Mocking it Up!

Super Bad Pick

Well, my Colts by 17 pick was quite the prediction, eh? New Orleans took care of business outplaying Indianapolis in all aspects of the game. Brees was a shoe-in for MVP, but I was most impressed with the performance by Saints coach Sean Payton.

Sorry Marvin Lewis, but how does Payton not win coach of the year? Payton’s display on the league’s biggest stage makes me think maybe they should look past the regular season when deciding such accolades. He coached a brilliant game, start to finish. His lone mistake was that ridiculous onside kick call. Analysts will rave on forever about how “gutsy” it was and it is going to drive me crazy. Yes, the play had a huge impact on the game, but it would have had an equally huge impact in the opposite direction if the Saints didn’t get the ball back. They totally caught the Colts off guard and still appeared to only recover the kick because the ball got pinned up against somebody’s leg making it hard for the Colts player to secure the ball. Their game plan was unfolding beautifully and they decided more or less to gamble the entire game on one mad scramble for the football. No matter what they saw on film, the onside kick was a mistake.

It’s a good thing the Saints recovered that ball because it would have been a shame to spoil the masterpiece put together by Payton for the rest of the game. The pace was crucial. If it weren’t for the extended halftime show, the game might have been over by 9:00. The Saints came up with what seemed like dozens of 10 to 15-yard first down plays. Crafting long sustaining drives, they kept momentum and bled the clock. Indy’s biggest weakness was their corners and Payton ran 10-yard outs with those big receivers all day long to exploit it. They kept Peyton Manning off the field, but more importantly they minimized Indy’s experience advantage. The Saints’ players didn’t have a chance to realize what they were doing. Before they could freeze up and blow the game like they tried to do against the Vikings, the game ended.

The aftermath of the game, as expected sparked loads of media discussion about Manning’s status among great quarterbacks. One loss and all of the critics who used to constantly harp on all of his big game failures come crawling out of the woodwork. Yes, the “best ever” moniker has to go back on the shelf for a while, but calling the guy a choke artist is going a little too far. Manning has been voted MVP more times than anyone else because he is the most valuable player. How many quarterbacks could threaten an undefeated season with Charlie Johnson and Ryan Diem as their starting offensive tackles? He makes everyone in that franchise better from Austin Collie to Dwight Freeney all the way up to team President Bill Polian. Peyton Manning didn’t lose the Super Bowl. The Colts lost the Super Bowl because they got out-schemed and out-coached.

The Mock Madness Begins!

1. St. Louis:

The Rams followed up their two win season a year ago with a one win season and have earned the honor of picking number one overall in the draft. “You need a quarterback. Your offensive line is still in shambles. You don’t want to tie up too much money on your defensive line.” Don’t mind those whispers in the background. That’s just Detroit trying to convince St. Louis not to take Ndamukong Suh. Yes, St. Louis has greater needs elsewhere, but you don’t draft need over value with the number one pick. There is too much at stake. Don’t blink. Don’t think. Just take the best player available and most agree that Suh is the guy.
The Pick: Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska

2. Detroit:

Assuming St. Louis doesn’t do something crazy, the Lions will miss out on Suh. Lucky for them, there is someone touted as being almost as good for them to take instead. They have some work to do to get more physical on the offensive and defensive lines. A stud OT would be nice, but DT Gerald McCoy is considered a better prospect than any O-lineman available.
The Pick: Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma

3. Tampa Bay:

Here’s where things start to get interesting. The Buccaneers could use a wide receiver and need players just about everywhere on defense. They purged the majority of their veterans from last year’s roster and the one they kept, Ronde Barber, is starting to lose a step. Safety Eric Berry is the highest rated player at this point and a lot of mock drafts are tabbing him as Tampa’s guy. He is a special player, but a safety number 3 overall? Even Sean Taylor didn’t get taken until the fifth pick. The Bucs need defensive linemen just as bad as DB’s. I think pass rushing talent will win out in the end. DE Derrick Morgan isn’t a finished product, but he has everything scouts crave in defensive end prospects. He has size, speed, an impressive repertoire of pass-rush moves and he holds up strong against the run. By the time April rolls around, I think Morgan will have gained a lot of momentum. He might even threaten McCoy for the number two slot.
The Pick: Derrick Morgan, DE, Geogia Tech

4. Washington

What a coincidence. Washington has the fourth pick and this year’s draft class has the rare distinction of having a safety with top 5 talent. As weird as it would be to see the Redskins pick in the top 10 without taking a DB (see Laron Landry, Carlos Rogers and Sean Taylor), I don’t see new coach Mike Shanahan selecting a safety with his first choice as head man in Washington. A lot of people think Shanahan will go for his quarterback of the future here. Keep an eye on Sam Bradford’s draft stock, but at this point I think the Redskins are better served making a safer pick for a greater need. Russell Okung is currently thought to be the best all-around blocker available. Washington desperately needs talented youth on their offensive line.
The Pick: Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State

5. Kansas City

Who will pick Eric Berry? The final landing spots of QB’s are usually some of the more interesting storylines on draft day. I think it’s just as interesting to watch what happens when great players come along at lower value positions (S, LB, RB). Berry is considered a top five talent in the 2010 draft class. However, he is a safety. A lot of teams with high picks find it hard to commit the obligatory large sums of guaranteed money to lower impact positions. A lot of analysts are slotting OT in this spot for that very reason. It will be interesting. I think you might see a little bit of the opposite effect. Poor economic times and the unsettling labor landscape facing the NFL might force teams to opt for giving an elite guy like Berry more money instead of gambling on a boom or bust OT prospect.
The Pick: Eric Berry, S, Tennessee

6. Seattle

There is always at least one surprising coaching change at the end of each NFL season. The Seahawks made this year’s headlines in recent weeks when they coaxed USC coach Pete Carroll to head north. Carroll has plenty of work to do finding a quarterback to build around and reconstructing the offensive line. Rutgers OT Anthony Davis is a contender here, but when it’s all said and done I think Sam Bradford gains enough momentum to get the nod. They can squeeze another year out of Hasselbeck and hopefully have a chance to retool the o-line before Bradford has to take over.
The Pick: Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma

7. Cleveland

Having a roster desperate for offensive skill position players, I’m sure the newly appointed director of football operations, Mike Holmgren, would love to grab a weapon on his favorite side of the ball. Unfortunately, Oklahoma State WR Dez Bryant might be his only option along those lines and it is probably a few picks early for him even. He will most likely have to opt for defense instead. I think OLB is their biggest need, but the pickins are slim in the top half of the first round this year. The best value looks like Florida CB Joe Haden. Haden easily stands out above the rest of the CB’s in the draft. The theme continues. Play it safe. Don’t reach. Take the best player available.
The Pick: Joe Haden, CB, Florida

8. Oakland

This is where “play it safe” gets thrown out the window. Here we are again with the chore of trying to predict the Raiders in the top 10. The quarterback situation is a mess but I don’t think they’ll try to address that here. They need an OT, but that would make way too much sense. The next best bet is defensive end. Most have dropped Florida defensive end Carlos Dunlap in projections for maturity concerns, but if Al Davis thinks Dunlap can play, Davis won’t be scared to pick him. Stay tuned to see where his draft stock ends up.
The Pick: Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida

9. Buffalo

The Bills are yet another franchise with questions at QB and OT. Some think they’ll take a QB here but I don’t see them giving up on Trent Edwards quite yet. In that case, Buffalo will be ecstatic if Oakland does pass on the OT’s. They beefed up the interior portion of their line in last year’s draft. Now it’s time to secure the edge. Many think Anthony Davis is the most talented OT of the class. Right now, I see him as 2010’s version of Andre Smith. While he’s not likely to commit as many pre-draft gaffes as Smith, I think questions about his attitude will rule him out of top 5 contention.
The Pick: Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers

10. Denver

The Jaguars and the Broncos will flip a coin for the tenth pick so for now I’ll go ahead and cover both of them. The Broncos acquired this pick in the Cutler trade. Might they use it to pick their next quarterback? Until we get a better idea of Jimmy Clausen’s value, I’m going to say no. Denver could use help with their run defense, but it is too early for the second tier of DT’s. Next on Denver’s list should probably be wide receiver. Brandon Marshall might be out the door and Eddie Royal’s production dropped off in his second year. Even if Marshall doesn’t leave, Dez Bryant makes sense. Having been ineligible for most of the college season, grading Bryant as a top 10 talent is basically an assumption right now. He will have a lot of money at stake during workouts the next two months.
The Pick: Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State

11. Jacksonville

The Jaguars entered the home stretch of the season with playoff aspirations. Instead, they lost five of six and finished last in the AFC south. They focused on retooling the o-line in ’09 and finally might be going in the right direction at receiver. However, they are weak at strong side linebacker and still haven’t come up with a solution at DE. They can probably find a linebacker later. Depending on how things play out, it might boil down to Dunlap or Jason Pierre-Paul. Pierre-Paul is dynamic, but only has one year of D1 college experience. Last season’s film should be enough though and it will probably come down to whether he measures out big enough to play 4-3 DE in the pros.
The Pick: Jason Perre-Paul, DE, South Florida

Stay tuned for combine reaction, and hopefully I’ll get back to some long overdue Bengals chatter.

Going Bowling

As one player’s career prepares to rocket inevitably towards the status of legend in Miami, a legend’s career sputters just trying to get off the ground in Mobile. We’re in the dead of winter, the college season is over, and it’s time for the two most interesting bowls of all: the Super Bowl and the Senior Bowl.

The Super Bowl

The Super Bowl is a dreadful event. No wait, that’s a little harsh.
The Super Bowl is like George Foreman. Once a strong champion(ship) with enormous punching power, it ballooned to larger than life proportions in the late 80’s. While not quite as great as it used to be in its younger, fresher days, it still connects with one of those haymakers every once in a while to capture our intrigue. Today it lives on as a monstrous cultural icon that cannot be ignored. Plus, each new member of the Super Bowl family is named “Super Bowl” after the original. Okay, now I’m really reaching but seriously, the Super Bowl is out of control. The game that has turned into a weeklong circus has grown so absurdly huge that for a city to host the Super Bowl it must submit a bid to prove its capability of holding the festivities. Thousands of media members converge on “radio row” for one giant gossip-laden shmooze fest. The spectacle has built up over the years. Unfortunately, at the end of the road you’re still just talking about a football game that isn’t played any differently than the football games played two weeks ago. With all of the hype it’s pretty difficult as a fan to walk away from the game satisfied. We’ve been pretty lucky the last two years, but how often can you expect the underdog team’s quarterback to pull a Houdini move and hurl a desperate pass down the field to a receiver who acrobatically pins the ball between his hand and his helmet to spur a fourth quarter comeback? Nonetheless, the Super Bowl is still football’s championship, and the legacy of professional sports careers are ultimately measured in championships. As anti-climatic as the game may be, here is my take on Super Bowl XLIV.

Can’t you just picture Peyton Manning in a space suit on a launching pad preparing to get rocketed into orbit where he will live forever as football royalty? It looks as though this game is his chance to make a bid for the crown of greatest quarterback ever. If he wins it seems as though nothing short of injury could keep him from the title. If he loses, he’ll have an uphill battle to separate himself from the likes of Joe Montana, Johnny Unitas, and even Tom Brady.

After the championship games, the Colts were the consensus pick to win as the betting line for the Super Bowl started out at 4 points and then crept up to 7 as gamblers started to bet mostly on Indy. Things have cooled down some and the Dwight Freeney injury has a decent-sized contingent swaying towards New Orleans. However, I just can’t get past the way the Saints looked in the fourth quarter of the Vikings game. They froze up. The game was too big for them and they got jittery. Maybe they got it out of their system and will play a crisp game this weekend, but I can’t see them winning. Manning is too good. The Jets were one of those teams that catch fire at the end of the year and ride a wave all the way to the Super Bowl. They had the right formula. Take away the top two weapons to slow down the Indianapolis offense and use that big offensive line to grind them down until they topple over. It worked for two and a half quarters. Midway through the third, Manning’s trap sprung and all of a sudden you realized it was the Jets that were ground down. Greg Williams’ defense will come at Indy with a few more fireworks, but I think by the fourth quarter they will run out of magic tricks. Does the Freeney injury leave the door cracked open for the Saints? Probably, but Indy’s linebackers and safeties were fantastic against that Jets running game. I think they will force Drew Brees into one-dimensional shootout mode. They will keep pace for a while, but I like Indianapolis to separate in the fourth quarter.
The Pick: Colts by 17

The Senior Bowl:

Before all of the madness invaded Miami, the NFL world converged on Mobile, Alabama for a peek at college football’s best and brightest seniors during last week’s Senior Bowl practices. Amongst the players vying for the attention of NFL coaches and scouts was perhaps one of the greatest college football players of all time. The biggest storyline revolved around how Tim Tebow looked. How was he adjusting to pro-style formations and coaching? Can he play quarterback in the NFL? Despite all of the media focus on Tebow, there were plenty of winners and losers throughout both the North and South squads. Here are some of the highlights.

The Winners:

Brandon Graham, DE, Michigan:
I was expecting Graham to be a little bit bigger, but weighing in around 265 lbs probably helps him out to some extent as he’s still big enough to draft as a 4-3 DE, but he’s small enough to draw OLB considerations. Analysts reported Graham’s performance on the field as strong all week long. He was clearly more polished than any other defensive end participant and showed a strong ability to win one on one confrontations against offensive lineman. His stock probably jumps from late round 1 to the 15 to 20 range.

Jared Odrick, DT, Penn. St.:
As a smaller DT, Odrick isn’t capable of being a 2-gap clog-the-middle type of player so it was important for Odrick to demonstrate an ability to penetrate into the offensive backfield. Like Graham, Odrick stood out among his position group and displayed consistently the quickness and high-motor necessary to make plays behind the line of scrimmage. With the strong performance, Odrick now finds himself solidly in the first round with a chance to crack the top 25.

Dexter McCluster, RB, Mississippi:
At 5’ 6” and 165 lbs, the term undersized doesn’t really cut it here. If a special teams coach somewhere can figure out how to keep this little guy from getting broken, he is going to score a few TD’s next year. McCluster is lightning quick and runs with fearless ferocity, even between the tackles.

Go Bearcats!
Cincinnati standouts Mardy Gilyard and Tony Pike also did well for themselves last week. Gilyard wasn’t consistent catching the ball but showed off his quickness and rout running abilities. Teams needing a wide receiver will have a hard time passing him up in the mid to late second round. Pike didn’t dazzle throughout the week, but he looked good. He showed good arm strength and gave the impression he might be okay transitioning away from the spread offense. Scouts will have plenty of debates between now and April as to whether Pike is cool as a cucumber or just plain aloof. For right now, he has safely passed Tebow and has Colt McCoy in his sights as he looks to challenge become the third QB taken in the draft.

Other strong showings:
Riley Cooper (Florida) turned heads with great catches all week and the Jordy Nelson comparisons are starting already. Guard Mike Iupati (Idaho) stood out among offensive lineman and now has a good shot to draw first round consideration. Tennessee DT Dan Williams has more size than Odrick. His potential as a nose tackle slides him to the top half of the first round.

The Losers:

Tim Tebow, QB? Florida:
It doesn’t sound right to classify a guy that has succeeded like Tebow as a loser, but he certainly hit a major bump in the road last week. The nightmares that everyone envisioned of Tebow trying to take snaps under center turned out to be just as gruesome as analysts imagined. If fumbled QB/center exchanges weren’t enough to put Tebow’s draft stock on ice, his work during passing sessions throughout the week did the trick. Scouts were left wondering if maybe the guy should just ditch his mechanics and start from scratch. After the Sugar Bowl, I think some people began to think he might be alright as a pro QB. Now the potential for a position switch is the only thing that keeps his stock hovering in the third round range.

Terrence Cody, DT, Alabama:
Mount Cody came to Mobile on a mission to prove his worth as a massive space-eating defensive tackle. Mission failed. His fitness was poor and he didn’t exactly overpower people at the line of scrimmage. A good showing could have gained him round 2 status. Now, he has to worry about slipping out of round 3.

Vladimir Ducasse, OT, Massachusetts:
Ducasse is a small-school prospect that many thought could show off his athleticism and draw first round consideration if he showed OT potential. However, his lack of experience stuck out all week. It’s not the end of the world though. Even if they move him to guard, I don’t think he’ll fall past the bottom of round 2.

Overall, I think we learned some things from the Senior Bowl. There weren’t really any elite prospects on hand, but the late round 1/round 2 type of player was well represented. Draft boards are starting to shuffle, but from here things should stay fairly quiet until combine week. Keep an eye out for my first partial mock draft between now and then. In the meantime, we can look forward to a game featuring the art form that is Peyton Manning playing quarterback. The stage might be a little too big, but it should be quite a sight to see. Kick back, relax, grab some junk food, and enjoy the Super Bowl. It’s as American as apple...no wait. It’s as American as the George Foreman Grill.

Lining Up

Only one game left in the season. The anticipation is tremendous...to start some draft talk! The 2010 draft season is now in full swing. With the January 15 early entry deadline passed, the field is set and prospects are now jockeying for position. The Senior Bowl will kick things off this week, followed by the scouting combine in February, and pro-day workouts in March. As usual, all of the madness will culminate the last weekend in April with draft day. This year the NFL has decided to change things up for the big event with round 1 moving to prime time on Thursday, rounds 2 and 3 taking place on Friday and rounds 4 through 7 on Saturday.

If your team needs defensive help, prepare to get excited. The defensive talent available this year is overwhelming. More specifically, I can’t remember a class with more defensive line depth. In recent years, college football has produced very few NFL-ready defensive linemen. There have been plenty of smallish hybrid types best suited as OLB’s in a 3-4 defense, but 280 lb defensive ends that can move well enough to justify a first round pick have been hard to come by. This year there are at least four. As if that weren’t enough, the defensive tackle crop might be even stronger than the DE’s.

The DT’s:

The defensive tackle position is the early favorite to be 2010’s top position group with the headliner of the crop of course being Nebraska’s Ndamukong Suh. Suh was recognized by analysts and college football enthusiasts all year long as a top-notched prospect, but his performance in the Big 12 championship game against Texas blew people away. He is now a household name and the favorite to go number one overall as experts are touting Suh as the best defensive tackle prospect they have ever seen.

Suh might be the cream of the crop, but most scouts feel there isn’t much of a drop off to the number two DT, Gerald McCoy (Oklahoma). McCoy boasts an impressive array of pass rush moves not commonly found in college players. With a knack for getting up field to make big plays along with the size and strength that scouts covet in DT prospects, McCoy looks to be a sure-fire top five draft pick.

The second tier of DT’s consists of UCLA’s Brian Price and Tennessee’s Dan Williams. Price has proven to be stout against the run but needs to demonstrate better pass rush potential and ease endurance concerns to elevate into the top half of the first round. Williams, on the other hand, has flashed plenty of big-play potential. His weakness has been consistency, but a team with a hard-nosed coaching staff capable of motivating him could end up with a steal in the second half of the first round.

To top it all off, behind the top four DT’s the cupboard isn’t exactly bare. Jared Ordick showed in his work at Penn St. that he could get the dirty work done in the middle of a defense and he has a chance to sneak into the first round. Arthur Jones (Syracuse) has flashed a little more big play potential but a torn pectoral muscle and a torn meniscus within the last year leave him with some proving to do in selling teams on spending an early pick to take him. The shear size of the space-eater from Alabama, Terrence Cody, is bound to generate value, but as it stands right now he will have to work his way into the second round.

The DE’s:

The list of first round DE prospects starts with Georgia Tech’s Derrick Morgan. While Morgan isn’t quite as solidly in front of his peers as Suh, it would be hard to imagine him slipping out of the top ten and he doesn’t have much work to do to force his way into the top five. He isn’t a finished product but he has size and speed and has flashed the ability to use it.

Going into the 2009 season, Carlos Dunlap (Florida) was heralded as the second coming of Mario Williams: a 290 lb defensive end with the athletic ability of a 260 pounder. The late-season DUI has curtailed the enthusiasm surrounding the young DE, but even despite character issues I’m not sure he is what he’s cracked up to be. The few Florida games I saw, I thought he disappeared at times and looked too slim. I will be curious to see where he weighs in at the combine next month. Despite concerns, he has enough potential to keep him in the top half of the first round even if he doesn’t manage to boost his stock the next few months.

Two more DE’s with size looking for their names to be called in the first round are USC’s Everson Griffen and Michigan’s Brandon Graham. Griffen is a little raw, but he has flashed enough ability to get to the quarterback to keep him in the top 25. However, Graham , the lone senior of the bunch, has more experience. He is on the fringe of the first round right now, but when all is said and done the number of impact plays he made without a whole lot of help from the rest of the Michigan defense will propel Graham into the 20 to 30 range.

All in total that makes four possible first round defensive ends. Throw in the smaller Jason Pierre-Paul (South Florida), figure five first round DT’s and you end up with ten first round defensive linemen. In the last five years there were seven first round defensive lineman in 2009, six in 2008, seven in 2007, six in 2006, and five in 2005. With a greater quantity of players available at a better than usual quality one thing is for sure, come draft day GM’s will be foaming at the mouth preparing to snatch up prospects that will help teams get stronger in the defensive trenches.

Home Stretch

The Blog is back! The fall has flown by, and unfortunately I have been MIA for the past few months. But with the recent nosedive taken by my fantasy team, my URFFL season is over and it’s time to rejoin the blog circuit. So in case you’ve missed my not-so-expert NFL opinions, my naïve optimism for all things Bengal, or my unhealthy appetite for draft discussion, here is an update.

Home Stretch:

The playoff picture is firming up. The NFC field is locked in with teams still jockeying for position while AFC squads are fighting for wild card slots heading into the final week of the season. As the second half of the season has unfolded, most everyone’s favorites to reach the final four have been New Orleans, Minnesota, Indianapolis, and San Diego. Things have shifted a bit as of late and teams without a first round bye now have hope. Here’s my team by team take on the playoff picture.

Indianapolis:

The Colts were once again faced with the question inevitably asked when a team stays undefeated into December: Risk injury to chase perfection or rest players heading into the playoffs? Indy coach Jim Caldwell answered the question this past week pulling his teams’ stars while the game was still in doubt.

I think answering the question depends on the roster. Playing starters all the way to the end of the season is ideal. It allows a team to stay as sharp as possible while still utilizing the first round playoff bye to rest. This comes with injury risk, but I don’t like going into preseason mode right before the playoffs. However, the Colts’ roster relies on older stars that have been banged up throughout the year like Reggie Wayne and Dwight Freeney that could use extra time off. The thing to do would have been to play starters into week 17 and pull first stringers at some point in the second half. When the Colts start playoff play, it will have been four weeks since their team at full strength has been forced to take a game into the fourth quarter and close out a victory. That’s too long (see the Colts in 2005 against the Steelers).

That being said, Caldwell knows his team better than I do. They are still my Super Bowl favorite. Peyton Manning is just on a different level than everyone else. He has been far from flawless, but he has proven all year long that if he is within striking distance in the fourth quarter he will find a way. Not only does he put constant pressure on opposing defenses, but the mere presence of Manning at the end of a game causes opposing offenses and coaches to take risks they wouldn’t normally take (ask Bill Belichik).

New Orleans:

The Saints’ magic ran out in week 15 as they were finally unable to complete a comeback and they lost to Dallas. Another loss this past week, this time against the bottom-feeding Buccaneers, leaves analysts wondering if New Orleans has a playoff run in them. I think they do. It’s far from a sure thing. Any of the six NFC playoff teams could take the conference championship, but New Orleans still has a leg up. They haven’t been clicking on all cylinders offensively, but I like Sean Peyton to refocus his troops and tighten things back up just in time to win the shootout that will be the NFC playoffs.

San Diego:

The winter hot streak for the Chargers has continued, and many pundits have tabbed them as the current Super Bowl favorite. I don’t see it. I think they are overrated at this point. The consistency of their offense is their strength, but they aren’t invincible. Their receivers have size, but they can be defended. Their running game is talented but needs more toughness. Their defense has improved as the year has progressed but I don’t think they match up very well against the Colts. They’ve had Manning’s number in the past, but this year’s D doesn’t pass rush like they used to.

Philadelphia:

Beyond everyone’s big four there are a handful of dark horse candidates. Riding a six game winning streak, the Eagles are leading the pack. With Minnesota continuing to stumble down the stretch, Philly can even pry a first round bye from the Vikes with a win this Sunday. The Eagles have had injury setbacks all season. The offensive line doesn’t even come close to resembling the talented group originally projected to start week 1 and it has been a revolving door at linebacker all year long. In between they’ve had to do without the services of Brian Westbrook, Jeremy Maclin, Kevin Curtis, DeSean Jackson and even Donavan McNabb for various stints. All the while, the Eagles have rolled on gaining momentum like a snowball tumbling down a mountain. It remains to be seen whether their latest loss of starting center Jamaal Jackson will be the straw that breaks the Eagles’ back or if they will soar all the way to Miami. I’ve got them flying high before falling short in a showdown with the Saints in the NFC championship game. The Eagles defense has done just enough throughout the season to allow the offense to win games, but I think New Orleans is the one team that can out-duel McNabb and the quickly emerging Eagle offense.

Minnesota:

Brett Favre is right on schedule. He navigated a fairly punchless schedule with ease and had even some of his most ardent doubters back peddling their way onto his band wagon. Unfortunately, the boys in Minnesota got a little too comfortable and things are starting to fall apart. Who better than the old gunslinger to round up the stray cattle and save the season? I can think of about a dozen people and one of them might be Tavaris Jackson. The thing is, I don’t doubt the fact that the guy can still play quarterback. He is definitely in the top half of the league at his position. My contention all along has been that he will never win another Super Bowl because he can’t carry his team through three games against playoff-caliber competition any more. At some point, he will slip up and they will lose. People might say he doesn’t have to carry this team to win because he has enough talent surrounding him, but the problem is that Favre can’t win like that. It isn’t because he’s looking for revenge. It isn’t because he’s arrogant. He’s just not built like that. Even if the Vikings manage to steal back the number two seed, I don’t see them getting past Philly.

Cincinnati:

It has been quite a season for the orange and black. Their have been a lot of ups and downs, but the boys have fought hard and regardless of what happens Bengals fans can at least be proud of that. After years and years of failure, the defense has finally been transformed into a top-notch unit. The offense has shown flashes, but in the end Andre Caldwell, Laveranues Coles, and J.P. Foschi have been unable to fill the voids left by T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Chris Henry, and Reggie Kelly. A revitalized offensive line/rushing attack has masked some of the team’s offensive problems, but the fact is they just haven’t been able to convert consistently on third and five without Houshmandzadeh and they haven’t been able to apply pressure down the field without Henry. Can the Bengals go on a playoff run in their current state? Maybe. They can win in the wild card round playing at the same level they’ve been playing, but to do any damage against the big boys they’re going to need some of the younger players to catch fire.

Offensively, the spark has to come from Caldwell. All year long the Bengals O has struggled to put themselves in flexible situations on second and third downs. Increased production on mid-range routs might be the nudge needed to open things up for big plays from Chad Ochocinco and Cedric Benson. When Caldwell started to get involved this past week against the Chiefs, the Bengals put together a game-winning touchdown drive.

The defense has played with heart all year long. The secondary has executed at a high level and the front seven has held their own. Unfortunately, the pass rush hasn’t been the same since Antwan Odom went down early in the season. Jonathan Fanene has filled in admirably, but I’m not sure he’s capable of elevating his contributions to a higher level. To beat the top offenses in the league, this team needs a terror off the edge. The only potential candidate to fill that role is rookie DE Michael Johnson. He has started to come around utilizing his size (Have you seen his massive arms? Am I the only one who can’t wait to see what he looks like next year?) to bat down passes and his speed to apply pressure on the QB.

On special teams, Bernard Scott is the guy capable of providing a big boost. He had some big returns early in the year including the TD against Pittsburgh, but has been slowed by injury the second half of the season. Against teams that put up a lot of points, a kickoff return man that can dictate field position is crucial.

Conclusion:

At the start of the year, I picked New Orleans vs. New England in the Super Bowl. Whatever happens, it should be a horse race in the NFC. On the other side, unless one of the lower seeds manages to catch lighting in a bottle, it will be a predictable Indianapolis or San Diego Super Bowl birth from the AFC. New England isn’t good enough on defense and Cincinniti isn’t good enough on offense to make it through both top seeds. I’m going to stick with the Saints, but give Indianapolis the nod to come out of the AFC.

Stay tuned. It’s about time to start ratcheting up draft talk.

2009 Season Preview

It’s that time of year. Pre-season football has ceased to quench our thirst and everyone is dying for the year to finally start. It is also about the time when sports publications across the country come out with their NFL season previews featuring loads of predictions and roster analysis. I am usually pretty pumped to dig into these articles, but it never fails. Starved for new information, I find myself excitedly rifling through the pages of whatever magazine I’m subscribed to at the time only to find some shmo like Peter King writing about how Tom Brady is good and the Steelers and the Ravens are going to fight it out for the AFC North title. It’s easy to have a good feeling about the teams that looked strong at the end of last year, but c’mon people. The hierarchy within each division throughout the league rarely stays the same year to year. Have some imagination. Yes, it’s hard to go out on a limb when you have thousands of rabid fans from each team foaming at the mouth if you don’t pump up their team. But I don’t have that problem. Here’s my take on how things will play out this season.

AFC North: the King Reigns

1. Pittsburgh:
Fresh off of nit picking NFL writers for being predictable, I am going to go out on a limb and pick the Steelers to win the division. The physical play of their defense has been the division’s signature since, well..forever. They are mean, and they don’t look to be getting any “nicer” any time soon (not with Mike Tomlin around anyway). They are sure to face some injury hurdles, but I expect them to grit out another double digit win season despite the steady stream of tough luck that tends to plague teams the year after a deep playoff run.
Record: 10-6

2. Cincinnati:
Oh man. A few weeks ago, I would have been very tempted to post a big number here. What can I say, a couple of live action, real but not real football games and my optimism has cooled to some extent. The offensive line has shown it has some growing to do, and Reggie Kelley going down hurts. Still, I feel good enough about things to leave them slotted number 2 in the division with a winning record. The defense just might be legit. Jonathan Joseph and Domata Peko look like they might be poised for big things, but they more than anyone else HAVE to stay healthy if this unit is going to step into the top class of the league. On offense, it looks like Cincy will apply significant pressure on opponents through their receivers, and Cedric Benson is solid enough to capitalize on the space that will result. In 2005, it seemed like the Bengals had a date with destiny. They claimed the division with their first winning season in 15 years and the Super Bowl site was none other than Detroit, the location of Cincinnati’s first Super Bowl appearance. One missed block later a Steelers helmet had devastated Palmer’s knee and it all came crashing down. Never fear Bengals fans. Don’t stop, belivin’. Hold on to that feelin’. Where did the Bengals play their second Super Bowl? That’s right. Miami: the site of Super Bowl XLIV. Home of the Ocho. Sounds perfect to me. Okay, so all of my optimism hasn’t died.
Record: 9-7

3. Baltimore:
Baltimore third place in the division with a losing record? With that defense and a stellar young quarterback like Joe Flacco, how on earth could this happen?! Ray Lewis is old. Prior to last year, he was prone to injury. I think this is the year he fades, and the Ravens defense will fade with him. They let his replacement follow their coordinator out the door and the guys they have left have potential but aren’t ready to fill Lewis’ shoes. As for Flacco, c’mon people! Take off the rookie beer goggles. How many times have you heard this off-season how there is extra pressure on this year’s rookie QB’s because of what Matt Ryan and Flacco did last year? Nice accomplishment, but the mistake is assuming improvement. He threw for 2,971 yards, 14 TD’s, 12 INT’s, a 60% completion percentage, and a 22nd best quarterback rating of 80.3. Yeah okay, good job rook but let’s not get carried away. There’s no guarantee he makes huge strides in year two. Just ask former rookie of the year, Vince Young.
Record: 6-10

4. Cleveland:
The quarterback duel is grabbing headlines. Otherwise, things seem pretty quiet. The reign of Eric Mangini has officially begun. Cleveland appears to be building their team the right way: add role players across the whole roster and let elite players emerge. Depth added through the draft and free agency should restore the offensive line as one of the team’s strengths, and I expect Braylon Edwards to bounce back. The defense should be better under Rob Ryan, but I’m not sure we’ll know who’s going to start at QB until the offense breaks the huddle in their first possession of week 1. That’s not good.
Record: 5-11

AFC South: Time Capsule

1. Indianapolis:
This division should be brutal. Top to bottom, I think it’s the best in the league. I like the Colts to reclaim AFC South supremacy. There have been rumblings about difficulty transitioning to the new coaching staff, but you kind of get the feeling that Peyton Manning is due for a statistical explosion.
Record: 11-5

2. Jacksonville:
The Jaguars nipping at the heels of Indy for the division title? It’s almost like a 4-year flashback. This is a bit of a long shot, but I think offensive line injuries were the key to Jacksonville dropping to the back of the pack a year ago. They appear to once again be healthy and they added veteran Tre Thomas and high draft picks Eben Britton and Eugene Monroe just in case they aren’t. Improved protection along with the addition of veteran leader Torry Holt should help QB David Garrard rebound from an off year. The defense desperately needs a young player in the front seven to emerge. Quentin Groves, Derrick Harvey, and Justin Durrant are all good candidates.
Record: 9-7

3. Houston:
This is the year Matt Schaub finally makes it through the whole season! He’d better. Rex Grossman and Dan Orlovsky are the alternatives. With a healthy Schaub, you’d expect a better record. All of the pieces appear to be in place for an explosive offense, and their defensive front 7 looks pretty outstanding on paper. However, they spent significant draft and free agency resources to continue to upgrade up front while their secondary is less talented than some college teams. Disgruntled star CB Dunta Robinson deciding to finally sign his franchise tender provides a boost, but how much can you expect from a guy that clearly would have preferred to leave through free-agency? Maybe they’ll hold off a rebounding Jacksonville team and manage to notch 9 or 10 wins, but I think they’ll have to wait one more year for the franchise’s first playoff berth.
Record: 8-8

4. Tennessee:
Surprisingly, it’s first to worst for the Titans. Haynesworth wasn’t worth the $100 million it would have taken to keep him, but he made everyone on their defense better. Their offense proved towards the end of the year that it’s not the same without Chris Johnson. I don’t expect the mini RB to make it through the whole season and a svelte Lendale White along with WR additions Nate Washington and Kenny Britt aren’t enough to save the Titan-ic. Everyone seems to be way too comfortable with Kerry Collins as the starting QB. I’m not sure he’s going to hold it together for another full year and things aren’t exactly going to be all roses and cream puffs when Vince Young takes over.
Record: 8-8

AFC East: Patriot Training Grounds

1. New England:
Tom Brady is back and so are the Patriots. How many teams could lose their star quarterback in week 1, start a guy who hasn’t played legitimately since high school, and barely miss the playoffs? The big thing to take away from 2008 for New England was that without the protection of a juggernaut offense the Patriot defense showed plenty of cracks. The key to whether or not they return to the Super Bowl is if they have retooled enough. Critics felt they put too many resources into rebuilding the secondary, and they failed to plug holes in the linebacking corps. However, one of the moves that flew under the radar a bit was the post-draft trade for Oakland’s Derrick Burgess. Burgess is exactly the kind of player that always goes stale with one team and joins the Patriots for rejuvenation.
Record: 12-4

2. New England Prep Squad #1 (NYJ):
The top team in the division diligently helping prepare the Patriots for playoff time: The New York Jets. Get ready to meet the NFL media’s new poster boy for over-glorification. Rookie Mark Sanchez has won the starting quarterback job, and there seems to be enough of a supporting cast in place for him to kick off his career with a winning record. Don’t count on a playoff appearance though. I’m not sure their defense will be quite as strong as some are predicting, and Rex Ryan isn’t the right man for the head-coaching job.
Record: 9-7

3. New England Prep Squad #2 (Buffalo):
The 2009 Bills look like they might be an upstart team that will surprise opponents with stingy defense and streaky offense. Their pass rush was non-existent last season, but the defensive line appears healthy once again and has added some fire power in first round draft pick Aaron Maybin. Offensively, the trick will be whether they can keep the peace on the T.O. front until RB Marshawn Lynch comes back from suspension in week 4 to provide them with one more explosive weapon.
Record: 7-9

4. New England Prep Squad #3 (Miami):
The Dolphins should provide a nice look at the Wild Cat so the Pats will be ready for any kind of offense they might see in January. Most people are citing a huge up-tick in schedule difficulty as the cause of Miami’s ’09 demise, but I think it’ll have more to do with a backslide on defense. Jason Ferguson up front is getting up there in age along with OLB’s Jason Taylor and Joey Porter. Can youngsters like LB Channing Crowder, safety Jason Allen, and CFL sack-master, Cameron Wake, make up for the potential decline of their top playmakers?
Record: 6-10

AFC West: Future Stomping Grounds of Sam Bradford

1. San Diego:
For what seems like the tenth season in a row, the Chargers are being touted as the so called “most talented roster in the league” with a great chance at challenging for AFC supremacy. It might be LT’s last shot at a title and they will probably win the division by default, but I don’t see them making the Super Bowl. While they are still good on both sides of the ball, their underrated offensive and defensive lines have taken hits due to age and free-agency.
Record: 9-7

2. Oakland:
Don’t be fooled by the locker room scuffles amongst the coaching staff and the preseason blowout losses. The Raiders are going to bring it in 2009… or something like that. Can JaMarcus Russell step up and actually start earning his paycheck? If not, maybe Jeff Garcia has one more year left in the tank… No wait, they cut him. Maybe Charlie Frye can work some magic. Can Darren McFadden stay healthy enough to put some of that disgusting talent to use? If not, Justin Fargas and Michael Bush are solid enough to be productive. The defense needs an overhaul up front but I think the young guns on O will man up enough to post an Even Steven in the win / loss columns.
Record: 8-8

3. Kansas City:
Reports out of K.C. have savior Matt Cassel struggling a bit throughout preseason. Maybe it’s just for show as new Coach Todd Haley has used similar “motivational” theatrics elsewhere on the team demoting top receiver Dwayne Bowe to 3rd string. Then again, the guy fired his offensive coordinator two weeks before the start of the season so maybe he is actually crazy. Either way, his offensive line still isn’t rebuilt. The Cassel injury opens the door for Tyler Thigpen and allows everyone to avoid a little bit of embarrassment in case they truly weren’t happy with how Cassel was showing.
Record: 7-9

4. Denver:
Talk about a crappy off-season. Denver had to totally collapse to miss the playoffs last year. Since then, they’ve gone from having one of the most experienced coaches in the league to being led by a 33 year-old rookie. They switched to a 3-4 defense that will require at least another year or two of personnel adjustments to acclimate to. Their star QB cried his way out of town. Their top receiver is trying to do the same. Even the Broncos faithful are starting to chatter about the possibility of nabbing Sam Bradford or the anit-Cutler, Colt McCoy, with the top pick in the 2010 draft. Don’t hang your heads too low Denver fans. The foundation is already laid for a quick return to prominence. Outside of nose tackle and QB, there is a young star or future star in place at just about every position. With Alphonso Smith at DB, D.J. Williams at ILB, Elvis Dumervil at OLB, Robert Ayers at DE, Knowshon Moreno at RB, Eddie Royal at WR, and Ryan Clady on the OL, 2009 might look like a confused mess but the outlook on the next three to five years actually doesn’t look too bad.
Record: 4-12


Brett Favre: NFC North

1. Green Bay:
Does the preseason really matter? If so, the Packers are going to put a hurtin on some teams this year. Brett who? This year is setting up to be endlessly gratifying for QB Aaron Rodgers. He has a strong opportunity to prove once and for all that the Packers made the right move ditching #4 to give him his shot while going head to head with the man himself. On top of that, if Rodgers torches the league for the statistical dream season he looks to be primed for he will have the last laugh over every franchise that passed on him. He and Alex Smith were top prospects in the 2005 draft. Smith went number 1 overall, but the whole league picked apart Rodgers’ mechanics and he tumbled all the way to the 24th pick. Meanwhile Smith looks to have fallen short in his last opportunity to claim the 49ers starting QB job. Rodgers will have plenty of help. Green Bay has quietly built one of the best groups of receivers in the league and RB Ryan Grant looks ready to bounce back from an under whelming 2008 season. On the other side of the ball the defense has shown some punch, hinting they might be one of the rare teams to excel in their first year trying to run a 3-4.
Record: 10-6

2. Minnesota:
Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre, Brett Favre. Brett Favre. The Vikes finally played the card up their sleeve. It’s funny, now that it finally happened some of the doubters are starting to come to the forefront. Brett Favre, Brett Favre. There are some poor suckers still clinging to the Brett Favre makes the Vikings a Super Bowl contender theory, but there is also a healthy contingent forecasting disaster. Personally, I think Minnesota will win more games with Brett Favre at the helm than either Sage Rosenfels or Tarvaris Jackson. However like I said before, Brett Favre is not capable of winning three games in a row against playoff caliber teams. That ship has sailed. Can Jackson or Rosenfels? Probably not. But there is a snowball’s chance in Miami that one of those two could suddenly blossom into a championship quarterback. Brett Favre? Not so much. Some would argue the balance of the Vikings’ roster looks strong enough to carry the team to a title even with average quarterback play. On paper? Maybe. In reality, I don’t think so. Brett Favre.
Record: 9-7

3. Chicago:
The top story in Chicago has centered around the arrival of Jay Cutler and whether or not he has enough weapons to make a difference for the Bears. They could use a big play receiver, but I think the guys they have in combination with increased production out of TE Greg Olsen will be enough to keep from holding them back. Second year RB Matt Forte should be the focus of the offense anyway. The bigger concern is whether the defense can return to prominence. It seems like Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs, Nathan Vasher, and Charles Tillman should all be getting awarded rocking chairs for their 30 years of service with the franchise.
Record: 7-9

Detroit:

How far will the Lions climb out of their hole in year one of life after 0-16? Given the pieces that are already in place, I think they will progress further than some are giving credit. Calvin Johnson is simply an amazing athlete. Having already posted elite WR numbers in year two at one of the hardest positions to transition to from college, Johnson could soon threaten top player in the league status. Kevin Smith looks like an above average RB and the O-line isn’t as bad as some people seem to think. I still am of the opinion they made the wrong move picking Matthew Stafford, but at least they have a direction at QB. The Lions would be crazy to start Dante Culpepper for anything less than a year, but they’ve seemed indecisive about the decision and Culpepper’s recent foot injury has thrown things up in the air. The defense needs a little more work, but there is hope. LB Ernie Sims is above average, and Julian Peterson and Larry Foote are steady veterans with another year or two left in their tanks. I’m excited to see what kind of impact they get from rookie safety Louis Delmas. The roster is moving in a positive direction and the division isn’t as strong as analysts are making it out to be. The result should be a whopping six wins.
Record: 6-10


NFC South: One steps up, two step back

1. New Orleans:
The New Orleans Saints: Super Bowl contender. It has been a trendy opinion the past couple of seasons. This year it might actually be true. The offense doesn’t show any signs of slowing down, but the key will be whether the defense can step up. The Achilles heel has been their secondary. They have tried and tried to paste together an effective group of DB’s but have failed miserably. Of all the attempts though, this might be the best. Second year man Tracy Porter has showed promise and free agent Jabari Greer starting across from him is an upgrade. To back them up, rookie Malcolm Jenkins is a little underrated right now and free agent signee Randal Gay is decent coming off the bench. The biggest upgrade however might be Darren Sharper at safety. If he has anything left, he might be the veteran needed to finally make things work. If not, it could get messy. Trying to restore his reputation after having once been considered one of the best in the business, new defensive coordinator Greg Williams is implementing a more aggressive defense. I think the kind of fire Williams will bring is what the Saints need to push them over the top. Drew Brees, see you in Miami.
Record: 12-4

2. Atlanta:
Matty Ice is all the rage in Hot-lanta and the Falcons have become the up-and-coming sleeper team in a lot of eyes. However, much like in New Orleans, it’s not going to be that smooth. At first glance the defense looks most likely to hold them back. They have young players like Chris Houston and Chevis Jackson on the corners, Jamaal Anderson on the edge, Peria Jerry in the middle, and William Moore at safety. I like the unit being built by head coach Mike Smith, but they need some linebackers to go with Curtis Lofton and a couple of years to develop. It will just be a matter of whether they blossom in time to catch the tail end of star pass rusher John Abrham’s career. The defense is raw, but the offense will take its lumps too. For a rookie, Matt Ryan’s numbers were good last year, but, again, projecting steady improvements for young quarterbacks is dangerous. Interesting stat from ESPN the Magazine: in weeks 11 through 17 last year, Matt Ryan was outperformed by JaMarcus Russell in terms of quarterback rating. I’m not ready to declare Ryan a top ten quarterback yet. Tony Gonzalez has peaked. Michael Turner has looked great in the preseason but can he stay healthy? These guys are going to have an up and down season. Look for them to make waves if the league is still standing in 2011.
Record: 9-7

3. Carolina:
It isn’t hard to foresee a drop-off in the Panthers’ play considering the last time we saw them, Jake Delhomme was self destructing against Arizona in the playoffs. On top of that, the Panthers are a cyclical team. In fact, the franchise has never had back to back winning seasons. Steve Smith is a beast with another big year left in him and DeAngelo Williams is a stud. They just don’t have enough help right now. The defense was thin up front before losing starting DT Maake Kemoeatu. Now they’re in trouble. Julius Peppers wants out, but says he’s professional enough to keep it from affecting his play. That sounds great until things start to go south.
Record: 6-10

4. Tampa Bay:
It’s full-fledged rebuilding mode in Tampa. They hired a 33 year-old coach and decided they had to cut loose everyone older than Raheem Morris. Ronde Barber was about the only one to survive the slaughter. I like the vibe Morris has created with his team. They exude a real sense of camaraderie. Instead of the old general leading his troops, they have more of a brothers-in-arms feel. They will overachieve, but there’s just not enough talent to get it done this year.
Record: 4-12

NFC East: Great in the Regular Season, Regular in the Playoffs

1. Philadelphia:
Get ready for the greatest show on turf part deux. If the O-line stays healthy, this offense has a chance to be special. I just hope Andy Reid doesn’t mess it up trying to get cute using Michael Vick. I think they come out of the gate quick and come down to earth towards the end of the year. The defense is good, but they lost Brian Dawkins to free-agency. They lost defensive coordinator Jim Johnson to cancer. They lost MLB Stewart Bradley to injury. With losing that much leadership, they’ll have trouble sustaining a high level of play the whole season. In the end, the Eagles edge out the Giants for the NFC East title, but run out of gas in the playoffs.
Record: 11-4-1 (more on that later)

2. N.Y. Giants:
How about Eli the $100 million man? Manning is good but not great. Quarterbacks are hard to find, so the Giants felt they had to extend him and overpaid. Meanwhile, they single handedly raised the price tag of every QB in the league. Either that or they actually still think Manning is an upper echelon QB. We should find out this year. The offense is on his back. Their receiving corps is Eagles-esque: some talent with no elite playmakers. The O-line is still solid and Brandon Jacobs is a horse, but in the end it all boils down to Eli. The offense may run hot and cold, but their D should get them into the playoffs. The defensive line ran out of gas in ’08, but they’ve added enough firepower in the off-season to avoid the same fate this year.
Record: 11-5

3. Dallas:
Prevailing opinion on the Boys seems to be they aren’t all that different from last year. Consequently, their record won’t be all that different from last year. Roy Williams will be better than people are giving credit, but the guy that picks up the T.O. slack has to be their most explosive player: Felix Jones. Their defense might not have all the pieces they need to be dominant, but they have enough to go along with pass rush terror DeMarcus Ware to be adequate. They finish third in the division, but they’re the fourth best team in the conference and manage to snag the second wild card slot.
Record: 9-7

4. Washington
Once again, owner Daniel Snyder couldn’t contain himself in the off-season. It’s still not going to work. They’ve put an awful lot of eggs in the enormous basket of a big man. He’d better stay healthy. They’re not a bad team. In most divisions, they’d challenge for a playoff spot. The tie listed in the Eagles record above comes against the Redskins in week 12. Crafty coach Jim Zorn’s crafty offense will inch its way up the field in the OT. With 12 seconds to go, they run a draw to Rock Cartwright. Despite the Redskins having one time out left, the clock expires. Zorn struts off the field, arms thrust in the air like he just nailed the gold-medal-winning vault on a bum ankle at the Olympics, and Daniel Snyder’s head explodes. Meanwhile, Donovan McNabb trots out onto the field for the coin toss of the second OT.
Record: 4-11-1

NFC West: Almost Irrelevant

1. Seattle:
Feels like a bounce back year for the Hawks. The roster has quality, and it will take at least a year for new coach Jim Mora to mess it up. I like rookie Aaron Curry and veteran Cory Redding to rejuvenate the D. The offense isn’t going to blow any doors off, but they’ll win games. The offensive line might be trouble.
Record: 10-6

2. San Francisco:
I don’t know how the 49ers are going to do it. Some how, some way, Mike Singletary will figure it out. I’m kind of scared to see what happens if they don’t.
Record: 9-7

3. Arizona:
Kurt Warner had off-season hip surgery (and I thought he couldn’t seem any older).
The Super Bowl loser always drops down a notch after a failed championship run. Their defensive coordinator is gone and their offensive coordinator got poached. I think Chris Wells is the real deal, but the offense won’t quite chug like it once did with Matt Leinart at the helm and a gimpy Anquan Boldin.
Record: 7-9

4. St. Louis:
Steve Spagnuolo will get the boys scrappin’ but it’ll be a couple of years before we really know what he can do. The offensive line isn’t rebuilt yet, and the defense still doesn’t have any teeth. Pick LB, OT/G, WR (in that order) in the next draft and things might get interesting pretty quick.
Record: 3-13


It is a delicate balance between the extremes of making predictions that are obvious and boring and ones that are so outlandish they’re not even worth reading. I’m not sure I was bold enough, but things like the AFC division winners being Pit, Indy, N.E., and San Diego are hard to get away from. My projected win and loss totals should add up to the right numbers although I have no idea if the combinations listed are possible. For the record, I’m going with New England over New Orleans in the Super Bowl.

Defense?

Brought in as a much-heralded defensive mind, one of the key criticisms to head coach Marvin Lewis’ tenure has been his inability to develop an effective defense. Yet, even his most persistent doubters have to acknowledge that many of the team’s issues are more related to personnel than coaching and philosophy. Lewis has some impact on the players he ends up with, yes, but there are a lot more than just his hands involved in the process and luck and economics factor in strongly as well. Right off the bat, his best player had had his fill of the Queen city, and there was no way the Bengals were going to fork out the cash to keep Taekeo Spikes. Just as Madieu Williams looked to be on his way to great things, injuries set him back a few years and it seemed like he never recovered past anything better than just an average player. David Pollack showed signs he might be the lynchpin pass-rushing force perfect for building the unit around, but his career lasted less than two seasons thanks to injury. Odell Thurman fizzled out too. So here we are, a play date with the boys in orange and black has been the miracle cure for struggling opposing offenses for almost two decades, we’ve had a defensive guru as head coach for six years and there has been little progress. Until now? While continuing to display many flaws, the Bengals’ 2008 defense showed some signs of life. Fans have high hopes that last year was just a stepping stone for what has yet to come.

Last season, new defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer led his boys to a league ranking of twelfth in yards/game. True, there wasn’t a whole lot separating teams 12 through 22, but considering for support Cincy’s D had the league’s worst offense, I’d say it was quite an accomplishment. Can Zimmer elevate his unit to the next level? If so, it all starts up front. On the second level, the linebacking corps has to continue to progress, and the secondary has to stay healthy.

First Line of Defense:

Perhaps the biggest key to the Bengals’ D becoming a force to be reckoned with is the defensive line. Cincinnati has long craved a drain-clogging presence at DT and Domato Peko and Pat Sims just might be it. Towards the end of 2008, as the team started to be more competitive, some of the pressure was taken off the rush defense and the young duo started to show what they can do. They acquired a slight upgrade from John Thornton in Tank Johnson (assuming he behaves), but Peko is really the guy that has to continue to develop and anchor. Past the top three guys, coaches will likely have to make a judgment call on who would be a more valuable to keep on the roster: the mammoth late-round 2008 draft pick Jason Shirley or the smaller more athletic prospect selected in the sixth round this year, Clinton McDonald.

The bigger question: can the guys on the edge get to the quarterback? I’m excited to see if Antwan Odom can make an impact in year two with the team. He has reportedly bulked up to 285 and has some punch, but it remains to be seen if he can convert his rebuilt physique into sacks. Coming back from microfracture surgery, I’m not sure that Robert Geathers has a 10-sack season in him. I think the backups are solid in Jonathan Fanene and Frostee Rucker, but I don’t see either making a big impact outside of run support. The X-factor is rookie Michael Johnson. He has all the tools to be special. The coaches just have to find a way to extract it from him. Hit ‘em with Odom, the hammer, on one side and strike with lightning on the other. It will also help to have T. Johnson as more of a threat to rush from the inside. Who knows, it just might work.

The Heart of the Matter:

The linbacking corps has a chance to be great. It might not be today. It might not be tomorrow, but eventually I think people are going to take notice of this group. The impact of getting Keith Rivers back is getting overlooked right now. The guy got his feet wet last year and showed a real nose for the ball, but an injury shortened rookie season has him flying a bit under the radar. Dhani Jones handles the middle competently while providing immense personality and leadership to the team. He should last just long enough until Rey Maualuga is ready to take over. Rashad Jeanty is the underrated player of the crew. He is tough as nails and seems to play solid whenever given the opportunity. Tallying 96 tackles in ‘08 in his third year with the Bengals, coaches will most likely stick with him as the starter on the strong side and substitute in Maualuga at their discretion. Along with Maualuga, Darryl Blackstock, Brandon Johnson, and Abdul Hodge represent a fairly capable crop of backups. The group has been banged up during camp, but no one is expected to miss extended time. If all goes well, they will be the stabilizing force of the unit that provides the flare needed to take things up a notch.

Thin Around the Edges?

The Bengals have invested highly in their corners. Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph have a couple of years under their belts. Is this the year they pay major dividends? I’m not so sure they will. I think they can both be very good, but for them to play at an all-star level they have to be enhanced by the front seven. If the defensive line and linebackers can do a better job forcing opposing offenses to be more predictable and take risks, these two will flourish. All they have to do is stay healthy. Or at least they’d better. The team was thin behind the young starters before David Jones went down. If Jones doesn’t stay healthy when he comes back, would they be okay with some combination of Jamar Fletcher, Geoff Pope, and Morgan Trent? Maybe but if one of the starters goes down it could get ugly. I just hope one of the safeties can play corner. Fans have to be excited to see if Chris Crocker picks up where he left off in ’08. Stick him next to Roy Williams in the starting lineup and you can just feel the defense getting meaner. Chinedum Ndukwe is opportunistic. Marvin White is a hard-nosed gamer. Corey Lynch and Kyries Hebert are ideal backups with significant special teams prowess. Who do you cut? I hope they keep all six, but it seems like going with only four pure corners is becoming more and more of a long shot. I think it comes down to how White looks coming back from the torn up knee and if Williams can still play with the edgy toughness he exudes in his personality.

Does this defense have a shot at finally breaking the mold of being perpetually ordinary? Absolutely. The mix of veterans and younger players is almost perfect. Top to bottom they are as talented as they have been since I’ve been cheering for them. The one thing they are missing is a face. They have several guys who can lead, but they don’t have that player that consumes the minds of offensive coordinators around the league. They don’t have a game changer...yet. Right now, it’s all about potential. All of the pieces are on the table. Personnel is no longer the sticking point. Now more than ever the onus is on Lewis and Zimmer to turn these guys into something special.

Talk Soup

Never fear football fans. The sports wasteland that is July is almost over. That sound you hear is the creak of training camp doors opening. The NFL’s army of journalists and has-been player analysts are back to work pumping out endless streams of league news and another year of football is right around the corner. Before it’s time to get serious about ’09 prospects for the orange and black, I’m going to blow off some steam on a few of the “top” stories that have been and probably will remain in the forefront of topics covered this off-season. When and where will Michael Vick resume his NFL career? What impact will T.O. have in Buffalo? And last but absolutely not least, what was Brett Favre feeling as he ate breakfast this morning?

Where will Vick land?
As has been painstakingly chronicled Michael Vick is out jail and on the prowl for a job. Discussions went back and forth as the former phenom awaited Commissioner Roger Goodell’s decision on his league reinstatement: He’s served his time, let him in! He’s a liar and a criminal, send him back into exile! First of all, Goodell’s job is to protect the league. It’s all about risk vs. reward. He should figure out the option he thinks is going to generate the least negative publicity and go that direction. Second of all, it doesn’t matter when Vick gets reinstated or who might take the risk of signing him. This time of year most teams are going to be hesitant to even bring him in as a backup QB. That leaves a best-case scenario of sitting on the bench as a third-stringer and running the occasional circus-stunt third down play. The real answer is, Vick should put off jumping back into the NFL pressure cooker and step right up to the United Football League. Meant to be a developmental league for the NFL anyways, the UFL will start in October and consist of a six game season that lasts until Thanksgiving. Preparing for their inaugural season, they would welcome the publicity Vick brings with opens arms. Stepping right in as a starter, not only would Vick get the repetitions necessary to shake off two years of rust, but playing against professional players a cut below the talent level of the NFL would be the perfect place to remind everyone how freakish he is athletically. To top it all off, when the league breaks in November, he’d have the option to sign on with an NFL team at right about the time when people are getting desperate to make something happen. If he plays it right he has a good shot at parlaying half a years play into a pretty decent contract for 2010.

What will happen with T.O. this year in Buffalo?
Exactly what you think will happen. He’ll be a boy scout for six weeks or so. About the time three or four losses pile up, it will start. He’ll realize Lee Evans has more catches than him and start to hear the whispers about how he’s lost a step. Then he’ll find a reason he doesn’t like what the coaches are doing or how the quarterback is playing…and the rest is history. You can’t blame the Bills for trying. After all, receivers with his talents don’t exactly grow on trees, and usually Owens puts one good year in before he blows up. For a franchise dying to make something happen, what’s the harm in signing the guy up for a year? Unfortunately, he is just too much, and I have a feeling it will be one and done in Buffalo. I hear Joey Galloway plans on leaving New England next year for the Senior Tour, so I imagine the Patriots will be in the market for a 36 year-old receiver. It’s probably the only place that could come close to containing him. I’d at least like to see them try.

What is Brett Favre Feeling?
Better yet, what was Minnesota thinking? People keep clamoring how if Favre signed with the Vikings, they transform from a playoff team to a Super Bowl team, but what I can’t figure out is how these journalists/analysts can justify collecting a paycheck. I thought people were nuts to criticize Green Bay last year for turning over the reins to Aaron Rodgers, but the sentiment could at least be condoned based off the decent momentum the Packers had from the ’08 season. Favre then moved on to the Jets and proceeded to run out of gas mentally and physically again (this time in the regular season instead of the NFC Championship game), and people still somehow think this guy can step in with a new team and deliver. I don’t care what running back or defense he has for support, Favre can no longer win three playoff games in a row. The Vikings are better off with Sage Rosenfels as their starting QB because a one in a million chance of winning the Super Bowl is still greater than zero.

Alright, I feel better. I’ll try to check back in shortly with some Bengals chatter.