That's All Folks

The NFL regular season is complete and it has been a wild year on many levels. For starters, I can’t remember a season shaped quite so heavily by trips to the injured reserve. It started early with the Peyton Manning saga and kept right on going with hamstrings and achilles tendons popping like jiffy pop on asphalt in the Sahara desert. You could probably field a pro bowl squad with the guys that missed significant time this year. Possibly most significant was the quarterback casualties. Part way through the year, it looked like Chicago and Houston were poised to threaten the offensive juggernauts of the league with the well-rounded team approach before Cutler and Schaub bit the dust. After that it was open season for Rodgers and Brees, and the season handicapped by tough luck on the injury front just sort of played out. It’s ironic that a year with such historic offensive performances could be nominally characterized as mediocre. Think about it. Green Bay offense: 9.8. New Orleans Offense: 10.0. Patriots offense: 9.0. Name one other great unit in the league this year. San Francisco defense maybe? I don’t know. Everyone else that wasn’t awful seemed like a weird blend of streakiness that beat up on lesser teams headed up by the awkward, polarizing, sensational, absurd 8-game run of Tebowmania (for the record, I’m surprised that spell check doesn’t recognize Tebowmania).

That is the 2011 season in a nut shell, so without further ado - on to my annual playoff preview. I’m a little late on this so hopefully you catch it before the weekend plays out. If not, maybe you’ll humor me and give it a quick read next week to see how I did.

The NFC

The NFC leads the way with Green Bay and New Orleans firmly at the top of everyone’s power rankings and San Francisco lurking as an under the radar dark horse to make a run at the title. Note: if college football ruled the world there’d be no games for four weeks before the Saints and Packers lined up in a rematch for all the marbles (and of course the other teams would play each other in over-hyped, meaningless exhibition games. That wacky Patriots offense would take on the blue-collar 49ers. Don’t worry Cowboys and Jets, you’ll get in too. Your fans will travel). Thankfully, instead we’ll get NO and SF battling it out in a win or go home grudge match for a crack at the defending champs (seriously college football, wake up).

It will be interesting to track the Saints over the next few weeks. They are probably playing better than anyone but have the toughest road of the contenders. After they out-sprint the Lions, they head outdoors against the one team built to take them down. If they manage to eek out a win over the 49ers, they head to Lambeau field for a chilly shootout with the Pack. I’m not sure they can navigate that yoyo. The Giants/Falcons game could be the closest match-up of the early games but neither (I’ll say Atlanta exploits New York’s shaky secondary) could survive against Green Bay. In week two, San Francisco manages to stop the unstoppable and heads to Green Bay with another large chip on their shoulder (coyly cemented into place by Coach of the Year Jim Harbaugh). I think they give the champs a run for their money but lose in a nail-biter to Rodgers in crunch time. Green Bay punches their ticket to Indianapolis.

The AFC

On the other side of the bracket, I don’t know if Pittsburgh has enough left in the tank to make a run. Their defense is healthy enough to squeak past Denver, but the Patriots will put Big Ben and company out of their misery in the second round. The Steelers title hopes wilted when they missed out on the bye. Winning four straight playoff games is too much for them right now. New England vs. Baltimore will be interesting, but Torrey Smith and Ray Rice seem like a favorable match-up against the Pats’ flawed defense. The Baltimore D does just enough and the Ravens squirt into the Super Bowl by what seems like default.

The Super Bowl

Green Bay is banged up on the offensive line but I don’t know if this could have played out better for them. Like the Patriots, they give up points on D, but they at least have more than a JV secondary. The Ravens can’t hang and the Packers are your repeat champions. It’s hard to do, but general manager Ted Thompson has built a roster capable of winning back-to-back titles. That’s all for now. Keep an eye out for a preview of the draft landscape. The draft order is solidifying and I am getting pumped!

Let 2011 Begin

Well, it’s been a busy summer. Unfortunately, that means I’m behind on my blog posts. Here are some thoughts from around the league for kickoff weekend…

Free Agent Frenzy

Despite the nauseating display of greed and entitlement, the one bright spot to come out of the lockout was an entire offseason furiously crammed into a month and a half. Here a few thoughts from around the league…

Kolb Shipped Cross Country

The Eagles sold high on Kevin Kolb landing an above average CB and a second round draft pick from Arizona. Most people seemed to chalk up the win for Philly in this trade. They raked in great value for an unproven player, but I think long-term the Eagles front office made a mistake. As soon as last season ended, the chatter started. Kolb wants a chance to start. Will the Eagles hold him hostage? Where should Philly trade Kolb? Eventually, Arizona struck the deal and Kolb headed to the desert. The whole time the saga unfolded, I thought to myself, “TRADE VICK. TRADE HIM RIGHT NOW”. The Eagles did an amazing job maneuvering out of the Donavan McNabb era. They handed over the car keys to Kolb. When the injury bug bit, Michael Vick stepped in and ripped off an electrifying season where he proved once again to be a difference maker that could single handedly take over football games. That is fantastic. Intoxicating even. I don’t care. SELL, SELL, SELL! Cash out, while the value is high. The guy is a meteorite. He has 1.5 to 2 years left on his prime, and anyone who thinks he will be able to keep this level of production up as his athletic skills start to erode is looking at this with tunnel vision. Would they have taken heat for walking away from the chance to see what would happen in a full year with Vick at the helm? Absolutely, but you have to take the emotion out of it. The team is built around Kolb. Kolb would give them a 5 to 7 year window. Their current arsenal of offensive weapons should hold up for another 4 to 6 years with time to add more pieces between now and then. The offensive line needs rebuilt (again). The defense is still at least two years away. The defensive line has to mature. They need linebackers. Is there anyone in the country that would bet on Vick playing the whole season? Yet, they opted to push all their chips onto the table for the 2011 season instead of letting it ride on Kolb + whatever resources they could have swindled out of some poor sucker trying to catch a lightning bolt that has already flashed.

Manning Issues

Peyton Manning has had another neck surgery and will likely miss the whole season. I can’t believe this story took so long to play out. The guy had surgery on his neck. As he was rehabbing, stories detailed how the nerves in Manning’s neck needed to regenerate. There were no reports on any major progress or about how close he was to coming back. Clearly he wasn’t going to be ready to take hits from linebackers in September or any time this fall. I wish I would have posted something earlier because now that more information is out I probably sound like revisionist history guy, but c’mon people. Some people are still debating whether or not he is going to come back this year. Seriously? Shut it down. Try to salvage the tail end of his career next year.

With Manning out, the outlook in Indy is bleak. Some are contending this is still going to be a .500 level team, but I don’t see it. Manning has hidden a lot of warts the last four years and they’re all going to show. The offensive line has been below average since Tarik Glenn left. The running game, the receiving personnel, the defense, even the coaching staff: it’s all built based on having Manning under center. Without him, they are in the bottom five tier of the league. You want to talk about interesting, what would Indy do with the number 1 draft pick next year?

2011 Season Rundown:

AFC North:

1. Pittsburgh – 11 wins
2. Baltimore – 8 wins
3. Cleveland – 6 to 7 wins
4. Cincinnati – 6 to 7 wins

This is how most people have it shaking out. However, I think Baltimore falters, Cleveland fails to take the next step, Cincy surprises some people, and all three teams end up with 6 to 8 wins. It’s hard to go two years in a row, but Pittsburgh looks like a Super Bowl Contender.

AFC South:

1. Houston – 10 wins
2. Tennessee - 9 wins
3. Jacksonville- 5 wins
4. Indianapolis – 2 wins

It’s do or die for Houston. I say they come out of the gate fast and fade down the stretch. The Titans have a better season than expected, but get edged out for the division title. The Jags once again go to the well of cutting their starting QB a week before the season. Weird. Andrew Luck to Indy? Go figure.

AFC East:

1. New England – 12 wins
2. New York – 9 wins
3. Miami – 8 wins
4. Buffalo – 6 wins

New England looks like they could get more support from their defense this year. Could be scary. The Jets D is a little overrated and I can’t say I see their offense taking a big step forward. Miami’s D is underrated and surely their offense has to take at least a baby step forward. Buffalo wins a few of the close games they lost last year, but they haven’t done enough to improve their team drastically.

AFC West

1. San Diego – 11wins
2. Kansas City – 8 wins
3. Denver – 7 wins
4. Oakland – 5 wins

San Diego once again is a preseason darling. Can they actually make good on the potential this year? K.C. overcomes a rocky start to claw back to .500. Oakland takes a step back under a rookie head coach. Denver takes a step up under a veteran coach.

NFC North:

1.Green Bay – 12 wins

2. Detroit – 9 wins

3 Chicago – 7 wins

4. Minnesota – 4 wins

Green Bay is the class of the league and could repeat if the o-line stays healthy. Detroit delights its' band wagon followers, but falls short of the wild card. Chicago puts up a fight, but falls apart late. McNabb is not rejuvenated in Minny.

NFC South:

1. New Orleans – 11 wins
2. Tampa Bay - 10 wins
3. Atlanta – 9 wins
4. Carolina – 4 wins

Best division in football. Brees regroups and the Saints reclaim the South. Tampa faded last year due to injury and step forward not backward in ’11. Atlanta was healthy in ’10. Laws of probability dictate that with many large men crashing into each other repeatedly, the result will be different in ’11. Carolina will be better on offense, but the Panthers still have a ways to go on defense.

NFC East:

1. Dallas – 11 wins
2. New York – 9 wins
3. Philladelphia – 8 wins
4. Washington – 6 wins

Romo leads the Boys back to the playoffs. The Giants piece together one of those “things looked so bad in the preseason how did they do that?” seasons. Philly’s O-line still struggles and their front 7 on D won’t hold together.

NFC West:

1. St. Louis – 9 wins
2. Arizona – 8 wins
3. San Francisco – 6 wins
4. Seattle – 3 wins

Bradford shines under McDaniels’ tutelage. Kolb still has a year of inconsistencies to work out of his system. The 49ers are building. Is Pete Carroll’s seat getting hot yet?

Playoffs:

AFC:

1. New England
2. Pittsburgh
3. San Diego
4. Houston
5. New York
6. Titans

Patriots cruise. Steelers run out of gas. Chargers choke again. Houston finally made it, but goes home early. The Jets don’t catch the Pats off guard this time. The Titans somehow squeak in, but don’t hang around long.

NFC:

1. Green Bay
2. Dallas
3. New Orleans
4. St. Louis
5. Tampa Bay
6. New York

Can Green Bay grind their way through the season to a dream match-up of Tom Brady vs. Aaron Rodgers? Dallas is my pick to stamp their ticket to Indy. The Saints peak early. The Rams can’t hang with the more seasoned teams. Tampa does some damage. The Giants can’t get out of the wild card round.

Super Bowl:

New England over Dallas

Bengals Talk

Season Outlook:

Cincinnati is a mess. Andy Dalton is clueless. The Bengals are the worst team in the league. The national media has your Cincinnati Bengals pigeon holed as the favorite in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. Yes, I’m always overly optimistic this time of year, but I don’t think it will be quite that bad. The preseason had rough patches, but it felt like a lot of correctable mistakes as opposed to total deficiencies in personnel. They won four games last year with the hardest schedule in the league. I don’t expect sledding to be quite so rough in 2011. I think they can win two division games, at least split with the AFC South, split with the NFC West, and split with Buffalo/Denver. That tallies up to 7 wins. That’s not where you want to be, but it’s a far cry from being on the clock for the 2012 draft come January 1. Everyone keeps saying, “Rookie quarterback. Rookie quarterback. Rookie quarterback.” Yes, there will be growing pains, but they’ll still get wins. Be patient. Keep your eyes on 2013.

Good Bye J-Jo

The start of free agency was a little deflating to Bengals fans with the loss of free agent cornerback Jonathan Joseph. Flat out, when Joseph was on the field, the defense was better. To me, the full impact didn’t sink in until I really started to think about it and realized he was the best player on the team. Compiled with the rest of the offseason, his departure meant their top offensive and defensive assets had walked out the door.

Minus Joseph, Leon Hall is the top corner and Nate Clements was brought in as a stop-gap replacement. Neither one of these guys are CB1 type of players that can cover elite receivers reliably. Maybe they are good enough to stabilize the back end of the D, but I think high-end passing games in the league will have their way with them. The lone hope is that the kids on the D-line emerge to take some of the pressure off, and Adam Jones comes back in week 7 competent.

Long term, this might actually be a blessing in disguise. Joseph hasn’t exactly been a durable player. It might be better to part ways now when there’s time to look for a replacement rather than endure his salary cap number if he has any major breakdowns in the back half of his career.

Kicking Off

Cleveland over Cincy in week 1 has been discussed as a lock for eliminator pools everywhere. Really? Cleveland is favored by 6.5. Really? Can anyone name a player on Cleveland’s defense? They’re starting the season with a rookie coach and brand new offensive and defensive schemes. Their LG is on IR, the right side of their O-line has been rebuilt again, and they’re starting two rookies on their D-line. Basically, everyone is basing Cleveland’s upside on two games last year under a totally different regime and two quarters of preseason where Colt McCoy moved the ball well. They have a good core on offense, but they are still at least two years away. I’m picking the upset, but I think it’ll be a close game.

Enjoy week 1 everyone. Go Bengals!

And Now We Wait...

Okay, it sounds like this lockout garbage might actually end soon so I’d better rouse myself from this sluggish labor dispute malaise and finish up my draft reaction article before the title is out of date. Don’t take this as if you are off the hook NFL. I’m still pissed at you for your five-month semi-public cat fight over the best way to divvy up the money you’ve swindled out of my pocket as if you were entitled to it all along. Anyway, here’s some draft talk…

Who Dey?

Having received widespread praise for their draft class, one question begs of the Bengals’ personnel department: who are these guys? Often maligned for ignoring character risks and having an inadequate scouting department, Mike Brown’s boys got two thumbs up for their efforts on draft day this year. I liked Cincy’s picks. I’m not doing cartwheels, but I think the war room deserves a nice golf clap. Most are viewing this as one of the top classes because they were able to take an awful situation (franchise QB checked out, best offensive player flaked out) and reload in one fell swoop. Yet, they’ve adopted a draft style that is so passive it’s hard to look at it and say, “Wow they really out-drafted everyone”. They dabbled in trades early in Marvin Lewis’ tenure, but lately this is their thing: sit back and wait. When they see something they like (like the certain red-headed quarterback they covet falling right into their laps), they think about making a move but ultimately they stand pat. They minimize risk by not investing multiple picks to trade up for one player and avoid the gamble of moving down to add more players of lesser value. Instead, they stay put, try to make solid contact, and only swing for the fences when someone else makes a mistake. Great drafts are made by picking prospects lower than they should have been drafted. Reaching is bad. Just-right talent to draft slot picks are okay. Acquiring higher-level prospects than the price you paid is where you make your money. This Bengals class gets a nod from me rather than a fist pump because I think most of their players were just-right picks. With a class that has no real steals but also has no major reaches, their draft grade starts at a “B.” When you look at what they were able to accomplish playing the first and second round picks off each other, the grade gets bumped up to a “B+.” Let’s break down each pick.

1-2 Punch

The first two picks have to be looked at together. I can harp all I want about how their head down, reactionary draft approach holds them back from a truly elite grade, but this is a scenario where it really works.

The A.J. Green pick by itself doesn’t stir the pot for me. I consider it the equivalent of an ugly win. Your team blows somebody out and you get excited. Your team does just enough to eek out a win and you just feel so-so about it. As top-ten WR picks go, Green isn’t in that Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson “there’s no way this guy could mess up” category, but I’d probably rate him towards the top of the next tier somewhere north of Braylon Edwards and Roy Williams territory (let’s hope he turns out better than those two knuckleheads). Green doesn’t boast quite the same deep playmaking hype that characterized Edwards’ draft profile, but he has better hands, mid-range receiving skills, and run-after-catch talent. How’s that for a team switching to a West Coast offense?

Green should fit in nicely. He is a legitimate top-five prospect. So, why couldn’t I get excited about the pick when it happened? I couldn’t really figure it out until about 20 hours later when the Bengals made their second round pick. At four, they still could have picked Patrick Peterson, a player some considered the best in the class. A player that if used correctly could have given the defense something it’s never had. It wouldn’t have been as safe, but could have been special. Instead they made a WR pick that essentially was being made to replace parts they already had in place. On top of that, what good is a top receiver prospect if they don’t have a legit QB?

As it turns out their strategy was to stay true to their board with the fourth pick and wait until the second round to consider QB where the value was more in line with this year’s talent level. It didn’t look good early on as quarterbacks were flying off the board in the top half of the first round. By the twelfth pick, the only top tier QB prospects left were Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick (picture Marvin Lewis sweating bullets). If they missed out on those two, they would have had to wait a round or two for Ryan Mallet or Ricky Stanzi, and it would have been open season on Mike Brown and the Bengals QB situation. Yet, the picks kept ticking by and Dalton was still on the board. I’m sure there were some tense moments when Seattle was on the clock, but the Seahawks decided they had to have Alabama guard James Carpenter. No one traded back into round one, Buffalo passed at the top of round two, and Cincy didn’t waste much time claiming Dalton with the third pick in the second round.

If you believe all of the “we got the guy we wanted all along” rhetoric (which I do), they almost couldn’t have scripted it any better. In today’s ultra-QB-centric league, the tendency is to err on the side of caution when acquiring a future signal caller and fill in the blanks later. Carolina, Tennessee, and Minnesota had cloudy quarterback pictures going into the draft. When push came to shove, all three teams got jittery and reached for targeted players rather than risk missing out on checking their box for quarterback of the future with one of this years top QB’s. By standing by their draft board, the Bengals now have what I thought was so special about Philadelphia’s offense when Kevin Kolb got promoted heading into last year: a young energetic unit brimming with talent poised to blossom at the same time. It could take two to three years, but with Green and Simpson working the sidelines, Shipley and Caldwell manning the slot, and Gresham threatening the seam, they just might have stumbled onto something lethal. If Andre Smith doesn’t bottom out, I feel good about their OT’s. All that’s left is to keep funneling RB’s and interior lineman into the pipeline. In a few years, Baltimore will be realizing Joe Flacco doesn’t have what it takes, Ben Roethlisburger will be shopping for a ranch house because he is no longer capable of going up and down stairs, and the Bengals young O will be ready to show the league what it’s got. Okay, let’s get through season one before we start crowning Dalton the king of the North, but I definitely feel optimistic about the future.

3.

Future offensive leadership secured, Cincy continued methodically checking off their needs from the third round on. Prior to the draft, I started dreaming up scenarios where Von Miller could have fallen to four with the hopes of adding a sideline to sideline strong-side linebacker athletic enough to hold up in coverage, big enough to hold the point of attack, and quick enough to blitz. Dontay Moch is more or less a poor man’s Miller. He has some good film where he shows off his speed and pursuit, but it is against WAC competition. The fantasy of drafting Miller was nice because he would have plugged right in. Moch is going to need some time to catch his football speed up to his raw athleticism (4.4 forty yard dash). I’m excited about the potential, but it makes me nervous. One of the Bengals’ many struggles has been to develop guys like this. Nonetheless, worst-case scenario they have a 250 lb linebacker they can send screaming down the field on special teams for the next few years.

4.

Based on the 2010 season, I had guard as the Bengals’ top offseason need, (Yes, I was still in denial thinking the Carson Palmer divorce wasn’t official and QB was not a need). Heading into day three of the draft, only one of the top five guards was still on the board. I was crossing my fingers for a Clint Boling pick, and for once the Bengals war room did not ignore my mental pleas. I thought this was the one pick where they really got a bargain. Boling has experience at positions all along the line and will fit right in next to Andrew Whitworth.

5.

Needing a body that can stay healthy, infusing some young blood at safety was a must. This pick could almost be lumped together with the Moch pick: unique athletic talent with raw skills that might or might not translate to the NFL but will definitely be an intriguing addition to special teams. When was the last time you saw a 6’4” safety?

6.

Robert Whalen seems like exactly what you want out of sixth round pick. The go-to receiver on a good team, he appears to be a smart blue-collar player (if you can call a Stanford guy blue-collar) that will slot right into the bottom of the depth chart. If they’re really lucky, he turns into a bigger contributor as a possession receiver long-term.

7a.

Cincy used the first of their two seventh round picks to select Korey Lindsey from Southern Illinois. A productive small-school prospect, Lindsey was riding back-to-back All-American seasons to what some (including Gil Brandt) were calling a third round grade. However, two hamstring injuries scuttled his draft stock and the Bengals might have picked up somewhat of a bargain with the 207^th pick. He will be a developmental project, but with Adam Jones’ career on ice and Jonathan Joseph heading into free agency he might even be able to challenge for playing time in some fashion as early as this year.

7b.

Going into the draft I was hoping the Bengals would land a small scat back type to provide more of an outside threat on third downs than they get from a player like Brian Leonard. Yes, Bernard Scott sort of fits that bill, but I think despite being a little light, Scott actually has a chance to transition into every down back territory.

Running back is where I think the Bengals war room missed a little bit of an opportunity as day three played out. They had to take Boling at the top of the fourth. I have no problem with that. Unfortunately, seven running backs were taken before they made their next pick including Kendal Hunter (aka EXACTLY what they need) and Johnny White (one pick before they were on the clock in the fifth), a player ESPN’s Todd McShay raved about pre-draft as one of the most underrated players in the draft. With the talent pool whittled down, the Bengals elected to draft a safety and hold out for a bigger bargain before biting on one of the remaining RB’s. Two more guys who would have been solid fits for what they need, Jacquizz Rodgers and Dion Lewis, both came off the board in the fifth. Cincy again passed in the sixth and ultimately picked from what was left in the seventh.

This is where the Bengals style hurts them and stockpiling picks like New England and Philadelphia comes in handy. If there was someone they really felt good about, they could have moved back into the fourth when the value was right instead of helplessly watching while the RB’s went flying off the board one by one. I’m not going to pretend to know all that much about Jay Finley. He’s Baylor’s all-time leading rusher and led the Big-12 in rushing touchdowns last year in conference play. He very well may blossom into a better pro than he’s being projected, but it really feels like they settled for a lesser prospect than they could have taken if they had been more creative.

Wrap-up:

The Bengals crossed off their top four needs with their first four picks and then used the balance of the draft to bring in developmental talent at the right positions to freshen up the back half of the roster. If I had to nit pick, I’d question whether Moch is going to be able to contribute soon enough. This defense needs two major things: 1. A star (outside of Patrick Peterson, they weren’t going to get that in this draft anyway), and 2. A linebacker to stabilize the middle level of a unit that gives up way too many big running plays. Stay tuned for free agency. Even with holes left to plug on defense, the offense that was in shambles pre-draft now has direction, and firey players like Moch, Sands, and Whalen should upgrade special teams. The league these days is about building windows of opportunity. The important takeaway from this draft is that Cincinnati now has a window. It might not open right away, but the roster at least now appears to be in sync to have some sort of coming of age season X years in the future. It’s unfortunate to give up on the old window so soon when it seemed like there should be a few years of opportunity left. Palmer drudged the franchise out of a two-decade slump and displayed nothing but outstanding character while doing it. To see it all come to a screeching halt because a few drunken fans decided to cuss him out in front of his family and throw garbage on his lawn is disappointing. Regardless, the page has turned and the franchise now has a new face. He appears to be a suitable replacement capable of growing up on the job. The character is there. The pedigree is there. The supporting cast is there. The pieces are in place, and now we wait.

Mock Draft At Last!

It’s crunch time - time to take my annual swing at reading the minds of NFL coaches and GM’s across the league. More than any year I can remember, the theme for the 2011 draft is uncertainty. There is no consensus number one overall pick. There are eleven top ten level prospects and probably another ten to twelve mid round one guys. Beyond that, there isn’t much separating the next 30 to 40 players. Throw in the lack of free agency and the 2011 draft is bound to be unpredictable. Then again, Al Davis doesn’t have a pick in the first round to Raider everyone’s mock drafts so maybe we stand a chance. Probably not though, Jacksonville and Buffalo both have enough of an “out in left field” draft resume to more than carry the torch without Oakland’s help. Without further adieu:

1. Carolina:
The number one overall pick is rarely this wide open, but when you really boil it down, Carolina could go three directions:
1. Draft the top overall player: CB Patrick Peterson
2. Draft their top need: DT Marcell Dareus
3. Draft a cornerstone to build around: top quarterback on their board.
The key here is picking a player to build around. They squandered away their second round pick last year so they need a lot of mileage from the first player they take. Taking a cornerback doesn’t fit that bill, and Dareus has an injury history and hasn’t proven he can be a full time player. That leaves the QBs. Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert have jostled back and forth throughout this process. If it were me, I’d go for the nice solid base hit with Gabbert. (Can you imagine saying that six months ago, “I think the Panthers should play it safe with the number one pick and take Gabbert.”?) Panthers GM Marty Hurney on the other hand is more prone to swinging for the fences.
The Pick: Cam Newton, QB Auburn

2. Denver:
The Broncos are in a good spot. They have to strengthen their defensive line and they have to get younger in the secondary. They will have the freedom to go either way here. There are pictures of Dareus that frighten me. He looks more like a pile of stones than a man. Peterson is an athletic freak. Initially, I thought Dareus was more of a five to ten guy instead of top five, but the more I read about his intense effort and solid character he’s climbed up the ladder. DTs are more bust prone and Dareus has durability flags, but the position priority argument holds here. You can build an air-tight secondary, but it doesn’t do you any good if you can’t at least hold serve in the trenches.
The Pick: Marcell Dareus, DT Alabama

3. Buffalo:
Until early April when everyone realized how hard the Panthers were sniffing around Newton, it seemed like the Auburn QB would be Buffalo bound. There’s an outside shot, Carolina trying to entice the Bills into making an offer, but I don’t think it’s very likely a deal will happen. Everyone is slotting Von Miller here as an instant pass rush injection into the Buffalo defense, but if they draft Miller looking for sacks I think they’ll be disappointed. Let’s pretend the Bills’ decision makers agree. With Newton off the board, do they default to Gabbert? I think they’d opt to roll the dice with their current QB, Ryan Fitzpatrick. Peterson is the guy to watch out for here. Buffalo isn’t shy about ignoring glaring needs in favor of pursuing shiny objects (cough...C.J. Spiller), and if Peterson has anything it’s flash..
The Pick: Patrick Peterson, CB LSU

4. The Cincinnati Bengals:
If Gabbert is still on the board, this is somewhat of a fork-in-the-road pick for the Bengals. Draft a potential franchise QB and start a new era or take one of the elite players in the class and continue the game of chicken with Carson Palmer. Palmer actually isn’t a bad comparison for Gabbert. Imagine if Palmer hadn’t returned for his senior season and you had to guess what kind of player he was going to be. He seems solid. He can make all the throws. By all accounts he’s brimming with character and leadership. I picture Gabbert having a similar career: above average, multiple pro-bowls, never quite in the top tier of QBs. I wouldn’t be upset if they picked Gabbert. It’s better than potentially drifting rudderless for the next five years. It’s just too bad they might have to take the plunge a year or two before they’re ready.

The most common projection for the fourth pick is Georgia wide receiver A.J. Green. Analysts cite WR as one of the Bengals’ top needs under the assumption that the T.Ocho tandem is going to be taking their sideshow elsewhere next year. While I wouldn’t close the book on Chad Johnson’s career in Cincinnati yet, it does seem like bringing in Green would be a nice way to hit the reset button for the receiving corps without a major disruption to the offense. At the same time, if they pass on Green it’s not the end of the world. There may be only two definite first round receiver prospects, but the depth in the second and third rounds is outstanding. Leonard Hankerson (Miami), Tandon Doss (Indiana), Greg Little (North Carolina), Randall Cobb (Kentucky), Jonathan Baldwin (Pittsburgh), Titus Young (Boise State), Torrey Smith (Marylyand), Edmond Gates (Albilene Christian). Big schools, small schools. Tall guys, short guys. Fast guys, quick guys. If they wait, there will be more question marks, but they should be able find whatever type of receiver they are looking for.

What’s the alternative? In this scenario, Patrick Peterson is off the board. The Bengals defensive line coach was seen recently sniffing around Nick Fairley in Alabama. Bringing in a more durable masher to strengthen the interior defensive line and enhance the young pass rushers wouldn’t be a bad option. However, I’m hoping for Von Miller. Yes, I have voiced concerns about Miller, but everyone has him pigeon holed as a 3-4 OLB. I don’t see it. I’m not sure he’s physical enough to square off with OTs one on one, but if you throw him behind a four man line he should be able to hold the point of attack. He’s fast enough to drop into coverage and go sideline to sideline, and he can rush the QB. That considered, strong side linebacker is actually one of the Bengals’ top needs. If they let veteran MLB Dhani Jones walk, they’ll consider shifting Rey Maualuga to the middle in some combination with Roderick Muckleroy. That should be adequate, but they don’t have a great contingency plan for the outside. This defense is prone to giving up big plays against the run. I don’t think that is going to change unless they upgrade the linebacking corps somehow. Maualuga and Keith Rivers/Brandon Johnson make up a solid group, but they will be better players if they’re not asked to be the best linebacker on the field. Miller would upgrade all three positions and provide the x-factor in blitz packages that has been missing.

With Peterson, Miller, Green, Fairley (and even Gabbert) on the board, it almost seems as if the Bengals would be hard-pressed to mess this pick up...which is why I’m predicting they will trade down. I see Washington sitting there at ten and this feels a lot like the Mark Sanchez situation in 2009. You knew he would be there in the five or six range, you didn’t think anyone there would take him, but it just seemed like that’s where he was going to go. Here, you have teams at five, seven, and eight all likely to pull the trigger on Gabbert, and then there’s Washington and Minnesota at 10 and 12 waiting to trade up. It would be an interesting move. They should still have a crack at a pretty good player at 10, and they’d have an extra early second round pick to take their quarterback if he’s there and still tap into the solid crop of second round guard talent. It could work, but I get nervous every time the Bengals try to get cute in the draft (why would we take Steven Jackson when we could trade down and draft Chris Perry?). Regardless, strap in Bengals fans - we’re going for a ride. Washington trades up for Gabbert, and Cincy drops down to number 10. Who will they target? Stay tuned.
The Pick: Blaine Gabbert, QB Missouri

5. Arizona:
With Gabbert swiped right from under their nose, the Cardinals should turn to defense. Analysts will immediately anoint Miller as Arizona’s pass rushing savior. Like I said before, I think Miller would be better off getting rescued by a 4-3 team that can give him better protection and sic him on opposing QB’s more liberally. Despite my edict against drafting 3-4 DE’s early, Nick Fairley would be a better fit here. Having someone with that size/speed combo would be an interesting asset on the edge. Regardless of what this lowly blogger thinks, Miller gets miscast here like Morgan Freeman trying to play Nelson Mandela.
The Pick: Von Miller, OLB Texas A&M

6. Cleveland:
Arizona picks Miller and Cleveland rejoices. Widely considered the third or fourth best player in the class, A.J. Green is a bargain at six. Filling D-line needs is an option, but plugging in a true number one WR is much more beneficial. Their current receivers will be much more effective as WR 2’s and WR 3’s. Colt McCoy will develop faster. Pressure will be relieved off the right side of that o-line. Find a fresh face at RG and/or RT and they’re in business.
The Pick: A.J. Green Georgia

7. San Francisco:
The Niners need a QB and upgrades all over their defense. Peterson is the popular projection but for him to fall to seven would be an upset in my book. Instead San Fran gambles in hopes of hoodwinking a different elite defensive playmaker. Robert Quinn could have been top five but the uncertainty of sitting out a year is enough to drop him to the 49ers.
The Pick: Robert Quinn, OLB/DE North Carolina

8. Tennessee:
I thought they stole Derrick Morgan last year. They could pull another heist if they go with Da’Quan Bowers. However, DT is the bigger need and the off-season hiring of Auburn’s defensive line coach should sway them in a different direction. I’d like to see Miller as a 4-3 LB and Fairley as a 3-4 DE but it looks like I’m going to be disappointed.
The Pick: Nick Fairley, DT Auburn

9. Dallas:
Their secondary was atrocious last year. I don’t know how they stay away from Prince Amukamara, but it looks like they will. OT Tyron Smith had been the popular projection here until recently when talks started to surface of teams wanting to trade up for Julio Jones. I don’t see Jerry Jones trading down. DE would be nice but only if they get a crack at Fairley.
The Pick: Tyron Smith, OT USC

10. Washington: No wait…CINCINNATI!
In this scenario, the Redskins have traded up for their QB and the Bengals are back on the clock. Jones is the most likely choice. Hearing about how he complements his elite receiving skills with aggressive downfield blocking, I get the feeling Marvin Lewis prefers Jones over Green anyway. Besides, you can never have too many top ten draft picks with cracked bones in their feet. If he shakes the durability issues though, ten is great value for Jones. A few minutes of watching him vs. Patrick Peterson in last year’s Alabama/LSU game and I was sold. The guy can get open. Think Roddy White. If Jones is off the board, Bowers or Amukamara would make a decent back-up plan even if they wouldn’t fill as strong of a roster need.
The Pick: Julio Jones, WR Alabama

11. Houston:
With Wade Phillips on board, the Texans are in the market for 3-4 defensive pieces. OLB Aldon Smith will get mentioned, but Amukamara is the best player available. To overtake Indy in the division, they need to beef up a secondary that has annually been one of the worst in the league.
The Pick: Prince Amukamara, CB Nebraska

12. Minnesota:
The Vikings defense has gone stale. What better than a top-five talent, once a candidate for the number one overall pick, to spice things up a bit. Some are predicting Bowers will fall as far as 20 due to concerns with the knee, but I think 12 is his floor.
The Pick: Da’Quan Bowers, DE Clemson

13. Detroit:
The Lions and the draft have a contentious relationship. From epic bust draft picks to the recent blurb in Sports Illustrated on how the Lions sent out an email intended for NFL offices detailing their pre-draft player visit schedule that instead went to the entire league, they’ve had a rough go of it. They would love Amukamara or T. Smith here but with those two gone, I think they’ll look elsewhere position-wise rather than reaching deeper into the CB or OT crops. When you start thinking about the best player available, J.J. Watt comes to mind. He had a monster combine placing near the top for his position in most speed and quickness drills despite weighing in at 290 lbs. He just seems like a player head coach Jim Bates would gravitate towards.
The Pick: J.J. Watt, DE Wisconsin

14. St. Louis:
All hopes of lucking into Julio Jones are gone and the Rams aren’t in a position to squander away picks trying to trade up. Past WR, the Rams should look for upgrades just about everywhere else (besides QB and RB). D-line is still the meat of the value here and coach Steve Spagnuolo knows the importance of being strong up front. I think Muhammad Wilkerson gets the nod. The buzz on him has been cooling and analysts will scratch their heads and wonder if Corey Liuget would have made more sense. In the end, Wilkerson has the higher ceiling.
The Pick: Muhammad Wilkerson, DT Temple

15. Miami:
Despite the predictions of dozens of mock drafts the past few months, people are starting to come to the realization that Miami probably won’t draft Mark Ingram. Without much skill position talent, Miami opts to beef up the o-line. Buoyed by the Pro Bowl campaign last year from his brother, top interior line prospect Mike Pouncey comes off the board here.
The Pick: Mike Pouncey, G/C Florida

16. Jacksonville:
The Jaguars have invested heavily in DEs but have little to show for it. They might as well take another crack at it here. Having played 3-4 DE at Cal., a lot of people slot Cameron Jordan in the same system in the pros. His body looks like it would need to fill in some for that, but he’s built just right to hold down the edge in a 4-3.
The Pick: Cameron Jordan, DE California

17. New England:
In yet another pick where everyone goes, “man why didn’t anyone else take him,” the Patriots could leave us all shaking our heads again here. Aldon Smith is raw but he might be the kind of edge rusher that fills a role that New England has been missing the last few years. The o-line needs new blood, but Smith is too enticing.
The Pick: Aldon Smith, OLB/DE Missouri

18. San Diego:
D-FENSE…D-FENSE…The onslaught continues. This will make 12 out of 18 picks on the defensive side of the ball. The Chargers will mull over a DE here, but they’ll be forced to try to fill the void left by Shawne Merriman’s flameout and Larry English’s lackluster development. Justin Houston is a tweener, but I’m leaning more towards considering him an outside linebacker. I don’t know how much he’ll help in 2011, but the upside is there.
The Pick: Justin Houston, OLB/DE Georgia

19. N.Y. Giants:
The Giants’ linebacker need can’t really be addressed here. DT depth is an option with Liuget still on the board, but if the next tier of OTs last this long, the run starts here. Cracks have formed in their offensive line. If they don’t patch it up now, they might be sorry in a year. Anthony Castonzo isn’t going to dominate the league, but he should develop into a reliable tackle that will fit right in with the Giants’ current crew.
The Pick: Anthony Castonzo, OT Boston College

20. Tampa Bay:
Offensive line could be the sleeper pick in this slot, but they probably opt to continue stocking that defense with young talent. Ryan Kerrigan isn’t the obvious choice but a high-motor guy with a penchant for disrupting offensive flow will be beneficial for the Buccaneers. Raheem Morris will be pleased.
The Pick: Ryan Kerrigan, DE Purdue

21. Kansas City:
The Chiefs are another franchise looking to continue the positive momentum from 2010. This is an opportunity for them to finally finish rebuilding their offensive line. Gabe Carimi should plug into the right side and diversify one of the league’s top rushing attacks.
The Pick: Gabe Carimi, OT Wisconsin

22. Indianapolis:
Injuries depleted their roster on both sides of the ball in 2010, but an erratic offensive line was their true weakness. They’ve had some uncharacteristic draft misses the past few years with o-line picks, but that won’t stop them from taking another crack at it here. Nate Solder has all the physical tools, but will it translate to the field? The back quarter of Peyton Manning’s career will be wasted if they don’t get some stability up front. Solder is worth the gamble.
The Pick: Nate Solder, OT Colorado

23. Philadelphia:
For weeks, analysts have anchored down Jimmy Smith’s draft stock with character concerns. I figured closer to draft time, more and more league scouting opinions would leak and talks of Smith dropping into the second round would go away. Sure enough, a week before the draft all of a sudden 23 is the worst case scenario. He isn’t that much of a drop off from Peterson and Amukamara, and the off the field problems occurred early in his college career. Philly will be lucky if he falls to them.
The Pick: Jimmy Smith, CB Colorado

24. New Orleans:
The Saints have options with this pick if they want to fill their defensive end need, but their cupboard is bare at outside linebacker. Akeem Ayers hasn’t wowed people in workouts, but his on-field production is good enough to warrant taking him here. It reminds me of Atlanta’s Sean Weatherspoon pick last year, and that worked out just fine.
The Pick: Akeem Ayers, OLB UCLA

25. Seattle:
If Seattle is on the clock and the third quarterback hasn’t been taken yet, things could get very interesting in the last eight picks on Thursday night. The Seahawks will get a few phone calls and could certainly take a quarterback themselves. For some reason, I think cooler heads prevail and they opt for a value pick. However, I wouldn’t feel quite right if I predicted Pete Carrol’s pick to be totally logical. They ignore the lineman available and surprise some people with a running back pick.
The Pick: Mark Ingram, RB Alabama

26. Baltimore:
The Ravens are ready to trade back until Liuget falls right into their laps. He drops because he doesn’t seem like a sexy pick, but he is an above average lineman with the versatility to play multiple positions. He is the kind of player that G.M. Ozzie Newsome seems to accumulate.
The Pick: Corey Liuget, DT Illinois

27. Atlanta:
The Falcons need defensive end production and John Abraham isn’t getting any younger. Adrian Clayborn is available because of physical question marks, but the value at a high need position is too much for Atlanta to pass up.
The Pick: Adrian Clayborn, DE Iowa

28. New England:
The Patriots will milk this one to the wire as teams continue to try to trade up. In the end, they need a contingency for the impending Logan Mankins divorce. Danny Watkins is a hard-nosed prospect who leads the solid group of five guards likely to be gone by the end of round 2.
The Pick: Danny Watkins, OG Baylor

29. Chicago:
The Bears are in a tight spot because the offensive line value has dried up and there isn’t another obvious pick for them on the board. Luckily, somebody loves Jake Locker and wants to move up. The Bears can move back ten slots to try to land somebody like Derek Sherrod (Mississippi).
The Pick: Jake Locker, QB Washington

30. N.Y. Jets:
Phil Taylor has been slotted here quite a bit the last few months. The Jets need a monster for the middle of their D, but Taylor just doesn’t seem like a first rounder. If they decide to pass, they’ll still be looking for a new member for their front seven. Brooks Reed has become a hot name the past week. An intense hard-working player with pass rush skills, Reed is a good fit for a defense that had to work too hard last year to generate QB pressure.
The Pick: Brooks Reed, OLB/DE Arizona

31. Pittsburgh:
For the Steelers, the big needs are at O-line and cornerback. Sherrod has been a late riser, but I think it’s finally time for Pittsburgh to take the plunge and use a top pick on a corner. Aaron Williams reminds me of a Pittsburgh corner: nothing flashy, but he gets the job done. If he doesn’t work out, some are projecting he could move to safety.
The Pick: Aaron Williams, CB Texas

32. Green Bay:
The Packers should maintain their receiving corps and look for a backfield weapon, but those needs can wait. They could use a left tackle, but I’m still not biting on Sherrod. Injuries and off the field issues have left them thin at defensive end. They need to maintain a line that can protect Clay Matthews. Cameron Heyward has some injury concerns, but he squeaks into the first round on the strength of his Sugar Bowl performance.
The Pick: Cameron Heyward, DE Ohio State

2011 Draft: For Starters

A black cloud of labor dispute looms over the NFL, but never fear, draft season will take place rain or shine. The Senior Bowl is complete, the Combine is gearing up, and pro days are right around the corner. It won’t be totally business as usual however as the escalating labor dispute between the owners and the players could significantly change draft dynamics and strategies. Once the current collective bargaining agreement expires on March 4, no player trades can be made. Perhaps the bigger impact will be the absence of free agency. Unable to shop around for free agents, coaches and GM’s won’t get their first opportunity to fill holes until the draft. At a glance you might think this will force teams to draft more for need than value, but it will likely have the opposite effect. Free agency might be late, it might be abbreviated, but it will happen eventually. With a less than clear picture of what 2011 rosters will look like, I think team decision makers are more likely to take the best players available and sort out the details later. Here’s a peek at the top ten landscape:

No Number 1?:

Ever since Andrew Luck took his name out of the ring, the 2011 draft class has been without an elite prospect. There is solid group of four or five players in the top tier, but the class lacks a no-brainer franchise quarterback or a position player that will immediately challenge for all-pro status. The top two candidates to go number 1 right now are Auburn DT Nick Fairley and Clemson DE Da’Quan Bowers. There was some over reaction to Fairley’s National Championship performance. Some analysts were throwing around names like Suh and Sapp for comparisons, but Fairley isn’t quite in that category. When those guys left school they were NFL players playing in college. Fairley is a great college player that will need to make the transition to the pros. I’d liken him closer to what I thought of Glenn Dorsey when he entered the league. That’s not to say Fairley’s career will turn out to be as ordinary as Dorsey’s has been, but I’d put them on the same starting plane. That being said, I give Fairley the nod right now. The Panthers are a lot worse off at DT than DE. I think you’d be hard pressed to come up with a team right now with less interior defensive line talent.

Next in Line in Denver?:

LSU CB Patrick Peterson will come into play here, but the Broncos will have trouble straying away from the defensive line. I’m not even going to pretend to know where the personnel pieces will land when new coach John Fox more than likely blows up the present scheme and switches Denver back to a 4-3, but based one this unit’s 2010 performance (31^st in the league in rushing yards against) they need new players. The return of injured star sack-man Elvis Dumervil will help the pass rush, but a 250 lb DE probably won’t help out the rush defense.

Bowers is a high-end prospect talented enough to build around. Some people gripe about his technique, but when you watch him he plays with high intensity, has great instincts (reacts to the ball well, sniffs out the play without thinking too much about it), and has the athletic ability to excel versus the run and the pass at the next level. So what if he plays a little too upright at times - John Fox can fix that.

To QB or not to QB?:

Will Buffalo do any more than flirt with taking a quarterback here? Some people are touting Missouri QB Blaine Gabbert as a candidate for the Bills. In the end, I don’t think Gabbert will be able to hold off Cam Newton as the top QB taken. I’ll get more into that later. For right now, let’s say the Bills decide not to pull the trigger on either one. Marcell Dareus (DT, Alabama) is another name that has come up for his potential as a 3-4 DE, but I don’t think he’s top 5 talent. (Besides, why draft a 3-4 DE in the top 5? That’s what rounds 3 through 7 are for.) This pick should be the most talented player in the class: Patrick Peterson. He’s big, he’s fast, and he has amazing ball skills. I would lobby for him in the top two, but D-linemen are more important than DB’s for rebuilding teams (DE’s and DT’s in 4-3 systems, OLB’s and NT’s in 3-4 defenses).

Sitting Pretty:

Here we are again. After a one year hiatus, it’s back to the top of the draft for Bengaldom. Before we get into draft prospects, let’s delve into what thus far has been an eventful off-season.

Marvin’s New Lieutenant:

First, the good news: I like the Jay Gruden hire. The offense needs a breath of fresh air. Make no mistake, this is a gamble. In five years we’ll probably be cursing the guy’s name and lumping him together with David Shula. Yet, for right now I’m optimistic that this was the right move and maybe Marvin Lewis has finally found the right coaching combination with the fourth and fifth coordinators of his tenure.

Carson Conundrum:

Maybe I should have seen it coming, but I was more or less blindsided by Carson Palmer waving the white flag on being the team’s franchise quarterback. His character and attitude have been a pillar for the organization throughout his career. Take that away and all of a sudden I start to wonder about things behind the scenes.

What it all means is unclear. The Bengals can hope Palmer is bluffing and intrigued enough by the infusion of new offensive blood into the team to give it one more shot, or they can try to strike a deal. Strangely, there are enough desperate teams at the free agent saloon drowning their sorrows fretting over their quarterback woes that even a player coming off a 20 interception season that comes struttin’ through the door doesn’t look half bad. The key would be to make a trade that wouldn’t send the team into a five year tailspin. That would mean going in one of two directions. Acquire a stop-gap in the deal, and draft a QB. Think Jason Campbell or Alex Smith in trades. Better yet, how about West Coast lifers Matt Hasselbeck or Donovan McNabb in free agency to mentor Newton or Gabbert. If they pass on a QB early, players like Andy Dalton (TCU) or Colin Kaepernick (Nevada) are potential later round targets. Alternatively, why not just trade for their next quarterback? Kevin Kolb anyone? Yes, that trade is impossible. Or is it? How about a three team deal? Cincy sends Carson Palmer to the 49ers, the Bengals land Kolb, and the Eagles acquire two early second round draft picks. The Bengals wind up with a young quarterback who is ready to start and has been groomed in a West Coast system (similar to the one they’ll be running next year). The 49ers get a veteran QB that can buy rookie coach Jim Harbaugh 2 to 4 years to get organized. The Eagles, said to be looking for a first and a third in exchange for Kolb, end up with two high second rounders. The Palmer family gets to move back to California. Kevin Kolb gets his shot to start. Everybody wins right? Oh yeah, the most stubborn man alive has vowed not to trade Palmer. And the Eagles need to keep Kolb as insurance for their crash-test-dummy superstar starting quarterback. And Harbaugh is already trying to butter up the fan base for the shock of bringing Alex Smith back for another year. And oh yeah, unless the players union and the owners give up their game of labor dispute chicken prior to the draft, no trades can happen anyway. It’s unfortunate because it makes SO much sense, but it looks like we are stuck with trying to avoid a messy divorce from Carson Palmer as our greatest hope.

Draft Outlook:

If you look past the possibility that Palmer might walk out the door without a viable replacement in place, the Bengals are actually in pretty good shape. For simplicity, let’s just leave out that nightmarish scenario for now. By my count there are four high-end prospects in this draft, and the Bengals conveniently have fourth pick. If Buffalo takes a quarterback, they’ll even have two of the four to pick from. What position are they likely to target? I think they have flexibility there (unless they are forced to take a quarterback). Their top need is guard, but that is irrelevant in the first round unless they trade down about fifteen slots. Past that, the lack of free agency prior to the draft takes effect and you start to lose focus. They need a defensive playmaker, a more durable safety, depth at strong side linebacker, a corner if they lose Johnathan Joseph, a receiver if they lose Chad Johnson, a running back if they lose Cedric Benson, and an OT if Andre Smith can’t get healthy. It sounds like a lot, but there aren’t a lot of dire needs there. Like I said, I think the strategy has to be draft the best players available more than you ever have before and then go after what you’re missing in free agency when it eventually happens.

The Bengals don’t really need Fairley, but he would be an upgrade over Tank Johnson and would round out the DT rotation in a division where you have to be strong up front. He might not be the defensive stud they crave, but having him in the middle certainly wouldn’t hurt the chances of Carlos Dunlap or Michael Johnson developing into that guy.

Bowers on the other hand does have some star potential. At the least, he would be just another weapon they can plug in. The NY Giants have proven it over and over again: you can never have too many pass rushers.

Peterson is intriguing. I think he has the greatest difference-making potential of the three, and the Bengals are the first team in the draft order with good enough talent up front to take advantage of it. He would be a nice insurance policy if they can’t resign Joseph, but he is still a good fit regardless because of his versatility. I say move him to safety and he has a chance to redefine the position at a time when arguably the two best safeties of all time (Polamalu and Reed) are still active players. He has the ball skills to terrorize QB’s in center field. He has the speed to blanket slot men. They could blitz him from the edge. They could blitz him up the middle. If he’s there, I’d love to see them pull the trigger.

If Peterson isn’t available and they think they are set on the D-line, the other major candidate is Georgia WR A.J. Green. Mock draft after mock draft have penciled Green in to Cincinnati assuming Chad Johnson is out the door, and I can’t say that I’d disagree with that line of thinking. Green and Simpson as outside receivers with Shipley and Caldwell as slot men seems like a nice well-rounded receiving corps to build on.

The wild card of course is Newton. The guy is dialed in and gaining momentum fast. I don’t really like him as a player and I’m even starting to have second thoughts as to whether the Bengals should pass on him. I just hope Buffalo snatches him up and makes the decision easy.

Best of the Rest:

Prince Amukamara (CB, Nebraska) gets an honorable mention for the group of top prospects and is at the front of the next tier down.

Marcell Dareus (DT, Alabama) joins him as a mauler with the ability to go 4-3 DT or 3-4 DE.

Texas A&M’s Von Miller and UNC’s Robert Quinn are hybrid DE’s that will most likely be targeted as 3-4 OLB’s. Some people are hyping Miller as high as number 3 to Buffalo, but I don’t see it. He has a quick first step, but watching some of his games, that’s his only pass rush move: run around the OT. He creates a massive lane for the quarterback to scramble through and gets smothered when he tries to go inside. It’s Aaron Maybin (two years in, still looking for his first NFL sack) all over again. Miller has more character and will be better in coverage and against the run than Maybin, but I don’t see his knack for pestering QB’s translating to the NFL. He actually looks like a 4-3 strong side linebacker more than anything else.

Quinn is coming off a year long NCAA suspension and no one is really sure what kind of player he’ll be right away. People drool over his athleticism, but I’m not sure if he’ll be physical enough to hold up the edge of a defense at the next level. Gaines Adams anyone? He seems like a 3-4 prospect, but he might actually be better off in a 4-3 with a team that likes undersized defensive ends.

Despite where they rank out as prospects, the top ten will likely be rounded out by the two quarterbacks. The battle for top QB will be an interesting race. Both players have to learn how to play outside of the spread offense. Both players have freakish size. Newton has more collegiate pelts on the wall and a slightly higher ceiling while Gabbert has fewer character questions. Gabbert makes me think of Matthew Stafford with more mobility, but a slightly lesser arm, less pedigree, and without the experience under center. Realistically, Gabbert probably grades out as a mid first round guy. However, in a draft that is a logjam of “very good” players with most of the teams picking early starved for QB talent, I’d be surprised if he makes it out of the top ten. Newton, on the other hand, is a shooting star. He has some poor character flags from early in his college career, but he has said and done all the right things ever since. A lackluster National Championship game slowed his momentum, but one unconventional media-only workout to display his NFL preparation efforts and he’s right back on track to climb up the draft ladder. He’s working with a QB coach six days a week and receiving tutelage from Hall of Fame quarterback Warren Moon. He has to convince teams he is more Josh Freeman than Vince Young and he’s doing a great job. Vince Young liked to tell people how good he was going to be. Cam Newton is talking about what he’s going to do to be good. Stay tuned.

With the fifth pick, Miller is getting some play, but I don’t see how the Cardinals can get away from taking a quarterback unless Newton is gone and they don’t like the value of Gabbert. Cleveland is sitting at six, hoping for Buffalo or Cincy to take a QB so they can get a crack at Green, the one glaring missing piece to their offensive puzzle (a part of me will cringe if the Bengals don’t pick Green knowing that he’ll fall right into Cleveland’s lap). The 49ers would be well served with a value pick of either Amukamara or Dareus. The Titans need a QB at eight and go for the Gabbert gamble while Dallas sits at nine and takes whoever San Francisco passes up. Washington feels left out in the cold and takes Miller as a value pick.

That’s all for now. Stay tuned for a full mock prior to draft day.

Playoff Madness

Playoff madness! All of the prognosticators speculating spastically has driven me crazy enough to wake up from blog hibernation! Playoff season kicks off today, and despite complaints about the Seahawks, top to bottom, the field seems to be as level this year as any other year I can remember. Let’s break it down.

Public opinion has penciled in the Saints and Ravens to round two, but personally, I think one of the home dogs are going to pull off the upset. The banged up Saints limping into one of the top home-field-advantage stadiums in the league against a team that everyone has written off might not be as clear cut as everyone thinks. I think the first half will be tight. In the end, Sean Payton is too good to be out-dueled by an inferior team in a win-or-go-home game.

That brings us to the mighty Ravens and their super defense against the happy-to-be-here Chiefs. Give me a break. Honestly, Baltimore has been hailed as a contender all season long and I don’t get it. Their quarterback is erratic. Their offensive line has taken a step backward this year. Their receivers don’t scare anyone anymore. Their defense is a shadow of their reputation. Why do they get so much love? Yes, I know they went 12-4. The thing is - Baltimore’s strength is their physicality. It sounds like a recipe for winning football games, but when you break it down they don’t have enough talent on either side of the ball to be considered elite. Everyone touts that stingy Ravens defense, but they are really a one-trick pony. They stop the run and hope you can’t sustain a drive long enough to score points. Their pass rush is non-existent (27th in the league in sacks) and their secondary is ordinary (19th in the league in yards/game). Haloti Ngata is the only player on their team playing at an elite level. Jarrett Johnson is good. Ray Lewis is playing well for a 35 year old linebacker, but there’s nothing spectacular here. They hit harder than anyone else and teams that aren’t ready for that level of intensity spend three quarters trying to work their way into the game. Familiar teams don’t have as much trouble. Baltimore needed five turnovers, a missed chip-shot field goal, and an incompletion deep in the red zone on the last play of the game to beat the lowly Bengals, a divisional opponent, last week. Not having played K.C. yet this year gives Baltimore the edge right? Well, maybe. The Chiefs are a young, hungry team playing the underdog role at home coming off a week where they were embarrassed by division rival Oakland. They just might be fired up enough to neutralize Baltimore’s advantage. Even if I’m wrong and they manage to defeat the Chiefs, Pittsburgh and New England have both seen Baltimore this year. They’ll be ready. I’d be surprised if the Ravens could beat either, let alone both of them. Baltimore’s Super Bowl chances are zilch.

The other two games could be tantalizingly close. Sexy Rexy tries to rally his troops against Peyton Manning’s MASH unit. The Colts are down, but so is the Jets D. I think Indy will run the ball better than expected. Manning wins at home.

Finally, can the Fantastic Mr. Vick carry the Eagles past the Pack? This is a tough first round match-up for both teams. I think Green Bay is the best all-around team in the NFC. Winning three road games to reach the Super Bowl will be a tall order, but if they manage to squeak by this one, I’d say they’re the team to beat. Vick is scary in the opening round off a week of rest, but I don’t see Philly as a Super Bowl contender. Their defense is being held together with duct tape at this point. Their hopes died when they blew the Minnesota game and let a potential first round bye slip away. There’s no way they can maneuver that D through three playoff teams without somebody lighting them up.

So where does that leave us for Super Bowl predictions? I don’t see both New England and Pittsburgh losing next week, and no one in the conference has the juice to run through both of them. It’ll be Patriots or Steelers in the AFC. I see the NFC as a four- team race. The Saints are a long shot due to health issues on both sides of the ball. No one is giving Chicago a chance, but they have home field unless they see Atlanta in the Championship game. I’d call them the dark horse. The Packers and the Falcons are the two most well rounded. I like Green Bay a little more, but Atlanta’s home field advantage puts them neck and neck. I’m going to go with Green Bay to pull off the improbable road win trifecta to beat Philly, Atlanta, and Chicago and make it to the Super Bowl for a showdown with Tom Brady and Co. The Patriots are peaking at the right time: Patriots over Packers 23-17.

2010 Mock Draft

It’s crunch time! The NFL’s first prime time draft is only hours away. Here’s my guess at how things will shake out for the first round tonight.

1. St. Louis:

The Rams put their cards on the table early. They don’t think they can pass on the QB here. They’ve started doing homework on other players lately, but I’m guessing it’s more being done for negotiation purposes or in response to trade inquiries. For the record, I still think they should draft the best player available, but they seem to think Bradford is a franchise player.

The Pick: Sam Bradford, QB Oklahoma

2. Detroit:

Finally, the city of Detroit catches a break. St. Louis couldn’t stomach paying $40 million to a DT and the Lions now have a rock to build their defense around. There has been some Suh vs. McCoy debate, but Suh has the edge in my book.

The Pick: Ndamukong Suh, DT Nebraska

3. Tampa Bay:

Gerald McCoy is the consensus here. A pass rushing defensive tackle is just what the Dr. ordered for the retooling Tampa defense.

The Pick: Gerald McCoy, DT Oklahoma

4. Washington:

The Redskins need O-line. I had them taking an OT before it became apparent Bradford would be gone and before they acquired Donovan McNabb. With the top QB off the board and their quarterback need temporarily filled, now it is even more of a no-brainer.

The Pick: Russel Okung, OT Oklahoma State

5. Kansas City:
(Wow, look at those Big 12 players go. I’m getting tired of typing Oklahoma, so I will not be projecting the Chiefs to take Trent Williams or Dez Bryant or Jermaine Gresham) This is where things get interesting. Eric Berry is the best player available. The Chiefs have a need for a safety. Will GM Scott Pioli pull the trigger on a top 5 safety? Better yet, did he learn his lesson about drafting need over value after the lackluster pick of Tyson Jackson third overall last year? I’m guessing no.

The Pick: Brian Bulaga, OT Iowa

6. Seattle:
Here’s where I go off the beaten path a little bit. Most people see Seattle addressing offensive line needs here. Patrick Kerney retired. They traded Daryl Tapp. I’m not sure defensive end isn’t the more pressing need. The way this league drools over pass rushers, it surprises me Derrick Morgan isn’t getting more play in the top 10. He has the size. He defends well against the run and the pass. People might call this a reach, but I think it’s a good move for Seattle to go with Morgan. However, Cleveland sitting right behind them is eying Berry. I’m going to predict Cleveland floats Seattle one of their third round picks to swap places, and the Browns end up picking here.

The Pick: Eric Berry, S Tennessee (to Cleveland)

7. Cleveland:
Once again the Browns are sort of the pivot point of the top 10. Normally, I’d say when in doubt, take the best player available, but that doesn’t really make sense here. The Browns are playing a lot of games in the media commenting on whether or not they’d take a quarterback and dropping lines about trading for the first pick overall. I think they’re just trying to stir up trade discussion because they don’t want to draft in this slot. I don’t think they’ll find anyone who wants to swoop in to get Clausen, but Buffalo might want to move in front of Oakland to take an OT. On the flip side, I’m sure they’ll be calling K.C. and Seattle to find out the price of sliding into position to draft Berry. I can’t decide if I want the Chiefs to take Berry because I think he’s the right pick for them or if I just don’t want him to fall to the Browns. In this scenario, K.C. once again plays it conservative and Seattle bites on the trade to move back one slot to draft Morgan.

The Pick: Derrick Morgan, DE Geogia Tech (to Seattle)

8. Oakland:

It is always interesting when people try to predict the unpredictable. Trying to keep up with Oakland’s insatiable thirst for eye-popping combine athletes, a lot of people are predicting the Raiders will take the physical marvel from Maryland, Bruce Campbell. However, Trent Williams is the better prospect and his combine numbers weren’t that much different than the times and measurements put up by Campbell. Al Davis has been relatively tame this offseason. I’ll say he does the right thing here and fills his glaring OT need with the best player available.

The Pick: Trent Williams, OT Oklahoma

9. Buffalo:
Talk of Jimmy Clausen not sliding past Buffalo has cooled. I agree, let the free fall begin for the Notre Dame QB. Buffalo could go OT here, but the lone remaining top 10 talent, Anthony Davis, has maturity issues. Ditto on WR Dez Bryant. That’s okay though, it’s not like they don’t have plenty of other weaknesses to fill. Switching to a 3-4 defense, the Bills have some personnel adjustments to make. They can start by taking the draft’s top nose tackle.
The Pick: Dan Williams, DT Tennessee

10. Jacksonville:
The Jags have an embarrassing amount of options here. They might want to trade down just to make their decision easier. Some people are projecting C.J. Spiller here. Maybe I am biased because I’m a Maurice Jones-Drew fantasy owner, but I don’t see it. Their O-line is maturing. Their offense will get better. They need to revamp their defense. It’s too early for S Earl Thomas. Defensive end remains a question mark. I couldn’t fault them for taking Jason Pierre-Paul but I think needs at linebacker are more urgent. I haven’t really seen anyone talking Rolando McClain, but a fiery middle linebacker that can lead seems like good way for them to reclaim their defensive identity.

The Pick: Rolando McClain, MLB Alabama

11. Denver:
McClain or D. Williams are both being linked to Denver by various analysts, but neither is available here. With ties to Brandon Marshall severed, the glaring need is wide receiver. The Dez Bryant character issues are being blown out of proportion to some extent.

The Pick: Dez Bryant, WR Oklahoma State

12. Miami:
The Dolphins would love a nose tackle, but as the only first round caliber player available at the position, D. Williams isn’t going to last long. Spiller isn’t out of the question if the club is tired of the injury prone Ronnie Brown. Although, don’t forget they already used their second round pick to boost their offense in WR Brandon Marshall so I assume defense will get the nod here. Outside linebacker might be their greatest need, but this draft is rare in that it is missing the type of high-end hybrid DE/OLB player that usually seems to grow on trees in college football. I don’t think players like Jerry Hughes and Sergio Kindle start to come into play until somewhere past the 20th pick. However, with decent depth littered throughout later rounds for Bill Parcels to pursue like Ricky Sapp, Brandon Lang and Eric Norwood, they don’t need to panic. With some talented players starting to slide at this point (Spiller, Pierre-Paul, Thomas), they might even have some trade offers thrown their way. In the end, they could also use a rangy free safety that can hit to go along with the young corners they brought in last year.

The Pick: Earl Thomas, S Texas

13. San Francisco:
On to Clausen’s next possible landing spot. The 49ers are talking nice about him, but I don’t think they want to take a QB with either of their first round picks. They’d rather continue to fill holes in their offensive line and secondary. Anthony Davis might have the most potential of all the O-line prospects, but he has some growing up to do. Instead of gambling on a QB, San Fran grabs a talented guy to start at RT and will count on no-nonsense head coach Mike Singletary to whip the immaturity out of him.

The Pick: Anthony Davis, OT Rutgers

14. Seattle:
I have a gut feeling if Spiller is available, Pete Carroll will push for the dynamic young playmaker to start rebuilding his offense. Yet, my head is telling me that rebuilding starts with a foundation. Seattle’s offense hasn’t really been the same since starting guard, Steve Hutchinson, was ripped away by the Vikings. I really think Mike Iupati might be a similar type of player. They started reconstructing the D-line early. Now they move on to the O-line.

The Pick: Mike Iupati, G Idaho



15. New York Giants:
Rumors are swirling that Giants DE Osi Umenyiora is on the trading block and the Giants are prepared to replace him with South Florida’s Jason Pierre-Paul. Even if Umenyiora stays put, Pierre-Paul is an option as G.M. Jerry Reese has never been shy about adding extra pass rushers. Regardless of what the G-Men have planned, I don’t think they would have dreamed Spiller would fall right into their laps. Pierre-Paul has enough potential that going either way would be warranted, but Spiller would launch the Giant offense into places it has never been before. Their revamped receiving corps showed they have a chance to be special, but the offense went stale late in the year. Imagine plugging in an electric, multi-purpose runner/slot receiver/match-up nightmare that can be supplemented with a back-breaking thumper like Brandon Jacobs.

The Pick: C.J. Spiller, RB Clemson

16. Tennessee:
That rush of wind is the entire Titan organization exhaling that N.Y. passed on Pierre-Paul. They need a middle linebacker and a couple of upgrades for their secondary, but defensive line play has been their trademark. Pierre-Paul gives them the chance to rebuild around a silky smooth athlete whose inexperience might just be a curtain hiding his potential greatness.

The Pick: Jason Pierre-Paul, DE South Florida

17. San Francisco:

The Niners are back on the clock, and all eyes are back on Jimmy Clausen. San Fransisco would probably be a good fit for the California native, but bringing in a first round QB to go along with former number one overall pick, Alex Smith, is just a weird dynamic that I can’t quite picture. Assuming they don’t go quarterback here, San Fran will look for some defensive help. A safety would be nice. It’s a shame they just barely missed on Thomas with their first pick, but a CB will help too. They settle here for the draft’s best corner who probably didn’t deserve to fall this far. .

The Pick: Joe Haden, CB Florida

18. Pittsburgh:

Might the Steelers be in the market for a quarterback? Probably not. I can’t picture Clausen here either. Somebody better start up a collection for the kid. He’ll be waiting a few more picks. The Steelers need to start rebuilding their aging defensive line, but the team has lost its identity the past few years. What they really need is a rugged interior lineman that can play guard and center. I’ll give Mel Kiper credit. He started projecting this pick before anyone else.

The Pick: Maurkice Pouncey, G/C Florida

19. Atlanta:
Things start to get real mushy as far as how to rank prospects at this point so the Falcons have some flexibility here. They took care of their corner need in free agency and will probably move on to the defensive line. I’d call Brandon Graham the better prospect, but the Falcons might be enamored with the size and frame of Carlos Dunlap.

The Pick: Carlos Dunlap, DE Florida

20. Houston:
Atlanta’s gain is Houston’s loss. The Dunta Robinson signing that freed the Falcons to go hunting for a fierce DE forces Houston to shop around for DB’s here. It’s not a total disaster, there are a few to pick from and the value isn’t half bad.

The Pick: Kareem Jackson, CB Alabama

21. Cincinnati:

Okay Bengals fans. Strap yourselves in. Cincinnati’s top needs as I see them are as follows:
1. Tight End
2. #3 wide receiver
3. Pass rush (defensive end?)
4. Strong side linebacker
5. Nickel Corner
6. #4 defensive tackle

It doesn’t make sense to draft a CB in the first round with too highly paid corners already on the roster, and there isn’t any value at LB or DT with the 21st pick. Scratch those three off the list. Demaryius Thomas has the skill set they need at receiver. I just don’t know if they’ve seen enough to gamble on the guy. Considering the prospects they could find in the next two rounds, I’d say they hold off on wide receiver.

That leaves tight end and defensive end. Every year, the top tight end in the draft class starts out getting projected to start his career in Cincinnati. This might be the year it actually happens. There certainly hasn’t been a more talented tight end that the Bengals have passed on. Meanwhile, Marvin Lewis continues to harp on how much he thinks Chase Coffman will contribute to the offense this year. I can’t decide whether he’s just trying to dissuade someone from trading in front of them to take Jermaine Gresham or if he thinks he needs to prepare everyone for passing on what many people think is the missing piece to their offensive puzzle.

If Gresham is available and they think his knees are okay, he will be hard to pass up. The guy is a top ten talent. If they pass and they miss out on a tight end later, they are putting a lot of pressure on Coffman and a wide receiver group that is in transition. Taking Gresham gives them two top-notched receiving tight end prospects. That would allow them to mix the two in into their first pro games and would give them insurance if one or the other isn’t up to the task this season. They might even be able to get creative with two-tight-end sets where opposing defenses will have no idea how to set up coverage.

Unfortunately, New England might break the hearts of all in Bengaldom. Most think the Patriots will target an outside linebacker, but trying to add some juice back into their passing game is just as strong of a possibility. With Houston in the market for a corner that they can probably find trading back two slots behind the Bengals, it probably won’t take much for New England to coax a trade.

Having a team swoop in and steal a player Cincy was targeting would be disappointing, but it’s not the end of the world. If they miss out on Gresham, they have a shot to land a defensive player that can give them a lot of energy up front. Brandon Graham would be a guy that could move all over the formation. Is he a linebacker? Is he a defensive end? I don’t know but I’d like to see him do both. That might not seem like it should be a high priority for the Bengals, but one more gadget in Mike Zimmer’s utility belt is never a bad thing. It is bitter sweet because they would basically be re-drafting David Pollack, but it is what the defense is missing. They are better off grooming Michael Johnson as their next starting defensive end and using Graham as the utility guy. In other words, rotate Odom and Fanene on one side across from Geathers and Johnson on the other. Sprinkle Graham all over the formation depending on the situation and beat the snot out of people. Frostee Rucker goes on the bubble and the need to find a fourth DT goes up slightly. At tight end they can look for Rob Gronkowski (Arizona) or Dennis Pitta (BYU) in the second round or Anthony McCoy (USC), Aaron Hernandez (Florida), or Dorin Dickerson (Pittsburgh) in the third round.

What happens if both Gresham and Graham are gone? Dunlap is a player I projected earlier that might be available in that scenario. He is an upgrade from Graham on size and athleticism, but a downgrade on character and versatility. Someone like Jerry Hughes (TCU) would be more similar to Graham and could fill a similar role. I’m not big on Sergio Kindle (Texas) and he is more of an outside linebacker, but he would be an option. Everson Griffen is more raw than Graham and less athletic than Dunlap. Focusing on other positions, Demaryius Thomas comes back into play. I have Dez Bryant going high, but some think he will tumble all the way to Cincinnati. If so, I might even take him over Gresham. Taylor Mays could get a look, but I see him as more of a second round prospect. Lastly, you’d prefer to trade down if you’re going to take an outside linebacker, but Daryl Washington (TCU) and Sean Weatherspoon (Missouri) are options if the Bengals are in a pinch.

The Pick: Brandon Graham, DE Michigan

22. New England:
Alge Crumpler is more or less the only tight end on New England’s roster. They will be without Wes Welker for the beginning of the season. Tight end is a major need. A short-range, possession receiver is a major need. They get both if they trade up to get Gresham. If they go outside linebacker, they’ll look at Hughes and Graham.

The Pick: Jermaine Gresham, TE Oklahoma

23. Green Bay:
Offensive line help would be nice, but the Packers seem content to stick with what they’ve got for some reason. Aaron Kampman transitioning to linebacker in their new 3-4 defense didn’t work out too well and the Packers allowed him to leave through free-agency. Green Bay decides to ignore needs at CB and O-line to take a player that can start opposite Clay Matthews.

The Pick: Sergio Kindle, OLB Texas

24. Philadelphia:
With the twenty-fourth pick of the draft, the Philadelphia Eagles select…Jimmy Clausen??? Don’t laugh, it’s going to happen. Okay, maybe not quite like that, but I think this is where teams will start trying to trade back into the first round to pick up Clausen. Since Philly is in the business of supplying other teams with quarterbacks, why not project the trade here. I think Minnesota sees an opportunity to grab a QB of the future and fearing someone else might pull the trigger soon they decide to make a move. Brett Favre isn’t going to live forever and I’m not buying this, “Minnesota is happy with Tavaris Jackson” business. Less than a year ago, all you heard was the opposite.

The Pick: Jimmy Clausen, QB Notre Dame (To Minnesota)

25. Baltimore:
The Ravens have needs in their linebacking corps and could use a developmental wide receiver even with the Anquan Boldin acquisition. However, their biggest need might be at cornerback. Ladarius Webb was a solid pick last year, but a season-ending knee injury to their standout rookie once again leaves the Ravens needing DB’s.
The Pick: Kyle Wilson, CB Boise State

26. Arizona:
The Cardinals are in transition after losing two of their top three offensive players and one of their top defensive players in the offseason. They need an inside linebacker and a nose tackle, but they get the most bang for their buck here snagging Boldin’s future replacement.

The Pick: Demaryius Thomas, WR Georgia Tech

27. Dallas
Two seasons in a row the Cowboys barreled through the regular season and bowed out of the postseason because their offensive line was big and slow. It is time to replace Flozell the Hotel. They can look for their safety and nose tackle later.

The Pick: Charles Brown, OT USC

28. San Diego:
The Chargers divorced themselves from LaDainian Tomlinson, Jamal Williams, and Antonio Cromartie in the offseason and will consequently head into the draft looking for help at RB, NT, and CB. Not surprisingly, a lot of people assume they’ll reach for RB Ryan Mathews or NT Terrence Cody here. Don’t forget, the Chargers have some flexibility from having switched second round picks with the Seahawks when they shipped Charlie Whitehurst to Seattle. Not to mention, San Diego is a team that ignores need for value more consistently than anyone. Jared Odrick is a fierce defensive tackle that should transition nicely to 3-4 defensive end.

The Pick: Jared Odrick, DT Penn State

29. N.Y. Jets:
It has been a busy offseason for the Jets as they have methodically added veterans to their positions of need through trades and free agency. Nose tackle is one of their few holes left unfilled, but they won’t find one worth picking here. When in doubt, pick a pass rusher. Some are calling Jerry Hughes the most underrated prospect in the draft that could go as high as 12 to Miami.
The Pick: Jerry Hughes, OLB TCU

30. Minnesota:
The Eagles slashed the payroll in favor of youth this offseason. They’ve added linebacking help through trades and will have a chance to add offensive line depth later. Instead, Philly takes the opportunity to grab a defensive end to line up across from Trent Cole.
The Pick: Everson Griffen, DE USC (To Philadelphia)

31. Indianapolis:
The Colts need an upgrade at left tackle and should start looking for a center to replace Jeff Saturday, but their most glaring need last season might have been cornerback depth. Teams usually don’t worry too much about value at the bottom of the first round, but the Colts are able to pull it off here landing a corner that comes off the draft board at just about the right time.
The Pick: Devin McCourty, CB Rutgers

32. New Orleans:
The Saints pulled off a big win in the big game, but they have some work to do if they want to defend the crown. Their top need is outside linebacker and they actually have a couple to pick from here. TCU’s Daryl Washington and Missouri’s Sean Weatherspoon both could get the nod, but the latest buzz off the wire has Washington’s stock up and Weatherspoon’s stock down.
The Pick: Daryl Washington, LB TCU