Well, it’s been a busy summer. Unfortunately, that means I’m behind on my blog posts. Here are some thoughts from around the league for kickoff weekend…
Free Agent Frenzy
Despite the nauseating display of greed and entitlement, the one bright spot to come out of the lockout was an entire offseason furiously crammed into a month and a half. Here a few thoughts from around the league…
Kolb Shipped Cross Country
The Eagles sold high on Kevin Kolb landing an above average CB and a second round draft pick from Arizona. Most people seemed to chalk up the win for Philly in this trade. They raked in great value for an unproven player, but I think long-term the Eagles front office made a mistake. As soon as last season ended, the chatter started. Kolb wants a chance to start. Will the Eagles hold him hostage? Where should Philly trade Kolb? Eventually, Arizona struck the deal and Kolb headed to the desert. The whole time the saga unfolded, I thought to myself, “TRADE VICK. TRADE HIM RIGHT NOW”. The Eagles did an amazing job maneuvering out of the Donavan McNabb era. They handed over the car keys to Kolb. When the injury bug bit, Michael Vick stepped in and ripped off an electrifying season where he proved once again to be a difference maker that could single handedly take over football games. That is fantastic. Intoxicating even. I don’t care. SELL, SELL, SELL! Cash out, while the value is high. The guy is a meteorite. He has 1.5 to 2 years left on his prime, and anyone who thinks he will be able to keep this level of production up as his athletic skills start to erode is looking at this with tunnel vision. Would they have taken heat for walking away from the chance to see what would happen in a full year with Vick at the helm? Absolutely, but you have to take the emotion out of it. The team is built around Kolb. Kolb would give them a 5 to 7 year window. Their current arsenal of offensive weapons should hold up for another 4 to 6 years with time to add more pieces between now and then. The offensive line needs rebuilt (again). The defense is still at least two years away. The defensive line has to mature. They need linebackers. Is there anyone in the country that would bet on Vick playing the whole season? Yet, they opted to push all their chips onto the table for the 2011 season instead of letting it ride on Kolb + whatever resources they could have swindled out of some poor sucker trying to catch a lightning bolt that has already flashed.
Manning Issues
Peyton Manning has had another neck surgery and will likely miss the whole season. I can’t believe this story took so long to play out. The guy had surgery on his neck. As he was rehabbing, stories detailed how the nerves in Manning’s neck needed to regenerate. There were no reports on any major progress or about how close he was to coming back. Clearly he wasn’t going to be ready to take hits from linebackers in September or any time this fall. I wish I would have posted something earlier because now that more information is out I probably sound like revisionist history guy, but c’mon people. Some people are still debating whether or not he is going to come back this year. Seriously? Shut it down. Try to salvage the tail end of his career next year.
With Manning out, the outlook in Indy is bleak. Some are contending this is still going to be a .500 level team, but I don’t see it. Manning has hidden a lot of warts the last four years and they’re all going to show. The offensive line has been below average since Tarik Glenn left. The running game, the receiving personnel, the defense, even the coaching staff: it’s all built based on having Manning under center. Without him, they are in the bottom five tier of the league. You want to talk about interesting, what would Indy do with the number 1 draft pick next year?
2011 Season Rundown:
AFC North:
- Pittsburgh – 11 wins
- Baltimore – 8 wins
- Cleveland – 6 to 7 wins
- Cincinnati – 6 to 7 wins
This is how most people have it shaking out. However, I think Baltimore falters, Cleveland fails to take the next step, Cincy surprises some people, and all three teams end up with 6 to 8 wins. It’s hard to go two years in a row, but Pittsburgh looks like a Super Bowl Contender.
AFC South:
- Houston – 10 wins
- Tennessee - 9 wins
- Jacksonville- 5 wins
- Indianapolis – 2 wins
It’s do or die for Houston. I say they come out of the gate fast and fade down the stretch. The Titans have a better season than expected, but get edged out for the division title. The Jags once again go to the well of cutting their starting QB a week before the season. Weird. Andrew Luck to Indy? Go figure.
AFC East:
- New England – 12 wins
- New York – 9 wins
- Miami – 8 wins
- Buffalo – 6 wins
New England looks like they could get more support from their defense this year. Could be scary. The Jets D is a little overrated and I can’t say I see their offense taking a big step forward. Miami’s D is underrated and surely their offense has to take at least a baby step forward. Buffalo wins a few of the close games they lost last year, but they haven’t done enough to improve their team drastically.
AFC West
- San Diego – 11wins
- Kansas City – 8 wins
- Denver – 7 wins
- Oakland – 5 wins
San Diego once again is a preseason darling. Can they actually make good on the potential this year? K.C. overcomes a rocky start to claw back to .500. Oakland takes a step back under a rookie head coach. Denver takes a step up under a veteran coach.
NFC North:
1.Green Bay – 12 wins
2. Detroit – 9 wins
3 Chicago – 7 wins
4. Minnesota – 4 wins
Green Bay is the class of the league and could repeat if the o-line stays healthy. Detroit delights its' band wagon followers, but falls short of the wild card. Chicago puts up a fight, but falls apart late. McNabb is not rejuvenated in Minny.
NFC South:
- New Orleans – 11 wins
- Tampa Bay - 10 wins
- Atlanta – 9 wins
- Carolina – 4 wins
Best division in football. Brees regroups and the Saints reclaim the South. Tampa faded last year due to injury and step forward not backward in ’11. Atlanta was healthy in ’10. Laws of probability dictate that with many large men crashing into each other repeatedly, the result will be different in ’11. Carolina will be better on offense, but the Panthers still have a ways to go on defense.
NFC East:
- Dallas – 11 wins
- New York – 9 wins
- Philladelphia – 8 wins
- Washington – 6 wins
Romo leads the Boys back to the playoffs. The Giants piece together one of those “things looked so bad in the preseason how did they do that?” seasons. Philly’s O-line still struggles and their front 7 on D won’t hold together.
NFC West:
- St. Louis – 9 wins
- Arizona – 8 wins
- San Francisco – 6 wins
- Seattle – 3 wins
Bradford shines under McDaniels’ tutelage. Kolb still has a year of inconsistencies to work out of his system. The 49ers are building. Is Pete Carroll’s seat getting hot yet?
Playoffs:
AFC:
- New England
- Pittsburgh
- San Diego
- Houston
- New York
- Titans
Patriots cruise. Steelers run out of gas. Chargers choke again. Houston finally made it, but goes home early. The Jets don’t catch the Pats off guard this time. The Titans somehow squeak in, but don’t hang around long.
NFC:
- Green Bay
- Dallas
- New Orleans
- St. Louis
- Tampa Bay
- New York
Can Green Bay grind their way through the season to a dream match-up of Tom Brady vs. Aaron Rodgers? Dallas is my pick to stamp their ticket to Indy. The Saints peak early. The Rams can’t hang with the more seasoned teams. Tampa does some damage. The Giants can’t get out of the wild card round.
Super Bowl:
New England over Dallas
Bengals Talk
Season Outlook:
Cincinnati is a mess. Andy Dalton is clueless. The Bengals are the worst team in the league. The national media has your Cincinnati Bengals pigeon holed as the favorite in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. Yes, I’m always overly optimistic this time of year, but I don’t think it will be quite that bad. The preseason had rough patches, but it felt like a lot of correctable mistakes as opposed to total deficiencies in personnel. They won four games last year with the hardest schedule in the league. I don’t expect sledding to be quite so rough in 2011. I think they can win two division games, at least split with the AFC South, split with the NFC West, and split with Buffalo/Denver. That tallies up to 7 wins. That’s not where you want to be, but it’s a far cry from being on the clock for the 2012 draft come January 1. Everyone keeps saying, “Rookie quarterback. Rookie quarterback. Rookie quarterback.” Yes, there will be growing pains, but they’ll still get wins. Be patient. Keep your eyes on 2013.
Good Bye J-Jo
The start of free agency was a little deflating to Bengals fans with the loss of free agent cornerback Jonathan Joseph. Flat out, when Joseph was on the field, the defense was better. To me, the full impact didn’t sink in until I really started to think about it and realized he was the best player on the team. Compiled with the rest of the offseason, his departure meant their top offensive and defensive assets had walked out the door.
Minus Joseph, Leon Hall is the top corner and Nate Clements was brought in as a stop-gap replacement. Neither one of these guys are CB1 type of players that can cover elite receivers reliably. Maybe they are good enough to stabilize the back end of the D, but I think high-end passing games in the league will have their way with them. The lone hope is that the kids on the D-line emerge to take some of the pressure off, and Adam Jones comes back in week 7 competent.
Long term, this might actually be a blessing in disguise. Joseph hasn’t exactly been a durable player. It might be better to part ways now when there’s time to look for a replacement rather than endure his salary cap number if he has any major breakdowns in the back half of his career.
Kicking Off
Cleveland over Cincy in week 1 has been discussed as a lock for eliminator pools everywhere. Really? Cleveland is favored by 6.5. Really? Can anyone name a player on Cleveland’s defense? They’re starting the season with a rookie coach and brand new offensive and defensive schemes. Their LG is on IR, the right side of their O-line has been rebuilt again, and they’re starting two rookies on their D-line. Basically, everyone is basing Cleveland’s upside on two games last year under a totally different regime and two quarters of preseason where Colt McCoy moved the ball well. They have a good core on offense, but they are still at least two years away. I’m picking the upset, but I think it’ll be a close game.
Enjoy week 1 everyone. Go Bengals!
