Thursday, April 25, 2013

Happy Draft Day: 2013 Final Mock Draft


Here is my annual mock draft (in, once again, just under the wire).

1. Kansas City: Luke Joeckel, OT Texas A & M
Some say the Chiefs are entertaining Floyd or Jordan. I think they're just trying to bait Jacksonville into moving up one slot.

2. Jacksonville: Dion Jordan, OLB Oregon
New coach and former Seahawks defensive coordinator, Gus Bradley, will look for someone to build his defense around. Jordan, a 6'6" pass rusher capable of covering receivers in the slot meets that description.

3. Oakland: Star Lotulelei, DT Utah
SELL SELL SELL. That should be Oakland's motto. They gutted their roster. Now they need picks. Drafting a lineman and then waiting until the third round to pick again doesn't do them any good. If they can trade down twice and turn this pick into three to four picks on day two of the draft, they're in business. Unfortunately, I'm not sure the frenzy to trade up for the OT's starts until next pick...

4.     Philadelphia: Eric Fisher, OT Central Michigan (Miami trades up)
...and Philly capitalizes. Miami or San Diego pulls the trigger rather than waiting until Fisher is off the board and the price goes up.

5.     Detroit: Lane Johnson, OT Oklahoma
Detroit's LT retired. They breathed a sigh of relief when non-tackles went two and three. Now they have a new LT.

6.     Cleveland: Dee Milliner, CB Alabama
Floyd isn't a great fit for a 3-4 defense. Milliner is the next best available player and he just so happens to play one of the Browns’ need positions. Rumor has it, Atlanta wants to move up for Milliner. Another potential blockbuster Cleveland /Atlanta draft day trade? It could be interesting.

7.     Arizona: Barkevious Mingo, DE LSU
The OT's are gone so the Cardinals resign themselves to gambling on Mingo's athleticism. Floyd continues to fall based on scheme fit...

8.     Buffalo: Sharrif Floyd, DT Florida
... and Buffalo pounces. It's not a strong need, but Floyd is too good. They'll worry about figuring out how to get their hands on Ryan Nassib later.

9.     New York Jets: Tavon Austin, WR West Virginia
Emboldened by the extra draft pick from the Revis trade, the Jets reach for the darling of the 2013 draft class. The team with the least offensive firepower in the league now has a weapon. Never mind that he could walk through a middle school unnoticed. I like the player but think he is miscast as a team's primary target.

10.  Tennessee: Ezekiel Ansah, DE BYU
Everyone has Ansah in the top eight. I'm not sure anyone signs up for that much boom or bust risk that early. Still, the physical tools are undeniable. Tennessee can't resist.

11.  San Diego: Chance Warmack, G Alabama
The Chargers need a whole new offensive line.  Warmack is the surest thing in this draft class.  Who cares if he’s a guard and not a tackle.

12.  Miami: Geno Smith, QB West Virginia (Philadelphia trades down)
Not only does Chip Kelly get his quarterback, but the Eagles manage to trade down to acquire more picks while doing it.  It’s quite a play if they can pull it off.

13.  New York Jets: Tyler Eifert, TE Notre Dame
The team with the least offensive firepower in the league now has two weapons.

14.  Carolina: Sheldon Richardson, DT Missouri
This year’s wire to wire mock draft award for the player that gets mocked to the same team over and over again from January through April goes to Sheldon Richardson and the Carolina Panthers.

15.  New Orleans: D.J. Fluker, OT Alabama
The Saints’ need pieces for their new 3-4 defense, but they take the opportunity here to protect their bread and butter.

16.  St. Louis: Jonathan Cooper, G North Carolina (Dallas trades up)
It won’t matter who the Cowboys start at quarterback until they improve their interior O-line.  Cooper slides and the Boys slide up a few slots to get him.

17.  Pittsburgh: Jarvis Jones
The reviews are mixed on Jarvis Jones, but the Steelers are happy to stop his slide.

18.  Dal: Kenny Vaccaro, S Texas (St. Louis trades down)
The Rams snag more draft ammo and still fill a major need with good value.  Bravo, general manager Les Snead.

19.  New York Giants: Bjoern Werner, DE Florida State
The Giants shrug and take Werner without thinking much about it.  This feels a little like the Ryan Kerrigan pick from a couple years back.

20.  Chicago: Alec Ogletree, LB Georgia
The Bears part ways with their long time star at MLB, but find a plug and play replacement without much trouble.

21.  CINCINNATI:    Xavier Rhodes, CB Florida State (Atlanta trades up)
Maybe this seems like a cop-out, but I think it’s pretty realistic the Bengals don’t stay in this slot.  This is really where teams will start trying to trade back in to land the quarterbacks. In this case, Rhodes falls and Atlanta seizes the opportunity to move up and take him ahead of Minnesota, Indy, and Green Bay. The Bengals move down and hopefully snag an extra third rounder in a year where it pays to have extra third rounders. 

22.  St. Louis: DeAndre Hopkins, WR Clemson
The Rams have young WR speed.  Now they have a precise route runner with vacuum cleaners for hands.

23.  Minnesota: E.J Manuel, QB Florida State (I’m not sure who trades up but, look for three quarterbacks to go in round one)
The big, athletic QB is too enticing for somebody wanting to jump on the read option band wagon.
              
24.  Indianapolis: D.J. Hayden, CB Houston
Hayden should go much higher, but the medical risk is a big concern.

25.  Minnesota: Justin Hunter, WR Tennessee
A big receiver with speed should complement new receiver Greg Jennings nicely.

26.  Green Bay: Ryan Nassib, QB Syracuse (Buffalo trades up)
The Bills can’t resist any longer.  They move up and snag their man.

27.  Houston: Cordarrelle Patterson, WR Tennessee
There is talk of Patterson falling out of the first round, but the open-field explosion is too much to pass up at this point.  Most teams aren’t afraid to gamble at this point in the round.
              
28.  Denver: Arthur Brown, LB Kansas State
They crossed off needs in free-agency, but Denver is still a little lean on linebacker talent.

29.  New England: Datone Jones, DE UCLA
Belichick has to be jonesin’ for picks.  He’s a little light this year.  I’m not sure he has a partner to trade down here though.

30.  Atlanta: John Cyprien, S Florida International (CINCINNATI trades down)
The Bengals pull the trigger on the trade-down again this year.  Cyprien is a two-way safety with attitude.

31.  San Francisco: Jamar Taylor, CB Boise State
Armed with more picks than open roster spots, there’s no telling what the 49ers are going to do.  Their biggest need appears to be in the secondary.           

32.  Baltomore: Terron Armstead, OT Arkansas-Pine Bluff
The Ravens lock up small school talent to groom for the future.


Bengals Summary:
The Bengals could go a number of directions with this draft.  The depth of this class should allow them to draft in just about any position order they want.  Here are some names I like and don’t like:
Cornellius Carradine, DE Florida State:  I probably should have found a slot for Carradine in the first round.  Without the ACL injury, he’s a top 15 player. 
Arthur Brown, LB Kansas State: Brown would add some much needed speed and tackling ability to the back seven.  He’s another candidate in the trade-down scenario. 
Damontre Moore, DE Texas A & M: Moore has pass rushing talent.  I’m not sure if he’ll slide to round two or not, but he seems like the kind of guy the Bengals are always getting in the second round.
Sam Montgomery, DE LSU: Potential solid pick for the bottom of the second round.
Johnathan Franklin, RB UCLA:  The exact type of RB the Bengals need.  I am crossing my fingers already.  I’m not sure if he’ll last to the end of the second round.
Montee Ball, RB Wisconsin: The exact type of RB the Bengals don’t need.  I am crossing my fingers already that they stay away.
Matt Elam, S Florida: Another solid option at safety with some character flags
Ryan Swope, WR Texas A & M: The perfect candidate to supplement Andrew Hawkins in the slot.  Think of him as a better version of Jordan Shipley.  I’m not sure he’ll last until the third round. 
Chris Harper, WR Kansas State: More of a possession receiver.  I’m not sure he fits on the roster but he’d be good value on day three if he lasts that long.
That’s all for now.  Enjoy.  It should be a wild one.