Playoff madness! All of the prognosticators speculating spastically has driven me crazy enough to wake up from blog hibernation! Playoff season kicks off today, and despite complaints about the Seahawks, top to bottom, the field seems to be as level this year as any other year I can remember. Let’s break it down.
Public opinion has penciled in the Saints and Ravens to round two, but personally, I think one of the home dogs are going to pull off the upset. The banged up Saints limping into one of the top home-field-advantage stadiums in the league against a team that everyone has written off might not be as clear cut as everyone thinks. I think the first half will be tight. In the end, Sean Payton is too good to be out-dueled by an inferior team in a win-or-go-home game.
That brings us to the mighty Ravens and their super defense against the happy-to-be-here Chiefs. Give me a break. Honestly, Baltimore has been hailed as a contender all season long and I don’t get it. Their quarterback is erratic. Their offensive line has taken a step backward this year. Their receivers don’t scare anyone anymore. Their defense is a shadow of their reputation. Why do they get so much love? Yes, I know they went 12-4. The thing is - Baltimore’s strength is their physicality. It sounds like a recipe for winning football games, but when you break it down they don’t have enough talent on either side of the ball to be considered elite. Everyone touts that stingy Ravens defense, but they are really a one-trick pony. They stop the run and hope you can’t sustain a drive long enough to score points. Their pass rush is non-existent (27th in the league in sacks) and their secondary is ordinary (19th in the league in yards/game). Haloti Ngata is the only player on their team playing at an elite level. Jarrett Johnson is good. Ray Lewis is playing well for a 35 year old linebacker, but there’s nothing spectacular here. They hit harder than anyone else and teams that aren’t ready for that level of intensity spend three quarters trying to work their way into the game. Familiar teams don’t have as much trouble. Baltimore needed five turnovers, a missed chip-shot field goal, and an incompletion deep in the red zone on the last play of the game to beat the lowly Bengals, a divisional opponent, last week. Not having played K.C. yet this year gives Baltimore the edge right? Well, maybe. The Chiefs are a young, hungry team playing the underdog role at home coming off a week where they were embarrassed by division rival Oakland. They just might be fired up enough to neutralize Baltimore’s advantage. Even if I’m wrong and they manage to defeat the Chiefs, Pittsburgh and New England have both seen Baltimore this year. They’ll be ready. I’d be surprised if the Ravens could beat either, let alone both of them. Baltimore’s Super Bowl chances are zilch.
The other two games could be tantalizingly close. Sexy Rexy tries to rally his troops against Peyton Manning’s MASH unit. The Colts are down, but so is the Jets D. I think Indy will run the ball better than expected. Manning wins at home.
Finally, can the Fantastic Mr. Vick carry the Eagles past the Pack? This is a tough first round match-up for both teams. I think Green Bay is the best all-around team in the NFC. Winning three road games to reach the Super Bowl will be a tall order, but if they manage to squeak by this one, I’d say they’re the team to beat. Vick is scary in the opening round off a week of rest, but I don’t see Philly as a Super Bowl contender. Their defense is being held together with duct tape at this point. Their hopes died when they blew the Minnesota game and let a potential first round bye slip away. There’s no way they can maneuver that D through three playoff teams without somebody lighting them up.
So where does that leave us for Super Bowl predictions? I don’t see both New England and Pittsburgh losing next week, and no one in the conference has the juice to run through both of them. It’ll be Patriots or Steelers in the AFC. I see the NFC as a four- team race. The Saints are a long shot due to health issues on both sides of the ball. No one is giving Chicago a chance, but they have home field unless they see Atlanta in the Championship game. I’d call them the dark horse. The Packers and the Falcons are the two most well rounded. I like Green Bay a little more, but Atlanta’s home field advantage puts them neck and neck. I’m going to go with Green Bay to pull off the improbable road win trifecta to beat Philly, Atlanta, and Chicago and make it to the Super Bowl for a showdown with Tom Brady and Co. The Patriots are peaking at the right time: Patriots over Packers 23-17.
