Well, we made it through Super Bowl week. I don’t know about you all, but I’m not sure I could have hung on much longer. If I hear the words “Gronk” (stop calling him “Gronk”! You’re not his buddy. You’re not his teammate. If you were a fan of the team I’d still frown on it, but you’re not. You’re a radio host.. or a Sports Center anchor.. or a weather man.. or whatever. Come on.), “nerve regeneration”, or “that Giants defensive line” one more time I think my head is going to pop. Anyway, on to more important things. It’s time to frame up the year of the Cincinnati Bengals and peek forward to 2012.
Crash and Burn?
It’s easy to come off a big loss like the Bengals season ender last month and feel disappointed. I had a hard time not grinding my teeth as it played out. The two teams traded punches then Cincy took a huge blow to the body with that improbable interception for a TD at the end of the first half. They tried to fight through it, but the damage was done. The Bengals felt the immense playoff pressure in the second half and they cracked. It was miserable. Nonetheless, step back. Take solace. I argue the end of the year could not have played out any better.
When the Bengals first made the playoffs I was disappointed. I thought there would have been psychological value to beating Baltimore to earn a playoff berth. The momentous victory would have put the team on the map and laid the foundation for being able to step into the ring with the big boys next year as a contender. Instead, at 0-7 for the year against playoff teams, Cincy remained the Scrappy Doo of the league. To top it off they somehow still managed to back their way into the postseason. The way I figured it, making the playoffs was a burden more than anything. It meant losing draft position and being forced to play another game when a major injury to key players such as Andy Dalton, A.J. Green, Andrew Whitworth, Andre Smith, Carlos Dunlap, Geno Atkins, or Domata Peko would have been a major blow to their 2012 campaign (note: as a lifelong Bengals fan, I went into wild card weekend considering a Green blown out knee in week 18 to be a foregone conclusion). Mike Brown had a greater chance of winning the lottery without buying a ticket than the Bengals had of navigating their way through the playoffs this season. Without the benefit of a notch in their belt from a big win like week 17 vs. Baltimore, what was the point of getting in?
As it turns out, I was wrong. The Bengals may not have had a shot of doing damage in this year’s postseason, but as I watched the game unfold it became clear that the league’s third youngest roster benefited greatly from the game of playoff experience. Better yet, a game of road playoff experience is just what they needed. The environment was hostile. The pressure was massive. The Bengals faltered. They were beaten soundly by a team they had already proven they could compete against after having dominated for three quarters against the Texans earlier in the year. If this group of players is fortunate enough to make the playoffs again, maybe next time they don’t blink. Maybe next time they maintain composure for 60 minutes. Maybe next time, they’ll be ready.
As a bonus, despite my eternal pessimism the price tag of playing the extra game turned out to be pretty reasonable. Cincy suffered no major injuries and dropped only one slot of draft position (the icing on the cake was Denver upsetting Pittsburgh, dropping the Broncos down and moving the Bengals up). Now that the dust has settled, 2011 might not have had a fairy tale ending for Bengals fans, but it did close with one more step forward in a season of progress. Next up, the Cincinnati front office will look to keep the momentum going in the draft.
Mid Round 1 Muddy Waters
Before we break down the Bengals’ roster weaknesses and highlight which prospects they might try to snag with their first round draft picks, let’s get a feel for the 2012 draft landscape. This year’s draft class is officially locked in. The headlines have centered around quarterbacks Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III, but how is the rest of the field shaping up? At first glance, I think this year’s class looks relatively average, but it might turn out to be sneaky good. Quite a few well-known players elected to return to school taking away some star power (notably quarterbacks Matt Barkley of USC and Landry Jones of Oklahoma) and some depth (players like Notre Dame’s Monti Te’o, ILB and Georgia’s Jarvis Jones, OLB/DE) from the talent pool. What’s left is a solid top 10 or 12, a few clear-cut second tier players, and an all out scrum for positioning in the back half of the first round. That’s not to say there won’t be great players taken outside the top 15 (there always are), but the hierarchy is mushy at this point. Maybe it firms up and maybe it doesn’t, but right now I think you might see a lot of fluidity between picks 20 and 40 as teams slide around trying pick up what think is good value.
Position-wise, there is a stark contrast between the 2012 and 2011 crops. Defensive line has been the meat of the previous two drafts and offensive line talent has been watered down. This year, the first round will be offensive-line-heavy led by the first elite-level OT prospect since Jake Long, Matt Kalil (USC), while the defensive line crop lacks high-end talent. Last year the quarterback class was a jumble. It took Cam Newton until April to emerge as the favorite for the number one pick and even then he had plenty of detractors. Conversely, Luck’s name has been written in pen at the top of the first round for the last six months and people are already starting to pencil in RG3 at number 2. In 2011, hybrid DE/OLB Von Miller was the only round 1 linebacker selected. This year you’ll see two to four true linebackers and at least two hybrids. Running back was an after thought last year with Heisman trophy winner Mark Ingram more or less sneaking into the bottom of the first round, but this year Trent Richardson (Alabama) should return RB talent back to the top half of the first round and there could be two to three backs total taken on day 1. Overall, it’s safe to say the draft script has flipped significantly for 2012. How does this all shake out for the Bengals? Having secured Oakland’s first round pick in the Carson Palmer trade, Cincinnati is sitting with the 17 and 21 overall picks. The talent plateau through the middle of the first round might make it seem like a bad year to have two mid-round one picks, but I think they have a pretty good chance to plug some holes. Time to frame up my wish list for the Bengals’ roster and outline which prospects might land in Cincinnati.
Still Room for Improvement
Top to bottom, the Bengals roster is in better shape than it has been in decades. However, this is a crucial offseason that could set the franchise up for something great or flush them back to mediocrity. With free-agency pending, it’s hard to get into too much player personnel detail, but here are my thoughts on where the team is at on both sides of the ball and what directions they might go in the first round of the draft.
Offense:
First, let’s cross off a few positions as options in round 1. Andy Dalton exceeded expectations this year. How good can he be? Some would argue the ceiling is low. I don’t think he is a “carry the team on his shoulders” kind of guy, but he’s good enough. Scratch quarterback off the list. Ditto on offensive tackle. Free agency might leave some voids in the backup tackle slots on the depth chart, but barring injury the Bengals are set with their starters. I’m good with Kyle Cook at center, and tight end won’t draw any first round consideration either. Now things get a little more serious…
RB
A lot of people are talking about a need for Cincinnati to upgrade at running back. In fact, multiple mock drafts have the Bengals opting for the big play potential of Lamar Miller (Miami) or David Wilson (Virginia Tech) with one of their two picks. Myself, I’d be okay if they went into next season with the same stable of players they have right now. If Benson doesn’t come back, take a shot with a third or fourth rounder, but I’d rather see them fill other needs in round 1.
WR
The Bengals hit it big with WR in round one in 2011, so it’s an unlikely direction this year right? Oh wait, Jordan Shipley is coming off a torn Achilles, Jerome Simpson is in legal trouble, and Andre Caldwell still just looks so-so. All of a sudden, picking a running mate for Green doesn’t look half bad, and 21 might be just about the right slot for Alshon Jeffrey (South Carolina), Kendall Wright (Baylor), or Michael Floyd (Notre Dame). I’m not ready to call WR a need yet, but keep an eye on how things play out. If there’s no value at other positions, it just might be the right thing to do.
G
For the second year running, I’d say guard tops out Cincy’s needs list. How many third and one plays did the Bengals fail to convert last year? The power run game was iffy, and they saw nothing but pressure up the middle on passing downs. Tell Nate Livings to Geaux back to Louisiana, start planning Bobbie Williams’ retirement party, and let’s start over. David DeCastro (Standford) would be outstanding. Unfortunately, he’s generating a little too much buzz right now and is getting projected in the 13 to 15 range. This is where the little things hurt like Matt Barkley staying in school. It bumps everyone else up one more slot. Luckily, Cordy Glenn (Georgia) might be a decent consolation prize. If Clint Boling develops, maybe they go with a tandem of Ga. guards heading into 2012.
The offense has rebounded from the collapse of the Palmer/Ocho era faster than most expected, but to keep things rolling in the right direction they need to look at interior offensive lineman in the early rounds and scour for RB’s and WR’s later on.
Defense:
D-Line
Much like other positions, free agency might chip away defensive line depth, but I don’t think defensive end is in play in round 1. Frostee Rucker and Jonathan Fanene are great rotational guys, but can they keep both? If Dunlap stays healthy and has another positive off season, they should be good to go. The emergence of Atkins was huge this year and probably pushes DT out of round one consideration. If I were Cincinnati, I’d try to bring Pat Sims back. He brings grit to the line and makes for about as good of Peko insurance as you could ask for.
LB
I have linebacker as another position towards the top of the needs list. It wouldn’t be the end of the world if they ended up with the same crew, but to take Cincinnati’s defensive unit to the next level an upgrade is needed. Will Manny Lawson be back? Can Rey Maualuga be more consistent (not to mention avoid suspension)? Boston College’s Luke Kuechly would be a great fit, but he should be gone before the Bengals get a shot at him. It might not be a bad idea for Bengals fans to start getting familiar with Vontaze Burfict (Arizona State). People are all over the map on the guy right now, but he’s an electric hitter with good range. Some say he’s a top 20 talent downgraded because of maturity and mental make-up issues (sounds like a Bengal to me). Some say he has matured. Some question whether he deserves first round consideration because they think he just doesn’t get “it” and doubt his speed. If he displays NFL athleticism at the combine, watch out. UNC’s Zach Brown is another guy to keep an eye on. He’d have to work his way up the draft board a little to be in the round 1 mix for Cincy, but supposedly he can fly.
CB
Cornerback is also a spot drawing Bengal-related mock draft attention. The Bengals were thin at the position even before Leon Hall went down last year. How will Hall come back from a torn Achilles (just the thought of having that injury and then trying to backpedal, plant and then drive forward to break up a pass makes my heel throb. Keep your fingers crossed)? I liked the way Nate Clements played down the stretch last year, but does he have another year left in him? Do they try to bring Adam Jones and/or Kelly Jennings back? They need at least one young corner on the roster from this draft, but I don’t know if the value will be right in the first round. Alfonzo Dennard (Nebraska) initially was mentioned in this area, but he’s a little undersized and showed some weaknesses at the Senior Bowl. I’d be surprised if he ends up in the first round. Janoris Jenkins is another name that has come up. Where I wouldn’t mind seeing them gamble on Burfict if they’re comfortable with his attitude, Jenkins scares me to death. He’s ultra talented, but with two drug arrests under his belt already his reliability is a major question mark. The real question is whether the Bengals will get a crack at the number-two-rated corner, Dre Kirkpatrick (Alabama). Initially people were projecting him much higher, but the pass rushers have started to move up the board and he has fallen off. Kirkpatrick is 6’2” with long arms to jam receivers and shed blockers in run support. Said to have only adequate speed, he isn’t necessarily a lockdown guy and sometimes has trouble with quick receivers. He kind of sounds like a bigger, flashier version of Leon Hall who interestingly enough slipped to the Bengals when they were picking eighteenth in ’07. Hopefully history repeats itself, but in the seventeenth slot instead this year.
S
Safety sort of runs parallel to linebacker in terms of needs for the Bengals. If they want the D to be great, they need to upgrade. The current starters have their moments but overall they’re pretty average to below average. Free-agency could send the talent level at the position from a state of caution yellow to code red. I’d think they’d look to add two safeties in free-agency and one with a pretty good chance to make the roster (rounds 1 through 4) in the draft. The only guy definitely in first round consideration is Alabama’s Mark Barron. Early projections have him going in the 15 to 18 range with the most common suitor being the Jets who happen to have just watched their defense lose steam down the stretch two years in a row after season ending injuries to safety Jim Leonhard. Unfortunately, New York happens to be picking at 16 right in front of Cincinnati. The other fly in the ointment is the hernia injury Barron is currently recovering from that will limit his workouts prior to draft day. On the bright side this might scare off safety needy teams like the Cowboys and the Jets and slide Barron safely into the 17 to 21 range. Maybe the injury even slides Barron down past the Bengals. It’s hard to say at this point, but I still have him on my wish list.
The Bengals D took advantage of some blossoming youth and a weak schedule to vault to a top ten ranking in 2011. Unfortunately, they still have a penchant for giving up big plays and looking overwhelmed against higher end offenses. To sure things up, they have to be a little more sure-handed at linebacker and safety and they need some young talent in the pipeline at corner.
If you’re keeping score, pre-free agency I have Cincy’s needs list as guard, corner, safety, and linebacker with the caveat they should be on the lookout for value at WR and RB. That said, there isn’t much separating CB, S, and LB. Good corners are hardest to find and take the longest to develop so I think CB takes precedence (especially if they get a shot at Kirkpatrick). A heady player with a lot of range to cut down on the long runs is what the back 7 really needs. I don’t care if it’s an OLB, MLB, or S, they need a tackling machine to anchor the unit. That’s all for now. The combine kicks off this week. If you’re a Bengals fan, keep an out for DeCastro (G), Kirkpatrick (CB), Glenn (G), and Burfict (MLB). I’ll try to check back in in March to break down how things are shaping up.
