t get picked to death.

The Pick: Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida

 

30. Kansas City

More cheap D-talent for the K.C.  Mafe is a little stiff, but he gives RT’s fits with his lower body girth and power.

The Pick: Boye Mafe, DE, Minnesota

 

31. Cincinnati

Alright Bengals fans. We’re in uncharted territory here. Assessing options at 31 is WAY harder than 5.

Let’s start with needs. 

1. Left Guard

It sounds like the Bengals are open to drafting into this slot, but they’re just as happy letting Jackson Carman, Akeem Adeniji, and Trey Hill duke it our for the starters slot. I’m not ready to give up on Carman either, but hopefully they look at bringing back Quinton Spain as a safety net. My preference would be to go all in on the offense. Do both. Draft IOL early, let Carman and Adeniji fight for G2, and bring Spain in as plan C. 

At 31 there aren’t too many avenues to go this rout. Linderbaum is their best bet allowing them to slide Karas into guard. Zion Johnson should work. Most are drooling of Kenyon Green, but as I mentioned above that would be pretty disappointing. Regardless none are options in this mock.

2. OT3 

Most people would say CB or DT here but I’m not having it. That doesn’t necessarily mean you address it at pick 31, they should be actively looking to upgrade the Isaiah Prince roster spot. If Riley Reif is healthy and open to that role, great. Maybe that buys enough time until they figure out what they have with D’ante Smith. Let’s avoid being one or two injuries away from the world where we felt like win or lose each game was a moral victory if Burrow didn’t leave on a cart. If we stay away from that , people are underestimating the ceiling here. I don’t want to hear about pass rush. If you’re up by 20 points, Joe Burrow is your pass rush. Yes the AFC has loaded up. Keep that offensive line solid and it won’t matter. Just watch.

They won’t pick an OT here and even I admit if they add an OT, they should wait a round or two.  

3.  CB2

Corner is probably 1 or 2 on most peoples’ wish list. Apple should be the third corner at worst and they don’t have much behind him.  Elam and Booth should be the targets and I go back and forth on Kyler Gordon but I’d be okay with him if that’s what they decide.

4. DT

There isn’t really any depth behind B.J. Hill . Converting a tweener like Logan Hall has been discussed, but that seems risky this early. Devonte Wyatt has the measurables. He just doesn’t quite have the production upside from what I saw. I’d prefer DeMarvin Leal. Maybe they can sneak him into the second round.

5.S

The starting safeties are good, but who knows where the Jessie Bates contract dispute is going and Vonn Bell is heading into a contract year. The value at this spot figures to be a little stronger than other positions. Vine is gone but Brisker, Pitre are still available. But my man is Daxton Hill. Michigan played him almost in a slot role. He struggles a little 1:1 with high end receivers but dial that load back a little and you have a nasty weapon for 3 safety looks. Walk him around a little. Bring him off the edge. Keep him in the middle and let him chase to the ball. He doesn’t have quite as much physicality as some of the other guys but he still packs a punch and does a better CB impersonation than they do. He’ll replace the retired Ricardo Allen and serve as insurance if they lose Bates or Mike Hilton. Overall he just gives Lou Anarumo another dimension to work with. 

The Pick: Daxton Hill, S, Michigan

32. Detroit (from Los Angeles Rams)

The Lions go back to the Georgia well.  Wyatt blends strength and penetration skills well.  As with Cine, I wonder how much Alabama effect is going on with this defense (the overall quality of the line masks each player's individual quality)? How good are they really?

The Pick: Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia

2022 NFL Draft: QB's Anyone?

It’s almost draft day! I have to get my quarterback takes on record before I try to sneak in a mock draft prior to Thursday. 

This quarterback class has been dragged through the mud so much that maybe it is even becoming underrated?  Quarterback needy teams are beside themselves, but if you're looking for a backup quarterback this class actually seems deeper than normal.  That doesn't sound very exciting, but usually once you get past the starters it's one or two names before you start talking yourself into the Kellen Mond's and the Ian Book's of the world.  Teams trying to draft a starter might be crossing their fingers that one of these guys hits the high high end of their projection and maximizes their potential. That’s dicey. The real sweet spot is for teams that to snag a guy to groom and come off the bench in a tight spot. Backup quarterback is an underrated commodity.  Having someone that can start a few games and hold down the fort can save a season.  Having that guy on a rookie contract is even more valuable.   

Week 1 Starters:

N/A

I can’t rate any of these guys in this category.  Everyone just seems to have at least one flaw that makes me nervous handing them the keys to the car right out of the gate.  It’s just asking for trouble.  

After Week 1 Starters:

Okay you don’t want to push all of the chips into the middle on day 1, but they have some reasonable probability of fulfilling starter potential and teams should look for opportunities to get them on the field in year 1. 

1.   1.    Malik Willis, Liberty, RS Senior

6' 225 lb. ball of muscle with home run speed that can make people miss.  This is the lone franchise QB prospect in this class that warrants a team committing  100% to him as their starter (even if it takes a year or more to transition to him to pro competition).    

While running, his cuts are a little exaggerated at times and might cause him to take some hits as he adjusts to the league's tackling ability.   He doesn't threaten Lamar Jackson for the crown of most electric quarterback when he decides to rush, but he's in the conversation at the Kyler Murray/Jalen Hurts level.  His arm strength jumped off the screen to me more than anyone in this class. He rocks and fires at multiple arm angles and the ball gets there in a hurry. He doesn't have pinpoint accuracy, but he's not hopeless either.  I'd prefer if he were only exposed to spot starting duty in year one, but he'll survive on his athleticism if he needs to. 

2.    2.   Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh, RS Senior

Same category, different reasons.  Pickett is turning 24 this year.  You can’t groom him for too long.   But his ceiling isn’t high enough to commit to him as plan A with no plan B.  At 6’3” his size is adequate.  His accuracy and arm strength are adequate. His processing is adequate.  But where does that get you? At his age can he improve or is it what you see is what you get?

He scrambles in the pocket well, but sometimes leaves too early. He can rush well enough, but he's most dangerous throwing on the run. He has some potential, but I can't picture him as more than a mid-tier starter. Kirk Cousins keeps popping in my head.  He'll do 5 things that look like he has it all figured out and then 2 that make you scratch your head. 

 

Backup Fodder?:

Don’t draft them to start, but maybe down the road you find out have something.

3.    3.   Bailey Zappe, Western Kentucky, RS Senior

And the 2022 Tyler Huntley Memorial Award (for the quarterback I'm way higher on than most people) goes too:  Bailey Zappe.  He's only 6'1", but he navigates the pocket and reads the field well. He threads the needle of having a bold attacking style while avoiding recklessness.    If I had any guts, I'd tout him as a late day 1 or early day 2 prospect..  But i don't think he'll go there so i'm splitting the difference between the late round UDFA consensus and my take that he's going to start in this league at some point.  I think he can be what people want Baker Mayfield to be.  It's hard to grade college players against the wide array competition levels.  I'm always looking for the small school guys to dominate a little more than prospects playing in the bigger conferences.  While I'm not big on college stats,  Zappe did set the single season college record for yards and touchdowns. 

 

4.   4.    Kaleb Eleby, Western Michigan, RS Sophomore

And the runner up for the Tyler Huntley Award goes to: Kaleb Eleby.  Eleby is another shorter prospect at 6'1", but he has a little more rushing ability than Zappe.  He reminds me of Russell Wilson with his patience in the pocket and his ability to navigate to space when he needs to keep the defense honest (even if he doesn’t quite have Wilson’s deep ball talent). He ran a pretty RPO heavy offense in college.  Does a team land him with that in mind as the vision for their offense?

5.   5.    Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati, RS Senior

Unpopular opinion alert.  Sorry Bearcats fans.  I went into my evaluation of Ridder hoping to endorse a Cincinnati quarterback as one of the league's future stars, but when all was said and done I couldn't quite get there.  Ridder has been lauded for his leadership, competitiveness and as being the most pro ready prospect in this class.  True, true, and tr..well, not quite on that third bullet point.  He does a lot of things well and has the intangibles you want in a starting quarterback.  He's bold.  But unlike Zappe, he pushes the envelope juuust a little more and crosses that wreckless line a too often for my liking.  He navigates the pocket well, then he'll hold onto the ball for that extra second and take a blind side strip sack.  He reads the field well and then forces a couple throws he shouldn't.  He’s accurate and then he'll whiff on a throw, even on something as simple as a little swing pass in the flat.  

Maybe he'll develop, but a lot of it looks to me like it's hardwired into his personality and he'll end up making too many costly mistakes to be a long term starter.  

Backup Fodder:

It’s not inconceivable these guys end up leading a franchise, but the probability is lower.

6.  6.     Skylar Thompson, Kansas State, RS Senior

Solid.  Makes good reads and good throws, but has a little less starting potential than the guys ahead of him. I was pretty confident watching him that he was going to make a good decision with the football.  That should have value on someone's roster. 

7.       Sam Howell, North Carolina, Junior

I started calling Howell the COVID quarterback… he needs six feet of separation to pull the trigger on a throw.  He did look better in 2020 when he had more draftable talent around him, but I think it was just masking his issues. 

8.       Matt Corral, Ole Miss, RS Junior

I think Corral actually grades out highest at the position’s most important trait: processing. Am I underrating him like I underrated Mac Jones?  Corral just doesn't have quite enough downfield arm talent and accuracy to capitalize on his ability to read the field.  He puts himself in harms way a lot and doesn't really have the frame to take the punishment.  But as a backup? Sign me up.

Practice Squad All-Stars:

9.       9. Jack Coan, Notre Dame, RS Senior

Looks like a blast from the past: Bigger bodied lumbering pocket passer (Although, his listed height/weight seem smaller than he looks).  I don't see any upside here beyond being a solid QB2, but you could certainly do worse trying to bring in a camp arm.  I think he'll end up on a practice squad. 

 

10.  10.  Carson Strong, Nevada RS Junior

I heard some buzz on Strong, but I wasn't enamored with him.  He seemed a little stiff and didn't excel enough anywhere else to get me excited about drafting him.  I'd pass.

Grown Up Moves

Looking back at the 2021 Bengals, their offensive line play reminded me of an angsty teenager. Some flashes but altogether unreliable. Sometimes reckless to the point of peril and disaster. Quinton Spain was sometimes considered the dependable one. A brash comeback attempt from Trey Hopkins at center led to disappointment. Right guard was a revolving door of flailing youth prone to falling flat on their face. After Reiff went down RT wasn’t much better. 

Within hours of the beginning of free agency the Bengals added Alex Cappa and Ted Kerras and i got the immediate feeling of moving up to the grown ups table at Thanksgiving. They weren’t names that popped off the screen while reading up on available free agents but the skill sets, the contracts, and the timing all seem to fit into place like lost puzzle pieces.

Solid. Consistent. Tough. 

All were words used to describe the Bengals two newest O-line recruits.  That’s what they need. They’re not trying to build a juggernaut offensive line.  They’re trying to build one that’s reliable. Both contracts reportedly are for multiple years at reasonable rates for players under 30 years old. 

I’ll keep crossing my fingers until the ink dries on the contracts later this week, but this should provide them with the stability that everyone craved, AND allow them the flexibility to keep building. 

They still need a game plan at right tackle, a center or LG (wherever Karras doesn’t play) and a swing guard so that we’re not one sprained ankle from reopening the turnpike that leads from the opposing D-line right into Joe Burrow’s lap (I’m all for bringing Spain back for that role. Having a player of his caliber as plan B is the next step for this roster). 

The assumption is Trey Hopkins will be let go, but could he be the plan at center until April when they might or might not draft somebody with one of their first couple picks? 

Rounding out the offense, I assume they’ll do something at tight end now that Uzomah is off the board. O.j. Howard (update: snapped up by Buffalo), Hayden Hurst, and Tyler Conklin (update: the Jets swiped him too!) are all names that have been floated. Gerald Everett, Maxx Williams, and Robert Tonyan interest me a little less. Austin Hooper might be worth considering if he’s motivated into pursuing a revenge tour after getting cut by the Browns.  There’s also a certain future hall of fame veteran with a little gas left in the tank who would likely make red zone life much easier for both Mixon and Burrow.  After the Brady unretirement news the assumption is Rob Gronkowski is returning to Tampa, but so far there hasn’t been an indication confirming it. Maybe, just maybe, Gronkowski is considering whether he likes smoking cigars better than sipping kale smoothies?.. Probably he’d just rather wait to commit to Tampa until training camp or something and it’s not worth fantasizing. 

On defense, we’re all curious about CB2. There are some options on the table, but most likely they settle for resigning Eli Apple and keep their eyes on the draft for competition. I’d lobby for an Apple upgrade, but if it means sacrificing contract dollars towards RT and a swing IOL, I’m out.  

The other need percolating is DT depth but I think their current roster is versatile enough to let that ride. More pass rush (interior or edge) would be nice, but  again anything that would be a significant upgrade jeopardizes tightening up remaining leaks on offense.  I say let the kids on defense have their shot, keep ears to the ground for some cheap veteran depth, and adjust later if needed. On offense it’s adults only!

The league year officially started today. We’ll see what else Tobin and company have up their sleeves. I like their plan so far and I’ve got a feeling there’s more coming. Stay tuned!

One More Second

The most  unexpected biproduct of having your team make the Super Bowl is how disorienting it is to not turn the page on the season until February. It’s free agency time (already!) baby!  

In my previous post I laid out the rallying cry the Bengals offseason:

One more second.

The offense is brimming with potential. They have versatile weapons at every skill position. They have all the ingredients to be an explosive all time offense.. except one. 

The pieces were all in place last season, but the offense ran hot and cold and sputtered down the stretch. We all know what needs to be done. It has been documented over and over. It’s the one tired narrative i can’t really get mad about because it’s actually true. 

One more second.

What can this offense do with one more second to break down and dissect opposing defenses. The entire offseason focus needs to be centered around one more second. 

Does that mean they should dump all of their money into linemen in day 1 of free agency? It’s more complicated than that. Let’s hash through it.

First Step: Free Agency

1. Terron Armstead, Saints
2. Duane Brown, Seahawks
3. Eric Fisher, Colts
4. Trent Brown, Patriots
5. Morgan Moses, Jets
6. Joe Noteboom, Rams
7. Riley Reiff, Bengals
8. Brandon Shell, Seahawks
9. Bobby Massie, 

Here’s the list. It’s in rough order, but you can definitely quibble after.. well,  all of it.

The unquestioned top name, Armstead, will get big money but he has missed at least six games in four of his last six seasons. Duane Brown, number two on the list, will be 37 years old before the season starts. Eric Fisher is Eric fisher. Maybe you get some stability, but you’re stuck with the “Who is going to play on the right side?” quandary. Can anyone outside of New England motivate Trent Brown? If you can keep him healthy and engaged it would feel nice having a mountain blotting out the sun on the right side but can you count on that?Morgan Moses maybe makes the most sense on this list as a right tackle who has been consistently decent and hasn’t missed a game in the last seven years. Still you’re going to have to commit some decent cash to a 31 year old to get him. I don’t really have high hopes for anyone else.  I’d be okay with Reif if he’s healthy but rumor has it he’s considering retirement. They might be better off spending money on IOL and adding two guys at the bottom or off this list. Take a committee into camp and see if anyone serviceable rises to the surface. It’s not ideal and they tend to hesitate on big money at guard, but looks more attractive when you weigh the risk of ponying up for Armstead, one of the Browns, or relying on the draft/development route.

En Guard

1. Ryan Jensen, Buccaneers
2. Brandon Scherff, Commanders
3. Laken Tomlinson, 49ers
4. James Daniels, Bears
5. Bradley Boseman, Ravens 
6. Andrew Norwell, Jaguars
7. Ben Jones, Titans
8. Connor Williams, Cowboys
9. Austin Corbett, Rams
10. Brian Allen, Rams
11. Germain Ifedi, Bears
12. Alex Cappa, Buccaneers
13. Quinton Spain, Bengals
14. Mike Glowinski, Colts

The outlook at guard/center is a little brighter. Everyone from Adam Jones to Ian Rapaport have been talking up buzz that Ryan Jensen is heading to Cincinnati, but has the market fermented too much for their taste buds? Brandon Scherff would be exciting, but he won’t be cheap and he has missed at least 5 games in 3 of the last 4 seasons. Jensen, Daniels, and Boseman all offer G/C flexibility. Honestly, I would make it my mission to get two of the top five guys on this list, plus bring back Spain, plus add one more from whatever’s left after the free agency frenzy dust settles. If you fix this line the offense hums. Worry all you want about the need to upgrade at 3 technique DT and CB. You’re underestimating the potential of this offense. If they thread the offense/defense needle again, yes, they can win. But if they fix the o-line and stay clear of the always lurking major injury monsters this offense can checkmate the league. Period. I want Jackson Carman to be plan C not plan B. 

But prepare yourself for the reality of one guy on this list plus Spain and Carman as plan A at RG.  

One More Second?…

As in, maybe there’s a trade coming to acquire one more second round pick?  This could take shape in a variety of forms. Maybe they aren’t able to solve all of their blocking woes in free agency and they need more ammo to solve their problems.  I havent looked at guards yet in this draft class but the OT crop looks to have a pretty big plateau with day 2/day 3 talent.  There are a couple guys set to go day 1 based on potential and a couple more guys that teams will reach for ahead of 31. Chances are if they still need a tackle at the end of April they might as well move back into the second round to get him. This feels scary because they used a similar strategy last year with Jackson Carman and year one was a bust, but maybe adding a pick and taking multiple bites at the apple is the right way to go. 

A more exciting option would be to tap into the rumors that Dallas is exploring trade options for RT L’aell Collins to try to soothe some of their salary cap pain. Collins, under 30 years old with a few years left at a reasonable rate of about $10 million per year, checks a lot of the boxes that typically appeal to Cincy’s decision makers. They’ll struggle to check those boxes with this free agent crop that’s heavy on more expensive or less talented 30+ year olds. Would Dallas bite on swapping their 2nd round pick and Collins for pick 31? It feels simultaneously too good to be true and too pricey (for a guy Dallas sounds like they’ll end up cutting), but it’s not outlandish. After three seasons as a high end RT, Collins lost the 2020 season to a hip injury that eventually required surgery. He came back healthy  in 2021 but lost 5 games to a drug suspension and reportedly played less consistent for the rest of the season.  To complicate matters, the Bengals aren’t the only ones thinking of trying to jump start Collins’ career. If a bidding war ensues, it’s unclear how bold the Bengals would be.  If his former O-line coach, Frank Pollack, vouches for him they might be willing to pull the trigger. Plus, they’d be one step closer to fully embracing their identity as LSU East so why not right?

Speaking of trades, other rumors flying have centered around the potential for the Bengals to pursue a trade for Laremy Tunsil. Except, that scenario would not involve getting back a second rounder. They’d be ponying up pick 31 and probably one or two more picks and his current contract would have them on the hook for only two more years at a heftier $18 million price tag. Then you have to figure out who’s playing on the right side and what to do next year in his contract year. 

One more second, just be patient.

Free agency starts today. Be patient. Don’t panic. Their plan is not going to match what you want their plan to be. And about 30 other teams need offensive line too. What they plan to do and who they actually acquire won’t match either. They are going to miss out on some of their targets and it won’t necessarily be their fault.  Harold Landry just got $52 million guaranteed and over $17 million annually.  Mike Williams signed for $40 million guaranteed and $20 million per year. There are going to be some stupid contracts handed out the next few weeks. When Terron Armstead and Brandon Scherf go flying off the board, don’t hyperventilate when it looks like the Bengals are sitting on their hands 60 minutes after free agency opens. They will make moves. Last year we had to complain for weeks when the Bengals missed out on Matt Feiler and Kevin Zeitler and swapped  Carl Lawson for Trey Hendrickson. Sure an extra guard sounds nice in hindsight, but Feiler didn’t exactly solve the chargers’ problems last year. Chidobe Awuzie made more of an impact. 

We don’t have to worship every move the team makes, but there’s a window of thoughtful analysis in the middle somewhere in between homerism and automatic scorn. 

It would be nice to add four starting caliber offensive linemen in the first day of free agency so we can stop worrying about it. It’s just not going to happen. The roster isn’t set until August. There will be trades, roster cuts, and the draft in between now and then. It might take all summer for them to acquire what they really need and as was proven last year even if it looks like they are wrong they still might be right.   They’ve at least earned the benefit of the doubt.

C’mon Duke! Don’t let us down now buddy. Winning feels too good. Just give us one more second. 

So Close But How Far?

It was a dream for Bengals fans watching the football season unfold in December and January where the team finally caught all of the breaks we always thought we had a chance to catch. 

But in the end the rickety offensive line proved to be too much. Yes, we’ll all have the Logan Wilson “hold” along with about 10 other moments that could have swung the game etched in our brains forever (why is Eli Apple one on one with Cooper Kupp? The Rams D-line is selling out in pass rush the whole fourth quarter. Do you think maybe they were vulnerable to a screen?), but it’s hard to deny the reason they lost was the offensive line.

They were basically fighting with one arm tied behind their back for four straight playoff games.  the Super Bowl could have or maybe should have gone different but a lot had to go right to accomplish what they managed with the hand they were dealt.

Last year the defense wasn’t good enough, the offensive playmakers were inconsistent, and the offensive line was bad. The natural move was to fix the offensive line above all else and worry about the rest later. The weapons would grow together and if the offense got right, it would buy them enough time to try to salvage the defense later. That’s what I would have done. Instead they chose to try to thread the needle in one offseason.  Now that we’ve seen the season play out, hats off to them. They were right. Any playoff run would have been considered a success but it darn near worked to the fullest extent possible.  If one of the young guards would have panned out or Riley Reiff had not have gone down, we might all be dreaming of a dynasty instead of thinking of what might have been.

So Where do they go from here? The post Super Bowl analysis has ranged from confidence from the analytics wizards that the regression monsters will come to knock the Bengals back down where they belong to optimism for the  bright future Bengals. There’s some truth to both sides of the coin, but each perspective also seems to be missing the target  to some extent. Let’s sort through it. 

Defensive performance year to year isn’t sticky.

 The Burrow to Chase deep ball success rate has to regress. 

This team can’t possibly replicate their success next year. 

Ok, but are we ignoring the possibility for positive regression? The defense was up and down this year. It’s not Iike they trotted out the ‘85 Bears and we can’t possibly expect that level of execution. Maybe Hendrickson’s sack numbers come down a little, but what if the Hubbard/Ossai/Sample/Kareem/potential free agent or draft pick come back healthier and more experienced and have an uptick in production? Linebacker depth got decimated last year. What if the young guys continue to blossom and are able to stay fresher with more support? Maybe Awuzie takes a step back from a career year but what if they upgrade at CB2 and keep everything else in tact? Assuming they work something out with Bates, they bring back the same core of players mostly in their primes or ascending with basically the same coaching staff that is also potentially ascending. The defense might be worse but the odds aren’t long that they might be better.

On offense deep ball efficiency should come down… if all variables are the same. Again, we’re talking about ascending talents here. Year 2 Chase with a full offseason in the system being able to work with his quarterback should be better than rookie Chase who had limited access to a rehabbing Burrow and hadn’t played a competitive football game in more than a year and a half.

Burrow has continually showed improvement when facing opponents for the second time. Last year he had nine games under his belt with the uncertainty of a reconstructed knee to worry about. Now he has seen the league for 29 games. 

Red zone efficiency was bad. Third down efficiency was bad. There’s a lot that goes into those metrics that has nothing to do with variance, but the point is if you’re penciling in regression for this offense, you’re ignoring some of the dynamic variables in the equation. Abnormally high go ball efficiency was the engine that drove the offense this year.  Yes they can’t count on that every year, but what if they don’t have to? 

Which brings us to the elephant in the room that has tentacles in all of this. Burrow has proven his ability to read and react is what makes him special. Now give him one more second. Jamar Chase is a threat everywhere on the field whether he gets separation or not. Now give him one more second. Give Joe Mixon .5 yard before he sees contact instead of -.5 yards. Analytics can calculate the probability of this team to regress, but Duke Tobin can change the equation by allocating resources to the offensive line. 

 Others contend 2021 success is all about Burrow. 

They didn’t have a quarterback. Now they lucked into a great one. The front office hasn’t changed their approach. It’s the same old Bengals.

First of all, put down those Joe Burrow’s rose colored glasses. He is the main pillar they are building around. His personality permeates through the building.  I routinely pinch myself at the reality of an offense that can gain less than five yards on first down and I DON’T have to assume a punt is coming soon.  He has been great.. at times. you could even call him streaky.  I fully expect him to improve and there are certainly factors bogging down his success that aren’t his fault. But let’s not pretend that he’s been an unstoppable force that’s solely responsible for this rebuild. The defense is contributing. The coaching staff is contributing. And, maybe most of all, the front office has been a major catalyst in the steady improvement over the last two years right on through the breakthrough in week 17 and the playoff run. 

On the other hand, some are willing to give a nod to recent front office moves,  but they can’t resist trotting out some of the same tired  narratives at the same time.

This franchise is cheap and hasn’t historically cared about winning.  Look at them though they’re loosening up those purse strings in free agency and it’s paying off. 

Mike Brown certainly doesn’t take the Mark Cuban approach to running a franchise but they don’t rank all that poorly in total salary year to year. Their normal neglect to spend this time of year isn’t cheapness. This is a draft and develop team. They aren’t spending in free agency now because they are turning over a new leaf. They had a string of bad drafts and the money they normally use to sign extensions is available to use in free agency to plug voids in the roster left by the John Ross’, the Cedric Ogbuehi’s, and the Billy Price’s of the world. 

Bengals Recent Draft Woes:

People point to guaranteed money and cash spend. The team’s strategy at managing the salary cap is a different story than their willingness to sign contracts that can help the team win.   Structuring contracts with bonuses to spread the cap hit can help short term but it causes less flexibility in the long run when they don’t know what they need.  

And oh by the way, this is the correct strategy for this market! Teams pay a premium in free agency. Cincinnati pays a premium on top of that. Relying on free agency dollars to build their roster puts them at a disadvantage. Teams consistently push chips onto the table to try to load up for a big push and then when they eventually have to face the cap music they get dragged for it. The Bengals steadfastly avoid backing themselves into a corner and they still get bashed. 

Part of the reason why i’m so disappointed with the Super Bowl result is less that the Bengals lost than that the Rams won. I still believe the Bengals team building approach is superior and now pundits have ammunition that stars and scrubs works. All in works better than all around. 

That game could have gone either way. The Bengals lost and they have resources to reload. If the Rams lost, they would have entered into crisis mode.

Some will look for big swings from the Bengals this offseason. I’m  looking for Tobin to work his magic. Spend the right amount. Add depth in the draft.  Don’t thread the needle this time around. Duke has the hammer. Smash the need. Don’t mortgage the future. But don’t dawdle tinkering with pass rush or CB2 week 1 of free agency. 

It’s simple, if they can’t block better, this is irreplicable. 

The Super Bowl loss hurts, but maybe in 2022 we’ll learn that all in might give you a chance, but draft and develop gives you two chances (or more).