2022 Draft Class Debrief… FINALLY

Sorry everyone. I’m a little delinquent here, but i wanted to get my takes on the draft class on record before.. well, before next year anyway.

We’ve had about half a season to get our first look at the 2022 Bengals draft class in regular season action.  Let’s refresh a little bit on how the draft played out and how the new faces fit into the roster.

My impulse reaction to the Bengals draft class was.. hmm. Maybe i even gave it a shoulder shrug.  After staring at it a while, i came to terms with it..i might have even warmed up to it.

Going into the draft my feeling was okay maybe CB in round 1 if the value is right but let’s hammer home trench depth, grab a TE later and maybe even address special teams (returner, punter) or WR depth. In the end they stayed more well rounded. Splitting between DB’s and lineman, they sprinkled in a little depth at most of the need positions, ignored offense except for one day 3 pick, and  raised some eyebrows by selecting two players designated as safeties.

The biggest wake up call for me was  the reality of drafting in the 31 slot. Each time they picked my reaction wasn’t disappointment but  it was definitely less than a fist pump (okay maybe there was a celebration dance with the Dax Hill pick, but that was at least partly the thrill of hitting their pick in my mock draft in addition to liking the player).  Even factoring  in the general lack of spice in the class, i couldn’t shake the feeling with each pick that the Bengals were one step behind.. One round even. But was it their fault or just the pick 31 effect? Dissecting it, you almost have to bump everything down a tier when comparing what they did to what they have been able to accomplish in the past.  Think of Dax Hill not in the vein of JaMar Chase as much as in the context of Tee Higgins and Jackson Carman. Think of Cam Taylor-Brit  comparatively to Logan Wilson and Joseph Ossai. Zach Carter is more like Akeem Davis-Gaither and Cam Sample. Cordell Volson  links closer to Khalid Kareem and Tyler Shelvin. Once i adjusted my perspective, the whole group started to shine a little nicer.

The other vibe that kept weighing down my general optimism was  the seemingly unusual amount of narrow misses. Sometimes it was a player i loved  not quite slipping far enough. Sometimes it was an interesting match of need and value and i was just curious to see what would happen once Cincy was on the clock and one player or another was still on the board. But now, we don’t know. We might never know, and all we can do is wonder, what might have been. Here are my thoughts on each round.  Who they did get, who they didn’t get, and what it all means. 

Oh What Might Have Been Rd 1: 

i loved watching Jermaine Johnson (DE Florida State). I think he’s the second best pass rusher in the class.  When he fell into the 20’s i started thinking, “man pass rush isn’t on their top two or three needs list, but maybe they should think about trading up to get him. The value is just too good.”  In the end, he made it all the way to pick 26 before the Jets moved up from 35 to stop the slide and my fantasy ended. I kept expecting some news to come out as to why Johnson fell, but as of now it sounds like the NFL just doesn’t like him as much as I do.

Just prior to the Johnson pick, the Ravens took Tyler Linderbaum (center, Iowa) at 25. Knocked by some for his short arms, Linderbaum was beloved by more analysts as a tough, rock solid center prospect. If the Bengals snagged Linderbaum and kicked Karas over to guard (where some ranked Karras as a top 10 player at the position last year) maybe we wouldn’t have  bene sitting there in September sweating thinking about banking on a day thee rookie to start at LG or waiting for Jackson Carman to wake up.  At the least i wanted to see if they would do it. 

DT Devonte Wyatt (Georgia) coming off the board at pick 28 was more of a “phew” moment. I don’t think the guy flashed enough last year to justify a first round pick. He was just kind of there. I would  have been disappointed with him as the pick.

The Patriots took small school guard Cole Strange at 29. Strangely, this might turn into the most painful what might have been pick of this bunch if he does what small school guards picked by Bill Bellichick normally do. 

But for now we’ll just assume it’s someone the Bengals never would have taken at 31 and move on to the Chiefs taking George Karlaftis at 30.  I think he was going to be their pick and if the predictably overly optimistic training camp news can be believed they might have narrowly missed out on a chance to supercharge their pass rush for the next five years or so. Play a sad song for just a moment and think of the sweet disaster Laboratory Lou is cooking up in some alternate reality somewhere.

… …

Okay! Karlaftis could have crushed it but now it’s time to talk up our main man Dax a little bit. 

Round 1 Pick 31: Dax Hill S Michigan

There was some buzz questioning the value of a safety and even speculation on this pick being a straight up replacement for Jessie Bates or Vonn Bell with both players entering contract years. Yes, he provides some insurance for departures next year, but that’s more of a bonus. Bates is around for now and the real vision is short term: a supercharged version of what they wanted Ricardo Allen to be last year. Instead of a shiny hammer, Labby Lou gets a sub 4.4 gazelle that can hit and cover. They’ll move him around the formation and disguise what they’re doing. Michigan had him lining up 1:1 with receivers a little too much. I don’t think he’s going to turn into a primary slot defender, but he does offer some relief against some of Mike Hilton’s shortcomings. Hilton isn’t really the guy you want shadowing Odell Beckham on crossing routes in the Super Bowl. But can he line up against him and then hand him off to Hill as he streaks across the field?That makes a little more sense.

… That of course was what i said heading into the year. The execution of their new chess piece hasn’t gone quite as i envisioned it. Hill hasn’t seen the field much as Anarumo has opted to lean heavily on 2 LB, 4 lineman fronts with Mike Hilton as the lone extra DB.  Hill has only seen a few defensive snaps here and there and special teams duty.  When he finally got in it was emergency fill-in time as a CB in the blowout loss to the Browns. The following week he separated his shoulder. 

Either way, the reality is one or both of the current starting safeties  probably aren’t coming back next year. Based on what Hill flashed in the preseason, there’s a chance the Bengals secondary might not skip a beat.

Oh What Might Have Been Rd 2:

Predictably,  round 2 started with several of the names bandied about as potential pick 31 candidates flying off the board quick (DT Logan Hall, CB Kyler Gordon, CB Roger McCreary) but it’s hard to get too upset about them. The Bengals had their chance to get them and went an alternate route. CB Alontae Taylor gets an honorable mention because i was hoping he’d last until 63, but coming off the board at pick 49 to the Saints, he wasn’t really in range.  The biggest round 2 groaner was pick 55 when the Cardinals snagged top TE prospect Trey McBride. I’m not as wild about McBride as some, but I think he could have been a nice compromise at the position.  He doesn’t have Hurst’s athleticism or Sample’s blocking ability but he is somewhere in the middle with both skill sets. Assuming Hurst won’t stick around long term and Sample just isn’t going to blossom as a weapon it wouldn’t have been a bad idea to get a prospect in this year to get that rookie year out of the way. But McBride is now destined to shrivel up in the desert where TE’s tend to rot. 

Round 2 pick 60: Cam Taylor-Britt CB Nebraska

The Bengals gave up a sixth to move up from 63 to 60  to secure some CB2 depth. McCreary, Gordon, Andrew Booth, and Taylor all would have filled that void on the roster but they were long gone. Looking at the CB names that went in round 3, Taylor Britt was the last guy I figured was capable of contributing as an outside corner in year one with long term starter potential.  Considering the Bengals were willing to stray from their tendency to sit tight and shun giving up resources in trades, i think they agreed with me.

It was Cam Taylor-Britt or bust and the Bengals moved up to grab him. Taylor-Britt doesn’t flash the ability to lock down a side of the field or anything but he’s solid. His closing speed is what really flashed to me. When he sees a target he zeros in and hits hard. Stepping in as CB2 as a rookie will be tough, but now that he’s  off IR, he should have a chance to get his feet wet and come out of the gates strong next year.

Oh What Might Have Been Rd 3:

Behemoth RT Abraham Lucas was the biggest heart breaker for me, but he went early in round 3 long before Cincy could even consider him to upgrade their OT3 slot (still their top need in my mind, but the Bengals don’t seem to think so).

NT Travis Jones (UConn) has versatility to backup Reader and maybe play next to him too. 

LB Nakobe Dean (Georgia) has the instincts and athleticism to rush, rally to the ball, and cover. Next to Logan Wilson the Bengals defense would have leveled up in terms of versatility and unpredictably.

 

I could picture UCLA receiving TE Greg Dulcich as a microwave weapon trucking down the field upping the ante on the physicality of the Bengals passing attack. 

DE/DT DeMarvin Leal (Texas A&M) had plenty of critics in the draft community, but I thought he was way more effective than most are giving credit and a more juiced up version of the guy they ended up taking. I was dying to know if the Bengals liked him, but the Steelers (of all teams!!!) snatched him up first.

Then there were some guards that went that i thought might be on their radar and I really wanted to see if they might invest there a little earlier than they did. Dylan Parham went to Vegas and the UCLA OT projected to kick inside, Sean Rhyan (not my favorite, but often linked to Bengals interest), both would have been interesting options if they had lasted. 

Round 3 pick 95: Zach Carter, DT Florida

Instead we get Carter. I don’t hate the pick. It just seems like more of a project than i was hoping for. Carter fights to the ball and occasionally flashes inside pass rush ability. I just worry he’ll struggle with bigger stronger bodies and right now they don’t have much depth in the pipeline to play 3tech DT behind B.J. Hill.

Oh What Might Have Been Rd 4:

If Abe Lucas is a behemoth, Daniel Faalele is a planet. We’ll be seeing all 6’8” 380 lbs. of him somewhere on the Ravens line at some point. 

There weren’t  a ton of other names that i was heartbroken about. DT Perrion Winfrey was popular amongst analysts but he wasn’t in the running after the Carter pick. 

The TE’s as a group more or less qualify. They kept trickling off the board with five more taken before Cincy’s next pick making it less and less likely the Bengals would find an option they liked (although speaking of likely, Ravens preaseason darling TE IsaiahLikely did get taken three picks after the Bengals’ 4th rounder.)

Longing for a punter upgrade, i was also disappointed to see the Ravens snatch up the first punter Jordan Stout.

Round 4 pick 136: Cordell Volson G North Dakota State

Finally, an offensive line pick! Part of me wanted the Bengals to take 7 offensive line picks with this draft. After injuries wiped out training camp for Alex Cappa, L’ael Collins, and D’ante Smith,  Isaiah Prince went to IR, and Jackson Carman basically flamed out, my fears about the lack of offensive line depth feel pretty justified. 

 

I’m not sure that Volson’s ceiling is high, but i liked the consistency and versatility he showed with solid college game clips at three of the five OL positions. I’m not wild that he has to start right away but he’s a decent bet to develop into a serviceable starter which is more than you can ask for with most bottom of the fourth round picks.

Oh What Might Have Been Rd 5:

These names might be better served to group in with the round 4 batch as they came off the board with the four subsequent picks to when the Bengals took Volson.

Bailey Zappe (Western Kentucky) could make for a perfect backup quarterback. I wouldn’t advocate specifically for the Bengals to take him unless he lasted to the seventh round or joined as a UDFA, but still. 

Calvin Austin (Memphis) would have been nice developmental WR depth.

Isaiah Likely (Coastal Carolina ) i mentioned already. He has had some pretty intriguing receiver moments as a rookie.

And last but not least. The one that hurt the most.  My favorite OL prospect who excelled at both center and left tackle at Wake Forest, Zach Tom. If the Bengals had taken him, i might have done a backflip.

Later in the round the one guy that pops out to me is the giant CB from UTSA, Tariq Woolen. If he develops the 6’4” former WR could be a monster.

Round 5 pick 166: Tycen Anderson S Toledo

The Bengals are stockpiling fast guys that can tackle.  We’ll see if they can squeeze starting caliber snaps out of him within the next couple years but at the least Darrin Simmons has a nice special teams ball of clay to work with.

Oh What Might Have Been Rd 6, 7: 

Nothing in this range made me too sad. 

Michigan’s Andrew Steuber or Penn St.’s Rasheed Walker would have made for decent flyers to add OL depth.  

Kansas St. QB Skylar Thompson is another one of my favorite deep sleeper quarterbacks that might have been able to hang around the practice squad and eventually unseat Brandon Allen as the QB2.

Round 7 pick 252: Jeffrey Gunter DE Coastal Carolina

WOoo, i don’t know if he’ll develop into a starter, but he sure does look the part.  He’s long and lean with room to stack on muscle.  He flashed enough in college games that there’s at least some hope of having found a diamond in the rough.  It seems like a pretty solid find for the 11th to last pick in the draft.   

Alright that’s it. Sorry it took so long. Time to start working on the 2023 class!

2022 Week 1 and Beyond

 Well, week one went off the rails pretty quick. Still, the end result wasn’t too far from what i predicted:

- Sloppy slow start

-The defense held

-In the end Joe Burrow figured out how to do enough to win.. Only, Clark Harris’s old man muscles gave out and the Bengals kicking game couldn’t convert 

(funny question from my wife who doesn’t watch or care anything about football after i mentioned the Bengals lost the game partly because they screwed up two kicks after the long snapper got hurt: “Why didn’t the guy who snaps the ball on every other play just do it?” .. .. good question. Maybe the center would be a better emergency long snapper than the third string tight end?  Punt coverage, okay it makes sense that you don’t want a lineman out there for that but the snaps for kicks seem similar enough to shotgun snaps. Just sayin.) 

No time to weep too much. Week 2 is right around the corner. The Bengals head to Dallas this weekend for a showdown with.. Cooper Rush?  .. Strangely, the Dak Prescott injury comes as both a relief and a disappointment. Surely it helps the Bengals chances of coming home with a road win, but what would we learn from that? It kind of robs us of the chance to get this week 1 bad taste out of our mouths for at least another week or two. Plus, there’s almost more to lose than to win going into it.  I’m sure the team doesn’t quite see it that way. A win is a win and they just have to go in there and take care of business, but it does seem to put more pressure on them to dominate. They’re heading into a hostile environment against an elite pass rusher and a ball hawking DB with a knack for big plays.. sounds awfully familiar minus the road game aspect of it. Hopefully an early miscue doesn’t waken ghosts from the Steelers game.  

I still have faith though. Joe Ain’t afraid of no ghosts! 

 If they are what we think they are, week 1 is in the past. They got hit in the mouth.  Now they spit blood and come back on a mission.  Bengals 27 Cowboys 

2022 NFL Season Predictions

 The 2022 season is finally here!  The first Sunday always feels like Christmas morning.  After all of the narratives and speculation floated the past seven months, we finally get to unwrap the gifts and see what's inside... Only there will be a lot more coal in these packages than kids normally find in December.  Some fan bases will even get treated to a can of snakes. But instead of a spring popping out it feels more like real snake jumping out to terrorize your Sunday afternoon.  There's nothing worse than an ugly week 1 injury or your team laying an egg to ruin the Christmas spirit.  But!.. I hate to jinx it, but i think we'll be alright Bengals fans.  The Steelers defense has been hitting for weeks and playing starters in the preseason.  I suspect they'll have the new O-line on their heels for a few quarters, but Laboratory Lou and the boys are strong enough to hold serve until Joe Burrow can figure out how to score enough points to win.  Bengals win 20-16.   Here's how i see the regular season playing out:  

AFC North:

Cincinnati  11-6
Baltimore  11-6
Pittsburgh  10-7
Cleveland  5-11

Your Cincinnati Bengals remain the Kings of the North!  It has been an interesting offseason.  It feels like they've somehow checked all of the boxes and also not quite done enough.  It might be my paranoia talking, but i would've liked to see them go even harder at offensive line.  I'm terrified we're going to be 2 weeks in before we see the same stinking offensive line that we had to watch in the Super Bowl.  But, fingers crossed, maybe Collins and Cappa got their injuries out of the way in training camp and we'll actually get to see the free agent pickups play together most of the year.  They have to establish some continuity quickly, but the improvement should be night and day.  Everything we know about Burrow SCREAMS that he is on an upward trajectory and he will just keep getting better and better.  Give him more time and the results will be surgical.  

Plenty of analysts have been high on the Bengals, but the regression nerds keep chirping about deep ball efficiency and no one seems willing to commit to them as a top tier contender.  It's annoying, but probably beneficial.  There's a realistic chance Burrow and the boys are about to drop a Peyton Manning-Kurt Warner-sized bomb on the league, and i'm not sure anyone really sees it coming. 

For the record:
- Division games 3-3 : i have the Bengals splitting with all three division opponents. 

- Vs. NFC South 3-1 : They take down Tampa Tom, snag Burrow's first win against Baker Mayfield, and swallow up Atlanta.  I vividly remember Cincy coming out flat in the magical '88 season and losing to the Saints.  Unfortunately, history repeats itself.  

-  Vs. AFC East 3-1 : They take down the Patriots, avenge last year's calamity at N.Y. , and terrorize Tua for three wins.  After the ball drops on New Year's the Bengals drop a nail biter to the Bills on Jan. 2.   

- First Place Showdowns 1-1: The Bengals repeat their playoff performance (minus the nine sacks) to knock off the Titans to get one win, but the Chiefs get their revenge and steal Mahommes-Burrow III.     
- Bonus NFC game 1-0 : The bonus game this year has the Bengals taking on the Cowboys.  I can't remember the Bengals ever playing well against Dallas, but they start the season hot and light up the Boys in week 2. 

The Ravens Rebound.  The Steelers scratch and claw to 10 feisty wins.  The Browns blunder with Brisset and Watson has to shake the rust off.  

Landscape of the Rest of the Leauge:

AFC South
Indianapolis  10-7
Jacksonville  9-8
Tennessee 8-9
Houston 7-10

Matt Ryan to Indy works.  The Jaguars start to have some bite.  Tennessee can't catch a break.  Houston 

is frisky.  

AFC East
Buffalo  11-6
Miami  10-7
New England 8-9
New York Jets  4-13

Buffalo has their moment.  Miami tortures defenses with their speed.  New England doesn't win or lose more than 1 in a row all year.  The Jets are back to the drawing board.  

AFC West
Las Vegas  12-5
L.A. Chargers  11-6
Kansas City  10-7
Denver  6-11

The Raiders weapons stay healthy and Adams, Waller, and Renfro are too much for the league.  The Chargers are electric.  K.C. is a little short on fire power.  Russell Wilson fizzles in the Rockies.  

NFC North
Minnesota  12-5
Green Bay  11-6
Detroit  8-9
Chicago  5-12

NFC MVP Kirk Cousins?  Packers grind out 11 wins, but don't make it look easy.  Dan Campbell rides the Hard Knocks wave from bad to mediocre.  The Bears are stripping it down to the studs. 

NFC South
Tampa Bay  11-6
New Orleans  9-8
Carolina  7-10
Atlanta  5-12

Tampa is banged up but still rolls through the NFC.  The Saints are good, but the Dennis Allen-Jameis Winston coaching-QB tandem can't quite cut it.  Mayfield has some ups, but more downs.   Atlanta is another team playing the long game. 

NFC East
Philadelphia  9-8
Dalls  8-9
N.Y. Giants  8-9
Washington  4-13

Hurts STILL isn't the guy.  Dallas gets beat in the trenches. The Giants surprise themselves.  Wentz throws more picks than TD's and finds his way the bench before Thanksgiving.  

NFC West
L.A. Rams  10-7
San Francisco 10-7
Arizona  9-8
Seattle  6-11

The champs lost their edge but still win the West.  Lance struggles but the 49ers defense does it on their own.  The Cardinals start strong but fade late.. Again.  Seattle stumbles.  

PLAYOFFS??!!:

The Chiefs lose out on the tiebreaker and miss the playoffs and we have to listen to people complain about AFC/NFC playoff seeding for 6 months.  

1. Las Vegas

2. Buffalo

3. Cincinnati

4. Indianapolis

5. Baltimore

6. L.A. Chargers

7. Miami

Buffalo blasts Miami.  Burrow outduels Herbert.  Lamar gets off the playoff schneid to send Indy packing.  Cincy ends the Josh Allen's magical season and the Raiders hold serve against the Ravens.  

I'd love to predict a return trip to the Super Bowl for our Bengals, but i think it's just too hard to pull off.  Some of the breaks they caught last year fall the other direction and Las Vegas takes the AFC crown and heads to Arizona. 

1. Minnesota

2. Tampa Bay

3. L.A. Rams

4. Philadelphia

5. Green Bay

6. San Francisco

7. Arizona

The Cardinals show up to this year and make up for last year's playoff disaster with a stunning upset.  The 49ers keep winning with defense despite shaky quarterback play.  The Packers make short work of the Eagles.  Jimmy GLance can't fool the packers D.  Arizona's magic runs out in Minnesota.  

An NFC North showdown in the conference finals!  Captain Kirk finds a way.  Rodgers falls short again.

SUPER BOWL:  Carr vs. Cousins isn't exactly what the league had in mind heading into the season.  Cousins has proved doubters wrong all year long, but turns into a pumpkin when it matters most.  Raiders win 35-23.

 Enjoy week 1 everybody! 

2022 NFL Draft: Day 2 Names to Watch

The Bengals land my guy Daxton Hill in round 1 to add some spice and versatility to the secondary.  There's a lot to talk about, but first let's  highlight the names in play for day 2.  

Players in the mix at positions the Bengals likely won't take in day 2:  

Malik Willis, QB, Liberty
Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati
Isaiah Spiller, RB, Texas A&M
Kenneth Walker III, RB, Michigan State
Breece Hall, RB, Iowa State

Jaquan Brisker, S, Penn State
Jalen Pitre, S, Baylor

Options at 63 By Position:

(In no particular order)

CB

Andrew Booth Jr., CB, Clemson

    -Graded out a day 1 guy. Maybe sports hernia injury     preventing athletic testing drops him down.

Roger McCreary, CB, Auburn

    -Solid, reliable
Kyler Gordon, CB, Washington

    -Another fringe first rounder.  Questionable long speed, but locks down on short range routs. 
Tariq Woolen, CB, UTSA

    -Tall converted WR that hits hard.
Alontae Taylor, CB, Tennessee

    -Another solid guy with great instincts.

DE

David Ojabo, DE, Michigan

    -Achilles injury drops him into day 2.  

Boye Mafe, DE, Minnesota

    -Wins with brute force and power. Stout lower body.

Cameron Thomas, DE, San Diego State

    -Got reps inside and outside, but needs to bulk up. Good at penetrating gaps and making plays.

Arnold Ebiketie, DE, Penn State

    -Lean but effective

Logan Hall, DE/DT, Houston
    -Big physical DE that can kick inside

IDL

DeMarvin Leal, DE/DT, Texas A&M

    -One of my favorites.  Why take Travon Walker #1 overall when you can take Leal on day 2.                    Another bigger end with inside/outside versatility.

Perrion Winfrey, DE/DT, Oklahoma
    -Good penetrator.  As long as he's paired with a good DT he's got potential.

Travis Jones, NT/DT, UConn
    -NT that imitates a 3 tech sometimes.

G

Sean Rhyan, G/OT, UCLA

    -LT in college with tree trunk legs.  Not my favorite, but could be solid switching to IOL. I'd hold off      on him until end of RD 3 at the earliest.  

Dylan Parham, G, Memphis

Jamaree Salyer, G/OT, Georgia

    -Another college LT with a G body.  Held up pretty well against SEC competition.  I'm more on               board with him as a prospect than Rhyan.

LB

Nakobe Dean, LB, Georgia
    -Best player on Georgia's D is the one that drops.  

OT

Daniel Faalele, OT, Minnesota

    -Mountain.  Can buy QB time just by standing in the way and making rushers go around him.

Bernhard Raimann, OT, Central Michigan

    -I came around on Raimann.  Just an all around solid blocker.

Abraham Lucas, OT, Washington State

    -Another giant RT candidate to upgrade the Prince roster spot.  

Zach Tom, OT, Wake Forest

    -Might be my favorite prospect in the draft. I can't figure out why no one talks about him. He was a standout C and moved to LT.  He looked great against ACC competition as one of the better pass protectors I watched.  He got push run blocking despite being undersized.  He needs to bulk up and add strength or else I'd really be pounding the table for him. He probably ends up going on day 3, but I'm convinced he's worth the 63rd pick.  I kept thinking of Rashawn Slater while watching him.. Then i looked up their dimensions and their heights, weights, and arm lengths were almost identical.  He  sometimes gave up ground to the bull rush but he was usually able to hold off  the pressure well enough.   

TE

Trey McBride, TE, Colorado State

Greg Dulcich, TE, UCLA
Jeremy Ruckert, TE, Ohio State

WR

David Bell, WR, Purdue
Skyy Moore, WR, Western Michigan
John Metchie III, WR, Alabama
Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota State
George Pickens, WR, Georgia

By my count that's 36 prospects on my watch list.  Another few dozen not on my list will get taken sprinkled in amongst all of these guys meaning rounds 2 and 3 should be pretty fruitful for the Bengals as they continue to try to sure up the back half of their roster.  

2022 NFL Mock Draft

 

1. Jacksonville

This is the most uncertainty with the number pick that I can remember in a while.  The Jaguars would love to move down and acquire more assets, but there just isn’t incentive for anyone to come up and get this pick.  Aidan Hutchinson is the best bet of the top tier players in this class.  He is capable of ascending into that rare group of pass rushers that can generate their own opportunities. He isn’t quite as talented as someone like Myles Garrett or T.J. Watt, but the next tier down is in play kind of on the Joey Bosa level. 

The Pick: Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan

 

2. Detroit

The Lions just need talent.  A trade down isn’t likely in the cards. O-Line is relatively set and they’re not ready to tie themselves to a QB yet so they go defense.  The buzz is Travon Walker might go number 1 in which case Detroit would sprint to the podium to keep Hutchinson in the state of Michigan.  In this scenario Jacksonville comes to their senses. Detroit is left looking for other kneecap biters and they turn to Walker.  People are projecting great things for this guy.  For the life of me, I'm not sure what they're looking at. Watching his footage I kept waiting and waiting for him to do something interesting. It took me three games to finally find him getting some edge pressure.  I’m lucky I didn’t fall asleep and miss it.  He holds his ground.. A LOT.  He can win around the edge but it seems to only come when the opposing line is overmatched. I get the idea that some of it may be scheme driven, but he still had plenty of rush opportunities where he just didn’t beat his man.  I see him as a 3-4 DE and i'm not sure why you'd take that position early in round 1.  The value just doesn't add up.   

The Pick: Travon Walker, DE, Georgia

 

3. Houston

It’s a long road ahead for the Texans and they’re just looking to stockpile talent.  With his tall frame and silky smooth movement skills, Ahmad Gardner should translate into a defender that can match up with just about anyone. 

The Pick: Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati

 

4. New York Jets

The sun rises, the sky is blue, and the Jets need edge talent.  Jermaine Johnson will get the chance to break the curse.  He’s a beast.  I’ve never seen a guy strike an offensive tackle and spin him like a top.  The RT from Miami, he believes.  

The Pick: Jermaine Johnson, EDGE, Florida State

 

5. New York Giants TRADE to New Orleans

This seems a little telegraphed, but the Saints invested future capital to acquire ammunition this year which probably means they have their eye on somebody.  Other QB needy teams sit waiting at 6, 8, and 9 and the Giants capitalize. 

The Pick: Malik Willis, QB, Liberty

 

6. Carolina

Carolina’s owner is a Pitt booster and the buzz is they might just grab Kenny Pickett here.  I think they play chicken and see if they can land him on day 2.  Instead they grab someone to block for him.  I’m not wild about Neal this high, but I’ve come around on ranking him as the top OT in this class.  His big hulking frame is just too much for rushers to deal with.  I’d still say he’d probably be the third or fourth best OT in a lot of classes, but in this draft with Carolina’s need it makes sense to take him here.  There was a story that Neal might fall due to his medicals.  It’s not clear what the issue is or if that report is real, but keep an eye on that.    

The Pick: Evan Neal, OT, Alabama

 

7. New York Giants (from Chicago)

The Giants will give Daniel Jones one more chance.  Kayvon Thibodeaux was once considered a candidate to go number 1 before falling victim to the obligatory, “Does he love football enough?” storyline that seems to bubble up every year.  He’s not as consistent as Hutchinson, but he still has the ability to force the issue attacking the quarterback. The Giants make out like bandits here. 

The Pick: Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregon

 

8. Atlanta

The Falcons skill position talent well is about as dry as it gets.  Pair Jameson Williams with Kyle Pitts and all of a sudden they have something cooking.  Williams’ tore his ACL in January, but that shouldn’t bother the Falcons too much and might actually be ideal for them as they try to position themselves for QB talent next year. 

The Pick: Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama

 

9. Seattle

The Seahawks currently have Stone Forsythe and Jake Curhan at the top of the OT depth chart.  Charles Cross isn’t quite as big as Neal, but he gets similar results.  Solid.  Steady. 

The Pick: Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State

 

10. New York Jets

It might be a little bittersweet for the Jets to take another safety high in the first round.  Kyle Hamilton has the kind of versatility that might make it worth it.  6’4” 220 lbs. safeties with range for days don’t grow on trees.

The Pick: Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame

 

11. Washington

Washington has invested a lot of resources in the defense the past few years.  It’s time for some maintenance on the offensive line.  Ikem Ekwonu isn’t my favorite prospect, but some have him going as high as number 1 overall.  He looks like an elite O-lineman.  He moves like an elite O-lineman.  But he has enough lapses pass blocking that I’m a little worried how he’s going to translate.  He needs to be a little more patient.  He seems to strike too early and lose his power and balance.

The Pick: Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State

 

12. Minnesota

Ironically, Mike Zimmer is gone and the Vikings finally snag a high end CB prospect.  Zimmer was notorious for squeezing talent out of DB’s.  Imagine what he would have done with this guy.  Stingley is ultra talented, but he sort of Looks bored in his 2021 footage.  Maybe he had too much success too early as a true freshman on that 2019 team?  I'm interested to see if he refocuses and reinvigorates himself with the new challenge of playing at the next level. 

The Pick: Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU

 

13. Houston (from Cleveland)

Houston already landed the top CB.  Now they grab Mike Evans Jr.  Drake London is big and strong, but moves like someone 5” shorter.

The Pick: Drake London, WR, USC

 

14. Baltimore

Big nose tackle that moves like someone 40 lbs. lighter.  Defies the laws of physics.  Of course this guy falls to Baltimore.  What a nightmare.

The Pick: Jordan Davis, IDL, Georgia

 

15. Philadelphia

The Eagles have a lot of assets to upgrade their talent level and they kick it off here with a big fast playmaker for the middle of their defense.  Devin Lloyd could be a culture changer. 

The Pick: Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah

 

16. New Orleans (from Indianapolis through Philadelphia) TRADE to New York Giants

The Giants go a similar rout.  Nakobe Dean isn’t as big as Lloyd, but he’s just as explosive.  He can cover.  He can rush.  He can come downhill and knife to the ball carrier.  Dean might be the prototypical modern linebacker.

The Pick: Nakobe Dean, LB, Georgia

 

17. Los Angeles Chargers

Keenan Allen has some prime left, but with a franchise quarterback in the fold the Chargers need to reload on skill position talent.  Olave’s hands are a little inconsistent, but his blend of speed and route running could push him a little higher on the board even. 

The Pick: Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State

 

18. Philadelphia (from New Orleans)

The Eagles take another crack at WR and the Ohio State WR’s go back to back.  Wilson isn’t quite as polished as Olave, but he might have more upside.  I’m not sure if he turns into a WR1, but lining him up opposite DeVonta Smith might set him up perfectly to maximize his potential. 

The Pick: Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State

 

19. New Orleans (from Philadelphia) TRADE to New York Giants

The Giants continue to check off needs adding a third talented defender for their new head coach.   Booth Jr. was a little too talented to evaluate.  I didn’t see him get challenged much so it’s tricky to figure out how he projects, but he certainly flashed enough to take him here.

The Pick: Andrew Booth Jr., CB, Clemson

 

20. Pittsburgh

Bearcat/Bengals fans worst nightmare.  Mike Tomlin has been circling Desmond Ridder for months.   I like Ridder as a leader, but I’m curious if he can reign himself in 10% to steady out his play a little and cut down on mistakes. 

The Pick: Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati

 

21. New England 

The Patriots let their star corner walk and attempt to bring in the next one. 

The Pick: Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington

 

22. Green Bay (from Las Vegas)

The Packers are retooling their pass rush.  They have squeezed more production out of Rashan Gary than I could have imagined.  Now they add another big DE for their arsenal. 

The Pick: George Karlaftis, DE, Purdue

 

23. Arizona

The Cardinals have been weak up the middle for a few seasons.  They’ve tried to patch it through free agency, but it hasn’t really worked.  Zion Johnson is going to dominate, but he should stabilize things a bit.

The Pick: Zion Johnson, G, Boston College

 

24. Dallas

The Cowboys once vaunted offensive line is in desperate need of retooling.  Trevor Penning is tough with mean streak regularly on display.  He fights his man to the ground and then attacks them again on his hands and knees.  In the games I watched, he held up well against Iowa St.  North Dakota State roughed him up a bit.  Sothern Illinois too.   It’s hard to take him early if he's not going to dominate that level of competition.  Others have him more highly rated than I do. 

The Pick: Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa

 

25. Buffalo

The Bills signed Mitch Morse to play center, but they can’t resist the top C in the class.  Linderbaum didn’t do athletic testing but he flashes plenty of athleticism on tape.  Short arms and size hold him back from going a little higher, but it doesn’t seem to hinder him watching him play.   

The Pick: Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa

 

26. Tennessee

The run on O-line continues.  Kenyon Green is another guy I didn’t like as much as consensus.  He’s like the IOL version of Ekwonu.  Looks like a dominate NFL linemen, but inconsistent pass blocking gives me pause.

The Pick: Kenyon Green, G, Texas A&M

 

27. Tampa Bay

The Buccaneers retool from free agency losses.  This safety class is flush with athletic strong safeties that can cover.  It will be interesting to see how they come off the board.  Is Cine propped up a little bit playing behind that Georgia defensive front?  I think life was easy for him, he’s talented enough to adapt and excel.

The Pick: Lewis Cine, S, Georgia

 

28. Green Bay

Aaron Rodgers finally gets his Rd 1 receiver!   

The Pick: Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas

29. Kansas City (from San Francisco through Miami)

The Chiefs are also in the process of retooling their WR corps, but instead they opt to beef up their defense.  Elam mirrors well and has impressive long speed.  I saw him take an angle and chase down multiple routes/ball carriers who had a head start on him. He got dinged up against Alabama, but stayed in the game gimpy and didn’t get picked to death.

The Pick: Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida

 

30. Kansas City

More cheap D-talent for the K.C.  Mafe is a little stiff, but he gives RT’s fits with his lower body girth and power.

The Pick: Boye Mafe, DE, Minnesota

 

31. Cincinnati

Alright Bengals fans. We’re in uncharted territory here. Assessing options at 31 is WAY harder than 5.

Let’s start with needs. 

1. Left Guard

It sounds like the Bengals are open to drafting into this slot, but they’re just as happy letting Jackson Carman, Akeem Adeniji, and Trey Hill duke it our for the starters slot. I’m not ready to give up on Carman either, but hopefully they look at bringing back Quinton Spain as a safety net. My preference would be to go all in on the offense. Do both. Draft IOL early, let Carman and Adeniji fight for G2, and bring Spain in as plan C. 

At 31 there aren’t too many avenues to go this rout. Linderbaum is their best bet allowing them to slide Karas into guard. Zion Johnson should work. Most are drooling of Kenyon Green, but as I mentioned above that would be pretty disappointing. Regardless none are options in this mock.

2. OT3 

Most people would say CB or DT here but I’m not having it. That doesn’t necessarily mean you address it at pick 31, they should be actively looking to upgrade the Isaiah Prince roster spot. If Riley Reif is healthy and open to that role, great. Maybe that buys enough time until they figure out what they have with D’ante Smith. Let’s avoid being one or two injuries away from the world where we felt like win or lose each game was a moral victory if Burrow didn’t leave on a cart. If we stay away from that , people are underestimating the ceiling here. I don’t want to hear about pass rush. If you’re up by 20 points, Joe Burrow is your pass rush. Yes the AFC has loaded up. Keep that offensive line solid and it won’t matter. Just watch.

They won’t pick an OT here and even I admit if they add an OT, they should wait a round or two.  

3.  CB2

Corner is probably 1 or 2 on most peoples’ wish list. Apple should be the third corner at worst and they don’t have much behind him.  Elam and Booth should be the targets and I go back and forth on Kyler Gordon but I’d be okay with him if that’s what they decide.

4. DT

There isn’t really any depth behind B.J. Hill . Converting a tweener like Logan Hall has been discussed, but that seems risky this early. Devonte Wyatt has the measurables. He just doesn’t quite have the production upside from what I saw. I’d prefer DeMarvin Leal. Maybe they can sneak him into the second round.

5.S

The starting safeties are good, but who knows where the Jessie Bates contract dispute is going and Vonn Bell is heading into a contract year. The value at this spot figures to be a little stronger than other positions. Vine is gone but Brisker, Pitre are still available. But my man is Daxton Hill. Michigan played him almost in a slot role. He struggles a little 1:1 with high end receivers but dial that load back a little and you have a nasty weapon for 3 safety looks. Walk him around a little. Bring him off the edge. Keep him in the middle and let him chase to the ball. He doesn’t have quite as much physicality as some of the other guys but he still packs a punch and does a better CB impersonation than they do. He’ll replace the retired Ricardo Allen and serve as insurance if they lose Bates or Mike Hilton. Overall he just gives Lou Anarumo another dimension to work with. 

The Pick: Daxton Hill, S, Michigan

32. Detroit (from Los Angeles Rams)

The Lions go back to the Georgia well.  Wyatt blends strength and penetration skills well.  As with Cine, I wonder how much Alabama effect is going on with this defense (the overall quality of the line masks each player's individual quality)? How good are they really?

The Pick: Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia

2022 NFL Draft: QB's Anyone?

It’s almost draft day! I have to get my quarterback takes on record before I try to sneak in a mock draft prior to Thursday. 

This quarterback class has been dragged through the mud so much that maybe it is even becoming underrated?  Quarterback needy teams are beside themselves, but if you're looking for a backup quarterback this class actually seems deeper than normal.  That doesn't sound very exciting, but usually once you get past the starters it's one or two names before you start talking yourself into the Kellen Mond's and the Ian Book's of the world.  Teams trying to draft a starter might be crossing their fingers that one of these guys hits the high high end of their projection and maximizes their potential. That’s dicey. The real sweet spot is for teams that to snag a guy to groom and come off the bench in a tight spot. Backup quarterback is an underrated commodity.  Having someone that can start a few games and hold down the fort can save a season.  Having that guy on a rookie contract is even more valuable.   

Week 1 Starters:

N/A

I can’t rate any of these guys in this category.  Everyone just seems to have at least one flaw that makes me nervous handing them the keys to the car right out of the gate.  It’s just asking for trouble.  

After Week 1 Starters:

Okay you don’t want to push all of the chips into the middle on day 1, but they have some reasonable probability of fulfilling starter potential and teams should look for opportunities to get them on the field in year 1. 

1.   1.    Malik Willis, Liberty, RS Senior

6' 225 lb. ball of muscle with home run speed that can make people miss.  This is the lone franchise QB prospect in this class that warrants a team committing  100% to him as their starter (even if it takes a year or more to transition to him to pro competition).    

While running, his cuts are a little exaggerated at times and might cause him to take some hits as he adjusts to the league's tackling ability.   He doesn't threaten Lamar Jackson for the crown of most electric quarterback when he decides to rush, but he's in the conversation at the Kyler Murray/Jalen Hurts level.  His arm strength jumped off the screen to me more than anyone in this class. He rocks and fires at multiple arm angles and the ball gets there in a hurry. He doesn't have pinpoint accuracy, but he's not hopeless either.  I'd prefer if he were only exposed to spot starting duty in year one, but he'll survive on his athleticism if he needs to. 

2.    2.   Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh, RS Senior

Same category, different reasons.  Pickett is turning 24 this year.  You can’t groom him for too long.   But his ceiling isn’t high enough to commit to him as plan A with no plan B.  At 6’3” his size is adequate.  His accuracy and arm strength are adequate. His processing is adequate.  But where does that get you? At his age can he improve or is it what you see is what you get?

He scrambles in the pocket well, but sometimes leaves too early. He can rush well enough, but he's most dangerous throwing on the run. He has some potential, but I can't picture him as more than a mid-tier starter. Kirk Cousins keeps popping in my head.  He'll do 5 things that look like he has it all figured out and then 2 that make you scratch your head. 

 

Backup Fodder?:

Don’t draft them to start, but maybe down the road you find out have something.

3.    3.   Bailey Zappe, Western Kentucky, RS Senior

And the 2022 Tyler Huntley Memorial Award (for the quarterback I'm way higher on than most people) goes too:  Bailey Zappe.  He's only 6'1", but he navigates the pocket and reads the field well. He threads the needle of having a bold attacking style while avoiding recklessness.    If I had any guts, I'd tout him as a late day 1 or early day 2 prospect..  But i don't think he'll go there so i'm splitting the difference between the late round UDFA consensus and my take that he's going to start in this league at some point.  I think he can be what people want Baker Mayfield to be.  It's hard to grade college players against the wide array competition levels.  I'm always looking for the small school guys to dominate a little more than prospects playing in the bigger conferences.  While I'm not big on college stats,  Zappe did set the single season college record for yards and touchdowns. 

 

4.   4.    Kaleb Eleby, Western Michigan, RS Sophomore

And the runner up for the Tyler Huntley Award goes to: Kaleb Eleby.  Eleby is another shorter prospect at 6'1", but he has a little more rushing ability than Zappe.  He reminds me of Russell Wilson with his patience in the pocket and his ability to navigate to space when he needs to keep the defense honest (even if he doesn’t quite have Wilson’s deep ball talent). He ran a pretty RPO heavy offense in college.  Does a team land him with that in mind as the vision for their offense?

5.   5.    Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati, RS Senior

Unpopular opinion alert.  Sorry Bearcats fans.  I went into my evaluation of Ridder hoping to endorse a Cincinnati quarterback as one of the league's future stars, but when all was said and done I couldn't quite get there.  Ridder has been lauded for his leadership, competitiveness and as being the most pro ready prospect in this class.  True, true, and tr..well, not quite on that third bullet point.  He does a lot of things well and has the intangibles you want in a starting quarterback.  He's bold.  But unlike Zappe, he pushes the envelope juuust a little more and crosses that wreckless line a too often for my liking.  He navigates the pocket well, then he'll hold onto the ball for that extra second and take a blind side strip sack.  He reads the field well and then forces a couple throws he shouldn't.  He’s accurate and then he'll whiff on a throw, even on something as simple as a little swing pass in the flat.  

Maybe he'll develop, but a lot of it looks to me like it's hardwired into his personality and he'll end up making too many costly mistakes to be a long term starter.  

Backup Fodder:

It’s not inconceivable these guys end up leading a franchise, but the probability is lower.

6.  6.     Skylar Thompson, Kansas State, RS Senior

Solid.  Makes good reads and good throws, but has a little less starting potential than the guys ahead of him. I was pretty confident watching him that he was going to make a good decision with the football.  That should have value on someone's roster. 

7.       Sam Howell, North Carolina, Junior

I started calling Howell the COVID quarterback… he needs six feet of separation to pull the trigger on a throw.  He did look better in 2020 when he had more draftable talent around him, but I think it was just masking his issues. 

8.       Matt Corral, Ole Miss, RS Junior

I think Corral actually grades out highest at the position’s most important trait: processing. Am I underrating him like I underrated Mac Jones?  Corral just doesn't have quite enough downfield arm talent and accuracy to capitalize on his ability to read the field.  He puts himself in harms way a lot and doesn't really have the frame to take the punishment.  But as a backup? Sign me up.

Practice Squad All-Stars:

9.       9. Jack Coan, Notre Dame, RS Senior

Looks like a blast from the past: Bigger bodied lumbering pocket passer (Although, his listed height/weight seem smaller than he looks).  I don't see any upside here beyond being a solid QB2, but you could certainly do worse trying to bring in a camp arm.  I think he'll end up on a practice squad. 

 

10.  10.  Carson Strong, Nevada RS Junior

I heard some buzz on Strong, but I wasn't enamored with him.  He seemed a little stiff and didn't excel enough anywhere else to get me excited about drafting him.  I'd pass.