It’s that time of year. Pre-season football has ceased to quench our thirst and everyone is dying for the year to finally start. It is also about the time when sports publications across the country come out with their NFL season previews featuring loads of predictions and roster analysis. I am usually pretty pumped to dig into these articles, but it never fails. Starved for new information, I find myself excitedly rifling through the pages of whatever magazine I’m subscribed to at the time only to find some shmo like Peter King writing about how Tom Brady is good and the Steelers and the Ravens are going to fight it out for the AFC North title. It’s easy to have a good feeling about the teams that looked strong at the end of last year, but c’mon people. The hierarchy within each division throughout the league rarely stays the same year to year. Have some imagination. Yes, it’s hard to go out on a limb when you have thousands of rabid fans from each team foaming at the mouth if you don’t pump up their team. But I don’t have that problem. Here’s my take on how things will play out this season.
AFC North: the King Reigns
1. Pittsburgh:
Fresh off of nit picking NFL writers for being predictable, I am going to go out on a limb and pick the Steelers to win the division. The physical play of their defense has been the division’s signature since, well..forever. They are mean, and they don’t look to be getting any “nicer” any time soon (not with Mike Tomlin around anyway). They are sure to face some injury hurdles, but I expect them to grit out another double digit win season despite the steady stream of tough luck that tends to plague teams the year after a deep playoff run.
Record: 10-6
2. Cincinnati:
Oh man. A few weeks ago, I would have been very tempted to post a big number here. What can I say, a couple of live action, real but not real football games and my optimism has cooled to some extent. The offensive line has shown it has some growing to do, and Reggie Kelley going down hurts. Still, I feel good enough about things to leave them slotted number 2 in the division with a winning record. The defense just might be legit. Jonathan Joseph and Domata Peko look like they might be poised for big things, but they more than anyone else HAVE to stay healthy if this unit is going to step into the top class of the league. On offense, it looks like Cincy will apply significant pressure on opponents through their receivers, and Cedric Benson is solid enough to capitalize on the space that will result. In 2005, it seemed like the Bengals had a date with destiny. They claimed the division with their first winning season in 15 years and the Super Bowl site was none other than Detroit, the location of Cincinnati’s first Super Bowl appearance. One missed block later a Steelers helmet had devastated Palmer’s knee and it all came crashing down. Never fear Bengals fans. Don’t stop, belivin’. Hold on to that feelin’. Where did the Bengals play their second Super Bowl? That’s right. Miami: the site of Super Bowl XLIV. Home of the Ocho. Sounds perfect to me. Okay, so all of my optimism hasn’t died.
Record: 9-7
3. Baltimore:
Baltimore third place in the division with a losing record? With that defense and a stellar young quarterback like Joe Flacco, how on earth could this happen?! Ray Lewis is old. Prior to last year, he was prone to injury. I think this is the year he fades, and the Ravens defense will fade with him. They let his replacement follow their coordinator out the door and the guys they have left have potential but aren’t ready to fill Lewis’ shoes. As for Flacco, c’mon people! Take off the rookie beer goggles. How many times have you heard this off-season how there is extra pressure on this year’s rookie QB’s because of what Matt Ryan and Flacco did last year? Nice accomplishment, but the mistake is assuming improvement. He threw for 2,971 yards, 14 TD’s, 12 INT’s, a 60% completion percentage, and a 22nd best quarterback rating of 80.3. Yeah okay, good job rook but let’s not get carried away. There’s no guarantee he makes huge strides in year two. Just ask former rookie of the year, Vince Young.
Record: 6-10
4. Cleveland:
The quarterback duel is grabbing headlines. Otherwise, things seem pretty quiet. The reign of Eric Mangini has officially begun. Cleveland appears to be building their team the right way: add role players across the whole roster and let elite players emerge. Depth added through the draft and free agency should restore the offensive line as one of the team’s strengths, and I expect Braylon Edwards to bounce back. The defense should be better under Rob Ryan, but I’m not sure we’ll know who’s going to start at QB until the offense breaks the huddle in their first possession of week 1. That’s not good.
Record: 5-11
AFC South: Time Capsule
1. Indianapolis:
This division should be brutal. Top to bottom, I think it’s the best in the league. I like the Colts to reclaim AFC South supremacy. There have been rumblings about difficulty transitioning to the new coaching staff, but you kind of get the feeling that Peyton Manning is due for a statistical explosion.
Record: 11-5
2. Jacksonville:
The Jaguars nipping at the heels of Indy for the division title? It’s almost like a 4-year flashback. This is a bit of a long shot, but I think offensive line injuries were the key to Jacksonville dropping to the back of the pack a year ago. They appear to once again be healthy and they added veteran Tre Thomas and high draft picks Eben Britton and Eugene Monroe just in case they aren’t. Improved protection along with the addition of veteran leader Torry Holt should help QB David Garrard rebound from an off year. The defense desperately needs a young player in the front seven to emerge. Quentin Groves, Derrick Harvey, and Justin Durrant are all good candidates.
Record: 9-7
3. Houston:
This is the year Matt Schaub finally makes it through the whole season! He’d better. Rex Grossman and Dan Orlovsky are the alternatives. With a healthy Schaub, you’d expect a better record. All of the pieces appear to be in place for an explosive offense, and their defensive front 7 looks pretty outstanding on paper. However, they spent significant draft and free agency resources to continue to upgrade up front while their secondary is less talented than some college teams. Disgruntled star CB Dunta Robinson deciding to finally sign his franchise tender provides a boost, but how much can you expect from a guy that clearly would have preferred to leave through free-agency? Maybe they’ll hold off a rebounding Jacksonville team and manage to notch 9 or 10 wins, but I think they’ll have to wait one more year for the franchise’s first playoff berth.
Record: 8-8
4. Tennessee:
Surprisingly, it’s first to worst for the Titans. Haynesworth wasn’t worth the $100 million it would have taken to keep him, but he made everyone on their defense better. Their offense proved towards the end of the year that it’s not the same without Chris Johnson. I don’t expect the mini RB to make it through the whole season and a svelte Lendale White along with WR additions Nate Washington and Kenny Britt aren’t enough to save the Titan-ic. Everyone seems to be way too comfortable with Kerry Collins as the starting QB. I’m not sure he’s going to hold it together for another full year and things aren’t exactly going to be all roses and cream puffs when Vince Young takes over.
Record: 8-8
AFC East: Patriot Training Grounds
1. New England:
Tom Brady is back and so are the Patriots. How many teams could lose their star quarterback in week 1, start a guy who hasn’t played legitimately since high school, and barely miss the playoffs? The big thing to take away from 2008 for New England was that without the protection of a juggernaut offense the Patriot defense showed plenty of cracks. The key to whether or not they return to the Super Bowl is if they have retooled enough. Critics felt they put too many resources into rebuilding the secondary, and they failed to plug holes in the linebacking corps. However, one of the moves that flew under the radar a bit was the post-draft trade for Oakland’s Derrick Burgess. Burgess is exactly the kind of player that always goes stale with one team and joins the Patriots for rejuvenation.
Record: 12-4
2. New England Prep Squad #1 (NYJ):
The top team in the division diligently helping prepare the Patriots for playoff time: The New York Jets. Get ready to meet the NFL media’s new poster boy for over-glorification. Rookie Mark Sanchez has won the starting quarterback job, and there seems to be enough of a supporting cast in place for him to kick off his career with a winning record. Don’t count on a playoff appearance though. I’m not sure their defense will be quite as strong as some are predicting, and Rex Ryan isn’t the right man for the head-coaching job.
Record: 9-7
3. New England Prep Squad #2 (Buffalo):
The 2009 Bills look like they might be an upstart team that will surprise opponents with stingy defense and streaky offense. Their pass rush was non-existent last season, but the defensive line appears healthy once again and has added some fire power in first round draft pick Aaron Maybin. Offensively, the trick will be whether they can keep the peace on the T.O. front until RB Marshawn Lynch comes back from suspension in week 4 to provide them with one more explosive weapon.
Record: 7-9
4. New England Prep Squad #3 (Miami):
The Dolphins should provide a nice look at the Wild Cat so the Pats will be ready for any kind of offense they might see in January. Most people are citing a huge up-tick in schedule difficulty as the cause of Miami’s ’09 demise, but I think it’ll have more to do with a backslide on defense. Jason Ferguson up front is getting up there in age along with OLB’s Jason Taylor and Joey Porter. Can youngsters like LB Channing Crowder, safety Jason Allen, and CFL sack-master, Cameron Wake, make up for the potential decline of their top playmakers?
Record: 6-10
AFC West: Future Stomping Grounds of Sam Bradford
1. San Diego:
For what seems like the tenth season in a row, the Chargers are being touted as the so called “most talented roster in the league” with a great chance at challenging for AFC supremacy. It might be LT’s last shot at a title and they will probably win the division by default, but I don’t see them making the Super Bowl. While they are still good on both sides of the ball, their underrated offensive and defensive lines have taken hits due to age and free-agency.
Record: 9-7
2. Oakland:
Don’t be fooled by the locker room scuffles amongst the coaching staff and the preseason blowout losses. The Raiders are going to bring it in 2009… or something like that. Can JaMarcus Russell step up and actually start earning his paycheck? If not, maybe Jeff Garcia has one more year left in the tank… No wait, they cut him. Maybe Charlie Frye can work some magic. Can Darren McFadden stay healthy enough to put some of that disgusting talent to use? If not, Justin Fargas and Michael Bush are solid enough to be productive. The defense needs an overhaul up front but I think the young guns on O will man up enough to post an Even Steven in the win / loss columns.
Record: 8-8
3. Kansas City:
Reports out of K.C. have savior Matt Cassel struggling a bit throughout preseason. Maybe it’s just for show as new Coach Todd Haley has used similar “motivational” theatrics elsewhere on the team demoting top receiver Dwayne Bowe to 3rd string. Then again, the guy fired his offensive coordinator two weeks before the start of the season so maybe he is actually crazy. Either way, his offensive line still isn’t rebuilt. The Cassel injury opens the door for Tyler Thigpen and allows everyone to avoid a little bit of embarrassment in case they truly weren’t happy with how Cassel was showing.
Record: 7-9
4. Denver:
Talk about a crappy off-season. Denver had to totally collapse to miss the playoffs last year. Since then, they’ve gone from having one of the most experienced coaches in the league to being led by a 33 year-old rookie. They switched to a 3-4 defense that will require at least another year or two of personnel adjustments to acclimate to. Their star QB cried his way out of town. Their top receiver is trying to do the same. Even the Broncos faithful are starting to chatter about the possibility of nabbing Sam Bradford or the anit-Cutler, Colt McCoy, with the top pick in the 2010 draft. Don’t hang your heads too low Denver fans. The foundation is already laid for a quick return to prominence. Outside of nose tackle and QB, there is a young star or future star in place at just about every position. With Alphonso Smith at DB, D.J. Williams at ILB, Elvis Dumervil at OLB, Robert Ayers at DE, Knowshon Moreno at RB, Eddie Royal at WR, and Ryan Clady on the OL, 2009 might look like a confused mess but the outlook on the next three to five years actually doesn’t look too bad.
Record: 4-12
Brett Favre: NFC North
1. Green Bay:
Does the preseason really matter? If so, the Packers are going to put a hurtin on some teams this year. Brett who? This year is setting up to be endlessly gratifying for QB Aaron Rodgers. He has a strong opportunity to prove once and for all that the Packers made the right move ditching #4 to give him his shot while going head to head with the man himself. On top of that, if Rodgers torches the league for the statistical dream season he looks to be primed for he will have the last laugh over every franchise that passed on him. He and Alex Smith were top prospects in the 2005 draft. Smith went number 1 overall, but the whole league picked apart Rodgers’ mechanics and he tumbled all the way to the 24th pick. Meanwhile Smith looks to have fallen short in his last opportunity to claim the 49ers starting QB job. Rodgers will have plenty of help. Green Bay has quietly built one of the best groups of receivers in the league and RB Ryan Grant looks ready to bounce back from an under whelming 2008 season. On the other side of the ball the defense has shown some punch, hinting they might be one of the rare teams to excel in their first year trying to run a 3-4.
Record: 10-6
2. Minnesota:
Brett Favre Brett Favre Brett Favre, Brett Favre. Brett Favre. The Vikes finally played the card up their sleeve. It’s funny, now that it finally happened some of the doubters are starting to come to the forefront. Brett Favre, Brett Favre. There are some poor suckers still clinging to the Brett Favre makes the Vikings a Super Bowl contender theory, but there is also a healthy contingent forecasting disaster. Personally, I think Minnesota will win more games with Brett Favre at the helm than either Sage Rosenfels or Tarvaris Jackson. However like I said before, Brett Favre is not capable of winning three games in a row against playoff caliber teams. That ship has sailed. Can Jackson or Rosenfels? Probably not. But there is a snowball’s chance in Miami that one of those two could suddenly blossom into a championship quarterback. Brett Favre? Not so much. Some would argue the balance of the Vikings’ roster looks strong enough to carry the team to a title even with average quarterback play. On paper? Maybe. In reality, I don’t think so. Brett Favre.
Record: 9-7
3. Chicago:
The top story in Chicago has centered around the arrival of Jay Cutler and whether or not he has enough weapons to make a difference for the Bears. They could use a big play receiver, but I think the guys they have in combination with increased production out of TE Greg Olsen will be enough to keep from holding them back. Second year RB Matt Forte should be the focus of the offense anyway. The bigger concern is whether the defense can return to prominence. It seems like Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs, Nathan Vasher, and Charles Tillman should all be getting awarded rocking chairs for their 30 years of service with the franchise.
Record: 7-9
Detroit:
How far will the Lions climb out of their hole in year one of life after 0-16? Given the pieces that are already in place, I think they will progress further than some are giving credit. Calvin Johnson is simply an amazing athlete. Having already posted elite WR numbers in year two at one of the hardest positions to transition to from college, Johnson could soon threaten top player in the league status. Kevin Smith looks like an above average RB and the O-line isn’t as bad as some people seem to think. I still am of the opinion they made the wrong move picking Matthew Stafford, but at least they have a direction at QB. The Lions would be crazy to start Dante Culpepper for anything less than a year, but they’ve seemed indecisive about the decision and Culpepper’s recent foot injury has thrown things up in the air. The defense needs a little more work, but there is hope. LB Ernie Sims is above average, and Julian Peterson and Larry Foote are steady veterans with another year or two left in their tanks. I’m excited to see what kind of impact they get from rookie safety Louis Delmas. The roster is moving in a positive direction and the division isn’t as strong as analysts are making it out to be. The result should be a whopping six wins.
Record: 6-10
NFC South: One steps up, two step back
1. New Orleans:
The New Orleans Saints: Super Bowl contender. It has been a trendy opinion the past couple of seasons. This year it might actually be true. The offense doesn’t show any signs of slowing down, but the key will be whether the defense can step up. The Achilles heel has been their secondary. They have tried and tried to paste together an effective group of DB’s but have failed miserably. Of all the attempts though, this might be the best. Second year man Tracy Porter has showed promise and free agent Jabari Greer starting across from him is an upgrade. To back them up, rookie Malcolm Jenkins is a little underrated right now and free agent signee Randal Gay is decent coming off the bench. The biggest upgrade however might be Darren Sharper at safety. If he has anything left, he might be the veteran needed to finally make things work. If not, it could get messy. Trying to restore his reputation after having once been considered one of the best in the business, new defensive coordinator Greg Williams is implementing a more aggressive defense. I think the kind of fire Williams will bring is what the Saints need to push them over the top. Drew Brees, see you in Miami.
Record: 12-4
2. Atlanta:
Matty Ice is all the rage in Hot-lanta and the Falcons have become the up-and-coming sleeper team in a lot of eyes. However, much like in New Orleans, it’s not going to be that smooth. At first glance the defense looks most likely to hold them back. They have young players like Chris Houston and Chevis Jackson on the corners, Jamaal Anderson on the edge, Peria Jerry in the middle, and William Moore at safety. I like the unit being built by head coach Mike Smith, but they need some linebackers to go with Curtis Lofton and a couple of years to develop. It will just be a matter of whether they blossom in time to catch the tail end of star pass rusher John Abrham’s career. The defense is raw, but the offense will take its lumps too. For a rookie, Matt Ryan’s numbers were good last year, but, again, projecting steady improvements for young quarterbacks is dangerous. Interesting stat from ESPN the Magazine: in weeks 11 through 17 last year, Matt Ryan was outperformed by JaMarcus Russell in terms of quarterback rating. I’m not ready to declare Ryan a top ten quarterback yet. Tony Gonzalez has peaked. Michael Turner has looked great in the preseason but can he stay healthy? These guys are going to have an up and down season. Look for them to make waves if the league is still standing in 2011.
Record: 9-7
3. Carolina:
It isn’t hard to foresee a drop-off in the Panthers’ play considering the last time we saw them, Jake Delhomme was self destructing against Arizona in the playoffs. On top of that, the Panthers are a cyclical team. In fact, the franchise has never had back to back winning seasons. Steve Smith is a beast with another big year left in him and DeAngelo Williams is a stud. They just don’t have enough help right now. The defense was thin up front before losing starting DT Maake Kemoeatu. Now they’re in trouble. Julius Peppers wants out, but says he’s professional enough to keep it from affecting his play. That sounds great until things start to go south.
Record: 6-10
4. Tampa Bay:
It’s full-fledged rebuilding mode in Tampa. They hired a 33 year-old coach and decided they had to cut loose everyone older than Raheem Morris. Ronde Barber was about the only one to survive the slaughter. I like the vibe Morris has created with his team. They exude a real sense of camaraderie. Instead of the old general leading his troops, they have more of a brothers-in-arms feel. They will overachieve, but there’s just not enough talent to get it done this year.
Record: 4-12
NFC East: Great in the Regular Season, Regular in the Playoffs
1. Philadelphia:
Get ready for the greatest show on turf part deux. If the O-line stays healthy, this offense has a chance to be special. I just hope Andy Reid doesn’t mess it up trying to get cute using Michael Vick. I think they come out of the gate quick and come down to earth towards the end of the year. The defense is good, but they lost Brian Dawkins to free-agency. They lost defensive coordinator Jim Johnson to cancer. They lost MLB Stewart Bradley to injury. With losing that much leadership, they’ll have trouble sustaining a high level of play the whole season. In the end, the Eagles edge out the Giants for the NFC East title, but run out of gas in the playoffs.
Record: 11-4-1 (more on that later)
2. N.Y. Giants:
How about Eli the $100 million man? Manning is good but not great. Quarterbacks are hard to find, so the Giants felt they had to extend him and overpaid. Meanwhile, they single handedly raised the price tag of every QB in the league. Either that or they actually still think Manning is an upper echelon QB. We should find out this year. The offense is on his back. Their receiving corps is Eagles-esque: some talent with no elite playmakers. The O-line is still solid and Brandon Jacobs is a horse, but in the end it all boils down to Eli. The offense may run hot and cold, but their D should get them into the playoffs. The defensive line ran out of gas in ’08, but they’ve added enough firepower in the off-season to avoid the same fate this year.
Record: 11-5
3. Dallas:
Prevailing opinion on the Boys seems to be they aren’t all that different from last year. Consequently, their record won’t be all that different from last year. Roy Williams will be better than people are giving credit, but the guy that picks up the T.O. slack has to be their most explosive player: Felix Jones. Their defense might not have all the pieces they need to be dominant, but they have enough to go along with pass rush terror DeMarcus Ware to be adequate. They finish third in the division, but they’re the fourth best team in the conference and manage to snag the second wild card slot.
Record: 9-7
4. Washington
Once again, owner Daniel Snyder couldn’t contain himself in the off-season. It’s still not going to work. They’ve put an awful lot of eggs in the enormous basket of a big man. He’d better stay healthy. They’re not a bad team. In most divisions, they’d challenge for a playoff spot. The tie listed in the Eagles record above comes against the Redskins in week 12. Crafty coach Jim Zorn’s crafty offense will inch its way up the field in the OT. With 12 seconds to go, they run a draw to Rock Cartwright. Despite the Redskins having one time out left, the clock expires. Zorn struts off the field, arms thrust in the air like he just nailed the gold-medal-winning vault on a bum ankle at the Olympics, and Daniel Snyder’s head explodes. Meanwhile, Donovan McNabb trots out onto the field for the coin toss of the second OT.
Record: 4-11-1
NFC West: Almost Irrelevant
1. Seattle:
Feels like a bounce back year for the Hawks. The roster has quality, and it will take at least a year for new coach Jim Mora to mess it up. I like rookie Aaron Curry and veteran Cory Redding to rejuvenate the D. The offense isn’t going to blow any doors off, but they’ll win games. The offensive line might be trouble.
Record: 10-6
2. San Francisco:
I don’t know how the 49ers are going to do it. Some how, some way, Mike Singletary will figure it out. I’m kind of scared to see what happens if they don’t.
Record: 9-7
3. Arizona:
Kurt Warner had off-season hip surgery (and I thought he couldn’t seem any older).
The Super Bowl loser always drops down a notch after a failed championship run. Their defensive coordinator is gone and their offensive coordinator got poached. I think Chris Wells is the real deal, but the offense won’t quite chug like it once did with Matt Leinart at the helm and a gimpy Anquan Boldin.
Record: 7-9
4. St. Louis:
Steve Spagnuolo will get the boys scrappin’ but it’ll be a couple of years before we really know what he can do. The offensive line isn’t rebuilt yet, and the defense still doesn’t have any teeth. Pick LB, OT/G, WR (in that order) in the next draft and things might get interesting pretty quick.
Record: 3-13
It is a delicate balance between the extremes of making predictions that are obvious and boring and ones that are so outlandish they’re not even worth reading. I’m not sure I was bold enough, but things like the AFC division winners being Pit, Indy, N.E., and San Diego are hard to get away from. My projected win and loss totals should add up to the right numbers although I have no idea if the combinations listed are possible. For the record, I’m going with New England over New Orleans in the Super Bowl.
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
Defense?
Brought in as a much-heralded defensive mind, one of the key criticisms to head coach Marvin Lewis’ tenure has been his inability to develop an effective defense. Yet, even his most persistent doubters have to acknowledge that many of the team’s issues are more related to personnel than coaching and philosophy. Lewis has some impact on the players he ends up with, yes, but there are a lot more than just his hands involved in the process and luck and economics factor in strongly as well. Right off the bat, his best player had had his fill of the Queen city, and there was no way the Bengals were going to fork out the cash to keep Taekeo Spikes. Just as Madieu Williams looked to be on his way to great things, injuries set him back a few years and it seemed like he never recovered past anything better than just an average player. David Pollack showed signs he might be the lynchpin pass-rushing force perfect for building the unit around, but his career lasted less than two seasons thanks to injury. Odell Thurman fizzled out too. So here we are, a play date with the boys in orange and black has been the miracle cure for struggling opposing offenses for almost two decades, we’ve had a defensive guru as head coach for six years and there has been little progress. Until now? While continuing to display many flaws, the Bengals’ 2008 defense showed some signs of life. Fans have high hopes that last year was just a stepping stone for what has yet to come.
Last season, new defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer led his boys to a league ranking of twelfth in yards/game. True, there wasn’t a whole lot separating teams 12 through 22, but considering for support Cincy’s D had the league’s worst offense, I’d say it was quite an accomplishment. Can Zimmer elevate his unit to the next level? If so, it all starts up front. On the second level, the linebacking corps has to continue to progress, and the secondary has to stay healthy.
First Line of Defense:
Perhaps the biggest key to the Bengals’ D becoming a force to be reckoned with is the defensive line. Cincinnati has long craved a drain-clogging presence at DT and Domato Peko and Pat Sims just might be it. Towards the end of 2008, as the team started to be more competitive, some of the pressure was taken off the rush defense and the young duo started to show what they can do. They acquired a slight upgrade from John Thornton in Tank Johnson (assuming he behaves), but Peko is really the guy that has to continue to develop and anchor. Past the top three guys, coaches will likely have to make a judgment call on who would be a more valuable to keep on the roster: the mammoth late-round 2008 draft pick Jason Shirley or the smaller more athletic prospect selected in the sixth round this year, Clinton McDonald.
The bigger question: can the guys on the edge get to the quarterback? I’m excited to see if Antwan Odom can make an impact in year two with the team. He has reportedly bulked up to 285 and has some punch, but it remains to be seen if he can convert his rebuilt physique into sacks. Coming back from microfracture surgery, I’m not sure that Robert Geathers has a 10-sack season in him. I think the backups are solid in Jonathan Fanene and Frostee Rucker, but I don’t see either making a big impact outside of run support. The X-factor is rookie Michael Johnson. He has all the tools to be special. The coaches just have to find a way to extract it from him. Hit ‘em with Odom, the hammer, on one side and strike with lightning on the other. It will also help to have T. Johnson as more of a threat to rush from the inside. Who knows, it just might work.
The Heart of the Matter:
The linbacking corps has a chance to be great. It might not be today. It might not be tomorrow, but eventually I think people are going to take notice of this group. The impact of getting Keith Rivers back is getting overlooked right now. The guy got his feet wet last year and showed a real nose for the ball, but an injury shortened rookie season has him flying a bit under the radar. Dhani Jones handles the middle competently while providing immense personality and leadership to the team. He should last just long enough until Rey Maualuga is ready to take over. Rashad Jeanty is the underrated player of the crew. He is tough as nails and seems to play solid whenever given the opportunity. Tallying 96 tackles in ‘08 in his third year with the Bengals, coaches will most likely stick with him as the starter on the strong side and substitute in Maualuga at their discretion. Along with Maualuga, Darryl Blackstock, Brandon Johnson, and Abdul Hodge represent a fairly capable crop of backups. The group has been banged up during camp, but no one is expected to miss extended time. If all goes well, they will be the stabilizing force of the unit that provides the flare needed to take things up a notch.
Thin Around the Edges?
The Bengals have invested highly in their corners. Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph have a couple of years under their belts. Is this the year they pay major dividends? I’m not so sure they will. I think they can both be very good, but for them to play at an all-star level they have to be enhanced by the front seven. If the defensive line and linebackers can do a better job forcing opposing offenses to be more predictable and take risks, these two will flourish. All they have to do is stay healthy. Or at least they’d better. The team was thin behind the young starters before David Jones went down. If Jones doesn’t stay healthy when he comes back, would they be okay with some combination of Jamar Fletcher, Geoff Pope, and Morgan Trent? Maybe but if one of the starters goes down it could get ugly. I just hope one of the safeties can play corner. Fans have to be excited to see if Chris Crocker picks up where he left off in ’08. Stick him next to Roy Williams in the starting lineup and you can just feel the defense getting meaner. Chinedum Ndukwe is opportunistic. Marvin White is a hard-nosed gamer. Corey Lynch and Kyries Hebert are ideal backups with significant special teams prowess. Who do you cut? I hope they keep all six, but it seems like going with only four pure corners is becoming more and more of a long shot. I think it comes down to how White looks coming back from the torn up knee and if Williams can still play with the edgy toughness he exudes in his personality.
Does this defense have a shot at finally breaking the mold of being perpetually ordinary? Absolutely. The mix of veterans and younger players is almost perfect. Top to bottom they are as talented as they have been since I’ve been cheering for them. The one thing they are missing is a face. They have several guys who can lead, but they don’t have that player that consumes the minds of offensive coordinators around the league. They don’t have a game changer...yet. Right now, it’s all about potential. All of the pieces are on the table. Personnel is no longer the sticking point. Now more than ever the onus is on Lewis and Zimmer to turn these guys into something special.
Last season, new defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer led his boys to a league ranking of twelfth in yards/game. True, there wasn’t a whole lot separating teams 12 through 22, but considering for support Cincy’s D had the league’s worst offense, I’d say it was quite an accomplishment. Can Zimmer elevate his unit to the next level? If so, it all starts up front. On the second level, the linebacking corps has to continue to progress, and the secondary has to stay healthy.
First Line of Defense:
Perhaps the biggest key to the Bengals’ D becoming a force to be reckoned with is the defensive line. Cincinnati has long craved a drain-clogging presence at DT and Domato Peko and Pat Sims just might be it. Towards the end of 2008, as the team started to be more competitive, some of the pressure was taken off the rush defense and the young duo started to show what they can do. They acquired a slight upgrade from John Thornton in Tank Johnson (assuming he behaves), but Peko is really the guy that has to continue to develop and anchor. Past the top three guys, coaches will likely have to make a judgment call on who would be a more valuable to keep on the roster: the mammoth late-round 2008 draft pick Jason Shirley or the smaller more athletic prospect selected in the sixth round this year, Clinton McDonald.
The bigger question: can the guys on the edge get to the quarterback? I’m excited to see if Antwan Odom can make an impact in year two with the team. He has reportedly bulked up to 285 and has some punch, but it remains to be seen if he can convert his rebuilt physique into sacks. Coming back from microfracture surgery, I’m not sure that Robert Geathers has a 10-sack season in him. I think the backups are solid in Jonathan Fanene and Frostee Rucker, but I don’t see either making a big impact outside of run support. The X-factor is rookie Michael Johnson. He has all the tools to be special. The coaches just have to find a way to extract it from him. Hit ‘em with Odom, the hammer, on one side and strike with lightning on the other. It will also help to have T. Johnson as more of a threat to rush from the inside. Who knows, it just might work.
The Heart of the Matter:
The linbacking corps has a chance to be great. It might not be today. It might not be tomorrow, but eventually I think people are going to take notice of this group. The impact of getting Keith Rivers back is getting overlooked right now. The guy got his feet wet last year and showed a real nose for the ball, but an injury shortened rookie season has him flying a bit under the radar. Dhani Jones handles the middle competently while providing immense personality and leadership to the team. He should last just long enough until Rey Maualuga is ready to take over. Rashad Jeanty is the underrated player of the crew. He is tough as nails and seems to play solid whenever given the opportunity. Tallying 96 tackles in ‘08 in his third year with the Bengals, coaches will most likely stick with him as the starter on the strong side and substitute in Maualuga at their discretion. Along with Maualuga, Darryl Blackstock, Brandon Johnson, and Abdul Hodge represent a fairly capable crop of backups. The group has been banged up during camp, but no one is expected to miss extended time. If all goes well, they will be the stabilizing force of the unit that provides the flare needed to take things up a notch.
Thin Around the Edges?
The Bengals have invested highly in their corners. Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph have a couple of years under their belts. Is this the year they pay major dividends? I’m not so sure they will. I think they can both be very good, but for them to play at an all-star level they have to be enhanced by the front seven. If the defensive line and linebackers can do a better job forcing opposing offenses to be more predictable and take risks, these two will flourish. All they have to do is stay healthy. Or at least they’d better. The team was thin behind the young starters before David Jones went down. If Jones doesn’t stay healthy when he comes back, would they be okay with some combination of Jamar Fletcher, Geoff Pope, and Morgan Trent? Maybe but if one of the starters goes down it could get ugly. I just hope one of the safeties can play corner. Fans have to be excited to see if Chris Crocker picks up where he left off in ’08. Stick him next to Roy Williams in the starting lineup and you can just feel the defense getting meaner. Chinedum Ndukwe is opportunistic. Marvin White is a hard-nosed gamer. Corey Lynch and Kyries Hebert are ideal backups with significant special teams prowess. Who do you cut? I hope they keep all six, but it seems like going with only four pure corners is becoming more and more of a long shot. I think it comes down to how White looks coming back from the torn up knee and if Williams can still play with the edgy toughness he exudes in his personality.
Does this defense have a shot at finally breaking the mold of being perpetually ordinary? Absolutely. The mix of veterans and younger players is almost perfect. Top to bottom they are as talented as they have been since I’ve been cheering for them. The one thing they are missing is a face. They have several guys who can lead, but they don’t have that player that consumes the minds of offensive coordinators around the league. They don’t have a game changer...yet. Right now, it’s all about potential. All of the pieces are on the table. Personnel is no longer the sticking point. Now more than ever the onus is on Lewis and Zimmer to turn these guys into something special.
Thursday, July 30, 2009
Talk Soup
Never fear football fans. The sports wasteland that is July is almost over. That sound you hear is the creak of training camp doors opening. The NFL’s army of journalists and has-been player analysts are back to work pumping out endless streams of league news and another year of football is right around the corner. Before it’s time to get serious about ’09 prospects for the orange and black, I’m going to blow off some steam on a few of the “top” stories that have been and probably will remain in the forefront of topics covered this off-season. When and where will Michael Vick resume his NFL career? What impact will T.O. have in Buffalo? And last but absolutely not least, what was Brett Favre feeling as he ate breakfast this morning?
Where will Vick land?
As has been painstakingly chronicled Michael Vick is out jail and on the prowl for a job. Discussions went back and forth as the former phenom awaited Commissioner Roger Goodell’s decision on his league reinstatement: He’s served his time, let him in! He’s a liar and a criminal, send him back into exile! First of all, Goodell’s job is to protect the league. It’s all about risk vs. reward. He should figure out the option he thinks is going to generate the least negative publicity and go that direction. Second of all, it doesn’t matter when Vick gets reinstated or who might take the risk of signing him. This time of year most teams are going to be hesitant to even bring him in as a backup QB. That leaves a best-case scenario of sitting on the bench as a third-stringer and running the occasional circus-stunt third down play. The real answer is, Vick should put off jumping back into the NFL pressure cooker and step right up to the United Football League. Meant to be a developmental league for the NFL anyways, the UFL will start in October and consist of a six game season that lasts until Thanksgiving. Preparing for their inaugural season, they would welcome the publicity Vick brings with opens arms. Stepping right in as a starter, not only would Vick get the repetitions necessary to shake off two years of rust, but playing against professional players a cut below the talent level of the NFL would be the perfect place to remind everyone how freakish he is athletically. To top it all off, when the league breaks in November, he’d have the option to sign on with an NFL team at right about the time when people are getting desperate to make something happen. If he plays it right he has a good shot at parlaying half a years play into a pretty decent contract for 2010.
What will happen with T.O. this year in Buffalo?
Exactly what you think will happen. He’ll be a boy scout for six weeks or so. About the time three or four losses pile up, it will start. He’ll realize Lee Evans has more catches than him and start to hear the whispers about how he’s lost a step. Then he’ll find a reason he doesn’t like what the coaches are doing or how the quarterback is playing…and the rest is history. You can’t blame the Bills for trying. After all, receivers with his talents don’t exactly grow on trees, and usually Owens puts one good year in before he blows up. For a franchise dying to make something happen, what’s the harm in signing the guy up for a year? Unfortunately, he is just too much, and I have a feeling it will be one and done in Buffalo. I hear Joey Galloway plans on leaving New England next year for the Senior Tour, so I imagine the Patriots will be in the market for a 36 year-old receiver. It’s probably the only place that could come close to containing him. I’d at least like to see them try.
What is Brett Favre Feeling?
Better yet, what was Minnesota thinking? People keep clamoring how if Favre signed with the Vikings, they transform from a playoff team to a Super Bowl team, but what I can’t figure out is how these journalists/analysts can justify collecting a paycheck. I thought people were nuts to criticize Green Bay last year for turning over the reins to Aaron Rodgers, but the sentiment could at least be condoned based off the decent momentum the Packers had from the ’08 season. Favre then moved on to the Jets and proceeded to run out of gas mentally and physically again (this time in the regular season instead of the NFC Championship game), and people still somehow think this guy can step in with a new team and deliver. I don’t care what running back or defense he has for support, Favre can no longer win three playoff games in a row. The Vikings are better off with Sage Rosenfels as their starting QB because a one in a million chance of winning the Super Bowl is still greater than zero.
Alright, I feel better. I’ll try to check back in shortly with some Bengals chatter.
Where will Vick land?
As has been painstakingly chronicled Michael Vick is out jail and on the prowl for a job. Discussions went back and forth as the former phenom awaited Commissioner Roger Goodell’s decision on his league reinstatement: He’s served his time, let him in! He’s a liar and a criminal, send him back into exile! First of all, Goodell’s job is to protect the league. It’s all about risk vs. reward. He should figure out the option he thinks is going to generate the least negative publicity and go that direction. Second of all, it doesn’t matter when Vick gets reinstated or who might take the risk of signing him. This time of year most teams are going to be hesitant to even bring him in as a backup QB. That leaves a best-case scenario of sitting on the bench as a third-stringer and running the occasional circus-stunt third down play. The real answer is, Vick should put off jumping back into the NFL pressure cooker and step right up to the United Football League. Meant to be a developmental league for the NFL anyways, the UFL will start in October and consist of a six game season that lasts until Thanksgiving. Preparing for their inaugural season, they would welcome the publicity Vick brings with opens arms. Stepping right in as a starter, not only would Vick get the repetitions necessary to shake off two years of rust, but playing against professional players a cut below the talent level of the NFL would be the perfect place to remind everyone how freakish he is athletically. To top it all off, when the league breaks in November, he’d have the option to sign on with an NFL team at right about the time when people are getting desperate to make something happen. If he plays it right he has a good shot at parlaying half a years play into a pretty decent contract for 2010.
What will happen with T.O. this year in Buffalo?
Exactly what you think will happen. He’ll be a boy scout for six weeks or so. About the time three or four losses pile up, it will start. He’ll realize Lee Evans has more catches than him and start to hear the whispers about how he’s lost a step. Then he’ll find a reason he doesn’t like what the coaches are doing or how the quarterback is playing…and the rest is history. You can’t blame the Bills for trying. After all, receivers with his talents don’t exactly grow on trees, and usually Owens puts one good year in before he blows up. For a franchise dying to make something happen, what’s the harm in signing the guy up for a year? Unfortunately, he is just too much, and I have a feeling it will be one and done in Buffalo. I hear Joey Galloway plans on leaving New England next year for the Senior Tour, so I imagine the Patriots will be in the market for a 36 year-old receiver. It’s probably the only place that could come close to containing him. I’d at least like to see them try.
What is Brett Favre Feeling?
Better yet, what was Minnesota thinking? People keep clamoring how if Favre signed with the Vikings, they transform from a playoff team to a Super Bowl team, but what I can’t figure out is how these journalists/analysts can justify collecting a paycheck. I thought people were nuts to criticize Green Bay last year for turning over the reins to Aaron Rodgers, but the sentiment could at least be condoned based off the decent momentum the Packers had from the ’08 season. Favre then moved on to the Jets and proceeded to run out of gas mentally and physically again (this time in the regular season instead of the NFC Championship game), and people still somehow think this guy can step in with a new team and deliver. I don’t care what running back or defense he has for support, Favre can no longer win three playoff games in a row. The Vikings are better off with Sage Rosenfels as their starting QB because a one in a million chance of winning the Super Bowl is still greater than zero.
Alright, I feel better. I’ll try to check back in shortly with some Bengals chatter.
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
Draft Day and Beyond!
The madness has subsided and most teams have had their first look at their newly acquired draft picks in rookie mini-camps. There was a lot of excitement at the 2009 draft. Time to look back on the highlights and review how Marvin Lewis and company faired tweaking their roster for what might be this coaching staff’s make-or-break season.
I have taken another step towards insanity. Instead of spending an entire day glued to the radio to listen to the proceedings at the sports world’s most glorified press conference, I decided to travel to New York City to take in the event live. Between the energy of the crowd to having an earpiece that could be tuned in to the audio of the ESPN or NFL network coverage, the 2009 draft was quite an experience.
Detroit started it off selecting the front-runner from the beginning Matthew Stafford. Mark Sanchez never seemed to draw serious attention for this pick, but in the end I still maintain that he’s the better prospect. Stafford boasts elite physical skills, but Sanchez has more potential in terms of leadership and ability to deliver in the clutch. Nonetheless, the Lions stuck to their guns. Best case scenario they drafted Drew Bledsoe. Worst case, they’re stuck with a rocket-armed QB that is going to get sacked many many times. The Rams also went by the script filling an O-line hole instead of making waves with a Sanchez selection.
There were ooo’s and ahhh’s at Radio City Music Hall as Kansas City made the first big reach deciding to draft need over talent. Tyson Jackson by most accounts was the top prospect capable of playing 3-4 DE and that was good enough for GM Soctt Pioli and the Chiefs. Yes, having big bodies up front that can occupy opposing blockers is crucial to a 3-4 defense, but much like the center and guard positions on the offensive side of the ball, the top half of the first round isn’t the place to find defensive ends who will be required to mostly anchor more than attack.
The next big splash came just two picks later as the home town Jets traded all the way up to the five slot to grab the Great Sanchito. Of the healthy portion of Jets fans in the crowd, some were pulling their hair out in disgust but overall the reaction was raw excitement. A lot of people are still skeptical, but the Joe Namath comparisons have already started. We’ll see. I think the Jets got the right guy.
OT picks by Cincy and Jacksonville bookended another classic Al Davis selection as the Raiders nabbed the combine’s fastest prospect. Analysts often slotted Darius Heyward-Bey in the 18 to 21 range, but projections usually came with the disclaimer that Bey was a reach in the late teens because of the lack of polish to go with his greasy fast speed. After Oakland successfully sent mock drafts everywhere to the garbage, Michael Crabtree was a no-brainer for San Fran to round out the top 10. The rest of round 1 had plenty of excitement that included a handful of trades and a lot of intriguing moves.
Opportunity Knocks:
The first round was good, but how about that second round? It was amazing how rich the 2009 draft class was in late round 1, early round 2 caliber players. The plateau of talent spilled generously into round 3 and kept things pretty interesting for a significant portion of day 2. The best part, Cincinnati fans, was this draft class played right into the Bengals’ wheelhouse. Year after year they have been conservative with their resources. They are patient and they let the draft come to them. The approach has let them down in recent years with the Bengals always seeming one step behind, narrowly missing out on high value players or that perfect prospect for their system. However, the early consensus seems to be that 2009 was different.
My reaction to the Bengals draft was a roller coaster of emotions. At number six overall, they went with the ultra-talented behemoth from Alabama, Andre Smith. Most mock drafts had them zeroed in on Smith and heading into the day, I had a feeling that’s the direction they’d go. A Michael Crabtree pick / Chad Ochocinco trade combo would have been slick, but with two legitimate top ten OT’s on the board they couldn’t ignore their top need. When they made the pick I was almost indifferent. Eugene Monroe would have been safer, but I acknowledge Smith has a better skill set for what the team needs. I’ve become quite a bit more skeptical these days when Bengals’ coaches claim they’ve “done their homework” on a player’s character flaws, but in watching the post-pick press conference, it was at least reassuring to hear how confident Marvin Lewis and line coach Paul Alexander were that they made a good choice. Source after source have cited how everyone who has coached or worked with Smith feel his character is not an issue. Will maturity issues scuttle his career? I think his new agent put it best with the comment that Smith is a good kid that is best off in a structured environment. It’s almost enough to make you feel pretty good about the pick. Then again, recent news of Smith once again switching representation and then changing his mind and then changing it again is a startling reminder that we’re not out of the woods yet with this kid. Big money and big distractions are all over the place in the NFL. It will be sink or swim for the new number 71. Whichever way he goes might just be the way the franchise goes the next five years or so.
Round two came around quick and before I knew it the Bengals were up. The five-minute clock counted down and my mind was swirling thinking about all the possibilities. The list of first-round talent still available was pretty impressive. Darius Butler (CB Connecticut), Everette Brown (DE Florida State), Connor Barwin (DE UC), Rey Maualuga (LB USC), Max Unger (C Oregon), Eben Britton (OT Arizona), William Beatty (OT Connecticut); any one of them would have been a pretty solid pick. As the NFL official walked to the podium, I paced up and down the aisle of the now largely thinned out row of seats where I was sitting. I didn’t actually realize whom I wanted them to pick until they announced Maualuga and I started jumping up and down and I fist bumped the guy I’d never met sitting behind me (he happened to be a Bengals fan from Cincinnati. What are the chances of that?). Marvin Lewis was glowing when he came out to talk about the pick, but don’t think there wasn’t a healthy debate in that war room over what direction they should go. I sat there and watched the clock tick down inside three seconds before the choice was made. My enthusiasm for the pick has since cooled into cautious optimism (does he translate to the NFL? Will that hamstring hold up?), but I think it was the right move. Some people would have preferred to see them go with a top caliber center like Unger or a pass rusher like Brown or Barwin. Yes, center is a huge question mark going into next season but Cincinnati coaches had Unger for a whole week at the Senior Bowl. If they fell in love with him or at least felt he was a serious upgrade over what they already have, I’m pretty sure they would have taken him. Right or wrong, they seem to be comfortable going into training camp with Kyle Cook as the starter. As far as the DE’s, both are a little undersized. They might wind up as productive pro-players eventually, but they most likely are situational players until they either bulk up or complete the always-dicey DE to LB conversion. Regardless, MLB is a greater need than anyone is giving credit. Dhani Jones has over-achieved for two years, he’s 31 years old, and has spent the last two off-seasons knocking heads with brutes all across the world. I think it’s reasonable to believe his level of play is going to decline in the next one to two seasons. They might be able to plug Brandon Johnson or Keith Rivers into his spot, but now they have Maualuga who is already comfortable in the middle. They are also training him on the strong side and I feel better about that transition than if they were moving Barwin to linebacker. Bengals writer, Geoff Hobson, is already anointing Maualuga as one of the top three LBs on the team that is a shoe-in to start, but I think Mr. Rashad Jeanty probably has a beef with that sentiment. In his rookie season, I see Maualuga as a very capable backup at both spots that can be used to bring in fresh legs and provide the defense with a spark. Getting pushed around in the ground game? Bring in the 250 pound man-wrecker to stir things up a bit. Until his instincts improve he won’t always hit his target, but he’ll hit people.
In a way, getting Michael Johnson in the third round vindicated the Maualuga pick. They selected Mauluga to round out the linebacking corps with some spice and provide added support to an already improving rush defense and were still able to pick up a new toy in round 3 for defending against the pass. Very few pass rushers in the league make a big splash early in their careers, so whoever they drafted was going to need development. Instead of forcing the need, they waited a round and had one of the draft’s best athletes fall into their laps. Right out of the box, Johnson has the size to play defensive end and the athleticism to play outside linebacker. Most analysts feel he underachieved at the college level given his substantial talent, but the third round is a great spot to pick him up. If he is what I think he is, he’s going to give defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer the flexibility to do some pretty exciting things. Zimmer just has figure out how to get it out of him.
With the ever-valuable third round compensatory pick Cincy decision makers went with Missouri TE Chase Coffman. Coffman could be a pretty solid find if he’s able overcome the foot injury. His potential is high enough to justify spending the pick to bring him in to compete with Matt Sherry and Ben Utecht. In the wake of losing their best third down playmaker trying to squeeze some more receiving production out of the tight end is essential.
In round 4 they finally went center. Johnathan Luigs doesn’t appear to be starter material yet, but typically if you’re hoping to find immediate starters in the fourth round you’re in pretty bad shape. The coaches seem like they have their man in Kyle Cook. We’ll see if the kid has what it takes.
The highlights of the rest of Cincinnati’s 2009 draft class included a local punter, a fullback, and a RB with a troubled past. Bearcat fans tired of seeing Kyle Larson shank punts were no doubt excited about the fifth round pickup of college football’s best punter, Kevin Huber (Cincinnati). Fui Vakapuna in the sixth gives them some much-needed new blood at fullback and RB Bernard Scott is another player with the potential of coming in and being a third down contributor. Will the demons of Scott’s past come back to haunt him? You almost have to admire Marvin Lewis for continually stepping to the plate to take these guys with multiple arrests in their backgrounds who he thinks can help his team when he knows he’s just going to get killed in the media. I hope he doesn’t once again wind up with egg on his face and another draft choice flushed down the tubes.
Overall, this draft class could be a big one for the Bengals. In most cases their patience paid off. They were able to make a lot of solid decisions to sure up the roster. The only problem is now we have to wait at least four months before we start to get an idea of just how well they did.
I have taken another step towards insanity. Instead of spending an entire day glued to the radio to listen to the proceedings at the sports world’s most glorified press conference, I decided to travel to New York City to take in the event live. Between the energy of the crowd to having an earpiece that could be tuned in to the audio of the ESPN or NFL network coverage, the 2009 draft was quite an experience.
Detroit started it off selecting the front-runner from the beginning Matthew Stafford. Mark Sanchez never seemed to draw serious attention for this pick, but in the end I still maintain that he’s the better prospect. Stafford boasts elite physical skills, but Sanchez has more potential in terms of leadership and ability to deliver in the clutch. Nonetheless, the Lions stuck to their guns. Best case scenario they drafted Drew Bledsoe. Worst case, they’re stuck with a rocket-armed QB that is going to get sacked many many times. The Rams also went by the script filling an O-line hole instead of making waves with a Sanchez selection.
There were ooo’s and ahhh’s at Radio City Music Hall as Kansas City made the first big reach deciding to draft need over talent. Tyson Jackson by most accounts was the top prospect capable of playing 3-4 DE and that was good enough for GM Soctt Pioli and the Chiefs. Yes, having big bodies up front that can occupy opposing blockers is crucial to a 3-4 defense, but much like the center and guard positions on the offensive side of the ball, the top half of the first round isn’t the place to find defensive ends who will be required to mostly anchor more than attack.
The next big splash came just two picks later as the home town Jets traded all the way up to the five slot to grab the Great Sanchito. Of the healthy portion of Jets fans in the crowd, some were pulling their hair out in disgust but overall the reaction was raw excitement. A lot of people are still skeptical, but the Joe Namath comparisons have already started. We’ll see. I think the Jets got the right guy.
OT picks by Cincy and Jacksonville bookended another classic Al Davis selection as the Raiders nabbed the combine’s fastest prospect. Analysts often slotted Darius Heyward-Bey in the 18 to 21 range, but projections usually came with the disclaimer that Bey was a reach in the late teens because of the lack of polish to go with his greasy fast speed. After Oakland successfully sent mock drafts everywhere to the garbage, Michael Crabtree was a no-brainer for San Fran to round out the top 10. The rest of round 1 had plenty of excitement that included a handful of trades and a lot of intriguing moves.
Opportunity Knocks:
The first round was good, but how about that second round? It was amazing how rich the 2009 draft class was in late round 1, early round 2 caliber players. The plateau of talent spilled generously into round 3 and kept things pretty interesting for a significant portion of day 2. The best part, Cincinnati fans, was this draft class played right into the Bengals’ wheelhouse. Year after year they have been conservative with their resources. They are patient and they let the draft come to them. The approach has let them down in recent years with the Bengals always seeming one step behind, narrowly missing out on high value players or that perfect prospect for their system. However, the early consensus seems to be that 2009 was different.
My reaction to the Bengals draft was a roller coaster of emotions. At number six overall, they went with the ultra-talented behemoth from Alabama, Andre Smith. Most mock drafts had them zeroed in on Smith and heading into the day, I had a feeling that’s the direction they’d go. A Michael Crabtree pick / Chad Ochocinco trade combo would have been slick, but with two legitimate top ten OT’s on the board they couldn’t ignore their top need. When they made the pick I was almost indifferent. Eugene Monroe would have been safer, but I acknowledge Smith has a better skill set for what the team needs. I’ve become quite a bit more skeptical these days when Bengals’ coaches claim they’ve “done their homework” on a player’s character flaws, but in watching the post-pick press conference, it was at least reassuring to hear how confident Marvin Lewis and line coach Paul Alexander were that they made a good choice. Source after source have cited how everyone who has coached or worked with Smith feel his character is not an issue. Will maturity issues scuttle his career? I think his new agent put it best with the comment that Smith is a good kid that is best off in a structured environment. It’s almost enough to make you feel pretty good about the pick. Then again, recent news of Smith once again switching representation and then changing his mind and then changing it again is a startling reminder that we’re not out of the woods yet with this kid. Big money and big distractions are all over the place in the NFL. It will be sink or swim for the new number 71. Whichever way he goes might just be the way the franchise goes the next five years or so.
Round two came around quick and before I knew it the Bengals were up. The five-minute clock counted down and my mind was swirling thinking about all the possibilities. The list of first-round talent still available was pretty impressive. Darius Butler (CB Connecticut), Everette Brown (DE Florida State), Connor Barwin (DE UC), Rey Maualuga (LB USC), Max Unger (C Oregon), Eben Britton (OT Arizona), William Beatty (OT Connecticut); any one of them would have been a pretty solid pick. As the NFL official walked to the podium, I paced up and down the aisle of the now largely thinned out row of seats where I was sitting. I didn’t actually realize whom I wanted them to pick until they announced Maualuga and I started jumping up and down and I fist bumped the guy I’d never met sitting behind me (he happened to be a Bengals fan from Cincinnati. What are the chances of that?). Marvin Lewis was glowing when he came out to talk about the pick, but don’t think there wasn’t a healthy debate in that war room over what direction they should go. I sat there and watched the clock tick down inside three seconds before the choice was made. My enthusiasm for the pick has since cooled into cautious optimism (does he translate to the NFL? Will that hamstring hold up?), but I think it was the right move. Some people would have preferred to see them go with a top caliber center like Unger or a pass rusher like Brown or Barwin. Yes, center is a huge question mark going into next season but Cincinnati coaches had Unger for a whole week at the Senior Bowl. If they fell in love with him or at least felt he was a serious upgrade over what they already have, I’m pretty sure they would have taken him. Right or wrong, they seem to be comfortable going into training camp with Kyle Cook as the starter. As far as the DE’s, both are a little undersized. They might wind up as productive pro-players eventually, but they most likely are situational players until they either bulk up or complete the always-dicey DE to LB conversion. Regardless, MLB is a greater need than anyone is giving credit. Dhani Jones has over-achieved for two years, he’s 31 years old, and has spent the last two off-seasons knocking heads with brutes all across the world. I think it’s reasonable to believe his level of play is going to decline in the next one to two seasons. They might be able to plug Brandon Johnson or Keith Rivers into his spot, but now they have Maualuga who is already comfortable in the middle. They are also training him on the strong side and I feel better about that transition than if they were moving Barwin to linebacker. Bengals writer, Geoff Hobson, is already anointing Maualuga as one of the top three LBs on the team that is a shoe-in to start, but I think Mr. Rashad Jeanty probably has a beef with that sentiment. In his rookie season, I see Maualuga as a very capable backup at both spots that can be used to bring in fresh legs and provide the defense with a spark. Getting pushed around in the ground game? Bring in the 250 pound man-wrecker to stir things up a bit. Until his instincts improve he won’t always hit his target, but he’ll hit people.
In a way, getting Michael Johnson in the third round vindicated the Maualuga pick. They selected Mauluga to round out the linebacking corps with some spice and provide added support to an already improving rush defense and were still able to pick up a new toy in round 3 for defending against the pass. Very few pass rushers in the league make a big splash early in their careers, so whoever they drafted was going to need development. Instead of forcing the need, they waited a round and had one of the draft’s best athletes fall into their laps. Right out of the box, Johnson has the size to play defensive end and the athleticism to play outside linebacker. Most analysts feel he underachieved at the college level given his substantial talent, but the third round is a great spot to pick him up. If he is what I think he is, he’s going to give defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer the flexibility to do some pretty exciting things. Zimmer just has figure out how to get it out of him.
With the ever-valuable third round compensatory pick Cincy decision makers went with Missouri TE Chase Coffman. Coffman could be a pretty solid find if he’s able overcome the foot injury. His potential is high enough to justify spending the pick to bring him in to compete with Matt Sherry and Ben Utecht. In the wake of losing their best third down playmaker trying to squeeze some more receiving production out of the tight end is essential.
In round 4 they finally went center. Johnathan Luigs doesn’t appear to be starter material yet, but typically if you’re hoping to find immediate starters in the fourth round you’re in pretty bad shape. The coaches seem like they have their man in Kyle Cook. We’ll see if the kid has what it takes.
The highlights of the rest of Cincinnati’s 2009 draft class included a local punter, a fullback, and a RB with a troubled past. Bearcat fans tired of seeing Kyle Larson shank punts were no doubt excited about the fifth round pickup of college football’s best punter, Kevin Huber (Cincinnati). Fui Vakapuna in the sixth gives them some much-needed new blood at fullback and RB Bernard Scott is another player with the potential of coming in and being a third down contributor. Will the demons of Scott’s past come back to haunt him? You almost have to admire Marvin Lewis for continually stepping to the plate to take these guys with multiple arrests in their backgrounds who he thinks can help his team when he knows he’s just going to get killed in the media. I hope he doesn’t once again wind up with egg on his face and another draft choice flushed down the tubes.
Overall, this draft class could be a big one for the Bengals. In most cases their patience paid off. They were able to make a lot of solid decisions to sure up the roster. The only problem is now we have to wait at least four months before we start to get an idea of just how well they did.
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Crunch Time
One week left, and the heat is on. All kinds of news is floating around about who is rising and who is falling as teams get down to the nitty gritty and the misinformation swirls. Here’s my attempt at a full first round mock draft…
1. Detroit
Can’t you just feel the Lions fidgeting around in Detroit trying to decide what to? It’s enough of a conundrum that multiple articles have been written debating whether or not the Lions should dodge the pick by allowing the ten-minute time limit to expire without making their choice. In that case the Rams would have the chance to pick. After the Rams, the Chiefs would be able to choose and so on until the Lions made it up to the podium to turn in the card for their selection. It could present a scenario that would have the Lions’ representative sprinting to the podium jockeying for position against other teams trying to beat them to the punch. Maybe they will elect Calvin Johnson to be their card runner. Who says the draft can’t be exciting? On second thought, what if the Rams didn’t step up to the plate either? Maybe that would be the kind of embarrassment the league needs for all parties to realize something needs to be done about the rookie salary structure. In any case, we’ll assume Detroit takes their medicine and makes the pick. Which way do they go: QB Matthew Stafford or OT Jason Smith? How about option C: None of the above. Mark Sanchez has gained quite a bit of momentum since his pro day workout. His physical abilities are a notch below Stafford’s, but he’s a hard worker and I think he has a leg up in terms of mechanics and intangibles. The ESPN boys are still locked in on Stafford, but some of the NFL.com crew are starting to waiver. Who knows what will happen, but I think Sanchez is the better pro prospect.
The Pick: Mark Sanchez, QB USC
2. St. Louis
It still boils down to Aaron Curry, Jason Smith, and Eugene Monroe for the Rams. Offensive tackle is their greatest need, so they probably pass on Curry. Monroe is a slightly safer pick, but Smith has more of a chance to be great. Some have reported St. Louis staff members prefer Monroe, but in the end I think they’ll swing for the fences.
The Pick: Jason Smith, OT Baylor
3. Kansas City
Curry is the best player available, but there might be some temptation to sure up the OT position to protect their Cassel investment. Monroe along with Brandon Albert sounds good, but is either a fit on the right side? Curry is versatile enough to step in and play next to recently acquired veterans Mike Vrabel and Zach Thomas.
The Pick: Aaron Curry, OLB Wake Forest
4. Seattle
Some mock drafts have Seattle toying with the luxury of bringing in the quarterback of the future here. With a veteran like Matt Hasselbeck on the roster who has two or three years left in his tank, this might actually be the best fit for Stafford but I’m not sold Seattle will bite. Monroe is another name that has been tied to Seattle as a contingency plan for an aging veteran, but I still think the answer is Michael Crabtree. Most analysts have shied away from slotting Michael Crabtree to the Seahawks since the Houshmandzadeh signing, but Nate Burleson is more of a #3 than a #2 WR and Crabtree would give Seattle a second solid starter for when Deion Branch gets hurt again. Don’t forget, Seattle’s receiving corps has been devastated with injuries the past couple years. At one point I thought they might call up Steve Largent. I wouldn’t be surprised if Seahawks coaches feel like they need five or six starting caliber wide outs on the roster to make it through the year.
The Pick: Michael Crabtree, WR Texas Tech
5. Cleveland
Mangini’s boys have been working overtime lately. Reports have Brian Orakpo sliding a bit because of questions surrounding his durability and toughness, and rumor has it the Browns have an eye for Sanchez. In the language universally spoken by Bellichek disciples everywhere, Orakpo is a lock to land in Cleveland. A Sanchez selection isn’t quite as unrealistic as it sounds, but the Browns would have to find a buyer for Brady Quinn. All the Braylon Edwards trade talk has many thinking Crabtree here, but neither player is an option in this scenario. From there it turns into a defensive discussion with the most likely options being Orakpo or DT B.J. Raji, and it doesn’t make much sense to spend a top 5 pick to bring Raji in to caddy for Shaun Rogers.
The Pick: Brian Orakpo, LB Texas
6. Cincinnati
Since my last post, Cincy has made some solid moves retaining LB’s Brandon Johnson and Rashad Jeanty and signing on DT Tank Johnson. I like what DT Raji would bring to the defense enough that I wouldn’t be opposed to taking Raji and letting T. Johnson and Jason Shirley fight it out for a roster spot. However, if either Monroe or J. Smith is still on the board it would be tough to ignore the OT need. Monroe is a good all around player who excels at pass blocking. If they can’t count on Levi Jones, it sounds like a good fit to me. If I were Marvin Lewis, my draft board looks like this: Curry, J. Smith, Monroe, Raji, Crabtree, and Andre smith. If they move Chad Johnson, Crabtree jumps up to the third or fourth slot.
The Pick: Eugene Monroe, OT Virginia
7. Oakland
The Raiders could use upgrades on the offensive and defensive lines and need help at wide receiver. There hasn’t been much chatter about Raji landing here, but it wouldn’t be a bad fit. However, the focus will probably be on getting JaMarcus Russell help with a blocker or a receiving target. Taking OT Andre Smith would be sensible, but taking WR Jeremy Maclin would be sexy. Maclin is fast. Maclin is electric. Note: this is Al Davis picking here.
The Pick: Jeremy Maclin, WR Missouri.
8. Jacksonville
Injuries exposed the Jaguars offensive line in 2008. A. Smith would be a nice addition to the right side of the line, but this is a team that used to rely on stingy defense. They took a large step back last year and need to retool. The CB and LB positions could be spruced up, but having big strong DT’s to enhance everyone else on the unit was always their calling card. John Henderson needs a new running mate and Raji is just the solution.
The Pick: B.J. Raji, DT Boston College
Green Bay
The Packers are another team with serious question marks along the O-line due to a rash of injuries a year ago. Additionally, they are switching defenses and could use some 3-4 tailored personnel to ease the transition. The choice probably comes down to A. Smith or DE/OLB Aaron Maybin. Aaron Rogers will most likely continue to be injury prone if they don’t add some reinforcements at tackle.
The Pick: Andre Smith, OT Alabama
San Francisco
I couldn’t quite figure out why San Fran re-signed former number 1 pick QB Alex Smith, but they probably figured they’d keep him on the roster as a painful reminder NOT to draft a junior quarterback in the first round. With Stafford ruled out they will look for upgrades at OLB or OT. Sound familiar? This pick could easily be flip-flopped with the Green Bay pick. Maybin is too small to play DE in the NFL, but has a lightning quick first step making him one of the top OLB pass-rush prospects in this year’s draft class.
The Pick: Aaron Maybin, DE/OLB Penn. State
Buffalo
The good news for Buffalo fans, the Bills just added an extra first round pick. The bad news, they offloaded Jason Peters to get it, meaning the entire left side of their O-line will be playing for a different team next year. That being considered, they might give Michael Oher a look here. However, their lack luster defensive line play a year ago has most people projecting DE in this slot with Everette Brown being the leading vote getter. I have a hard time seeing Brown as an end and think the Bills will opt for a slightly more stout option. Buffalo has proven over and over they aren’t afraid to reach for players they like, and I have a feeling they turn heads again this year snatching up fast-rising prospect Robert Ayers. Ayers is a late-bloomer with enough size to hold up at DE and some experience at playing inside too.
The Pick: Robert Ayers, DE Tennessee
Denver
Does Denver have their QB of the future or will they select him here? I think they’ll make due with what they have and hold off on hand-picking someone to groom. Instead they must turn their focus to trying to improve their defensive personnel that seems ill-fit for their new 3-4 scheme. DT is at the top of the list, but Raji is gone and no one else is worthy here. Everette Brown, Rey Maualuga, and Tyson Jackson are the next best options at OLB, MLB, and DE respectively. Jackson is the name most frequently slotted to the Broncos here with analysts citing him as the optimal 3-4 DE prospect. However, I think the Broncos are equally weak at all three positions and Maualuga is better at playing middle linebacker than Jackson and Brown are at playing their positions.
The Pick: Rey Maualuga, LB USC
Washington
The Redskins could use some firepower at defensive end to help maximize the benefits of their $100 million Albert Haynesworth investment, but the stir crazy GM/owner duo of Vinny Cerrato and Daniel Snyder appear to have a different bee in their bonnet. Reports during the Jay Cutler trade-a-palooza had the Redskins brass unceremoniously throwing in the towel on Jason Campbell’s future with the hope of acquiring Denver’s disgruntled QB. Was it simply Snyder and Co. thinking Cutler was an upgrade over Campbell and nothing more? Nahh, we know better. Here’s a thought Dan: how about you let the guy play for more than one year with the same coach in the same offense before you give up on him? Fat chance. Unfortunately for Campbell, everyone’s franchise QB golden boy for 2009 has fallen right into the Redskins’ lap.
The Pick Matthew Stafford, QB Georgia
New Orleans
CB has been somewhat of an eternal need for the Saints. They have a short-term solution in place at safety with Darren Sharper and could also use an upgrade at outside linebacker. Their offense is strong but that hasn’t stopped talk of Chris Wells being an option as the perfect compliment to Reggie Bush. Will it be the Saints that take the plunge on DE/OLB E. Brown as he tumbles down the draft board? It makes more sense for them to draft Malcolm Jenkins as a #3 corner that could develop into a top shelf corner or safety.
The Pick: Malcolm Jenkins, CB Ohio State
Houston
Houston is another team with a tiny running back that might look at Wells, but there will be time to fill that need later. Their defense needs a little help. Secondary reinforcements would be nice, but it isn’t available here. E. Brown might convert to a pretty mean strong side linebacker, but Brian Cushing can play all three LB positions if needed. Versatility gets the nod.
The Pick: Brian Cushing, LB USC
San Diego
Sand Diego is said to have very few needs to fill but could use a shot in the arm on the offensive and defensive lines. The linebacking corps and the corners took a step back last year, but if Shawne Merriman and Antonio Cromartie bounce back to ’07 form those concerns should go away. Oher would give them a boost at OT while Tyson Jackson could step in and start at defensive end.
The Pick: Tyson Jackson, DE LSU
N.Y. Jets
The Jets are somewhat difficult to project with first time head coach Rex Ryan now at the helm. They need to find direction at quarterback, but this isn’t the place to find it. It would be a stiff investment to move up to make a run at the top duo and I’m pretty sure they’d be just as well off sticking with Kellen Clemens as if they were to draft Josh Freeman here. Running back could be an option, but they’ll probably wait until later to look for Thomas Jones’ long-term replacement. E. Brown could be their guy if they’re not keen on Vernon Gholston’s future. In the end, I’m going to say they turn to one of their next two weakest positions talent-wise, WR and TE. It is probably a hair early to dip into the second tier of receivers, but Darius Heyward-Bey has the kind of top-end speed and acceleration that tends to mesmerize pro scouts. He’s a raw route runner with just adequate elusiveness, decent size (6’1”), a cocky attitude, and a knack for beating defenders deep. Sounds like Chad Johnson to me. TE Brandon Pettigrew would provide decent value but receiver is a greater need.
The Pick: Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR Maryland
Denver
I wrestled with this one quite a bit. Again, with these new coaching/GM regimes it’s hard to get a feel for how they perceive their talent level at various positions within their new offensive and defensive schemes and how they’ll go about building their roster. With them having a sub-par defense trying to transition to a 3-4, I want to say they should stick with that side of the ball with this pick, but I’m struggling to find a good fit. When all else fails, take the best player available, and it would be hard to pass up the size and speed of Chris Wells. With there roster currently consisting of RB’s J.J. Arrington, Tatum Bell, Correll Buckhalter, Andre Hall, LaMont Jordan, Michael Pittman, P.J. Pope, Ryan Torain, Selvin Young, and Peyton Hillis, I realize this pick is somewhat absurd but hey that’s the name of the game.
The Pick: Chris Wells, RB OSU
Tampa Bay
There has been a lot of Josh Freeman talk here, but I don’t think he fits into the first round picture. Their defense is a full-fledged construction zone as they attempt to transition from lean and fast cover 2 to more of a stout clog-the-middle style defense. DT Peria Jerry has playmaking skills, but isn’t quite the force they’re looking for up front. Instead, I think Everette Brown will be remaining in Florida to make the transition to linebacker. As a defensive end he’s small and would get pushed around. As a 4-3 strong side linebacker his powerful lower body strength and above average pass rush burst give him the flexibility to move around and play well against the run or the pass.
The Pick: Everette Brown, DE/OLB Florida State
Detroit
If they make a quarterback the top choice, the Lions will most likely cross their fingers and hope for an OT here. In this case, their prayers have been answered. Michael Oher’s inconsistency on film is enough to drop him right into their lap. If Oher is not available, they will consider Arizona’s Eben Britton.
The Pick: Michael Oher, OT Ole’ Miss.
Philadelphia
The Eagles have made a miracle transition in one off-season from having two aging free-agent offensive tackles to what at least on paper looks like one of the more solid young tackle duos in the league. Most analysts consider a running back that can fill in for Brian Westbrook to be their next biggest need. I would be all for a Knowshon Moreno selection here, but think they can fill that need in round two if need be. They are light on tight end talent, and Brandon Pettigrew provides a combination of receiving and blocking skills that is unique. They have a tendency to go with the more receiver-like tight ends, and if that’s what they want they will certainly have the chance to pick one up later on. However, I’d be excited to see what a physical presence like Pettigrew can provide for their offense.
The Pick: Brandon Pettigrew, TE Oklahoma State
Minnesota
The Vikings could use some young depth along their line, but are in pretty good shape on defense. They are still scratching their heads trying to figure out who is their quarterback, could use patches at center and RT, and need wide receiver help. They get the most value at this point with Percy Harvin. Concerns about his durability and character drop him to the bottom half of the round, but he has the most playmaking potential in the class. Imagine the cracks he’ll be able to exploit while Adrian Peterson preoccupies defenses each week.
The Pick: Percy Harvin, WR Florida
New England
Some teams draft for value. Some teams draft for need. The Patriots always seem to find great value at the right positions. Even when they seem to reach, the player works out and everyone who criticizes them looks dumb. This year they need to get younger at linebacker and safety. USC OLB Clay Matthews just seems like a New England guy.
The Pick: Clay Matthews, OLB USC
Atlanta
The Falcons have a promising offense, but need to rebuild their D. They more or less purged their linebacking corps, need depth at corner, and are pretty long in tooth at safety. LB James Laurinaitis would be solid and Vontae Davis would be great value at CB, but safety Louis Delmas has Bob Sanders written all over him. Some people might scratch their heads with this pick, but then again I did the same thing when the Colts selected Sanders. Delmas is flying under the radar because he’s undersized and did not play at a big time school, but if he stays healthy plenty of opposing offenses will know him well in the not too distant future. He’s fierce and plays fearless.
The Pick: Louis Delmas, S Western Michigan
Miami
Ted Ginn started to come around last year, but the Dolphins still need more receiving depth to help relieve some pressure off their rushing attack. Consequently, Kenny Britt and Hakeem Nicks are tempting, but there’s too much value to be had elsewhere with Vontae Davis still available. The Dolphins are thin on corner and Davis grades out ten or fifteen picks higher if whoever drafts him is able to rein him in a little.
The Pick: Vontae Davis, CB Illinois
Baltimore
Much like New England, the Ravens have some restocking to do in terms of linebackers and DB’s. However, if anything could be taken from Baltimore’s 2008 season it’s that they won’t be able match up against a good defensive team in the playoffs unless they upgrade their offense. They definitely could use a receiver here, but I think they’ll get more bang for the buck at running back. I get the feeling they aren’t all that happy with Willis McGahee, and Moreno is a steal at this point. He is a tough runner with a solid all-round game, and if he makes it past Philly he’ll be available.
The Pick: Knowshon Moreno, RB Georgia
Indianapolis
Consensus has Indy filling in at either WR or DT here. I’m not sure any of the remaining wide-outs fit their offense too well, and if Peria Jerry is still around I don’t think it’ll take them long to turn in their selection card. Jerry fits snugly in the mold of the light but quick attacking style the Colts crave in their defensive lineman. He won’t anchor the line, but he’ll get to the quarterback.
The Pick: Peria Jerry, DT Ole Miss.
Buffalo
Having given up their left tackle for this pick, the Bills of course need a left tackle and Eben Britton is the next best available. He might take some time to develop, but he at least gives them some direction along their line.
The Pick: Eben Britton, OT Arizona
N.Y. Giants
The Giants were aggressive in free-agency locking up Brandon Jacobs with the franchise tag and pouring money into their defensive line. It has been well-documented their offense wasn’t the same without their number one receiver last year, but unless they trade for a veteran they probably aren’t going to fill the Burress void now as anyone they draft here would probably be a couple years away from contributing. Their roster is solid enough for them to have flexibility, and they have always had a soft spot for pass rushers. I think they’ll go with Larry English or Connor Barwin with the intent at developing an outside linebacker.
The Pick: Larry English, DE/OLB Northern Illinois
Tennessee
As usual, the Titans are lacking a go-to target in the passing game. They haven’t been overzealous to address that need with first round draft picks in the recent past, so we’ll go ahead and assume they won’t start now. They could use a DT to replace the Haynesworth void, but they don’t have many options for that here. They are better off strengthening depth at corner or linebacker with pint-sized Connecticut CB Darius Butler or polished defensive captain in the making James Laurinaitis. Laurinaitus is a good find at the end of the first round as someone that can be plugged in to provide a stable force in the middle of their defense.
The Pick: James Laurinaitis, MLB OSU
Arizona
I don’t know if I’ve seen a mock draft where Arizona wasn’t projected to take a running back. Unless they acquire one in a potential Anquan Boldin trade, I’ll say they go ahead and go RB. Moreno and Wells are gone so that leaves Connecticut’s Donald Brown.
The Pick: Donald Brown, RB Connecticut
Pittsburgh
The defending champs are in a position to pick the best player available, but chances are they take advantage of the strong top tier of centers to sure up the middle of their offensive line. Alex Mack is for the most part considered the best of the group, but Eric Wood is a little more physical. For a team that hangs their hat on a physical rushing attack, Wood is their man.
The Pick: Eric Wood, Louisville
1. Detroit
Can’t you just feel the Lions fidgeting around in Detroit trying to decide what to? It’s enough of a conundrum that multiple articles have been written debating whether or not the Lions should dodge the pick by allowing the ten-minute time limit to expire without making their choice. In that case the Rams would have the chance to pick. After the Rams, the Chiefs would be able to choose and so on until the Lions made it up to the podium to turn in the card for their selection. It could present a scenario that would have the Lions’ representative sprinting to the podium jockeying for position against other teams trying to beat them to the punch. Maybe they will elect Calvin Johnson to be their card runner. Who says the draft can’t be exciting? On second thought, what if the Rams didn’t step up to the plate either? Maybe that would be the kind of embarrassment the league needs for all parties to realize something needs to be done about the rookie salary structure. In any case, we’ll assume Detroit takes their medicine and makes the pick. Which way do they go: QB Matthew Stafford or OT Jason Smith? How about option C: None of the above. Mark Sanchez has gained quite a bit of momentum since his pro day workout. His physical abilities are a notch below Stafford’s, but he’s a hard worker and I think he has a leg up in terms of mechanics and intangibles. The ESPN boys are still locked in on Stafford, but some of the NFL.com crew are starting to waiver. Who knows what will happen, but I think Sanchez is the better pro prospect.
The Pick: Mark Sanchez, QB USC
2. St. Louis
It still boils down to Aaron Curry, Jason Smith, and Eugene Monroe for the Rams. Offensive tackle is their greatest need, so they probably pass on Curry. Monroe is a slightly safer pick, but Smith has more of a chance to be great. Some have reported St. Louis staff members prefer Monroe, but in the end I think they’ll swing for the fences.
The Pick: Jason Smith, OT Baylor
3. Kansas City
Curry is the best player available, but there might be some temptation to sure up the OT position to protect their Cassel investment. Monroe along with Brandon Albert sounds good, but is either a fit on the right side? Curry is versatile enough to step in and play next to recently acquired veterans Mike Vrabel and Zach Thomas.
The Pick: Aaron Curry, OLB Wake Forest
4. Seattle
Some mock drafts have Seattle toying with the luxury of bringing in the quarterback of the future here. With a veteran like Matt Hasselbeck on the roster who has two or three years left in his tank, this might actually be the best fit for Stafford but I’m not sold Seattle will bite. Monroe is another name that has been tied to Seattle as a contingency plan for an aging veteran, but I still think the answer is Michael Crabtree. Most analysts have shied away from slotting Michael Crabtree to the Seahawks since the Houshmandzadeh signing, but Nate Burleson is more of a #3 than a #2 WR and Crabtree would give Seattle a second solid starter for when Deion Branch gets hurt again. Don’t forget, Seattle’s receiving corps has been devastated with injuries the past couple years. At one point I thought they might call up Steve Largent. I wouldn’t be surprised if Seahawks coaches feel like they need five or six starting caliber wide outs on the roster to make it through the year.
The Pick: Michael Crabtree, WR Texas Tech
5. Cleveland
Mangini’s boys have been working overtime lately. Reports have Brian Orakpo sliding a bit because of questions surrounding his durability and toughness, and rumor has it the Browns have an eye for Sanchez. In the language universally spoken by Bellichek disciples everywhere, Orakpo is a lock to land in Cleveland. A Sanchez selection isn’t quite as unrealistic as it sounds, but the Browns would have to find a buyer for Brady Quinn. All the Braylon Edwards trade talk has many thinking Crabtree here, but neither player is an option in this scenario. From there it turns into a defensive discussion with the most likely options being Orakpo or DT B.J. Raji, and it doesn’t make much sense to spend a top 5 pick to bring Raji in to caddy for Shaun Rogers.
The Pick: Brian Orakpo, LB Texas
6. Cincinnati
Since my last post, Cincy has made some solid moves retaining LB’s Brandon Johnson and Rashad Jeanty and signing on DT Tank Johnson. I like what DT Raji would bring to the defense enough that I wouldn’t be opposed to taking Raji and letting T. Johnson and Jason Shirley fight it out for a roster spot. However, if either Monroe or J. Smith is still on the board it would be tough to ignore the OT need. Monroe is a good all around player who excels at pass blocking. If they can’t count on Levi Jones, it sounds like a good fit to me. If I were Marvin Lewis, my draft board looks like this: Curry, J. Smith, Monroe, Raji, Crabtree, and Andre smith. If they move Chad Johnson, Crabtree jumps up to the third or fourth slot.
The Pick: Eugene Monroe, OT Virginia
7. Oakland
The Raiders could use upgrades on the offensive and defensive lines and need help at wide receiver. There hasn’t been much chatter about Raji landing here, but it wouldn’t be a bad fit. However, the focus will probably be on getting JaMarcus Russell help with a blocker or a receiving target. Taking OT Andre Smith would be sensible, but taking WR Jeremy Maclin would be sexy. Maclin is fast. Maclin is electric. Note: this is Al Davis picking here.
The Pick: Jeremy Maclin, WR Missouri.
8. Jacksonville
Injuries exposed the Jaguars offensive line in 2008. A. Smith would be a nice addition to the right side of the line, but this is a team that used to rely on stingy defense. They took a large step back last year and need to retool. The CB and LB positions could be spruced up, but having big strong DT’s to enhance everyone else on the unit was always their calling card. John Henderson needs a new running mate and Raji is just the solution.
The Pick: B.J. Raji, DT Boston College
Green Bay
The Packers are another team with serious question marks along the O-line due to a rash of injuries a year ago. Additionally, they are switching defenses and could use some 3-4 tailored personnel to ease the transition. The choice probably comes down to A. Smith or DE/OLB Aaron Maybin. Aaron Rogers will most likely continue to be injury prone if they don’t add some reinforcements at tackle.
The Pick: Andre Smith, OT Alabama
San Francisco
I couldn’t quite figure out why San Fran re-signed former number 1 pick QB Alex Smith, but they probably figured they’d keep him on the roster as a painful reminder NOT to draft a junior quarterback in the first round. With Stafford ruled out they will look for upgrades at OLB or OT. Sound familiar? This pick could easily be flip-flopped with the Green Bay pick. Maybin is too small to play DE in the NFL, but has a lightning quick first step making him one of the top OLB pass-rush prospects in this year’s draft class.
The Pick: Aaron Maybin, DE/OLB Penn. State
Buffalo
The good news for Buffalo fans, the Bills just added an extra first round pick. The bad news, they offloaded Jason Peters to get it, meaning the entire left side of their O-line will be playing for a different team next year. That being considered, they might give Michael Oher a look here. However, their lack luster defensive line play a year ago has most people projecting DE in this slot with Everette Brown being the leading vote getter. I have a hard time seeing Brown as an end and think the Bills will opt for a slightly more stout option. Buffalo has proven over and over they aren’t afraid to reach for players they like, and I have a feeling they turn heads again this year snatching up fast-rising prospect Robert Ayers. Ayers is a late-bloomer with enough size to hold up at DE and some experience at playing inside too.
The Pick: Robert Ayers, DE Tennessee
Denver
Does Denver have their QB of the future or will they select him here? I think they’ll make due with what they have and hold off on hand-picking someone to groom. Instead they must turn their focus to trying to improve their defensive personnel that seems ill-fit for their new 3-4 scheme. DT is at the top of the list, but Raji is gone and no one else is worthy here. Everette Brown, Rey Maualuga, and Tyson Jackson are the next best options at OLB, MLB, and DE respectively. Jackson is the name most frequently slotted to the Broncos here with analysts citing him as the optimal 3-4 DE prospect. However, I think the Broncos are equally weak at all three positions and Maualuga is better at playing middle linebacker than Jackson and Brown are at playing their positions.
The Pick: Rey Maualuga, LB USC
Washington
The Redskins could use some firepower at defensive end to help maximize the benefits of their $100 million Albert Haynesworth investment, but the stir crazy GM/owner duo of Vinny Cerrato and Daniel Snyder appear to have a different bee in their bonnet. Reports during the Jay Cutler trade-a-palooza had the Redskins brass unceremoniously throwing in the towel on Jason Campbell’s future with the hope of acquiring Denver’s disgruntled QB. Was it simply Snyder and Co. thinking Cutler was an upgrade over Campbell and nothing more? Nahh, we know better. Here’s a thought Dan: how about you let the guy play for more than one year with the same coach in the same offense before you give up on him? Fat chance. Unfortunately for Campbell, everyone’s franchise QB golden boy for 2009 has fallen right into the Redskins’ lap.
The Pick Matthew Stafford, QB Georgia
New Orleans
CB has been somewhat of an eternal need for the Saints. They have a short-term solution in place at safety with Darren Sharper and could also use an upgrade at outside linebacker. Their offense is strong but that hasn’t stopped talk of Chris Wells being an option as the perfect compliment to Reggie Bush. Will it be the Saints that take the plunge on DE/OLB E. Brown as he tumbles down the draft board? It makes more sense for them to draft Malcolm Jenkins as a #3 corner that could develop into a top shelf corner or safety.
The Pick: Malcolm Jenkins, CB Ohio State
Houston
Houston is another team with a tiny running back that might look at Wells, but there will be time to fill that need later. Their defense needs a little help. Secondary reinforcements would be nice, but it isn’t available here. E. Brown might convert to a pretty mean strong side linebacker, but Brian Cushing can play all three LB positions if needed. Versatility gets the nod.
The Pick: Brian Cushing, LB USC
San Diego
Sand Diego is said to have very few needs to fill but could use a shot in the arm on the offensive and defensive lines. The linebacking corps and the corners took a step back last year, but if Shawne Merriman and Antonio Cromartie bounce back to ’07 form those concerns should go away. Oher would give them a boost at OT while Tyson Jackson could step in and start at defensive end.
The Pick: Tyson Jackson, DE LSU
N.Y. Jets
The Jets are somewhat difficult to project with first time head coach Rex Ryan now at the helm. They need to find direction at quarterback, but this isn’t the place to find it. It would be a stiff investment to move up to make a run at the top duo and I’m pretty sure they’d be just as well off sticking with Kellen Clemens as if they were to draft Josh Freeman here. Running back could be an option, but they’ll probably wait until later to look for Thomas Jones’ long-term replacement. E. Brown could be their guy if they’re not keen on Vernon Gholston’s future. In the end, I’m going to say they turn to one of their next two weakest positions talent-wise, WR and TE. It is probably a hair early to dip into the second tier of receivers, but Darius Heyward-Bey has the kind of top-end speed and acceleration that tends to mesmerize pro scouts. He’s a raw route runner with just adequate elusiveness, decent size (6’1”), a cocky attitude, and a knack for beating defenders deep. Sounds like Chad Johnson to me. TE Brandon Pettigrew would provide decent value but receiver is a greater need.
The Pick: Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR Maryland
Denver
I wrestled with this one quite a bit. Again, with these new coaching/GM regimes it’s hard to get a feel for how they perceive their talent level at various positions within their new offensive and defensive schemes and how they’ll go about building their roster. With them having a sub-par defense trying to transition to a 3-4, I want to say they should stick with that side of the ball with this pick, but I’m struggling to find a good fit. When all else fails, take the best player available, and it would be hard to pass up the size and speed of Chris Wells. With there roster currently consisting of RB’s J.J. Arrington, Tatum Bell, Correll Buckhalter, Andre Hall, LaMont Jordan, Michael Pittman, P.J. Pope, Ryan Torain, Selvin Young, and Peyton Hillis, I realize this pick is somewhat absurd but hey that’s the name of the game.
The Pick: Chris Wells, RB OSU
Tampa Bay
There has been a lot of Josh Freeman talk here, but I don’t think he fits into the first round picture. Their defense is a full-fledged construction zone as they attempt to transition from lean and fast cover 2 to more of a stout clog-the-middle style defense. DT Peria Jerry has playmaking skills, but isn’t quite the force they’re looking for up front. Instead, I think Everette Brown will be remaining in Florida to make the transition to linebacker. As a defensive end he’s small and would get pushed around. As a 4-3 strong side linebacker his powerful lower body strength and above average pass rush burst give him the flexibility to move around and play well against the run or the pass.
The Pick: Everette Brown, DE/OLB Florida State
Detroit
If they make a quarterback the top choice, the Lions will most likely cross their fingers and hope for an OT here. In this case, their prayers have been answered. Michael Oher’s inconsistency on film is enough to drop him right into their lap. If Oher is not available, they will consider Arizona’s Eben Britton.
The Pick: Michael Oher, OT Ole’ Miss.
Philadelphia
The Eagles have made a miracle transition in one off-season from having two aging free-agent offensive tackles to what at least on paper looks like one of the more solid young tackle duos in the league. Most analysts consider a running back that can fill in for Brian Westbrook to be their next biggest need. I would be all for a Knowshon Moreno selection here, but think they can fill that need in round two if need be. They are light on tight end talent, and Brandon Pettigrew provides a combination of receiving and blocking skills that is unique. They have a tendency to go with the more receiver-like tight ends, and if that’s what they want they will certainly have the chance to pick one up later on. However, I’d be excited to see what a physical presence like Pettigrew can provide for their offense.
The Pick: Brandon Pettigrew, TE Oklahoma State
Minnesota
The Vikings could use some young depth along their line, but are in pretty good shape on defense. They are still scratching their heads trying to figure out who is their quarterback, could use patches at center and RT, and need wide receiver help. They get the most value at this point with Percy Harvin. Concerns about his durability and character drop him to the bottom half of the round, but he has the most playmaking potential in the class. Imagine the cracks he’ll be able to exploit while Adrian Peterson preoccupies defenses each week.
The Pick: Percy Harvin, WR Florida
New England
Some teams draft for value. Some teams draft for need. The Patriots always seem to find great value at the right positions. Even when they seem to reach, the player works out and everyone who criticizes them looks dumb. This year they need to get younger at linebacker and safety. USC OLB Clay Matthews just seems like a New England guy.
The Pick: Clay Matthews, OLB USC
Atlanta
The Falcons have a promising offense, but need to rebuild their D. They more or less purged their linebacking corps, need depth at corner, and are pretty long in tooth at safety. LB James Laurinaitis would be solid and Vontae Davis would be great value at CB, but safety Louis Delmas has Bob Sanders written all over him. Some people might scratch their heads with this pick, but then again I did the same thing when the Colts selected Sanders. Delmas is flying under the radar because he’s undersized and did not play at a big time school, but if he stays healthy plenty of opposing offenses will know him well in the not too distant future. He’s fierce and plays fearless.
The Pick: Louis Delmas, S Western Michigan
Miami
Ted Ginn started to come around last year, but the Dolphins still need more receiving depth to help relieve some pressure off their rushing attack. Consequently, Kenny Britt and Hakeem Nicks are tempting, but there’s too much value to be had elsewhere with Vontae Davis still available. The Dolphins are thin on corner and Davis grades out ten or fifteen picks higher if whoever drafts him is able to rein him in a little.
The Pick: Vontae Davis, CB Illinois
Baltimore
Much like New England, the Ravens have some restocking to do in terms of linebackers and DB’s. However, if anything could be taken from Baltimore’s 2008 season it’s that they won’t be able match up against a good defensive team in the playoffs unless they upgrade their offense. They definitely could use a receiver here, but I think they’ll get more bang for the buck at running back. I get the feeling they aren’t all that happy with Willis McGahee, and Moreno is a steal at this point. He is a tough runner with a solid all-round game, and if he makes it past Philly he’ll be available.
The Pick: Knowshon Moreno, RB Georgia
Indianapolis
Consensus has Indy filling in at either WR or DT here. I’m not sure any of the remaining wide-outs fit their offense too well, and if Peria Jerry is still around I don’t think it’ll take them long to turn in their selection card. Jerry fits snugly in the mold of the light but quick attacking style the Colts crave in their defensive lineman. He won’t anchor the line, but he’ll get to the quarterback.
The Pick: Peria Jerry, DT Ole Miss.
Buffalo
Having given up their left tackle for this pick, the Bills of course need a left tackle and Eben Britton is the next best available. He might take some time to develop, but he at least gives them some direction along their line.
The Pick: Eben Britton, OT Arizona
N.Y. Giants
The Giants were aggressive in free-agency locking up Brandon Jacobs with the franchise tag and pouring money into their defensive line. It has been well-documented their offense wasn’t the same without their number one receiver last year, but unless they trade for a veteran they probably aren’t going to fill the Burress void now as anyone they draft here would probably be a couple years away from contributing. Their roster is solid enough for them to have flexibility, and they have always had a soft spot for pass rushers. I think they’ll go with Larry English or Connor Barwin with the intent at developing an outside linebacker.
The Pick: Larry English, DE/OLB Northern Illinois
Tennessee
As usual, the Titans are lacking a go-to target in the passing game. They haven’t been overzealous to address that need with first round draft picks in the recent past, so we’ll go ahead and assume they won’t start now. They could use a DT to replace the Haynesworth void, but they don’t have many options for that here. They are better off strengthening depth at corner or linebacker with pint-sized Connecticut CB Darius Butler or polished defensive captain in the making James Laurinaitis. Laurinaitus is a good find at the end of the first round as someone that can be plugged in to provide a stable force in the middle of their defense.
The Pick: James Laurinaitis, MLB OSU
Arizona
I don’t know if I’ve seen a mock draft where Arizona wasn’t projected to take a running back. Unless they acquire one in a potential Anquan Boldin trade, I’ll say they go ahead and go RB. Moreno and Wells are gone so that leaves Connecticut’s Donald Brown.
The Pick: Donald Brown, RB Connecticut
Pittsburgh
The defending champs are in a position to pick the best player available, but chances are they take advantage of the strong top tier of centers to sure up the middle of their offensive line. Alex Mack is for the most part considered the best of the group, but Eric Wood is a little more physical. For a team that hangs their hat on a physical rushing attack, Wood is their man.
The Pick: Eric Wood, Louisville
Sunday, April 5, 2009
Sneaky Good?
Low Budget or Low Profile:
Just about one month out and the draft landscape is filling in significantly. Pro days are almost over and the combine and free-agency have made imprints on rankings and mock drafts everywhere. At first glance, the 2009 draft class appears sub-par compared to previous years. In general, the elite prospects aren’t quite as strong. I would compare the top ten players in this class to prospects in the five to fifteen range of most other drafts. At quarterback, typically the heart of a given draft class, there are more concerns with the best players in this year’s crop than usual and the position has almost no depth behind the top three prospects. Yet, when you dig deeper the 2009 class appears to be flying under the radar. While it is weak as far as quarterbacks, top-end corners, guards, and ILB’s the overall depth is pretty solid if not above average. Tight end, center, wide receiver, and running back all seem to be especially strong.
Not only does this tight end class boast a guy at the top with better blocking skills than anyone has seen from a college tight end in years in Brandon Pettigrew, but the number of athletic pass-catching types behind him is ridiculous. Shawn Nelson (Southern Miss), Jared Cook (South Carolina), James Casey (Rice), Travis Beckum (Wisconsin), Chase Coffman (Missouri), Cornelius Ingram (Florida); the list goes on and on and that’s leaving out players with day 2 talent. Last year there weren’t any WR’s in the first round. This year not only could there be five or six including two in the top 10, but the later rounds are littered with solid players as well. Kenny Britt (Rutgers) and Brian Robiskie (Ohio St.) probably will go in round 2. Brandon Tate (North Carolina), Juaquin Iglesias (Oklahoma), and Mohamed Massaquoi (Georgia) have round 3 potential, while Derrick Williams (Penn St.), Demetrius Byrd (Oregon), and Mike Thomas (Arizona) could last to round 4. Looking to take a flyer? How about 6’6” Ramses Barden from Cal-Poly in round 6 or 7? Who knows where Pat White (West Virginia) fits in and I’m just hitting the highlights here.
Running back is interesting because the depth is just as strong, but league-wide it is recognized as the easiest position to transition players from college to the pro’s. Teams realize they can find a starting running back on day 2 and it seems to have really influenced the draft stock of the top-end players. Chris Wells is easily in the top ten talent-wise in this draft class. His name has started to heat up lately, but until now he has hovered in the 20 to 31 range in mock drafts. Wells, Knowshon Moreno, and Connecticut’s Donald Brown should all go in the first round, but there are a lot of solid players to be had from there. Looking for a big back in the second round? Think Shonn Green (Iowa) or Glenn Coffee (Alabama). Need someone smaller with some quickness? Go with LeSean McCoy (Pittsburgh) or Jeremiah Johnson (Oregon). Day 2 is covered as well. Teams can look to Andre Brown (NC State) and Rashad Jennings (Liberty) for power or Cedric Peerman (Virginia) and Kory Sheets (Purdue) for speed. Sprinkle in Javon Ringer (Michigan State), Mike Goodson (Texas A&M), James Davis (Clemson), P.J. Hill (Wisconsin), and Ian Johnson (Boise St.) and there are options scattered all the way through the seventh round. I’m not saying all these guys are going to be productive pro players, but history has proven any one of them could be the next Terrell Davis.
The defensive side of the ball isn’t quite as staggering, but there are still a lot of intriguing players available. There are almost no top-tier defensive backs, but there could be some decent finds after the first round (more on that later during Bengals talk). The USC boys at OLB will go in the 15 to 25 range while DE/OLB hybrids Connor Barwin (Go Cats!) and Larry English (Northern Illinois) probably will land somewhere in the bottom of the first round. From there, there is a lot of value if the right player gets drafted into the right system. In the second round, Utah’s blue-collar but undersized Paul Kruger and an OLB coming out of Virginia’s 3-4 system, Clint Sintim, will look to find homes. On day 2, Tyrone McKenzie is a player trying to prove his outstanding production at mid-major school South Florida will translate to the NFL, Marcus Freeman could wind up a solid stand-in on the weak side for somebody, Cody Brown (Connecticut) is a 243 lb DE who needs to transition to linebacker, and amazingly Kaluka Maiava will look to be the fourth USC linebacker selected. Having posted the fastest DE 40 time at the combine, Richmond’s Lawerence Sidbury might be the sleeper of the bunch. An unpolished poor man’s Brian Orakpo, he has also crept into second round discussions. Michael Johnson (Georgia Tech) is a wild card with first round physical abilities and third round intangibles who probably winds up coming off the board at the end of the first. DE’s David Veikune (Hawaii) and Kyle Moore (USC) are additional mid-round prospects to watch out for. Inside, Peria Jerry is a 4-3 DT that won’t make it out of the first round. Evander Hood (Missouri) and Ron Brace (Boston College) both hope to make the second round, while Sen’Derrick Marks (Auburn) and Fili Moala (USC) represent solid day 2 talent. Teams looking for a 3-4 defensive end should consider the Youtube phenom with DE and DT experience from San Jose St., Jarron Gilbert.
All in all, the 2009 class does not have as much blue-chip talent as normal, but its extensive depth should have clubs finding starters much deeper into the draft. It will be interesting to see how things unfold.
Mockin’ It Up:
1. Detroit:
While free agency and the combine have brought the draft picture into focus quite a bit, there is still some ambiguity as to how the Lions will shape the start of round one with their first pick. The whole world is still mocking Mathew Stafford as the top pick while Detroit coaches and front office members continue to take the obligatory hard-line stance they haven’t made up their minds yet. Still the favorite, draft pundits contend Stafford has all the tools, and needing a long-term answer at QB Detroit won’t be able to pass him up. I agree, but keep thinking back to my impressions while watching Stafford’s Georgia Bulldogs face off against Michigan State in the Capital One Bowl. He made some good throws, but overall it just looked like he was a long way from being ready for the NFL. Any time the Spartan defense was able to apply even the slightest amount of pressure the result was a broken play. Bad throw one play. Bad decision the next. If his teammates didn’t give him time or get wide open, Stafford showed very little ability to make things happen on his own. His supporters will say it’s perfectly okay for him to sit his first year, but I’m thinking he needs two or three. We’re talking Aaron Rodgers territory. That kind of timeline just doesn’t jive with what is expected from a number one overall pick. Maybe it was just one game and the guy was rusty, but because not many people are predicting anyone besides Stafford number one, we’ll pretend Lions’ scouts take my side and leave grooming the Georgia QB as someone else’s problem.
That leaves Aaron Curry and Jason Smith. Curry is considered the best player in the draft right now, but whether or not he’s the best prospect is arguable. High-ceiling vs. low floor debates aside, I’m not sure that selecting Curry number one overall is even economically feasible. First off, Detroit just pulled the trigger on a trade with Seattle for star linebacker Julian Peterson. Interestingly enough, the Seahawks most likely made the deal to alleviate the financial strain of having big contracts at all three linebacker slots between Peterson, franchised player Leroy Hill, and all-pro Lofa Tatupu. Acquiring Peterson gives the Lions a second well-paid linebacker along with the team’s top defensive player and former first round pick, Ernie Sims. Sims could be sent packing to pave the way for a Curry selection but I see that as a long shot at this point. Even if you don’t take into account other players on their roster, the minimum contract typically tied to the number one overall pick would vault Curry to the top of the league-wide linebacker salary food chain with some room to spare. I think Curry is almost guaranteed to be a solid player that will probably make a couple of pro-bowls, but it’s hard to commit number one draft pick salary cap resources to a linebacker unless you think the guy is the second coming of Lawrence Taylor. Unless Lions negotiators convince Curry to sign for a more sensible contract, I don’t think he’ll end up in Detroit. By process of elimination we’re down to Jason Smith. While not as talented as the past couple top OT’s, he’s a hard working kid with good character. If drafting Stafford first overall is like playing Russian roulette and drafting Curry is like paying for a Porsche and getting a Mustang, then drafting Jason Smith is the equivalent of placing an all-in bet with 2-1 odds of winning. It’s not the ideal situation when you’re talking about $30 million, but the Lions are just going to have to make the best of a bad situation by taking a calculated risk on the OT from Baylor.
The Pick: Jason Smith, OT Baylor
2. St. Louis
Continuing on with this Stafford-doesn’t-get-drafted-first exercise, the Rams are up next. Ironically, Aaron Curry might actually be just the kind of player St. Louis needs to nudge their chronically poor defense into the land of respectability. Unfortunately, they can’t wait to start rebuilding their O-line any longer. They’ve cut ties with Orlando pace and even stop-gap free agents like Khalif Barnes and Tre Thomas have been scooped up off the free-agent market. There are two tackles most people feel pretty comfortable slotting into the top five, so picking second it is impossible for the Rams to have their LT of the future snatched from underneath their nose like last year. Eugene Monroe might not have scored as well as Jason Smith on the bubbly personality portion of the combine, but then again I’m pretty sure it’s okay for an offensive lineman not to be Mr. Congeniality. He isn’t going to overpower people at the next level but is generally considered a more well-rounded blocker right now than Smith. The Rams finally get their heir apparent to anchor their left side, can leave Alex Barron at RT, and should plan on adding a guard later on. If they don’t love Monroe, don’t rule out Michael Crabtree here.
The Pick: Eugene Monroe, OT Virginia
3. Kansas City
New G.M. Scott Pioli hacked off a major chunk of the uncertainty surrounding the K.C. roster by bringing in Matt Cassell to helm the offense for the foreseeable future. I don’t feel as warm and fuzzy about Cassell as most, but Pioli certainly is in as good of a position as anyone to make that call. With the trade, their list of needs shrinks to OLB, OL, DE, and depth at CB. Certainly they could stand to upgrade in other spots and have to deal with disgruntled stars at TE and RB, but in general they need to develop a linebacking corps and/or D-line capable improving their abysmal 2008 sack total and finish rebuilding their offensive line. So far, the top two OT’s are gone and it’s way too early to start talking about the enigmatic Andre Smith and the inconsistent Michael Oher. The defensive end position of the 3-4 defense variety also shouldn’t factor into any top five discussions. That leaves OLB. Fortunately for the Chiefs there happens to be one, highly regarded by almost everyone, ripe for the picking. It seems ridiculous that drafting Curry number one overall could be considered almost financially unfathomable while drafting him third is a no-brainer, but that’s the nature of the beast. It is a delicate balance trying to fit the out of whack rookie salary structure into the fragile financial framework of a franchise. I might be over-weighting the problem of top pick salaries to some extent, but it is definitely an area that needs reform. Anyway, acquiring Mike Vrabel gives K.C. the flexibility to look elsewhere should one of the top OT’s be available, but I think Curry is a shoe-in.
The Pick: Aaron Curry, LB Wake Forest
4. Seattle
If Stafford actually doesn’t go number 1, it will be interesting to see if Seattle gives him a look with Matt Hasselbeck starting to show some wear and tear. In the end, Seattle probably sees themselves as not that far from contending and will go with a player they think can contribute now. The trendy pick for the Seahawks in the mock draft world these days is Boston College DT B.J. Raji. However, the recent trade sending DT Cory Redding from Detroit to Seattle combined with the previous free agency signing of DT Colin Cole shakes things up a bit. Monroe would make an awfully nice insurance policy for the aging Walter Jones, and will draw consideration if available. That brings us back to where most people started with Seattle: Michael Crabtree. The buzz on Crabtree has settled since he showed up at the combine measuring 6’1” with a fractured foot. A lot of people are dropping him in the 7 to 10 range. Personally, if that happens the team that eventually snags him should be doing back flips. Regardless of injury status he’s still the top offensive player in the draft. The Larry Fitzgerald comparisons that floated around early on are a little far-fetched, but you’re still talking about a hard-working kid with loads of talent that is going to make a lot of catches in the NFL. Think more along the lines of a bigger stronger version of Marvin Harrison.
The Pick: Michael Crabtree, WR Texas Tech
5. Cleveland
What’s on tap for the Brownies in their first draft under the direction of the ManGenius? Cleveland’s new Coach/GM combo, so far, have put together a solid off-season seemingly mimicking what Miami was able to accomplish last year. Step one: offload players that might resist drinking the cool-aid of a new regime. Not only did the Browns potentially avoid future headaches with the Kellen Winslow trade, but they managed to extract pretty decent value from Tampa obtaining a 2nd round pick and a 2010 5th rounder. Step two: take an active approach to free-agency. The keys here: don’t overestimate player value and don’t over commit resources. Endless teams (and analysts for that matter) fall into the trap that different means improvement. Year after year mid-level free agents sign for three or four million dollars to plug holes they just aren’t capable of filling. Sure sometimes players develop or excel in a new system, but nine times out of ten an average player on one team is still going to be an average player on a new team. At the same time, bringing in high-level players is often inefficient and limits roster depth. The 2008 Browns allocated huge chunks of salary and draft resources to make a big splash bringing in players like Shaun Rogers, Corey Williams, and Donte Stallworth. The season went south for various reasons, and the team is left trying to recover from the void of having added little to no young talent due to lack of draft picks. Go after the role players to minimize having to draft players based on position then pick the best players available to come in and compete with or develop behind the veterans. Mangini has started to make the team his hand-picking players, several from his old team, to bridge gaps at positions such as TE and MLB. Additionally they’ve added depth along their already solid offensive and defensive lines with DT C.J. Mosley and O-linemen John St. Clair and Floyd Womack. The biggest hiccup has been Mangini reportedly getting off on the wrong foot with Rogers, his all-pro NT. After all the moves Cleveland’s biggest priorities in the draft will be to look for DB help for their average secondary and find someone who can juice up the pass rush, preferably an outside linebacker. It isn’t likely they’ll go after a corner in round 1 barring a trade-down as neither Malcolm Jenkins nor Vontae Davis have done enough to warrant the price tag of top ten status. Cleveland could flirt with the idea of Raji or Crabtree, especially if they decide they have to get rid of Rogers or Braylon Edwards, but unless they feel they don’t have any other options I think they resist the temptation. Mangini appeared to whiff (time will tell) on picking the dynamic pass-rushing catalyst critical to his 3-4 defense in last year’s draft with Vernon Gholston. He could be a little gun shy searching for the same type of player in ’09, but the guy comes off a bit too arrogant for me to think last year has any effect on how he is thinking today. I think he’s fallen in love with one of the hybrid DE’s and won’t hesitate to pull the trigger.
The Pick: Brian Orakpo, DE/OLB Texas
6. Cincinnati
Closing in on one month out and the Bengals are sitting in an interesting spot. Most of the personnel question marks that swirled heading into the off-season have been answered and a few more have been raised.
Keeping Houshmandzadah probably would have made a lot of people feel better, but in the end I think they’re getting out at the right time. The guy had hamstring problems early in his career. They started to crop up again last year, and he wasn’t exactly the picture of durability before that. It is a blow losing their most consistent offensive player, but they’ve managed to sign on a capable replacement in former Jet Laveranues Coles. I’m curious to see how Coles fits into the offense. He hasn’t been as productive as Housmandzadah in recent years but has plenty of ability and a little bit of a different skill set than T.J. featuring more downfield potential. Time will tell. I think both receivers can still be productive. It will just be a mater of which 30+ year old veteran will be able to stay healthy. Stacy Andrews deciding to head east to block on the same line as his brother leaves another sizeable void in the offense. I see Andrews’ departure just as he started to blossom as disappointing, but probably inevitable. They tried for three years to reach a long-term agreement with him and were unsuccessful. They were going to have to overpay to keep him. Besides, bad knee injuries for offensive lineman are scary. I’m not sure why, but everyone in Philadelphia seems to be penciling Andrews in as their opening day Jon Runyan replacement. Hopefully he bounces back, but I have a hard time seeing it happen without at least a trip to the PUP.
It wasn’t all subtractions in free agency. As mentioned, the Coles signing provides a big boost for the receiving corps. Assuming Ocho Cinco bounces back and stays away from the edge of the cliffs of insanity he seems to have been tip-toeing along the last two years and Chris Henry stays out of prison, the Bengals have pretty solid number one, two, and three receivers. Throw in positive reports regarding strides taken by ’08 draft picks Jerome Simpson and Andre Caldwell and the unit looks miles ahead of where it was last year. The running back situation has been solidified with the decision to reward Cedric Benson with another contract after a strong finish to the season. Off the top of my head, I think they would have been hard pressed to come up with a better option for a starting RB going into 2009. Hopefully Benson continues his career turn around and remains a positive locker room contributor. Another player signed off the street that turned some heads in the second half of last season was safety Chris Crocker. Retaining Crocker was a positive step towards building on the defensive momentum generated in their last five games. Throw in a backup RB, a backup QB, and a franchise tag to keep their kicker and I’d say the Cincinnati front office held their own this off-season.
Marvin Lewis has indicated they would like to add one or two more free agents, but unless they part ways with a well-paid veteran like Ocho Cinco or Levi Jones I’m not sure they can spend more than $1 to $3 million. How does that frame up the draft picture? Draft discussion in Cincinnati has to start with the O-line. It’s anyone’s guess what the starting offensive line is going to look like and that kind of uncertainty doesn’t bode well for a line that struggled to run block and pass protect in 2008. Just about everyone not named Marvin Lewis has seemingly written off Jones. Whether or not they’re planning on parting ways (via trade or straight up release) with their once reliable LT, Lewis insists that, right now, Jones is the starter on the left side. Whitworth could be the replacement at LT, leaving a whole at LG. Anthony Collins showed signs he was up for the task but that leaves Scott Kooistra all by his lonesome vying for the RT spot and I don’t think anyone would be keen on that scenario. To make matters worse, it’s looking more and more like coaches plan to fill the center vacancy with either of the inexperienced youngsters Dan Santuci or Kyle Cook. In that case it makes since to leave a smart experienced guard like Whitworth right in place. It isn’t hard to see why OT has been the most common position slotted to the Bengals in mock drafts. Despite fears that the offense can’t be effective without adding a top ten talent on draft day, I don’t think it’s going to happen. Four of the five teams picking ahead of them have offensive line needs making it likely both J. Smith and Monroe won’t last. Oher has fallen to 15 to 25 status. A. Smith is exactly what they need (mauling LT with strong RT potential) but he’s still a gamble at 6 having thoroughly proven how unprepared he is to become a professional. I think they have to try to find an OT/G combo guy for the right price to add depth while drafting two to three linemen after the first round as insurance in case Jones doesn’t bounce back or Whitworth has to play tackle. If they pass on OT in round 1, they have some options later. OT’s Eben Britton (Arizona) and William Beaty (Connecticut) are solid second round talents, but will probably be gone by the end of the first round as teams tend to overdraft on tackles (especially at the end of the first round). Jamon Meredith (South Carolina) is an option, but the top guard who also has tackle experience, Adrew Levitre (Oregon State), might be a better fit. Oklahoma players Phil Loadholt and Duke Robinson should enter into the day 2 equation. Considering the lack of experience at center, I wouldn’t mind seeing the Bengals go that direction at the top of round two as at least one of the top trio of Alex Mack (California), Max Unger (Oregon), and Eric Wood (Louisville) should be available.
Across the rest of the offense it’s not time to look for a new quarterback yet. As mentioned above, the receiving corps looks solid right now. Crabtree would be interesting. It would be tough to pass up on the closest thing to a sure all-pro the 2009 class has to offer, but it would create a log jam at receiver when they could use help elsewhere. If they offload Ocho Cino, I might go as far as to say I’d welcome the pick. Otherwise I’m not sure they go receiver at any point in the 2009 draft. A young running back will probably be added at some point, but the Benson and Dede Dorsey signings along with the bottomless depth available at the position allow that pick to be put off until the second day. The only fullback on the roster is a converted tight end. One will probably be added, but hopefully coaches find a free agent they like rather than using a pick to bring somebody in.
On the other side of the ball, you have to wonder where Mike Zimmer is going squeeze about ten more sacks out of his defense. They need a guy that can be consistently disruptive causing sleepless nights for opposing offensive coordinators everywhere. Unfortunately, that type of player doesn’t grow on trees. As Pittsburgh has proven over and over again, the way to do it is draft depth into all positions and every once in a while catch lighting a bottle a la James Harrison.
While the starters are set at cornerback, the Bengals could use an upgrade in talent at the number 3 and 4 slots. Undersized corners Darius Butler (Connecticut) and Alphonso Smith (Wake Forest) have enough talent to slip into the bottom of round 1 but would make excellent value at the top of round 2. Once thought to be one of the top corners in the class based off in-game performances, Vanderbilt’s D.J. Moore has slipped due to poor showings at workouts during position drills. Moore along with Sean Smith (Utah), and Jarius Byrd (Oregon) would be intriguing picks if they manage to fall into the third round. For the balance of day two, some analysts have shown a lot of curiosity towards the athleticism of Ohio St.’s Donald Washington. Other names to watch out for are Coye Francies (San Jose St.) and Cary Harris (USC) in round 4, Victor Harris (Virginia tech) in round 5, Mike Mickens (Go Cats!) and Asher Allen (Georgia) in round 6, and Sherrod Martin (Troy) in the round 7/free agent range.
As long as Crocker continues to play at a high level, the Bengals should be set at safety. They’ve kicked around the idea of bringing in Roy Williams. It would be interesting, but they’d have to free up some cap room and I’m afraid which other player at the position it would squeeze off the roster.
While the linebacker positions are not a glaring need, it is an area that could be upgraded. I’m excited to see what Keith Rivers brings to the table in year two on the weak side. It never hurts to have depth, but rather than dipping into the draft they’d be better served making sure they bring back the already proven Brandon Johnson, a restricted free agent. Improbably, Dhani Jones is still locked in as the leader in the middle of the unit. He has played admirably for two years, but how long will it last and who’s the backup? Rey Maualuga doesn’t appear to be an option in the first round at this point. Scouts have had lots of time to pick apart his game tape and seem to be forgetting him stampeding with a ferocity that few human beings can match into holes to ruin the days of many running backs. They see Maualuga plunging into the wrong holes now and then and have started to wonder whether he has the speed and fluidity to hold up in coverage. Realistically, I don’t think he falls outside the top 18 as some predict, but he’s not going to factor in at 6. There isn’t a whole lot of depth at interior linebacker, so unless they like Jason Phillips (TCU) or Jasper Brinkley (South Carolina) in round 3 or 4, they should just make a guess at somebody they think can play special teams in the fourth or fifth round and hope for the best.
At strong side, Rashard Jeanty is a solid performer who plays hurt. As a restricted free agent, it would be nice to find someone with a little more punch and keep Jeanty around as the ideal backup. Curry will be gone so it comes down to whether they will once again try to convert an undersized defensive end into a playmaking, quarterback devouring outside linebacker. To me it stings to have to draft David Pollack again in the first round, but if they decide to give it a shot it boils down to the top three pass rushers: Orakpo, Aaron Maybin, and Everette Brown. There seems to be a select minority enamored enough with Brown to consider him top-5-worthy. He is tough to gage because physically he’s more of a 18 to 25 guy, but people see his work ethic and pass-rushing production playing in a BCS conference and shovel him to the top half of the round. He’s a little on the short side and most highlights I’ve seen show him simply running around the edge against slow college OT’s. I slot him as a 13 to 18 prospect and hope the Bengals avoid him. He feels a little too much like Renard Wilson (smallish FSU defensive end drafted by the Bengals to play linebacker for those of you not painfully familiar with the misery of Cinncianti fans in the 90’s). In the 250 lb range, Maybin is the lightest of the three but is considered the best pass rusher with an extremely quick first step. He would almost definitely have to play linebacker, but his skill set suggests keeping him close to the line of scrimmage is best. I say leave him for the 3-4 teams in the 8 to 13 pick range. Orakpo is the best put together physically and at 260-ish lbs is big enough to play defensive end in a 4-3. He has some durability flags but overall has the athleticism, intangibles, and college resume to come off the board between picks 5 and 10. If Cincy thinks his pass rush skills translate to the pro level it’s a tough call where he fits in. Transitioning Orakpo to OLB, although risky, looks like the natural fit as they already have a lot of money tied up in light-weight DE’s Robert Geathers and Antwan Odom. The other option might be to move Geathers to OLB, a role he filled somewhat adequately on an emergency basis two years ago. Regardless, it’s a mute point if Orakpo doesn’t last past Cleveland.
That brings us to interior defensive line. With the young duo of Donata Peko and Pat Sims, for once it looks like the Bengals might be half-way towards putting a defensive line on the field that doesn’t resemble swiss-cheese. It’s a good start, but if they want to outlast the Steelers over the course of a season and have any kind of shot in they playoffs they have to build a solid stable of big bodies to rotate through the middle of their line. Enter Boston College DT B.J. Raji. He is big and strong and possesses some ability to create havoc. Think of Raji as the slightest of cuts below the type of prospect Haloti Ngata was a few years ago. I think he might be just what they need to upgrade the defensive line from being average with potential to being dangerous. Plug a 330 lb hammer in the middle, keep him fresh with Sims and big man Shirley, and give people hell for 60 minutes. Like everyone, he doesn’t come without question marks. Many wonder how he’ll handle his weight and point to his academic suspension his junior year. Despite the suspension he came back as a senior and had a standout year. His weight has been stable throughout the draft process, and people came away from the Senior Bowl, the combine, and his pro day with good impressions. Not to mention, in this projection I’m not sure the Bengals have any other options here besides Andre Smith, whose own question marks make Raji’s look minuscule. It is possible that if QB Mark Sanchez becomes a hot commodity around the sixth pick, they might have the opportunity to trade back, but unless the deal is sweet I say seize the opportunity to potentially fix what has been broken for years.
The Pick: B.J. Raji, DT Boston College
Just about one month out and the draft landscape is filling in significantly. Pro days are almost over and the combine and free-agency have made imprints on rankings and mock drafts everywhere. At first glance, the 2009 draft class appears sub-par compared to previous years. In general, the elite prospects aren’t quite as strong. I would compare the top ten players in this class to prospects in the five to fifteen range of most other drafts. At quarterback, typically the heart of a given draft class, there are more concerns with the best players in this year’s crop than usual and the position has almost no depth behind the top three prospects. Yet, when you dig deeper the 2009 class appears to be flying under the radar. While it is weak as far as quarterbacks, top-end corners, guards, and ILB’s the overall depth is pretty solid if not above average. Tight end, center, wide receiver, and running back all seem to be especially strong.
Not only does this tight end class boast a guy at the top with better blocking skills than anyone has seen from a college tight end in years in Brandon Pettigrew, but the number of athletic pass-catching types behind him is ridiculous. Shawn Nelson (Southern Miss), Jared Cook (South Carolina), James Casey (Rice), Travis Beckum (Wisconsin), Chase Coffman (Missouri), Cornelius Ingram (Florida); the list goes on and on and that’s leaving out players with day 2 talent. Last year there weren’t any WR’s in the first round. This year not only could there be five or six including two in the top 10, but the later rounds are littered with solid players as well. Kenny Britt (Rutgers) and Brian Robiskie (Ohio St.) probably will go in round 2. Brandon Tate (North Carolina), Juaquin Iglesias (Oklahoma), and Mohamed Massaquoi (Georgia) have round 3 potential, while Derrick Williams (Penn St.), Demetrius Byrd (Oregon), and Mike Thomas (Arizona) could last to round 4. Looking to take a flyer? How about 6’6” Ramses Barden from Cal-Poly in round 6 or 7? Who knows where Pat White (West Virginia) fits in and I’m just hitting the highlights here.
Running back is interesting because the depth is just as strong, but league-wide it is recognized as the easiest position to transition players from college to the pro’s. Teams realize they can find a starting running back on day 2 and it seems to have really influenced the draft stock of the top-end players. Chris Wells is easily in the top ten talent-wise in this draft class. His name has started to heat up lately, but until now he has hovered in the 20 to 31 range in mock drafts. Wells, Knowshon Moreno, and Connecticut’s Donald Brown should all go in the first round, but there are a lot of solid players to be had from there. Looking for a big back in the second round? Think Shonn Green (Iowa) or Glenn Coffee (Alabama). Need someone smaller with some quickness? Go with LeSean McCoy (Pittsburgh) or Jeremiah Johnson (Oregon). Day 2 is covered as well. Teams can look to Andre Brown (NC State) and Rashad Jennings (Liberty) for power or Cedric Peerman (Virginia) and Kory Sheets (Purdue) for speed. Sprinkle in Javon Ringer (Michigan State), Mike Goodson (Texas A&M), James Davis (Clemson), P.J. Hill (Wisconsin), and Ian Johnson (Boise St.) and there are options scattered all the way through the seventh round. I’m not saying all these guys are going to be productive pro players, but history has proven any one of them could be the next Terrell Davis.
The defensive side of the ball isn’t quite as staggering, but there are still a lot of intriguing players available. There are almost no top-tier defensive backs, but there could be some decent finds after the first round (more on that later during Bengals talk). The USC boys at OLB will go in the 15 to 25 range while DE/OLB hybrids Connor Barwin (Go Cats!) and Larry English (Northern Illinois) probably will land somewhere in the bottom of the first round. From there, there is a lot of value if the right player gets drafted into the right system. In the second round, Utah’s blue-collar but undersized Paul Kruger and an OLB coming out of Virginia’s 3-4 system, Clint Sintim, will look to find homes. On day 2, Tyrone McKenzie is a player trying to prove his outstanding production at mid-major school South Florida will translate to the NFL, Marcus Freeman could wind up a solid stand-in on the weak side for somebody, Cody Brown (Connecticut) is a 243 lb DE who needs to transition to linebacker, and amazingly Kaluka Maiava will look to be the fourth USC linebacker selected. Having posted the fastest DE 40 time at the combine, Richmond’s Lawerence Sidbury might be the sleeper of the bunch. An unpolished poor man’s Brian Orakpo, he has also crept into second round discussions. Michael Johnson (Georgia Tech) is a wild card with first round physical abilities and third round intangibles who probably winds up coming off the board at the end of the first. DE’s David Veikune (Hawaii) and Kyle Moore (USC) are additional mid-round prospects to watch out for. Inside, Peria Jerry is a 4-3 DT that won’t make it out of the first round. Evander Hood (Missouri) and Ron Brace (Boston College) both hope to make the second round, while Sen’Derrick Marks (Auburn) and Fili Moala (USC) represent solid day 2 talent. Teams looking for a 3-4 defensive end should consider the Youtube phenom with DE and DT experience from San Jose St., Jarron Gilbert.
All in all, the 2009 class does not have as much blue-chip talent as normal, but its extensive depth should have clubs finding starters much deeper into the draft. It will be interesting to see how things unfold.
Mockin’ It Up:
1. Detroit:
While free agency and the combine have brought the draft picture into focus quite a bit, there is still some ambiguity as to how the Lions will shape the start of round one with their first pick. The whole world is still mocking Mathew Stafford as the top pick while Detroit coaches and front office members continue to take the obligatory hard-line stance they haven’t made up their minds yet. Still the favorite, draft pundits contend Stafford has all the tools, and needing a long-term answer at QB Detroit won’t be able to pass him up. I agree, but keep thinking back to my impressions while watching Stafford’s Georgia Bulldogs face off against Michigan State in the Capital One Bowl. He made some good throws, but overall it just looked like he was a long way from being ready for the NFL. Any time the Spartan defense was able to apply even the slightest amount of pressure the result was a broken play. Bad throw one play. Bad decision the next. If his teammates didn’t give him time or get wide open, Stafford showed very little ability to make things happen on his own. His supporters will say it’s perfectly okay for him to sit his first year, but I’m thinking he needs two or three. We’re talking Aaron Rodgers territory. That kind of timeline just doesn’t jive with what is expected from a number one overall pick. Maybe it was just one game and the guy was rusty, but because not many people are predicting anyone besides Stafford number one, we’ll pretend Lions’ scouts take my side and leave grooming the Georgia QB as someone else’s problem.
That leaves Aaron Curry and Jason Smith. Curry is considered the best player in the draft right now, but whether or not he’s the best prospect is arguable. High-ceiling vs. low floor debates aside, I’m not sure that selecting Curry number one overall is even economically feasible. First off, Detroit just pulled the trigger on a trade with Seattle for star linebacker Julian Peterson. Interestingly enough, the Seahawks most likely made the deal to alleviate the financial strain of having big contracts at all three linebacker slots between Peterson, franchised player Leroy Hill, and all-pro Lofa Tatupu. Acquiring Peterson gives the Lions a second well-paid linebacker along with the team’s top defensive player and former first round pick, Ernie Sims. Sims could be sent packing to pave the way for a Curry selection but I see that as a long shot at this point. Even if you don’t take into account other players on their roster, the minimum contract typically tied to the number one overall pick would vault Curry to the top of the league-wide linebacker salary food chain with some room to spare. I think Curry is almost guaranteed to be a solid player that will probably make a couple of pro-bowls, but it’s hard to commit number one draft pick salary cap resources to a linebacker unless you think the guy is the second coming of Lawrence Taylor. Unless Lions negotiators convince Curry to sign for a more sensible contract, I don’t think he’ll end up in Detroit. By process of elimination we’re down to Jason Smith. While not as talented as the past couple top OT’s, he’s a hard working kid with good character. If drafting Stafford first overall is like playing Russian roulette and drafting Curry is like paying for a Porsche and getting a Mustang, then drafting Jason Smith is the equivalent of placing an all-in bet with 2-1 odds of winning. It’s not the ideal situation when you’re talking about $30 million, but the Lions are just going to have to make the best of a bad situation by taking a calculated risk on the OT from Baylor.
The Pick: Jason Smith, OT Baylor
2. St. Louis
Continuing on with this Stafford-doesn’t-get-drafted-first exercise, the Rams are up next. Ironically, Aaron Curry might actually be just the kind of player St. Louis needs to nudge their chronically poor defense into the land of respectability. Unfortunately, they can’t wait to start rebuilding their O-line any longer. They’ve cut ties with Orlando pace and even stop-gap free agents like Khalif Barnes and Tre Thomas have been scooped up off the free-agent market. There are two tackles most people feel pretty comfortable slotting into the top five, so picking second it is impossible for the Rams to have their LT of the future snatched from underneath their nose like last year. Eugene Monroe might not have scored as well as Jason Smith on the bubbly personality portion of the combine, but then again I’m pretty sure it’s okay for an offensive lineman not to be Mr. Congeniality. He isn’t going to overpower people at the next level but is generally considered a more well-rounded blocker right now than Smith. The Rams finally get their heir apparent to anchor their left side, can leave Alex Barron at RT, and should plan on adding a guard later on. If they don’t love Monroe, don’t rule out Michael Crabtree here.
The Pick: Eugene Monroe, OT Virginia
3. Kansas City
New G.M. Scott Pioli hacked off a major chunk of the uncertainty surrounding the K.C. roster by bringing in Matt Cassell to helm the offense for the foreseeable future. I don’t feel as warm and fuzzy about Cassell as most, but Pioli certainly is in as good of a position as anyone to make that call. With the trade, their list of needs shrinks to OLB, OL, DE, and depth at CB. Certainly they could stand to upgrade in other spots and have to deal with disgruntled stars at TE and RB, but in general they need to develop a linebacking corps and/or D-line capable improving their abysmal 2008 sack total and finish rebuilding their offensive line. So far, the top two OT’s are gone and it’s way too early to start talking about the enigmatic Andre Smith and the inconsistent Michael Oher. The defensive end position of the 3-4 defense variety also shouldn’t factor into any top five discussions. That leaves OLB. Fortunately for the Chiefs there happens to be one, highly regarded by almost everyone, ripe for the picking. It seems ridiculous that drafting Curry number one overall could be considered almost financially unfathomable while drafting him third is a no-brainer, but that’s the nature of the beast. It is a delicate balance trying to fit the out of whack rookie salary structure into the fragile financial framework of a franchise. I might be over-weighting the problem of top pick salaries to some extent, but it is definitely an area that needs reform. Anyway, acquiring Mike Vrabel gives K.C. the flexibility to look elsewhere should one of the top OT’s be available, but I think Curry is a shoe-in.
The Pick: Aaron Curry, LB Wake Forest
4. Seattle
If Stafford actually doesn’t go number 1, it will be interesting to see if Seattle gives him a look with Matt Hasselbeck starting to show some wear and tear. In the end, Seattle probably sees themselves as not that far from contending and will go with a player they think can contribute now. The trendy pick for the Seahawks in the mock draft world these days is Boston College DT B.J. Raji. However, the recent trade sending DT Cory Redding from Detroit to Seattle combined with the previous free agency signing of DT Colin Cole shakes things up a bit. Monroe would make an awfully nice insurance policy for the aging Walter Jones, and will draw consideration if available. That brings us back to where most people started with Seattle: Michael Crabtree. The buzz on Crabtree has settled since he showed up at the combine measuring 6’1” with a fractured foot. A lot of people are dropping him in the 7 to 10 range. Personally, if that happens the team that eventually snags him should be doing back flips. Regardless of injury status he’s still the top offensive player in the draft. The Larry Fitzgerald comparisons that floated around early on are a little far-fetched, but you’re still talking about a hard-working kid with loads of talent that is going to make a lot of catches in the NFL. Think more along the lines of a bigger stronger version of Marvin Harrison.
The Pick: Michael Crabtree, WR Texas Tech
5. Cleveland
What’s on tap for the Brownies in their first draft under the direction of the ManGenius? Cleveland’s new Coach/GM combo, so far, have put together a solid off-season seemingly mimicking what Miami was able to accomplish last year. Step one: offload players that might resist drinking the cool-aid of a new regime. Not only did the Browns potentially avoid future headaches with the Kellen Winslow trade, but they managed to extract pretty decent value from Tampa obtaining a 2nd round pick and a 2010 5th rounder. Step two: take an active approach to free-agency. The keys here: don’t overestimate player value and don’t over commit resources. Endless teams (and analysts for that matter) fall into the trap that different means improvement. Year after year mid-level free agents sign for three or four million dollars to plug holes they just aren’t capable of filling. Sure sometimes players develop or excel in a new system, but nine times out of ten an average player on one team is still going to be an average player on a new team. At the same time, bringing in high-level players is often inefficient and limits roster depth. The 2008 Browns allocated huge chunks of salary and draft resources to make a big splash bringing in players like Shaun Rogers, Corey Williams, and Donte Stallworth. The season went south for various reasons, and the team is left trying to recover from the void of having added little to no young talent due to lack of draft picks. Go after the role players to minimize having to draft players based on position then pick the best players available to come in and compete with or develop behind the veterans. Mangini has started to make the team his hand-picking players, several from his old team, to bridge gaps at positions such as TE and MLB. Additionally they’ve added depth along their already solid offensive and defensive lines with DT C.J. Mosley and O-linemen John St. Clair and Floyd Womack. The biggest hiccup has been Mangini reportedly getting off on the wrong foot with Rogers, his all-pro NT. After all the moves Cleveland’s biggest priorities in the draft will be to look for DB help for their average secondary and find someone who can juice up the pass rush, preferably an outside linebacker. It isn’t likely they’ll go after a corner in round 1 barring a trade-down as neither Malcolm Jenkins nor Vontae Davis have done enough to warrant the price tag of top ten status. Cleveland could flirt with the idea of Raji or Crabtree, especially if they decide they have to get rid of Rogers or Braylon Edwards, but unless they feel they don’t have any other options I think they resist the temptation. Mangini appeared to whiff (time will tell) on picking the dynamic pass-rushing catalyst critical to his 3-4 defense in last year’s draft with Vernon Gholston. He could be a little gun shy searching for the same type of player in ’09, but the guy comes off a bit too arrogant for me to think last year has any effect on how he is thinking today. I think he’s fallen in love with one of the hybrid DE’s and won’t hesitate to pull the trigger.
The Pick: Brian Orakpo, DE/OLB Texas
6. Cincinnati
Closing in on one month out and the Bengals are sitting in an interesting spot. Most of the personnel question marks that swirled heading into the off-season have been answered and a few more have been raised.
Keeping Houshmandzadah probably would have made a lot of people feel better, but in the end I think they’re getting out at the right time. The guy had hamstring problems early in his career. They started to crop up again last year, and he wasn’t exactly the picture of durability before that. It is a blow losing their most consistent offensive player, but they’ve managed to sign on a capable replacement in former Jet Laveranues Coles. I’m curious to see how Coles fits into the offense. He hasn’t been as productive as Housmandzadah in recent years but has plenty of ability and a little bit of a different skill set than T.J. featuring more downfield potential. Time will tell. I think both receivers can still be productive. It will just be a mater of which 30+ year old veteran will be able to stay healthy. Stacy Andrews deciding to head east to block on the same line as his brother leaves another sizeable void in the offense. I see Andrews’ departure just as he started to blossom as disappointing, but probably inevitable. They tried for three years to reach a long-term agreement with him and were unsuccessful. They were going to have to overpay to keep him. Besides, bad knee injuries for offensive lineman are scary. I’m not sure why, but everyone in Philadelphia seems to be penciling Andrews in as their opening day Jon Runyan replacement. Hopefully he bounces back, but I have a hard time seeing it happen without at least a trip to the PUP.
It wasn’t all subtractions in free agency. As mentioned, the Coles signing provides a big boost for the receiving corps. Assuming Ocho Cinco bounces back and stays away from the edge of the cliffs of insanity he seems to have been tip-toeing along the last two years and Chris Henry stays out of prison, the Bengals have pretty solid number one, two, and three receivers. Throw in positive reports regarding strides taken by ’08 draft picks Jerome Simpson and Andre Caldwell and the unit looks miles ahead of where it was last year. The running back situation has been solidified with the decision to reward Cedric Benson with another contract after a strong finish to the season. Off the top of my head, I think they would have been hard pressed to come up with a better option for a starting RB going into 2009. Hopefully Benson continues his career turn around and remains a positive locker room contributor. Another player signed off the street that turned some heads in the second half of last season was safety Chris Crocker. Retaining Crocker was a positive step towards building on the defensive momentum generated in their last five games. Throw in a backup RB, a backup QB, and a franchise tag to keep their kicker and I’d say the Cincinnati front office held their own this off-season.
Marvin Lewis has indicated they would like to add one or two more free agents, but unless they part ways with a well-paid veteran like Ocho Cinco or Levi Jones I’m not sure they can spend more than $1 to $3 million. How does that frame up the draft picture? Draft discussion in Cincinnati has to start with the O-line. It’s anyone’s guess what the starting offensive line is going to look like and that kind of uncertainty doesn’t bode well for a line that struggled to run block and pass protect in 2008. Just about everyone not named Marvin Lewis has seemingly written off Jones. Whether or not they’re planning on parting ways (via trade or straight up release) with their once reliable LT, Lewis insists that, right now, Jones is the starter on the left side. Whitworth could be the replacement at LT, leaving a whole at LG. Anthony Collins showed signs he was up for the task but that leaves Scott Kooistra all by his lonesome vying for the RT spot and I don’t think anyone would be keen on that scenario. To make matters worse, it’s looking more and more like coaches plan to fill the center vacancy with either of the inexperienced youngsters Dan Santuci or Kyle Cook. In that case it makes since to leave a smart experienced guard like Whitworth right in place. It isn’t hard to see why OT has been the most common position slotted to the Bengals in mock drafts. Despite fears that the offense can’t be effective without adding a top ten talent on draft day, I don’t think it’s going to happen. Four of the five teams picking ahead of them have offensive line needs making it likely both J. Smith and Monroe won’t last. Oher has fallen to 15 to 25 status. A. Smith is exactly what they need (mauling LT with strong RT potential) but he’s still a gamble at 6 having thoroughly proven how unprepared he is to become a professional. I think they have to try to find an OT/G combo guy for the right price to add depth while drafting two to three linemen after the first round as insurance in case Jones doesn’t bounce back or Whitworth has to play tackle. If they pass on OT in round 1, they have some options later. OT’s Eben Britton (Arizona) and William Beaty (Connecticut) are solid second round talents, but will probably be gone by the end of the first round as teams tend to overdraft on tackles (especially at the end of the first round). Jamon Meredith (South Carolina) is an option, but the top guard who also has tackle experience, Adrew Levitre (Oregon State), might be a better fit. Oklahoma players Phil Loadholt and Duke Robinson should enter into the day 2 equation. Considering the lack of experience at center, I wouldn’t mind seeing the Bengals go that direction at the top of round two as at least one of the top trio of Alex Mack (California), Max Unger (Oregon), and Eric Wood (Louisville) should be available.
Across the rest of the offense it’s not time to look for a new quarterback yet. As mentioned above, the receiving corps looks solid right now. Crabtree would be interesting. It would be tough to pass up on the closest thing to a sure all-pro the 2009 class has to offer, but it would create a log jam at receiver when they could use help elsewhere. If they offload Ocho Cino, I might go as far as to say I’d welcome the pick. Otherwise I’m not sure they go receiver at any point in the 2009 draft. A young running back will probably be added at some point, but the Benson and Dede Dorsey signings along with the bottomless depth available at the position allow that pick to be put off until the second day. The only fullback on the roster is a converted tight end. One will probably be added, but hopefully coaches find a free agent they like rather than using a pick to bring somebody in.
On the other side of the ball, you have to wonder where Mike Zimmer is going squeeze about ten more sacks out of his defense. They need a guy that can be consistently disruptive causing sleepless nights for opposing offensive coordinators everywhere. Unfortunately, that type of player doesn’t grow on trees. As Pittsburgh has proven over and over again, the way to do it is draft depth into all positions and every once in a while catch lighting a bottle a la James Harrison.
While the starters are set at cornerback, the Bengals could use an upgrade in talent at the number 3 and 4 slots. Undersized corners Darius Butler (Connecticut) and Alphonso Smith (Wake Forest) have enough talent to slip into the bottom of round 1 but would make excellent value at the top of round 2. Once thought to be one of the top corners in the class based off in-game performances, Vanderbilt’s D.J. Moore has slipped due to poor showings at workouts during position drills. Moore along with Sean Smith (Utah), and Jarius Byrd (Oregon) would be intriguing picks if they manage to fall into the third round. For the balance of day two, some analysts have shown a lot of curiosity towards the athleticism of Ohio St.’s Donald Washington. Other names to watch out for are Coye Francies (San Jose St.) and Cary Harris (USC) in round 4, Victor Harris (Virginia tech) in round 5, Mike Mickens (Go Cats!) and Asher Allen (Georgia) in round 6, and Sherrod Martin (Troy) in the round 7/free agent range.
As long as Crocker continues to play at a high level, the Bengals should be set at safety. They’ve kicked around the idea of bringing in Roy Williams. It would be interesting, but they’d have to free up some cap room and I’m afraid which other player at the position it would squeeze off the roster.
While the linebacker positions are not a glaring need, it is an area that could be upgraded. I’m excited to see what Keith Rivers brings to the table in year two on the weak side. It never hurts to have depth, but rather than dipping into the draft they’d be better served making sure they bring back the already proven Brandon Johnson, a restricted free agent. Improbably, Dhani Jones is still locked in as the leader in the middle of the unit. He has played admirably for two years, but how long will it last and who’s the backup? Rey Maualuga doesn’t appear to be an option in the first round at this point. Scouts have had lots of time to pick apart his game tape and seem to be forgetting him stampeding with a ferocity that few human beings can match into holes to ruin the days of many running backs. They see Maualuga plunging into the wrong holes now and then and have started to wonder whether he has the speed and fluidity to hold up in coverage. Realistically, I don’t think he falls outside the top 18 as some predict, but he’s not going to factor in at 6. There isn’t a whole lot of depth at interior linebacker, so unless they like Jason Phillips (TCU) or Jasper Brinkley (South Carolina) in round 3 or 4, they should just make a guess at somebody they think can play special teams in the fourth or fifth round and hope for the best.
At strong side, Rashard Jeanty is a solid performer who plays hurt. As a restricted free agent, it would be nice to find someone with a little more punch and keep Jeanty around as the ideal backup. Curry will be gone so it comes down to whether they will once again try to convert an undersized defensive end into a playmaking, quarterback devouring outside linebacker. To me it stings to have to draft David Pollack again in the first round, but if they decide to give it a shot it boils down to the top three pass rushers: Orakpo, Aaron Maybin, and Everette Brown. There seems to be a select minority enamored enough with Brown to consider him top-5-worthy. He is tough to gage because physically he’s more of a 18 to 25 guy, but people see his work ethic and pass-rushing production playing in a BCS conference and shovel him to the top half of the round. He’s a little on the short side and most highlights I’ve seen show him simply running around the edge against slow college OT’s. I slot him as a 13 to 18 prospect and hope the Bengals avoid him. He feels a little too much like Renard Wilson (smallish FSU defensive end drafted by the Bengals to play linebacker for those of you not painfully familiar with the misery of Cinncianti fans in the 90’s). In the 250 lb range, Maybin is the lightest of the three but is considered the best pass rusher with an extremely quick first step. He would almost definitely have to play linebacker, but his skill set suggests keeping him close to the line of scrimmage is best. I say leave him for the 3-4 teams in the 8 to 13 pick range. Orakpo is the best put together physically and at 260-ish lbs is big enough to play defensive end in a 4-3. He has some durability flags but overall has the athleticism, intangibles, and college resume to come off the board between picks 5 and 10. If Cincy thinks his pass rush skills translate to the pro level it’s a tough call where he fits in. Transitioning Orakpo to OLB, although risky, looks like the natural fit as they already have a lot of money tied up in light-weight DE’s Robert Geathers and Antwan Odom. The other option might be to move Geathers to OLB, a role he filled somewhat adequately on an emergency basis two years ago. Regardless, it’s a mute point if Orakpo doesn’t last past Cleveland.
That brings us to interior defensive line. With the young duo of Donata Peko and Pat Sims, for once it looks like the Bengals might be half-way towards putting a defensive line on the field that doesn’t resemble swiss-cheese. It’s a good start, but if they want to outlast the Steelers over the course of a season and have any kind of shot in they playoffs they have to build a solid stable of big bodies to rotate through the middle of their line. Enter Boston College DT B.J. Raji. He is big and strong and possesses some ability to create havoc. Think of Raji as the slightest of cuts below the type of prospect Haloti Ngata was a few years ago. I think he might be just what they need to upgrade the defensive line from being average with potential to being dangerous. Plug a 330 lb hammer in the middle, keep him fresh with Sims and big man Shirley, and give people hell for 60 minutes. Like everyone, he doesn’t come without question marks. Many wonder how he’ll handle his weight and point to his academic suspension his junior year. Despite the suspension he came back as a senior and had a standout year. His weight has been stable throughout the draft process, and people came away from the Senior Bowl, the combine, and his pro day with good impressions. Not to mention, in this projection I’m not sure the Bengals have any other options here besides Andre Smith, whose own question marks make Raji’s look minuscule. It is possible that if QB Mark Sanchez becomes a hot commodity around the sixth pick, they might have the opportunity to trade back, but unless the deal is sweet I say seize the opportunity to potentially fix what has been broken for years.
The Pick: B.J. Raji, DT Boston College
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