Week 3: Stay On Target

See Bengals fans, I told you not to panic.  They got clubbed by Baltimore, but they did some positive things in the opening week Monday-nighter in a lion's den on the road.  The offense made the plays they needed to make to hold off Cleveland and showed a little explosiveness while they were at it.  The defense getting lit up by the child-man, Brandon Weeden, and his rag tag crew of butterfinger bandits (and oh yeah, Trent Richardson too) was a little unsettling, but the Browns had nothing to lose.  All the pressure was on Cincy and they picked up the "W".  Next, they picked up a road win spoiling the grand opening of Washington's "RG3: The Greatest Show on Earth" production.  The offense overcame a sloppy pick 6 and BenJarvus Green-Ellis's first ever fumble to hang 38.  Admittedly, the Redskins defense has been hit hard with injuries and has a less than stellar secondary, but again the Bengals flashed some firepower with three 40+ yard TD's.  The offense hasn't had that kind of  snap in it in a while.  They still have a long way to go and they need to prove they can do it against stiffer competition, but the seed is there.  We'll see if it grows.  The defense gave up another truckload of points, but had a good first half and showed signs of life.  What a difference having Carlos Dunlap back makes, and how about Michael Johnson notching three sacks?  More importantly, week 2 was better than week 1 and week 3 was better than week 2.  Like I said, they don't need to look like contender yet.  Eek through these first six games, try to get healthy, and work out all the bugs for the meat of the schedule.

Unfortunately, this weekend might be a tough test on the road for the second straight week facing Jacksonville, a team that is probably a slight step up in competition from what they've faced the last two games. Cincy's cornerbacks haven't exactly set the world on fire and they can't seem to get healthy.  Jason Allen is doubtful again this weekend and Nate Clements and Leon Hall are also gimpy.  If the corners have been average at best, the safeties have been a car crash to the point that the Bengals went crawling back to Chris Crocker this week for relief.  I don't know if they can pull through this weekend, but if they can swing two out of the next three I think they'll be in a good position.
   
A few quick notes from elsewhere in the league..

Wild Wild West:
How about that NFC West?  It wasn't too long ago the West had been so consistently bad in recent years that pundits started grumbling about the league needing to consider taking away guaranteed playoff spots for division winners.  All of a sudden, the NFC West might be the class of the NFL.  The offensive firepower is so-so, but it's not a stretch for them to claim three top-five defenses.  Philadelphia, Houston, Chicago, and Dallas have to be in that conversation, but San Francisco, Seattle, and Arizona are right there with them.  The 49ers were on everyone's radar and Seattle drew some preseason buzz, but Arizona is the team turning some heads.  Many, including myself, considered the Cardinals a bottom feeder.  I knew they had some players on defense (although LB Daryl Washington snuck past me.  I didn't know how good he was, but by all accounts he is playing as well as anyone right now), but the way their offensive line and quarterbacks looked they seemed destined to fall apart once the season started.  The defense has been ten times as good as I could have imagined and the offense has fed off the D and done just enough to win.  My apologies Cardinals fans.  Your squad has become the darling team of the 2012 season.   


Good For Kolb:
Speaking of which, congratulations Kevin Kolb!  For a guy that has been followed by a rain cloud for the past few years, he seems to have finally caught a break.  He was anointed the starter in Philly before almost immediately losing the job to Michael Vick due to injury.  Philly shipped him to Arizona where he muddled through the lockout shortened preseason in a new system, got dinged up behind that sloppy offensive line, and looked ineffective.  Even though it seems like Kolb has failed as a starting QB a Rex Grossman-like number of times, that was pretty much it. That brings us to this year where he was edged out in a QB competition with John Skelton.   It's a now now now league.  When players like Cam Newton put up big numbers right out of the gate, it's hard for teams to be patient with somebody like Kolb.  Some kids crawl before they walk.  Some kids army crawl.  Some kids run right away.  Kolb has taken an awful lot of scrutiny for simply crawling before he walks.  It's nice to see the guy get another chance and do something with it.  He popped off the bench to lead a fourth quarter comeback in week 1.  He played game manager while the defense did their thing in New England.  And he looked outstanding in what had to be a gratifying win against his old team in week 3.  We'll see if he can keep it going, but so far so good.    

The Replacements:

The saga is over.  Now we can go back to hating the normal refs.  Personally, I was more annoyed with all of the whining about the replacements than the actual effects on the games.  Of course they weren't going to be as good.  Of course things were going to slow down.  With all of the overblown hyperventilating about player safety and the integrity of the game, I'm not sure what people wanted the league to do.  The lockout was an annoyance, but it was a necessary evil. Everyone kept saying it's not that much money, the NFL should just give in.  Are you kidding?? They were separated by 50 million dollars.  I don't care how much revenue the league has, it's not like they would have just eaten the cost.  They would have charged it directly back to you and me in ticket prices and T.V. contracts.  Neither side was going to budge without the pressure of what happened last Monday night.  I'm glad the league held strong.  I don't understand why the refs got such a free pass in this whole thing. It takes two to tango.  They received a standing ovation upon their return Thursday night. If I were in the stands, it would have been nothing but  boos from me.           

That's all for this week.  Sorry this is late.  I couldn't take my eyes off the Ryder cup.  WOW, what an exciting sporting event.  

The Week 1 Blues

The 24-7 sports news microscope has grown so intense that not only does everyone overreact to week 1 NFL action, but the media has also started mocking their own sweeping conclusions while they're concluding.  "I know we're overeating about one game, but the Bears are amazing!" "Is Joe Flacco an elite quarterback?" "Cancel the season.  Baltimore and San Francisco have earned byes to the Super Bowl.  Sorry New England and Chicago, you lost in the conference championship games."  Fans and analysts alike always splice the caveat in, but nobody can help themselves. Then of course there's the flip side.  For any team thought to be decent going into the start of the year, it's doomsday after an 0-1 record.  Heaven forbid somebody goes 0-2.  Then the stats start flying around about the chances of making the playoffs and the chances of getting struck by lightning while holding a fifty cent piece and sneezing on the Lombardi Trophy are roughly equivalent.  It's maddening, but at the same time it's hard not to get sucked into it.  The national consensus heading into the season didn't give the Bengals any shot at breaking through this year, but Bengals fans like every other fan base had high hopes for 2012.  Consequently, last Monday's game was quite a gut shot for Cincinnati supporters.  Here is my take on the game and my attempt at talking everyone in Cincy off the ledge... 

The Sky is not Falling Cincy Fans:

The walls of Bengaldom shook after the Monday night debacle in Baltimore.  It's hard not to be dismayed when early season optimism is squashed right out of the gate with a 44-13 clubbing.  While I was hoping for Cincy to show well in the game, once the dust had settled I wasn't too worried about it (I'm much more worried about the season-ending injury to starting weak-side linebacker Thomas Howard suffered in practice this week.  If you break it down, it might be the one position on the entire roster other than center where there isn't an obvious backup plan. Stay tuned.  This could be huge)  .  Yes, the Bengals defense got kicked in the teeth.  Yes, the offense's inability to score TD's in the red zone was just one example illustrating their lack of polish and execution.  But it's a long season and what happened in week 1 doesn't necessarily indict the entire season.  The defense played bad, but that doesn't make them a bad defense.  It's like when the Bengals thumped the Bears a few years back.  The Bengals offensive scheme skewered the Bears defensive scheme.  If those two teams played again that same year?  Who knows.  I do not think that Cincinnati's personnel stinks.  I think they can execute better and will improve, and the coaches think that too.  It's a long year.  Time will tell if we are right.  Don't lose hope yet.  There were bright spots.  The offense moved the ball.  The offensive line, everyone's question mark heading into the game, played great.  Remember it's much more important to be hot at the end of the season than at the beginning (ask the Giants and the Packers).  This is still a young team with talent that benefits from boards to the face like this.  I might even stretch as far as to say that beating Baltimore in week 1 might have been worse for this team than getting their clocks cleaned.  It would be like a greyhound catching the rabbit before the race is over.  They're not quite ready for that.  Now, the bar is set.  They know where they have to get to.  And they get another crack at Baltimore in week 17.  They smelled the rabbit.  Now go get that freaking thing.  Besides, this wasn't a game they had to win.  That's this week.  In the first half of the season, they just need to beat the inferior teams.  If they can go 4-2 to start, they can afford to drop a couple of games when the competition stiffens and still be in good enough shape to rebound and make a push towards the postseason.

That's it for now.  I'll try to check back in in a few weeks.  Hopefully it's not another "Don't panic" post!
   

2012 NFL Preview

The 2012 football season is upon us.  Soak up every last ounce of it.  With player safety headlines swirling and lawsuits brewing, the league’s pending doom might only be a few years away.  That’s what I heard the Mayans predicted anyway.  But as of right now, the NFL is still king so here’s my take on each team’s chances heading into the season. 

AFC North

As usual it’s going to be a slug fest in the AFC North this year.  The division placed three teams in the playoffs last year, but all three face significant obstacles in returning to the postseason in 2012. 

Baltimore will try to defend their crown with a roster that is somewhat in flux.  Free agency stole their safety depth, one of their pro-bowl-caliber guards (Ben Grubbs), and one of the least heralded but soon to be sorely missed members of their linebacking corps, Jarret Johnson.  Their best pass rusher is likely out for the year, they are still shaky at OT, Matt Birk isn’t getting any younger at center, and…well, I’ll throw in my annual “Ray Lewis and Ed Reed will be running out of gas soon” comment.  These guys just might keep playing until the league starts blood testing (oops, did I say that out loud.  Seriously though, if Ray Lewis is clean, I feel like his body has to be added as one of the seven natural wonders of the world right behind the Grand Canyon.  Sorry Mount Everest, you’re out. Lewis is in.   The guy has been in crash test dummy like numbers of violent collisions, he is 37 years old, and he’s coming back for more?  Sorry Ray, it’s hard not to be cynical these days when it comes to PED’s and the world of sports.  I hope you’re for real.  I can’t stand your team, but I hope you’re for real).  I don’t think Baltimore will fall to the bottom of the scrap heap or anything, but between the personnel headaches and the first place schedule (their non-common games are with New England and Houston.  Pittsburgh gets Tennessee and N.Y. Jets.  Cincy gets Jacksonville and Miami) I can’t see them coming out on top in this battle royal. 

Pittsburgh made a concerted effort in the draft to improve their offensive line.  Injury and incompetence have taken their first two draft picks out of the running for their starting lineup and they're all set to enter the season with the same rag tag crew as last year.  If they’re not careful, Ben Roethlisburger is going to start having pre concussion syndrome.   They’ve made some effort to reload their aging defense, but I’m not sure the young guns are ready yet.  The linebacking corps is going to have to carry the team and I’m just not sure they can win the division doing that. 

Cincinnati had the best offseason in the division, but it has been a revolving door into the trainer’s room throughout the preseason.  Injuries have already claimed their left guard for the year and their center for at least half the season while many others have been saddled with various sprains and strains.  It seemed like only about half their roster was active for each preseason game.  With week 1 looming, a lot of the guys who’ve been sitting out are coming back, but it remains to be seen who was held out for precautionary reasons and who has a nagging ailment that is going to linger all year long.  I still like the offensive weapons, even though they’re mostly unproven.  I have a feeling the offense will start slow, but grow stronger and stronger throughout the year.  The schedule is softest early on.  Five of the first six games are against Cleveland twice, Washington, Miami, and Jacksonville.  The key to the year will be for the O to work through all the growing pains and still manage at worst a 4-2 starting record.  After that, there aren’t too many breaks in the schedule (as always that statement is subject to change depending on how the year plays out.  It’s unclear how good San Diego and Oakland will be and who knows who will be starting at QB for Denver and Philly by the second half of the season).  The Bengals defense appears to be the more seasoned unit, but they’ll have their ups and downs as well.  Rey Maualuga and Taylor Mays patrolling the middle will be a roller coaster ride all year long.  I like that their experimenting with Nate Clements and Leon Hall at safety on passing downs.  If Jason Allen, Adam Jones, and Terrence Newman can stay healthy enough to man the corner positions, safety might not be as big of a concern as I think.  Regardless of what goes on in the back seven, the defensive line is the hinge that can swing this unit from mediocre to masterful.  Carlos Dunlap being able to come back at 100% off of the knee sprain is key, but if Geno Atkins keeps wreaking havoc in the middle, it could be a moot point.  When all is said and done, I think the Bengals will eek out another winning season, but not by much.

I still like the Bengals’ chances to re-take the division.  If you figure on Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati all winning 4 games in the division and going 4-4 against the AFC West and NFC East, I think Baltimore will have trouble cracking eight wins as they face the toughest schedule.  That would put Cincinnati and Pittsburgh at ten wins if they can sweep inferior teams in the two remaining games, and that is probably right where all three end up: in the eight, nine, ten win range. 

Cleveland on the other hand has hit the reset button again this year. Their roster is not devoid of talent. It is just cursed.  They’ve already lost their nose tackle to injury and their star corner to suspension (for the start of the season), and their number 3 overall draft pick running back already has two knee surgeries under his belt this calendar year.  Yet, all of this would be irrelevant if they hadn’t flubbed the chance to trade for Robert Griffin III.  Sorry Cleveland, I’m not sure there’s light at the end of the tunnel. 

Cincinnati: 9-7

Pittsburgh: 9-7

Baltimore: 8-8

Cleveland: 4-12

AFC South:

The AFC South is a legit candidate for the weakest division in football, but it’s a little better than people are giving credit. 

Starting at the bottom, Indianapolis will have a hard time climbing out of the cellar but don’t be fooled, they will give some people fits this year.  The defense will be lost in translation as they try to convert from over a decade of Tampa 2 constructed to feed off their offense to a stingy Baltimore type scheme that hits people in the mouth.  They won’t be able to stop anybody, but Andrew Luck will win a few shootouts for them.  I’d say the win total doubles from two to four. 

Tennessee is another middle of the pack team where it’s not clear whether it will be two steps forward or two steps back.  With the Jake Locker regime officially heading into full swing, it’s hard to believe they won’t drop down a notch.   Their offense will be up and down and I couldn’t begin to tell you the name of their best defender.  Sign them up for seven wins. 

Jacksonville has been pegged in most circles as a doormat in the running for the number one overall draft pick.  I’m going to go out on a limb and predict a leap forward for the Jags.  Their defense is stronger than people think and their offense can’t be any worse than it was last year.  For what it’s worth, the guy all NFL pundits used as a speed bag last year for his abysmal attempts at playing quarterback, Blaine Gabbert, has looked surprisingly competent so far this year (as in he’s actually throwing under pressure without ducking as he hurls the ball).  It won’t be a leap into contention, but I’ll bump them up to 8-8. 

Lost in all the chatter about Houston dominating the South are the free agency hits they took on the offensive line.  If the rushing attack stumbles a little, I don’t know if there’s enough firepower on the outside to make up the difference.  The Texans almost rode a hot defense to the Super Bowl last year despite the QB injuries.  This year, it’s the defense’s turn to get banged up.  Even so, they should be good for 10 wins.  They just won’t contend for the AFC crown like many are predicting.

Houston: 10-6

Jacksonville: 8-8

Tennessee: 7-9

Indianapolis: 4-12

AFC East:

They should rename this division “New England’s AFC East”.  The offensive line is a question mark.  Past that, they are loaded with offensive weapons and the defense looks like it will be better.  It’s hard to envision any scenario not involving injury where the Patriots don’t come out on top here.  The real question is whether they can make it back to the Super Bowl in what might be the last year of Tom Brady’s prime.  I haven’t figured out who will beat them, but I don’t think they make it through the playoffs with the offensive line as it stands right now.

Buffalo made a lot of splashy moves in the offseason and on paper their defense is a force to be reckoned with.  Regardless, while forecasting the Bills, I always end up back at Ryan Fitzpatrick. He could easily swing the team either way.  Their nine wins will reflect about where he fits into the league’s quarterback hierarchy.   

The New York Jets looked like a mess all preseason.  Will the defense be good enough to make up for an offense that will be streaky at best?  They’ll start off better than people are expecting, but they’ll have a hard time holding it together all year long.  The story will be different this year.  The results will be similar.

Miami was one of the best bad teams of last year, but a lot has happened since then.  They’re starting a rookie quarterback under a rookie head coach, and they cleaned house personnel-wise trading away the gruff personalities out of the locker room.  Unfortunately, the players they shipped away were their best playmakers.  The defense is still decent, but I expect it to be a long year. 

New England: 12-4

Buffalo: 9-7

New York: 7-9

Miami:  3-12     

AFC West

With three teams at 8-8 and one team at 7-9, the AFC West was ruled by mediocrity in 2011.  Can anyone step up and establish at least one Super Bowl Contender from the division?  Actually, all four teams have a shot at restoring some credibility out west, but good luck figuring out which one. 

Denver’s chances lie almost entirely on the shoulders of perhaps this year’s top storyline: Peyton Manning.   A lot of people are buying in and have Denver as a strong playoff team.  It’s unbelievable.  The season is starting and you still read stuff about him still working on getting all his arm strength back.  Let me say that again, THE SEASON IS STARTING!  He hasn’t played in over a year.  I can’t see how he can possibly play at an elite level if he’s not 100%.  If he’s not elite, the Broncos won’t win the west let alone contend for a Super Bowl Berth.  “Peyton will be good.  Peyton will be good.” Snap out of the trance people.  I just hope the guy doesn’t get seriously hurt.  I don’t care what the Dr.’s say.  How could they possibly know what a blind side collision with a 300 lb man will do to Manning’s body?  Best case scenario, he grits out an 8-8 year, manages to avoid re-injuring himself and comes back in 2013 a little closer physically to where he needs to be.        

I feel like Oakland and San Diego are two of the bigger swing teams in the league.  I could talk myself into 10-6 or 2-14. In Oakland, the roster on a whole has taken a hit as they try to weather the bad contracts Al Davis handed out over the last few years.  I thought Carson Palmer had a shot at turning back the clock this year, but the preseason has been the same old story.  His receivers can’t stay healthy and he throws too many interceptions.  All of the picks weren’t his fault, but it’s hard to look past them at this point.  The defense seems like they won’t dominate, but they won’t single handedly lose games either.  Overall, I’d say this is a five or six win team that jumps to eight or nine in the unlikely event that Darren McFadden’s feet don’t crumble at some point this year.  He’s that good. 

San Diego was an enigmatic squad that underachieved last year.  Phillip Rivers and company should bounce back this year, but can they push through the early injury bug they’ve been hit with and can their O-line step up their game?  I say yes and yes, but it’s a wild guess honestly. 

Kansas City has been the most trendy pick for a bounce back season and I’m going to take the bait and buy in.  Adding Eric Winston at RT should be the boost the K.C. rushing attack needs ,and conversely the passing game should feed off that.  The defense has been stout under Romeo Crennel, and there’s no reason to think it won’t stay that way.  The Chiefs will start slow, but eventually club their way to a division title.  They might even win a playoff game. 

Kansas City: 11-5

San Diego: 10-6

Oakland: 7-9

Denver: 6-10

NFC North:

Sorry Lions fans, I’ve got you taking a step back this year.  Mathew Stafford and Calvin Johnson have to be 100% all year long for them to duplicate last season’s performance and I don’t see that happening.  The running back situation doesn’t look improved and the secondary could actually be worse than last year.  That means they’ll be slinging it trying to score 40 to win by 2 all year long.  It’s a slippery slope to try that strategy too many years in a row when Stafford is a jammed shoulder away from derailing their season. 

In Minnesota, Ponder will be better this year, but the offense is still developing.  The defensive line is aging but still strong.  Unfortunately, the back 7 group playing behind them is a work in progress.  They’ll improve the win total this year, but will it be enough to keep Leslie Frazier off the hot seat?

The Bears are everybody’s dark horse this year.  I like them to make the playoffs, but will the defense be good enough to do any damage?  Under Mike Tice, they’ve somehow managed to win with a bad offensive line.  I think they’ll keep it going this year, but they won’t be able hang with the Packers. 

There’s not much to say about Green Bay.  Their offense is the best in the league and their defense can’t be any worse than it was last year.  They’re the favorites heading into the year and I’ll have a hard time staying away from them as my Super Bowl pick. 

NFC South

The South is a division that could shake out a lot of different directions.  I see Carolina and Tampa improving, New Orleans stumbling, and Atlanta winning by default.

 I expect Cam Newton to get better and the Carolina defense to bounce back from the barrage of injuries they suffered in 2011.  The defensive line still has to improve and the offense will suffer a major setback if they don’t find some “Steve Smith, our number 1 WR, is about to decline soon” insurance, but all in all Carolina is still on course to contention (almost seemingly in spite of the bizarre contracts GM Marty Hurney keeps handing out). 

In Tampa Bay, new head coach, Greg Schiano, and some free agency reinforcements should boost the Buccaneer’s win total.  They’ve dumped a lot of resources into rebuilding their defense, but they still have a ways to go.  Injuries have already started to sap their depth.  Things derailed last year, but they seem to have found the right man to get them back on track. 

The New Orleans situation is intriguing.  Originally, I thought they’d be a dumpster fire, but I’ve softened on that quite a bit. I think it’s looking more like they’ll lose some close games and end up somewhere around seven wins.  General consensus on the other hand has started to warm back up to the Saints and many analysts are still projecting them to challenge for the NFC crown.  They are dreaming.  I just don’t see how, minus suspended coach Sean Peyton, they can be any better than 75% of what they were last year.   Yes Drew Brees is great.  I’m sure they’ll look fine early on.  But wait until about half way through the season when teams are starting to make defensive adjustments to what the Saints are doing and injuries start to mount and they’re trying to hold the roster together with silly string and popcycle sticks.  THAT’s when they’ll miss Peyton.   If they end up with nine or ten wins, everything has gone right.  There’s no way everything goes right.   

Atlanta is once again showing flashes of being an offensive juggernaut.  They’ll be good, but I don’t think they’re the well-oiled machine that you see in Green Bay and New England.  I don’t think anyone else is capable of winning this division this year, but Atlanta’s offensive line and defense still aren’t good enough for the post season.   

Atlanta: 11-6

Tampa Bay: 8-8

Carolina: 8-8

New Orleans: 7-9

NFC East:

I’ll spare you all of the clichés about the strength of the NFC East, but suffice it to say each time these teams face each other it will be one of the more interesting watches of the weekend. 

The Redskins fans are smelling roses with Robert Griffin III getting ready to kick off his career.  The secondary needs rebuilt and the O-line is still a work in progress.  They aren’t contenders yet but with that defensive front seven and their franchise QB in the fold, it shouldn’t be long.  

All three remaining teams look like ten to twelve win squads, but more than likely one will fall on hard times and come up short.  The Giants face a Super Bowl hangover and still have an injury-riddled secondary.  Their strong defensive line somehow managed to mask the deficiency at the end of last year, but Dallas already proved in the opener that it’s a major problem.

Dallas’ main liability looks to be their offensive line.  The defense looks much better and the offensive weapons are adequate when healthy.  If Tony Romo can keep dancing out of trouble they could be as good as anybody.

Philadelphia will struggle to fill the void of injured all-pro left tackle, Jason Peters, but otherwise they have a very similar outlook as Dallas except with a better all-around defense and better offensive weapons.  If all Andy Reid’s horses and all Andy Reid’s men can put Michael Vick back together again, watch out.  Unfortunately, the Peters injury forces Vick to rely too much on scrambling.   Even if he stays healthy, he is going to wear down.  Philly wins the AFC East battle, but loses the NFC war. 

Philadelphia: 11-5

Dallas: 10-6

New York: 9-7

Washington 5-11

NFC West

An annual contender for worst division in the league, the NFC west is starting to see a resurgence.  Although St. Louis and Arizona are still shaky, Jim Harbaugh and Pete Carroll have their teams rolling to where both might make the playoffs.

Behind a shaky quarterback and a bad offensive line, Arizona might have the worst offense in the league.  It’s a tough title to hold when you have one of the greatest WR’s in the history of the league in his prime, but the Cardinals are somehow managing to do it.  The defense isn’t half bad, but unless they play like the ’00 Ravens I’m not sure it matters.  I have them in the Matt Barkley derby. 

St. Louis might finally have some luck this year, but even if they do, the roster is still pretty heavily in transition.  They could double their win total.  Unfortunately, that only takes them up to four. 

San Francisco came a couple of punt return fumbles away from going to the Super Bowl last year.  They bring back an unheard of 11 of 11 starters on defense and have retooled their offense.  I believe in Harbaugh enough to think their won’t be much of a drop-off, but the cookie crumbled almost perfectly for them (until the end) last year.  It’s hard to believe it will happen again.   

Seattle has suddenly turned into everyone’s sweetheart team.  Watch out for Russell Wilson fever.  Strangely, I am on the bad wagon.  Often roasted for his outside-the-box roster moves, GM John Schneider must be flashing everyone the double-barreled finger as his team appears on the brink of a great season.

Seattle: 11-5

San Francisco: 10-6

St. Louis: 4-12

Arizona:  2-14

Playoff Picks:

Alright, we made it! Is everyone still awake?   If you’re keeping tally, I’ve got the divisional winners as Cincinnati, Houston, New England, Kansas City, Green Bay, Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Seattle.  For wild cards, I’ll go with San Diego, Buffalo, San Francisco, and Dallas.  As for the Super Bowl, I can’t get away from Green Bay in the NFC .  The AFC is a different story.   Consensus has it boiled down to a select group in contention that includes New England, Houston, and Baltimore along with Pittsburgh and Denver as long shots.   I think it will be none of the above.  With everything so watered down, I think it’s going to be a surprise team.  I see New England rolling through the regular season and then getting stumped by a stingy defense in the playoffs.   By process of elimination, the candidates are Cincinnati (this blog might be a little too Tinted orange if I went there), Kansas City (not good enough quarterback), Buffalo (hmm), or San Diego (BINGO).  It doesn’t make total sense right now. Their O-line looks sub-par.  Their RB and one of their top WR’s are both injured.  No one can imagine Norv Turner leading his team to the Super Bowl.  As the Giants have proven on multiple occasions, it’s not what your team looks like at the start of the season that determines your playoff chances.  The Rivers to Gates combo experiences a renaissance.  The defense rebounds with a fury and everything else falls into place. 

SPOILER ALERT: The Chargers can’t keep up with the packers in Super Bowl XLVII

Green Bay 34       

San Diego 20

That’s all for now.  Enjoy the start to 2012!

2012 Draft: Bengals Front Office Continues to Purr

Look out everyone, the 2012 season is upon us.  Training camps are opening and the winter of inactivity between the draft and preseason is more or less over.  Before the season gains too much steam, I’m going to peek back at the draft and give you my take on how things played out for your Cincinnati Bengals (sorry any non Cincy readers out there...if you exist.  Feel free to overt your eyes for this edition).  Ideally I would have posted this three months ago, but I’ve been chipping away at it for a while and just never got it all sewn together until now.  Oh well, training camp news hasn’t really started rolling in yet.  Hopefully it will be a good way to refresh your memory on the new young players in town and get you pumped up for the upcoming season.

Looking back, how about the first round of that draft, eh?  It was fast and furious with a total of eight draft-day trades in the first round (in addition to the four non-draft-day trades involving first round picks: RG3 trade, Carson Palmer trade, Julio Jones trade, and Mark Ingram trade).  The excessive fluidity has been widely attributed to the new rookie salary structure, but a less publicized factor was the gargantuan talent plateau from about pick seven spilling into the second round.  Yes, the landscape wasn’t totally flat, but it was clear there was a wide variety of opinion on various players, and teams slid around to secure the players they liked accordingly. 

The Bengals have drawn rave reviews for their efforts.  While I’m not as ready as others to declare it a home run, the Bengals definitely hit a line shot into left field.  Many have assigned Cincy a letter grade in the A- to A range.   I’d leave it at a B to B+ until we see some of these guys on the field.  Here’s my take on each pick.

The First Round:

To start out, Cincinnati addressed one of their top roster needs in youth at cornerback.  The addition of Alabama CB Dre Kirkpatrick allows them to pair the rookie with free agent signee Jason Allen.  Now they just need one of the veterans to pan out between Leon Hall (injury), Terrance Newman (age), Nate Clements (age/injury), and Adam Jones (head case) to give them a solid trio of CB’s in their secondary for the next couple of years.  None of these players are going to silence high-end receivers, but they should give Mike Zimmer the tools he needs to stop opposing offenses. 

That, of course, assumes that Kirkpatrick himself pans out.  He is a tall corner with average speed that plays hard and is a willing tackler.  Essentially he is a cocky version of Leon Hall.   He’ll never be a top-five guy at his position but if the defensive line realizes its potential, it shouldn’t matter.  From a pure value standpoint, Kirkpatrick probably grades out about six or seven picks later than where he was drafted, but at this point there’s no need for the Bengals to quibble about that.  Their pick came up.  A guy that, by all accounts, they were high on (…no pun intended. More on that in a second.) at a need position was available.  They pulled the trigger.   In other words, the roster has strengthened to where they can afford not to get too cute and try to squeeze every ounce of value possible out of every pick.  The last question and the reason for angst as my initial reaction to the pick is the character flag.  Until he was charged with marijuana possession this winter, Kirkpatrick had no reported issues in his past, but the recent brush with the law makes me wonder how he’ll handle life with a truckload of money.  Yes, the charges were dropped and reportedly he was in a car with a friend who purchased the drugs and Kirkpatrick was unaware of what the friend was buying (good one Dre), but that doesn’t stop me from being anxious he’ll be the subject of the next heart-sinking headline I read on ESPN.com.  Despite reputation, the Bengals actually now have a pretty high-character locker room.  Hopefully it’s enough to steer Kirkpatrick away from trouble.              

After nabbing Kirkpatrick with the pick acquired from Oakland, Cincy found themselves back on the clock at pick 21 with their own pick, and the value ripe on everyone’s top guard prospect, David DeCastro.  They had a few other options where the value was a little softer in guys like ILB Dont’a Highertower, WR Stephen Hill, RB Doug Martin, and S Harrison Smith, but if they had decided to keep the pick I don’t see how they could have strayed away from a guy at a need position that most people think will make at least a half dozen pro-bowls.  Instead, the Bengals traded down with New England to the 27^th slot.  If you would have told me before the draft that DeCastro was available at 21, I would have done cartwheels.  The punch to the stomach of Cincy passing on him only worsened two picks later when he was snatched up by the Steelers.  With the 27^th pick, the Bengals selected Kevin Zeitler, another guard drawing very high praise from analysts.  So, the question became: is the gap between Decastro and Zeitler small enough to justify allowing DeCastro to go to a division rival while settling for Zeitler and an extra third rounder?  The contention from the Bengals camp of course is that they didn’t see much separation between the two.  I think he’s a slightly lesser guard, but he’s still tough, strong, and can pull better than anyone they’ve had in a while.  The clincher that appears to have tipped the scales towards Zeitler for Cincy coaches is his ability to fill in as backup center.  It‘s a role that is drastically underrated (look what happened to the Bengals’ high powered offense while they searched for Rich Braham’s replacement), and having the vacancy filled is a big bonus.  A silver lining to taking Zeitler at 27 was the fact that Baltimore was reportedly looking to bring him in to replace Ben Grubbs, their star guard they lost via free-agency.  There are pros and cons to this debate.  We’ll find out if it was the right call soon enough. 

The DT’s:

The two defensive tackles taken in the second and third rounds looked like pure value picks on the surface, but playing in the AFC North where the battle cry is focused more intensely on winning the war in the trenches than any other division, both moves have significant  roster functionality.  Devon Still (Penn State) and Brandon Thompson (Clemson) are big, strong grizzly bears capable of stepping into the fray early if needed.  Still is a little taller and sleeker with some pass rush ability while the beefier Thompson is more squat but is strong as an ox.  Still carried some first round buzz but fell to the second.  Thompson carried some second round buzz but fell to the third.  Both picks brought good value, but did they really need two DT’s?  My initial reaction was No.  You could make a case for Still.  They have gone light on DT’s the past couple of years and relied on versatile players like Robert Geathers, Jonathan Fanene, and Frostee Rucker to fill in where needed.  The strategy worked well when everyone was healthy.  Unfortunately, when Pat Sims went down last year, the combo guys filling in at DT weren’t quite good enough and the run defense crumbled.  With last year’s roster headaches fresh in his mind and Fanene and Rucker out the free-agency door, come draft day Marvin Lewis opted for a new D-line game plan.  Retain Sims to back up Peko and draft Still to back up Atkins for a more traditional four DT approach.  Once I digested it, it made sense…and then came the third round where they drafted ANOTHER tackle and the questions immediately started rattling through my head: Will they keep five?  Will they go light at DE?  If not, what other position do they skimp on?  It took me a few days, but I finally got on board with the pick.  In fact, it has become my second favorite (stay tuned for my first favorite) pick of this draft.  With NFL rosters these days, depth has almost become as important as skill.  The season is a war of attrition now more than ever and it starts with training camp.  Functionally, if you don’t think of Thompson as the fifth guy but instead consider him Sims’ replacement it goes from a questionable pick to a shrewd move.  I like Sims, but he’s been around a few years and is coming off a significant injury.  If they want to keep him around much longer they’ll have to pay him more than they want to pay a backup.    Thompson is younger and cheaper.  If he shows up at camp and he gets hurt or he isn’t who they thought he was, Sims is the contingency.  Go into the season with as few roster vulnerabilities as possible.  That’s the name of the game and with fewer and fewer holes to plug, the Thompson pick is a luxury the Bengals can now afford. 

The Receivers:

Jordan Shipley’s ’11 injury and Jerome Simpson’s legal woes / free agency left a gaping hole in Cincy’s receiving corps behind A.J. Green heading into the draft.  It felt like they toyed with grabbing somebody in the bottom of the first, but opted to pass.  They strengthened the D-line in the second (maybe seeing Pittsburgh take a bull dog like DeCastro had something to do with that).  By the third round they considered trading up, but stayed patient and finally ended up with Rutgers WR Mohamed Sanu.  Sanu is a big body receiver (6’ 2”, 211 lbs) with adequate speed (4.67 in the 40) who runs routs with more polish than most incoming WR’s.  The early feedback has been positive with the coaches seeming to think he can compete for the WR2 job right away.  If that’s true, he’s a pretty good get for a third rounder.  The fifth WR selection, Marvin Jones, brings some speed to the depth chart (4.46 in the 40) but he will be in a dog fight to make the team with returnees Brandon Tate, Armon Binns, and Ryan Whalen all performing well so far in the offseason.

I’ll go ahead and lump in the fourth round TE pick, Orson Charles (Georgia), with the receivers.  This is it: my favorite Bengals pick of the year.  Charles was in the mix for top TE of the 2012 class status until a miserable January through April washed him into day three of the draft.  When the Bengals threw him a lifeline, he eagerly grabbed on instantly trying to figure out how he could get on a plane and start learning the offense and his teammates.  He seems genuinely remorseful over his offseason DUI and adamant it will be a one-time incident.  I can’t wait to see how he fits in.  I think they’ll stick him on the field in two TE sets and really punish teams down the seams with Jermaine Gresham…or Charles…or both, sending one deep and one on a cross or at the flag…or send neither and go with a power run.  Gruden has to be salivating over the scheme versatility (oh by the way, this is on top of being able to throw out three WR sets with a big body in the slot like Sanu or Whalen or Bins…OR a jitter bug in the slot like Andrew Hawkins.  Yes, pretty much every receiver besides Green has to prove they can play at a high level against NFL level talent.  Yes, I am drinking a little too much Kool-Aid, but it sure tastes good.  Something is brewing.  This unit might surprise a few people.).

The Rest of the Crop:

Along with Marvin Jones, the Bengals selected Shaun Prater (CB, Iowa) and George Iioka (S, Boise State) in the fifth round.  Prater was a good college corner with average size and decent athletic ability.  He might need an injury to make the team and if they send him to the practice squad I have a feeling he’ll get plucked off waivers.  Iioka is another big, athletic safety to go with their collection of big, athletic safeties (am I the only one picturing Marvin Lewis sitting in his basement hand painting little metal toy soldiers?).   It’s a good direction to go with the onslaught of freakish TE athletes in the league, but the big question will be if any of these guys can cover?  Iioka has a reputation as more of a run defender that flies to the ball, but he’s a below average tackler (sort of the opposite of what they need, but as a fifth rounder maybe he’ll develop).  Lastly, the Bengals took OSU RB Dan Herron.  Again, it’s a decent pick, but I’m not sure he jumps ahead of Brian Leonard or Cedric Peerman in line behind BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Bernard Scott.  All three late round picks are injury insurance players that hopefully stick on the practice squad.

What’s Missing?

Overall, the Bengals did an admirable job strengthening their roster through the draft.  There’s some work left to do.  Young players have to develop for things to fall into place, but looking at the big picture they are in pretty good shape.   Notably missing from this draft class was young talent at the linebacker position.  Perhaps it was a vote of confidence for the backup guys like Dan Skuta and Micah Johnson or an indication that Roddrick Muckelroy is on the mend, but the depth behind the starters makes me a little nervous.  Heck, the starters make me nervous.  Manny Lawson and Thomas Howard are solid on the outside, but both are in their late 20s and are on short term contracts.  What’s the long range plan?  On the inside, it’s a make or break contract year for Rey Maualuga.  Maybe he finally puts it all together, but it’s hard to feel warm and fuzzy about him.  The enigmatic Vontaze Burfict, added as a college free agent, is an interesting fly in the ointment.  He is a definite character risk on and off the field, but the early reports have been positive and Marvin Lewis has taken him on as a pet project.  If nothing else he gives us something to look for in the fourth quarter of preseason games.

The next biggest team weakness is still at safety.   Will anyone emerge opposite Reggie Nelson?  It sounds like it’s Taylor Mays’ job to lose.  I don’t think he or anyone else behind him is reliable enough to take this defense where it needs to go (especially playing behind a MLB that struggles at times to fill the right holes).  It won’t be a total disaster.  There will certainly be moments when you think the kids are all alright.  Don’t let your guard down too far though.  The backbreaking 40 yard runs and 60 yard bombs that have plagued this defense the last few years are likely to keep you consistently screaming at the TV all year long (Come on Marvin!  For the sake of my mother’s blood pressure, develop an elite safety or MLB will ya??).  The sleeper solution here might be to shuffle someone out of the crowded scrum at cornerback over to safety.  Jason Allen has played there before, but I kind of like the idea of Leon Hall stabilizing the middle of the field.  Although, with Nate Clements sitting out the start of camp with an injury and Kirkpatrick out at least a month with a mysterious leg problem, they might need all of that depth at corner.  Long story short, if you’re hoping for the Bengals defense to become an elite unit in the league, keep an eye on safety and middle linebacker.  That’s where they most need someone to grow by leaps and bounds.  I just don’t know if anyone they have has it in them. 

That’s all for now.  Next up, I plan on a season preview post.  Hopefully, it will make it up some time before they season starts… but, at the rate I’m going who knows (maybe it will be three months into the season before I get it posted.  At least that way my predictions will be more accurate).