2013 Mock Draft Magic

It’s mock time. It will change over the next month, but here's a snap shot of names being discussed in the top 20. That of course will lead us right up to that magic 21 slot presently owned by your Cincinnati Bengals.

 

1. Kansas City

The Chiefs have traded themselves out of any scenario where they might reach for Geno Smith or Matt Barkley with the Alex Smith deal. (Quick tangent: Chiefs fans were mortified their team put their eggs in A. Smith's solid but uninspiring and somewhat tattered basket. Following a year where the free agency and draft crops netted teams QB’s the likes of Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson, and Ryan Tannehill, it's hard to blame them for feeling mopey. Analysts, for the most part, look at it as a good move to take the initiative to acquire the best player available at the team's most dire need position. At 28 years old with eight years of NFL experience, A. Smith has potential in both the short term and the long term. Personally, I like the fit with Andy Reid, I just think they needed to find a way to keep the second round pick they used to pull off the deal. This draft is all about depth. They were either in line for a really good player or a very valuable trading chip. Instead, they paid premium value when they were essentially bidding against themselves.)  That basically leaves the OT’s duking it out for the number one overall slot.  Scouts are split, but right now we’ll still give the nod to Luke Joeckel.

The Pick: Luke Joeckel, OT Texas A&M

2. Jacksonville

The Jaguars also face the quandary of picking at the top of a draft with no obvious future all-pro prospects.  Their roster has quite a few holes, but there isn’t an obvious need/value fit here. The new front office needs to rate the best player available and go for it. That narrows this pick down to the top corner, the pass rushing DT whose stock is soaring and the OT pushing Joeckel as the top overall pick. Dee Millner’s sub 4.4 40 yard dash at the combine give him just enough boost to get the nod here. 

The Pick: Dee Millner, CB Alabama

3. Oakland

Oakland’s post-Al Davis front office seems to be making all the right moves. Unfortunately, the hole they’re digging themselves out of is pretty deep. Much like Jacksonville, this pick has to be a matter of taking the best player available regardless of need. They should field calls to trade down for more picks if they can.  They need a high volume of players playing for economical salaries. If they must stay put, pass rushing DT’s are hard to find. 

The Pick: Sharrif Floyd, DT Florida

4. Philadelphia

Let the Chip Kelly era begin! The offensive line has to get better, but for now they’ll hope players returning from injury will cure those woes. Switching to more of a hybrid defense, this will most likely be a debate between adding versatile OLB talent and rebuilding their D-line. Kelly will likely be tempted to gamble on his former player, OLB/DE Dion Jordan, but in the end Star Lotulelei is the safer bet (…sort of. Assuming the heart condition detected at the combine turns out to be no big deal that is). Capable of playing 3-4 DE or 4-3 DT, Lotulelei brings scheme flexibility and fits nicely next to last year’s number one pick, Fletcher Cox.

The Pick: Star Lotulelei, DT Utah

5. Detroit

The four teams in front of Detroit mulled over whether to take OT Eric Fisher. The Lions finally pull the trigger. A DE would be nice, but protecting Matthew Stafford should be first priority. 

The Pick: Eric Fisher, OT Central Michgan

6. Cleveland

Cheer up Cleveland fans. I have a feeling your luck is starting to change. New ownership has assembled a pretty impressive front office, and it should only be a matter of time before they mold their roster into one of the league’s best. I have Dion Jordan slotted here. Their recent free-agency acquisition of OLB Paul Kruger calls into question whether they’ll go OLB in this slot, but Jordan is a unique talent capable of dropping into coverage and rushing the passer. I’m sticking with it. 

The Pick: Dion Jordan, OLB/DE Oregon

7. Arizona

Geno Smith generated buzz at his pro day, but the recent word out of Arizona is they aren’t interested in a QB in round one. No team is dumb enough to actually tip their hand to that extent at this stage of the game so believe what you want to believe. For now, we’ll assume it’s true. Past QB, OT is a no-brainer in this slot. Lane Johnson has done nothing but move up draft boards this offseason to the point where he now comes up in discussions right alongside Joeckel and Fisher.

The Pick: Lane Johnson, OT Oklahoma

8. Buffalo

The Bills are once again starting from scratch as they’ve purged their coaching staff and quarterback from last season. With former Syracuse head coach Doug Marrone now holding the clipboard, don’t be surprised if he reaches for one of his former players, QB Ryan Nassib. However, in this scenario, most peoples’ number one QB, Geno Smith is still on the board. Riding the momentum from his pro day, Smith is the man for now.

The Pick: Geno Smith, QB West Virginia

9. New York Jets

Talk about a train wreck. The Jets need to stockpile picks and reshape their roster. Yet, they decided to retain head coach Rex Ryan for next season. With the head coach needing to win now to keep his job and the team needing to launch into all out rebuilding mode, the Jets 2013 season feels like a recipe for disaster. Who knows, maybe it’s a shrewd move to use Ryan as a lame duck head coach in the destruction phase of the rebuilding process to accelerate the next coach’s rehabilitation efforts. More likely, owner Woody Johnson just isn’t ready to give up yet and the Jets opt for OLB in this slot. In that case, Barkevious Mingo feels like he is tailor made to be a Jet. Mingo boasts outstanding potential, but I think he is destined to disappoint at the pro level. As many analysts have detailed, his athleticism is off the charts, but his production on the field doesn’t match his talent. Some downplay it saying it’s more related to how coaches used him at LSU. I can’t get past it. College football is a world of haves and have nots, and LSU’s defense certainly can be placed in the haves category. Mingo was playing with at least three other guys that will go in the first two rounds of the draft and probably another two or three more that will get drafted high in future years.  To not produce with the deck stacked in your favor is a red flag for me. Time will tell.  

The Pick: Barkevious Mingo, OLB/DE LSU

10. Tennessee

The Titans picked up the top guard in free agency, but I don’t think they stop there. Defensive end is a possibility, but I think they continue to invest in the offensive line. They decided a couple of years ago to build their team around their big play running back, Chris Johnson. Now they need to invest in an O-line that can make holes for him. 

The Pick: Jonathan Cooper, G North Carolina

11. San Diego

San Diego is another offensive line that needs rebuilt. Lane Johnson would be a shoe-in but he’s gone already in this scenario. Chance Warmack is pretty much the only player in this draft class anyone considers as an elite prospect for his position. Cooper jumps ahead of him because he’s more athletic and fits better in Tennessee’s scheme, but no one doubts Warmack has the talent to be great. Two guards in the top ten seems outlandish, but scouts say these two guys are the real deal. 

The Pick: Chance Warmack, G Alabama

12. Miami

Miami has grabbed headlines this free agency period, and if this mock plays out they will continue to draw buzz with this pick. Ezekiel Ansah is a 270 pound athletic freak. He has only played football for a couple of years so he comes with growing pains, but teams won’t be able to resist the upside.

The Pick: Ezekiel Ansah, DE BYU

13. Tampa Bay

Tampa has invested a pile of picks in their D-line recently without much to show for it. The way the value is shaking out in this slot, it looks like they'll keep trying. Bjoern Werner was slotted top five early in the process. He's dropped down behind the athletic, high ceiling types lately but you have to figure the Buccaneers would love to nab him this low.

The Pick: Bjoern Werner, DE Florida State

14. Carolina

Right about 13, the WR's start to come into play. DT is the bigger need though and the gap between the day one and day two DT's is much wider than the gap between the WR's. Sheldon Richardson has some top ten buzz and is capable of filling the elusive role of playmaker in the middle of the defensive line.

The Pick: Sheldon Richardson, DT Missouri

15. New Orleans

The Saints could stand to restock their offensive weaponry, but the more pressing need is to acquire fresh blood at linebacker for new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan's 3-4 defense. There will be WR's they can snag later. Alec Ogletree is a sideline to sideline LB that can cover like a safety. Not a bad piece to build a defense around. Ogletree comes off the board and hearts sink in Cincinnati. (If they’re comfortable with the off-the-field baggage, of the players that have some chance of lasting to 21, he should be at the top of Cincy’s board. The way the league is heading, covering the tight end is crucial to competing with the elite teams, and that is what the Bengals’ defense does worst. With Rey “Molasses” Maualuga signed back up to patrol the middle of the field the run defense is in good shape but the pass defense needs help. Take Ogletree to play MLB, move Maualuga back to the strong side and leave Burfict on the weak side. Unfortunately, I don’t think we have to worry about whether or not they’d pull the trigger on that scenario.)

The Pick: Alec Ogletree, LB Georgia

16. St. Louis

It has been an “invest to help Sam Bradford offseason” so far for the Rams. I say it continues. I'm not huge on Keenan Allen but many are comparing him to Reggie Wayne. Don’t rule out Tavon Austin to slide into the Danny Amendola vacancy.

The Pick: Keenan Allen, WR California

17. Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh sits quietly as James Harrison's replacement falls right into their lap. Jarvis Jones was the most productive of the OLB prospects last year. If he clears medically, Pittsburgh won't pass him up.

The Pick: Jarvis Jones, OLB Geogia

18. Dallas

When was the last time Dallas didn't do something flashy in the first round (ok, they took an OT in the top ten in 2011, but still…)? Jerry Jones is itching to do something exciting. You can just feel it. He's doing that little fake smile where he grits his teeth as I type these words. Watch out, the Tavon Austin pick is coming. And once again, Bengals fans' hearts sink. Some still think Austin is a late first rounder because of his size. I don't see it. There's enough buzz about his strong character and toughness, somebody in that 15 to 19 range will bite. The key for Austin will be to land on a team that has a number one receiver. Otherwise he's going to get overused and he won't hold up. Cincinnati is a great fit because they have the WR1, they have the bigger WR2's they can line up outside, they have bigger WR’s they can throw in the slot to run the more physical routes, and they have a small jitterbug receiver that can replicate Austin’s roll when he gets dinged up. More importantly, unlike most other teams in the top 20, they can afford to make a luxury pick (assuming they sign Andre Smith or some other RT in free agency). Their roster is in good shape and they have an extra second rounder to secure players at other need positions (positions like LB and Safety that happen to be deep in day 2 of the draft).
The Pick: Tavon Austin, WR West Virginia

19. New York Giants

It’s pretty easy to project Giants first round picks. Who is the top rated defensive end available? Their thirst for pass rushers might actually be more justified this year. Osi Umeniora is on his way out the door and Justin Tuck appears past his prime. Damontre Moore was slotted in the top ten early on, but a sluggish combine and maturity concerns have chilled his stock. He makes a good investment at 19 though. 

The Pick: Damontre Moore, DE Texas A&M

20. Chicago

The Bears could go a number of directions here including linebacker or safety. I think they pass in favor of offensive weaponry. TE Tyler Eifert brings solid value in this slot. The Bears signed Martellus Bennett in free agency, but he's a little too enigmatic to rely on as more than a stop gap solution. In the meantime new head coach Mark Trestman, known as an offensive innovator, should make good use of both TE's. Eifert is a high-end receiving prospect that should evolve into Jay Cutler's number two target quickly. 
The Pick: Tyler Eifert, TE Notre Dame

21. Cincinnati Bengals

The Ravens are being dismantled in free agency and the Steelers are regrouping. All the Bengals have to do is sign Andre Smith and not screw up this draft and the division is theirs for the taking. Fortunately, the depth of this draft class simplifies things quite a bit. The Bengals could go LB, S, WR, RB, in just about any order (hopefully leaving RB in the back half of that sequence) and address their biggest needs with four decent players. Trading down might also be an option with teams in those top ten slots potentially wanting to move back into the first round to grab the quarterback they like. Dropping ten or fifteen slots isn’t too painful in this draft and they might be able to snag an extra third or 2014 first round pick. If they stay put, I like Ogletree and Austin best out of the players that might be available for reasons referenced above. Unfortunately, it looks like both will be gone by 21. In this scenario, the consolation prize is safety Kenny Vaccaro. Some think it’s a long shot Cincy will take a safety. Mike Zimmer himself scoffed at the notion, “I like our safeties.”  Really? Is that why you picked up Chris Crocker off the street in the middle of the season and started him the rest of the year? Others think there’s no positional value at safety. That doesn’t make any sense either. They are picking at 21. I think just about any position is in play. Ask Pittsburgh and Baltimore if they think picking a safety in the back half of the first round is okay. I’m not saying Vaccaro is going to be Troy Pallamalu or Ed Reed, but let’s not get too crazy with trying to find the golden pick. If there’s a guy there that can contribute, take him. It’s hard to believe that the top safety on most peoples’ boards couldn’t contribute on Cincinnati's roster. 

The Pick: Kenny Vaccaro, S Texas

Other names to watch out for:

D.J. Fluker, OT Alabama:  If the Bengals don’t sign a free agent right tackle, they might replace Smith with another Alabama tackle. He has the size, but is he athletic enough? Some scouts think the team that drafts Fluker will eventually realize he’s a better fit at guard. 

DE’s: 

Bringing back Robert Geathers and Wallace Gillberry was nice, but is it a luxury they can afford? I’m not sure they can pay Michael Johnson long term and plugging in Geathers past next year doesn’t exactly make you feel warm and fuzzy. With Carlos Dunlap heading into free agency next year, the time fill the hole at DE is now. DE’s might be readily available at 21, but I’m not sure there’s a roster spot anymore. Regardless, if they do find a way to stash a rookie somewhere this year here are the names to watch out for:

Damontre Moore, Texas A&M:  I have him going 19 right now, but it’s not unreasonable to think he might fall to 21. 

Corey Lemonier, Auburn: Lemonier’s case is the opposite of the Mingo effect referenced above. He didn’t dominate, but as the lone good player on a bad defense his talents might have been considerably masked. 

Cornellius Carradine, Florida State: Carradine could have graded out as one of the top DE’s in this class if he hadn’t torn his ACL late last season. He might not be ready to go at the start of the season, but he would be a good investment for 2014.   

That’s all for now. We’re closing in on one month until draft day.  Keep an eye out for my annual full first round mock.

2012 Down, 2013 to Go

The Past

Another Bengals' season is in the books. It's time to reflect for a minute or two and then start prognosticating on the prospects of next season. I'll overview the year, talk Andy Dalton, get into team needs for 2013, and preview a few names to track throughout draft season. The offseason is just gearing up. Let's dig in.

There were some positive signs in 2012 for the orange and black, but in the end the season ended the same as it did last year. With another loss to the Texans in the wild card round of the playoffs, there's a tendency to interpret the duplicate result as a lack of progress. Taking a closer look at it I'd say not so fast. There are a lot of cyclical trends in the NFL. Roster restrictions, salary cap, and free agency are constantly plucking away each team’s depth while injuries sap talent off the top end of the roster. Teams that stay healthy usually have more success. By shear probability, teams that manage to dodge the injury bug one year tend to pay the piper the next. The end result is a tendency for teams to yo-yo back and forth between good seasons and bad. Sticking around as a top 12 team in back to back years is a pretty nice accomplishment. You either have to be really lucky or have a well-rounded roster and a good front office capable of patching things back together each offseason. Back to back playoff seasons is a very positive sign for Cincinnati that bucks their trend over the last ten years of one step forward two steps back. The roster is maturing and is as strong as it has been in years (it is a good sign that it feels like I’ve said this the last few offseasons).

Regardless, I would argue the 2012 season was not the same as 2011. Yes, they lost to the same team in the same building to end the year, but the loss didn't feel the same. Last year it felt like they cracked under playoff pressure. This year the game-plan and execution fell short, but the team still hung around all game and were an arm’s length away from taking the lead in the final three minutes of the game. A loss is a loss but it is important that the stage didn’t feel too big for the Bengals this year.

How about the regular season? Last year, I lamented the lack of wins against quality competition. This year, they weren't exactly knocking off juggernauts but progress was evident. The schedule got tougher but the record stayed about the same. With the blowout against the Giants and the shootout in Washington, they notched two wins against teams with winning records (Baltimore in week 17 doesn't count. They weren't trying) and won a third against an 8-8 Pittsburgh team. It's not a thunderous declaration they can contend, but they’re closer. The stage is set. Is 2013 the year they make the leap? Let's take a look.

The Present

The story that tends to dwarf everything else is whether Andy Dalton is good enough to take the team to the promised land. Short answer: yes. Everyone is so fixated on the unprecedented early success of Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, and Russell Wilson that they forget the QB career path of starting out in the middle of the pack and improving a little bit year to year. Look at Drew Brees' progression. It's a different league now but Dalton's numbers are slightly better in years one and two. Unless Sean Peyton ditches his head coaching gig to become the Bengals’ offensive coordinator, I don't expect Dalton to become Brees, but let’s give him another year before we decide how good he might become. He needs to improve the deep ball and his decision making got a little skiddish on the back half on the schedule. Still, he's good enough. If someone as one dimensional as Joe Flacco can do it, then Dalton is plenty capable.

So how does the rest of the roster look? I think they are one more successful offseason away from taking things to the next level. It's going to be a challenge. Around half of the roster is heading into some kind of free agency and they need to keep swinging steady on draft day, but the framework is there. Their defensive line is one of the best in the league. DE Michael Johnson is a key free agent, but they might take care of him with the Justin Smith strategy (franchise tag for a year or two and try to bring in a suitable replacement in the meantime). The entire linebacking corps outside of last year's undrafted rookies Vontaze Burfict and Emmanuel Lamur, is heading into free agency. Regardless whether they bring anyone back, the Bengals have to get better play out of this group. Rey Maualuga impressed me shedding blocks in run defense, but he’s just not good enough in coverage. Burfict was a pleasant surprise, but he's now he’s had some success. If he has another good year he'll start to wonder whether his performance should match his paycheck. Can he keep his head on straight? I'm not saying he can't, I just caution getting too comfortable penciling him in as a reliable starter. The secondary overachieved last year. Hopefully they can bring back at least one of their veterans in Adam Jones, Terrance Newman, or Nate Clements and get some contribution out of Jason Allen and Dre Kirkpatrick. Safety is another area that has to get better. Overall, there are some holes to plug, but it should just be minor fixes to sustain what is already a good unit. If they keep the band together on the defensive line and strike gold at linebacker, they could transform from good to great.

The offense had its moments last year. Early in the season they were making more big plays and converting more long-yardage situations, but by the end of the year they slowed down. The red zone offense started to get hot but wasn't the same after the Mohamed Sanu injury. The offensive line is still in pretty good shape although they underperformed last year. Injuries took out a starting guard and center before the year started and the young guards had some growing pains as the season went along. On the bright side, the fill-ins gained experience and the injured players should all be back next year. The key will be the pending free agency of Andre Smith. Their offensive weapons looked good for the most part, but it felt like they could use one or two more pieces. Hold that thought. The key will be to mostly hold serve in free agency bringing back as many guys as possible and replacing departures with rough equivalents. That brings us to the fun part. It’s draft season, baby!

The Future:

The 2013 draft class is short on elite talent, but heavy on depth. The strength of the first round is at offensive and defensive line and the tops of the QB, RB, and WR crops are relatively thin. Most pundits consider Texas A & M offensive tackle Luke Joeckel to be the top candidate for the number one overall pick by default, but nobody is sure if he’ll fit into Kansas City’s roster plans. The most intriguing story (other than hearing what brash interview questions get lobbed at Manti Te’o at the combine) revolves around which quarterbacks will be able work their way into the first round.  Based on talent probably no more than one should come off the board, but when push comes to shove don’t be surprised to see three or four. With the most depth by far, expect at least seven defensive tackles in the first round. Past the first round is where this draft class really shines. A lot of players taken on day two of this draft will become high-end players in the league, and there is a little bit of something for everybody.  Small receivers. Big receivers. Possession receivers. Speed receivers. Small running backs. Big running backs. Medium-sized running backs.  Big, hulking 350 lb. linemen.  Smaller, quicker 290 lb. linemen. It’s like an all-you-can-eat buffet. So what does it all mean for Cincinnati? That sound you hear is the Bengals front office licking their chops because I’m not sure this could have played out any better. With three picks in the 21 to 53 range, Cincinnati should land three players capable of making significant contributions at need positions. Let’s talk through their needs and lay out how this might unfold from the first round on.

Linebacker:

Alec Ogletree (Georgia):  Ogletree is an athletic sideline to sideline type that stood out as one of the top players on the field in the Georgia vs. Alabama SEC championship game. He looked like he was creeping into the top 15 until a recent DUI to go with prior off-the-field transgressions gave everyone something to think about. If they’re comfortable with him and he falls to 21, he might be too good to pass up.

Manti Te’o (Notre Dame):  Projected early on in the top ten, Te’o’s momentum slowed in January and he now looks like he’ll go somewhere in the 20 to 25 range. Despite the perplexing headlines, the drop probably has more to do with his so-so performance in the national championship game than the catfishing scandal. The combine is huge for Te’o. 

Some would argue, Burfict is penciled in at MLB, but it wouldn’t be outrageous to have a high-end back-up plan. Both Te’o and Ogletree should be versatile enough to play on the weak side.  Worst case scenario is you have to plug the rookie into the middle and leave Burfict at the WILL. If they pass in round one someone like LSU’s Kevin Minter wouldn’t be a bad alternative in round two.

Safety:

Kenny Vaccaro (Texas): Every draft class seems to have a token safety in the first round. Vaccaro is the guy hands down this year. What every draft class doesn’t usually have is safety depth. 2013 is the exception. Even if the Bengals miss out, as expected, on Vaccaro, there will be plenty of alternatives with as many as seven more safeties being projected as second or third rounders. 

Running Back:

Eddie Lacy (Alabama):  Lacy is riding the momentum of his punishing performance in the national championship game to the top of the RB heap. Still he would be a bit of a reach at 21.  Fortunately, the RB talent pool will most likely stay well stocked into day three of the draft. If they aren’t able to land someone like Giovani Bernard (North Carolina) or Montee Ball (Wisconsin) in round two, chances are, guys like Johnathan Franklin (UCLA) or Kenjon Barner (Oregon) will fall into the third or fourth rounds.

WR:

“What’s that, WR??” you say.  Well, I like Sanu and Marvin Jones too, but remember they only flashed this year. It reminds me of when everyone was so excited about the two rookie safeties that played some as rookies a few years ago.  I don’t even remember those guys’ names. This is my dark horse for the first round. The electric but raw Cordarrelle Patterson and the more polished but not as athletic Keenan Allen are projected as the top two WR’s, but I hope Cincy looks past those two should either be available. How about West Virginia’s Tavon Austin? Yes he’s a reach at 21. Yes, it’s risky to put too much stock in a 5’8” 175 lbs. receiver. But I think he is just what this offense needs. He’s fast. He’s quick. He can score from anywhere. The offense had a different dimension with Andrew Hawkins breaking big plays at the beginning of last year. However, he wore down as the season went on and he wasn’t providing the same extra dimension at the end. Not to mention, Hawkins a key player on special teams. It is worth duplicating his talent on the roster to try to ensure both players can make it through the season. Austin is a rich man’s Andrew Hawkins. If the Bengals pass at 21, I think someone pulls the trigger in the 28 to 32 range. I say grab him while you can. With that extra second round pick, it is a luxury they can afford. Then go safety, LB, running back with the next three picks and they should be sitting pretty.

That’s all for now.  I’ll try to mock out the top 21 some time in the near future. As always, stay tuned.