Friday, November 25, 2022

2022 Draft Class Debrief… FINALLY

Sorry everyone. I’m a little delinquent here, but i wanted to get my takes on the draft class on record before.. well, before next year anyway.


We’ve had about half a season to get our first look at the 2022 Bengals draft class in regular season action.  Let’s refresh a little bit on how the draft played out and how the new faces fit into the roster.


My impulse reaction to the Bengals draft class was.. hmm. Maybe i even gave it a shoulder shrug.  After staring at it a while, i came to terms with it..i might have even warmed up to it.


Going into the draft my feeling was okay maybe CB in round 1 if the value is right but let’s hammer home trench depth, grab a TE later and maybe even address special teams (returner, punter) or WR depth. In the end they stayed more well rounded. Splitting between DB’s and lineman, they sprinkled in a little depth at most of the need positions, ignored offense except for one day 3 pick, and  raised some eyebrows by selecting two players designated as safeties.


The biggest wake up call for me was  the reality of drafting in the 31 slot. Each time they picked my reaction wasn’t disappointment but  it was definitely less than a fist pump (okay maybe there was a celebration dance with the Dax Hill pick, but that was at least partly the thrill of hitting their pick in my mock draft in addition to liking the player).  Even factoring  in the general lack of spice in the class, i couldn’t shake the feeling with each pick that the Bengals were one step behind.. One round even. But was it their fault or just the pick 31 effect? Dissecting it, you almost have to bump everything down a tier when comparing what they did to what they have been able to accomplish in the past.  Think of Dax Hill not in the vein of JaMar Chase as much as in the context of Tee Higgins and Jackson Carman. Think of Cam Taylor-Brit  comparatively to Logan Wilson and Joseph Ossai. Zach Carter is more like Akeem Davis-Gaither and Cam Sample. Cordell Volson  links closer to Khalid Kareem and Tyler Shelvin. Once i adjusted my perspective, the whole group started to shine a little nicer.


The other vibe that kept weighing down my general optimism was  the seemingly unusual amount of narrow misses. Sometimes it was a player i loved  not quite slipping far enough. Sometimes it was an interesting match of need and value and i was just curious to see what would happen once Cincy was on the clock and one player or another was still on the board. But now, we don’t know. We might never know, and all we can do is wonder, what might have been. Here are my thoughts on each round.  Who they did get, who they didn’t get, and what it all means. 


Oh What Might Have Been Rd 1: 

i loved watching Jermaine Johnson (DE Florida State). I think he’s the second best pass rusher in the class.  When he fell into the 20’s i started thinking, “man pass rush isn’t on their top two or three needs list, but maybe they should think about trading up to get him. The value is just too good.”  In the end, he made it all the way to pick 26 before the Jets moved up from 35 to stop the slide and my fantasy ended. I kept expecting some news to come out as to why Johnson fell, but as of now it sounds like the NFL just doesn’t like him as much as I do.


Just prior to the Johnson pick, the Ravens took Tyler Linderbaum (center, Iowa) at 25. Knocked by some for his short arms, Linderbaum was beloved by more analysts as a tough, rock solid center prospect. If the Bengals snagged Linderbaum and kicked Karas over to guard (where some ranked Karras as a top 10 player at the position last year) maybe we wouldn’t have  bene sitting there in September sweating thinking about banking on a day thee rookie to start at LG or waiting for Jackson Carman to wake up.  At the least i wanted to see if they would do it. 


DT Devonte Wyatt (Georgia) coming off the board at pick 28 was more of a “phew” moment. I don’t think the guy flashed enough last year to justify a first round pick. He was just kind of there. I would  have been disappointed with him as the pick.


The Patriots took small school guard Cole Strange at 29. Strangely, this might turn into the most painful what might have been pick of this bunch if he does what small school guards picked by Bill Bellichick normally do. 


But for now we’ll just assume it’s someone the Bengals never would have taken at 31 and move on to the Chiefs taking George Karlaftis at 30.  I think he was going to be their pick and if the predictably overly optimistic training camp news can be believed they might have narrowly missed out on a chance to supercharge their pass rush for the next five years or so. Play a sad song for just a moment and think of the sweet disaster Laboratory Lou is cooking up in some alternate reality somewhere.

… …

Okay! Karlaftis could have crushed it but now it’s time to talk up our main man Dax a little bit. 

Round 1 Pick 31: Dax Hill S Michigan

There was some buzz questioning the value of a safety and even speculation on this pick being a straight up replacement for Jessie Bates or Vonn Bell with both players entering contract years. Yes, he provides some insurance for departures next year, but that’s more of a bonus. Bates is around for now and the real vision is short term: a supercharged version of what they wanted Ricardo Allen to be last year. Instead of a shiny hammer, Labby Lou gets a sub 4.4 gazelle that can hit and cover. They’ll move him around the formation and disguise what they’re doing. Michigan had him lining up 1:1 with receivers a little too much. I don’t think he’s going to turn into a primary slot defender, but he does offer some relief against some of Mike Hilton’s shortcomings. Hilton isn’t really the guy you want shadowing Odell Beckham on crossing routes in the Super Bowl. But can he line up against him and then hand him off to Hill as he streaks across the field?That makes a little more sense.


… That of course was what i said heading into the year. The execution of their new chess piece hasn’t gone quite as i envisioned it. Hill hasn’t seen the field much as Anarumo has opted to lean heavily on 2 LB, 4 lineman fronts with Mike Hilton as the lone extra DB.  Hill has only seen a few defensive snaps here and there and special teams duty.  When he finally got in it was emergency fill-in time as a CB in the blowout loss to the Browns. The following week he separated his shoulder. 


Either way, the reality is one or both of the current starting safeties  probably aren’t coming back next year. Based on what Hill flashed in the preseason, there’s a chance the Bengals secondary might not skip a beat.


Oh What Might Have Been Rd 2:

Predictably,  round 2 started with several of the names bandied about as potential pick 31 candidates flying off the board quick (DT Logan Hall, CB Kyler Gordon, CB Roger McCreary) but it’s hard to get too upset about them. The Bengals had their chance to get them and went an alternate route. CB Alontae Taylor gets an honorable mention because i was hoping he’d last until 63, but coming off the board at pick 49 to the Saints, he wasn’t really in range.  The biggest round 2 groaner was pick 55 when the Cardinals snagged top TE prospect Trey McBride. I’m not as wild about McBride as some, but I think he could have been a nice compromise at the position.  He doesn’t have Hurst’s athleticism or Sample’s blocking ability but he is somewhere in the middle with both skill sets. Assuming Hurst won’t stick around long term and Sample just isn’t going to blossom as a weapon it wouldn’t have been a bad idea to get a prospect in this year to get that rookie year out of the way. But McBride is now destined to shrivel up in the desert where TE’s tend to rot. 


Round 2 pick 60: Cam Taylor-Britt CB Nebraska


The Bengals gave up a sixth to move up from 63 to 60  to secure some CB2 depth. McCreary, Gordon, Andrew Booth, and Taylor all would have filled that void on the roster but they were long gone. Looking at the CB names that went in round 3, Taylor Britt was the last guy I figured was capable of contributing as an outside corner in year one with long term starter potential.  Considering the Bengals were willing to stray from their tendency to sit tight and shun giving up resources in trades, i think they agreed with me.


It was Cam Taylor-Britt or bust and the Bengals moved up to grab him. Taylor-Britt doesn’t flash the ability to lock down a side of the field or anything but he’s solid. His closing speed is what really flashed to me. When he sees a target he zeros in and hits hard. Stepping in as CB2 as a rookie will be tough, but now that he’s  off IR, he should have a chance to get his feet wet and come out of the gates strong next year.


Oh What Might Have Been Rd 3:

Behemoth RT Abraham Lucas was the biggest heart breaker for me, but he went early in round 3 long before Cincy could even consider him to upgrade their OT3 slot (still their top need in my mind, but the Bengals don’t seem to think so).


NT Travis Jones (UConn) has versatility to backup Reader and maybe play next to him too. 


LB Nakobe Dean (Georgia) has the instincts and athleticism to rush, rally to the ball, and cover. Next to Logan Wilson the Bengals defense would have leveled up in terms of versatility and unpredictably.

 

I could picture UCLA receiving TE Greg Dulcich as a microwave weapon trucking down the field upping the ante on the physicality of the Bengals passing attack. 


DE/DT DeMarvin Leal (Texas A&M) had plenty of critics in the draft community, but I thought he was way more effective than most are giving credit and a more juiced up version of the guy they ended up taking. I was dying to know if the Bengals liked him, but the Steelers (of all teams!!!) snatched him up first.


Then there were some guards that went that i thought might be on their radar and I really wanted to see if they might invest there a little earlier than they did. Dylan Parham went to Vegas and the UCLA OT projected to kick inside, Sean Rhyan (not my favorite, but often linked to Bengals interest), both would have been interesting options if they had lasted. 


Round 3 pick 95: Zach Carter, DT Florida

Instead we get Carter. I don’t hate the pick. It just seems like more of a project than i was hoping for. Carter fights to the ball and occasionally flashes inside pass rush ability. I just worry he’ll struggle with bigger stronger bodies and right now they don’t have much depth in the pipeline to play 3tech DT behind B.J. Hill.


Oh What Might Have Been Rd 4:

If Abe Lucas is a behemoth, Daniel Faalele is a planet. We’ll be seeing all 6’8” 380 lbs. of him somewhere on the Ravens line at some point. 


There weren’t  a ton of other names that i was heartbroken about. DT Perrion Winfrey was popular amongst analysts but he wasn’t in the running after the Carter pick. 


The TE’s as a group more or less qualify. They kept trickling off the board with five more taken before Cincy’s next pick making it less and less likely the Bengals would find an option they liked (although speaking of likely, Ravens preaseason darling TE IsaiahLikely did get taken three picks after the Bengals’ 4th rounder.)

Longing for a punter upgrade, i was also disappointed to see the Ravens snatch up the first punter Jordan Stout.


Round 4 pick 136: Cordell Volson G North Dakota State

Finally, an offensive line pick! Part of me wanted the Bengals to take 7 offensive line picks with this draft. After injuries wiped out training camp for Alex Cappa, L’ael Collins, and D’ante Smith,  Isaiah Prince went to IR, and Jackson Carman basically flamed out, my fears about the lack of offensive line depth feel pretty justified. 

 

I’m not sure that Volson’s ceiling is high, but i liked the consistency and versatility he showed with solid college game clips at three of the five OL positions. I’m not wild that he has to start right away but he’s a decent bet to develop into a serviceable starter which is more than you can ask for with most bottom of the fourth round picks.


Oh What Might Have Been Rd 5:

These names might be better served to group in with the round 4 batch as they came off the board with the four subsequent picks to when the Bengals took Volson.


Bailey Zappe (Western Kentucky) could make for a perfect backup quarterback. I wouldn’t advocate specifically for the Bengals to take him unless he lasted to the seventh round or joined as a UDFA, but still. 


Calvin Austin (Memphis) would have been nice developmental WR depth.


Isaiah Likely (Coastal Carolina ) i mentioned already. He has had some pretty intriguing receiver moments as a rookie.


And last but not least. The one that hurt the most.  My favorite OL prospect who excelled at both center and left tackle at Wake Forest, Zach Tom. If the Bengals had taken him, i might have done a backflip.


Later in the round the one guy that pops out to me is the giant CB from UTSA, Tariq Woolen. If he develops the 6’4” former WR could be a monster.



Round 5 pick 166: Tycen Anderson S Toledo

The Bengals are stockpiling fast guys that can tackle.  We’ll see if they can squeeze starting caliber snaps out of him within the next couple years but at the least Darrin Simmons has a nice special teams ball of clay to work with.


Oh What Might Have Been Rd 6, 7: 

Nothing in this range made me too sad. 

Michigan’s Andrew Steuber or Penn St.’s Rasheed Walker would have made for decent flyers to add OL depth.  


Kansas St. QB Skylar Thompson is another one of my favorite deep sleeper quarterbacks that might have been able to hang around the practice squad and eventually unseat Brandon Allen as the QB2.


Round 7 pick 252: Jeffrey Gunter DE Coastal Carolina


WOoo, i don’t know if he’ll develop into a starter, but he sure does look the part.  He’s long and lean with room to stack on muscle.  He flashed enough in college games that there’s at least some hope of having found a diamond in the rough.  It seems like a pretty solid find for the 11th to last pick in the draft.   


Alright that’s it. Sorry it took so long. Time to start working on the 2023 class!