2023 NFL Draft Part 2: Quarterback Takes

 Here are my thoughts on the QB prospects that i watched:

(Rated on a scale from 1.0 to 8.0 with 1 being a no brainer number 1 overall pick and 8 being an undrafted free agent)

Elite Franchise Starters:

…Sorry Panthers, Texans, Colts, Falcons, Lions, and Raiders. This bucket is empty for 2023. Better luck next year.

Day 1 Starters:

C.J. Stroud Ohio State RSO Height: 6'3" Weight: 218

Rating: 1.25

Mobile with a good arm. Good to great but short of exceptional in almost everything except maybe pocket awareness.  Accuracy, processing, arm strength: he’s solid and has hot streaks where he’s even better than that. Occasionally gets caught not feeling the blitz quick enough. Is this what Daniel Jones would have looked like in an elite college program?.. That comment isn’t as disrespectful as you think. Not coming from me at least. I liked Jones coming out. Admittedly, taking him at 6 overall was a massive gamble, but i never understood the people that had him outside of the top 100. He was a fringe first round pick with starter potential. If you have a need and you like the guy, draft him wherever it takes. 

Stroud grades out higher than Jones for sure, but a sliver of me wonders if we’re being tricked by the talent advantages at OSU. 

Stroud’s performance against Georgia in the college playoffs seems to indicate he belongs as a top tier prospect. If he can leverage that performance to the standard of how well he plays, watch out. I think he’ll be good but his lack of elite skills in any one trait has me thinking his CEILING might be Dak Prescott-esque to where he eventually cracks the top ten on NFL QB ratings lists but also has stretches where people wonder how good is he really?

Bryce Young Alabama JR Height: 6'0" Weight: 194  Rating: 1.4

Elusive but not dangerous with the ball in his hands. If you’re not tired already of people wondering whether his slight frame will hurt his NFL career, you will be by next week.  Is this what short, skinny Joe Burrow would look like?..with less consistent accuracy.. and processing. Ok fine, so Burrow isn’t a great comp. But what popped Burrow into my mind watching him  was Young’s pocket movement. The accuracy is there.. sometimes. Then he’ll go through stretches where receivers are making adjustments on the ball or he tries to go deep and the precision just isn’t there. The processing is fine, but not elite. But the way he slithers around the pocket and almost always knows when and where to move without dropping his eyes.. THAT’s his superpower. I’d even put him ahead of Burrow in that category.  Burrow is a better rusher than Young though. People like to bring up Kyler Murray because Young is small and the agility is there, but Young doesn’t appear to have that extra gear as a runner.  He looks like he’s jogging when he gets downfield. Maybe it’s just deceiving because he’s smooth, but i think he lacks high end speed. You can see it when defenders pursue him out of the pocket. He’ll try to juke and if the defender doesn’t fall for the fake and just crashes in for the tackle Young doesn’t quite have the burst to get away.  Watch, he won’t run a 40 before the draft (I actually wrote that statement three months ago. Guess what, he didn’t run).

So what is Young as a pro prospect? He’s entering the league at a time when the memory of Drew Brees is fading, Kyler Murray is continuing to rack up injuries annually and Russel Wilson and Baker Mayfield have fallen from the ranks of top QB’s. Pundits are starting to resurrect the old barriers that used to limit opportunities for small QB’s as long term starters.  Fortunately for him the supply on QB’s is still low and by my count 10 to 12 teams are thirsty for young franchise talent (tack on another 10 teams to that if you’re really being honest). Add it all up, Young appears to be a talented player with high end character. I don’t think he’s a slam dunk to go high, but he’ll likely go top 5. In a stronger class i’d say he’d fall down somewhere closer to the middle of the first round. Comparing him directly to Stroud you might think the electric pocket  presence would give him the edge, but my concerns about his athleticism and size knock him down a notch and Stroud gets the nod as the safer bet. Young has a slightly higher ceiling but the chances that he achieves peak performance are lower.

Developmental Starter:

Anthony Richardson Florida RSO Height: 6'3" Weight: 236 Rating 1.5

Moves well inside and outside the pocket. Agile  enough to evade and fast enough to escape. Uses greasy fast speed to break long runs regularly.

Mediocre processing. Sporadic accuracy. Hits at all levels, but misses badly too. He isn’t ready.  Like i said above, if you believe in a quarterback take him wherever you think you need to to get him. Think Richardson will go top 5? Fine, go get him, but patience is the key. Do something different than every other team that drafts a QB high. Start him in his rookie year.. but only enough for him to get a taste to know what he doesn’t know. Let him learn the league. Learn defensive schemes. Figure out his life. 

Give in to the hype and the pressure to go all in right away and i don’t think you’re maxing out his potential. Richardson is the X factor in this class. Someone will drool over his athletic traits and snatch him up. 

Backup Fodder:

Stetson Bennett Georgia RSR Height: 5'11" Weight: 190  Rating 3.4

The fourth annual Tyler Huntley Memorial award goes to.. Stetson Bennett?? It seems weird to give an award for being the most underrated QB prospect of the year to a guy that just won back to back national titles, but here we are. I really didn’t expect to like this guy going into this and in a lot of ways i still don’t.. usually i’m smitten with the winner of the THMA. It typically goes to a player that i want on my team that i think has an outside chance have a moment in the league. Bennett doesn’t cross those thresholds for me the way others have in the past like Bailey Zappe or the original man himself, Mr. Huntley.  

Is it because Bennett is following in the footsteps of Jake Fromm and we expect the same not-really-pro-caliber outlook? Is it the sloppy recent public intoxication arrest? Maybe it is just because his name is Stetson Bennett and i can only picture him cruising around late at night with his bros Hunter and Truman making cringey mischief (Actually..not too far off. See TMZ).  

No, Bennett doesn’t really profile as a likable prospect that i can get behind and i don’t really think he has high end potential, but watching him play there are pro caliber traits. He doesn’t seem to be getting the time of day from draft analysts, but is he really that different than Mac Jones? Low ceiling, 16-20 tier starter at best but probably a solid backup. Cerebral, good instincts. Doesn’t have a cannon for an arm. Isn’t going to throw with laser precision. But he’ll move around a little bit and make a good smart play with the ball. Jones and Kenny Picket got first round nods and chances to start. I wouldn’t advise a team to go that direction with Bennett but i like the idea of him coming in for a few weeks when your starter goes down and playing well enough to not sink your season. This is way rich compared to other rankings I’ve seen. Sorry, i don’t like it either, but he’s just better than the rest of the class.

Will Levis Kentucky RSr Height: 6'3" Weight: 232 Rating 3.5

Rugged muscle bound dude with a cannon  arm. Intangibles supposedly  off the charts.  I’ve heard him knocked for his muscularity and inability to make finesse throws in a Tim Tebow sort of way.  He looked fine on short to intermediate throws to me. He’s not going to throw it through a key hole but he does alright and even feathers a ball over coverage every once in a while. Although, if he’s going to throw a deep ball the dude is going to have to be WIDE open. If he has any long range accuracy i didn’t see evidence of it in the games i watched.  Granted, Kentucky was pretty run heavy and focused more on short range passing. His pocket awareness is mediocre at best. He’ll slide around to avoid pressure occasionally, but i also saw him get earholed NOT from the blind side a couple times where he just didn’t read or feel the pressure and an edge guy lit him up. I don’t think his processing is quite where it needs to be either. Some guys just have that sixth sense where they know when and where to let it rip (and more importantly when not to pull the trigger).  Levis is not one of those guys.  He’s getting lumped into a big four in this class but i don’t think a team should sign up for him as plan A.  Need a backup that might get an impromptu chance to start and surprise us?.. I think he’s a good option. Anything more aspirational than that and i’m worried.  

Jaren Hall BYU JR Height: 6'1" Weight: 209 Rating 4.3

THMA honorable mention. Jaren Hall was robbed! The media is outraged! Hall profiles closer to what usually sucks me in as an underrated QB prospect that i’m rooting for with a decent chance to surprise people.

He’s tall enough.  His arm is ok. His instincts are ok. Mobility seems to be trending up as a prerequisite to excel at the position and he has that.. Not the elite game breaking variety, but he can keep a defense honest, keep plays alive, and pick up some first downs. What sets him apart from the athletic quarterbacks ranked lower is his potential with the more typical IT traits for QB prospects. Processing, pocket awareness, accuracy.. Hall doesn’t wow on any of those fronts but he flashes. There are shreds of ability there that i think can develop where other guys i don’t see much hope.

Probably only a Backup:

Hendon Hooker Tennessee RSR Height: 6'4" Weight: 218 Rating: 4.9

Quick, nice running skills. Navigates through traffic and upfield for 5 to 7 yards with ease. Scattershot accuracy. Only accurate within 15 yards and loses way too much ability to locate the ball when someone’s in his face. Torn ACL late in the year. Likes to sit in the pocket and stay calm.. but gets rocked now and then because of it. He has backup potential on his running ability alone.  Not hopeless as a passer but has to find some accuracy somewhere.  Really simple offense with a lot of slants and crossers. Decision making is ok but i’m not confident he’ll make the the hard throws. He seems to have the leadership skills and the demeanor you want, but tragic flaws facing blitz pressure and throwing downfield just can’t be ignored.

Jake Haener Fresno State RSR Height: 6'0" Weight: 195  Rating 5.3

Smart and accurate on short to intermediate throws. Not a gifted runner, but not a statue. Limited deep ball.

Clayton Tune Houston SR Height: 6'3" Weight: 220 Rating 5.6

Looks like a tank in the pocket. Moves like one too, but if he gets rolling into the second level he’s a headache for defenders breaking tackles and flashing surprising speed. It’s like driving as Bowser in Mario Kart. No acceleration, but if he gets up to speed watch out.  Not a standout thrower on any level, but flashes enough to take on as a development project.

Tanner McKee Stanford JR Height: 6'6" Weight: 226 Rating 5.8

6’6” and not a stiff. There should be room for him on someone’s roster. Not ready to be a qb2 yet. Makes quick decisions. Delivers the ball consistently but often a foot or so underthrown creating more contested ball situations than need be.  Offense doesn’t ask a lot. A lot of quick game in their offense so it’s difficult to tell what you really have but he’s  worth a roster stash.

Practice Squad All-Stars:

Max Duggan TCU SR Height: 6'2" Weight: 210 Rating 6.4

Has enough running ability to intrigue some ambitious GM.  YOLO magician throwing the ball downfield.. but more like the sad kind that does kids’ parties, not the David Copperfield T.V. special kind. Takes too many risks and gets burned in college.  I can only imagine what will happen against pro DB’s if he doesn’t reign it in.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson UCLA RSR Height: 6'1" Weight: 205 Rating 6.9

Good command.  Decent runner. Needs to develop as a passer. Pummels short to intermediate routs. Not much of a downfield threat.

Adrian Martinez Kansas State SR Height: 6'3" Weight: 225 Rating 7.8

Has an it factor. Good frame. Nice urgency. Almost no downfield throwing abilities.  It feels like i said that ten times up above. Apologies to the Martinez family..he makes those other guys look like  Justin Herbert throwing it long.

XFL or Bust:

Malik CunninghamLouisville RSR Height: 6'1" Weight: 200 Rating 8+

Position change? Classic college QB. Good runner. Slings the ball, but not really in a good way. 

Tanner Morgan Minnesota RSR Height: 6'2" Weight: 216 Rating 8+

Looks a little bit like Matt Ryan and even wears number 2. Plays a little bit like him too but more like the late career version.  Lots of RPO’s but a lot more R’s than P and when he keeps it it’s a short to intermediate slant which he throws just okay. Not much threat to run or throw deep or escape pressure. 

Aidan O'Connell Purdue RSR Height: 6'3" Weight: 210 Rating 8+

Lumbering pocket passer. Sitting duck. Makes some throws but doesn’t have nearly enough pocket mobility or processing power to make up for his lack of athleticism. 

2023 NFLDraft Part 1: Play the Fields

Draft season baby! As always the center of gravity for unlocking how April will unfold revolves around the quarterbacks.  Lovie Smith  even gave us all a belated Christmas present  winning on his way out the door in Houston to give this year’s QB debate an extra winkle. 

With the Bears in the driver seat and a developing QB already in the fold, they suddenly had a grab bag of options available on which direction to steer the franchise and the masses weren’t shy about weighing in on the debate.

Stay put and draft a quarterback anyway?  

Draft two and try to get one! It has some credence but  managing two young QBs is a high wire act NFL franchises aren’t ready to stomach yet. Not at number one overall anyway. The Eagles pulled it off, but that was with seeds of doubt already planted on Carson Wentz and a much lower second round investment in Jalen Hurts.

Stay put and pick the best non quarterback? The Bears roster looks like a blanket that someone decided to use for target practice with a machine gun.  Leaving trade assets on the table never seemed like a viable option as multiple teams lined up for the chance to trade up to the top slot. If an elite WR or OT were available, i think they might have paused a little longer, but Calvin Johnson and Walter Jones are not available on their big board. 

That likely left the Bears with two main options:  trade Justin Fields or trade down. 

The initial assumption was that Chicago would move the pick, snag an elite defender in the top ten and be done with it, but there was plenty of chatter on the other side of the fence: 

Fields hasn’t exactly lit it up as a passer. If the Bears love one of the QB’s in this class, they’d be better off dealing Fields and extending their window with a rookie contract at QB.  

Some people even took the stance the Bears should just explore both options and take the best offer.

The debate was heating up, but just when it was starting to sizzle, the Bears made their move. Chicago sent the number one pick to Carolina for:

-#9 overall

-A late 2 

-a first next year

-a second in 2025

-and D.J. Moore

How’d they do?

Some imagine scenarios where Chicago could’ve come out of this richer than they are now with potential suitors at 2 (Houston), 4 (Indianapolis), 6 (Detroit), 7 (Las Vegas), and 8 (Atlanta), but it’s hard to say if any of the logical trade partners would’ve actually played ball. Maybe only one of those teams was legitimately interested. 

Could they have waited longer and driven up the price? Maybe. But the real fault line here was free agency. The value could have gone up if free agency didn’t go as planned for a certain team. Unfortunately the flip side is also true and teams might have filled needs and chilled the market.

The Bears opted to lock in at the current price. They still have a chance to snag a great young player early. They’ve added three top 70 picks over the next three years, and if the Panthers are starting a rookie, next year’s 1 might prove to be more valuable than you think . On top of all that, they now have an anchor for their receiving corps. D.J. Moore isn’t an elite WR1 but he can at least pretend to be one while whatever young weapon they find acclimates to the league. Trading what became pick 32 for Chase Claypool at the trade deadline was a massive blunder, but if he’s their WR3 all of a sudden maybe they’re light years ahead of what they rolled out last year. 

Add it all up and i think the Bears got a fair deal. Thoughts of pulling off some gambit where they traded down to 2 and then traded down again to get more capital sound great but probably aren’t as realistic as they feel. 

The real question is whether Chicago could have secured a higher bounty by trading Fields?  Even if they could have should they have gone for it?  

The offer would have to have been pretty juicy for me to move off Fields at this point. He has seasoned for two years. We know he is an electric runner. Detractors are acting like he has been a zero as a passer, but look closely.  There are enough flashes to remain faithful.  Focus early in games when the script is best and the game plan is still fresh. Wow throws are there. Then as  games progressed the infrastructure didn’t hold up. The o-line, the receivers, the defense, none of it was good enough. The pressure on Fields mounted. He pressed and made mistakes.  

Blame him some. He absolutely still needs to improve. But roll out all of the poor passing statistics that you want … he’s the 33rd rated passer in this advanced metric or that. Ok, but who had a worse supporting cast? Texans? Patriots? Colts? Titans? Cardinals? Rams post Kupp injury? The Bears win that contest pretty easily. No, Fields wasn’t able to elevate everything around him, but that would have been something like getting the Titanic to float. 

Support him and he’ll be good. Maybe great. Beyond that it the decision boiled down to an evaluation of the 2023 quarterback class. C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson, and Will Levis have been touted as the big four and there’s no consensus favorite as the top guy.  I would take Fields over all of them and it’s not close. He still has the highest ceiling and might also have the lowest floor. There are no sure fire franchise QB’s in this draft class. I say let it ride Chicago. Play the Fields.

Part 2, i’ll break the main prospects in the 2023 QB class.

A Roller Coaster Season

 Remember Halloween?

The year started and we were all excited for Joe Burrow to finally have a normal preseason that didn’t involve zoom meetings or rehab.  The team could come out of the gate strong, mow through the front half of the schedule and have a cushion for the difficult slate of Nov. and Dec. games. 

That’s what i thought anyway.

Burrow didn’t even make it to the first day of practice before an emergency appendectomy on the eve of training camp knocked him out for multiple weeks of team activities and all three preseason games. The rebuilt offensive line (also sidelined for much of the preseason) flopped coming out of the gate and the team dropped back to back losses to bad opposing QB’s to start the year. 

They bounced back to get back to .500 only to drop another in-division game to Baltimore. They handled lesser competition to get to 4 wins.  And then Halloween hit. 

2022 felt like the year where fun went to die.  Scoring was down. Parity was running amuck. And a week after the Bengals finally started flashing some of that tier 1 NFL contender potential, the roof caved in with them losing Chase and Awuzie to significant injuries and the team looking abysmal in the Cleveland prime time performance highlighted by a disheveled Cincy offense transforming the previously inept Browns D  into a fierce unit. 

The Chase injury had the most gravitational pull as analysts tried to break down Cincy’s brutal performance on that Monday night.  That did explain some of the choppiness to the offense, but the rudder of the team for the first 2 months of the season had been second half defense. The more crushing blow was the in game injury to Awuzie.

When D.J. Reader went down, the defense weakened some, but the dam held and they were still able to elevate to a stout level of play in spurts. The run defense was understandably a shell of its former self, but having a top ten corner allowed for Laboratory Lou Anarumo to compensate. Logan Wilson, Mike Hilton, Von Bell, all of the role players took turns. Anarumo could mix and match, stay unpredictable,  and the secondary was capable of holding. Pull Awuzie out of the mix and the cracks would be too wide. The water would come rushing through. Losing Awuzie meant the ceiling for this roster was lowered  to below the level of the conference championship game.

..That’s what i thought anyway. 

Instead the Bengals proceeded to rattle off 10 straight wins as they plowed through the meat of their schedule. They fought. They adapted. Young players stepped up.  Carter, Ossai, Taylor-Britt. Everyone chipped in. Week 16, an o-line starter went down. They forged on and kept winning. Week 18, another O-line starter was lost. They still found a way. Trey Hendrickson broke his wrist. The wild card round claimed the left tackle. And they just kept winning. 

It felt great. But in the end the bandaids didn’t hold. The defense played admirably, but just leaked a little too much. By the fourth quarter the offense was sucking wind . They had a chance to seize the moment but the season ended like it did last year, 23-20 with a backup caliber offensive lineman giving up quick pressure to kill their last drive. Sure, this time the defense had a chance to hold again and give yet another chance to the offense and i crossed my fingers hoping for the best, but in the pit of my stomach i knew it was too much to ask.  It was the same way i felt last year when the Rams were driving for the go ahead score. The Logan Wilson penalty hadn’t happened yet. The Aaron Donald sack wasn’t a thing yet.  But i moved on to the business of consoling my son who was watching painfully but dutifully as the ship began to sink.

“Did you look at what happens?” My wife asked referring to the stream we were watching not quite being in real time. 

 “No,” i replied. “I’ve just seen this before.”

I knew. And right then my inclination for how the next season would go started to form.  

“We’ll be back,” was the mantra from players and Bengals faithful licking the wounds of narrow defeat. 

“Regression! Regression! Regression,” touted the analytics honks. “They’ll be a better team with a worse record.”  The real answer was in between. The growth of this roster would outweigh the regression. They would challenge hard, but all of the breaks they caught in  2021 would catch up to them and they would come up short. 

At least that’s what i thought. 

It kind of came true, but in a strange way it didn’t. The season turned from agonizing to fun to agonizing to fun over and over again.  The injury bug tried to spoil the party, but then it didn’t, but then it did. Controversial injuries to opposing players in prime time in Cincinnati sparked national headlines twice. It was a winding road, but the team stuck together and continued to break through barriers they’ve never been through before:  Back to back division titles. Playoff victories in consecutive years. Curve balls kept coming, but they kept the blinders on and delivered. I was proud of their resilience. 

Sure, the AFC championship game was a painful loss but don’t forget to enjoy what they accomplished.  Being the talk of the league is fun. Not combing the standings to figure out the updated draft order every week from November to January is fun.  We can enjoy it for what it is now and buckle up for next year. 

As pundits everywhere have been quick to point out, the Bengals missed an opportunity this year and now it gets harder. Bills are coming due and ripples from their success are about to assault one of their biggest and maybe most underrated assets: Continuity.  

Other than the offensive line, the starting units have basically been together two or three years. The coaching staff has been together for five.  Unfortunately, that is about to change. Basically the whole secondary could be different to start next season depending on how Awuzie’s injury recovery goes. Anarumo has a second interview with the Cardinals (c’mon Mike Brown, dust off that Assistant Head Coach title and give that man a raise!  Give him an excuse to stick around one more year to finish some unfinished business!). Brian Callahan has a second interview with the Colts and the best in-house candidate to step up should there be an offensive coordinator void to fill, Dan Pitcher, is interviewing for Tampa’s OC position. Some of these guys might be back. But all of them won’t, and overcoming  losing them will be too big of a hill to climb to get to the top of the mountain next year where we all want them to be.

.. At least that’s how i used to think.

But with this team, now i can’t be sure.

2022 Draft Class Debrief… FINALLY

Sorry everyone. I’m a little delinquent here, but i wanted to get my takes on the draft class on record before.. well, before next year anyway.

We’ve had about half a season to get our first look at the 2022 Bengals draft class in regular season action.  Let’s refresh a little bit on how the draft played out and how the new faces fit into the roster.

My impulse reaction to the Bengals draft class was.. hmm. Maybe i even gave it a shoulder shrug.  After staring at it a while, i came to terms with it..i might have even warmed up to it.

Going into the draft my feeling was okay maybe CB in round 1 if the value is right but let’s hammer home trench depth, grab a TE later and maybe even address special teams (returner, punter) or WR depth. In the end they stayed more well rounded. Splitting between DB’s and lineman, they sprinkled in a little depth at most of the need positions, ignored offense except for one day 3 pick, and  raised some eyebrows by selecting two players designated as safeties.

The biggest wake up call for me was  the reality of drafting in the 31 slot. Each time they picked my reaction wasn’t disappointment but  it was definitely less than a fist pump (okay maybe there was a celebration dance with the Dax Hill pick, but that was at least partly the thrill of hitting their pick in my mock draft in addition to liking the player).  Even factoring  in the general lack of spice in the class, i couldn’t shake the feeling with each pick that the Bengals were one step behind.. One round even. But was it their fault or just the pick 31 effect? Dissecting it, you almost have to bump everything down a tier when comparing what they did to what they have been able to accomplish in the past.  Think of Dax Hill not in the vein of JaMar Chase as much as in the context of Tee Higgins and Jackson Carman. Think of Cam Taylor-Brit  comparatively to Logan Wilson and Joseph Ossai. Zach Carter is more like Akeem Davis-Gaither and Cam Sample. Cordell Volson  links closer to Khalid Kareem and Tyler Shelvin. Once i adjusted my perspective, the whole group started to shine a little nicer.

The other vibe that kept weighing down my general optimism was  the seemingly unusual amount of narrow misses. Sometimes it was a player i loved  not quite slipping far enough. Sometimes it was an interesting match of need and value and i was just curious to see what would happen once Cincy was on the clock and one player or another was still on the board. But now, we don’t know. We might never know, and all we can do is wonder, what might have been. Here are my thoughts on each round.  Who they did get, who they didn’t get, and what it all means. 

Oh What Might Have Been Rd 1: 

i loved watching Jermaine Johnson (DE Florida State). I think he’s the second best pass rusher in the class.  When he fell into the 20’s i started thinking, “man pass rush isn’t on their top two or three needs list, but maybe they should think about trading up to get him. The value is just too good.”  In the end, he made it all the way to pick 26 before the Jets moved up from 35 to stop the slide and my fantasy ended. I kept expecting some news to come out as to why Johnson fell, but as of now it sounds like the NFL just doesn’t like him as much as I do.

Just prior to the Johnson pick, the Ravens took Tyler Linderbaum (center, Iowa) at 25. Knocked by some for his short arms, Linderbaum was beloved by more analysts as a tough, rock solid center prospect. If the Bengals snagged Linderbaum and kicked Karas over to guard (where some ranked Karras as a top 10 player at the position last year) maybe we wouldn’t have  bene sitting there in September sweating thinking about banking on a day thee rookie to start at LG or waiting for Jackson Carman to wake up.  At the least i wanted to see if they would do it. 

DT Devonte Wyatt (Georgia) coming off the board at pick 28 was more of a “phew” moment. I don’t think the guy flashed enough last year to justify a first round pick. He was just kind of there. I would  have been disappointed with him as the pick.

The Patriots took small school guard Cole Strange at 29. Strangely, this might turn into the most painful what might have been pick of this bunch if he does what small school guards picked by Bill Bellichick normally do. 

But for now we’ll just assume it’s someone the Bengals never would have taken at 31 and move on to the Chiefs taking George Karlaftis at 30.  I think he was going to be their pick and if the predictably overly optimistic training camp news can be believed they might have narrowly missed out on a chance to supercharge their pass rush for the next five years or so. Play a sad song for just a moment and think of the sweet disaster Laboratory Lou is cooking up in some alternate reality somewhere.

… …

Okay! Karlaftis could have crushed it but now it’s time to talk up our main man Dax a little bit. 

Round 1 Pick 31: Dax Hill S Michigan

There was some buzz questioning the value of a safety and even speculation on this pick being a straight up replacement for Jessie Bates or Vonn Bell with both players entering contract years. Yes, he provides some insurance for departures next year, but that’s more of a bonus. Bates is around for now and the real vision is short term: a supercharged version of what they wanted Ricardo Allen to be last year. Instead of a shiny hammer, Labby Lou gets a sub 4.4 gazelle that can hit and cover. They’ll move him around the formation and disguise what they’re doing. Michigan had him lining up 1:1 with receivers a little too much. I don’t think he’s going to turn into a primary slot defender, but he does offer some relief against some of Mike Hilton’s shortcomings. Hilton isn’t really the guy you want shadowing Odell Beckham on crossing routes in the Super Bowl. But can he line up against him and then hand him off to Hill as he streaks across the field?That makes a little more sense.

… That of course was what i said heading into the year. The execution of their new chess piece hasn’t gone quite as i envisioned it. Hill hasn’t seen the field much as Anarumo has opted to lean heavily on 2 LB, 4 lineman fronts with Mike Hilton as the lone extra DB.  Hill has only seen a few defensive snaps here and there and special teams duty.  When he finally got in it was emergency fill-in time as a CB in the blowout loss to the Browns. The following week he separated his shoulder. 

Either way, the reality is one or both of the current starting safeties  probably aren’t coming back next year. Based on what Hill flashed in the preseason, there’s a chance the Bengals secondary might not skip a beat.

Oh What Might Have Been Rd 2:

Predictably,  round 2 started with several of the names bandied about as potential pick 31 candidates flying off the board quick (DT Logan Hall, CB Kyler Gordon, CB Roger McCreary) but it’s hard to get too upset about them. The Bengals had their chance to get them and went an alternate route. CB Alontae Taylor gets an honorable mention because i was hoping he’d last until 63, but coming off the board at pick 49 to the Saints, he wasn’t really in range.  The biggest round 2 groaner was pick 55 when the Cardinals snagged top TE prospect Trey McBride. I’m not as wild about McBride as some, but I think he could have been a nice compromise at the position.  He doesn’t have Hurst’s athleticism or Sample’s blocking ability but he is somewhere in the middle with both skill sets. Assuming Hurst won’t stick around long term and Sample just isn’t going to blossom as a weapon it wouldn’t have been a bad idea to get a prospect in this year to get that rookie year out of the way. But McBride is now destined to shrivel up in the desert where TE’s tend to rot. 

Round 2 pick 60: Cam Taylor-Britt CB Nebraska

The Bengals gave up a sixth to move up from 63 to 60  to secure some CB2 depth. McCreary, Gordon, Andrew Booth, and Taylor all would have filled that void on the roster but they were long gone. Looking at the CB names that went in round 3, Taylor Britt was the last guy I figured was capable of contributing as an outside corner in year one with long term starter potential.  Considering the Bengals were willing to stray from their tendency to sit tight and shun giving up resources in trades, i think they agreed with me.

It was Cam Taylor-Britt or bust and the Bengals moved up to grab him. Taylor-Britt doesn’t flash the ability to lock down a side of the field or anything but he’s solid. His closing speed is what really flashed to me. When he sees a target he zeros in and hits hard. Stepping in as CB2 as a rookie will be tough, but now that he’s  off IR, he should have a chance to get his feet wet and come out of the gates strong next year.

Oh What Might Have Been Rd 3:

Behemoth RT Abraham Lucas was the biggest heart breaker for me, but he went early in round 3 long before Cincy could even consider him to upgrade their OT3 slot (still their top need in my mind, but the Bengals don’t seem to think so).

NT Travis Jones (UConn) has versatility to backup Reader and maybe play next to him too. 

LB Nakobe Dean (Georgia) has the instincts and athleticism to rush, rally to the ball, and cover. Next to Logan Wilson the Bengals defense would have leveled up in terms of versatility and unpredictably.

 

I could picture UCLA receiving TE Greg Dulcich as a microwave weapon trucking down the field upping the ante on the physicality of the Bengals passing attack. 

DE/DT DeMarvin Leal (Texas A&M) had plenty of critics in the draft community, but I thought he was way more effective than most are giving credit and a more juiced up version of the guy they ended up taking. I was dying to know if the Bengals liked him, but the Steelers (of all teams!!!) snatched him up first.

Then there were some guards that went that i thought might be on their radar and I really wanted to see if they might invest there a little earlier than they did. Dylan Parham went to Vegas and the UCLA OT projected to kick inside, Sean Rhyan (not my favorite, but often linked to Bengals interest), both would have been interesting options if they had lasted. 

Round 3 pick 95: Zach Carter, DT Florida

Instead we get Carter. I don’t hate the pick. It just seems like more of a project than i was hoping for. Carter fights to the ball and occasionally flashes inside pass rush ability. I just worry he’ll struggle with bigger stronger bodies and right now they don’t have much depth in the pipeline to play 3tech DT behind B.J. Hill.

Oh What Might Have Been Rd 4:

If Abe Lucas is a behemoth, Daniel Faalele is a planet. We’ll be seeing all 6’8” 380 lbs. of him somewhere on the Ravens line at some point. 

There weren’t  a ton of other names that i was heartbroken about. DT Perrion Winfrey was popular amongst analysts but he wasn’t in the running after the Carter pick. 

The TE’s as a group more or less qualify. They kept trickling off the board with five more taken before Cincy’s next pick making it less and less likely the Bengals would find an option they liked (although speaking of likely, Ravens preaseason darling TE IsaiahLikely did get taken three picks after the Bengals’ 4th rounder.)

Longing for a punter upgrade, i was also disappointed to see the Ravens snatch up the first punter Jordan Stout.

Round 4 pick 136: Cordell Volson G North Dakota State

Finally, an offensive line pick! Part of me wanted the Bengals to take 7 offensive line picks with this draft. After injuries wiped out training camp for Alex Cappa, L’ael Collins, and D’ante Smith,  Isaiah Prince went to IR, and Jackson Carman basically flamed out, my fears about the lack of offensive line depth feel pretty justified. 

 

I’m not sure that Volson’s ceiling is high, but i liked the consistency and versatility he showed with solid college game clips at three of the five OL positions. I’m not wild that he has to start right away but he’s a decent bet to develop into a serviceable starter which is more than you can ask for with most bottom of the fourth round picks.

Oh What Might Have Been Rd 5:

These names might be better served to group in with the round 4 batch as they came off the board with the four subsequent picks to when the Bengals took Volson.

Bailey Zappe (Western Kentucky) could make for a perfect backup quarterback. I wouldn’t advocate specifically for the Bengals to take him unless he lasted to the seventh round or joined as a UDFA, but still. 

Calvin Austin (Memphis) would have been nice developmental WR depth.

Isaiah Likely (Coastal Carolina ) i mentioned already. He has had some pretty intriguing receiver moments as a rookie.

And last but not least. The one that hurt the most.  My favorite OL prospect who excelled at both center and left tackle at Wake Forest, Zach Tom. If the Bengals had taken him, i might have done a backflip.

Later in the round the one guy that pops out to me is the giant CB from UTSA, Tariq Woolen. If he develops the 6’4” former WR could be a monster.

Round 5 pick 166: Tycen Anderson S Toledo

The Bengals are stockpiling fast guys that can tackle.  We’ll see if they can squeeze starting caliber snaps out of him within the next couple years but at the least Darrin Simmons has a nice special teams ball of clay to work with.

Oh What Might Have Been Rd 6, 7: 

Nothing in this range made me too sad. 

Michigan’s Andrew Steuber or Penn St.’s Rasheed Walker would have made for decent flyers to add OL depth.  

Kansas St. QB Skylar Thompson is another one of my favorite deep sleeper quarterbacks that might have been able to hang around the practice squad and eventually unseat Brandon Allen as the QB2.

Round 7 pick 252: Jeffrey Gunter DE Coastal Carolina

WOoo, i don’t know if he’ll develop into a starter, but he sure does look the part.  He’s long and lean with room to stack on muscle.  He flashed enough in college games that there’s at least some hope of having found a diamond in the rough.  It seems like a pretty solid find for the 11th to last pick in the draft.   

Alright that’s it. Sorry it took so long. Time to start working on the 2023 class!

2022 Week 1 and Beyond

 Well, week one went off the rails pretty quick. Still, the end result wasn’t too far from what i predicted:

- Sloppy slow start

-The defense held

-In the end Joe Burrow figured out how to do enough to win.. Only, Clark Harris’s old man muscles gave out and the Bengals kicking game couldn’t convert 

(funny question from my wife who doesn’t watch or care anything about football after i mentioned the Bengals lost the game partly because they screwed up two kicks after the long snapper got hurt: “Why didn’t the guy who snaps the ball on every other play just do it?” .. .. good question. Maybe the center would be a better emergency long snapper than the third string tight end?  Punt coverage, okay it makes sense that you don’t want a lineman out there for that but the snaps for kicks seem similar enough to shotgun snaps. Just sayin.) 

No time to weep too much. Week 2 is right around the corner. The Bengals head to Dallas this weekend for a showdown with.. Cooper Rush?  .. Strangely, the Dak Prescott injury comes as both a relief and a disappointment. Surely it helps the Bengals chances of coming home with a road win, but what would we learn from that? It kind of robs us of the chance to get this week 1 bad taste out of our mouths for at least another week or two. Plus, there’s almost more to lose than to win going into it.  I’m sure the team doesn’t quite see it that way. A win is a win and they just have to go in there and take care of business, but it does seem to put more pressure on them to dominate. They’re heading into a hostile environment against an elite pass rusher and a ball hawking DB with a knack for big plays.. sounds awfully familiar minus the road game aspect of it. Hopefully an early miscue doesn’t waken ghosts from the Steelers game.  

I still have faith though. Joe Ain’t afraid of no ghosts! 

 If they are what we think they are, week 1 is in the past. They got hit in the mouth.  Now they spit blood and come back on a mission.  Bengals 27 Cowboys 

2022 NFL Season Predictions

 The 2022 season is finally here!  The first Sunday always feels like Christmas morning.  After all of the narratives and speculation floated the past seven months, we finally get to unwrap the gifts and see what's inside... Only there will be a lot more coal in these packages than kids normally find in December.  Some fan bases will even get treated to a can of snakes. But instead of a spring popping out it feels more like real snake jumping out to terrorize your Sunday afternoon.  There's nothing worse than an ugly week 1 injury or your team laying an egg to ruin the Christmas spirit.  But!.. I hate to jinx it, but i think we'll be alright Bengals fans.  The Steelers defense has been hitting for weeks and playing starters in the preseason.  I suspect they'll have the new O-line on their heels for a few quarters, but Laboratory Lou and the boys are strong enough to hold serve until Joe Burrow can figure out how to score enough points to win.  Bengals win 20-16.   Here's how i see the regular season playing out:  

AFC North:

Cincinnati  11-6
Baltimore  11-6
Pittsburgh  10-7
Cleveland  5-11

Your Cincinnati Bengals remain the Kings of the North!  It has been an interesting offseason.  It feels like they've somehow checked all of the boxes and also not quite done enough.  It might be my paranoia talking, but i would've liked to see them go even harder at offensive line.  I'm terrified we're going to be 2 weeks in before we see the same stinking offensive line that we had to watch in the Super Bowl.  But, fingers crossed, maybe Collins and Cappa got their injuries out of the way in training camp and we'll actually get to see the free agent pickups play together most of the year.  They have to establish some continuity quickly, but the improvement should be night and day.  Everything we know about Burrow SCREAMS that he is on an upward trajectory and he will just keep getting better and better.  Give him more time and the results will be surgical.  

Plenty of analysts have been high on the Bengals, but the regression nerds keep chirping about deep ball efficiency and no one seems willing to commit to them as a top tier contender.  It's annoying, but probably beneficial.  There's a realistic chance Burrow and the boys are about to drop a Peyton Manning-Kurt Warner-sized bomb on the league, and i'm not sure anyone really sees it coming. 

For the record:
- Division games 3-3 : i have the Bengals splitting with all three division opponents. 

- Vs. NFC South 3-1 : They take down Tampa Tom, snag Burrow's first win against Baker Mayfield, and swallow up Atlanta.  I vividly remember Cincy coming out flat in the magical '88 season and losing to the Saints.  Unfortunately, history repeats itself.  

-  Vs. AFC East 3-1 : They take down the Patriots, avenge last year's calamity at N.Y. , and terrorize Tua for three wins.  After the ball drops on New Year's the Bengals drop a nail biter to the Bills on Jan. 2.   

- First Place Showdowns 1-1: The Bengals repeat their playoff performance (minus the nine sacks) to knock off the Titans to get one win, but the Chiefs get their revenge and steal Mahommes-Burrow III.     
- Bonus NFC game 1-0 : The bonus game this year has the Bengals taking on the Cowboys.  I can't remember the Bengals ever playing well against Dallas, but they start the season hot and light up the Boys in week 2. 

The Ravens Rebound.  The Steelers scratch and claw to 10 feisty wins.  The Browns blunder with Brisset and Watson has to shake the rust off.  

Landscape of the Rest of the Leauge:

AFC South
Indianapolis  10-7
Jacksonville  9-8
Tennessee 8-9
Houston 7-10

Matt Ryan to Indy works.  The Jaguars start to have some bite.  Tennessee can't catch a break.  Houston 

is frisky.  

AFC East
Buffalo  11-6
Miami  10-7
New England 8-9
New York Jets  4-13

Buffalo has their moment.  Miami tortures defenses with their speed.  New England doesn't win or lose more than 1 in a row all year.  The Jets are back to the drawing board.  

AFC West
Las Vegas  12-5
L.A. Chargers  11-6
Kansas City  10-7
Denver  6-11

The Raiders weapons stay healthy and Adams, Waller, and Renfro are too much for the league.  The Chargers are electric.  K.C. is a little short on fire power.  Russell Wilson fizzles in the Rockies.  

NFC North
Minnesota  12-5
Green Bay  11-6
Detroit  8-9
Chicago  5-12

NFC MVP Kirk Cousins?  Packers grind out 11 wins, but don't make it look easy.  Dan Campbell rides the Hard Knocks wave from bad to mediocre.  The Bears are stripping it down to the studs. 

NFC South
Tampa Bay  11-6
New Orleans  9-8
Carolina  7-10
Atlanta  5-12

Tampa is banged up but still rolls through the NFC.  The Saints are good, but the Dennis Allen-Jameis Winston coaching-QB tandem can't quite cut it.  Mayfield has some ups, but more downs.   Atlanta is another team playing the long game. 

NFC East
Philadelphia  9-8
Dalls  8-9
N.Y. Giants  8-9
Washington  4-13

Hurts STILL isn't the guy.  Dallas gets beat in the trenches. The Giants surprise themselves.  Wentz throws more picks than TD's and finds his way the bench before Thanksgiving.  

NFC West
L.A. Rams  10-7
San Francisco 10-7
Arizona  9-8
Seattle  6-11

The champs lost their edge but still win the West.  Lance struggles but the 49ers defense does it on their own.  The Cardinals start strong but fade late.. Again.  Seattle stumbles.  

PLAYOFFS??!!:

The Chiefs lose out on the tiebreaker and miss the playoffs and we have to listen to people complain about AFC/NFC playoff seeding for 6 months.  

1. Las Vegas

2. Buffalo

3. Cincinnati

4. Indianapolis

5. Baltimore

6. L.A. Chargers

7. Miami

Buffalo blasts Miami.  Burrow outduels Herbert.  Lamar gets off the playoff schneid to send Indy packing.  Cincy ends the Josh Allen's magical season and the Raiders hold serve against the Ravens.  

I'd love to predict a return trip to the Super Bowl for our Bengals, but i think it's just too hard to pull off.  Some of the breaks they caught last year fall the other direction and Las Vegas takes the AFC crown and heads to Arizona. 

1. Minnesota

2. Tampa Bay

3. L.A. Rams

4. Philadelphia

5. Green Bay

6. San Francisco

7. Arizona

The Cardinals show up to this year and make up for last year's playoff disaster with a stunning upset.  The 49ers keep winning with defense despite shaky quarterback play.  The Packers make short work of the Eagles.  Jimmy GLance can't fool the packers D.  Arizona's magic runs out in Minnesota.  

An NFC North showdown in the conference finals!  Captain Kirk finds a way.  Rodgers falls short again.

SUPER BOWL:  Carr vs. Cousins isn't exactly what the league had in mind heading into the season.  Cousins has proved doubters wrong all year long, but turns into a pumpkin when it matters most.  Raiders win 35-23.

 Enjoy week 1 everybody!