2012 Final Mock!

Sooooo, it looks like my “initial” mock is going to turn into my final mock for 2012. It’s a shame. This draft is shaping up to be one of the more interesting year’s I can remember. The top two picks are about as locked in as you can get and after that just about everyone is trying to trade down. There is a little bit more value in the top ten but after about pick 6 the value dries out and you see huge 10 pick swings where each particular prospect might land. There are little pockets of value here and there but it gets spotty at times. I would have liked to break it down a little more, but I’m afraid I have to skip to the ending. Here’s how I see things shaping out.

1. 1.Indianapolis

This pick has been decided since Andrew Luck decided to return to Stanford for his junior season. He’s the best draft prospect since…okay, it has become cliché to say Elway. How about Peyton Manning? Although, if you don’t limit it to QB, and you’re talking prospects you’re most sure can turn into all-time greats, I can’t pass up Calvin Johnson in the best since discussion. Regardless…

The Pick: Andrew Luck, QB Stanford

2. 2.Washington

In an odd twist, scouts have randomly started taking pot shots at Robert Griffin III. It doesn’t really make sense. It’s not like Washington is going move away from him. RG3 might not have the polish that Luck has, but he could be the new prototype of NFL quarterbacks. He’s not quite the sure thing he’s being made out to be, but it’s hard to imagine this kid being unsuccessful.

The Pick: Robert Griffin III, QB Baylor

3. Minnesota

The twists and turns throughout the process this year have been unbelievable. Once upon a time I thought this was the true most straight forward pick in the draft. Next thing you know, Minnesota is trying to auction off the pick and there’s talk of Kalil dropping out of the top five. I don’t see how they get away from him. Their offensive line is a shell of what it was a couple of years ago. What good does drafting a corner or a wide out do if you can’t control the line of scrimmage? Some have criticized Kalil’s strength, but I don’t have much doubt he’ll develop.

The Pick: Matt Kalil, OT USC

4. Cleveland

Here we are again Cleveland. Can you believe that just a year ago, Colt McCoy was the scrappy QB everyone liked? Now Mike Holmgren is buttering everyone up to accept him again because after flubbing the RG3 trade-up scenario, McCoy is their best option. With Peyton Hillis gone and the jury still out on Greg Little, the most glaring needs are at the offensive skill positions. Justin Blackmon and Morris Claiborne are in the mix, but Trent Richardson has separated himself from the field. He is seen as the type of offensive cornerstone a team can build around. I think it’s tough using a position with such a short shelf life as a foundation. Why not trade back one or two slots and pick up an extra pick. Richardson looks like the one player people will trade up for, they’d still get Blackmon, and it would give them a total of three picks in the top forty to play with. I know, Richardson is “can’t miss”, but by the time Cleveland is able to fix their defense enough to contend, Richardson will be just about past his prime. The Browns in this Holmgren regime seem like they are always reacting instead of being proactive. They passed on an offensive beast in Julio Jones last year. They more than likely go vanilla here.

The Pick: Trent Richardson, RB Alabama

5. Tampa Bay

The Bucs focused on D last year and still have some work to do. I don’t think they can target anyone here besides Claiborne or Richardson. Rather than using up resources to trade up for Richardson, keep working on that D. Buy some Ronde Barber/Aqib Talib insurance. With Barber distracted looking for his AARP card in the mail and Talib looking over his shoulder for the long arm of the law (or the long arm of Goodell), Claiborne makes plenty of sense. Again, just because they need a RB, doesn’t mean they have to pull the trigger early. Claiborne isn’t electric like Patrick Peterson but he is more steady.

The Pick: Morris Claiborne, CB LSU

6. St. Louis

The downfall of the Rams picking Washington as a partner to trade down with is the massive cliff of talent drop-off after Claiborne comes off the board. It’s probably time to look for Steven Jackson’s heir, but it’s becoming clear Richardson isn’t making it past 3 or 4. That leaves Blackmon. They have a massive WR need, but this isn’t as much of a no brainer as you’d think. They have to decide: is he Crabtree or is he Green? I feel similar about him as I did Green last year. His hands aren’t quite as good, but overall Blackmon looks a tier below elite. He’s great on short to intermediate routes. His run after catch potential is huge and he can go deep but he’s not going to use speed to dominate (Note: Green definitely exceeded my expectations last year. We’ll see if he can keep it going).

The Pick: Justin Blackmon, WR Oklahoma State

7. Jacksonville

The top six players seem relatively solid, but this is where the “choose your own adventure” starts. It almost wouldn’t feel right if the Jaguars weren’t looking at defensive ends. Quinton Coples has the most physical talent but everyone picks apart his effort on tape. Melvin Ingram showed off his playmaking skills in college, but he’s a little undersized for a 4-3 DE. The Jaguars are desperately hoping to receive a phone call about their pick. The Vikings tried to hold an auction at 3 for teams to trade up for Tannehill but the bottom fell out of the market. Maybe 7 is more palatable for interested teams to trade up to? In the end, I think Miami gets jittery that someone will jump in front of them and they swap picks with The Jaguars.

The Pick: Ryan Tannehill, QB Texas A&M

8. Miami

One last note on Tannehill. This feels awfully early for him. Realistically, he’s not much worse of a prospect than Blaine Gabbert whom I had no problem with in this range last year. It just shows you how much better the top two QB’s are than anyone we’ve seen in recent memory.

Okay, so the Jaguars move back to this slot and are still looking for someone to take their pick. They might get a few nibbles, but I don’t think anyone pulls the trigger. Stuck at 8, the Jags will mull Ingram, but opt for what they think is the best player available at another position of need in Stephon Gilmore. He has been a fast riser. He has the size/speed combo GM’s crave in CB’s.

The Pick: Stephon Gilmore, CB South Carolina

9. Carolina

The Carolina Defense still has more than a few holes, but the place to start is defensive line. Dontari Poe vaulted his way up the draft board with his combine performance but I’m not sure he cracks the top ten. Quinton Coples is top ten talent with mid round attitude. Instead of gambling they can light a fire under his butt, they opt to solidify a greater need at DT. Fletcher Cox can provide the interior pass rush coaches crave. LB Luke Kuechly is the other guy to watch out for.

The Pick: Fletcher Cox, DT Mississippi State

10. Buffalo

Watch out for the stampede. There’s no more sitting by the lake and watching the league go by. It has actually been kind of nice seeing the Bills throw some elbows in free agency. They pulled the trigger on the big Mario Williams contract and all of a sudden their defensive line looks pretty formidable. If they don’t fall into the trap of getting too comfortable with their starters and neglecting depth they could make some noise up front this year. OT is the top need, but Riley Reiff’s stock has cooled and Buffalo has seemed reluctant in past years to take an OT high. How about some depth at LB to ensure they have plenty of missiles in the silo to cause havoc behind that big D-line?

The Pick: Luke Kuechly, LB Boston College

11. Kansas City

That sound you heard was the fist of K.C. GM Scott Pioli hitting the table as Kuechly came off the board. Past the ILB need, the chiefs could use some interior D-line help and additional reinforcements on the O-line. There isn’t a best player available that sticks out so it boils down to reach for Poe or reach for DeCastro. Despite Poe’s size, some still consider him best suited as a 4-3 DT because he plays like more of an interior gap rusher than a hole clogger. I’d like to see him fall to Seattle to see how he’d do in that role, but I don’t think K.C. can afford to pass him up. 342 lb men that can move are too hard to find. Scott Pioli has to draft him and hope Romeo Crennel can mold him.

The Pick: Dontari Poe, DT Memphis

12. Seattle

The Seahawks are hurting at linebacker and need to upgrade talent at defensive end. Kuechly is gone so Ingram and Coples become the favorites. I think things will start to go off the tracks here. Jerry Jones is sitting at 14 and thinks they can add a pass rusher opposite Demarcus Ware.

The Pick: Melvin Ingram, DE/OLB South Carolina

13. Arizona

The Cardinals would look at Ingram, but he’s gone. They could give Michael Floyd a look, but I think they pass in favor of trading down. This is where Mark Barron starts to become a hot commodity. I’m not sure who moves up here (San Diego?), but whoever it is, Mark Barron is their guy.

The Pick: Mark Barron, S Alabama

14. Dallas to Seattle

I’m just spit balling these trades of course, but this one worked out pretty nice for Seattle. They move down two slots, pick up an extra pick, and the players they were considering at 12 are still on the board. Quinton Coples looks like the obvious choice, but I think Pete Carroll gets cute and tries to load up on weapons for his young quarterback. I don’t think I’d touch Michael Floyd with a 10-foot pole with so much iffy behavior on his resume, but the lure of a #1 wideout mid way through the first round is too strong. They get the chance to actually sit down and talk with the kid. Maybe they’re comfortable with him.

The Pick: Michael Floyd, WR Notre Dame

15. Philadelphia

This is an interesting spot for the Eagles. All sorts of rumors are swirling. They are in love with Ryan Tannehill. They will make a move for a LT in the wake of the Jason Peters injury. Asante Samuel is on the trading block. Who knows what’s true. I think they’re more likely to draft D-line or try to move down. Unfortunately, the value of the 15^th slot is diminished with Gilmore and Barron off the board, and Coples doesn’t seem like the kind of guy anyone is going to go after. That said, he has immense talent and Philadelphia has never been shy about chasing DE talent.

The Pick: Quinton Coples, DE North Carolina

16. New York

The Jets trade up to take Ryan Tannehill?? Okay, not really but it has reached the point where you just expect that sort of thing from them. It’s almost like they get sucked further and further down the rabbit hole with every move they make. If they’re smart, they’ll ground themselves with a road-grading beast for their interior o-line. Mark Sanchez has “regressed” because their line has been worse each year he’s been in the league.

The Pick: David Decastro, G Stanford

17. Cincinnati

Alright Bengals fans. Now the fun starts. You have to hand it to the Bengals’ front office. They had some roster vulnerabilities heading into free agency and they took care of business. They’ve essentially leveled everything out to where they have a similar needs list, but all positions on it are neck and neck. Nothing is head and shoulders above the rest, but here’s how I rank it out along with which players could fill each respective void:

A. WR: Who’s the new #2? I would feel a lot better about receiver if I knew Jordan Shipley was healthy. If they draft a young guy now, he’ll be ready when they really need him in a couple of years.

This is listed as the top need, but it doesn’t necessarily have to be addressed in the first round. The WR class is deep and they just have to get some young talent in the pipeline. Remember, they need to develop a number 2 WR so it doesn’t have to be a home run. Michael Floyd scares me. Kendall Wright would probably make a pretty good WR2. Stephen Hill will be there if they want a burner. Alshon Jeffrey would give them a possession guy in the second or third. Brian Quick is a small school guy with a great size and speed combo. Ryan Broyles was once a first round prospect but will be available in the third because of injury. They have options.

B. CB: It’s hard to get off the field on third down if you can’t cover. The Bengals’ D always had a different dimension when Jonathan Joseph was healthy. If they draft a young corner now, the defense has a shot at peeking right about the time the offense hits its prime. That said, some combo of Jason Allen, Nate Clements, Terrence Newman, and Adam Jones to go with a recovering Leon Hall should be adequate for now. Whoever they pick doesn’t necessarily have to be in the first round.

Stephon Gilmore is the top hope here. Unfortunately he has gone from a late round 1 sleeper to a top ten ball of flames in a couple of weeks. Assuming he’s gone, they should look elsewhere and consider Kirkpatrick if he’s there at 21. .if they think he can keep his head on straight.

C. D-Rock: Next on the list isn’t a position, it’s a type of player. I don’t’ care if it’s a MLB or a safety but the defense needs a heart. That’s not to say they don’t have heart. That’s not to say they don’t have leaders. But one of the top weaknesses of the entire team is the tendency to give up 20+ yard runs. They need a consistent tackler that is always in the right place at the right time to keep things steady and in rhythm. That’s what you were supposed to be when they drafted you ninth overall Keith Rivers. Thanks buddy.

Kuechly and Barron are the top candidates in that role but they’ll have to move up to get either one. The only other guy I think fits that bill is Dont’a Hightower from Alabama. Everyone is projecting him to Pittsburgh at 24 so they might be able to get him at 21.

D. G: I have this listed as the fourth highest need, but I’m kind hoping for Decastro at 17 to be honest. I think the two free agent signings are more an indictment on the future of Clint Boling than they are an indication of whether or not they’ll take a guard in round 1. Who knows if one or both of those guys will pan out. If they can draft a starting caliber player and let everyone else fight it out for the starting spot on the other side, they’ll be in pretty good shape.

I think Decastro would really give them a lot of flexibility. They haven’t had a guard that can pull since Eric Steinbach left. As much as I didn’t like the guy, they have really missed that dimension from their offense. Cordy Glenn could be an option at 21. He’s more of a mauler than someone that slides down the line of scrimmage but he has G/OT flexibility. If the opt elsewhere in the first, there is depth they can chase later on.

So where do they go here? My wish list is Gilmore, Barron, Decastro in that order. All three are gone here. Next you start looking at whether anyone of value fell into their laps like Coples, Poe, or (it pains me to say it) Floyd. Again, in this mock the answer is no, no, and no. The two guys that sort of fall in that category are Reiff and Michael Brockers (DT, LSU). OT doesn’t seem to make sense. I wouldn’t be totally upset with Brockers. He has a high ceiling. If they don’t like him, I say go with the D-Rock! Hightower is a 265 lb guy that can move. He just seems like a Marvin Lewis pick.

The Pick : Dont’a Hightower, MLB Alabama

Okay!..Running out of time. It’s time for turbo mode…

18. San Diego

I will hedge this pick as a possible landing spot for Arizona in a trade down scenario. However, both the Chargers and the Cardinals would be interested in an athletic DE/OLB type with a long frame like Syracuse’s Chandler Jones.

The Pick: Chandler Jones, DE Syracuse

19. Chicago

The Bears still have weaknesses on the O-Line and once again a pretty good OT has fallen right into their lap. Plug Reiff in on the right side and all of a sudden a positional need that has been a thorn in their side starts to look pretty promising.

The Pick: Riley Reiff, OT Iowa

20. Tennessee

Corner is a heavy need. I’m not sure they can look away from Kirkpatrick.

The Pick: Dre Kirkpatrick, CB Alabama

21. Cincinnati

The Bengals are back on the clock. They missed out on their corner, but it’s not the end of the world. Another opportunity presents itself. They toyed with Brockers at 17 and somehow he’s still available. I think this has trade down written all over it. Denver is aching for a DT.
The Pick: Michael Brockers, DT LSU

22. Cleveland

A lot of people are assuming Brandon Weeden is the guy here. I think they might roll the dice and hope they can get him in the second round. Instead, they take a crack at finally filling that RT need.

The Pick: Cordy Glenn, OT/G Georgia

23. Detroit

The Lions would have liked to have nabbed Glenn, but they just barely missed out. I think Jonathan Martin is a little underrated right now.

The Pick: Johnathan Martin, OT Stanford

24. Pittsburgh

With Hightower off the board, the run on offensive tackles continues.

The Pick: Bobby Massie, OT Mississippi

25. Denver

After the trade down, the Bengals are back up! Glenn is gone, but all of the WR’s are still on the board. The other guy in play here is Notre Dame safety Harrison Smith. He is a good all around player that also fits the D-Rock role. Whether they take him depends on how they feel about Taylor Mays. I’d rather see them take Smith, but they probably have trouble getting away from WR here. The height/speed combo of Stephen Hill is hard to resist.

The Pick: Stephen Hill, WR Georgia Tech

26. Houston

Houston will look at Kendall Wright, but won’t be able to resist the athleticism of Coby Fleener.

The Pick: Coby Fleener, TE Stanford

27. New England

The Patriots finally pull the trigger on the OLB they’ve avoided drafting for years.

The Pick: Shea McClellin, OLB Boise St.

28. Green Bay

The Pack just miss out on McClellin, but take the next guy at OLB on their list.

The Pick: Nick Perry, DE/OLB USC

29. Baltimore

The ravens lost multiple safeties in free agency and Ed Reed can’t have much more in the tank.

The Pick: Harrison Smith, S Notre Dame

30. San Francisco

The 49ers went heavy at WR in free agency. They decide to add one more.

The Pick: Kendall Wright, WR Baylor

31. New England

With most of the value dried out, look for the usual New England trade down. It will be interesting to see who moves back in to the first round here and what player they are targeting. My bet is on Weeden, G Kevin Zeitler, or center Peter Konz.

The Pick: Brandon Weeden, QB Oklahoma State

32. New York

The Giants luck into the exact player they need: a hard-nosed workhorse running back.

The Pick: Doug Martin, RB Boise St.

That’s all folks. Happy Draft Day!

2012 Mock 10 + 7: Part 2 and More

2. Robert Griffin III

RG3 is up second and he’ll be choosing between the Browns, Redskins, Dolphins, and Seahawks. Okay, they probably won’t actually let Griffin pick his helmet, but the more you hear him in interviews you get the feeling he just might be able to talk Goodell into it. Even if the commissioner holds strong against the mighty persuasion of RG3, this was still a pretty unique situation where Griffin was penciled into the #2 slot and all the mock drafters were speculating on who would trade up to grab him.

It’s similar to 1998 in the (go figure) Peyton Manning / Ryan Leaf draft where Arizona was sitting at 2, but they already had a young QB they liked in Jake Plummer (not a terrible comparison to Sam Bradford maybe?). San Diego wound up sliding up from three to two to take Leaf. Who would pull the trigger this year and how high of a price would they pay? Despite being a more interesting debate, discussion on which bold bidder would win out this time around was overshadowed by Peyton Manning’s Indianapolis funeral and subsequent free-agency. Unfortunately, before the RG3 story had a chance to rebound and really simmer into a dicey auction, the news broke that Washington had struck a deal for the pick. With teams dueling each other over the next few weeks while weighing the value of taking RG3 vs. the value of their franchise’s resources over the next two to three years, it would have been fun to watch. If St. Louis could have strung it out to mid April, the thing would have been a powder keg. Who knows how high the price would have gone?

So if you’re the Rams, why pull the trigger now? The key was to keep enough bidders in the game for as long as possible. With free agency on the horizon, the main risk was the potential for the list of buyers to thin out. If Cleveland and Miami filled their QB voids with Matt Flynn and Peyton Manning, the value of the Rams’ pick would have dropped. The Redskins shrewdly stepped up to the plate and closed the deal. Rather than gamble, St. Louis decided to play it safe with what was already on the table.

The final price ended up at Washington’s first and second round picks along with their firsts in both 2013 and 2014. The move puts St. Louis in the favorable position of being able to trickle high-end prospects onto their roster over the next three drafts. It is a fair price, but the interesting debate becomes whether it would have been better to take half the value to trade away Bradford and keep the number 2 pick. My head tells me to keep Bradford. The current model in the NFL is to build your team around a quarterback that is more ship captain than rocket man. It’s the whole Michael Vick debate all over again. Do you want a guy with a steady hand capable of navigating your franchise to its final destination or do you want a guy that’s strapped to the front of a rocket that could take you to Mars if you’re lucky? The rocket man thing has never worked. The rocket always fizzles out or crashes into the Atlantic leaving the respective franchise stranded. But what if Griffin is a new prototype? He’s like the rocket man in a shiny new spacesuit who just might be able to harness all that energy to go somewhere that no one’s ever been before. I’d go as far as to call him Michael Vick 2.0. It’s as if someone said, "Alright Vick is a little too short, and he doesn’t have great character. Let’s re-make him taller.. and oh yeah, we’ll make him a good guy with a magnetic personality." I’ve bounced back and forth on this one to tell you the truth. Both Bradford and Griffin have injury concerns. Bradford could still be pretty good. Griffin could be great. It’s not like the Rams are all that deep into the Bradford era. Starting over wouldn’t be that big of a setback. It all boils down to what compensation they could have commanded in a Bradford trade. If it were me and someone offered a 2, a 3, and next year's 1 to go with being able to keep the number 2 pick to draft Griffin, I’d have a hard time walking away. Regardless, it’s a moot point.

The pick: Washington Redskins

Manning the Rockies?

I was only modestly interested in Manning’s free agency until Denver emerged as the favorite and it got interesting. Who woulda thunk it: Tebowmania, one of the most exciting sports stories of last year, scuttled by Peyton Manning...potentially. If Manning inks with the Broncos, the story immediately shifts to Tebow: will he stay or will he go? When the news of Denver’s pursuit of Manning broke, the battle lines that had faded since the end of the season precipitated out of thin air into another boisterous argument. Followers of the book of Tim quickly came out against any courtship of Manning while the nonbelievers applauded, “great move, sign Manning and ship Tebow to Jacksonville.” In this case, both parties are wrong.

It’s funny because the root of the massive canyon separating the two sides of the debate all last fall was the exact opposite. Back then, the back and forth raged on and on because both sides were right. "Tebow is a Winner." It was the popular, lazy way of touting Tebow’s leadership skills. As painful as it was (kind of like the pain of listening to Sarah Palin back John McCain by calling him a maverick seven times per debate response) there’s no denying the guy has something special. He was terrible at his job over and over again, yet he kept pulling success out of nowhere. Did he catch some breaks? Absolutely, but it wasn’t all luck. There’s no question he made his teammates better. He brought Willis McGahee back from the dead. Before last year, Matt Prater was an inconsistent kicker with a big leg. Tebow took over and the guy turned into a cold-blooded assassin that could kick a football through the moon.

The other side clamored, “Tebow can’t play quarterback. Look at the numbers. He’s never going to be Tom Brady.” Numbers don’t always tell the whole story, but it’s hard to dispute the bulk of Tebow’s play could be characterized as ineffective at best. To think that someone could transform his skill set in the matter of a few years to an elite level is hard to imagine (more on that in a second).

Now, here we are again and the two sides have polarized around:

Option 1: How dare you take the keys to the car away from Timmy Rah Rah??

AND

Option 2: Huzzahh for Manning to Denver. Ship Tebow out of town. Ship him off to Siberia if you can.

C’mon, not only can Denver keep Tebow, they should keep Tebow...but only if they can lure Manning to town. There’s no denying Tebow isn’t ready right now. If they run him back out there next year, he’s done. People are going to expect him to improve more than humanly possible. They’re going to have to run the same gimmicky offense. He’s going to get dinged up, and Tebowmania will never quite gain steam again. That’s where Manning comes in. He’s the one guy with enough clout to come in and replace Tebow without causing a revolution, and it buys Tebow one to three years to prepare without the scrutiny of having his inevitable growing pains broadcast as failure on national television. The key thing here is, Tebow doesn’t need to be Tom Brady. He has something no one else has. Brady is an elite leader; maybe one of the greatest of all time. He couldn’t lead Tim Tebow’s underwear. If Tebow is able to develop average to slightly above average quarterback skills (think Jason Campbell/ Kyle Orton not Brady/Brees) he’s going to turn the Broncos into a contender because his charisma is so far off the charts. TEBOW NEEDS TIME.

On the flip side, all you hear is how much Tebow and Manning wouldn’t be able to coexist. “What if Manning has a bad game and all the Tebow fans jump on his back?” I don’t think Peyton Manning gives a crap. Say he throws three picks against the Chiefs. He’ll shrug, "Yep, I had a bad game. Cute billboard...I’m gonna go torch the Raiders." There’s nothing quite like a jilted superstar. I think he’s going to be on a mission and he’s going to plow through everything in his path. I am even kind of hoping he starts showing a little more edge to his personality. It would almost be refreshing in a Hulk Hogan turns heel after 20 years of being the good guy kind of way. I’m not worried about fans affecting Manning.

The point has also been made that Tebow has to go in the wake of a Manning signing because Tebow wouldn’t make a very good backup quarterback to the kind of offense that Manning will be running. Are they kidding? I think he is the perfect backup for any offense. If a starting QB goes down, there are very few teams that are going to be able to plug in the backup and not see a drop off. When it happens, the team is just catching lightning in a bottle from an unproven guy a-la Tom Brady’s ascension. The backup’s job is to keep the season afloat for a two to four game emergency stretch if something bad happens. In that sense, running QB’s are the best backups. Teams that have prepared for Manning will have trouble adjusting to a 240 lb QB running it down their throats. Why try to emulate Manning as your backup. Throw Tebow in there. He’ll get everybody excited. He’ll win a game or two. Heck, he might even make the playoffs and upset the Steelers. What more do you want?

The Manning carrousel is still spinning. Who knows where it will stop? Denver and Tennessee are the favorites right now and San Francisco just might sneak in as a dark horse. Here’s to hoping for Denver as the landing spot. If nothing else it would feed a few more blog posts. Happy free agency everyone. Trades are going down. Players are signing. College pro-day workouts are coming up. I will get back to my mock draft one of these days. I promise.

Mock 10 + 7... Part 1

The 2012 combine is in the books. Players will still jockey for position at their pro days and team needs will shuffle throughout free agency but here’s a breakdown of how the top ten might play out. With the Bengals picking 17, I’ll even run through 11-17 for good measure.

1. Indianapolis

The Manning saga is still in full swing, but whatever happens, everyone seems to be on the same page that Andrew Luck is still Indianapolis bound. It’s the right move for Indy. There’s too much risk to stick with Manning, and Luck is the best QB prospect since…well, he’s the best I’ve seen. That only covers the last ten years or so where I was really in tune with things, but the point is, he’s too good to pass up. People have thrown out Elway comparisons. Elway’s days as a draft prospect predate my vantage point, but I don’t think Luck’s arm strength is quite in the same league as Elway’s. Luck’s arm is strong enough though, and I don’t think he really has any weaknesses anywhere else. Usually analysts will talk about prospects having a high ceiling or a low floor, but I don’t think I’ve ever heard of anyone having both. Luck is that guy. If he’s great you could have an all-timer. If not, you probably still have a serviceable QB.

Ironically, despite all that, it feels like people have cooled on Luck. Have scouts uncovered some subtle flaw in his game? Did GMs interviewing him notice a crazed facial tick that calls into question his mental stability? Nope and nope. The hype surrounding him just went too far. Sports media has foamed over on this kid to the point that the best draft prospect in a quarter century has become overrated. Luck is fine. Now that everyone realizes he isn’t going to come into the league and immediately start pooping out Lombardi trophies, the buzz has died down a little.

Luck going number one is a big story, but as most everyone has been latched onto for the last few months, it is secondary to an even bigger story: the game of chicken between Colts owner Jim Irsay and Peyton Manning. The general media focus has been locked in on when the conclusion to the standoff will occur and where Manning’s eventual landing spot will be. In fact, some people are incredulous that nothing has happened yet. Why can’t these guys sit down and figure this out? Why is this dragging out? Because it’s in Irsay’s best interest to drag it out. First of all, what if Andrew Luck falls off a roller coaster tomorrow and breaks every bone in his body? Peyton Manning is a pretty decent back-up plan. Second of all, Manning is an asset. Irsay is right to not give up his asset until he’s absolutely sure he can’t get anything back in return for him. That doesn’t happen until March 8.

That said, the real question we’re glossing over is whether Indianapolis can leverage the situation into any compensation. The Colts can’t trade Manning without paying him a $28 million bonus unless Manning agrees to restructure his contract. Some have rightfully made the point there’s no way Manning will restructure to allow the Colts to pry valuable picks/players away from his future team. Therefore, the whole thing becomes a matter of whether Indy can pay the bonus and make the salary cap structure work. If they can swing it, they should do it even if they have to suffer in the short term. I don’t care if they have to dig the copper pipes out of their brand new stadium to raise money. Otherwise, they’ll be four years into Luck’s career before they get around to bringing in high end receiving targets that will take three more years to develop. If Daniel Snyder calls them up and offers two first rounders and $10 million - done. Pay Manning his money and sort everything else out later.

Here’s another angle. Irsay doesn’t want to oust Manning. What if he doesn’t? Luck is the more valuable player right now anyway. What if the Colts put all their money on “18” and spin the wheel. I wouldn’t do it. It would be insane. But let’s say Cleveland picks up the phone and offers their entire 2012 draft and their 2013 first rounder. If you’re counting, that’s three first round picks including the number four pick this year. All of a sudden Indianapolis has Manning throwing to Justin Blackmon for the next three years while they dump the rest of their drafts (yes, they would have so many picks I say drafts as in plural) into offensive and defensive line talent and a developmental QB. When a guy like Luck falls into your lap you’d be crazy to pass him up. Then again, have you read any of Irsay’s tweets? The guy is a little off. If Manning steps on a field on March 7^th for a workout and starts slinging the ball around the field like it’s 1999…watch out. Irsay could send shockwaves through the league.

Okay, I burned a page and a half up on what happens to be one of the most straight forward picks possible. If I’m not careful, Manning will be house hunting in Phoenix before I get this thing posted. So here’s part one, and I fill you in on the rest in part 2…and maybe part 3. Who knows?

The Perfect Outcome

Well, we made it through Super Bowl week. I don’t know about you all, but I’m not sure I could have hung on much longer. If I hear the words “Gronk” (stop calling him “Gronk”! You’re not his buddy. You’re not his teammate. If you were a fan of the team I’d still frown on it, but you’re not. You’re a radio host.. or a Sports Center anchor.. or a weather man.. or whatever. Come on.), “nerve regeneration”, or “that Giants defensive line” one more time I think my head is going to pop. Anyway, on to more important things. It’s time to frame up the year of the Cincinnati Bengals and peek forward to 2012.

Crash and Burn?

It’s easy to come off a big loss like the Bengals season ender last month and feel disappointed. I had a hard time not grinding my teeth as it played out. The two teams traded punches then Cincy took a huge blow to the body with that improbable interception for a TD at the end of the first half. They tried to fight through it, but the damage was done. The Bengals felt the immense playoff pressure in the second half and they cracked. It was miserable. Nonetheless, step back. Take solace. I argue the end of the year could not have played out any better.

When the Bengals first made the playoffs I was disappointed. I thought there would have been psychological value to beating Baltimore to earn a playoff berth. The momentous victory would have put the team on the map and laid the foundation for being able to step into the ring with the big boys next year as a contender. Instead, at 0-7 for the year against playoff teams, Cincy remained the Scrappy Doo of the league. To top it off they somehow still managed to back their way into the postseason. The way I figured it, making the playoffs was a burden more than anything. It meant losing draft position and being forced to play another game when a major injury to key players such as Andy Dalton, A.J. Green, Andrew Whitworth, Andre Smith, Carlos Dunlap, Geno Atkins, or Domata Peko would have been a major blow to their 2012 campaign (note: as a lifelong Bengals fan, I went into wild card weekend considering a Green blown out knee in week 18 to be a foregone conclusion). Mike Brown had a greater chance of winning the lottery without buying a ticket than the Bengals had of navigating their way through the playoffs this season. Without the benefit of a notch in their belt from a big win like week 17 vs. Baltimore, what was the point of getting in?

As it turns out, I was wrong. The Bengals may not have had a shot of doing damage in this year’s postseason, but as I watched the game unfold it became clear that the league’s third youngest roster benefited greatly from the game of playoff experience. Better yet, a game of road playoff experience is just what they needed. The environment was hostile. The pressure was massive. The Bengals faltered. They were beaten soundly by a team they had already proven they could compete against after having dominated for three quarters against the Texans earlier in the year. If this group of players is fortunate enough to make the playoffs again, maybe next time they don’t blink. Maybe next time they maintain composure for 60 minutes. Maybe next time, they’ll be ready.

As a bonus, despite my eternal pessimism the price tag of playing the extra game turned out to be pretty reasonable. Cincy suffered no major injuries and dropped only one slot of draft position (the icing on the cake was Denver upsetting Pittsburgh, dropping the Broncos down and moving the Bengals up). Now that the dust has settled, 2011 might not have had a fairy tale ending for Bengals fans, but it did close with one more step forward in a season of progress. Next up, the Cincinnati front office will look to keep the momentum going in the draft.

Mid Round 1 Muddy Waters

Before we break down the Bengals’ roster weaknesses and highlight which prospects they might try to snag with their first round draft picks, let’s get a feel for the 2012 draft landscape. This year’s draft class is officially locked in. The headlines have centered around quarterbacks Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III, but how is the rest of the field shaping up? At first glance, I think this year’s class looks relatively average, but it might turn out to be sneaky good. Quite a few well-known players elected to return to school taking away some star power (notably quarterbacks Matt Barkley of USC and Landry Jones of Oklahoma) and some depth (players like Notre Dame’s Monti Te’o, ILB and Georgia’s Jarvis Jones, OLB/DE) from the talent pool. What’s left is a solid top 10 or 12, a few clear-cut second tier players, and an all out scrum for positioning in the back half of the first round. That’s not to say there won’t be great players taken outside the top 15 (there always are), but the hierarchy is mushy at this point. Maybe it firms up and maybe it doesn’t, but right now I think you might see a lot of fluidity between picks 20 and 40 as teams slide around trying pick up what think is good value.

Position-wise, there is a stark contrast between the 2012 and 2011 crops. Defensive line has been the meat of the previous two drafts and offensive line talent has been watered down. This year, the first round will be offensive-line-heavy led by the first elite-level OT prospect since Jake Long, Matt Kalil (USC), while the defensive line crop lacks high-end talent. Last year the quarterback class was a jumble. It took Cam Newton until April to emerge as the favorite for the number one pick and even then he had plenty of detractors. Conversely, Luck’s name has been written in pen at the top of the first round for the last six months and people are already starting to pencil in RG3 at number 2. In 2011, hybrid DE/OLB Von Miller was the only round 1 linebacker selected. This year you’ll see two to four true linebackers and at least two hybrids. Running back was an after thought last year with Heisman trophy winner Mark Ingram more or less sneaking into the bottom of the first round, but this year Trent Richardson (Alabama) should return RB talent back to the top half of the first round and there could be two to three backs total taken on day 1. Overall, it’s safe to say the draft script has flipped significantly for 2012. How does this all shake out for the Bengals? Having secured Oakland’s first round pick in the Carson Palmer trade, Cincinnati is sitting with the 17 and 21 overall picks. The talent plateau through the middle of the first round might make it seem like a bad year to have two mid-round one picks, but I think they have a pretty good chance to plug some holes. Time to frame up my wish list for the Bengals’ roster and outline which prospects might land in Cincinnati.

Still Room for Improvement

Top to bottom, the Bengals roster is in better shape than it has been in decades. However, this is a crucial offseason that could set the franchise up for something great or flush them back to mediocrity. With free-agency pending, it’s hard to get into too much player personnel detail, but here are my thoughts on where the team is at on both sides of the ball and what directions they might go in the first round of the draft.

Offense:

First, let’s cross off a few positions as options in round 1. Andy Dalton exceeded expectations this year. How good can he be? Some would argue the ceiling is low. I don’t think he is a “carry the team on his shoulders” kind of guy, but he’s good enough. Scratch quarterback off the list. Ditto on offensive tackle. Free agency might leave some voids in the backup tackle slots on the depth chart, but barring injury the Bengals are set with their starters. I’m good with Kyle Cook at center, and tight end won’t draw any first round consideration either. Now things get a little more serious…

RB
A lot of people are talking about a need for Cincinnati to upgrade at running back. In fact, multiple mock drafts have the Bengals opting for the big play potential of Lamar Miller (Miami) or David Wilson (Virginia Tech) with one of their two picks. Myself, I’d be okay if they went into next season with the same stable of players they have right now. If Benson doesn’t come back, take a shot with a third or fourth rounder, but I’d rather see them fill other needs in round 1.

WR
The Bengals hit it big with WR in round one in 2011, so it’s an unlikely direction this year right? Oh wait, Jordan Shipley is coming off a torn Achilles, Jerome Simpson is in legal trouble, and Andre Caldwell still just looks so-so. All of a sudden, picking a running mate for Green doesn’t look half bad, and 21 might be just about the right slot for Alshon Jeffrey (South Carolina), Kendall Wright (Baylor), or Michael Floyd (Notre Dame). I’m not ready to call WR a need yet, but keep an eye on how things play out. If there’s no value at other positions, it just might be the right thing to do.

G
For the second year running, I’d say guard tops out Cincy’s needs list. How many third and one plays did the Bengals fail to convert last year? The power run game was iffy, and they saw nothing but pressure up the middle on passing downs. Tell Nate Livings to Geaux back to Louisiana, start planning Bobbie Williams’ retirement party, and let’s start over. David DeCastro (Standford) would be outstanding. Unfortunately, he’s generating a little too much buzz right now and is getting projected in the 13 to 15 range. This is where the little things hurt like Matt Barkley staying in school. It bumps everyone else up one more slot. Luckily, Cordy Glenn (Georgia) might be a decent consolation prize. If Clint Boling develops, maybe they go with a tandem of Ga. guards heading into 2012.

The offense has rebounded from the collapse of the Palmer/Ocho era faster than most expected, but to keep things rolling in the right direction they need to look at interior offensive lineman in the early rounds and scour for RB’s and WR’s later on.

Defense:

D-Line
Much like other positions, free agency might chip away defensive line depth, but I don’t think defensive end is in play in round 1. Frostee Rucker and Jonathan Fanene are great rotational guys, but can they keep both? If Dunlap stays healthy and has another positive off season, they should be good to go. The emergence of Atkins was huge this year and probably pushes DT out of round one consideration. If I were Cincinnati, I’d try to bring Pat Sims back. He brings grit to the line and makes for about as good of Peko insurance as you could ask for.

LB
I have linebacker as another position towards the top of the needs list. It wouldn’t be the end of the world if they ended up with the same crew, but to take Cincinnati’s defensive unit to the next level an upgrade is needed. Will Manny Lawson be back? Can Rey Maualuga be more consistent (not to mention avoid suspension)? Boston College’s Luke Kuechly would be a great fit, but he should be gone before the Bengals get a shot at him. It might not be a bad idea for Bengals fans to start getting familiar with Vontaze Burfict (Arizona State). People are all over the map on the guy right now, but he’s an electric hitter with good range. Some say he’s a top 20 talent downgraded because of maturity and mental make-up issues (sounds like a Bengal to me). Some say he has matured. Some question whether he deserves first round consideration because they think he just doesn’t get “it” and doubt his speed. If he displays NFL athleticism at the combine, watch out. UNC’s Zach Brown is another guy to keep an eye on. He’d have to work his way up the draft board a little to be in the round 1 mix for Cincy, but supposedly he can fly.

CB
Cornerback is also a spot drawing Bengal-related mock draft attention. The Bengals were thin at the position even before Leon Hall went down last year. How will Hall come back from a torn Achilles (just the thought of having that injury and then trying to backpedal, plant and then drive forward to break up a pass makes my heel throb. Keep your fingers crossed)? I liked the way Nate Clements played down the stretch last year, but does he have another year left in him? Do they try to bring Adam Jones and/or Kelly Jennings back? They need at least one young corner on the roster from this draft, but I don’t know if the value will be right in the first round. Alfonzo Dennard (Nebraska) initially was mentioned in this area, but he’s a little undersized and showed some weaknesses at the Senior Bowl. I’d be surprised if he ends up in the first round. Janoris Jenkins is another name that has come up. Where I wouldn’t mind seeing them gamble on Burfict if they’re comfortable with his attitude, Jenkins scares me to death. He’s ultra talented, but with two drug arrests under his belt already his reliability is a major question mark. The real question is whether the Bengals will get a crack at the number-two-rated corner, Dre Kirkpatrick (Alabama). Initially people were projecting him much higher, but the pass rushers have started to move up the board and he has fallen off. Kirkpatrick is 6’2” with long arms to jam receivers and shed blockers in run support. Said to have only adequate speed, he isn’t necessarily a lockdown guy and sometimes has trouble with quick receivers. He kind of sounds like a bigger, flashier version of Leon Hall who interestingly enough slipped to the Bengals when they were picking eighteenth in ’07. Hopefully history repeats itself, but in the seventeenth slot instead this year.

S
Safety sort of runs parallel to linebacker in terms of needs for the Bengals. If they want the D to be great, they need to upgrade. The current starters have their moments but overall they’re pretty average to below average. Free-agency could send the talent level at the position from a state of caution yellow to code red. I’d think they’d look to add two safeties in free-agency and one with a pretty good chance to make the roster (rounds 1 through 4) in the draft. The only guy definitely in first round consideration is Alabama’s Mark Barron. Early projections have him going in the 15 to 18 range with the most common suitor being the Jets who happen to have just watched their defense lose steam down the stretch two years in a row after season ending injuries to safety Jim Leonhard. Unfortunately, New York happens to be picking at 16 right in front of Cincinnati. The other fly in the ointment is the hernia injury Barron is currently recovering from that will limit his workouts prior to draft day. On the bright side this might scare off safety needy teams like the Cowboys and the Jets and slide Barron safely into the 17 to 21 range. Maybe the injury even slides Barron down past the Bengals. It’s hard to say at this point, but I still have him on my wish list.

The Bengals D took advantage of some blossoming youth and a weak schedule to vault to a top ten ranking in 2011. Unfortunately, they still have a penchant for giving up big plays and looking overwhelmed against higher end offenses. To sure things up, they have to be a little more sure-handed at linebacker and safety and they need some young talent in the pipeline at corner.

If you’re keeping score, pre-free agency I have Cincy’s needs list as guard, corner, safety, and linebacker with the caveat they should be on the lookout for value at WR and RB. That said, there isn’t much separating CB, S, and LB. Good corners are hardest to find and take the longest to develop so I think CB takes precedence (especially if they get a shot at Kirkpatrick). A heady player with a lot of range to cut down on the long runs is what the back 7 really needs. I don’t care if it’s an OLB, MLB, or S, they need a tackling machine to anchor the unit. That’s all for now. The combine kicks off this week. If you’re a Bengals fan, keep an out for DeCastro (G), Kirkpatrick (CB), Glenn (G), and Burfict (MLB). I’ll try to check back in in March to break down how things are shaping up.

That's All Folks

The NFL regular season is complete and it has been a wild year on many levels. For starters, I can’t remember a season shaped quite so heavily by trips to the injured reserve. It started early with the Peyton Manning saga and kept right on going with hamstrings and achilles tendons popping like jiffy pop on asphalt in the Sahara desert. You could probably field a pro bowl squad with the guys that missed significant time this year. Possibly most significant was the quarterback casualties. Part way through the year, it looked like Chicago and Houston were poised to threaten the offensive juggernauts of the league with the well-rounded team approach before Cutler and Schaub bit the dust. After that it was open season for Rodgers and Brees, and the season handicapped by tough luck on the injury front just sort of played out. It’s ironic that a year with such historic offensive performances could be nominally characterized as mediocre. Think about it. Green Bay offense: 9.8. New Orleans Offense: 10.0. Patriots offense: 9.0. Name one other great unit in the league this year. San Francisco defense maybe? I don’t know. Everyone else that wasn’t awful seemed like a weird blend of streakiness that beat up on lesser teams headed up by the awkward, polarizing, sensational, absurd 8-game run of Tebowmania (for the record, I’m surprised that spell check doesn’t recognize Tebowmania).

That is the 2011 season in a nut shell, so without further ado - on to my annual playoff preview. I’m a little late on this so hopefully you catch it before the weekend plays out. If not, maybe you’ll humor me and give it a quick read next week to see how I did.

The NFC

The NFC leads the way with Green Bay and New Orleans firmly at the top of everyone’s power rankings and San Francisco lurking as an under the radar dark horse to make a run at the title. Note: if college football ruled the world there’d be no games for four weeks before the Saints and Packers lined up in a rematch for all the marbles (and of course the other teams would play each other in over-hyped, meaningless exhibition games. That wacky Patriots offense would take on the blue-collar 49ers. Don’t worry Cowboys and Jets, you’ll get in too. Your fans will travel). Thankfully, instead we’ll get NO and SF battling it out in a win or go home grudge match for a crack at the defending champs (seriously college football, wake up).

It will be interesting to track the Saints over the next few weeks. They are probably playing better than anyone but have the toughest road of the contenders. After they out-sprint the Lions, they head outdoors against the one team built to take them down. If they manage to eek out a win over the 49ers, they head to Lambeau field for a chilly shootout with the Pack. I’m not sure they can navigate that yoyo. The Giants/Falcons game could be the closest match-up of the early games but neither (I’ll say Atlanta exploits New York’s shaky secondary) could survive against Green Bay. In week two, San Francisco manages to stop the unstoppable and heads to Green Bay with another large chip on their shoulder (coyly cemented into place by Coach of the Year Jim Harbaugh). I think they give the champs a run for their money but lose in a nail-biter to Rodgers in crunch time. Green Bay punches their ticket to Indianapolis.

The AFC

On the other side of the bracket, I don’t know if Pittsburgh has enough left in the tank to make a run. Their defense is healthy enough to squeak past Denver, but the Patriots will put Big Ben and company out of their misery in the second round. The Steelers title hopes wilted when they missed out on the bye. Winning four straight playoff games is too much for them right now. New England vs. Baltimore will be interesting, but Torrey Smith and Ray Rice seem like a favorable match-up against the Pats’ flawed defense. The Baltimore D does just enough and the Ravens squirt into the Super Bowl by what seems like default.

The Super Bowl

Green Bay is banged up on the offensive line but I don’t know if this could have played out better for them. Like the Patriots, they give up points on D, but they at least have more than a JV secondary. The Ravens can’t hang and the Packers are your repeat champions. It’s hard to do, but general manager Ted Thompson has built a roster capable of winning back-to-back titles. That’s all for now. Keep an eye out for a preview of the draft landscape. The draft order is solidifying and I am getting pumped!