The
2019 regular has come to a close and the playoffs are right around the
corner. I thought it would be fun to peek back at my predictions from the beginning of the year compared to what really happened. Here's how I fared:
Baltimore 11-5
The ravens offense is
zagging as the league is zigging. Greg Roman will deliver an effective
unit. It should work for this year anyway. The secondary is great
and the Ravens have an uncanny ability to reload in the defensive front seven.
Actual: 14-2
Not bad.
Turns out I didn’t come out strong enough on the ravens, but I didn’t
miss by much here.
Cleveland 9-7
The hype is cooling a
little. I'm not willing to admit Mayfield into the top tier QB club quite
yet. The talent is there, but something feels a little off. I see a
few growing pains, and some bad luck keeping them out of the playoffs this
year.
Actual: 6-10
3 games off is a little stiff again, but this synopsis fits
pretty well too.. Although “I see a few growing pains,” ..that's putting it a little mildly
Cincinnati 6-10
If you listen to the
media the sky is falling, but if you really look at it, the roster talent is
about the same: 8 win team. 9 or 10 wins if they are lucky. 6 or 7 wins
if they are unlucky (again, based on the players on the team). That said,
I'd say the unknown variables of an inexperienced coaching staff could drive
their win total anywhere from 2 to 12. A lot would have to go right for
them to get to double digit wins and based on preseason injuries there's little
hope of that happening.
Actual: 2-14
My boys under-performed
a little here. Although, to my point
they weren’t well equipped to deal with a lot of roster turmoil, and you could
argue they lost three of their 6 most important players before the season even
started in A.J. Green, Cordy Glenn, and Jonah Williams (two of which didn’t
play a game all year). They got decent
production out of the other three guys I'd slot at the top of their roster talent in Andy
Dalton, Geno Atkins, and William Jackson, but it just wasn’t enough. The
offensive line was reeling from the start.
Dalton looked frazzled by mid season.
The run game was struggling. The
defense ranked near the bottom of the league.
Despite all of that,
they lost by 1 at Seattle, lost by 4 at Buffalo, lost by 3 at home to Arizona,
and lost by 6 at Baltimore in 4 of the first 6 games. It can be a little dicey clinging too much to
moral victories, but when you comb back through the season it’s not
unreasonable to think they probably should have won another two or three games.
The big wild card was
always going to be the young coaching staff.
The top three coaches, Zach Taylor, Brian Callahan, and Lou Anarumo
didn’t have much coordinator experience between them and none of them had ever
sniffed a head coaching gig. They were
bound to go through some growing pains.
They struggled a little bit at times, but the national narrative that
they were a disaster was a bit unfair. Per the challenges described above, a
successful season would have been a tall order for even experienced staffs and
these guys were essentially cutting their teeth in the midst of chaos. They pushed through it though, and despite people
looking at the mounting losses and conjecturing poor team morale, when I
watched each game I didn’t think the players looked downtrodden or
demoralized. They seemed to fight hard,
and as the season wore on they improved quite a bit, particularly in the
offensive and defensive run games. If
you were being honest with yourself from the start, that’s really best you
could have hoped for. Now they have a
season under their belt, an offseason to reflect, and the number one pick in their
pocket to build with. One other note, how
about that special teams unit? It kind
of went under my radar, but looking at the final DVOA ratings for the year,
they were ranked 1st in the league. Not too shabby there Darron Simmons!
Pittsburgh 10-6
The steelers have been
a little under the radar. Many projected a dip based on offseason roster
movement. Roethlisberger is still the driving force to their success or
failure. If he comes out sluggish like he has the past couple of years,
they might find themselves on the outside looking in of the playoff hunt.
I've come around from totally fading the Steelers to thinking Roethlisberger
has one more year left in him.
Actual: 8-8
Uggh!.. I should have
gone with my gut and kept them squarely in the FADE column. I’ve been predicting Roethlisberger’s demise
for years and NOW he falls apart?
Houston 10-6
The Texans are pushing
a lot of chips onto the table to try to seize the moment. We'll see if
they can stay healthy enough to capitalize. They have the best
quarterback in the AFC South by far. I don't think they run away with the
division, but they'll be good enough.
Actual: 10-6
DING! Not bad. I'd say that
pretty much sums it up.
Indianapolis 9-7
Don't forget, GM Chris
Ballard has seemingly hit on every roster move he's made for the last two
offseasons. Sir Andrew might be riding off into the sunset, but the
roster talent is still pretty strong here.
Actual: 7-9
This was looking good
early in the year, but they kind of fell apart in the second half. Their offensive skill players were dropping
like flies and they just didn’t have the depth to withstand it. I'm confident Chris Ballard will correct that in 2020.
Jacksonville 7-9 Sure Nick Foles is better than Blake Bortles,
but how many wins will the jags get if Foles doesn't have someone else playing
the first 10 games for him? His magic doesn't kick in until
November.
Actual: 6-10
Ha, well a week one
Foles injury set the Jags up for the old Philly Foles formula. G. Minshew
stepped right in and did his part, but the Foles December magic just wasn’t
there this year.
Tennessee 8-8
This feels like a
scrappy team that is going to get to 8 wins and we all are going to wonder how
it happened. QB woes keep them away from Jan. football once
again.
Actual: 9-7
Well not bad on my
record prediction, and the QB thing was actually correct as far as Mariotta
goes. I just didn’t see Tannehill coming
in and lighting the league on fire…or Derek Henry becoming the best running
back for that matter.
Buffalo 9-7
The Bills D was strong
last year and they made a few additions that could tick them up even another
notch. If Fitzmagic was the early season fun storyline of 2018, I think
Josh Allen is going to be the odds-defying force of nature buzz story to storm
out of the gate this year. "Josh All-In". "Joshy
Al-Pro"... eh, we still have to come up with a clever, catchy
nickname.
Actual: 10-6
While he quieted some
of his detractors with some improved play this year, the Josh Allen rocket ship
didn’t quite take off like I thought.
Lamar Jackson stole the keys and stole the show.
Miami 3-13
The dolphins traded
one of the few bright spots on their offensive roster a week before the season.
They have a couple pieces on defense, but not enough to carry them out of
the bottom tier of the league. Their WR's were electric last year until injuries
wrecked their depth. If they come back healthy, maybe hard-nosed
new head coach Brian Flores can drag them to 6 or 7 wins? 3 to 5 is more
likely.
Actual: 5-11
I was close!..except instead
of nifty receivers they used a little bit of FitzMagic to dazzle their way to 5
wins.
New England
11-5
Unless the Bills' D is
generational, the Patriots will be waiting another year for someone to
challenge them for the AFC east title. Brady is old. A nagging calf
injury that sinks them to 8 or 9 wins isn't out the realm of possibilities, but
11 wins is likely the highest probability.
Actual: 12-4
I deserve a little
credit here. Doesn’t it feel like they went 10-6 or 11-5?
New York Jets
6-10
I like Darnold, but I
don't think there's quite enough around him yet to challenge for playoff
contention. The o-line and the WR corps still need a little work and the
secondary is frightening (not in a good way).
Actual: 7-9
I think I
got this one right too. The week 17 win
against the Bills’ backups bumped their record a little, but this seems like a
6-win team.
Denver 9-7 The Broncos surprise a little here with a
punishing defense and an offense that will drive the speed limit but not much
more. They could win a lot of games with a score of 17-14.
Actual: Close one
right?..Well, not exactly. Just don’t look at my playoff predications (yikes!). I really was expecting more from Vic Fangio
and the defense. They came around later
in the year, but it took too long to get there.
I thought Flacco would at least be serviceable, and put in a full season’s work. Worse yet, I never
would have guessed Drew Lock would give Denver fans reasons for hope. I’m still not sold, but we’ll give him credit
where credit is due for now.
Kansas City 13-3
Typically a historical
season leads to regression the following year. I think Mahommes will top
what he did last year and hit 57 TD's to claim his catchup prize from Heinz.
Actual: 12-4
One dislocated knee
cap and my Mahommes double down prediction went down the tubes. Not far off based on how they played in the
second half of the year though.
Oakland 7-9 It's hard to make up the storylines that have
unfolded in the preseason. I don't know if we'll ever see Antonio Brown
play for this team, but somehow Jon Gruden will surprise some people this
year. Still, this roster is only half built. I have a hard time
seeing more than 8 wins with this team.
Actual: 7-9
Ha, “I don’t know if
we’ll ever see Antonio Brown play for this team.” How’s that for the understatement of the
year. I think I read this one pretty
well.
L.A. Chargers
7-9
LAC can't catch a
break. It doesn't seem like they ever catch breaks. 2018 actually went fairly
smooth compared to normal which means this year the Chargers will again be back
to stepping on upside down rakes buried in the leaves.. WHAMMMM!!their LT all of
a sudden has blood clot problems..WHAMMMMM!!their RB1 decided he needed more
money than he's worth.
Actual: 5-11
WHAMMM!! Their 38
year-old quarterback played like he’s 38.
It was even worse than I thought it was going to be.
Not bad for the
AFC. Unfortunately, my NFC predictions
didn’t hold up as well…
Chicago 6-10
Okay, 6 wins is a
little harsh here. They are probably a 10 win team that falls short of
their potential for reasons outside their control. Mitch Trubisky is
fine. I'm not sure he'll ever be more than that. The defense is
great, but I just don't think the offense has the horses.
Actual: 8-8
Their defense was less than great and Trubisky
was less than fine. Yet, I still came in
under their actual record.
Detroit 7-9
I have a feeling about
a Stafford resurgence but every time I go to type a 9 in the "W"
column, I remember Matt Patricia is their coach.
Actual: 3-12-1
Not quite as big of a
whiff as it seems. The lions were fairly
frisky early in the year and then Matt Stafford broke his back. The lions were less frisky and then Jeff
Driskell pulled his hamstring. Then it
was David Blough’s turn and the lions were the opposite of frisky.
Green Bay 8-8
They have a fledgling
monster on their hands with their defense. I like what they are
building. This win total is a bet against Matt Lafleur mostly.
"Cram it in your cramhole Lafleur!".. Sorry I can't say that name
without thinking of that quote.
Actual: 13-3
Matt Lafleur crammed
it in MY cramhole. The packers weren’t
as good as their record indicates, but they certainly were better than I gave
them credit.
Minnesota 11-5
Minnesota has
continued to re-sign their core pieces while also adding improvements like
offensive coach Gary Kubiak, and center Garrett Bradbury. Zimmer and the
boys are bound to be a little angry about how 2018 played out. They
bounce back in 2019.
Actual: 10-6
I got close on the
record, but I was a little off on this one.
The Vikings had their moments this year, but in general they came up
short in the big games and the defense under-performed for most of the
year. As you’ll see further down, I had
them as my NFC super bowl representative, but I don’t think that’s
happening.
Atlanta 10-6
I have a soft spot for
teams that dump significant resources into their offensive line. It's
hard to be successful without a stable offense and it's hard to have a stable
offense without a good line.
Actual: 7-9
The falcons looked
like one of the worst teams in the league in the first half of the year. They finished winning 6 of 8 making me think
I didn’t miss quite as bad as it looks, but still.. they aren’t the playoff
team I was looking for.
Carolina 10-6
The bold move
switching to a 3-4 and turning their play-making DT's into 3-4 DE's pays
off. Cam Newton comes back strong.
Actual: 5-11
Wrong and wronger. Their best player on D
missed most of the year and their defensive scheme switch did not pay off. Cam
Newton did not come back strong.
Christian McCaffery was a one-man wrecking crew and all it got them was
5 wins.. Not exactly a ringing endorsement for trying to draft star running
backs. The Panthers might have been the
worst team in the league by the end of the year. This was one of my biggest mistakes.
New Orleans 10-6
The saints slug their
way to a division title, but have enough hiccups to miss out on the first round
bye.
Actual: 13-3
That caption hits the
nail on the head, yet they won three more games than I thought. And
they STILL didn’t get a bye. Tough year
in the NFC.
Tampa Bay 2-14
Something doesn't
smell right about Bruce Arians coming out of retirement to coach the
Buccaneers. I don't think it is going to go well. I have them in
the bottom tier of the league with Washington, right behind Arizona and
Miami.
Actual: 7-9
Big miss here. The Bucs weren’t great, but they were
scrappy. The WR’s lived up to the hype
and Jameis was like supercharged Jameis. Let’s pause for a
moment and marvel at the 2019 Jameis finale as he seized the reigns of infamy
with his final pass of the season throwing a pick-6 in overtime to become the
first quarterback in NFL history to throw 30+ TD’s and 30 picks. Bravo Jameis.
Bravo. They can’t make this stuff
up folks.
Dallas 8-8
A magical season could
be on the horizon for Dallas. Every other day they sign someone to an
extension so I'm not sure how long they can hold the roster together, but for
now they snag a first round bye.
Actual: Oops. I’m on a cold streak here. I think the cowboys died
the slowest death I’ve ever seen this season.
New York Giants 8-8
8-8 doesn't sound
pretty, but considering the Giants have been the punching bag of sports media
for the last 6 months, this feels like a moral victory. Maybe this is
wishful thinking though.. You try sitting on Daniel Jones island alone with
only Dave Gettleman to keep you company. Danny Dimes needs to light up
some D's so that i can have more people to talk to.
Actual: 4-12
Another miss. Danny Dimes played like a rookie. Not the worst rookie ever. His career could go a variety of directions
from here, but he at least did enough to silence some of the draft snob
jeers.
Philadelphia 7-9
Carson Wenz has been
plagued with injuries early in his career. Now Philly doesn't have anyone
behind him proven to be capable of picking up the slack when Wentz goes down.
Actual: 9-7
Strangely Carson Wentz
did not go down, but everyone else did. The
Eagles struggled through most of the season trying to survive successive tidal waves of injuries. Now they’ve made it to the postseason
having dived on Dallas’ fumbled NFC East title and improbably they’ve found little
footing late in the year. Their roster
still resembles a MASH unit, but Wentz has put them on his back and he might
just drag them to a playoff win.
Washington 2-14
The short term
quarterback solution doesn't look pretty, and I'm not a believer in Dwayne
Haskins. This is going to go south quickly.
Actual: 3-13
The Redskins were a
little more competitive than I thought they’d be, but they fired their coach
mid season and went 0-6 in the worst division in the league so I think I’d
still classify this as a disaster.
Arizona 4-12
Everyone's excited to
see what Arizona's offense looks like. Execution will be sloppy out of
the gate.
Actual: 5-10-1
I consider this a
hit. The unveiling of Air-raid in the
NFL was underwhelming, but mid way through the year, they began to move the
needle a little bit. Kyler Murray showed enough to buoy optimism. They have something to build on.
L.A. Rams 9-7
The Super Bowl
hangover affects all teams and leaves no survivors!!.. except the Patriots
Actual: 9-7
DING! I’ll count this one as a win too. The Rams
will be one of the more interesting stories the next few years. People were quick to pat them on the back for
trading for players like Jalen Ramsey and being aggressive with veteran free
agent contracts. Now they’re a mediocre
team with lots of big dollar contracts and not much draft capital.
San Francisco 7-9
They keep dumping
resources into their defensive line and it keeps not moving the needle.
Another mediocre year and the Shanahan/Lynch era looks to be in jeopardy.
Actual: 13-3
Okay, so I’d say this was my biggest miss. The needle finally moved on defense and Kyle
Shanahan established himself in the top-tier of offensive coaches right up
there with Andy Reid and Sean Peyton.
Seattle 9-7
Can their secondary
hold up? How many PRP injections does Bobby Wagner have to get before his body
heals papercuts like wolverine? Can Brian Schottenheimer muster any
semblance of an interesting NFL offense?
Actual: 11-5
Playoff
predictions:
AFC
The broncos D blugeons
quarterbacks all the way to the wild card round where they face a quarterback
fast enough to just outrun them. It's close, but the ravens
triumph.
Houston draws
Pittsburgh and can't handle the power of the AFC North.
The Patriots face
their kryptonite in the divisional round and Baltimore squeaks into the AFC
championship game.
The Chiefs make short
work of the Steelers' swiss cheese secondary setting up a dual between the
league's most dynamic passing and rushing attacks. I'll give Mahommes the
edge against anyone at this point and the Chiefs are on their way to the Super
Bowl.
Actual: The Broncos and Steelers are playoff no shows in real
life. Buffalo is fairly equivalent to
Pittsburgh though. I like the Bills in
Houston and New England rallies for at least one playoff win.
K.C. and Baltimore take
care of business in round 2, and I’ll stick with the chiefs to make it to the
big game in Miami.
NFC
The Seahawks squeak
out the NFC west title, but draw the punishing Carolina d-line in round
1. Panthers cruise in this one.
How about a
Saints/Falcons playoff matchup to stir an already juicy rivalry? The
saints are too much for the falcons on both sides of the ball.
Dallas' o-line is
strong enough to stave off the Panthers. Has Dallas re-signed Dak yet because
the price tag just keeps on going up?
The Minnesota miracle
part 2 shocks the world with a Dalvin Cook punt return for a touchdown as time
expires. New Orleans shrivels in despair after a third straight season
ends on a last second catastrophe.
The Vikings magic
continues as they eek out a defensive struggle 13-10 against an evenly-matched
Cowboys team.
Actual: Can the Vikings orchestrate another miracle
win over the Saints like I predicted? I
don’t think so. The Saints win and get a
shot at the Packers in Lambeau. I’ll
take the Saints again.
On the other side of
the bracket Dallas is notably absent despite my lousy prediction. It doesn’t make sense that Philly can win a
playoff game with the players they are missing, but both teams are banged
up. When in doubt go with the better
quarterback. OOOOOO - I said it.
I don’t know if that’s true, but Wentz seems to be trending up and
Wilson is trending down. I just have a
feeling about this one. Philly is
showing a lot of guts, but they’ll get their clocks cleaned in San Francisco
setting up the Saints vs. 49ers rematch that everyone wants to see. It’s a toss-up, but I’ll say SF edges out NO
again.
SUPER BOWL!
The Chiefs offensive
season of dominance culminates in a 34 point super bowl performance against a
great defense. The Vikings can't keep up.. 34-23
Chiefs vs. 49ers is
a juicy Super Bowl matchup. Like I said,
pick the better QB. I’m sticking with
the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl for what feels like the 17th time
in a row.
