Well, it’s November and 11 weeks are in the books. What time is it Bengals fans? That’s right, time to start the draft watch. Cincinnati managed there first win a few weeks back, and according to Ocho Cinco, they’re on their way to 8-8!..errr, umm, 7-8-1 (sorry guys, I started this one a few weeks back and didn’t get a chance to finish until now). It has been a rough year for the orange and black full of what might have been’s, if’s, and maybe’s. Either way, football despair is back in the queen city complete with all the not-so-classic jokes about no touchdowns at PBS and handing out tickets as punishment. The ’08 team is even showing signs of duplicating the stunt perfected by past Bengals squads from the “glory” years: render themselves irrelevant with a painfully slow start then rally for pointless victories that do little other than drum up false hope among the faithful and ruin their draft position. 2008 however might not be a bad year to tack on a few extra wins. This year’s draft class looks thin on elite prospects and fat on mid-round 1 talent. With rookie draft pick salaries still out of control, finding value selecting in the top three is tough to come by. Some franchises stranded at the top of round one, ease the pain simply by selecting the best player available at big money positions like QB and OT. Teams not in the market for those positions just have to hope a freak of nature at a different position falls into their lap a la DE Mario Williams or WR Calvin Johnson.
Unfortunately, the Bengals late season surge hasn’t quite come to fruition, and they are still sitting in the number 2 slot. Their tie at least does protect them from the awkward strength of schedule and coin flip draft order tie breakers and they could jump up a slot or two if they can muster a win these last three weeks.
What do they need?
The strange thing about the Bengals is although an outsider will claim their roster lacks direction and has little to no talent, if you ask anyone who follows the team what they need, they have to think about it a little. The biggest thing that comes to mind is defensive line. They have shown flashes of improvement this year, and there is still hope that players like young DT’s Pat Sims and Domata Peko have what it takes to keep the team’s D from getting trampled every week. On the other hand, the pass rush is still non-existent despite big contracts being doled out to Robert Geathers and Antwan Odom the past couple of years.
Elsewhere, there are big decisions to make in the free agent market. Needs at WR depend on whether or not the team steps up to the plate to keep Houshmandzadeh. Along the offensive line, do they give up on Levi Jones? How do they feel about Stacy Andrews? Do they pony up a mega-contract to keep the prematurely franchised RT or let him walk? The RB situation is a little too shaky for comfort. They could stick with Benson, but that path seems like it could only end bad. Perry proved this year he’s not up to the task. They could bring in someone new but most likely they tab Benson their number one guy and hope Watson or Perry come on strong next year. At QB, Carson is still the man for a few more years. The linbacking corps and secondary boast a lot of potential, but can’t seem to shake the injury bug long enough to shake the team’s reputation of being defenseless on defense.
Ranking out their draft needs, their offensive line play has to improve. Rookie Anthony Collins could be promising, and Stacy Andrews has athletic ability that is recognized throughout the league. Whether or not the team sees either as the long-term solution at tackle determines if they start over at the position and draft the best available blocker in round 1, or stick with what they got. The defense needs a player at any position who can make plays behind the line of scrimmage. If they think there’s someone who fits that description, they have to grab him.
What will be Available?
This year’s senior class looks even weaker than in years past and the 2009 first round draft crop will most likely rely heavily on underclass talent. There is still a month until the deadline for underclassmen to declare draft eligible, but it never hurts to speculate.
As of right, no player has been tabbed as the favorite for the number one pick. If draft eligible underclassmen quarterbacks Sam Bradford and Matthew Stafford leave school early, they could be the favorites to fill that void assuming Detroit still lays claim to the number one pick. Past that it is a free for all, to be decided in the coming months of workouts and exhibition games.
I’m sorry to say Bengals fans, any team looking for a pass rusher north of 250 lbs is going to be disappointed. Unless they finally pull that trigger on that 3-4 defense, coaches most likely won’t find a suitable QB sniping lineman in the top 10. Even the group of hybrid LB/DE types doesn’t appear to have all that much blue-chip talent. There is some depth at defensive tackle that might fill out Cincinnti’s rotation in the middle of their line quite nicely. However, top candidates B.J. Raji (B.C) and underclassmen Gerald McCoy (Oklahoma) and Terrence Cody (Alabama) have some convincing to do to elevate into the top five. Cody is enormous at 375 lbs, but lacks consistency while McCoy also still has some developing to do.
The running back position has two intriguing underclassmen candidates and not a whole lot of depth coming from the senior class other than fringe second round candidates. At the top though, the Bengals will most likely be tempted by juniors Chris Wells (OSU) and Knowshon Moreno (Georgia). Both players are solid, but neither has quite the home run potential to warrant a selection prior to addressing Cincy’s offensive line woes.
The WR group looks similar to the RB’s; little more than second round prospects in the senior class and a few younger guys with potential, but who will most likely grade out in the 10 to 25 range of round one. Michael Crabtree from Texas Tech has the skills but needs to show flashy speed numbers during workouts to inch into the top ten. Percy Harvin (Florida) and Jeremy Maclin (Missouri) have the jets but lack the polish. The tight end position has seen numerous injury casualties, but Oklahoma State’s Brandon Pettigrew is the front runner to claim the obligatory token round one tight end slot that seems inevitable each year. He doesn’t have the downfield prowess you would expect from a first round talent, but his blocking is fierce and scouts aren’t used to that from college tight end prospects.
Two big ten CB’s lead the way among defensive backs. Malcolm Jenkins (OSU) looks to fit in in the 8 to 15 range, while Vontae Davis (Illinois) currently sits in the number two slot as a 10 to 20 guy. The best of the rest and the top safety talent have yet to be sorted out.
2008 was the year of the running back. Chris Johnson, Steve Slaton, and Matt Forte are already threatening all-pro status, while Jonathan Stewart, Rashard Mendenhall, Darren McFadden, and Felix Jones all showed potential but were set back a year by injuries. Is 2009 the year of the offensive tackle? Jason Smith (Baylor), Eugene Monroe (Virginia), and Michael Oher (Ole’ Miss.) all are currently considered early to mid round 1 talents, and the trio could be joined by underclassmen Andre Smith (Alabama). Several others could threaten to sneak into the bottom of the first round. Early mock drafts have tabbed Smith as the early favorite to go to Cincinnati.
If there’s a position with enough depth to challenge OT for top 2009 crop, it’s linebacker. USC alone might place their whole linebacking corps in the first round. Outside of Trojan backers Rey Maualuga, Brian Cushing, and Clay Matthews, OSU’s James Laurinaitis also fits in the round 1 picture. The talent doesn’t exactly drop off from their either. On top of all that, the guy currently seen as head of the class at the position is Aaron Curry (Wake Forest). Pay attention Bengals fans, we just might have something here (because as I’ve been typing our boys took down the ‘Skins and leap frogged the Rams and Chiefs to the fourth slot). Curry is big and strong and is a shoe-in strong side linebacker. What’s that you say? The Bengals have decent guys like Jeanty at OLB, but can’t seem to keep anyone healthy? Curry has started for three years and has yet to miss a game. He is too strong for tight ends and too fast for tackles. Sounds like a playmaker to me. For anyone hoping for a tackle or a running back, just picture this guy as the strong side linebacker opposite Keith Rivers. It sounds pretty darn good to me. Now, hopefully they don’t win too much and screw it up.
