2019 Draft Reaction - 1st round

Start of week 3.  What better time for a draft recap?!.. Not ideal, I just wanted to get some takes on record before things move too far along.  Plus, April draft news floating adrift amidst the vast offseason tends to become a characture of itself.  It's interesting to reflect back on everything from the more realistic perspective of the early regular season as all of the anticipated stories have started to play out (or not play out).  Here's what I thought/think/am thinking of thinking about round 1 of the 2019 NFL draft.

 1 Arizona:  Kyler Murray, QB Oklahoma
Even if they weren't trying to implement a college offense this still was the right pick.  Murray has shown enough QB instincts and arm talent to justify considering him a prospective top 10 QB in the league.  Key word there is prospective.  There are no guarantees with prospects, but a player that has a small but realistic chance of achieving high-end QB status has more value than any other player on this draft board.  The elite athleticism is just the cherry on top of the sundae.
 
2 San Francisco: Nick Bosa, DE Ohio State
The injury risk is cause for concern, but I'm not sure how they could have gotten off this pick.

3 N.Y. Jets: Quinnen Williams, DT Alabama

Great college player with great pro potential.  If OT Jawaan Taylor wasn't in the mix for health reasons, I think they made the right pick to take the best player available.

 

4 Oakland: Clelin Ferrell, DE Clemson

The raiders got roasted for this pick.  I don't think it's that big of a reach.  I thought Ferrell was the second best DE with solid pass rush upside, but a fairly high floor.  A lot of people wanted them to take Josh Allen here.  To me, Allen is a high-end prospect as a 3-4 OLB, but something about him just screams to me that he's not a good fit for a 4-3 scheme.

  

5 Tampa Bay: Devin White, LB LSU

I was a little lower on the Devins than most.  White has great athleticism.  I thought the talent level at LSU gave him a great opportunity to flash that ability, but I'm not sure I saw the instincts to make me think he'll dominate enough as a pro to justify this draft slot.  I liked Allen better as a fit for Todd Bowles' defense.

  

6 N.Y. Giants: Daniel Jones, QB Duke The heat for this pick was relentless.  Let's first address the outrage that the Giants used the sixth pick for this selection.  The fact is Gettleman found a quarterback he liked and he took him.  If he could have waited another 10 or 20 picks, that would have been preferable, but QB is certainly the position where you should quibble with value the least.  Disagree with the evaluation if you want, but people get too excited about the fact that it was pick 6.  

As far as the evaluation is concerned, consensus is a little off base there too.  Frankly as much as people were dogging on Jones, I don't what they were watching when they evaluated him. I don't think he'll be a hall of famer or anything, but I think he has a reasonable chance to be good.  He's tough, he's athletic, he showed a good ability to make quick decisions in the pocket, and his arm strength was good enough.

       

7 Jacksonville: Josh Allen, DE Kentucky

Per above, I'm not sure Allen is the best piece for this defense.  Maybe it allows them to become more exotic with there defensive scheme.  Maybe it adds passing down depth.  Maybe it is Yannick Ngakoue insurance as free agency approaches one of their top pass rushers.  All of those things have value, but if that's there intent, it feels a little frivolous at 7 when they have other needs.   They're overthinking it.  The gap between Allen as a prospect and Hockenson as a prospect wasn't great enough to try to fit 3-4 round peg into their square hole 4-3.

8 Detroit: T.J. Hockenson, TE Iowa There was some un-evolved "Really?  Tight end this early?"  buzz with this pick.  It would have been tough for me to pull the trigger on Hockenson in the top 3, but anywhere from pick 4 on I'm fine with it.  A tight end with the potential to develop into a plus blocker and a plus receiver gives an offense a lot of versatility.  The easy comp is Gronkowski, but Hockenson's ceiling isn't quite that high.  Still, he's a fine top ten pick.  

  

9 Buffalo: Ed Oliver, DT Houston

Contrast this pick with the jaguars pick.  Like Jacksonville, Buffalo added a great defensive prospect to their already great defense.  Unlike Jascksonville, Buffalo picked a player that plugs into their scheme easily, and they used free agency to put enough bandaids on offensive needs to allow them the luxary of drafting the best player available.  

10 Pittsburgh: Devin Bush, LB Michigan

Everyone's in love with this pick.  It could turn out great.  To be honest, I was a little relieved both LB's were gone before the Bengals picked.  I didn't like Bush as much as most.  I thought he looked good, but I don't quite see the ceiling that everyone else is projecting.  I thought he showed some limitations due to his size, and despite his speed he looked just okay in coverage.  They definitely got a good player, but for the price they paid to move into this slot and draft an MLB, he needs to be great.  

From a slightly different angle, I liked this pick because I'm pretty sure Cincy would have taken OT at 11 anyway even if Bush were available and hearing everyone whine about how they passed on Devin Bush would have been annoying (although the narrative that Pittsburgh jumped in front of them to steal Bush might be worse).

11 Cincinnati: Jonah Williams, OT Alabama

Again, given the choice of OT's I liked Taylor more, but it seems apparent that red flags knocked him down teams' lists, and Williams is probably the right pick as the safest LT prospect.  My desire for them to take an RT now clearly looks a little short-sighted.  Cordy Glenn isn't the long-term or even medium-term answer at LT.     

12 Green Bay: Rashan Gary, DE Michigan

I don't totally see  what the Packers are after here.  Gary's athletic profile promises punishing versatility in their front seven, but watching clips of his college games it's just not there. I don't think he can deliver.  Why not just draft Brian Burns? 

 

13 Miami: Chistian Wilkins, DT Clemson

Fine. I'm not in love with this pick either.  Wilkins is a great college player.   Will his playmaking skills translate?  Will he hold up against the run?

  

14 Atlanta: Chris Lindstrom, G Boston College

Lindstrom is a player everyone seems to like.  I can't say that I got to watch him too much.  This is an okay range to draft a lower value position if you think he's going to be great.

  

15 Washington: Dwayne Haskins, QB Ohio State

Ugh, no thanks.  I've said my piece about Haskins.  I don't see a high probability he develops into a reliable starting QB.  Murray, I'm pretty confident.  Jones, I think there's a chance.  Haskins not so  much.  I'd put the odds he is a top 15 QB at about 1%.  

16 Carolina: Brian Burns, OLB Florida State

Burns has a lot of supporters in the draft community.   He's great off the snap.  He needs to develop the strength to do something once he beats the OT off the line.  He seems to have the frame to add bulk.  Pretty good pick considering the Panthers are actually randomly switching to a 3-4.

  

17 N.Y. Giants: Dexter Lawrence, DT Clemson

The Giants got this pick from the Beckham trade and predictably more Gettleman gags ensued.  I wonder if Gettleman is laughing as Odell Beckham is rubbing his sore hip, complaining about how he wants to wear a watch while he plays, and probably moans about how he should get paid like a quarterback.

18 Minnesota: Garrett Bradbury,  N.C. State

I didn't get too deep watching Bradbury games, but by all accounts this is a great fit for an offense now helmed by Gary Kubiak. 

19 Tennessee: Jeffrey Simmons, DT Miss. State

If you had 19 in the pool for how far will a top 15 talent drop who recently tore his ACL and had an off-field assault incident from three years ago..you win!  My money was somewhere between 28 and 35. Medical red shirts have such a bad track record I worry this pick doesn't make sense for their roster construction. 

   

20 Denver: Noah Fant, TE Iowa

I loved this pick in the moment.  Fant has been a little erratic in preseason, but I remain a believer.  I still like his Jimmy Graham potential.  Enough rookies have blown up in this era of hyper-focused real-time analysis that people forget it's actually more likely than not that a lot of these players will take a few years to pop.  

21 Green Bay: Darnell Savage, S Maryland

Maybe my favorite pick of the first round?  Savage swarming to the ball in both pass coverage and run support jumped off the screen watching Maryland's defense last year.  If he played at Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, or LSU I'm pretty sure he would have been a top 15 pick. 

 

22 Philadelphia:  Andre Dillard, OT Washington State

The storyline about the Eagles jumping in front of Houston to steal Dillard was maybe a little overblown.  People are filling in a few too many blanks and counting them as facts for my liking, but it was a nice pick for Philly to potentially find their future LT for the rest of Wentz's career before they actually need him.  

23 Houston: Tytus Howard, OT Alabama State

I got nothin' on Tytus Howard.  Sorry.  Analysts I respect think this was a major reach.  

24 Oakland: Josh Jacobs, RB Alabama

This is a great fit, but it feels a little like they were bidding against themselves here.  Montez Sweat fell into their laps.  If nothing else, take Jacobs at 27  and take advantage of a deep safety class to land somebody else at pick 40 (maybe even Johnathan Abram). 

 

25 Baltimore: Marquise Brown, WR Oklahoma

I would've liked to have seen where Brown would have went without the foot injury.  It feels like he slipped though the cracks a little. 

26 Washington:    Montez Sweat, DE Mississippi State

Nice move by Washington.  They totally redeem themselves for the hokey Haskins pick.  

27 Oakland: Johnathan Abram, S Miss. State

Raiders take Abram with another culture pick.  It's always easier said than done just to say they should have traded down, but it feels like they could have leveraged this pick better to acquire more valuable assets for their roster.  

28 L.A. Chargers: Jerry Tillery, DT Notre Dame

Nice blend of value and need for this solid interior D-line force.

  

29 Seattle:    L. J. Collier, DE TCU

This feels like a Seattle pick.  They have an arrogance about their evaluations where they take players 20 picks high just to flaunt that they are smarter than you..Their roster is thinning because they haven't hit too much the last few years. 

 

30 N.Y. Giants:    Deandre Baker, CB Georgia

Giants trade back in to nab the first CB off the board.  I don't quite see enough value here to justify spending resources to trade back in. The early returns haven't been great. 

  

31 Atlanta:   Kaleb McGary, OT Washington

I like their approach to carpet bomb their O-line needs. I'm just not sure they got the right player. Cody Ford anyone?

32 New England: N'Keal Harry, WR Arizona State

Yikes did NE miss on another WR pick? Harry looks like a player that has the physicality to succeed in college, but might not have enough juice to translate to the pros.  His combine times weren't terrible, but his play speed during his games just looked slow to me.  I was terrified they were going to take A.J. Brown or Deebo Samuel here.  They seem like perfect fits in their system.  Actually, New England had one of those drafts where swapping the first and third round picks totally changes my perception of how they did..  Chase Winnovich in the first and N'Keal Harry in the third and I'm singing their praises.  Great job getting a player like Winnovich in the third, but Harry seems like a wasted pick.    

2019 NFL Season Predictions

The NFL is back!  What better time than the eve of week 2 to unleash my 2019 predictions?? (bear with me here.  better late than never right?)  For the record, I predicted the records for each team and wrote all of the team blurbs before the season started, but I didn't get the playoff predictions done until after week 1 results were in.  Here's how I see 2019 playing out:

 

Baltimore 11-5

The ravens offense is zagging as the league is zigging.  Greg Roman will deliver an effective unit.  It should work for this year anyway.  The secondary is great and the Ravens have an uncanny ability to reload in the defensive front seven.

Cleveland 9-7

The hype is cooling a little.  I'm not willing to admit Mayfield into the top tier QB club quite yet.  The talent is there, but something feels a little off.  I see a few growing pains, and some bad luck keeping them out of the playoffs this year. 

Cincinnati 6-10

If you listen to the media the sky is falling, but if you really look at it, the roster talent is about the same: 8 win team. 9 or 10 wins if they are lucky.  6 or 7 wins if they are unlucky (again, based on the players on the team).  That said, I'd say the unknown variables of an inexperienced coaching staff could drive their win total anywhere from 2 to 12.  A lot would have to go right for them to get to double digit wins and based on preseason injuries there's little hope of that happening.

  

Pittsburgh 10-6

The steelers have been a little under the radar.  Many projected a dip based on offseason roster movement.  Roethlisberger is still the driving force to their success or failure.  If he comes out sluggish like he has the past couple of years, they might find themselves on the outside looking in of the playoff hunt.  I've come around from totally fading the Steelers to thinking Roethlisberger has one more year left in him.  

Houston        10-6

The Texans are pushing a lot of chips onto the table to try to seize the moment.  We'll see if they can stay healthy enough to capitalize.  They have the best quarterback in the AFC South by far.  I don't think they run away with the division, but they'll be good enough.

Indianapolis 9-7

Don't forget, GM Chris Ballard has seemingly hit on every roster move he's made for the last two offseasons.  Sir Andrew might be riding off into the sunset, but the roster talent is still pretty strong here.  

Jacksonville 7-9 Sure Nick Foles is better than Blake Bortles, but how many wins will the jags get if Foles doesn't have someone else playing the first 10 games for him?  His magic doesn't kick in until November.  

Tennessee 8-8

This feels like a scrappy team that is going to get to 8 wins and we all are going to wonder how it happened.  QB woes keep them away from Jan. football once again.  

Buffalo 9-7

The Bills D was strong last year and they made a few additions that could tick them up even another notch.  If Fitzmagic was the early season fun storyline of 2018, I think Josh Allen is going to be the odds-defying force of nature buzz story to storm out of the gate this year.  "Josh All-In".  "Joshy Al-Pro"... eh, we still have to come up with a clever, catchy nickname.  

Miami 3-13

The dolphins traded one of the few bright spots on their offensive roster a week before the season. They have a couple pieces on defense, but not enough to carry  them out of the bottom tier of the league. Their WR's were electric last year until injuries wrecked their depth.  If they come back healthy, maybe  hard-nosed new head coach Brian Flores can drag them to 6 or 7 wins?  3 to 5 is more likely.

  

New England      11-5

Unless the Bills' D is generational, the Patriots will be waiting another year for someone to challenge them for the AFC east title.  Brady is old.  A nagging calf injury that sinks them to 8 or 9 wins isn't out the realm of possibilities, but 11 wins is likely the highest probability.

New York Jets  6-10

I like Darnald, but I don't think there's quite enough around him yet to challenge for playoff contention.  The o-line and the WR corps still need a little work and the secondary is frightening (not in a good way). 

Denver 9-7 The Broncos surprise a little here with a punishing defense and an offense that will drive the speed limit but not much more.  They could win a lot of games with a score of 17-14.  

Kansas City 13-3

Typically a historical season leads to regression the following year.  I think Mahommes will top what he did last year and hit 57 TD's to claim his catchup prize from Heinz.

Oakland 7-9 It's hard to make up the storylines that have unfolded in the preseason.  I don't know if we'll ever see Antonio Brown play for this team, but somehow Jon Gruden will surpise some people this year.  Still, this roster is only half built.  I have a hard time seeing more than 8 wins with this team.

  

L.A. Chargers   7-9

LAC can't catch a break. It doesn't seem like they ever catch breaks. 2018 actually went fairly smooth compared to normal which means this year the Chargers will again be back to stepping on upside down rakes buried in the leaves.. WHAMMMM!!their LT all of a sudden has blood clot problems..WHAMMMMM!!their RB1 decided he needed more money than he's worth.  

Chicago 6-10

Okay, 6 wins is a little harsh here.  They are probably a 10 win team that falls short of their potential for reasons outside their control.  Mitch Trubisky is fine.  I'm not sure he'll ever be more than that.  The defense is great, but I just don't think the offense has the horses. 

 

Detroit 7-9

I have a feeling about a Stafford resurgence but every time I go to type a 9 in the "W" column, I remember Matt Patricia is their coach.

  

Green Bay 8-8

They have a fledgling monster on their hands with their defense.  I like what they are building.  This win total is a bet against Matt Lafleur mostly.  "Cram it in your cramhole Lafleur!".. Sorry I can't say that name without thinking of that quote.

Minnesota 11-5

Minnesota has continued to re-sign their core pieces while also adding improvements like offensive coach Gary Kubiak, and center Garrett Bradbury.  Zimmer and the boys are bound to be a little angry about how 2018 played out.  They bounce back in 2019.  

Atlanta 10-6

I have a soft spot for teams that dump significant resources into their offensive line.  It's hard to be successful without a stable offense and it's hard to have a stable offense without a good line.  

Carolina 10-6

The bold move switching to a 3-4 and turning their play-making DT's into 3-4 DE's pays off.  Cam Newton comes back strong.  

New Orleans 10-6

The saints slug their way to a division title, but have enough hiccups to miss out on the first round bye. 

Tampa Bay 2-14

Something doesn't smell right about Bruce Arians coming out of retirement to coach the Buccaneers.  I don't think it is going to go well.  I have them in the bottom tier of the league with Washington, right behind Arizona and Miami.  

Dallas 11-5

A magical season could be on the horizon for Dallas.  Every other day they sign someone to an extension so I'm not sure how long they can hold the roster together, but for now they snag a first round bye.  

New York Giants 8-8

8-8 doesn't sound pretty, but considering the Giants have been the punching bag of sports media for the last 6 months, this feels like a moral victory.  Maybe this is wishful thinking though.. You try sitting on Daniel Jones island alone with only Dave Gettleman to keep you company.  Danny Dimes needs to light up some D's so that i can have more people to talk to.

Philadelphia 7-9

Carson Wenz has been plagued with injuries early in his career. Now Philly doesn't have anyone behind him proven to be capable of picking up the slack when Wentz goes down.

  

Washington 2-14

The short term quarterback solution doesn't look pretty, and I'm not a believer in Dwayne Haskins.  This is going to go south quickly.  

Arizona 4-12

Everyone's excited to see what Arizona's offense looks like.  Execution will be sloppy out of the gate.

 

L.A. Rams 9-7

The Super Bowl hangover affects all teams and leaves no survivors!!.. except the Patriots

San Francisco 7-9

They keep dumping resources into their defensive line and it keeps not moving the needle.  Another mediocre year and the Shanahan/Lynch era looks to be in jeopardy. 

Seattle 9-7

Can their secondary hold up? How many PRP injections does Bobby Wagner have to get before his body heals papercuts like wolverine?  Can Brian Schottenheimer muster any semblance of an interesting NFL offense?    

Playoff predictions:

The broncos D blugeons quarterbacks all the way to the wild card round where they face a quarterback fast enough to just outrun them.  It's close, but the ravens triumph.

Houston draws Pittsburgh and can't handle the power of the AFC North. 

The Patriots face their kryptonite in the divisional round and Baltimore squeaks into the AFC championship game. 

The Chiefs make short work of the Steelers' swiss cheese secondary setting up a dual between the league's most dynamic passing and rushing attacks.  I'll give Mahommes the edge against anyone at this point and the Chiefs are on their way to the Super Bowl. 

The Seahawks squeak out the NFC west title, but draw the punishing Carolina d-line in round 1.  Panthers cruise in this one.

How about  a Saints/Falcons playoff matchup to stir an already juicy rivalry?  The saints are too much for the falcons on both sides of the ball. 

Dallas' o-line is strong enough to stave off the Panthers. Has Dallas re-signed Dak yet because the price tag just keeps on going up?

 

The Minnesota miracle part 2 shocks the world with a Dalvin Cook punt return for a touchdown as time expires.  New Orleans shrivels in despair after a third straight season ends on a last second catastrophe.

 

The Vikings magic continues as they eek out a defensive struggle 13-10 against an evenly-matched Cowboys team. 

The Chiefs offensive season of dominance culminates in a 34 point super bowl performance against a great defense.  The Vikings can't keep up.. 34-23   

That's all folks.  Enjoy the season!

With the 11th Pick in the NFL Draft The Cincinnati Bengals...

Exciting round 1.  Here's my reaction to the 11th pick and a very rough attempt to stack a Bengals board for round 2.

There's a lot of exciting talent queued up for round 2!

The Cincinnati Bengals select Jonah Williams!
Alright I'll admit, my first reaction to the pick was a little bit of a disappointed shoulder shrug.  Not because of the @#($& narrative that analysts always have to bring up about fans never getting excited when their team drafts an offensive lineman.. That drives me crazy.  I am smart enough to realize that in order for my team to be successful, they need a good offensive line.  Get out of here with that lazy crappy analysis.  My reaction was more about:

1. Disappointment they missed out on Hockenson
This TE class is loaded.  You could argue Detroit taking him at 8 was a blessing as Cincy will have opportunities to acquire slightly lesser prospects with a similar skill set later in the draft.  I was more let down that I had this vision of a direction they could go with the team and I wanted to see what they would do if that option was on the table. 

2. I had Taylor and Ford higher than Williams.
Originally, I put Dillard above him too, but I bumped Dillard down a slot a couple days ago.  I thought Williams had more versatility , but Taylor and Ford had better potential as high caliber starting OT's.  Williams reminds me of the Billy Price pick.  He's going to be pretty good.  Can he be great?  I'm not so sure.  That said, there are a wide variety of opinions on Williams from high quality analysts. Some think he's the best offensive lineman in the class.  Some think he's not great and he should move to center.  I fall closer to the former.  I'm not doing cartwheels, but I think he'll be a quality starter for a long time.  In a system that punishes you for missing on draft picks sometimes it's not a bad thing to pay for a floor on a prospect.  You have to be careful that you don't get carried away with that approach and box yourself into mediocrity, but with offensive line I think it's a good approach.    Seeing how the first round played out, I feel better about the pick.  Ford and Taylor both fell out of the first round which means either they have some kind of medical or off the field red flag(s) or I'm smarter than the whole league.  Again, lean heavily on the former. Also, watching Houston take a wild swing on a boom or bust developmental OT prospect also made me appreciate Williams more.

Bengals Big Board - Round 2:
1. Irv Smith, TE Alabama
Whatever disappointment I had yesterday of not getting Hockenson or uncertainty if Jonah Williams was the right OT to take would evaporate if they got Smith in round 2.  Sneaky not that much of a downgrade from Hockenson receiving or blocking.  I didn't think he'd fall this far.

2. Juwaan Taylor, OT Alabama
I can't see why he fell unless he has some dehabilitating medical issue.  If that's the case ignore this ranking.  OT, OT, might be a little aggressive and I'd have to wrestle with it more to decide if I really would actually do that, but don't rule it out.  Both Bengals starting OT's have question marks, whether it's injury (Glenn) or skill level (Hart).

3. Cody Ford, OT Oklahoma
He's really good. I could see them potentially doubling up on OT for him too.

4. D.K Metcalf, WR Mississippi
I'm also not 100% sure about taking a WR here, but the upside might be too great to pass up.

5. Hakeem Butler, WR Iowa State
Another guy that could develop into an all-pro talent.. Kind of reminds me of a bigger version of Chad Johnson.  Fluid. Fluid. Fluid.

6. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, S Florida
I had this guy as the best safety I watched.  He's not a thumper, but he can read, react, and tackle in a flash and his coverage skills are good enough to double as a slot corner.

7. Byron Murphy, CB Washington
Top CB in the class.  Undersized and not overly athletic, but he can cover.

8. Chase Winovich, DE Michigan
Not sure where he would stack vs. Sam Hubbard and Jordan Willis, but I'd say don't get cute and just take him.  His motor is relentless and he has on-field production and good athletic testing to go with it.

9. Parris Campbell, WR Ohio State
Really solid underrated weapon.  I think when teams ask him to do more with his routs, he will be up to the task. Sorry John Ross, you've had plenty of time to make your mark.

10. Nasir Adderley, S Delaware
Great combination of run/pass defensive skills with athleticism to make game-breaking plays.

11. Drew Lock?, QB Missouri
Drew Lock should legally change his name to put a question mark at the end.  Okay, I'm not sold on this move either.  I think they should ride out the Dalton era, but I think taking a QB in the second round might give them the best of both worlds: Decent prospect to have as a backup plan that doesn't threaten team chemistry enough to prematurely sabotage the Dalton era.

DT's or LB's?  
The draft board at this point is part of the reason this might be the time to snag Lock if he falls.  Their biggest needs are DT, TE, LB, and maybe DE.  With Tillery and my top five DT's gone, I couldn't tell you who to target next (Trysten Hill, Central Florida maybe?  I didn't get to his tape.  I'm not sure. I've heard a mixed bag on him).  They are better off waiting for the board to sort itself out.  LB's?  I'll list some names to watch out for, but they could try to wait a round and see who's left.  TE?  Past Irv Smith, I think you wait.  DE?  Winovich is about the only name I'd see as an upgrade to the roster.  There are others I've heard good things about, but who knows.  I think adding depth at OT, CB, S, WR, or yes even QB might be the best option here.

LB's to watch out for:
1. Mack Wilson, Alabama
2. Germaine Pratt, North Carolina State
3. Jahlani Tavai, Hawaii
4. Ben Burr-Kirven, Washington

Other names to watch out for
A.J. Brown, WR Mississippi
Not sure how he'd fit.  Maybe he'd just be Boyd insurance?

Deebo Samuel, WR South Carolina
Tough gritty receiver.  Golden Tate-like?

Kelvin Harmon, WR North Carolina State
Good WR2 potential, but do they need it?

Dalton Risner, OT Kansas State
good OT/G prosepct. Nasty, but he looks like he should have more power than he shows while he blocks. I don't like him as much as most people.
Greedy Williams, CB LSU
Great cover guy, crappy attitude.
Rock Ya-Sin, CB Temple
Nice upgrade in the CB2 slot if Dennard never pans out there.
Erik McCoy, C Texas A&M
Can he play guard?
Zach Allen, DE Boston College
Might be just another guy like the ones they already have.

Other corners I've read good things about:
Julian Love, Notre Dame
Justin Layne, Michigan State

2019 Mock Draft!

I made it just under wire!  Here are my annual futile predictions for the festivities Thurs. night.

1. Arizona Kyler Murray, QB Oklahoma
Quarterback is significantly more important than any other position and Murray has the potential to be a top ten QB in the league.  Some people might like Josh Rosen more than I do, but I think Murray has better long-term potential than Rosen and Rosen isn't exactly entrenched in the franchise to where uprooting him is going to cause strife.  The cardinals should pick Murray, but I'm going to predict a blockbuster deal with the Oak Vegas Grudens.

2. San Francisco Nick Bosa, DE Ohio State
The 49ers have invested heavily at D-line.  Matt Millen thinks they should keep up the trend.  I don't think they have another option here.  I can't see anyone trading up.  They go ahead and take the best player available. 

3. N.Y. Jets                Ed Oliver, DT Houston
The Jets are supposedly sticking with a 3-4 after hiring Gregg Williams.  I suspect they'll mix it up and adding Ed Oliver to a line that already has Leonard Williams will give them a lot of flexibility to show a lot of different looks. 

4. Oakland                Jawaan Taylor, OT Florida
The Cardinals move down in an effort to compile more talent.  Quinnen Williams is the safest pick, but D-line depth in this class allows them to go elsewhere.  Fixing the offensive line will be the top priority. 

5. Tampa Bay        Josh Allen, OLB Kentucky
The Buccaneers didn't expect Williams to fall, but DC Todd Bowles has already spent months dreaming up what he is going to do with Allen.   They stick to the plan. 

6. N.Y. Giants       Quinnen Williams, DT Alabama
Will they or won't they? There's been extensive debate as to if and when the Giants will take a QB.  If Williams falls in their lap, the answer is no.

7. Jacksonville       Montez Sweat, DE Mississippi State
I've had Hockenson penciled in here for a while, but the jaguars are d-linemen addicts.  Just the thought of a massive wingspan and a 1.5 s 10 yard split makes them...sweat.  (sorry, pun mostly intended)

8. Detroit               Devin White, LB LSU
The Lions try to stabilize their defense picking a young athletic player to stick right in the middle of it.  Oh Detroit..This should go a little better than a couple years ago when the tried it with Jarrad Davis, but I don't think they'll quite get what they're hoping for.   

9. Buffalo               Jonah Williams, OT Alabama
The Bills have drastic O-line needs.  They could slide in Williams as an upgrade at just about any spot. 

10. Denver               Garrett Bradbury, C North Carolina State

 If they want Joe Flacco to have a prayer they'll have to protect him.  They tried to address OT in free agency.  Now they sure up center.

11. Cincinnati      T.J. Hockenson, TE Iowa
The Bengals shock the world and pass on QB!  What an out of touch franchise!  How could they possibly do that???..   I can hear all of those narratives already. 

You'll see people.  Just wait. I'm telling you, this guy will plug right into their current personnel like the one missing part in a finely tuned engine .  Once he gets his feet wet, this offense will hum... as long as the o-line doesn't crumble.  Ok, maybe they'll have to go OT or G in round 2.

12. Green Bay      Devin Bush, LB Michigan
The packers stocked up on OLB's in free agency.  Now they have a shark to patrol the middle of their defense. 

13. Miami              Cody Ford, OT Oklahoma
The dolphins need… well, everything.  They have a LT, a CB, and a FS, but every other starting slot is up for grabs.  Let's start with the O-Line.  Now they have a RT too. 

14. Atlanta             Christian Wilkins, DT Clemson
The Falcons add some beef up front. 

15. Washington     Andre Dillard, OT Washington State
There's only one OT left, and there's plenty of OT hungry teams below waiting to pounce.  Houston moves up for O-line help. 

16. Carolina             Brian Burns, DE Florida State
The Panthers would have loved an OT, but the Texans snatched Dillard right out from under them.  Fortunately, they are thin at DE too.  Now they have a 6'5" screamer who bends like gumby and has a lightning quick first step. 

17. N.Y. Giants      Clelin Ferrell, DE Clemson
The Giants need help in a lot of areas, but DE is particularly bare.  I think they wait on QB. Dave Gettleman will get criticized for not taking a quarterback even though he would also get criticized for taking any of the quarterbacks available in this class. 

18. Minnesota      Dalton Risner, OT Kansas State
The Vikings have invested cap resources almost everywhere.  Now they need some cheap offensive linemen. 

19. Tennessee       Rashan Gary, DE Michigan
The Titans brought in Cameron Wake at DE, but right now he has no one to groom.  Now he has a pupil. 

20. Pittsburgh      Noah Fant, TE Iowa
Fant slid a little more than I anticipated.  The Steelers have a lot of targets to replace. 

21. Seattle             Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, S Florida
He won't make them forget about Earl Thomas by any means, but when he breaks on the ball their jaws will drop.    

22. Baltimore     Irv Smith Jr., TE Alabama
NE moves up to get their TE replacement.

23. Houston             Dwayne Haskins, QB Ohio State
Washington moves down and still gets their man. As long as he doesn't go to Cincy, I'm good.    

24. Oakland             Chris Lindstrom, G Boston College
This turns into Arizona's pick with Oakland's trade up to number 1.  Keep building that O-line. 

25. Philadelphia      A.J. Brown, WR Mississippi
The Eagles bolster their offensive weapons with a punishing slot receiver. 

26. Indianapolis       Byron Murphy, CB Washington
I don't know if this is their biggest need, but it's somewhere on the list.  Murphy will be solid but Colts fans won't know what to do with a rookie that doesn't make all-pro. C'mon! Get it together Ballard!

27. Oakland              Chase Winovich, DE Michigan
Mayock and Gruden are definitely sitting in a room somewhere cackling with joy over Winovich tape right now. 

28. L.A. Chargers     Dexter Lawrence, DT Clemson
Need and value seem to match here. 

29. Seattle              Marquise Brown, WR Oklahoma
I think Doug Baldwin just got hurt some more while I was typing this.  Seattle needs a backup plan. 
Maybe picking a guy who already has a serious foot injury isn't the best plan, but I still like the fit.

30. Green Bay     D.K. Metcalf, WR Mississippi
Trades, trades, and more trades.  I'm not sure who makes this pick, but Metcalf's slide ends here.

31. L.A. Rams    Daniel Jones, QB Duke
The Giants trade back in to take their QB.  This would be annoying because all of the whining about Dave Gettleman would just go up 17 more octaves.  Personally, I like the move.  Then again, I'm just hanging out on Daniel Jones island sipping kool-aid with Dave.     

32. New England     Darnell Savage, S Maryland
Ughh.. I hope NE doesn't get this guy.  Luckily in this case they've traded out of here.   Baltimore, you can't have him either.  You're trading out of the first round all together. 

Bengals Big Board - 2019

1. Kyler Murray, QB Oklahoma
Murray has a realistic chance to develop into an upgrade at QB.  That's a chance you have to take.

2. Nick Bosa, DE Ohio State
Potential all-pro defender to build the future defense around.

3. Quinnen Williams, DT Oklahoma
Ditto on the all-pro comment.  And they could use an upgrade at the second DT starting slot where they've had a lot of injuries and mediocre play.

4. Ed Oliver, DT Houston
Again, potential all-pro defender.  Sign me up.  I paused on this one because I'm not sure how well Oliver fits next to Geno Atkins.  In the end Oliver is too talented to pass up.  Worst case you have a strong rotation and a shoe-in cornerstone of the defense for Atkins to pass the baton to in a couple of years.

5. Jawaan Taylor, OT Florida
RT might be Cincy's greatest position of need, and Taylor played RT in college.  He's talented enough to move to LT if Cordy Glenn's injury woes continue.

6. T.J. Hockenson, TE Iowa
Analysts across the league are insisting the Bengals are going nowhere with the current roster and Zach Taylor should tear down the roster and start a new era with a new QB.  After Murray's gone, there's just not enough QB talent worth chasing here. I think Taylor is going to take a different approach.  Dalton needs support, but he's better than people are giving him credit.  I think Taylor sees somebody like Hockenson sitting there and he's licking his chops.  A  blocking TE with solid receiving skills and the athleticism to threaten all levels of the defense would really unlock this offense.  Roll out two tight end sets, wind up Joe Mixon, and let him go.  Blend in play action with the tight end(s) sneaking out into routs and A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd doing their thing.  I think they could surprise some people with how efficient they could be.  Yes, they signed Tyler Eifert and C.J. Uzomah as free agents, but I don't think that stops them from making this pick.  I think they need two or three guys that can start and Eifert is a bonus if they get another year or two out of him.  It's iffy if Hockenson will fall to 11, but I have my fingers crossed.

7. Noah Fant, TE Iowa
I have Fant higher than a lot of people.  Some people think he lacks consistency catching the ball and needs too much development to snag high in the first round.   I saw him make some pretty impressive catches.  He has room to grow obviously, but I think some of his issues in college were more about playing  in an offense that had ADD and a bad quarterback.  In a more focused role with a quarterback that can deliver the ball accurately and on time Fant is going to rack up catches and bring people to their knees with his athleticism.  People also assume he's a receiver only.  He's not a great blocker, but he's not a disaster either.

8. Cody Ford, OT Oklahoma
This is higher than most people have Ford, but he was a really strong RT in college that some think could move inside to guard if need be.  The Bengals can't write off any more seasons because they weren't prepared for attrition on the O-line, and Bobby Hart is a better plan B than a plan A.

9. Jonah Williams, OT Alabama
I know, I know..I'm waffling on my OT rankings from the other day.  I am bumping Williams ahead of Dillard.  He's a little more proven and he has more versatility.  If the TE's and the all-pro's are off the board, I think OT is their best bet.

10. D.K. Metcalf, WR Mississippi
Maybe the ghosts of the John Ross pick will keep them from taking another risky WR in the top 11, but the upside is too great for me.  He has the athleticism to contribute right way and he can be groomed for a larger role in the post-A.J. Green era a few years down the line.

11. Clelin Ferrell, DE Clemson
DE isn't the greatest area of need, but I just think the LB's are a little overrated at this point.  Pass rush talent is always a plus.

Picking 11th, they're guaranteed one of the players above will be available, but let's run through the options in case they trade down.

12. Montez Sweat, DE Mississippi St.
Best player available.  I still consider DE a premium position.

13. Brian Burns, DE Florida State
Burns will need some time, but he could be a star to build around.

14.  Andre Dillard, OT Washington State
Still some O-line talent left on the board.

15. Irv Smith, TE Alabama
Another TE with decent receiving skills that can block.

16. Rashan Gary, DE Michigan
Amazing athlete with tantalizing upside.

17. Devin White, LB LSU
I'd prefer to try to find a linebacker later, but at some point need  and value are going to match up
18. Devin Bush, LB Michigan

19. Hakeem Butler, WR Iowa State
Similar to the Brian Burns pick, except with a WR

20. Christian Wilkins, DT Clemson
Cross off the DT need.  Run defense might be a work in progress but, Wilkins playing next to Atkins on passing downs could turn into a scary combo.

21. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, S Florida
Gardner-Johnson's closing speed along with Jessie Bates and William Jackson would be handy trying to match up with modern offenses.

22. Dalton Risner, OT Kansas State
I still have my questions about Risner, but I'd be okay with him in this range.

23. A.J. Brown, WR Mississippi
A versatile receiver might come in handy with Boyd and Green going into contract years.

24. Dexter Lawrence, DT Clemson
More stout run stuffer with some ability to penetrate.  Might actually be a better fit fore their need than Wilkins.

25. Chris Lindstrom, G Boston College
Need to stay strong in the trenches.

26. Darnell Savage, S Maryland
Decent cover skills, outstanding in run support.

27. Marquise Brown, WR Oklahoma
Is this who they thought they were getting when they drafted John Ross?

28. Byron Murphy, CB Washington
With Jackson and Dennard in contract years, CB might be more of a need than you think.

29. Chase Winnovich, DE Michigan
Add some spark to the D-line.
30. Nasir Adderley, S Delaware
Upgrade the Shawn Williams slot.  Slight downgrade against the run to boost the pass defense.

31. Daniel Jones, QB Duke
Maybe it'd be best to wait to see if he falls to round 2, but a backup plan at QB might be in the cards.

32. Jeffrey Simmons, DT Mississippi St.
If you trade down this far, you're kind of acknowledging a mini rebuild.  Why not gamble on high-end talent that has to red shirt?

Note: I've left multiple center prospects off the board along with Josh Allen. I can't see them taking a center again and I'm not sure how well the guys available would fit at guard.  I just don't think Allen fits in their scheme.  

2019 NFL Draft - Defense Takes

DE
1. Nick Bosa, Ohio State
Bosa was anointed the top prospect in this class a long time ago. Watching his games I'll admit I was expecting him to pop a little more, but after watching pretty much all of the top prospects I still have Bosa as the best non-quarterback prospect.  I'd say his ceiling isn't quite as high as players like Murray, Ed Oliver,  Quinnen Williams, and even some of the WR prospects, but you're still talking about a guy with the potential to be an all-pro pass rusher, and  non-medically-influenced floor is higher than anybody else.

2. Clelin Ferrell, Clemson
Ferrell falls in the category of being consistently good for too long in college.  He's put mulitple years of high-end DE play on tape and now people are having trouble imagining him evolving into any more than a really good defensive end.  I think he fires off the snap better than anyone in this class.  As much as I like him, I can see the dilemma.  Would you be happy if your team drafted a Carlos Dunlap-level player in the first round?  I'd say yes.  How high would you be willing to take him if you knew that was probably his ceiling?  I think his actual ceiling might be higher than that, but  I've played around with my mock draft and I'm having trouble pulling the trigger in the 10 to 12 range.  I wouldn't fault anyone taking him there, but it would be a little bit of an "okay we'll see" shoulder shrug.

3. Montez Sweat, Mississippi
That brings us to our higher ceiling but lower floor prospects.  Sweat had great college production and backed it up with impressive combine numbers.  The pass-rush upside is a little higher, but the difference isn't significant enough to make up for the drop off in run defense and the slightly higher bust potential.

4. Brian Burns, Florida State
People are all over the map on Burns including an analyst I trust who ranks him as the best edge guy ahead of Bosa.  Burns is lightning quick, but there are concerns about his lean frame.  I'm not sure you can plug him in for three downs unless he beefs up a little.  A lot of people project him as having Aldon Smith potential (minus the off-field problems).  I thought he beat a lot of people with his first couple of steps but often lacked the power to capitalize.  He might develop  into a more well-rounded player, but I'd rather bet on the three guys I have ahead of him.  Still, he'll make a fine top 20 pick.

5.  Rashan Gary, Michigan
Gary has the athletic abiltiy at 280 lbs. to be a star, but he hasn't really proved it on the field yet.  I saw flashes of it watching him play, but not enough to trust him in the top 15.  Some people are projecting him as a DT, but I'd rather see him stick to DE.

6. Chase Winovich, Michigan
Less talent than Gary with better production.  Winovich has a high motor and a knack for finding his way to the ball.  He'll make some team picking in the last 10 picks of the first round very happy.

Edge
1. Josh Allen, Kentucky
I posted this article and then realized a day later that I forgot to include Josh Allen among the defensive prospects.  He definitely needs in the discussion, but  I'm not as high on him as everyone else.  He has great college production, but I think he'll be a good but not great as a pro.  I see him as purely a 3-4 player. .  I don't think he'll hold up if you try to play him at DE, and although he looked good on tape running downfield with TE's he doesn't quite have good enough movement skills to be successful as a 4-3 LB. Hopefully somebody snaps him up as a 3-4 OLB. 

DT
1. Quinnen Williams, Alabama
Williams has the size, strength, and quickness to give offenses fits against the run and pass.  He's not quite as sure of a thing as someone like Ndamukong Suh coming out, but he's well-worth a top 5 pick.

2. Ed Oliver, Houston
Undersized DT with elite athletic skill that shines through clearly watching his college games.  His size and skill set draws everyone's mind to Aaron Donald, but no one is willing to mention there names in the same sentence without apologizing profusely with the caveat that Oliver is not Aaron Donald.  I don't disagree, but in a way the knee jerk to avoid comparing Oliver to Donald has led to Oliver being undervalued.  Until recently people have projected Oliver towards the middle of the first round.  In a class that is relatively light on sure-fire top 5 talent, Oliver is clearly a top five pick for me.

3. Christian Wilkins, Clemson
I've seen Wilkins mocked anywhere from 9 to 32.  I think the real answer is right about in the middle of that range.  Wilkins is big and athletic enough to play 3 downs.  He penetrates well to make plays against the run and pass, but if O-linemen are able to engage him he sometimes struggles to hold his ground. I worry this will turn into a bigger problem against NFL talent.  The Clemson DT'S remind me of a couple of years ago when Alabama had the two big DT's, Jarran Reed and A'shawn Robinson.  Both were clearly good, but it was hard to tell how good.  The NFL ended up taking them in the second round.   Both have had some success in the league.  Maybe they should have gone a little higher, but nothing drastic.  Wilkins might be the best player of the four.  I'd take him in the 18 to 25 range.

4. Jeffery Simmons, Mississippi
Simmons is a top 12 talent that tore his ACL in pre-draft training.  Teams already hesitant on Simmons due to an off-field incident before college might wait to snap him up until the second round, but watch out for New England at 32.  If he were healthy with no red flags, I'd slot him third in this DT class behind Oliver.  Like Williams, he's a two-way interior player who can hold up against the run and wreak havoc against the pass.

5. Dexter Lawrence, Clemson
Lawrence has more size to occupy blockers inside, but less pass rush potential than anyone ahead of him on this list.  He's not merely a run stuffer by any means, but there's not enough pass rush upside to elevate him much higher than the mid 20's for me.

LB
1. Devin White, LSU
White has drawn plenty of hype for his college play and his speedy combine numbers have only fueled the fire.  There haven't been too many mocks slotting him outside the top 12.  That's too rich for my blood.  He's good enough to start right away, but I don't think his talent level is high enough to transcend positional value.  Once he sees the play, he attacks and makes a lot of plays in the backfield against the run and the pass.  I just saw too many instances where he read the play too slow or misdiagnosed and got washed out of the play.  He needs protection up front.  If o-linemen get to the second level he struggles to hold his ground or shed and get to the ball.  That's true for many linebackers, but not the ones I'm comfortable taking in the top 10 (even in a draft class not brimming with top 10 talent).  I wouldn't take him ahead of the top pass rushers, receivers, or OT's.  Wait until the 15 to 20 range. 

2. Devin Bush, Michigan
Bush is slightly smaller and slightly less athletic than White.  I'd actually say his instincts are a little better than White's.  White makes a few more splash plays.  Bush roams the second level a little better.  I'd still give the slight nod to White, but Bush five or ten picks later is probably better value.

CB
1. Byron Murphy, Washington
Undersized players who test on the slow side don't usually get first round consideration.  That just speaks to how solid Murphy plays in coverage.  He'll fall a little further than a normal CB1, but somewhere in the second half of the first round is likely.

2. Greedy Williams, LSU
Williams is a better athlete than Murphy and looked impressive covering some of this years's top receiving talent.   Ego, attitude, and arrogance also jumped off the screen in his game tape.  That's not necessarily a negative for many positions including corner, but in this case it seemed to lead to concentration lapses and inconsistent play.  Williams might still go in the first round, but some teams may just decide he's not worth the trouble.

S
1. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Florida
Twitchy player with great instincts and awesome closing speed.  Gardner-Johnson is a free safety with the versatility to hold up in man coverage.

2. Darnell Savage, Maryland
Athletic safety that reads plays quickly and gets to the ball in a hurry.  Sometimes he's a little too aggressive and gets out of position, but once if he's surrounded by better talent, hopefully he won't feel like he has to do it all and he'll reign in his decision-making a little.  If he played for Alabama, I think he'd be a top 15 pick.

3. Nasir Adderley, Delaware
Well-rounded playmaker.  Looks athletic against small school competition. We'll see if he holds up in the pros.   

4. Johnathan Abram, Mississippi St. 
More of a thumper with some coverage skills.

2019 NFL Draft - QB Takes and More on Offense

QB
1. Kyler Murray, Oklahoma
Murray is the clear #1 player in this class for me.  He's no sure thing, but quarterback is two to five times more important than any other position and Murray has the potential to be a top 10 quarterback in the league.  The running ability isn't quite as good as Lamar Jackson, but he's a much better passer.  He has a good arm.  Anticipation and ability to read the field is the most important QB trait for me.  It's hard to say how good he is in those areas, but he showed enough to at least check those boxes as not a concern.  He runs a lot. He'll have to reign in those instincts a little.  His running ability can and should serve as a potent weapon in whatever offense he plays in and he's good at avoiding hits, but when the best player on your team is 5'10" and scrawny I don't think you want him getting 10+ carries per game.  There were a couple plays in college games where D-linemen were only able to get one hand on him with their arm fully extended and they pulled him down like a rag doll.  That gives me pause, but I think he has a chance to be successful with the way quarterbacks are protected these days.  He showed plenty of ability to scramble and throw on the run.  People bristle when you compare prospects to elite players, but you see shades of Russel Wilson  here and there.  It feels like a lazy comparison, but it's there.   

2. Daniel Jones, Duke
I'm on a little bit of an island on this one.  A lot of analysts I trust have bashed Jones pretty hard, but I think there might be something here. Everyone agrees he is big and athletic. When you start discussing his accuracy and downfield throwing ability, my opinion diverges from the norm.  I see a guy with a strong ability to process the play as it unfolds and make quick accurate decisions with the football. I think he is really strong throwing short to intermediate routes. He doesn't have a rocket arm, but he can push the ball downfield. He has decent deep accuarcy.  Not great.  Not elite. But solid.  Above average.  Rewatching some of his games I see more of his warts,  but my initial gut reaction was that he can play.    Think Andy Dalton 2.0 with better physical traits  or very rich man's Ryan Tannehill with better processing skills. I'm not sure about plugging him in day one, but I see starter potential. Others see a guy overhyped for his protypical size with a mediocre arm and bad accuracy.  We'll see who's right!  I'm excited to see how it plays out. 

3. Drew Lock, Missouri
Lock is a late riser for me.  The first couple games I watched I almost threw up.  I thought he was almost undraftable.  Then I got to some of the games later in the year and he won me over a little bit.   He played particularly well against Florida.  He comes across as a golden boy type of quarterback:  Tall, athletic, strong arm.. I have no idea what color his hair is, but I picture it as blonde.  Still, when the crap hits the fan I'm not sure he's going to do too well off-script.    Some games he looks like he doesn't know how to throw the ball.  Other times he looks Mitch Trubisky-ish.. not that that's super high praise, but you're at least talking about a prosepct taken in the top five.  I'd lean towards the mid to late second round for Lock. Let someone else take the risk if they want to take him higher.

4. Dwayne Haskins, Ohio State
Haskins has drawn a lot of high praise, so maybe my expectations were a little too high going in.  I was startled by his lack of deep accuracy.  He made a nice deep throw in the TCU game early in the year, but beyond that he seemed to have area code accuracy on anything more than 15 yards down the field.  The Purdue game was frightening. He looked like he couldn't handle pressure and he couldn't  process fast enough.  His lack of mobility is a concern.  I don't know if I'd count on him developing into a starter.  I wouldn't take him before the third round. 

5. Will Grier, West Virginia
Feisty player.  Never shows fear.  He has some starter potential, but he has kind of a low ceiling.  I think he has some physical limitations.  He's accurate deep down the field, but he looks like a kid trying to throw a football that's too big for him.   His vibe reminds me of Jake Delhomme or maybe Case Keenum.   

RB
1. Josh Jacobs, Alabama
He didn't run the fastest but he shows burst on his tape.  He catches the ball well, and has an unbelievable ability to deliver punishment to defenders.  He weighed in at 220 and he plays like it, but he looks much leaner on the field.  Much like Hockenson at TE, Jacobs gets a big bump due to his blocking ability compared to other prospects at his position.  Everyone raves about his character.  He might sneak into the first round, but I'd slot him more in the 35 to 40 range.

WR
1. D.K. Metcalf, Mississippi
Beyond the top 2 or 3 prospects, this draft class might be best defined by the polarization surrounding just about everyone else, and Metcalf is one of the headliners. If you're worried about Metcalf's injuries that's one thing, but I don't think his lack of college production is a problem.  He has shown he needs to sharpen his rout running skills, but that's not necessarily an indictment on Metcalf.  Think of it from Ole Miss's perspective.  You have a hundred 18 to 22 year-olds and you need to win football games in the SEC.  Are you going to undertake the process of meticulously sculpting this piece of granite into a finely tuned wide receiving ninja?  Or are you going to send the incredible hulk screaming up the field every play to occupy the other team's best athletes while you spray the ball relentlessly underneath to A.J. Brown?  It's not a surprise Mississippi opted for option 2.  Metcalf showed enough ability on comeback routs and outs to prove he's capable of becoming more refined, but worst case scenario he can reprise his Mississippi role using his eye-popping size and speed off the line of scrimmage (1.45 S 10-yard-split on his 40 time- holy crap!).  Best case?  Well, with a little luck you might end up with Terrell Owens.  He's worth the risk in my book.   

2. Hakeem Butler, Iowa State
Big receivers have taken a hit over the past few years, but they're back with a vengeance in this class.   Butler measures in at 6'5" 227 lbs. and ran a 4.48 at the combine. Butler uses his size well and makes plays down field, but my favorite trait is just how smooth he looks for such a big player. 

3. Marquise Brown, Oklahoma
Brown's foot injury and his size are holding his draft stock down, but playmakers have high end value in this league.  I still like him as a Rd 1 pick. 

4.  A.J. Brown, Mississippi
He's showed his value as a slot receiver.  Will teams take a chance on him as an outside WR?  After about pick 20, I say yes.  His floor as a slot guy is fairly high.  Best case, you get a weapon all over the field.

5.  Miles Boykin, Notre Dame
I liked Boykin when I watched him.  He didn't look overly explosive in the games I watched, but his testing showed rare atlheticism (43.5" vertical, 140" broad jump) and the on-field production was definitely there.  I jumped him up ahead of the next few guys purely based on ceiling.

6. Deebo Samuel, South Carolina
Tough smaller target that makes plays all over the field.  I'm not totally confident his playmaking skills will translate against the elevated levels of defensive talent in the NFL, but somebody in the second round is going to take a chance to find out. 

7. Kelvin Harmon, North Carolina State
Solid receiver who wins with rout running.  I'm not sure he can be a WR1, but he'll likely be a fine WR2 for whoever takes him in the 50 to 60 range. 

8. Paris Campbell, Ohio State
Campbell seems a little underrated in this class. He's got game breaking speed and he stood out in an offense full of weapons.  I like his potential to develop into a reliable target.

9. N'keal Harry, Arizona State
He went to Arizona State!  He's a sundevil mannn!.. Sorry, couldn't resist.   Harry is a physical receiver that a lot of people have more highly rated than I do.  Maybe I just need to watch more, but he just didn't look very fluid to me.  His routs were clunky and he had a lot of wasted steps.  A lot of people love him, but when i was going through my list everyone above him has at least one well-defined trait that they can hang there hats on that is strong enough to outweigh any of their shortcomings to make me feel comfortable that they can be a quality starting WR in the league.  Campbells speed. Harmon's precision.  Samuel's grit.  Boykin's athleticism. Brown's cache in the middle of the field.  M. Brown's deep play making ability.  Butler's fluidity.  Metcalf's combination of size and burst down the field. 

TE
1. T.J. Hockenson, Iowa
The value of a blocking tight end with enough athleticism and receiving ability to get downfield and threaten the defense is underrated.   Hockenson is getting hype in this draft class, but it always has to be spelled out as to why you should rank a guy like this really high.  It adds so much versatility to any offensive scheme and it just feels like a lot of people don't quite grasp the full extent of it.  He's no Rob Gronkowski, but he's still well worth a top 10 pick. 

2. Noah Fant, Iowa
It's still crazy to me that one school has two elite prospects at the same position.  I would take both of these guys in the top 10.  Fant gets knocked for having less production than Hockenson, but I get the impression watching his games that it wasn't really his fault.  Iowa's offense just looked really scatter-brained to me.  They kept throwing to all of these different receivers and then they'd hit Fant on a play or two and it was like "whoa look at that guy."  He can't block like Hockenson, but I wouldn't say he's a useless blocker.  I'm not sure that it matters though.  You want this guy running routs as much as possible.  He has real Jimmy Graham potential (the good one that played with Drew Brees.. Not the one that tore up his knee and never seemed to recover).

3. Irv Smith, Alabama
I'm in on Smith too.  He's another two-way tight end. He basically seemed like a less athletic version of Hockenson.  I'd be surprised if he doesn't sneak into the back half of round 1.

OT
1. Jawann Taylor, Florida
Played RT at Florida. He looked physical in the run game and agile in the pass game. He's not a sure-fire hall of famer or anything, but he should start day 1.  An OT starved league will gobble him up in the top 8 picks .  Don't rule out top 5. 

2. Andre Dillard, Washington State
Dillard's prospects require quite a bit of projection due to the lack of a pro-style rushing attack in the scheme he played in at Washington State, but he showed off enough size and speed in his pass blocking that I think he'll develop quickly into a starting LT. 

3. Cody Ford, Oklahoma
Some project Ford as a G, but he looked pretty good at RT to me.  He's solid.  I don't think I'd project a high ceiling for him, but I think teams will find it hard to pass up on him based on need.

4. Jonah Williams, Alabama
Some like Williams in the top 10.  He's a hair behind these other guys to me, but he's still a top 20 prospect.  He can pass block and run block, but he doesn't seem to hold up to power rushers quite as well and wasn't as effective moving defenders in the running game as Ford and Taylor. 

5. Dalton Risner, Kansas State
Risner looks physically imposing on the field, and you can see a nasty mean streak in his game.  That considered, I wonder if he has a functional strength problem.  I was surprised how many times I saw him load up to lay into a defender and get stymied.


G/C
1. Garrett Bradbury, North Carolina State
Bradbury  is the one guy I've watched a little bit.   He's expected to be a plug and play starting center in the league. Look for him to come off the board in the 12 to 20 range. 

I haven't really watched anyone else closely in this group, but here are some of the names that have been bubbling to the surface late in the process as late day 1 early day 2 prospects. 
Elgton Jenkins, G Mississippi St.
Erik McCoy, C Texas A&M
Chris Lindstrom, G Boston College