Wednesday, April 25, 2012

2012 Final Mock!

Sooooo, it looks like my “initial” mock is going to turn into my final mock for 2012. It’s a shame. This draft is shaping up to be one of the more interesting year’s I can remember. The top two picks are about as locked in as you can get and after that just about everyone is trying to trade down. There is a little bit more value in the top ten but after about pick 6 the value dries out and you see huge 10 pick swings where each particular prospect might land. There are little pockets of value here and there but it gets spotty at times. I would have liked to break it down a little more, but I’m afraid I have to skip to the ending. Here’s how I see things shaping out.

1. 1.Indianapolis

This pick has been decided since Andrew Luck decided to return to Stanford for his junior season. He’s the best draft prospect since…okay, it has become cliché to say Elway. How about Peyton Manning? Although, if you don’t limit it to QB, and you’re talking prospects you’re most sure can turn into all-time greats, I can’t pass up Calvin Johnson in the best since discussion. Regardless…

The Pick: Andrew Luck, QB Stanford

2. 2.Washington

In an odd twist, scouts have randomly started taking pot shots at Robert Griffin III. It doesn’t really make sense. It’s not like Washington is going move away from him. RG3 might not have the polish that Luck has, but he could be the new prototype of NFL quarterbacks. He’s not quite the sure thing he’s being made out to be, but it’s hard to imagine this kid being unsuccessful.

The Pick: Robert Griffin III, QB Baylor

3. Minnesota

The twists and turns throughout the process this year have been unbelievable. Once upon a time I thought this was the true most straight forward pick in the draft. Next thing you know, Minnesota is trying to auction off the pick and there’s talk of Kalil dropping out of the top five. I don’t see how they get away from him. Their offensive line is a shell of what it was a couple of years ago. What good does drafting a corner or a wide out do if you can’t control the line of scrimmage? Some have criticized Kalil’s strength, but I don’t have much doubt he’ll develop.

The Pick: Matt Kalil, OT USC

4. Cleveland

Here we are again Cleveland. Can you believe that just a year ago, Colt McCoy was the scrappy QB everyone liked? Now Mike Holmgren is buttering everyone up to accept him again because after flubbing the RG3 trade-up scenario, McCoy is their best option. With Peyton Hillis gone and the jury still out on Greg Little, the most glaring needs are at the offensive skill positions. Justin Blackmon and Morris Claiborne are in the mix, but Trent Richardson has separated himself from the field. He is seen as the type of offensive cornerstone a team can build around. I think it’s tough using a position with such a short shelf life as a foundation. Why not trade back one or two slots and pick up an extra pick. Richardson looks like the one player people will trade up for, they’d still get Blackmon, and it would give them a total of three picks in the top forty to play with. I know, Richardson is “can’t miss”, but by the time Cleveland is able to fix their defense enough to contend, Richardson will be just about past his prime. The Browns in this Holmgren regime seem like they are always reacting instead of being proactive. They passed on an offensive beast in Julio Jones last year. They more than likely go vanilla here.

The Pick: Trent Richardson, RB Alabama

5. Tampa Bay

The Bucs focused on D last year and still have some work to do. I don’t think they can target anyone here besides Claiborne or Richardson. Rather than using up resources to trade up for Richardson, keep working on that D. Buy some Ronde Barber/Aqib Talib insurance. With Barber distracted looking for his AARP card in the mail and Talib looking over his shoulder for the long arm of the law (or the long arm of Goodell), Claiborne makes plenty of sense. Again, just because they need a RB, doesn’t mean they have to pull the trigger early. Claiborne isn’t electric like Patrick Peterson but he is more steady.

The Pick: Morris Claiborne, CB LSU

6. St. Louis

The downfall of the Rams picking Washington as a partner to trade down with is the massive cliff of talent drop-off after Claiborne comes off the board. It’s probably time to look for Steven Jackson’s heir, but it’s becoming clear Richardson isn’t making it past 3 or 4. That leaves Blackmon. They have a massive WR need, but this isn’t as much of a no brainer as you’d think. They have to decide: is he Crabtree or is he Green? I feel similar about him as I did Green last year. His hands aren’t quite as good, but overall Blackmon looks a tier below elite. He’s great on short to intermediate routes. His run after catch potential is huge and he can go deep but he’s not going to use speed to dominate (Note: Green definitely exceeded my expectations last year. We’ll see if he can keep it going).

The Pick: Justin Blackmon, WR Oklahoma State

7. Jacksonville

The top six players seem relatively solid, but this is where the “choose your own adventure” starts. It almost wouldn’t feel right if the Jaguars weren’t looking at defensive ends. Quinton Coples has the most physical talent but everyone picks apart his effort on tape. Melvin Ingram showed off his playmaking skills in college, but he’s a little undersized for a 4-3 DE. The Jaguars are desperately hoping to receive a phone call about their pick. The Vikings tried to hold an auction at 3 for teams to trade up for Tannehill but the bottom fell out of the market. Maybe 7 is more palatable for interested teams to trade up to? In the end, I think Miami gets jittery that someone will jump in front of them and they swap picks with The Jaguars.

The Pick: Ryan Tannehill, QB Texas A&M

8. Miami

One last note on Tannehill. This feels awfully early for him. Realistically, he’s not much worse of a prospect than Blaine Gabbert whom I had no problem with in this range last year. It just shows you how much better the top two QB’s are than anyone we’ve seen in recent memory.

Okay, so the Jaguars move back to this slot and are still looking for someone to take their pick. They might get a few nibbles, but I don’t think anyone pulls the trigger. Stuck at 8, the Jags will mull Ingram, but opt for what they think is the best player available at another position of need in Stephon Gilmore. He has been a fast riser. He has the size/speed combo GM’s crave in CB’s.

The Pick: Stephon Gilmore, CB South Carolina

9. Carolina

The Carolina Defense still has more than a few holes, but the place to start is defensive line. Dontari Poe vaulted his way up the draft board with his combine performance but I’m not sure he cracks the top ten. Quinton Coples is top ten talent with mid round attitude. Instead of gambling they can light a fire under his butt, they opt to solidify a greater need at DT. Fletcher Cox can provide the interior pass rush coaches crave. LB Luke Kuechly is the other guy to watch out for.

The Pick: Fletcher Cox, DT Mississippi State

10. Buffalo

Watch out for the stampede. There’s no more sitting by the lake and watching the league go by. It has actually been kind of nice seeing the Bills throw some elbows in free agency. They pulled the trigger on the big Mario Williams contract and all of a sudden their defensive line looks pretty formidable. If they don’t fall into the trap of getting too comfortable with their starters and neglecting depth they could make some noise up front this year. OT is the top need, but Riley Reiff’s stock has cooled and Buffalo has seemed reluctant in past years to take an OT high. How about some depth at LB to ensure they have plenty of missiles in the silo to cause havoc behind that big D-line?

The Pick: Luke Kuechly, LB Boston College

11. Kansas City

That sound you heard was the fist of K.C. GM Scott Pioli hitting the table as Kuechly came off the board. Past the ILB need, the chiefs could use some interior D-line help and additional reinforcements on the O-line. There isn’t a best player available that sticks out so it boils down to reach for Poe or reach for DeCastro. Despite Poe’s size, some still consider him best suited as a 4-3 DT because he plays like more of an interior gap rusher than a hole clogger. I’d like to see him fall to Seattle to see how he’d do in that role, but I don’t think K.C. can afford to pass him up. 342 lb men that can move are too hard to find. Scott Pioli has to draft him and hope Romeo Crennel can mold him.

The Pick: Dontari Poe, DT Memphis

12. Seattle

The Seahawks are hurting at linebacker and need to upgrade talent at defensive end. Kuechly is gone so Ingram and Coples become the favorites. I think things will start to go off the tracks here. Jerry Jones is sitting at 14 and thinks they can add a pass rusher opposite Demarcus Ware.

The Pick: Melvin Ingram, DE/OLB South Carolina

13. Arizona

The Cardinals would look at Ingram, but he’s gone. They could give Michael Floyd a look, but I think they pass in favor of trading down. This is where Mark Barron starts to become a hot commodity. I’m not sure who moves up here (San Diego?), but whoever it is, Mark Barron is their guy.

The Pick: Mark Barron, S Alabama

14. Dallas to Seattle

I’m just spit balling these trades of course, but this one worked out pretty nice for Seattle. They move down two slots, pick up an extra pick, and the players they were considering at 12 are still on the board. Quinton Coples looks like the obvious choice, but I think Pete Carroll gets cute and tries to load up on weapons for his young quarterback. I don’t think I’d touch Michael Floyd with a 10-foot pole with so much iffy behavior on his resume, but the lure of a #1 wideout mid way through the first round is too strong. They get the chance to actually sit down and talk with the kid. Maybe they’re comfortable with him.

The Pick: Michael Floyd, WR Notre Dame

15. Philadelphia

This is an interesting spot for the Eagles. All sorts of rumors are swirling. They are in love with Ryan Tannehill. They will make a move for a LT in the wake of the Jason Peters injury. Asante Samuel is on the trading block. Who knows what’s true. I think they’re more likely to draft D-line or try to move down. Unfortunately, the value of the 15th slot is diminished with Gilmore and Barron off the board, and Coples doesn’t seem like the kind of guy anyone is going to go after. That said, he has immense talent and Philadelphia has never been shy about chasing DE talent.

The Pick: Quinton Coples, DE North Carolina

16. New York

The Jets trade up to take Ryan Tannehill?? Okay, not really but it has reached the point where you just expect that sort of thing from them. It’s almost like they get sucked further and further down the rabbit hole with every move they make. If they’re smart, they’ll ground themselves with a road-grading beast for their interior o-line. Mark Sanchez has “regressed” because their line has been worse each year he’s been in the league.

The Pick: David Decastro, G Stanford

17. Cincinnati

Alright Bengals fans. Now the fun starts. You have to hand it to the Bengals’ front office. They had some roster vulnerabilities heading into free agency and they took care of business. They’ve essentially leveled everything out to where they have a similar needs list, but all positions on it are neck and neck. Nothing is head and shoulders above the rest, but here’s how I rank it out along with which players could fill each respective void:


A. WR: Who’s the new #2? I would feel a lot better about receiver if I knew Jordan Shipley was healthy. If they draft a young guy now, he’ll be ready when they really need him in a couple of years.

This is listed as the top need, but it doesn’t necessarily have to be addressed in the first round. The WR class is deep and they just have to get some young talent in the pipeline. Remember, they need to develop a number 2 WR so it doesn’t have to be a home run. Michael Floyd scares me. Kendall Wright would probably make a pretty good WR2. Stephen Hill will be there if they want a burner. Alshon Jeffrey would give them a possession guy in the second or third. Brian Quick is a small school guy with a great size and speed combo. Ryan Broyles was once a first round prospect but will be available in the third because of injury. They have options.

B. CB: It’s hard to get off the field on third down if you can’t cover. The Bengals’ D always had a different dimension when Jonathan Joseph was healthy. If they draft a young corner now, the defense has a shot at peeking right about the time the offense hits its prime. That said, some combo of Jason Allen, Nate Clements, Terrence Newman, and Adam Jones to go with a recovering Leon Hall should be adequate for now. Whoever they pick doesn’t necessarily have to be in the first round.

Stephon Gilmore is the top hope here. Unfortunately he has gone from a late round 1 sleeper to a top ten ball of flames in a couple of weeks. Assuming he’s gone, they should look elsewhere and consider Kirkpatrick if he’s there at 21. .if they think he can keep his head on straight.

C. D-Rock: Next on the list isn’t a position, it’s a type of player. I don’t’ care if it’s a MLB or a safety but the defense needs a heart. That’s not to say they don’t have heart. That’s not to say they don’t have leaders. But one of the top weaknesses of the entire team is the tendency to give up 20+ yard runs. They need a consistent tackler that is always in the right place at the right time to keep things steady and in rhythm. That’s what you were supposed to be when they drafted you ninth overall Keith Rivers. Thanks buddy.

Kuechly and Barron are the top candidates in that role but they’ll have to move up to get either one. The only other guy I think fits that bill is Dont’a Hightower from Alabama. Everyone is projecting him to Pittsburgh at 24 so they might be able to get him at 21.

D. G: I have this listed as the fourth highest need, but I’m kind hoping for Decastro at 17 to be honest. I think the two free agent signings are more an indictment on the future of Clint Boling than they are an indication of whether or not they’ll take a guard in round 1. Who knows if one or both of those guys will pan out. If they can draft a starting caliber player and let everyone else fight it out for the starting spot on the other side, they’ll be in pretty good shape.

I think Decastro would really give them a lot of flexibility. They haven’t had a guard that can pull since Eric Steinbach left. As much as I didn’t like the guy, they have really missed that dimension from their offense. Cordy Glenn could be an option at 21. He’s more of a mauler than someone that slides down the line of scrimmage but he has G/OT flexibility. If the opt elsewhere in the first, there is depth they can chase later on.

So where do they go here? My wish list is Gilmore, Barron, Decastro in that order. All three are gone here. Next you start looking at whether anyone of value fell into their laps like Coples, Poe, or (it pains me to say it) Floyd. Again, in this mock the answer is no, no, and no. The two guys that sort of fall in that category are Reiff and Michael Brockers (DT, LSU). OT doesn’t seem to make sense. I wouldn’t be totally upset with Brockers. He has a high ceiling. If they don’t like him, I say go with the D-Rock! Hightower is a 265 lb guy that can move. He just seems like a Marvin Lewis pick.

The Pick : Dont’a Hightower, MLB Alabama

Okay!..Running out of time. It’s time for turbo mode…

18. San Diego

I will hedge this pick as a possible landing spot for Arizona in a trade down scenario. However, both the Chargers and the Cardinals would be interested in an athletic DE/OLB type with a long frame like Syracuse’s Chandler Jones.

The Pick: Chandler Jones, DE Syracuse

19. Chicago

The Bears still have weaknesses on the O-Line and once again a pretty good OT has fallen right into their lap. Plug Reiff in on the right side and all of a sudden a positional need that has been a thorn in their side starts to look pretty promising.

The Pick: Riley Reiff, OT Iowa

20. Tennessee

Corner is a heavy need. I’m not sure they can look away from Kirkpatrick.

The Pick: Dre Kirkpatrick, CB Alabama

21. Cincinnati

The Bengals are back on the clock. They missed out on their corner, but it’s not the end of the world. Another opportunity presents itself. They toyed with Brockers at 17 and somehow he’s still available. I think this has trade down written all over it. Denver is aching for a DT.
The Pick: Michael Brockers, DT LSU

22. Cleveland

A lot of people are assuming Brandon Weeden is the guy here. I think they might roll the dice and hope they can get him in the second round. Instead, they take a crack at finally filling that RT need.

The Pick: Cordy Glenn, OT/G Georgia

23. Detroit

The Lions would have liked to have nabbed Glenn, but they just barely missed out. I think Jonathan Martin is a little underrated right now.

The Pick: Johnathan Martin, OT Stanford

24. Pittsburgh

With Hightower off the board, the run on offensive tackles continues.

The Pick: Bobby Massie, OT Mississippi

25. Denver

After the trade down, the Bengals are back up! Glenn is gone, but all of the WR’s are still on the board. The other guy in play here is Notre Dame safety Harrison Smith. He is a good all around player that also fits the D-Rock role. Whether they take him depends on how they feel about Taylor Mays. I’d rather see them take Smith, but they probably have trouble getting away from WR here. The height/speed combo of Stephen Hill is hard to resist.

The Pick: Stephen Hill, WR Georgia Tech

26. Houston

Houston will look at Kendall Wright, but won’t be able to resist the athleticism of Coby Fleener.

The Pick: Coby Fleener, TE Stanford

27. New England

The Patriots finally pull the trigger on the OLB they’ve avoided drafting for years.

The Pick: Shea McClellin, OLB Boise St.

28. Green Bay

The Pack just miss out on McClellin, but take the next guy at OLB on their list.

The Pick: Nick Perry, DE/OLB USC

29. Baltimore

The ravens lost multiple safeties in free agency and Ed Reed can’t have much more in the tank.

The Pick: Harrison Smith, S Notre Dame

30. San Francisco

The 49ers went heavy at WR in free agency. They decide to add one more.

The Pick: Kendall Wright, WR Baylor

31. New England

With most of the value dried out, look for the usual New England trade down. It will be interesting to see who moves back in to the first round here and what player they are targeting. My bet is on Weeden, G Kevin Zeitler, or center Peter Konz.

The Pick: Brandon Weeden, QB Oklahoma State

32. New York

The Giants luck into the exact player they need: a hard-nosed workhorse running back.

The Pick: Doug Martin, RB Boise St.

That’s all folks. Happy Draft Day!