It’s that time of year. Pre-season football has ceased to quench our thirst and everyone is dying for the year to finally start. It is also about the time when sports publications across the country come out with their NFL season previews featuring loads of predictions and roster analysis. I am usually pretty pumped to dig into these articles, but it never fails. Starved for new information, I find myself excitedly rifling through the pages of whatever magazine I’m subscribed to at the time only to find some shmo like Peter King writing about how Tom Brady is good and the Steelers and the Ravens are going to fight it out for the AFC North title. It’s easy to have a good feeling about the teams that looked strong at the end of last year, but c’mon people. The hierarchy within each division throughout the league rarely stays the same year to year. Have some imagination. Yes, it’s hard to go out on a limb when you have thousands of rabid fans from each team foaming at the mouth if you don’t pump up their team. But I don’t have that problem. Here’s my take on how things will play out this season.
AFC North: the King Reigns
1. Pittsburgh:
Fresh off of nit picking NFL writers for being predictable, I am going to go out on a limb and pick the Steelers to win the division. The physical play of their defense has been the division’s signature since, well..forever. They are mean, and they don’t look to be getting any “nicer” any time soon (not with Mike Tomlin around anyway). They are sure to face some injury hurdles, but I expect them to grit out another double digit win season despite the steady stream of tough luck that tends to plague teams the year after a deep playoff run.
Record: 10-6
2. Cincinnati:
Oh man. A few weeks ago, I would have been very tempted to post a big number here. What can I say, a couple of live action, real but not real football games and my optimism has cooled to some extent. The offensive line has shown it has some growing to do, and Reggie Kelley going down hurts. Still, I feel good enough about things to leave them slotted number 2 in the division with a winning record. The defense just might be legit. Jonathan Joseph and Domata Peko look like they might be poised for big things, but they more than anyone else HAVE to stay healthy if this unit is going to step into the top class of the league. On offense, it looks like Cincy will apply significant pressure on opponents through their receivers, and Cedric Benson is solid enough to capitalize on the space that will result. In 2005, it seemed like the Bengals had a date with destiny. They claimed the division with their first winning season in 15 years and the Super Bowl site was none other than Detroit, the location of Cincinnati’s first Super Bowl appearance. One missed block later a Steelers helmet had devastated Palmer’s knee and it all came crashing down. Never fear Bengals fans. Don’t stop, belivin’. Hold on to that feelin’. Where did the Bengals play their second Super Bowl? That’s right. Miami: the site of Super Bowl XLIV. Home of the Ocho. Sounds perfect to me. Okay, so all of my optimism hasn’t died.
Record: 9-7
3. Baltimore:
Baltimore third place in the division with a losing record? With that defense and a stellar young quarterback like Joe Flacco, how on earth could this happen?! Ray Lewis is old. Prior to last year, he was prone to injury. I think this is the year he fades, and the Ravens defense will fade with him. They let his replacement follow their coordinator out the door and the guys they have left have potential but aren’t ready to fill Lewis’ shoes. As for Flacco, c’mon people! Take off the rookie beer goggles. How many times have you heard this off-season how there is extra pressure on this year’s rookie QB’s because of what Matt Ryan and Flacco did last year? Nice accomplishment, but the mistake is assuming improvement. He threw for 2,971 yards, 14 TD’s, 12 INT’s, a 60% completion percentage, and a 22nd best quarterback rating of 80.3. Yeah okay, good job rook but let’s not get carried away. There’s no guarantee he makes huge strides in year two. Just ask former rookie of the year, Vince Young.
Record: 6-10
4. Cleveland:
The quarterback duel is grabbing headlines. Otherwise, things seem pretty quiet. The reign of Eric Mangini has officially begun. Cleveland appears to be building their team the right way: add role players across the whole roster and let elite players emerge. Depth added through the draft and free agency should restore the offensive line as one of the team’s strengths, and I expect Braylon Edwards to bounce back. The defense should be better under Rob Ryan, but I’m not sure we’ll know who’s going to start at QB until the offense breaks the huddle in their first possession of week 1. That’s not good.
Record: 5-11
AFC South: Time Capsule
1. Indianapolis:
This division should be brutal. Top to bottom, I think it’s the best in the league. I like the Colts to reclaim AFC South supremacy. There have been rumblings about difficulty transitioning to the new coaching staff, but you kind of get the feeling that Peyton Manning is due for a statistical explosion.
Record: 11-5
2. Jacksonville:
The Jaguars nipping at the heels of Indy for the division title? It’s almost like a 4-year flashback. This is a bit of a long shot, but I think offensive line injuries were the key to Jacksonville dropping to the back of the pack a year ago. They appear to once again be healthy and they added veteran Tre Thomas and high draft picks Eben Britton and Eugene Monroe just in case they aren’t. Improved protection along with the addition of veteran leader Torry Holt should help QB David Garrard rebound from an off year. The defense desperately needs a young player in the front seven to emerge. Quentin Groves, Derrick Harvey, and Justin Durrant are all good candidates.
Record: 9-7
3. Houston:
This is the year Matt Schaub finally makes it through the whole season! He’d better. Rex Grossman and Dan Orlovsky are the alternatives. With a healthy Schaub, you’d expect a better record. All of the pieces appear to be in place for an explosive offense, and their defensive front 7 looks pretty outstanding on paper. However, they spent significant draft and free agency resources to continue to upgrade up front while their secondary is less talented than some college teams. Disgruntled star CB Dunta Robinson deciding to finally sign his franchise tender provides a boost, but how much can you expect from a guy that clearly would have preferred to leave through free-agency? Maybe they’ll hold off a rebounding Jacksonville team and manage to notch 9 or 10 wins, but I think they’ll have to wait one more year for the franchise’s first playoff berth.
Record: 8-8
4. Tennessee:
Surprisingly, it’s first to worst for the Titans. Haynesworth wasn’t worth the $100 million it would have taken to keep him, but he made everyone on their defense better. Their offense proved towards the end of the year that it’s not the same without Chris Johnson. I don’t expect the mini RB to make it through the whole season and a svelte Lendale White along with WR additions Nate Washington and Kenny Britt aren’t enough to save the Titan-ic. Everyone seems to be way too comfortable with Kerry Collins as the starting QB. I’m not sure he’s going to hold it together for another full year and things aren’t exactly going to be all roses and cream puffs when Vince Young takes over.
Record: 8-8
AFC East: Patriot Training Grounds
1. New England:
Tom Brady is back and so are the Patriots. How many teams could lose their star quarterback in week 1, start a guy who hasn’t played legitimately since high school, and barely miss the playoffs? The big thing to take away from 2008 for New England was that without the protection of a juggernaut offense the Patriot defense showed plenty of cracks. The key to whether or not they return to the Super Bowl is if they have retooled enough. Critics felt they put too many resources into rebuilding the secondary, and they failed to plug holes in the linebacking corps. However, one of the moves that flew under the radar a bit was the post-draft trade for Oakland’s Derrick Burgess. Burgess is exactly the kind of player that always goes stale with one team and joins the Patriots for rejuvenation.
Record: 12-4
2. New England Prep Squad #1 (NYJ):
The top team in the division diligently helping prepare the Patriots for playoff time: The New York Jets. Get ready to meet the NFL media’s new poster boy for over-glorification. Rookie Mark Sanchez has won the starting quarterback job, and there seems to be enough of a supporting cast in place for him to kick off his career with a winning record. Don’t count on a playoff appearance though. I’m not sure their defense will be quite as strong as some are predicting, and Rex Ryan isn’t the right man for the head-coaching job.
Record: 9-7
3. New England Prep Squad #2 (Buffalo):
The 2009 Bills look like they might be an upstart team that will surprise opponents with stingy defense and streaky offense. Their pass rush was non-existent last season, but the defensive line appears healthy once again and has added some fire power in first round draft pick Aaron Maybin. Offensively, the trick will be whether they can keep the peace on the T.O. front until RB Marshawn Lynch comes back from suspension in week 4 to provide them with one more explosive weapon.
Record: 7-9
4. New England Prep Squad #3 (Miami):
The Dolphins should provide a nice look at the Wild Cat so the Pats will be ready for any kind of offense they might see in January. Most people are citing a huge up-tick in schedule difficulty as the cause of Miami’s ’09 demise, but I think it’ll have more to do with a backslide on defense. Jason Ferguson up front is getting up there in age along with OLB’s Jason Taylor and Joey Porter. Can youngsters like LB Channing Crowder, safety Jason Allen, and CFL sack-master, Cameron Wake, make up for the potential decline of their top playmakers?
Record: 6-10
AFC West: Future Stomping Grounds of Sam Bradford
1. San Diego:
For what seems like the tenth season in a row, the Chargers are being touted as the so called “most talented roster in the league” with a great chance at challenging for AFC supremacy. It might be LT’s last shot at a title and they will probably win the division by default, but I don’t see them making the Super Bowl. While they are still good on both sides of the ball, their underrated offensive and defensive lines have taken hits due to age and free-agency.
Record: 9-7
2. Oakland:
Don’t be fooled by the locker room scuffles amongst the coaching staff and the preseason blowout losses. The Raiders are going to bring it in 2009… or something like that. Can JaMarcus Russell step up and actually start earning his paycheck? If not, maybe Jeff Garcia has one more year left in the tank… No wait, they cut him. Maybe Charlie Frye can work some magic. Can Darren McFadden stay healthy enough to put some of that disgusting talent to use? If not, Justin Fargas and Michael Bush are solid enough to be productive. The defense needs an overhaul up front but I think the young guns on O will man up enough to post an Even Steven in the win / loss columns.
Record: 8-8
3. Kansas City:
Reports out of K.C. have savior Matt Cassel struggling a bit throughout preseason. Maybe it’s just for show as new Coach Todd Haley has used similar “motivational” theatrics elsewhere on the team demoting top receiver Dwayne Bowe to 3rd string. Then again, the guy fired his offensive coordinator two weeks before the start of the season so maybe he is actually crazy. Either way, his offensive line still isn’t rebuilt. The Cassel injury opens the door for Tyler Thigpen and allows everyone to avoid a little bit of embarrassment in case they truly weren’t happy with how Cassel was showing.
Record: 7-9
4. Denver:
Talk about a crappy off-season. Denver had to totally collapse to miss the playoffs last year. Since then, they’ve gone from having one of the most experienced coaches in the league to being led by a 33 year-old rookie. They switched to a 3-4 defense that will require at least another year or two of personnel adjustments to acclimate to. Their star QB cried his way out of town. Their top receiver is trying to do the same. Even the Broncos faithful are starting to chatter about the possibility of nabbing Sam Bradford or the anit-Cutler, Colt McCoy, with the top pick in the 2010 draft. Don’t hang your heads too low Denver fans. The foundation is already laid for a quick return to prominence. Outside of nose tackle and QB, there is a young star or future star in place at just about every position. With Alphonso Smith at DB, D.J. Williams at ILB, Elvis Dumervil at OLB, Robert Ayers at DE, Knowshon Moreno at RB, Eddie Royal at WR, and Ryan Clady on the OL, 2009 might look like a confused mess but the outlook on the next three to five years actually doesn’t look too bad.
Record: 4-12
Brett Favre: NFC North
1. Green Bay:
Does the preseason really matter? If so, the Packers are going to put a hurtin on some teams this year. Brett who? This year is setting up to be endlessly gratifying for QB Aaron Rodgers. He has a strong opportunity to prove once and for all that the Packers made the right move ditching #4 to give him his shot while going head to head with the man himself. On top of that, if Rodgers torches the league for the statistical dream season he looks to be primed for he will have the last laugh over every franchise that passed on him. He and Alex Smith were top prospects in the 2005 draft. Smith went number 1 overall, but the whole league picked apart Rodgers’ mechanics and he tumbled all the way to the 24th pick. Meanwhile Smith looks to have fallen short in his last opportunity to claim the 49ers starting QB job. Rodgers will have plenty of help. Green Bay has quietly built one of the best groups of receivers in the league and RB Ryan Grant looks ready to bounce back from an under whelming 2008 season. On the other side of the ball the defense has shown some punch, hinting they might be one of the rare teams to excel in their first year trying to run a 3-4.
Record: 10-6
2. Minnesota:
Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre, Brett Favre. Brett Favre. The Vikes finally played the card up their sleeve. It’s funny, now that it finally happened some of the doubters are starting to come to the forefront. Brett Favre, Brett Favre. There are some poor suckers still clinging to the Brett Favre makes the Vikings a Super Bowl contender theory, but there is also a healthy contingent forecasting disaster. Personally, I think Minnesota will win more games with Brett Favre at the helm than either Sage Rosenfels or Tarvaris Jackson. However like I said before, Brett Favre is not capable of winning three games in a row against playoff caliber teams. That ship has sailed. Can Jackson or Rosenfels? Probably not. But there is a snowball’s chance in Miami that one of those two could suddenly blossom into a championship quarterback. Brett Favre? Not so much. Some would argue the balance of the Vikings’ roster looks strong enough to carry the team to a title even with average quarterback play. On paper? Maybe. In reality, I don’t think so. Brett Favre.
Record: 9-7
3. Chicago:
The top story in Chicago has centered around the arrival of Jay Cutler and whether or not he has enough weapons to make a difference for the Bears. They could use a big play receiver, but I think the guys they have in combination with increased production out of TE Greg Olsen will be enough to keep from holding them back. Second year RB Matt Forte should be the focus of the offense anyway. The bigger concern is whether the defense can return to prominence. It seems like Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs, Nathan Vasher, and Charles Tillman should all be getting awarded rocking chairs for their 30 years of service with the franchise.
Record: 7-9
Detroit:
How far will the Lions climb out of their hole in year one of life after 0-16? Given the pieces that are already in place, I think they will progress further than some are giving credit. Calvin Johnson is simply an amazing athlete. Having already posted elite WR numbers in year two at one of the hardest positions to transition to from college, Johnson could soon threaten top player in the league status. Kevin Smith looks like an above average RB and the O-line isn’t as bad as some people seem to think. I still am of the opinion they made the wrong move picking Matthew Stafford, but at least they have a direction at QB. The Lions would be crazy to start Dante Culpepper for anything less than a year, but they’ve seemed indecisive about the decision and Culpepper’s recent foot injury has thrown things up in the air. The defense needs a little more work, but there is hope. LB Ernie Sims is above average, and Julian Peterson and Larry Foote are steady veterans with another year or two left in their tanks. I’m excited to see what kind of impact they get from rookie safety Louis Delmas. The roster is moving in a positive direction and the division isn’t as strong as analysts are making it out to be. The result should be a whopping six wins.
Record: 6-10
NFC South: One steps up, two step back
1. New Orleans:
The New Orleans Saints: Super Bowl contender. It has been a trendy opinion the past couple of seasons. This year it might actually be true. The offense doesn’t show any signs of slowing down, but the key will be whether the defense can step up. The Achilles heel has been their secondary. They have tried and tried to paste together an effective group of DB’s but have failed miserably. Of all the attempts though, this might be the best. Second year man Tracy Porter has showed promise and free agent Jabari Greer starting across from him is an upgrade. To back them up, rookie Malcolm Jenkins is a little underrated right now and free agent signee Randal Gay is decent coming off the bench. The biggest upgrade however might be Darren Sharper at safety. If he has anything left, he might be the veteran needed to finally make things work. If not, it could get messy. Trying to restore his reputation after having once been considered one of the best in the business, new defensive coordinator Greg Williams is implementing a more aggressive defense. I think the kind of fire Williams will bring is what the Saints need to push them over the top. Drew Brees, see you in Miami.
Record: 12-4
2. Atlanta:
Matty Ice is all the rage in Hot-lanta and the Falcons have become the up-and-coming sleeper team in a lot of eyes. However, much like in New Orleans, it’s not going to be that smooth. At first glance the defense looks most likely to hold them back. They have young players like Chris Houston and Chevis Jackson on the corners, Jamaal Anderson on the edge, Peria Jerry in the middle, and William Moore at safety. I like the unit being built by head coach Mike Smith, but they need some linebackers to go with Curtis Lofton and a couple of years to develop. It will just be a matter of whether they blossom in time to catch the tail end of star pass rusher John Abrham’s career. The defense is raw, but the offense will take its lumps too. For a rookie, Matt Ryan’s numbers were good last year, but, again, projecting steady improvements for young quarterbacks is dangerous. Interesting stat from ESPN the Magazine: in weeks 11 through 17 last year, Matt Ryan was outperformed by JaMarcus Russell in terms of quarterback rating. I’m not ready to declare Ryan a top ten quarterback yet. Tony Gonzalez has peaked. Michael Turner has looked great in the preseason but can he stay healthy? These guys are going to have an up and down season. Look for them to make waves if the league is still standing in 2011.
Record: 9-7
3. Carolina:
It isn’t hard to foresee a drop-off in the Panthers’ play considering the last time we saw them, Jake Delhomme was self destructing against Arizona in the playoffs. On top of that, the Panthers are a cyclical team. In fact, the franchise has never had back to back winning seasons. Steve Smith is a beast with another big year left in him and DeAngelo Williams is a stud. They just don’t have enough help right now. The defense was thin up front before losing starting DT Maake Kemoeatu. Now they’re in trouble. Julius Peppers wants out, but says he’s professional enough to keep it from affecting his play. That sounds great until things start to go south.
Record: 6-10
4. Tampa Bay:
It’s full-fledged rebuilding mode in Tampa. They hired a 33 year-old coach and decided they had to cut loose everyone older than Raheem Morris. Ronde Barber was about the only one to survive the slaughter. I like the vibe Morris has created with his team. They exude a real sense of camaraderie. Instead of the old general leading his troops, they have more of a brothers-in-arms feel. They will overachieve, but there’s just not enough talent to get it done this year.
Record: 4-12
NFC East: Great in the Regular Season, Regular in the Playoffs
1. Philadelphia:
Get ready for the greatest show on turf part deux. If the O-line stays healthy, this offense has a chance to be special. I just hope Andy Reid doesn’t mess it up trying to get cute using Michael Vick. I think they come out of the gate quick and come down to earth towards the end of the year. The defense is good, but they lost Brian Dawkins to free-agency. They lost defensive coordinator Jim Johnson to cancer. They lost MLB Stewart Bradley to injury. With losing that much leadership, they’ll have trouble sustaining a high level of play the whole season. In the end, the Eagles edge out the Giants for the NFC East title, but run out of gas in the playoffs.
Record: 11-4-1 (more on that later)
2. N.Y. Giants:
How about Eli the $100 million man? Manning is good but not great. Quarterbacks are hard to find, so the Giants felt they had to extend him and overpaid. Meanwhile, they single handedly raised the price tag of every QB in the league. Either that or they actually still think Manning is an upper echelon QB. We should find out this year. The offense is on his back. Their receiving corps is Eagles-esque: some talent with no elite playmakers. The O-line is still solid and Brandon Jacobs is a horse, but in the end it all boils down to Eli. The offense may run hot and cold, but their D should get them into the playoffs. The defensive line ran out of gas in ’08, but they’ve added enough firepower in the off-season to avoid the same fate this year.
Record: 11-5
3. Dallas:
Prevailing opinion on the Boys seems to be they aren’t all that different from last year. Consequently, their record won’t be all that different from last year. Roy Williams will be better than people are giving credit, but the guy that picks up the T.O. slack has to be their most explosive player: Felix Jones. Their defense might not have all the pieces they need to be dominant, but they have enough to go along with pass rush terror DeMarcus Ware to be adequate. They finish third in the division, but they’re the fourth best team in the conference and manage to snag the second wild card slot.
Record: 9-7
4. Washington
Once again, owner Daniel Snyder couldn’t contain himself in the off-season. It’s still not going to work. They’ve put an awful lot of eggs in the enormous basket of a big man. He’d better stay healthy. They’re not a bad team. In most divisions, they’d challenge for a playoff spot. The tie listed in the Eagles record above comes against the Redskins in week 12. Crafty coach Jim Zorn’s crafty offense will inch its way up the field in the OT. With 12 seconds to go, they run a draw to Rock Cartwright. Despite the Redskins having one time out left, the clock expires. Zorn struts off the field, arms thrust in the air like he just nailed the gold-medal-winning vault on a bum ankle at the Olympics, and Daniel Snyder’s head explodes. Meanwhile, Donovan McNabb trots out onto the field for the coin toss of the second OT.
Record: 4-11-1
NFC West: Almost Irrelevant
1. Seattle:
Feels like a bounce back year for the Hawks. The roster has quality, and it will take at least a year for new coach Jim Mora to mess it up. I like rookie Aaron Curry and veteran Cory Redding to rejuvenate the D. The offense isn’t going to blow any doors off, but they’ll win games. The offensive line might be trouble.
Record: 10-6
2. San Francisco:
I don’t know how the 49ers are going to do it. Some how, some way, Mike Singletary will figure it out. I’m kind of scared to see what happens if they don’t.
Record: 9-7
3. Arizona:
Kurt Warner had off-season hip surgery (and I thought he couldn’t seem any older).
The Super Bowl loser always drops down a notch after a failed championship run. Their defensive coordinator is gone and their offensive coordinator got poached. I think Chris Wells is the real deal, but the offense won’t quite chug like it once did with Matt Leinart at the helm and a gimpy Anquan Boldin.
Record: 7-9
4. St. Louis:
Steve Spagnuolo will get the boys scrappin’ but it’ll be a couple of years before we really know what he can do. The offensive line isn’t rebuilt yet, and the defense still doesn’t have any teeth. Pick LB, OT/G, WR (in that order) in the next draft and things might get interesting pretty quick.
Record: 3-13
It is a delicate balance between the extremes of making predictions that are obvious and boring and ones that are so outlandish they’re not even worth reading. I’m not sure I was bold enough, but things like the AFC division winners being Pit, Indy, N.E., and San Diego are hard to get away from. My projected win and loss totals should add up to the right numbers although I have no idea if the combinations listed are possible. For the record, I’m going with New England over New Orleans in the Super Bowl.
