Overall, my predictions didn't hold up very well. I was betting on mayhem in the top 10, but there ended up not being much sizzle throughout the whole round other than a few head scratching CB picks, Ceedee Lamb falling to Big D, and the Love fest in Green Bay.
According to the mock draft contest on Fantasypros.com where they compile the final mock drafts of a pretty extensive list of draft analysts and football pundits, the average number of player to team matches among the 213 contest entries was 6.8 with a high of 13. I came in slightly below average with 6 matches. To be fair, for a lot of these guys with contacts around the league this is more of an information gathering exercise as opposed to logically trying to dissect the puzzle and figure out what is going to happen. Scrolling through the contest results, big names came in all across the map. Some were better than my entry like Peter King with 11 correct, Albert Breer 10, Peter Schrager 9 and Daniel Jeremiah 8. Some were worse: Joel Klatt 5, Evan Silva 4, Pete Prisco 3, Frank Swab 3. And some were the same (Mel Kiper Jr., Dane Brugler, Bucky Brooks, Rob Rang, and Lance Zielein all came in with 6).
I found my way into the middle of the pack matching players to teams, but my overall mock score didn't fair quite as well held up next to the pros. The contest applies a scoring system to each entry awarding varying amounts of points for picking players to the correct draft slot (within five slots), picking the correct position to a team, picking the correct positional order (If you say Tua Tagovailoa is going to be the second QB off the board and he is QB2, you get extra points), and matching players to the correct team. Tallying up my score I would have finished in a whopping 206th place in the contest.. Well, there's no where to go from here but up! I've heard of this contest before, but this is the first time I found the results and tallied up my own score. I'll see if I can kick it up a notch next year.
Here are some quick and some not so quick takes on each pick (again, the gray is the caption from my original prediction for reference and the blue text is my reaction):
1. Cincinnati
No Godfather offers come in. I’m not even sure what it would have to be, but the price tag in my head as a fan is much higher than anything I’ve heard floated out there by any analyst debating this topic. I’m talking Miami would have to drop all three first round picks this year, both first round picks next year, and multiple second round picks (probably one this year and one next year.. And even then I’d still be queasy about it!! So really, it just becomes a matter of just take your guy.
The Pick: Joe Burrow, QB LSU
Mock Prediction vs. Actual Result:
Team Match? YES
Slot Difference: 0
Actual Pick: Joe Burrow, QB LSU
Reaction:
We did it! We survived owning the number one pick without dribbling ketchup down the front of our nice shirt with the whole world watching. Luckily, Joe Burrow made it easy on us.
2. Washington
The Tagovailoa injury and the presence of a rare edge talent have let Washington off the hook from the pressure of whether they should take another quarterback. I don’t condone taking rating star caliber QB prospects behind other positions, but Young is rated as the top prospect in the class in some circles and is often described as a more athletic version of the Bosa brothers.
The Pick: Chase Young, DE Ohio State
Mock Prediction vs. Actual Result:
Team Match? YES
Slot Difference: 0
Actual Pick: Chase Young, DE Ohio State
Reaction:
Another "it was hard to screw this up" pick. The Tagovailoa injury really sealed off Washington's options here. Given the uncertainty they would have been hard pressed to take another first round QB and no one was going to trade them enough assets to justify moving off a player the caliber of Young. There wasn't a path to extracting more value out of this pick.
Okudah is the consensus here, but I’m not convinced. The Lions will draw positional value ire from the masses for picking Simmons this high, but I’m projecting they’ll see his versatility as the missing link to their defense, and I’m not so sure that I disagree with them.
The Pick: Isaiah Simmons, Defense Clemson
Mock Prediction vs. Actual Result:
Team Match? No
Slot Difference: -5
Actual Pick: Jeffrey Okudah, CB Ohio State
Reaction:
I went out on a limb that Detroit would take an unexpected swing on one of the most unique prospects in the last few years. Instead they went chalk. Trading down two to five slots would have been ideal, but if that wasn't available and assuming the organization didn't want to take a quarterback, Simmons, Lamb, and Jeudy were all more valuable football assets to take here. Okudah is fine. He's the best corner in the class. I just don't see as pretty of a picture as is being painted by the consensus brush. He'll be good, but thinking back to the way I felt about someone like Marshon Lattimore coming out, Okudah just isn't in that class.
The smoke surrounding Tagovailoa is out of control. Call in all fire departments from neighboring counties! Nobody can see! Nobody can breathe! This thing is out of control. As a steadfast QB value guy, even I’m starting to waiver into thinking that the league might actually let Tagovailoa slide down the draft board. Logic wins in the end. High end quarterback talent is worth the risk. The Chargers are afraid Miami has been playing dead all along and decides to make a move to secure the star they need going into a new stadium in the L.A. market.
The Pick: Tua Tagovailoa, QB Alabama
Mock Prediction vs. Actual Result:
Team Match? No
Slot Difference: -1
Actual Pick: Andrew Thomas, OT Georgia
Reaction:
Maybe there just wasn't a trade on the table, but this seems like another missed opportunity to acquire extra picks and still draft the player they ended up taking at four. Regardless, they got their guy, and I like that they went with Thomas over the other three top tackles. He's the best fit and the most likely to be successful early in his career.
It turns out Miami was smoke screening for a different quarterback the whole time. His tape isn’t as scary as devious, scheming general managers would have you believe.
The Pick: Jordan Love, QB Utah State
Mock Prediction vs. Actual Result:
Team Match? No
Slot Difference: -21
Actual Pick: Tua Tagovailoa, QB Alabama
Reaction:
Miami pulled off the heist of not needing to trade up to get their man. Everything fell into place for them to snag a franchise QB at pick 5 while keeping all of their other draft assets:
-The injury.
-Two other clear cut stars to write in pen into the top two slots.
-Two teams hesitant to take a QB sitting at picks three and four.
-Detroit's regime too desperate to save their skins to do anything brash.
-New York's regime too stubborn and conservative.
-An unconventional draft format that seemed to dampen teams' appetites to be aggressive in the top 10.
Now Tagovailoa just has to stay healthy. As much as I would have advocated for teams to have pushed chips into the middle of the table to go get him, let's not forget the risk is significant. Cross your fingers. Seeing what Tagovailoa becomes as a pro if he reaches his full potential would be one of the best story lines to follow in the entire league.
-The injury.
-Two other clear cut stars to write in pen into the top two slots.
-Two teams hesitant to take a QB sitting at picks three and four.
-Detroit's regime too desperate to save their skins to do anything brash.
-New York's regime too stubborn and conservative.
-An unconventional draft format that seemed to dampen teams' appetites to be aggressive in the top 10.
Now Tagovailoa just has to stay healthy. As much as I would have advocated for teams to have pushed chips into the middle of the table to go get him, let's not forget the risk is significant. Cross your fingers. Seeing what Tagovailoa becomes as a pro if he reaches his full potential would be one of the best story lines to follow in the entire league.
Everyone pokes fun at Dave Gettleman for never trading down. Now he’s going to do it twice in a row just to spite everyone. The Jaguars have hit the reset button on defense and an analytics driven front office will likely value the opportunity to rebuild everything around the top corner. I think Okudah is great, but not quite the sure-fire top three pick that he is being made out to be. His movement skills are special. His ability to mirror receivers in man coverage is great, but not elite.
The Pick: Jeff Okudah, CB Ohio State
Mock Prediction vs. Actual Result:
Team Match? No
Slot Difference: +3
Actual Pick: Justin Herbert, QB Oregon
Reaction:
Love vs. Herbert will be a fun storyline to track over the next five years, but an even more interesting narrative is the parallel paths of the Dolphins and Chargers franchises from this moment forward. It was an intriguing chess match between picks 3 and 4 trying to drum up an opportunity to move back, Miami trying to suppress trade value appearing spooked by the injury risks, Miami trying to convince everyone they were targeting everyone except Tagovailoa, and Los Angeles sitting at 6 as the team most likely to trade up. In the end, everyone stood pat. Obviously, the Chargers aren't going to say anything now other than proclaiming their love for Herbert, but somebody needs to sneak them some truth serum so we can get our hands on all of the juicy details behind their decision making process. This feels like one of those situations where you have two options and you convince yourself it's win win because you like both choices. Then you miss out on option 1 and you realize you don't like option 2 as much as you thought. I'm guessing L.A. thought Tua might fall for medical concerns and if not they'd just take Herbert. Now they just have Herbert. The Chargers are a franchise marooned in Los Angeles with no fan base, in desperate need of a cornerstone to hang their hat on. Tagovailoa was worth the risk to fill that role and Herbert falls short. Sure Miami might have matched any offer they put out there, but at the very least they could have forced Miami to trade some of their assets out of the conference.
I can’t let these WR’s fall any farther. Let’s make a trade! Can’t you just hear Mike Mayock waxing poetic breaking down a CeeDee Lamb pick in an alternate universe where he still works for the NFL network? Lamb will look good in a Raiders uniform and Gruden has the elite weapon he’s been looking for.
The Pick: CeeDee Lamb, WR Oklahoma
Mock Prediction vs. Actual Result:
Team Match? NO
Slot Difference: -10
Actual Pick: Derrick Brown, DT Auburn
Reaction:
I never bought into the narrative that Brown wasn't an elite prospect, but even so I still would have had a hard time going with him over players I liked better here. My love for the top two WR's is clear, but the versatility of Simmons also rates him higher for me than Brown. Regardless, it was a relief to see that a player the caliber of Brown didn't fall too far based on one slow three cone drill that didn't match the level of athleticism he displayed playing in games.
Not to be outdone, the 49ers trade right up on the heels of their former bay area rival. Kyle Shanahan will bludgeon defenses running the ball and Jeudy and Deebo Samuel will carve whatever’s left to pieces. Check mate.
The Pick: Jerry Jeudy, WR Alabama
Mock Prediction vs. Actual Result:
Team Match? NO
Slot Difference: -7
Actual Pick: Isaiah Simmons, Middle defender Clemson
Reaction:
I'm not sure why I feel apprehensive about this pick. Fear of the Cardinals not using him properly? Annoyance that elite receivers were falling in the one year the Bengals didn't have the 10th pick? Still, the Cardinals grabbed a difference making playmaker for the middle of their defense...errr uh, for the edge of their defense... err for the back end of their defense. A lot of people want him to start at linebacker, but I'm not so sure it's not better just to play him at safety. I'm worried if you line him up too close to the line of scrimmage you won't use his range properly. More than likely, they'll be in sub packages most of the time and he'll move around as a third safety anyway, but stay tuned.
Gettleman, you sly dog. The Giants patiently move down and snag the best OT available.
The Pick: Andrew Thomas, OT Georgia
Mock Prediction vs. Actual Result:
Team Match? YES
Slot Difference: +5
Actual Pick: C.J. Henderson, CB Florida
Reaction:
The Okudah slide didn't materialize and the Jaguars didn't trade up, but they still opt for corner here. I don't mind the thought process, I'm just lower than consensus on Henderson. I don't see that big of a gap between Henderson and the other tier 2 corners. Another receiving target would have fit nice in this offense and they could have looked for a slight downgrade at corner later. Better yet, Atlanta seemed hot and bothered to make something happen. Would they have traded up for Henderson?
Cleveland opts for the monster from Louisville to plug in at LT. It might be a bit of a reach, but at least they are filling their biggest need, and if you are going to fill a hole you might as well fill it with 370 lbs. to make sure it is full.
The Pick: Mekhi Becton, OT Louisville
Mock Prediction vs. Actual Result:
Team Match? No
Slot Difference: -1
Actual Pick: Jedrick Wills, OT Alabama
Reaction:
There was no trading down and getting cute with the fifth or sixth name on most peoples' OT lists (as some predicted). Good for them. I do think Wills is the second best tackle in the class, but I overthought the RT vs. LT fit. Cleveland opted to just draft the better player and figure out the details later.
OT’s fall to the Jets and they go receiver anyway to grab some sorely needed deep speed and high end WR potential. Can Ruggs anchor a receiving corps? I don’t think that’s his optimum role, but I’m excited to find out if he can do it.
The Pick: Henry Ruggs, WR Alabama
Mock Prediction vs. Actual Result:
Team Match? No
Slot Difference: -1
Actual Pick: Mekhi Becton, OT Louisville
Reaction:
The Jets bought into the narrative that WR depth trumped OT depth in this class and that it was more effective to snag a top four tackle early and wait on receiver. The fact that they were able to steal Denzel Mims at pick 59 somewhat justifies the strategy. I still argue Jeudy and Lamb have talent in this class better than everyone not named Burrow, Tagovailoa, and Young and they were worth prioritizing over the potential of picking high end talent at other positions early and waiting for alternative WR's in later rounds. The Jets were a little lucky Mims slid, but I'd still take Lamb and Ezra Cleveland over Becton and Mims.
Carolina moves down and still gets the best defender available from when they were originally on the clock. Brown is a beast. He can flash quickness and penetration skills, but his main weapon is his bull strength that double teams sometimes struggle to contend with. My favorite play of anything I watched this year was a pass play in the Auburn vs. LSU game. Off the snap, Brown fired off the line and drove the guard back so violently that even Burrow couldn’t side step in time, and Brown legitimately got a sack without even touching the quarterback.
The Pick: Derrick Brown, DT Auburn
Mock Prediction vs. Actual Result:
Team Match? YES
Slot Difference: +5
Actual Pick: Henry Ruggs, WR Alabama
Reaction:
This was one of the turning points that shaped the 2020 first round. The Raiders got the pick of the litter of the WR crop, and they chose Ruggs setting up the teams below to land receiver value they never dreamed would be available. I won't kill Gruden and Mayock for the pick. Ruggs has a unique skill set that could absolutely turn into something special. In fact, watching 2018 Alabama games before last year's draft, I fell in love with Ruggs. Coming into this year, I wanted to like him better than Jeudy in the worst way, but the more I watched I just couldn't justify it. The odds of Ruggs turning into a blue chip star are just a little longer than the top two guys.
One of the elite receivers would have been a tantalizing addition to an already interesting offense, but the Cardinals do the sensible thing moving back and investing in a quality RT prospect.
The Pick: Jedrick Wills Jr., OT Alabama
Mock Prediction vs. Actual Result:
Team Match? No
Slot Difference: +3
Actual Pick: Tristan Wirfs, OT Iowa
Reaction:
John Lynch tricked another team into trading up one slot, and the Buccaneers grabbed the last of the top tackles for some much-needed O-line depth. Not much to say here. This is right about where Wirfs should have gone. Although, Brady might not like getting shown up by an offensive lineman that is more mobile than he is.
In case you hadn’t heard , the Buccaneers just signed a 42 year old quarterback. Tampa Tom needs some blockers. I still think WIrfs will struggle out of the gate, but he at least gives them options.
The Pick: Tristan Wirfs, OT Iowa
Mock Prediction vs. Actual Result:
Team Match? YES
Slot Difference: +1
Actual Pick Javon Kinlaw, DT South Carolina
Reaction:
The 49ers follow the in vogue trend of trading a high price star for a less expensive draft pick at the same position. When's the last time San Francisco didn't draft a defensive lineman in the first round?.. (Okay, it was 2018 when they picked O-line, but Kinlaw follows Nick Bosa in '19, Soloman Thomas in '17, DeForest Buckner in '16, and Arik Armstead in '15 to make it five of the last six years. Even Matt Millen thinks they are a little obsessed with one position) I just feel like Kyle Shanahan is the strength of this team. Why not lean into that instead of putting the strain on him to suit up in his wizard garb and make magic happen? They probably think what they did later in the round qualifies as getting the best of both worlds. I'll dig into that more later, but for now let's just say I don't see it. They are overthinking things a little here.
The Cowboys trade up to snag their replacement for Byron Jones. Henderson isn’t the most physical corner in the world, but some say his man coverage skills might be better than Okudah’s. I think that’s a bit of an overstatement, but Henderson should allow the other pieces of their secondary to fit into more natural roles.
The Pick: C.J. Henderson, CB Florida
Mock Prediction vs. Actual Result:
Team Match? NO
Slot Difference: +6
Actual Pick: Jerry Jeudy, WR Alabama
Reaction:
Sorry, this has probably been repetitive. Jeudy has seemingly been a part of some counterargument for the last ten picks. Finally someone takes the plunge! Denver has assembled an impressive arsenal of star collegiate skill position players. Tracking whether they develop into potent professional offensive weapons and whether their also developing quarterback can capitalize will be fun to watch.
There has been talk of Atlanta trading up, but in this case they stay put and snag pretty good value. Kinlaw didn’t show as much power as Brown in the 2019 games that I watched but he looked strong enough for sure and had more speed.
The Pick: Javon Kinlaw South Carolina
Mock Prediction vs. Actual Result:
Team Match? No
Slot Difference: +2
Actual Pick: A.J. Terrell, CB Clemson
Reaction:
Either I'm underrating this cornerback class, the league is overrating it, or CB value is just going through the roof. Needless to say, I hadn't considered Terrell for this slot. I value performance against top-end competition far higher than anything else, and LSU dinged up Terrell pretty good. I've heard people write it off because LSU's offense was such a juggernaut. I argue NFL offenses aren't exactly going to be a step down from LSU. With the dilution level of College football talent, watching players compete against the top few teams is about as realistic of a measuring stick as you're going to get.
That said, when I went back and watched it again, Terrell was mainly getting beat by Ja'Marr Chase in man coverage. When you isolate it to a few instances of a guy getting burnt by a receiver who, as of right now looks like Odell Beckham III, I do acknowledge there is a little bit of wiggle room to absolve Terrell in this case. It reminds me of watching Patrick Peterson go up against Julio Jones in college thinking, "Oooo, Peterson is having a hard time hanging here." Then it turns out Julio is Julio and Peterson is still pretty great. This situation isn't totally analogous. Chase might or might not be in Jones' class as a prospect (we'll give that one another year to simmer), Terrell is not Peterson, and the performance flaws from the games I watched aren't equivalent. Peterson got beat on a few completions as opposed to Terrell flailing to keep up while Chase strolled into the endzone. So where does it all sort out? Somewhere in the middle. After hashing through this cornerback class I'll give Terrell the nod as CB3, but there were enough warning signs that I struggle with the value at 16. There was one plus plus prospect left on the board and Atlanta went clear need over value with their pick. It's hard to believe no one was making calls for Lamb here.
That said, when I went back and watched it again, Terrell was mainly getting beat by Ja'Marr Chase in man coverage. When you isolate it to a few instances of a guy getting burnt by a receiver who, as of right now looks like Odell Beckham III, I do acknowledge there is a little bit of wiggle room to absolve Terrell in this case. It reminds me of watching Patrick Peterson go up against Julio Jones in college thinking, "Oooo, Peterson is having a hard time hanging here." Then it turns out Julio is Julio and Peterson is still pretty great. This situation isn't totally analogous. Chase might or might not be in Jones' class as a prospect (we'll give that one another year to simmer), Terrell is not Peterson, and the performance flaws from the games I watched aren't equivalent. Peterson got beat on a few completions as opposed to Terrell flailing to keep up while Chase strolled into the endzone. So where does it all sort out? Somewhere in the middle. After hashing through this cornerback class I'll give Terrell the nod as CB3, but there were enough warning signs that I struggle with the value at 16. There was one plus plus prospect left on the board and Atlanta went clear need over value with their pick. It's hard to believe no one was making calls for Lamb here.
Bill Bellichick is looming in all of this “The sky is falling, the sky is falling, Tua’s gonna fall!!” discussion that has been rampant the last few days. If he starts to slide, how high up would New England go to get him? The outrage from non-Patriots fans if Bellichick pulls it off would be intolerable and that’s coming from someone that would be almost as equally as annoyed. It feels like a situation where everyone overreacts and then four years from now as Tagovailoa, the Trojan horse that brought down the Patriots dynasty, is retiring due to injury we all look back sheepishly at how mad we were. Regardless of the risk, I’d still take Tagovailoa in the top five picks, and that’s what I’m predicting. In this scenario, the Patriots are trading up for Herbert and we will all delight at his failure or be tortured by his success, and it doesn’t feel like there is any potential middle ground.
The Pick: Justin Herbert, QB Oregon
Mock Prediction vs. Actual Result:
Team Match? NO
Slot Difference: +11
Actual Selection: Ceedee Lamb, WR Oklahoma
Reaction:
Predicting New England to trade up for Herbert was a fools errand now that I think of it, but Dallas twiddling their thumbs until Lamb fell right in their lap was even more shocking than it would have been to see Bellichick make a bold move up the draft board for a lukewarm quarterback prospect. Even I couldn't dream this one up. Either Lamb is a knucklehead, or he has some kind of non football related problem, or there are going to be some really awkward meetings between owners and front office decision makers in a few years when they try to explain exactly why they weren't the ones to snag a game-changing franchise receiver in the middle of the first round.
18. Miami (From Pittsburgh)
The dolphins snagged a QB at the top. Being too early to invest in the next wave of OT’s, they turn to defense. I have Yetur Gross-Matos as the next best edge player. Some will laud Chaisson in this slot, but Gross-Matos is just a bigger, stronger player with speed and quickness that are at least equivalent Chaisson.
The Pick: Yetur Gross-Matos, DE Penn State
Mock Prediction vs. Actual Result:
Team Match? No
Slot Difference: -20
Actual Pick: Austin Jackson, OT USC
Reaction:
Nothing quite illustrates the flaws of evaluating prospects in a vacuum of YouTube footage more than my, "This guy stinks!!" take on Jackson. Flash forward to the draft coverage, "Jackson wasn't able to train for the 2019 season the way he normally would.. AFTER DONATING BONE MARROW TO HIS SICK SISTER." Cut to Jack Nicholson as Colonel Jessup.. Don't I feel like a ^%@#%&*#% @$$%()!#.
Still, Jackson is more of a project than I would like with a pick this high. There was a bit of a ledge in terms of prospect talent once Lamb went off the board leaving some leeway to just go ahead and take a kid you believe in and that you think can eventually fill a hole at one of the most important positions.. but the pick makes me nervous.
Still, Jackson is more of a project than I would like with a pick this high. There was a bit of a ledge in terms of prospect talent once Lamb went off the board leaving some leeway to just go ahead and take a kid you believe in and that you think can eventually fill a hole at one of the most important positions.. but the pick makes me nervous.
The Raiders moved up early to get an elite receiving weapon and Carolina slid their second round pick into the 19th slot with a pick swap. The Panthers continue to solidify the middle of their defense with a middle linebacker that has the size and instincts to excel in run support, the speed to drop into coverage , and near unanimous approval of his character.
The Pick: Kenneth Murray, LB Oklahoma
Mock Prediction vs. Actual Result:
Team Match? NO
Slot Difference: -4
Actual Pick: Damon Arnette, CB Ohio State
Reaction:
In my mock, Carolina had this pick in a double pick swap where the Raiders traded picks 12 and 19 for 7 and 38 so let me go ahead and pat myself on the back for predicting this .. I said the Raiders would trade pick 19 for a day 2 pick. The Raiders used pick 19 to take a day 2 player. Same difference right?
If Jeffrey Okudah is a poor man's Marshon Lattimore, Arnette might be a poor man's Gareon Conley who strangely also got picked by the Raiders in the first round. Conley was eventually traded for a third round pick less than three years in. Let's hope Arnette fairs a little better.
If Jeffrey Okudah is a poor man's Marshon Lattimore, Arnette might be a poor man's Gareon Conley who strangely also got picked by the Raiders in the first round. Conley was eventually traded for a third round pick less than three years in. Let's hope Arnette fairs a little better.
The jaguars continue to rebuild the secondary with a safety that is an effective blitzer that thumps ball carriers, but can also play centerfield and cover tight ends.
The Pick: Xavier McKinney, S Alabama
Mock Prediction vs. Actual Result:
Team Match? NO
Slot Difference: -16
Actual Pick: K'Lavon Chaisson, DE LSU
Reaction:
It sounds like Chaisson was one of Jacksonville's targets with their first pick and they were thrilled he was still on the board here. Chaisson himself boasts that teams should want him because he can rush, cover, and anchor against the run. I contend teams should be weary because it's questionable whether he's flexible enough to rush, big and strong enough to fight off blocks, and fast enough to cover. Weirdly he seems like a less talented version of the player they took last year in Josh Allen. Throw in their disgruntled undersized star Yannick Ngakoue (who the Jaguars are threatening to keep) and I'm not sure what they are going to do with all of these guys. All of the lean speed in the world won't help you if you're getting bullied off the snap every play.
The Eagles need receivers so bad that even non-Eagles fans want them to pick WR’s. I won’t disappoint here. Denzel Mims has athleticism to spare, but he’s not as raw of a receiving talent as you might think. The Eagles get a fine candidate to develop into a WR1.
The Pick: Denzel Mims, WR Baylor
Mock Prediction vs. Actual Result:
Team Match? NO
Slot Difference: -38
Actual Pick: Jalen Reagor, WR TCU
Reaction:
I thought Mims would give them more size, versatility, and upside than Reagor, but I can see this being a good fit too. Reagor will give the Philly WR corps a much needed injection of energy. A lot of people were aghast Justin Jefferson didn't get the nod here. Let's calm down. It's not unreasonable to like Jefferson better than Reagor, but they are at least in the same ballpark in terms of what tier they are on and Reagor's skill set matches what Philadelphia needs a little better. It's not egregious to go with one over the other and to be honest, if Reagor played opposite Ja'Marr Chase with Joe Burrow as his quarterback and Jefferson played with TCU's quarterback I'm fairly certain we aren't having this conversation and we might even be talking about what a steal the Eagles got at pick 21.
Linebacker isn’t super high on Minnesota’s needs list, but another athletic playmaker will be a good fit in a defense that is retooling a bit this offseason.
The Pick: Patrick Queen, LB LSU
Mock Prediction vs. Actual Result:
Team Match? No
Slot Difference: -6
Actual Pick: Justin Jefferson, WR LSU
Reaction:
Well I got this one right!.. sort of. A lot of people peg this as a "can't believe this guy is still on the board. Run to the podium" pick. Like I said with the Eagles pick, this is just about the right range for Jefferson within a tier of WR's that are similar in value: Reagor, Mims, Higgins, Shenault. Granted, all of these guys offer something a little different. Their fits vary team by team and Jefferson is probably the safest of the bunch for Minnesota. I was thinking this would have been a good application of the "take advantage of receiver depth" strategy: take the best non WR available at 22 and wait a few picks to fill the receiver need at 25. The way they played it worked out better for them I think. Jefferson makes the most sense for them in that he has a similar skill set to Adam Thielen and now they can pair the two together and present a lot of different looks with the same personnel grouping. So they went ahead and secured their man at 22, and there was still enough flexibility in the corner market to allow them to trade down at 25 to acquire more assets and still fill their second biggest need at the end of the first.
Denver moves back twice to pick up some extra assets. Now they fill a big need with a solid corner prospect.
The Pick: Jeff Gladney, CB TCU
Mock Prediction vs. Actual Result:
Team Match? No
Slot Difference: -8
Actual Pick: Kenneth Murray, LB Oklahoma
Reaction:
The Chargers traded their second and third round picks to move back in and get their favorite linebacker. A lot of people think they gave up too much for a player whose skill set isn't valuable enough in today's pass happy league. I think it's fine. It's tough giving up a third round pick in a draft that is likely to have quite a few gems picked in the 30 to 60 range, but Murray is a great fit for them. Queen has more of the coverage skills that draft analysts covet these days, but Murray gives the Chargers some coverage ability to go with higher upside defending the run and rushing the passer along with leadership skills that everyone raves about.
With the two best LB prospects off the board, the Saints opt to add depth across from Marshon Lattimore. Fulton will struggle against elite receivers, but he should be a solid CB2.
The Pick: Kristian Fulton, CB LSU
Mock Prediction vs. Actual Result:
Team Match? No
Slot Difference: -37
Actual Pick: Cesar Ruiz, C Michigan
Reaction:
This fit makes sense. New Orleans knows their bread and butter and they refuse to let their strengths weaken. I'm not as enamored with Ruiz as others, but enough people love him that I won't raise my eyebrows too much here.
It’s a run on LSU players as the Vikings seek to build back up their receiving corps. Jefferson might seem a little duplicative to Adam Thielen, but both guys should be effective playing inside and outside. In a way it will make them more versatile, and the relief to Kirk Cousins of replacing Stephon Diggs with a high character player that doesn’t need to be spoon fed touches should be palpable.
The Pick: Justin Jefferson, WR LSU
Mock Prediction vs. Actual Result:
Team Match? Yes
Slot Difference: +3
Actual Pick: Brandon Aiyuk, WR Arizona State
Reaction:
John Lynch is getting a lot of positive buzz wheeling and dealing and finding "perfect fits" for his team. What is he doing really?
-Trade for the savvy veteran you need in Emanuel Sanders then let him walk because the draft is rich with WR talent.
-Trade away a star defender who is due for a rich contract, DeForest Buckner, and pay a less rich contract to a different, possibly emerging, D-lineman, Arik Armstead.
-Use the pick earned from giving up Buckner to replace him with a new young star talent to groom under a cheaper contract.
-Trade for a disgruntled star OT, Trent Williams to replace retiring LT Joe Staley.
-Dissect the WR draft class and go get the guy the fits your scheme the best.
As a whole, it has the scent of a GM pretending to be the smartest guy in the room overthinking and not maximizing his resources. Just draft the best players and bend your scheme to feature their talents. Puff out your chest all you want about how good Kinlaw is going to be and how highly you had Aiyuk rated. How about Jeudy and Madebuike/Blacklock/Gallimore instead? The net talent on the roster would have been better off, and they could have likely moved back to add picks, still get one of the DT's, and avoid having to give up assets to trade up and grab their targeted WR prospect.
-Trade for the savvy veteran you need in Emanuel Sanders then let him walk because the draft is rich with WR talent.
-Trade away a star defender who is due for a rich contract, DeForest Buckner, and pay a less rich contract to a different, possibly emerging, D-lineman, Arik Armstead.
-Use the pick earned from giving up Buckner to replace him with a new young star talent to groom under a cheaper contract.
-Trade for a disgruntled star OT, Trent Williams to replace retiring LT Joe Staley.
-Dissect the WR draft class and go get the guy the fits your scheme the best.
As a whole, it has the scent of a GM pretending to be the smartest guy in the room overthinking and not maximizing his resources. Just draft the best players and bend your scheme to feature their talents. Puff out your chest all you want about how good Kinlaw is going to be and how highly you had Aiyuk rated. How about Jeudy and Madebuike/Blacklock/Gallimore instead? The net talent on the roster would have been better off, and they could have likely moved back to add picks, still get one of the DT's, and avoid having to give up assets to trade up and grab their targeted WR prospect.
His dad was selected 23rd overall by the Bills. Antoine Winfield Jr. goes 26th overall to a different AFC east team. At 5’9”, Winfield gets caught in traffic at times coming up to play run defense, but overall he has good instincts and is adept at making plays in coverage.
The Pick: Antoine Winfield Jr., S Minnesota
Mock Prediction vs. Actual Result:
Team Match? No
Slot Difference: -19
Actual Pick: Jordan Love, QB Utah State
Reaction:
The Packers sent shockwaves through the football world picking a developmental quarterback in the first round. The pronouncement went into the cacophonous sports media chamber of echoes and almost immediately came roaring right back in Green Bay's face.
"A quarterback? Why Now? Why him?? Shouldn't they have drafted a receiver in the first round??? WHAT, they drafted a power running back in the second round???? AND an H back in the third?????This is the deepest WR class in years, couldn't they have drafted ONE receiver for Rodgers??????"
Ok.
As a sad Bengals fan whose team took a divebomb into perpetual infamy as one of the world's most hapless franchises that I still insist was primarily fueled by the team's inability to replace their quarterback for a decade, (Yeah, that's right. Whine about Mike Brown and the small scouting department all you want.. Dave Shula, Bruce Coslet's glasses, Dick Lebeau in a superman costume. Whatever. It wasn't abject dysfunction that sunk the team. Boomer Esiason tailed off and they tried to replace him with career backups. And rookies. And veterans. And rookies. And veterans.. Over and over and over again and it blew up in their face over and over and over again. They stunk because their quarterbacks stunk. Disagree? Go talk to Donald Hollis and Eric Wilhelm and David Klingler and Jay Shroeder..not the Super Bowl version and Jeff Blake and 36 year-old Boomer Esiason back before 40 was the new 35 and Neil O'Donnell..again, not the Super Bowl version and Paul Justin and Akili Smith and Scott Mitchell and Gus Frerotte and Jon Kitna. They'll have my back.)...I like the pick. If you have no succession plan or the wrong succession plan at quarterback it will send your team into a tailspin.
I see the potential with Love. He needs work, but drafting him is a better plan than taking Herbert. The high ceiling is there and there are enough flashes resembling top-ten-caliber NFL quarterback talent (and I'm not just talking about the physical tools) to suggest he has a reasonable chance of hitting the upper tiers of his potential.
Picking the wrong quarterback can be disastrous, but waiting too long for the right prospect to come along is often worse. Now they have a ball of clay they can start molding. After having him in their building for a few years, the amount of information they'll have on him will be infinitely greater than what they have today setting them up to make a much better decision whether to launch him into orbit as the face of the franchise or toss him back into the pile and take another shot at winning the lottery with a different prospect. They'll get skewered once again if they move on without Love getting a fair shot at starting, but teams too often dig themselves into a hole worrying too much about the optics of decisions rather than just trusting their own judgement. There's an underlying mob mentality standard of what teams are obligated to do and not do.
"They have to start him. You can't draft a player in the first round and sit him on the bench."
"Well, if he's actually good he'd be able to start right away."
We've already established no one bats over .500 picking these guys. It's okay to have a plan, but when you get more information you have to re-evaluate and adjust. There's more than one road to paradise. Sure, it would be great to draft a franchise guy, plug him in, and ride the wave of elite quarterback play while you construct a viable roster around him, but those types of guys can take years to pop up and who knows if you'll be in a position to snag them or even recognize the value when you see it? It takes a lot of luck to hit with that strategy.
You happen to have a top five pick at the right time.
Other QB-needy teams like the Bears, the Jets and the Browns mis-evaluate and Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahommes fall out of the top five.
No one sees Russell Wilson coming and you happen to be the team that finally pulls the trigger.
The point is, you have to have an open mind trying to acquire the right guy and be ready to go off script.. like taking a shot on a player you like when your hall-of-fame quarterback still has another couple years in the tank and all of the current logic says don't draft and develop because it negates a chunk of the potential advantage of having a quality starter playing on a rookie contract.
And when you do take the plunge, develop the guy however you see fit. Every person doesn't learn the same way at the same pace. Some thrive in trial by fire. Some are late bloomers. Quarterbacks are no different. Insisting anyone worth drafting should be able to start early is short-sighted.
"Okay, but what about helping Rodgers?"
Way too much post-draft analysis centers around overestimating early career draft pick contributions. People imagine what a player can be and pencil in that level of production immediately. There's a Kenny Rogers/Aaron Rodgers joke in here somewhere about counting your money that I can't quite put my finger on. Even the best receivers in this class would have had marginal impact on the fate of the 2020 packers and picking outside the top 20, the chances of drafting a year one contributor aren't as high as many are insinuating. So why are we fretting about the packers front office not supporting the back half of Rodgers' career? That ship sailed after the 2018 draft (Note, they did draft three receivers in 2018 at the appropriate time to get weapons in the pipeline). The Packers said as much in some of their response to the criticism of their draft: They didn't take a receiver because they just didn't like anyone on the board when they picked more than the guys already on their roster.
"A quarterback? Why Now? Why him?? Shouldn't they have drafted a receiver in the first round??? WHAT, they drafted a power running back in the second round???? AND an H back in the third?????This is the deepest WR class in years, couldn't they have drafted ONE receiver for Rodgers??????"
Ok.
As a sad Bengals fan whose team took a divebomb into perpetual infamy as one of the world's most hapless franchises that I still insist was primarily fueled by the team's inability to replace their quarterback for a decade, (Yeah, that's right. Whine about Mike Brown and the small scouting department all you want.. Dave Shula, Bruce Coslet's glasses, Dick Lebeau in a superman costume. Whatever. It wasn't abject dysfunction that sunk the team. Boomer Esiason tailed off and they tried to replace him with career backups. And rookies. And veterans. And rookies. And veterans.. Over and over and over again and it blew up in their face over and over and over again. They stunk because their quarterbacks stunk. Disagree? Go talk to Donald Hollis and Eric Wilhelm and David Klingler and Jay Shroeder..not the Super Bowl version and Jeff Blake and 36 year-old Boomer Esiason back before 40 was the new 35 and Neil O'Donnell..again, not the Super Bowl version and Paul Justin and Akili Smith and Scott Mitchell and Gus Frerotte and Jon Kitna. They'll have my back.)...I like the pick. If you have no succession plan or the wrong succession plan at quarterback it will send your team into a tailspin.
I see the potential with Love. He needs work, but drafting him is a better plan than taking Herbert. The high ceiling is there and there are enough flashes resembling top-ten-caliber NFL quarterback talent (and I'm not just talking about the physical tools) to suggest he has a reasonable chance of hitting the upper tiers of his potential.
Picking the wrong quarterback can be disastrous, but waiting too long for the right prospect to come along is often worse. Now they have a ball of clay they can start molding. After having him in their building for a few years, the amount of information they'll have on him will be infinitely greater than what they have today setting them up to make a much better decision whether to launch him into orbit as the face of the franchise or toss him back into the pile and take another shot at winning the lottery with a different prospect. They'll get skewered once again if they move on without Love getting a fair shot at starting, but teams too often dig themselves into a hole worrying too much about the optics of decisions rather than just trusting their own judgement. There's an underlying mob mentality standard of what teams are obligated to do and not do.
"They have to start him. You can't draft a player in the first round and sit him on the bench."
"Well, if he's actually good he'd be able to start right away."
We've already established no one bats over .500 picking these guys. It's okay to have a plan, but when you get more information you have to re-evaluate and adjust. There's more than one road to paradise. Sure, it would be great to draft a franchise guy, plug him in, and ride the wave of elite quarterback play while you construct a viable roster around him, but those types of guys can take years to pop up and who knows if you'll be in a position to snag them or even recognize the value when you see it? It takes a lot of luck to hit with that strategy.
You happen to have a top five pick at the right time.
Other QB-needy teams like the Bears, the Jets and the Browns mis-evaluate and Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahommes fall out of the top five.
No one sees Russell Wilson coming and you happen to be the team that finally pulls the trigger.
The point is, you have to have an open mind trying to acquire the right guy and be ready to go off script.. like taking a shot on a player you like when your hall-of-fame quarterback still has another couple years in the tank and all of the current logic says don't draft and develop because it negates a chunk of the potential advantage of having a quality starter playing on a rookie contract.
And when you do take the plunge, develop the guy however you see fit. Every person doesn't learn the same way at the same pace. Some thrive in trial by fire. Some are late bloomers. Quarterbacks are no different. Insisting anyone worth drafting should be able to start early is short-sighted.
"Okay, but what about helping Rodgers?"
Way too much post-draft analysis centers around overestimating early career draft pick contributions. People imagine what a player can be and pencil in that level of production immediately. There's a Kenny Rogers/Aaron Rodgers joke in here somewhere about counting your money that I can't quite put my finger on. Even the best receivers in this class would have had marginal impact on the fate of the 2020 packers and picking outside the top 20, the chances of drafting a year one contributor aren't as high as many are insinuating. So why are we fretting about the packers front office not supporting the back half of Rodgers' career? That ship sailed after the 2018 draft (Note, they did draft three receivers in 2018 at the appropriate time to get weapons in the pipeline). The Packers said as much in some of their response to the criticism of their draft: They didn't take a receiver because they just didn't like anyone on the board when they picked more than the guys already on their roster.
Within the context of finding a player to help Rodgers, they are probably right. That's not to say no one drafted in the range of the Packers' picks or later will develop to be better than Marques Valdes-Scantling, but the chances are good no one will be better in 2020 or 2021.
The lone exception to all of this is running back. Rookie RB's chip in from day 1 at a much higher frequency than any other position and oh by the way, the Packers took a running back in round 2! Disagree with the prospect they chose if you want, but there is so much variability in the accuracy of these evaluations with even the good front offices. I'm not going to froth at the mouth over whether they selected the appropriate day 2 running back. Let's see some games first.
Time will tell whether they chose the correct paths at the forks in the road with these 2020 draft selections, but I think the approach they are taking is correct. C'mon now people. I get it. Brian Gutekunst gets it. Even Kenny Rogers gets it (RIP)! Chill out a little and let's just enjoy watching this storyline unfold.
27. SeattleThe lone exception to all of this is running back. Rookie RB's chip in from day 1 at a much higher frequency than any other position and oh by the way, the Packers took a running back in round 2! Disagree with the prospect they chose if you want, but there is so much variability in the accuracy of these evaluations with even the good front offices. I'm not going to froth at the mouth over whether they selected the appropriate day 2 running back. Let's see some games first.
Time will tell whether they chose the correct paths at the forks in the road with these 2020 draft selections, but I think the approach they are taking is correct. C'mon now people. I get it. Brian Gutekunst gets it. Even Kenny Rogers gets it (RIP)! Chill out a little and let's just enjoy watching this storyline unfold.
Whether they trade down like usual or stick in this slot to grab an edge defender, this feels like a good spot for Chaisson. I wanted to slide him down a little because I think he’s been a little overrated from what I’ve read and listened to, but more than likely he’ll be a first round pick. To me he’s undersized and not strong enough to hold up as a DE, but too big to be 4-3 linebacker. He’d be best as a 3-4 OLB, but I’m not sure who it is that is going to come get him.
The Pick: K’Lavon Chaisson, DE LSU
Mock Prediction vs. Actual Result:
Team Match? No
Slot Difference: +7
Actual Pick: Jordyn Brooks, LB Texas Tech
Reaction:
Seattle goes a little off script while staying in character at the same time. They didn't trade out of the first round like they often do, but opted to stay put for a guy not commonly considered a day one player from a school that typically isn't good at defense at a low value position that isn't one of their top needs. I'm sure Russell Wilson is thrilled.
Baltimore might actually be the team keen on Chaisson if he falls this far. Alternatively, there’s been a lot of Patrick Queen talk in recent mock drafts. In this case, neither player fell to them and they will have to settle for a different LSU player. Grant Delpit was considered a top 15 player heading into the year and his stock has since fallen based on the perception that his play slipped a little from 2018 to 2019. I still see him as a high end safety prospect and Earl Thomas isn’t going to play forever. This would be classic Baltimore for a player like this to fall right into their laps.
The Pick: Grant Delpit, S LSU
Mock Prediction vs. Actual Result:
Team Match? No
Slot Difference: -16
Actual Pick: Patrick Queen, LB LSU
Reaction:
In classic Baltimore fashion, they sit at the bottom of the first round and fill one of their top needs with a player that wasn't supposed to fall to them. Is Queen as valuable of a player as he is being heralded? Let's hit pause on that, but for now I'll join the masses in gritting our teeth and shaking our jealous fists at the serendipitous Ravens front office. For the record, I still think they should have drafted Delpit even with Queen on the board. They are going to regret letting him fall to Cleveland.
The Titans feel like a team that is going to draft defensive line every year. There’s a cluster of DT’s worth going in this range, but I think Neville Gallimore gives them the best blend of size, strength and penetration.
The Pick: Neville Gallimore, DT Oklahoma
Mock Prediction vs. Actual Result:
Team Match? No
Slot Difference: -53
Actual Pick: Isaiah Wilson, OT Georgia
Reaction:
I thought Tennessee would take a beefy defensive lineman. Instead they took a beefy offensive lineman. I don't think people are questioning this pick enough. Sure his size and power fit nice with their desire to feature a power running game, but his susceptibility to any pass rush moves whatsoever does not fit with their desire to maybe occasionally pass the ball every once in a while. Maybe they can teach him, but if they plan to start him from day 1, they might regret it.
30. Green Bay
Aaron Rodgers might have a few years of prime left. It’s past time the Packers invested highly into offensive weapons. Jalen Reagor is the kind of explosive talent that would look outstanding across from Davante Adams. Reagor is a little shorter, but he gets down field in a hurry and has plenty of leaping ability to jump up and make plays. Maybe he should go a little higher, but seeing what Reagor can do with his talent with someone like Rodgers throwing to him is so intriguing that I refused to consider allowing anyone else to pick Reagor.The Pick: Jalen Reagor, WR TCU
Mock Prediction vs. Actual Result:
Team Match? No
Slot Difference: +9
Actual Pick: Noah Igbinoghene, CB Auburn
Reaction:
Miami went DB, but not the position I expected. They appear to be buying the narrative that corner is the second most important position. Maybe this also speaks to their thoughts about Xavien Howard long term. I just thought the value at safety was too good to pass up here. Igbinoghene has pretty good physical tools, but he feels really raw watching him. His steps and movements in man coverage look really inefficient, and he's grabby like a three-year-old when a new kid comes to his house and tries to play with his toys. He is another one of these classic late round 1 project picks. Miami is swinging for the fences with this one.
The 49ers managed to trade up five slots for Jeudy and hang on to pick 31. If they stay in this slot, I like them to go after IOL. In this case they have the pick of the litter and they go with Cesar Ruiz. I’ve seen others that are a lot higher on Ruiz and think he’s the clear number 1 center/guard prospect. I think it’s a little more muddled. He’s strong, but not overpowering. He runs past blocks a little more than I would like. His quickness is his biggest strength. I’d move him to guard where he can dig in a little harder and maximize his power and pull more effectively to utilize his speed.
The Pick: Cesar Ruiz, C Michigan
Mock Prediction vs. Actual Result:
Team Match? No
Slot Difference: +7
Actual Pick: Jeff Gladney, CB TCU
Reaction:
I like this move for Minnesota. They slide down six slots and get better value for a sore need. Gladney is a lunch pail corner that seems perfect for Mike Zimmer and I wouldn't say there's an ocean's width gap between him and the CB's taken 12 or 15 picks earlier. I still worry he'll have early growing pains and a low ceiling long term, but I get where the Vikings are going with this.
The Jets opted for WR earlier and now they move back in for O-line depth. Ezra Cleveland is a guy that has drawn a lot of late buzz as the fifth OT. I think he’ll eventually move to guard, but either way, he should help the Jets.
The Pick: Ezra Cleveland, OT Boise State
Mock Prediction vs. Actual Result:
Team Match? No
Slot Difference: -26
Actual Pick: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB LSU
Reaction:
I yelped out loud when I heard this pick. What a fun player to watch. Putting him in such a great situation to optimize his amazing talents is like eating a melty chocolate chip cookie after a deeply satisfying meal. He flew under the radar because he doesn't have the size and speed of some of the other headliners in the class, and at 5'7" and 208 lbs. he's not an ideal runner to pound in between the tackles. Don't get lulled to sleep though. Whatever he lacks in size and speed he makes up for it with receiving ability, short area elusiveness and his greatest weapon: contact balance, contact balance, and more contact balance. Do you think Andy Reid knows how to use a player with that skill set? Somewhere Brian Westbrook is nodding and smiling a mischievous grin that he and Emmit Smith's love child has found the perfect home (not like a child that is going to take his parents' athleticism and have this exponential explosion of skill that outshines his family in a Ken Griffey Junior sort of way, but like the kind of child that has observable traits from both parents and has some really really strong seasons prompting announcers to proclaim at least once a week, "Well he has really good blood lines!").
