It is becoming an annual tradition. Draft season has to begin with a conversation about Justin Fields.
Ever since Carolina’s 2023 season started to implode, Fields was once again on a collision course with a freight train of number overall 1 pick hype. Last year, Chicago’s front office flipped the switch and diverted the train before an ugly crash occurred. This year Fields got pushed off the tracks, stuffed in an unmarked vehicle with tinted windows, and dumped in Pittsburgh.
Based on the meager trade market for Fields and little more than a shrug from the media, consensus seems to have settled. The league is basically turning their back on him, analysts think he’s a middle to low tier guy and the search is on for the next shiny object.
This might be my “AM I ON CRAZY PILLS”moment of the draft season. Usually it relates to a discrepancy between my take and consensus about a prospect in the current year’s class, but Fields gets the crown for now.
Big time throws. Big time reads. Solving unsolvable problems with his legs. All of the ingredients are there. I’m not talking about potential. Fields flashes actual ability to do everything that a top 10 QB needs to do. Is it consistent enough? No. Did something look amiss at times with his development last year? Absolutely. You could see the gears in his mind grinding. The confidence that normally lubricates well enough for him to find a solution each play dried up at times and his whole system was seizing up. But the flashes are there. Nothing has changed.
People kept saying the team was finally supporting him. What did they do really? They added D.J. Moore and… ? They upgraded the offensive line a little. The defense started playing better. Everything other than the Moore addition was incremental. Yet the offensive coaching staff (OC since fired) and the secondary weapons stayed just as uninspiring as ever.
People argue a good quarterback should shine despite these obstacles. The shine is there! I don’t know what people are watching. I could see being turned off that top 10 is in the realm of possibility like i still think it is but it’s pretty clear there’s something there that warrants more than tossing him on the scrap heap. Completion percentages. Sack rates. The statistics are all over the place. I get it. But when you watch him play and you see what happens on each series of downs you can see more potential than what is adding up in the results.
Of all of the options available this offseason for quarterback replacements. I would still take Fields ahead of all of them. That includes Baker Mayfield. That includes Kirk Cousins. That even includes the number one overall pick. I understand i’m further out on an island than just about anyone here, but i think the league is making a huge mistake.
A 6th round pick?? That’s all he was worth to anyone? Drew Lock and Sam Howell were both traded for more than that. Sam Darnold got another contract . Fields isn’t a better option??
Some will point to his contract with the upcoming fifth year option as a detractor for acquiring Fields. Are we sure that makes sense? Good. Great. Extend Fields now! What is his market? Apparently pretty low considering the league doesn’t value him high, but let’s just assume it’s something higher like $30 million/ year. I’m not so sure a reclamation project that blossoms for middle of the market money isn’t the new golden goose that everyone thinks teams have when they snag a good QB on a rookie contract.
The market deficiency has caught up. Elite starter money continues to skyrocket. Let’s pretend you draft a starting QB. How many rookies can perform well enough to contend for a Super Bowl in year 1? Hardly any and it’s especially true if you consider how bad a roster has to be to have the opportunity to take the best QB prospects. It takes a year and half for even the best players. If all goes to plan and the pick hits, the window is much narrower than everyone thinks. Year three begins, the contract extension whispers already start kicking in, and the front office needs to start shifting resources to prepare the roster to sustain one of the mega deals that a successful quarterback commands. Best case scenario the window with the contract advantage is maybe two years but probably more like 1.5.
If Fields actually is a top 10 QB like i think he can be, is it more advantageous to have him at $30 million or to have a higher end QB with less of a supporting cast? Patrick Mahommes, ok. Josh Allen, fine. The list of players that can contend with a modest supporting cast thins out pretty quick
If the potential contract advantage wasn’t enough, the Bears had Fields AND the number one overall pick in a year where there are hot QB prospects and dire quarterback needs throughout the league that have to be filled. That first pick is maybe the sixth or seventh most valuable trade piece in the entire league (behind Mahommes, Allen, Burrow, Herbert, Jackson, .. maybe Stroud? )! Personally there are a few more guys i rate more valuable than the prospect of Williams, but read the room! Their competitors don’t think that. Keep that poker face tight and sell to the highest bidder. They could have had a top half QB on an advantageous contract with a war chest of another two or three high draft picks on top of what they already have in their back pocket. That is without even considering the possible haul for the 1 to 2 then 2 to 6ish double trade down magic that was realistically on the table. They could have put the league in a headlock and been the bully of the NFC for the next three to five years! The offense looked better with Moore as WR1. How about Moore as WR2 with an LT to go with the RT they drafted last year along with the competent OC they hired AND more future extra top picks??
Instead they decided to sell Fields at rock bottom and keep the pick. As soon as they make that first selection it’s like buying a new car. The value depreciates. I’d say even a great prospect has less than a 50% chance of appreciating or even sustaining what the pick is worth now. My Williams takes will follow, but i’m setting his odds even worse than that.
Unfortunately i do not have a twin working as a GM in the league and everyone decided just to sit on their hands. Now they’ve handed Pittsburgh (of all places) a get out of QB purgatory free card.
I don’t get it.
I’ll take my Fields love one step further with a prediction as if i haven’t gone far enough out on a limb. Either Justin Fields catches fire with the Steelers or they can’t support him and he sinks even farther down the QB hierarchy. When he does a team with a penchant for distressed quarterback assets that needs a transition plan from their current aging starter is going to step up and Fields is going to flourish. Mark it down. Justin Fields is going win a Super Bowl within the next five years with the Los Angeles Rams
