Okay, it sounds like this lockout garbage might actually end soon so I’d better rouse myself from this sluggish labor dispute malaise and finish up my draft reaction article before the title is out of date. Don’t take this as if you are off the hook NFL. I’m still pissed at you for your five-month semi-public cat fight over the best way to divvy up the money you’ve swindled out of my pocket as if you were entitled to it all along. Anyway, here’s some draft talk…
Who Dey?
Having received widespread praise for their draft class, one question begs of the Bengals’ personnel department: who are these guys? Often maligned for ignoring character risks and having an inadequate scouting department, Mike Brown’s boys got two thumbs up for their efforts on draft day this year. I liked Cincy’s picks. I’m not doing cartwheels, but I think the war room deserves a nice golf clap. Most are viewing this as one of the top classes because they were able to take an awful situation (franchise QB checked out, best offensive player flaked out) and reload in one fell swoop. Yet, they’ve adopted a draft style that is so passive it’s hard to look at it and say, “Wow they really out-drafted everyone”. They dabbled in trades early in Marvin Lewis’ tenure, but lately this is their thing: sit back and wait. When they see something they like (like the certain red-headed quarterback they covet falling right into their laps), they think about making a move but ultimately they stand pat. They minimize risk by not investing multiple picks to trade up for one player and avoid the gamble of moving down to add more players of lesser value. Instead, they stay put, try to make solid contact, and only swing for the fences when someone else makes a mistake. Great drafts are made by picking prospects lower than they should have been drafted. Reaching is bad. Just-right talent to draft slot picks are okay. Acquiring higher-level prospects than the price you paid is where you make your money. This Bengals class gets a nod from me rather than a fist pump because I think most of their players were just-right picks. With a class that has no real steals but also has no major reaches, their draft grade starts at a “B.” When you look at what they were able to accomplish playing the first and second round picks off each other, the grade gets bumped up to a “B+.” Let’s break down each pick.
1-2 Punch
The first two picks have to be looked at together. I can harp all I want about how their head down, reactionary draft approach holds them back from a truly elite grade, but this is a scenario where it really works.
The A.J. Green pick by itself doesn’t stir the pot for me. I consider it the equivalent of an ugly win. Your team blows somebody out and you get excited. Your team does just enough to eek out a win and you just feel so-so about it. As top-ten WR picks go, Green isn’t in that Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson “there’s no way this guy could mess up” category, but I’d probably rate him towards the top of the next tier somewhere north of Braylon Edwards and Roy Williams territory (let’s hope he turns out better than those two knuckleheads). Green doesn’t boast quite the same deep playmaking hype that characterized Edwards’ draft profile, but he has better hands, mid-range receiving skills, and run-after-catch talent. How’s that for a team switching to a West Coast offense?
Green should fit in nicely. He is a legitimate top-five prospect. So, why couldn’t I get excited about the pick when it happened? I couldn’t really figure it out until about 20 hours later when the Bengals made their second round pick. At four, they still could have picked Patrick Peterson, a player some considered the best in the class. A player that if used correctly could have given the defense something it’s never had. It wouldn’t have been as safe, but could have been special. Instead they made a WR pick that essentially was being made to replace parts they already had in place. On top of that, what good is a top receiver prospect if they don’t have a legit QB?
As it turns out their strategy was to stay true to their board with the fourth pick and wait until the second round to consider QB where the value was more in line with this year’s talent level. It didn’t look good early on as quarterbacks were flying off the board in the top half of the first round. By the twelfth pick, the only top tier QB prospects left were Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick (picture Marvin Lewis sweating bullets). If they missed out on those two, they would have had to wait a round or two for Ryan Mallet or Ricky Stanzi, and it would have been open season on Mike Brown and the Bengals QB situation. Yet, the picks kept ticking by and Dalton was still on the board. I’m sure there were some tense moments when Seattle was on the clock, but the Seahawks decided they had to have Alabama guard James Carpenter. No one traded back into round one, Buffalo passed at the top of round two, and Cincy didn’t waste much time claiming Dalton with the third pick in the second round.
If you believe all of the “we got the guy we wanted all along” rhetoric (which I do), they almost couldn’t have scripted it any better. In today’s ultra-QB-centric league, the tendency is to err on the side of caution when acquiring a future signal caller and fill in the blanks later. Carolina, Tennessee, and Minnesota had cloudy quarterback pictures going into the draft. When push came to shove, all three teams got jittery and reached for targeted players rather than risk missing out on checking their box for quarterback of the future with one of this years top QB’s. By standing by their draft board, the Bengals now have what I thought was so special about Philadelphia’s offense when Kevin Kolb got promoted heading into last year: a young energetic unit brimming with talent poised to blossom at the same time. It could take two to three years, but with Green and Simpson working the sidelines, Shipley and Caldwell manning the slot, and Gresham threatening the seam, they just might have stumbled onto something lethal. If Andre Smith doesn’t bottom out, I feel good about their OT’s. All that’s left is to keep funneling RB’s and interior lineman into the pipeline. In a few years, Baltimore will be realizing Joe Flacco doesn’t have what it takes, Ben Roethlisburger will be shopping for a ranch house because he is no longer capable of going up and down stairs, and the Bengals young O will be ready to show the league what it’s got. Okay, let’s get through season one before we start crowning Dalton the king of the North, but I definitely feel optimistic about the future.
3.
Future offensive leadership secured, Cincy continued methodically checking off their needs from the third round on. Prior to the draft, I started dreaming up scenarios where Von Miller could have fallen to four with the hopes of adding a sideline to sideline strong-side linebacker athletic enough to hold up in coverage, big enough to hold the point of attack, and quick enough to blitz. Dontay Moch is more or less a poor man’s Miller. He has some good film where he shows off his speed and pursuit, but it is against WAC competition. The fantasy of drafting Miller was nice because he would have plugged right in. Moch is going to need some time to catch his football speed up to his raw athleticism (4.4 forty yard dash). I’m excited about the potential, but it makes me nervous. One of the Bengals’ many struggles has been to develop guys like this. Nonetheless, worst-case scenario they have a 250 lb linebacker they can send screaming down the field on special teams for the next few years.
4.
Based on the 2010 season, I had guard as the Bengals’ top offseason need, (Yes, I was still in denial thinking the Carson Palmer divorce wasn’t official and QB was not a need). Heading into day three of the draft, only one of the top five guards was still on the board. I was crossing my fingers for a Clint Boling pick, and for once the Bengals war room did not ignore my mental pleas. I thought this was the one pick where they really got a bargain. Boling has experience at positions all along the line and will fit right in next to Andrew Whitworth.
5.
Needing a body that can stay healthy, infusing some young blood at safety was a must. This pick could almost be lumped together with the Moch pick: unique athletic talent with raw skills that might or might not translate to the NFL but will definitely be an intriguing addition to special teams. When was the last time you saw a 6’4” safety?
6.
Robert Whalen seems like exactly what you want out of sixth round pick. The go-to receiver on a good team, he appears to be a smart blue-collar player (if you can call a Stanford guy blue-collar) that will slot right into the bottom of the depth chart. If they’re really lucky, he turns into a bigger contributor as a possession receiver long-term.
7a.
Cincy used the first of their two seventh round picks to select Korey Lindsey from Southern Illinois. A productive small-school prospect, Lindsey was riding back-to-back All-American seasons to what some (including Gil Brandt) were calling a third round grade. However, two hamstring injuries scuttled his draft stock and the Bengals might have picked up somewhat of a bargain with the 207th pick. He will be a developmental project, but with Adam Jones’ career on ice and Jonathan Joseph heading into free agency he might even be able to challenge for playing time in some fashion as early as this year.
7b.
Going into the draft I was hoping the Bengals would land a small scat back type to provide more of an outside threat on third downs than they get from a player like Brian Leonard. Yes, Bernard Scott sort of fits that bill, but I think despite being a little light, Scott actually has a chance to transition into every down back territory.
Running back is where I think the Bengals war room missed a little bit of an opportunity as day three played out. They had to take Boling at the top of the fourth. I have no problem with that. Unfortunately, seven running backs were taken before they made their next pick including Kendal Hunter (aka EXACTLY what they need) and Johnny White (one pick before they were on the clock in the fifth), a player ESPN’s Todd McShay raved about pre-draft as one of the most underrated players in the draft. With the talent pool whittled down, the Bengals elected to draft a safety and hold out for a bigger bargain before biting on one of the remaining RB’s. Two more guys who would have been solid fits for what they need, Jacquizz Rodgers and Dion Lewis, both came off the board in the fifth. Cincy again passed in the sixth and ultimately picked from what was left in the seventh.
This is where the Bengals style hurts them and stockpiling picks like New England and Philadelphia comes in handy. If there was someone they really felt good about, they could have moved back into the fourth when the value was right instead of helplessly watching while the RB’s went flying off the board one by one. I’m not going to pretend to know all that much about Jay Finley. He’s Baylor’s all-time leading rusher and led the Big-12 in rushing touchdowns last year in conference play. He very well may blossom into a better pro than he’s being projected, but it really feels like they settled for a lesser prospect than they could have taken if they had been more creative.
Wrap-up:
The Bengals crossed off their top four needs with their first four picks and then used the balance of the draft to bring in developmental talent at the right positions to freshen up the back half of the roster. If I had to nit pick, I’d question whether Moch is going to be able to contribute soon enough. This defense needs two major things: 1. A star (outside of Patrick Peterson, they weren’t going to get that in this draft anyway), and 2. A linebacker to stabilize the middle level of a unit that gives up way too many big running plays. Stay tuned for free agency. Even with holes left to plug on defense, the offense that was in shambles pre-draft now has direction, and firey players like Moch, Sands, and Whalen should upgrade special teams. The league these days is about building windows of opportunity. The important takeaway from this draft is that Cincinnati now has a window. It might not open right away, but the roster at least now appears to be in sync to have some sort of coming of age season X years in the future. It’s unfortunate to give up on the old window so soon when it seemed like there should be a few years of opportunity left. Palmer drudged the franchise out of a two-decade slump and displayed nothing but outstanding character while doing it. To see it all come to a screeching halt because a few drunken fans decided to cuss him out in front of his family and throw garbage on his lawn is disappointing. Regardless, the page has turned and the franchise now has a new face. He appears to be a suitable replacement capable of growing up on the job. The character is there. The pedigree is there. The supporting cast is there. The pieces are in place, and now we wait.
