AFC Championship Triumph
They did it! Somehow some way. It has been over a week since the game and it still doesn’t seem real.
It was a tale of two halves against Kansas City. For the first two quarters it went just like most people figured. The Chiefs offense rolled and their defense did enough to slow down the Bengals offense.
When Cincy scored with a minute left in the half I thought oh no, too much time. When Cincy got a stop to start the second half I thought, okay if they don’t score here they’re in trouble. But they weren’t because this continues to be the season where things are different. Settling for field goals didn’t come back to haunt them. They didn’t get burnt staying loyal to their run game. They made second half adjustments and they all worked.
They kept their head, they weathered the storm, and they came charging back led by the unlikeliest of hero’s. Burrow sets the tone as the leader, but this team has evolved into a strange personification of my fantasy football team name from this year:
The Fighting Anarumos
We’ll see where this goes. I got the strange feeling when the Rams pulled it out against the 49ers that destiny had been broken and the magic had run out. However it turns out it was one heck of a ride. I have a pet peeve about calling players by their first names. It drives me up a wall. Yet, during that last overtime drive I must’ve said the word Joe 26 times.
Alright Joe.
C’mon Joe.
Here we go joe.
On to the Super Bowl
All week thinking about this matchup, I can’t shake the feeling of last year when we were saying, “Man, the chiefs are down to a journeymen and a backup guard at tackle, that’s going to be trouble against the Bucs pass rush.. but Patrick Mahommes!”
This year once again we have defensive line strength up against offensive line Achilles heel.
The Rams blowout scenario has haunted me for two weeks. A decent amount of national media members still believe in the magic of Joe Burrow, but the hard core analytic types can’t get past the obvious path to the Rams winning comfortably.
But that’s just not what either of these teams have been this season. The Rams typically end up somehow getting in their own way for large chunks of the game and the Bengals fight and scratch and claw back until it’s a close game.
All of the numbers tell one story about the Bengals. The run defense is bad. The offense is inefficient. To analysts, the statistics are ingredients. They have the whole season as their sample size, they mix it all together, they throw it in the oven, and pull it out to see what they’ve got: a solid team filled with fatal flaws.
The error comes in thinking of the team as a finished product. The loaf of bread got burnt in the oven and doesn’t taste good. But a team is never a finished product. It’s a trajectory. Trusting the data often works because most change and evolution happens slow. But this Bengals team is more like a bubbling smoking volcano than a baked good. Volatile. Dynamic. Not necessarily explosive, but capable of it, and the numbers can’t keep up with the true definition of what this team is.
It is an intriguing contrast between the two teams:
Glamour, glitz, star power. Hollywood. Big city. Trade every draft pick you have to bring in superstars and then cobble together everything else around them.
Vs.
Gritty, tough resilience. Midwest. Small market. Build through the draft and fill holes with free agency. Well rounded.
Bengals on the Offensive
For the Bengals on offense it’s going to be a slog. They are going to muck their way up and down the field and try to sneak enough shot plays to earn a couple red zone opportunities. Can they be consistent enough with their quick passing game to score points? They have the personnel to do it. Any one of their receivers can win 1 on 1 matchups, and the Rams top heavy roster has chinks in the armor at linebacker, safety, and corners not named Jalen Ramsey. I don’t think Rams defensive coordinator, Raheem Morris, is capable of disguising reads enough to confuse Burrow too often.
Running back receiving targets will also be a huge X factor. If they are going to drop into soft coverage and send three or four pass rushers, the running backs need to be able to make a man miss and gain positive yardage to keep the offense on schedule. Could Chris Evans be a secret weapon? He’s shown juice in limited opportunities this season. He got injured early in the year and never really got back into the mix until flashing lately as the kickoff returner and getting a carry in crunch time against the Titans. It feels like wishful thinking. I think he’s capable and he will emerge as a valuable weapon next year, but I don’t have high confidence the coaches will unleash him in this game. They are going to dance with Mixon smashing into the D-line and sprinkle in Perine on third downs.
I think this matchup will essentially play to a draw. They will try to run the ball without much success. The Rams defensive line will get theirs. But Joe Burrow will beg borrow and steal his way into field goal range five or six times and score 0 or 1 touchdown for 18 to 22 points.
On the Defensive
The key to the game will be on the other side of the ball. Can the mad chef, coach Lou, stay hot? Some pundits have L.A. with the coaching advantage, but Sean McVay is a little overrated at this point as an offensive coach and he has proven to be shaky with his clock management and time out usage. I’m riding the hot hand, advantage Bengals.
The strength of this defense is versatility.
They aren’t going to stifle you with run defense, but when they need to stiffen, D.J. Reader is a pillar they can rally around. Their pass rush doesn’t strike fear into the hearts of offenses, but they have pass rush talent. Hendrickson vs. Whitworth is an interesting matchup. Whitworth is still playing at a high level by all accounts, but i think Hendrickson can beat him wide a few times and win the day. The rest of the Rams line has had ups and downs, but the real key is Stafford. He’s not quite a statue but he certainly isn’t elusive. I think Hubbard and Hill can get home along with Hilton or Bell coming in with the occasional blitz.
The player pundits are most underrating in this game is Chidobe Awuzie. He has had a career year and has played like a top 10 corner in the league. People are falling all over themselves that Odell Beckham Jr. is back to his old superstar self. Sure he had a good game against San Francisco’s secondary with Cooper Kupp lighting up the other side of the field. But i don’t think it’s far fetched to say Awuzie is the best corner Beckham has faced in the playoffs. It’s no guarantee they’ll be matched up against each other of course, but I think it makes the most sense. He can take him one on one which would open up the door to suffocate the rest of the offense. They can disguise whatever bracket zone they want to throw at Kupp and try to cause Stafford to hesitate just a tick to allow Hendrickson and Co. to track him him down and force mistakes.
Prediction
In the end, the Bengals hold the Rams to 20 points. The Bengals only score 19… until #2 steps back on the field with the clock running down.
What will be my fantasy football team name for next year?:
“No McPherson”
Final score: Bengals 22 Rams 20
