Tuesday, April 26, 2016

2016 NFL Final Mock Draft

It's go time!  Once again, I'm sneaking in under the deadline here.  The predraft trades have taken some of the suspense out of the top ten, but there should still be plenty of excitement.  Here's my take on how Thursday night will unfold.



1. Los Angeles
The Pick: Jared Goff QB California


2. Philadelphia
The Pick: Carson Wentz QB North Dakota State



Not one but two teams paid healthy ransoms for the opportunity to select this year's top two quarterbacks.  As news of the trades broke, opinions quickly polarized into two sides.


    a. There's no price too high for a franchise quarterback.  If they think they found their guy, they're right to pay whatever it takes.
    b. These guys aren't worth top 10 picks. They paid too much.



Both sides are right and both sides are wrong.  The price of 37 first round picks is too high.  One seventh round pick is too low.  There is a line somewhere in between that is just right. On the other hand, quarterback is the one position where teams need to evaluate the players, decide which one they want, and then go after them.  You can try to be patient and let the draft come to you, but more than likely if you aren't aggressive, you will miss out.



Side b. thinks Goff and Wentz aren't worth top 10 picks, let alone worth mortgaging significant draft resources to trade up to take them in the top 10.  To me, the evaluation part of this is a separate discussion.  It is a hard process.  Teams get it wrong every year. Professional analysts get it wrong every year.  Amateurs like myself get it wrong every year.  It isn't hard to find opposing opinions from analysts that you trust on just about every prospect. I'm not going to sit here and say that they are right or wrong for liking these quarterbacks.  That said, consensus seems to be that neither of these players are plug and play starters.  If that's true, I have reservations whether the Rams and Eagles will be able to surround their QB's with enough talent for them to succeed.  Time will tell.


3. San Diego
Current buzz has the Chargers taking DeForest Buckner.  Maybe they're just trying to trigger trade offers from teams in love with Buckner, but if they actually go through with it I think they're making a mistake.  O-line injuries sank their last two seasons.  Sorry, "we just re-signed King Dunlap" isn't a good enough reason to pass on the best OT prospect in years.
The Pick: Laremy Tunsil OT Mississippi



4. Dallas
Neither Myles Jack nor Jalen Ramsey is allowed to fall to the Ravens.  I forbid it!  I would have paid to see what Dallas would have done if a quarterback was still on the board here, but L.A. and Philly had to go get overzealous and now we'll never know.  Negative news is swirling about Jack's knee.  I don't think he falls.
The Pick: Myles Jack, LB UCLA



5. Jacksonville
It seems like the Jaguars have been trying to find a pass rusher for a decade, but all of their draft picks and free agent signings have either gotten injured or have been busts.  Better take the DB here Gus.
The Pick: Jalen Ramsey, DB Florida State



6. Baltimore
Baltimore's D-line just keeps getting bigger and meaner.
The Pick: DeForest Buckner DE Oregon



7.  San Francisco
San Francisco takes a look and decides to trade down when Miami calls.  Miami has been trying for months to add a decent running back.  Now they have their man.
The Pick: Ezekiel Elliot, RB Ohio State



8. Cleveland
I think Cleveland is going to trade down again, but I don't have a strong feeling on the trade partner.  The hottest name on the draft board right now is Georgia OLB Leonard Floyd.  Floyd oozes explosive athleticism on the field, but he is rail thin and from what I saw he has a ways to go before he realizes his potential.  Regardless, NFL teams are drooling over the way Floyd effortlessly darts around the field.  The New Orleans Saints are the lucky winners here.
The Pick: Leonard Floyd OLB Georgia



9. Tampa Bay
Speaking of lucky winners, the Buccaneers stumble into one of the best pass rushers in the class.
The Pick: Joey Bosa DE Ohio State



10. New York Giants
The Giants are reportedly hoping for Floyd, but they settle for an OT that will tie all the pieces of their O-line together.  Jack Conklin is a grinder that should be able to hold down LT and allow the rest of the unit to slide into more natural roles at right tackle and guard.
The Pick: Jack Conklin OT Michigan State



11. Chicago
The Bears are in the market for a pass rusher.  Instead of reaching for a DE, they opt for a penetrating DT that wreaks havoc on the interior.
The Pick: Sheldon Rankins DT Louisville



12. New Orleans
In this scenario, Cleveland moves into this slot.  They are reportedly interested in Paxton Lynch, but before they think QB of the future, they decide to solidify their O-line first.  Luckily for them, Ronnie Stanley has fallen right into their lap.
The Pick: Ronnie Stanley OT Notre Dame



13. Miami
Another traded pick.  This time it's San Francisco on the clock.  Vernon Hargreaves is supposedly tumbling down the draft board into the 20 to 25 range.  I think he falls out of the top 10, but corner needy San Francisco ends his slide.
The Pick: Vernon Hargreaves CB Florida



14. Oakland
Oakland ponders dipping into the deep DT class, but can't resist bolstering their linebacking corps.  Reggie Ragland should stabilize the middle of the field.  There will be big bodies up front to select later.
The Pick: Reggie Ragland LB Alabama



15. Tennessee
The Titans are finally on the clock after trading away the number 1 pick.  They could go a variety of directions here.  D-line makes sense, but there isn't a lot of value here that fits their scheme.  William Jackson has been steadily climbing up the draft board.  Cornerback gets the nod.
The Pick: William Jackson III CB Houston



16. Detroit
Once a strength, free agency has depleted the Lions' D-line.  Most are higher on Shaq Lawson than I am.  He makes a lot of plays, but he doesn't seem to have blistering speed or raw strength and he falls down a lot.  I'm not sure he's not just a really good college player. Still, a lot of analysts will consider this great value.
The Pick:  Shaq Lawson DE Clemson



17. Atlanta
I did a little research on Lawson's running mate, Kevin Dodd.  I actually ended up liking him better than Lawson.  Dodd needs to develop a wider variety of pass rush moves, but he just looks to me like he's a little more heavy-handed than Lawson.  He has more pop.  If they're not careful, Atlanta may someday approach Jaguar-level neediness at defensive end.
The Pick: Kevin Dodd DE Clemson



18. Indianapolis
The Colts need to protect Andrew Luck.  I don't care if they spend all of their picks on o-line. Even if they have to cut a few of them, it would be worth it.
The Pick: Taylor Decker OT Ohio St.



19. Buffalo
Rex Ryan never really had a blistering outside linebacker in New York.  He decides to take a crack at it here. The draft process has been a roller coaster ride for Noah Spence.  The Bills gamble on the character risk.
The Pick: Noah Spence OLB Eastern Kentucky



20. New York Jets
There isn't a good O-line fit for the Jets here so they decide to pump some athleticism into their front seven.
The Pick: Darron Lee LB Ohio St.



21. Washington
If you are a Bengals fan drooling that no receivers are off the board yet, the run starts here.  Corey Coleman is electric.  The Redskins need a backup plan for some juice in their offense if DeSean Jackson can't stay healthy.  Consider Coleman an adequate backup generator.
The Pick: Corey Coleman WR Baylor



22. Houston
Like the Bengals, the Texans don't have much more than stop gaps in place opposite their star wide receiver.  They decide to go with greasy fast speed in a class that is a little light on that commodity.
The Pick: Will Fuller WR Notre Dame



23. Minnesota
The run continues.  The Vikings need to keep funneling talent around Teddy Bridgewater.  Josh Doctson will make for a nice security blanket.
The Pick: Josh Doctson WR TCU



24. CINCINNATI!!!
Without further ado, I'll introduce you to the Bengals new WR2: Laquon "Lawman" Treadwell!
As a testament to how wide open this first round is going to be, I'm not sure whether to defend this pick as a stretch that Treadwell will fall this far or a reach that Cincy should wait on WR and draft defense.  Beware, if he's the guy you're really hoping for, he comes in play from about pick 10 on.  I came close to mocking him elsewhere several times (particularly to Cleveland in their trade-down scenario), but in the end the combination of Treadwell's lack of enticing measureables and the lack of WR-needy teams in the middle of the round leads him to slide right down the draft board into a smiling Marvin Lewis's lap.



Treadwell is a beast.  Sure, he ran a slow 40 time, but he gets open with rout running, physicality, and body control.  He will be a red zone threat.  He will thrive on intermediate targets.  He will block tenaciously.  He fits right into the wheelhouse of this offense.

A.J. Green is quick and agile with speed when he needs it: the Jungle Cat.
Tyler Eifert is a movable chess piece that can go any direction at any time: The Queen    
Free-agency hit the WR corps hard, but with the Lawman, the Queen, and the Cat on the prowl, I expect that everything will be okay.



Since I've officially talked this potential outcome up too much, let's talk some alternatives.  This WR class doesn't have a lot of WR1 prospects, but luckily for Cincy it has WR2 prospects stashed in just about every round.  If Doctson or Coleman slip to 24 instead of Treadwell, I'd endorse either one.  Who better to take over for Marvin Jones than the player I've seen comped as a very rich-man's Marvin Jones,  Doctson.  Coleman has big-play ability, but he's more versatile than someone like Will Fuller.  Sterling Sheperd, Leonte Carroo, Tyler Boyd, Daniel Braverman, Michael Thomas; these guys would all make fine targets in later rounds.



If they opt for defense they might be taking another corner, especially if Hargreaves drops as much as is being advertised.  Eli Apple, Mackensie Alexander, and Artie Burns are other corners that might be in their range.  At DL, both Alabama DT's are available in this mock.  Robert Nkemdiche is a wild card.  Chris Jones has a lot of buzz. Vernon Butler and Andrew Billings are big, strong interior guys that could contribute. Sadly, it looks like the odds of a Jaylon Smith full recovery are long enough that the Notre Dame linebacker could fal into day 3. At DE I would be disappointed with Emmanuel Ogbah, but he is a player I could see them taking.  Let's not think about that though.  Just cross your fingers and keep dreaming about the Lawman.
The Pick: Laquon Treadwell WR Mississippi



25. Pittsburgh
The Steelers have last year's second round pick, CB Senquez Golson, coming back after missing all of last year, and they continue to bolster their secondary here with Eli Apple.  Big athletic corners don't grow on trees.
The Pick; Eli Apple CB Ohio St.



26. Seattle
Chris Jones has size and strength, but he can penetrate and disrupt as well.  Seattle will gladly start a DT run.
The Pick: Chris Jones DT Mississippi St.



27. Green Bay
The packers need some beef up front.  Luckily that isn't hard to find in this class.
The Pick: Jarran Reed DT Alabama



28. Kansas City
A'Shawn Robinson will fit in nicely as a 3-4 DE and he has future potential as a pass rusher.
The Pick: A'Shawn Robinson DT Alabama



29. Arizona
Outside pass rushers are a little bit thin in this class.  The Cardinals pick up one of the last few worthy of consideration in round 1.
The Pick: Kamalei Correa OLB Boise State



30. Carolina
If the Panthers want to replace the swag of Josh Norman, look no farther than Mackensie Alexander.
The Pick: Mackensie Alexander CB Clemson



31. Denver
The Broncos begin to rebuild their offensive line with a versatile player that can be slotted into just about any spot.
The Pick: Cody Whitehair OG Kansas St.


 









 

Thursday, April 7, 2016

Bengals Big Board: 2016 Bengals Draft Needs

It's draft month.  What do the Bengals need?  Who should they take in the first round?  Here are some names to watch out for at pick 24 at the end of the month.  But first, let's narrow down the list a little.


The Top Ten:
1. Tennessee: Laremy Tunsil OT Ole' Miss.
Usually analysts are hesitant to compare prospects to star players.  When they do, they qualify it with all kinds of disclaimers like they are a commercial for blood pressure medicine.  I heard an interview with Lance Zierlein, a pretty solid draft analyst specifically known for his chops evaluating offensive line talent, where he almost casually referred to Tunsil in the same sentence with Walter Jones (yes, the hall of famer).  There are other players good enough for Tennessee to consider, but taking Tunsil on the heels of Mariota is too juicy to pass up.  I don't care if they've already invested resources at the position
  

2. Cleveland: Carson Wentz, QB North Dakota State
Cleveland should take a quarterback.  There's some chatter building that they won't at #2.  Denver wins a Super Bowl with Zombie Peyton Manning going three and out 17 straight times (that number is only slightly exaggerated) and people get disillusioned enough to think they can get cute at QB.  Take a DB?  Take a DE? Find your quarterback later?  Beware Cleveland.  It will only add to your legend.
  

3. San Diego: Jalen Ramsey, DB Florida State
Offensive line would be nice, but there's more value at defense.  Ramsey has been heralded as the best corner and the best safety in the draft.  Some mock him to Tennessee.  3 to 5 is more likely.
  

4. Dallas: Joey Bosa, DE Ohio State
Jared Allen Retires.  Joey Bosa enters the league.  It feels like the universe is in balance.  Bosa is a two-way defender technically sound enough to contribute against the run and the pass as a rookie.  Just imagine what Rod Marinelli will do with him.

5. Jacksonville: Myles Jack, LB UCLA
Drafting a non-pass rushing linebacker early has become a faux pas.  Yet, the direction the league has gone, defense is now a match-up game as much as anything. The value of elite coverage linebackers is quickly approaching that of rushers.  Elite almost doesn't describe Jack's coverage talent.  Famously, when UCLA played USC in 2014, Jack lined up against Nelson Agholor on more than a few snaps in cover 0 (one on one with no safety help).  Agholor didn't have a catch.
  

6. Baltimore: Ronnie Stanley, OT Notre Dame
I haven't heard Stanley compared to any HOF'ers, but rumor has it some teams like him as much as Tunsil.


7. San Francisco: Jared Goff QB California
49ers snag their QB of the future who played his college ball closer to San Francisco than the 49ers do.
  

8. Philadelphia: Vernon Hargreaves CB Florida
I love the move by Philly to trade up from 13 to 8. Consensus has a dropoff in talent after the top 9 or 10 players and they didn't give up much to do it. Hargreaves looked like an elite talent in 2014.  Analysts downgraded his 2015 performance slightly, but he's still a worthy pick here.


9. Tampa Bay: DeForest Buckner DE Oregon
Another 6'7" 290 lb. DE from Oregon.  I can't get Arik Armstead out of my head from last year, but according to most, Buckner is closer to Leonard Williams than Armstead.



10. New York Giants: Jack Conklin OT Michigan State
The Giants have clusterbombed their defensive line need in free agency.  Given their track record that doesn't mean they won't go DL here, but I don't think the value fits.  They have a host of other needs. O-line makes the most sense.

Bengals Big Board: Best of the Rest
Okay, wipe those top ten off the board.  I'm reasonably sure they will all be gone before pick 24.  Throw in Ezekiel Elliot.  He should be gone too.

Beyond that, opinions on remaining players are all over the place.  Obviously they won't all be available at Cincy's pick, but any of them could be.  Here's how I'd rank the next 13 best options for the Bengals.  By my count, they should have a shot at one of these guys.

1. Laquon Treadwell WR Ole' Miss.
2. Josh Doctson WR TCU
Or as autocorrect put it when I typed this up: Lawman Treadwell and Josh Diction.  Doctson isn't quite the precise technican you'd expect in someone named Diction, but Lawman seems to be about the perfect nickname for Treadwell.  Everybody wants a blazing speed receiver, but I prefer these two guys first.  Scouring for fast guys to attack defenses is almost cliche.  Think about Andy Dalton's skill set.  What is more valuable in this offense, someone who can beat a defender 50 yards down the field, or a player that specializes at intermediate routes and making contested catches?  Both of these guys find ways to get open and can go deep on a more limited basis when needed.  Both are great at attacking the ball in the air and either might actually upgade the red zone offense immediately.  Do these two have enough speed to get open in the pros?  Doctson posted adequate numbers at the combine running a 4.5 40 and finishing near the top of the position group in most other tests.  Treadwell finally ran at his pro-day and ran a 4.65 40.  It is a testament to his skill level that despite the slow time, most analysts are still stumping for him to get selected in the top 20.  Both players will be fine.  Treadwell is more polished and his body is more NFL-ready. Doctson feels like a better fit to develop into Robin to Batman A.J. Green. 

3. Corey Coleman WR Baylor
Small, speedy receiver that makes big plays.  His college offense didn't ask him to run many routes, but he should be able to contribute early on shear athleticism in the short and long passing game. 

4. A'Shawn Robinson DT Alabama
Some think Robinson is purely a two-down defender and fringe first rounder.  Others see him as a plus run defender with pass rushing upside sloted in the 10 to 20 range.  If someone like New Orleans takes him, I think they'll be disappointed.  Stick him between Geno Atkins and Michael Johnson and I think maybe you have a difference maker on defense.  The idea is to upgrade the Peko spot on the D-line with someone more athletic that can still defend the run.  Year one they'll be ok.  Year two they have a chance to morph into something special.

5. Darron Lee LB Ohio State
Playmaking LB with unbelievable athleticism. He probably has to play weak side, which means they'd have to move Burfict to the middle.  They've resisted doing that, but increased athleticism on the second level of the defense is sorely needed.  This would be one way to do it. 

6.  Reggie Ragland LB Alabama
Stout MLB with size that flys to the ball.  Coverage skills are a question mark.   Think rich man's Rey Maualuga.  Does Alambama's D-line mask any of Ragland's flaws? 

7.  Robert Nkemdiche DT Ole' Miss.
Classic top-ten talent with no shortage of character concerns.  He will struggle if he's asked to shoulder too much, but surrounded by a talented d-line I think he'll thrive.  It sounds like the off-the-field red flags might even push him into the second round.

8. Jarran Reed DT Alabama
Big stout DT that excels vs. the run, but hasn't really been asked to penetrate.  Another Alabama front seven player.  It always makes me queasy to see so many guys ranked high from the same team playing positions in such a close proximity to each other.  Going against inferior college talent do they make each other look better than they actually are?  The Bengals run defense is a little streaky.  I wouldn't mind upgrading the Peko slot on the starting line and plugging in a space eater to free up everyone else.

9. Andrew Billngs DT Baylor
10. Vernon Butler DT Louisiana Tech
The parade of DT's continues.  There is a line somewhere where the best DT available doesn't have enough immediate upgrade potential to warrant selecting them in the first round.  I'm not sure the line where they'd wait on DT isn't going to be drawn at Reed in which case these two would slide down this list a little. Not to mention, if they pass on DT at 24, there are three or four more that wouldn't be a major dropoff waiting to get selected in round 2.  There will be a run on the position before the Bengals' second round pick, but somebody should be left. 

11. Shaq Lawson DE Clemson
Best 4-3 DE in this class not named Bosa.  Some prefer his teammate, Kevin Dodd.  I have to look a little closer but Dodd seems to try to sprint around the edge on every play.  Lawson has a little more variety to his moves.  DE isn't the biggest need but if they think they can get a future starter at one of the premier positions in the league, it is worth the investment.

12. Eli Apple CB Ohio State
Corner with size who showed great athleticism at the combine.  It feels like the Bengals funnel endless resources this direction but depending how good they feel about Dre Kirkpatrick it might be necessary.


13. Will Fuller WR Notre Dame
Another short fast guy.  At 6', he doen't catch as much flack for being little, but he's only 1" taller and about 10 lbs. lighter than Coleman.  Fuller is a deep threat but that's about it at this point.

Orrrrrr...

***14.*** Jaylon Smith LB Notre Dame
The Notre Dame LB is exactly what the Bengals defense needs: a rangy linebacker that can penetrate and make plays behind the line of scrimmage.  Unfortunately, he tore up his knee in January bad enough that he likely won't be available for 2016 and there's some risk he'll never be the same athlete again.  As many have quipped, if he were healthy he'd be a top 10 pick.  With questions about whether or not there is nerve damage in his knee still unanswered, I don't think anyone in the top 23 can afford to take the risk on him.  The Bengals on the other hand have the flexibility to pull the trigger.  The doctors will have their say.  If there's a decent chance he recovers, I  would slot him somewhere on the 5 to 7 range on this list.  If they are highly confident in a full recovery, I'd bump him up in the 1 to 3 range.
 
Others in the Mix:
Mackenzie Alexander CB Clemson
Ultra confident bump and run corner. Wasn't tested much in college.

Sheldon Rankins DT Louisville
Probably should be ranked higher, but might be too small to play next to Atkins

Leonard Floyd OLB Georgia
Raw 3-4 OLB.  I'm not sure they want to gamble on him as a 4-3 convert.  Hopefully he gets taken higher and pushes everyone else down.

Kevin Dodd DE Clemson
See Shaq Lawson notes above.

Noah Spence OLB Eastern Kentucky
A better fit than Floyd to convert to a stand up edge rushing LB that can also handle 4-3 duties.  Off the field concerns and disappointing workouts drop him down.

Von Bell S Ohio State
With Reggie Nelson officially moving on, a safety wouldn't be the worst idea in the world.  If they do it in round 1, Bell is their top option.

Ryan Kelly C Alabama
Sorry Russ Bodine.  I am still trying to replace you.

That's it.  I'll try to squeeze a few other posts in predraft, but definitely check back the week of draft day for my final mock.