Thursday, April 29, 2021

2021 NFL Draft: Day 2 Delight

It was an exciting round 1.  I'll react to that more later, but here's a look at the talent left on the board with day 2 looming. With only five offensive lineman off the board, it couldn't have worked out much better for everyone in Cincinnati crossing fingers for their team to add some blocking talent at pick 38.

With first round-projected talents like Moehrig, Elijah Moore, Owusu-Koramoah, and Ojulari still on the board, the Bengals will almost certainly get a shot at one of the top remaining OT's.  

Jenkins and Mayfield are my favorite fits with Eichenberg as a pretty solid consolation prize. Jenkins seems like too much to hope for, but it's in play at this point.  

Here are names of players in consideration on day 2.  Not all are in play for the Bengals specifically, but hopefully it at least provides a feel for what the landscape looks like heading into their third round pick.  I'd like them to double dip on the O-line on the chance that one of the G's falls to the top of round 3 or maybe snag a developmental OT to push the existing talent on the roster.  DT or edge might be more realistic though.       

OT:

Teven Jenkins, Oklahoma St. - Mauling RT, can play guard.  Wears goggles.. I don't know what it is.  There's something awesome about that.  

Jalen Mayfield, Michigan - 6'5" 319 lbs. RT,  Punishing run blocker that slides to the second level to smash defenders with ease.  Pass blocking needs development.  

Liam Eichenberg, Notre Dame - 6'6" nimble LT.  Needs to add a little bulk, but plays with surprising strength.  

Dillon Radunz, North Dakota St. -  Solid all around.  Needs to bulk up a little, but plays with a mean streak.  Might not be as day 1 ready as the three listed above.  

Walker Little, Stanford - Hasn't played in a while due to injury and COVID opt outs, but was considered a top prospect when he did. 

Sam Cosmi, Texas - Tall and lean. I'd prefer Cincy look elsewher, but he's regarded as a round 2 prospect.  Solid against big 12 rushers, but seems to sacrifice technique to compensate for weird angles caused by height and strength deficiencies.

Jackson Carman - Clemson - Huge 345 LT that doesn't quite play up to his size.  

IOL:

Creed Humphrey, Oklahoma - He's been on the fringe end round 1, early round 2 radar for two years running.  

Wyatt Davis, Ohio St. - Rock solid G that anchored OSU's always solid O-line.  

Landon Dickerson, Alabama - Highly regarded blocker with high character.  Injuries might be the only thing that dropped him out of the first round.  

LB: 

Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Notre Dame   - LB/S hybrid often projected to go in mid round 1

Baron Brown, Ohio State - Athletic weak side linebacker, effective in zone coverage

Cameron McGrone, Michigan - 

Jabril Cox, LSU - 

Nick Bolton, Missouri -

Edge:

Azeez Ojulari, Georgia - Long lean edge/OLB with a knack for coming screaming around the corner

Joseph Ossai, Texas - 

Carlos Basham Jr., Wake Forest 

WR:

Terrace Marshall, LSU - 6'3" one of the few tall outside WR prospects in this class. Does everything well.  Ran sub 4.4 at his pro day.  Doesn't always play with fire.  Has medical flags.

Dyami Brown, North Carolina - 6'1" Mostly used to threaten deep with just enough rout running prowess to keep DB's honest.  Strong WR2 prospect.

Dwayne Eskridge, Western Michigan - Short but can play outside. 4.3 speed.   If we're picking 5'9" WR, I'd take him over Elijah Moore in a heartbeat.    

Rondale Moore, Purdue - 5'7" with herculean strength.  Operates mostly in short range, but can wreak havoc.  

Amon-Ra St. Brown, USC - Smooth routs.  Reliable hands.  WR2 ceiling.  

Elijah Moore, Mississippi - 5'9"  Not my favorite, but plenty of people love him as the fourth best WR in this class. 

S:

 Trevon Moehrig, TCU - Ball hawking safety that flies all over the field.  Routinely mocked in the mid to late first round.  

Jevon Holland, S - Oregon - 

DT:

Levi Onwuzurike, Washington - 

Christian Barmore, Alabama - Started the year slow, but looked unblockable in the college football playoff.

Milton Williams, Louisianna Tech - Athletic undersized DT

RB:

Javonte Williams, North Carolina   - Considered by some to be RB1 in this class. 

CB: 

Assante Samuel Jr., Florida St. 

Ifeatu Melifonwu, Indianna

TE: 

Pat Freiermuth, Penn St.

2021 NFL Mock Draft

1. Jacksonville 

No suspense here. Lawrence isn’t going to dominate the league, but he’ll step in and make the Jaguars instantly relevant in the race for the AFC South title.

The pick: Trevor Lawrence, QB Clemson


2. New York Jets

Volatile playing style with a big personality in the biggest of markets. Either we’re going to see a beautiful fireworks show or an explosion that will leave a crater in the earth.

The pick: Zach Wilson, QB BYU


3.San Francisco 

Most of the information pros still have Mac Jones pegged as Kyle Shanahan’s guy, but I trust what I see.  I’m going Mac-less  in this mock draft out of protest. The 49ers compromise here and opt for the prospect with the sky as his limit rather than the guy with a pole barn ceiling.

The pick: Trey Lance, QB North Dakota State


4. Atlanta 

The chance to draft an ubertalented hometown kid and completely align the franchise trajectory with their new GM, new hot shot offensive coach, and a new QB all starting out together would be too much for me to pass up.  That said taking a 6’5 245 lbs. TE with the wingspan of a pterodactyl that runs a 4.44 40 and tortures defenders of all shapes and sizes they aren’t exactly settling.

The pick: Kyle Pitts, TE Florida


5. Cincinnati 

Team Chase and team Sewell have battled relentlessly amongst a divided Cincinnati fan base. It all boils down to finding the better strategy for supporting Joe Burrow. Elite receiver prospect plus an O-lineman at 38 or an elite OT prospect and a receiver later.  The debate falls apart for me with the evaluation of Sewell. 


Sewell is a great prospect with high-end athleticism.  I wouldn’t be shattered if they took him with the idea of molding him into a star player. But a generational  talent with Jonathan Ogden comparisons? Let’s calm down. Where’s the hulking strength people always reference?  He gets modest push run blocking and often gets walked back in the pocket trying to pass block. He usually stays in front of the guy that’s rushing but what happens when the defenders coming at him are bigger, stronger, and have pass rush moves? 


He’s been training full time for a year and his technique will develop. Some of the flaws from 2019 game footage should be moot, but SHOULD is a far cry from generational in my book. From what I see he blocks people. He doesn’t dominate them. His blocks aren’t sticky. He reminds me of Tristan Wirfs from last year, but not quite as light on his feet. That might actually be an argument FOR team Sewell given the rave reviews for Wirfs in his rookie campaign, but let’s give that one a little more time before I concede defeat. 


Is Chase as the alternative a slam dunk? Well, no. It’s almost similar to my Sewell complaints where the Julio Jones comps are a little rich. Chase isn’t quite as clean of a prospect as Jones, but the gap is a little narrower there for me than with Sewell next to the hallowed OT names of the past. Both players require some projection but I give Chase the edge.


At 38 that edge gets wider. Some would argue the opposite, but even if 6 or 7 O-lineman go in round 1, I’m still confident in the options they’ll have when they are back on the clock finally. With a little luck, everyone will bank on this year’s O-line depth and opt to snap up the defensive front seven talent first leaving an embarrassment of riches to choose from in round 2.  If it doesn’t work out in round 2, move on to round 3.. and/or 4 and/or 5 and/or 6 and/or 7.  Seriously. Team Sewell always goes back to the scar on Burrow’s knee and the need to protect him. Why not have both?  Take the elite receiving target at 5 then slam the O-line depth issue in the trash can by picking O-linemen with four or five of the next six picks? Two of them will hit and we’re ready to rock. People complain about having other needs..another DT, an edge, defense, defense, defense, RB, kicker. Forget defense!.. for now anyway. It’s not like they’re contending for the Super Bowl this year.  6’5”+ 310+ lbs. men grow on trees in this class. Go get them! Tevin Jenkins (probably won’t fall), Jalen Mayfield (if he falls he might get sniped in the early 30’s), Liam Eichenberg, Dillon Radunz, Walker Little, Brady Christensen, Josh Ball, Jaylon Moore, Tommy Doyle, Alaric Jackson, Robert Hainsey, Carson Green, Spencer Brown... these guys are going to be strewn out over all three days of the draft and that’s OT’s that I like leaving out pure guards, centers, and OT’s that I’m lower on than consensus that might have merit in their own right (Darrisaw, Cosmi, Leatherwood, Carman, Hudson and on and on). 


Start talking outside receiver prospects and it feels a lot more limited especially if you narrow it down to guys 6’ and up. Bateman should be gone. Dyami Brown could work but it feels a little rich at 38 and he’ll be gone before round 3. You’d have to make a trade to thread the needle and eahh.. it’s too hard to gamble on that. Terrace Marshall would leave me feeling a little deflated. He’s like poor man’s Chase without the edge to his game and a little more medical risk. Cade Johnson or Ihmir Smith-Marsette in round 3 or later feels like it would work. Dwayne Eskridge warrants a look if you want to dip into the 5’9” guys that can play outside. Dez Fitzpatrick or Frank Darby on day 3 maybe could work. There are other options of depth guys they could add but they would mostly involve leaving Auden Tate as the WR3 for the next year or two. I like the guy but I’m not sure that’s going to get them where they want to go. Overall, opting to fill the receiver need early just gives them more flexibility to fill out this draft class and progress forward.


If they settle on a pass catcher the next question becomes.. okay, why not just take Pitts? It’s a valid discussion to have.  Pitts becoming an elite player is a little cleaner projection than Chase but not enough to force their hand.  The tiebreaker for me is the already established connection between Burrow and Chase. It’s probably inconsequential. Pitts and Burrow likely would quickly establish their own connection, but the variable of dropping players into a new environment in a new system is an underrated factor for all personnel moves. It’s why projecting prospect performance is hard. It’s why relying on free agency additions can be dicey. With Burrow and Chase we’ve already seen it. They know how to work and grow together. They’ll hit the ground running and keep going until they get as far as they can possibly go together.


The pick: Ja’Marr Chase, WR LSU


6. Miami - TRADE to Carolina

Dolphins recoup a little capital to move back for their receiver.  Panthers pay a small price to guarantee one of the top two tackles.

The pick: Penei Sewell, OT Oregon


7. Detroit  - TRADE to Denver

Word is Fields will fall past this but hopefully Denver does the right thing and doesn’t worry about having acquired Teddy Bridgewater. 

The pick: Justin Fields, QB Ohio State


8. Carolina - TRADE to Miami

Some think the Dolphins are targeting Waddle if they can’t get Pitts or Chase. Something about DeVonta Smith feels like he fits with Brian Flores.

The pick: DeVonta Smith, WR Alabama


9. Denver - TRADE to Detroit 

The Lions snag an extra pick and take the first defender right before Dallas was about to do it.

The pick: Patrick Surtain II, Alabama 


10. Dallas 

O-line was their identity not too long ago. With Surtain gone the Cowboys seek to repair their aging line.

The pick: Rashawn Slater, OT Northwestern


11. New York Giants

An OT that can start at guard makes a lot of sense here, but hard-nosed defense will be their calling card. Joe Horn’s son is a tough press corner that can help them with that.

The pick: Jaycee Horn, CB South Carolina


12. Philadelphia 

Smith might compliment their current roster better, but Waddle will do. He is kind of a rich man’s version of Jalen Reagor. That should give them a lot of play calling versatility.

The pick: Jaylen Waddle, WR Alabama 


13. L.A. Chargers

I like the idea I heard of the Chargers trading up if Sewell slips a little, but they settle for a guy that played well at both guard and OT in college.

The pick: Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC


14. Minnesota

Rousseau isn’t getting hype this high but with the Vikings looking to add edge talent he’ll surely be in consideration. A few names push higher than expected every year.  Rousseau will be that guy in 2021.

The pick: Gregory Rousseau, DE Miami


15. New England

Everyone has quarterback on the brain, but I’ve already declared this part of the internet as a Mac free zone. Go hang out on day two Mac. Bellichick might still grab you there. The Patriots get more athletic in the middle of their defense here.

The pick: Micah Parsons, LB Penn St.


16. Arizona 

Outside corner is a sore need. Caleb Farley’s medicals lead the Cardinals to the next man on their list.

The pick: Greg Newsome, CB Northwestern 


17. Las Vegas

Another intriguing idea I heard leading up to the draft: Are the Raiders a trade up candidate if Justin Fields falls? They opt for a versatile hybrid defender here.

The pick: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB Notre Dame


18. Miami

Old school linebacker body, new school linebacker athleticism. I’m surprised Bellichick didn’t grab him, but If he doesn’t, Flores will.

The pick: Zaven Collins, LB Tulsa


19. Washington 

People have Darrisaw ranked higher than this. He’s a big barrel-chested tackle that looks a little top heavy and heavy footed  to me. Still Washington snags a reputable prospect to fill their biggest need.

The Pick: Christian Darrisaw, OT Virginia Tech


20. Chicago

The Bears struck out getting appreciable WR help in free agency. Bateman is a draft media darling. If he can rekindle what he showed in 2019 the Bears might have a gem.

The pick: Rashod Bateman, WR Minnesota


21. Indianapolis 

A hard-nosed tackle that will fit right in on Indy’s line that is looking to fill some holes.. And he and Rodrigo Blankenship can go shopping for goggles together.

The pick: Teven Jenkins, OT Oklahoma State


22. Tennessee 

Phillips returned to college football after considering walking away due to injuries. He lit up 2020 and might be the best pass rusher in the class. 

The pick: Jaelan Phillips, DE Miami 


23. New York Jets 

Paye’s versatility and athleticism will attract a team determined to turn their D-line into a strength. The Jets just can’t stop pouring resources into defensive line.

The pick: Kwity Paye, DE Michigan


24. Pittsburgh 

RB is all the rage to mock here, but instead they choose to replace their retired center.

The pick: Creed Humphrey, C Oklahoma


25. Jacksonville 

Ball hawking safety that flies all over the field. Jacksonville keeps adding solid players.

The pick: Trevon Moehrig, S 


26. Cleveland 

Ojulari has a lean frame that can add bulk. If he maintains his athleticism, watch out.

The pick: Azeez Ojulari, DE Georgia


27. Baltimore 

Not a lot of buzz for Mayfield, but Baltimore finds their RT replacement. Cross your fingers he falls to 38!

The pick: Jalen Mayfield, OT Michigan


28. New Orleans 

Toney isn’t getting enough buzz for the juice he can add to an offense. Sean Payton will know what to do with him.

The pick: Kadarious Toney, WR Florida


29. Green Bay

The packers are the first team willing to take a risk on a guy that probably would go top 15 if not for back issues. Tall, fast, and technically he’s been medically cleared for next year.

The pick: Caleb Farley, CB Virginia Tech


30. Buffalo

Buffalo needs more athleticism up front on defense. Oweh posted workout numbers that are off the charts.

The pick: Jason Oweh, DE Penn St.


31. Baltimore 

Off the radar edge rusher. He doesn’t look like much of a drop off in talent from the guys taken earlier.

The pick: Payton Turner, DE Houston 


32. Tampa Bay

Bringing all of their starters back Tampa Bay resumes the crusade to draft a decent round 1 corner.

The pick: Eric Stokes, CB Georgia 


There you have it. No DT’s, no RB’s, no G’s, and no Mac’s! Should be a fun night. Enjoy!

Tuesday, April 27, 2021

NFL Draft 2021: Wide Receiver World

Once the dust settles from the QB frenzy, the Bengals should be sitting pretty at five ready to take the first or second  non quarterback off the board. The Chase vs. Sewell debate is raging throughout the fan base as everyone tries to weigh the best draft strategy based on team needs. OT, WR, G? WR, OT, G? Throw a DT or DE in there?  Here's a list of WR prospects to keep an eye out for throughout the draft wherever Cincy decides to take a receiver. 

Applications Pending for Superstar Club

1. Ja'Marr Chase, LSU

Not the biggest or the fastest, but he's a 6'1" ball of muscle that chews up a CB's cushion like it's candy and then tortures the defender trying to cover him with his strength.  If he gets downfield in man coverage, forget about it.  Facing press coverage, he's a little slow getting off the line of scrimmage at times, but he does this thing where he locks arms with the DB and then rag dolls the defender and accelerates down the field in a flash to wreak havoc on the defense that just had it's flank dismantled. He was a 2020 opt out.  In general, players that take a year off scare me because they never seem to come back at quite the same level  as when they left.  Another way to look at it: as a 19 year old sophomore he was a force of nature that played on the same unit as Justin Jefferson. He looked a little raw but Chase was clearly the superior player to Jefferson, a guy who just lit up the league as a rookie.  Now, Chase has been training for a year.. sculpting, grinding, fine tuning.  He was strong.  What if he's stronger now?  He was fast.  What if he's faster now?  He was raw.  What if he's more polished?  He is a ferocious velociraptor that's been caged and kept in the dark for a year.  And now they are letting him out. 

2. DeVonta Smith, Alabama 

Smith is not fluid.  He is fluid in motion.  I love this type of receiver more than almost anything in sports. With out of this world body control, quick burst speed, and top-grade football intelligence he could get open in his sleep.  Once he gets the ball watch out.  He flows through defenses with ease and once he sees a small opening he has that elite extra gear to jet to the edge and turn up field.  He posted one of the greatest WR college football careers of all time and was the first WR to win the Heisman since 1991.  Why is he not considered a surefire top 10 pick?  Age is one concern. Some evaluators hang their hats on age of breakout season and a guy that stayed in school through his senior season that comes into draft day at 22 years old gives them pause.  But the real concern is his weight.  Note, I didn't say size.  At 6'1" with long lanky arms, Smith has all the length he needs, but his skinny frame is where he comes up short.  He has yet to allow himself to be weighed during draft season (or maybe he did finally, I lost track).  Reportedly, he claims he's at 170, but some speculate his playing weight is more like 160.  You do see him get rag dolled a few times in the rare instances when defenders get their hands on him.  It's a concern for sure, but I don't think it will keep him from having a successful career. His movement skills negate the risk.  I’m getting Marvin Harrison vibes.. you know, without the creepy scary off the field buzz.   

Supercharged  WR2 with WR1 Upside:

3. Jaylen Waddle, Alabama

Waddle Was right there with DeVonta Smith as 1a, 1b targets for Alabama this year before an ankle injury more or less ended his season.  Electric speed to go with smooth rout running, Waddle burning DB's on double moves was a thing of beauty. He isn’t a big guy, but oddly he doesn’t get dinged for his size as much as Smith.  Pair him with an intermediate target hog and it could be the start of a beautiful relationship.

End of Day 1 Watch List:

4. Kadarius Toney, Florida

Electric feet. Smaller WR that carries a surprising amount of pop.  Sometimes sacrifices a little too much play speed to set up his cuts. It feels like draft analysts are selling him a little short. They think he’s undisciplined and freelances too much. They question why he didn’t produce significantly until his senior season. Fine.  If you want a polished technician look elsewhere, but last time I checked players that are dynamic with the ball in their hands were still a hot commodity.

5. Rashod Bateman, Minnesota 

Draft media darling.  He's everybody's favorite to go in the mid to late first round and take the league by storm.  I'm not quite sure what I'm looking at with Bateman.  The way he bursts off the line of scrimmage and flashes game breaking run after catch ability, he looks like he has WR1 potential.  Yet he just can't seem to execute like he's on that level.  I'm not sure if his QB is holding him back, his coaches, or if it's just him. It sounds like there’s some weird COVID, partial season, coaches decided to use him differently stuff going on here.  Most people say to throw out 2020 and focus on 2019 tape to see what he really can do. I think it's likely he'll be a WR2/3 that teases us now and then with higher end production.  In the right situation though, someone might be able to harness his potential into monster value. I’d be afraid to let him slip out of the first round.

6. Terrace Marshall Jr., LSU

B+ all around: Size, speed, quickness, rout running in short, deep, red zone areas. There  has been some talk he wasn’t all in on a weird 2020 season where LSU’s roster was decimated by the draft and COVID opt outs. It doesn’t scare me away but it Nudges him into day 2.  I don't know of any specific injuries in his past, but reportedly he has some serious medical red flags.  

Day 2 Darlings:

7. D'Wayne Eskridge, Western Michigan       

This feels like the year of the 5'9" jitterbugs.  Blistering speed.  Return weapon that can threaten the field as a short and deep receiver.  Eskridge separates himself a little from the other mighty mites in this class with his ability to make plays lining up inside and outside and he can go up and get a ball if he has to. Okay hands, but limited catch radius. 

8. Rondale Moore, Purdue

Probably too small to be a number 1.  Operates mostly in the short to intermediate range. He hasn’t really been given the opportunity to do otherwise but at 5’7” it’s probably justified. The fact that he has a limited skill set, everyone knows it and he’s still a legit day 1/ day 2 prospect as an offensive weapon speaks to what kind of athlete he is.  He is a fast little ball of power. Just run him back and forth across the field laterally within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage and he can wreak havoc. Injury risk with streaky hands. Probably slips into round 2.

9. Dyami Brown, North Carolina

Not elite, but enough speed and rout running prowess to keep defenses honest as the second or third option in an offense. 

Day 3 Hype with Day 2 Talent:

10. Cade Johnson, South Dakota St.

Smooth off the line of scrimmage.  Gets off press coverage when he has to.  Capable of threatening deep even when given a cushion. Good hands.  We'll see how he handles the jump in competition, but he looked good at Senior Bowl practices from what I saw.

11. Ihmir Smith-Marsette, Iowa 

Kind of gets lost in Iowa's smorgasboard offense.  Not electric with the ball in his hands, but he’s solid enough and has return skills. He gets open and should be a reliable slot receiver in the league with some outside versatility.

WR Depth with WR2 Upside:

12. Amari Rodgers, Clemson  

Another 5’9” guy but  he plays bigger than he measures. Not a burner, but has enough speed to make plays downfield.  Crisp fluid routs but sometimes slows down a little.  Solid playmaker with the ball in his hands.  He’s not going to be a constant threat to break for a monster gain, but he usually makes one man miss and consistently breaks tackles. Think of him more as a guy that turns a two yard gain into a 12 yard gain regularly.

13. Amon-Ra St. Brown, USC      

Probably won't ever be a primary weapon but solid all around. Smooth in cuts and vacuum cleaner hands make him a reliable target in the short to intermediate range.  Not a deep threat.  

14. Tylan Wallace, Oklahoma State

Mid sized contested catch receiver.  Excels at out leaping defenders.  College fast.  Modest RAC ability.  

15. Dez Fitzpatrick, Louisville   

Fitzpatrick got a bit lost in Louisville's offensive scheme, but he looks like an NFL wide receiver to me.  He has size.  He can threaten downfield when he needs to.  He can challenge for contested catches.  He can get open on short to intermediate routs.  He can makes plays after the catch.  Let people ignore him as an older prospect without a ton of production.   That was Louisville's fault.  Draft him on day three and reap the benefits.  With a little luck, you end up with a capable WR2 for next to nothing.  The Senior Bowl practice footage is the only thing keeping me from really going out on a limb and bumping him up. He looked like he was having a little trouble separating there.

16. Elijah Moore, Mississippi 

I have to put in a disclaimer here. I am about ten slots lower on Moore than most people.  He’s a speedy 5’9” receiver with good hands and production all over the field.  I just don’t think his college production is going to translate. He made a lot of big plays, but I didn’t get  the feeling he was doing the heavy lifting most of the time. When I saw him catch the ball I felt either the defense cracked and he was going to capitalize or he was going to get tackled. He doesn’t look like he plays as fast as his 40 time.   He oversells most of his cuts with this weird exaggerated head fake that is going to be a tell more than anything against better defenders.

Moore is in the back of this tier for me of WR3/4’s with WR2 upside and all of the guys ahead of him have one skill that sets them apart. Fitzpatrick it’s size and physicality. Wallace it’s contested catch ability. St. Brown it’s smooth polished rout running. Rodgers it’s toughness after the catch. With Moore, the Steve Smith comp is way rich. To be top 40 WR pick, I’m hoping for at least a little WR 1 upside and I don’t see it.

17. Frank Darby, Arizona St.

 Has some fire in his belly.  Muscular physical receiver. I would have guessed he was 2" taller and 25 lbs. heavier than he's listed. He fights for the ball and wins. His RPMS rev up there, but he doesn't seem to have an extra gear. Time will tell if his athleticism is enough to hit WR2 territory.

Day 3 Dudes with a Glimmer of Hope:

18. Marlon Williams, Central Florida

Totally bizarre watching Williams. At  6'0" 222 lbs. he looks like a linebacker lining up, but he moves like a receiver.  Good fluid routs.  Doesn't have blazing speed, but moves well enough to make a living at the next level. Adds value as an extra blocker lined up wide.  More than once I saw a play flow to the side where Williams was out in a rout.  The safety came flying in trying to rally to the ball and Williams steps in and stops him in his tracks.  This guy has special teams ace written all over him.    

19. Sage Surratt, Wake Forest

Looked like a lean smooth rout runner with speed in game footage, but pre-draft workouts have told a different story including a slow 40 time in the 4.6's. It was startling how he looked in Senior Bowl 1:1's-  Rigid, couldn't fight off press coverage.

20. Whop Philyor, Indiana

Return man that can be a WR4 in an offense.  Gets open, but needs space to create after the catch.

21. Cornell Powell, Clemson

Frame looks bigger than he is.. Listed at 6', I would have guessed 6'4" watching him.  Slow acceleration off the snap.  Sluggish rout running on short to intermediate routs.   Flashes long speed on deep routs when he can really open up the governor.  Excellent at contested catches.  He has mastered the slight push off: too subtle to draw a flag, but just enough to create space for the catch. 

22. Tamorrion Terry, Florida State

Twilight zone prospect.  I'm not sure whether he actually exists.  Tantalizing size and athleticism combination.  Flashed as a big play threat catching the ball short and deep.. Yet a website I trust ranks over 300 prospects and he isn't even listed.  Did something happen to where he's not eligible?  He's listed on other sites.  It's weird.  He showed enough in previous seasons that he warrants a pick in the late rounds.  He's not particularly disciplined or refined.  There's a huge range of outcomes for his career.  I would believe hearing he was out of the league within a year or that he leveraged his big play ability into a monster second contract as a top weapon of a team. 

23. Simi Fehoko, Stanford

Big frame with speed.  He uses his body well at times but needs to be a little more fluid on his routs.  A little rigid.  Doesn't have natural ball skills. Could develop. 

24. Seth Williams, Auburn

Big frame possession receivers feel like a dinosaur-aged commodity that have become more scarce each year but NFL rosters still need these types of guys. Williams isn't as tall as he looks, but 6'2" in this class feels giant.  He'll present a big target for somebody and he can move a little bit to go with it.  I expect he'll go day three or UDFA and stick on somebody's roster for a little while anyway.   


7th Round Flyers:

25. Dazz Newsome, North Carolina

Mid sized receiver that mostly lines up in the slot.  Operates mostly in short range.  He has the ability to elude tackles, but won't threaten the defense too much.

26. Chatarius Atwell, Louisville

Short, light and speedy.  He doesn't make a ton of plays in the short game despite his skill set. He can threaten downfield, but his size really limits his versatility as a target. 

27. Nico Collins, Michigan

Something wasn't right with that Michigan offense.  He might be better than he looks.  Has ability to cut and get open, but often lacks crispness in his routs. 

 28. Demetric Felton, UCLA 

Lined up mostly at RB.  Fluid with the ball and without.  Not enough power or elusiveness to be a consistent weapon. 

29. Jonathan Adams Jr., Arkansas St.

Confusing watch. Within small school competition, he looks physically dominant, but he doesn't blow anyone away with speed. Bullies his way into high pointing catches and struggles to make contested catches… within the course of a single game.  Some of it is his quarterback, but some of it isn't.  Plays with an edge that he doesn't always seem to actually have.  

30. Jaelon Darden, North Texas

Deep speed, not going to catch every ball.  Potent in the open field against lower competition. 

31. Marquez Stevenson, Houston

A lot of guys on this list measure small, but look bigger. Stevenson is the opposite.  I was sure he was 5'9" watching him, but he's actually closer to 6'.  He's another speed slot man return guy.  The market on these guys is going to be flooded.  It feels like there are 50 of them in this year's class alone.  

32. Anthony Schwartz, Auburn

A bit of a hybrid.  Not short and shifty but he posted a blazing sub 4.3 40 time.  Not big and powerful, but has some height.  Flashes some twitch and rout running prowess, but ultimately isn't consistent enough catching the ball or making plays. 


UDFA Targets

33. Austin Watkins, UAB

To be fair to Watkins, I didn't find much on him other than clips of him running free into a soft zone defenses.  Watkins has decent size, but seems to only have one speed (and not a particularly fast one). 

34. Trevon Grimes, Florida

Big body receiver.  Flashes movement scales every now and then, but not enough to make me curious. 

35. Dax Milne, BYU

Not too big, not too fast, not too elusive.  I'm not sure he sticks on a roster for very long. 

36. Josh Imatorbhebhe, Illinois

When you can't find much full game footage and have to resort to watching highlight reels and you're still left shrugging your shoulders, the guy probably isn't going to make it in the league.  Boxes out well with his big body, but just doesn't have enough athleticism. 

Saturday, April 10, 2021

2021 NFL Draft - Quarterback Craziness


The 2020 season was disappointing for Cincinnati but as a long time Bengals fan, I learned early on to shake it off and look forward to April! The 2021 NFL draft is right around the corner and it's time to get a feel for the landscape.   As always, the place to start is the quarterback position. With a strong class this year the market has been extra heated so far and the QB starved teams have been jockeying for position all winter and spring. The expectation is for teams to select QB's with the top three picks.  Four in the first four picks is possible and five in the top five is even in play.  Here’s how I view this year’s quarterback prospects and what people are saying about them.


Day 1 Starters:

  1. Trevor Lawerence, Clemson

Lawrence is the man in this class but maybe not for the reason you think. He has been considered a sure-thing-number-one-overall-franchise-savior since he crashed Alabama’s national championship parade as a true freshman. I’ve mulled it over and over and I’ve come to the conclusion that yes, he’s good, but we should probably hold off on the parade to Canton for now.


He’s 6’6” with a lean frame (but not too skinny) with toughness and no durability concerns. He’s not a folk hero when it comes to arm strength but he has a strong arm with no limitations. Lamar Jackson shouldn’t be concerned about any of his QB rushing records, but Lawerence has the athleticism to consistently gain yardage on designed runs or scrambles and to break one for a long score (see Ohio State in the 2019 Playoffs). He appears to be a high-end well-respected leader that I have no doubt will seize the reigns as the face of a franchise right away. 


So what’s the catch? It comes down to the two true gatekeeper traits to elite status for any quarterback: accuracy and decision making. 


Let’s be clear Lawrence is by no means majorly deficient in either category. While he doesn’t have pinpoint precision, he delivers the ball where it needs to go accurately enough to be successful.  His ability to read the field and react quickly is a little more murky. For one, the infrastructure at Clemson makes it hard to tell one way or the other. You can watch game film on him for 10 minutes and feel like every pass play was either a QB run or a throw to the first read. He flashes plays where he scans and reads the field but he also has plays where he locks up and just scrambles or makes a throw he shouldn’t. In between everything is within structure so what is actually going to happen when the training wheels are taken off?


Add up all of the traits and I’d be shocked if he’s not a top 15 quarterback in the league. That doesn’t sound impressive but you’d be surprised how few prospects can boast that claim.   Will he consistently be a top 5 QB? I say no. He’s just a little too streaky processing the field. I think he will be... good.  But just good. He might have the highest floor of anyone I can remember. That makes him worth the top pick but doesn’t necessarily mean he’s going to dominate the league.


2. Justin Fields, Ohio State

Fields is the clear cut QB2 to me and he’s closer to Lawerence than most are giving him credit. He’s faster and more accurate than Lawerence. The one question mark is his processing skills. I don’t think it’s a major flaw. It’s not like he makes a ton of bad throws due to not properly assessing risk, and it’s not like he never makes anticipatory throws. He just holds on to the ball a little too long sometimes when the play breaks down and a WR breaks free. Let’s calm down the panic in a weird year where the preseason was submarined and lineups were constantly in flux. It’s not enough to make me shy away, but it would keep me from taking him ahead of a more sure thing.  Unfortunately, people seem to be shying away. Some have reported that unnamed  team sources have divulged they see Fields as a day thee prospect. Really? What did the scout that told you that look like? A giant nose, a bushy mustache, with big black-rimmed glasses and his name was Phil Shmellichick? The Jets, the 49ers, the Falcons, the Lions, the Panthers, and the Broncos would all be crazy to pass on Fields and that’s only looking at teams in the top 10.


Day 1 Starter with Risk:


3. Zach Wilson, BYU

Taking in the 2020 BYU offense was fun. Intoxicating even. So much so, I think people are getting a little too hyped up on Wilson slotting him in as the consensus option for the Jets at pick 2. A gutsy prospect with decent size and athleticism in the gunslinger mold, Wilson feels like he is what everyone wants Baker Mayfield to be.  His games seem like a constant barrage of Mahommesian arm angles and Frantic improvisation. Wilson plays with brash confidence but seems to be able to manage it to the point of avoiding crossing the line into harmful recklessness... at the college level against a schedule headlined by Coastal Carolina who BYU lost to behind a mostly sluggish offense. Can Wilson harness the chaos of his style into a successful NFL career? Is he The gritty football junky full of moxy that gets projected in T.V. broadcasts or something lesser that tends to crumble under professional pressure?   He’s had shoulder and hand surgeries in the last two years. Is there any long term risk? 

Assuming teams do their homework and are comfortable with his personality, he’s definitely a top prospect.  I just can’t hold him up there with Fields and Lawrence.


Developmental Starter:


4. Trey Lance, North Dakota St.

The thing I keep struggling with on Lance: if I watched him with no hype or prior knowledge, would I still rank him this high?  I’ve hemmed and hawed and the answer I’ve come up with is yes. Either way, consensus opinion, while sometimes dangerous, can occasionally pull you in the right direction.  My thing is, are teams really going to sign up for Lance in the top 5?  I have no problem with the philosophy that you take a guy that you like wherever you think that you can get him and then wait to start him until he’s ready, but most franchises don’t operate that way. If they take Lance early, he’s going to start in year one. That considered, 2021 is going to be a wild ride for whoever takes the plunge. People are lauding his potential as a passer, but I have a hard time seeing his talent throwing the ball as more than an unknown commodity. Yes, he has passing production in his game tape, but ask me to find examples of completions when there is a defender within five yards of the receiver and I’m going to take a while to get back to you. Can he figure where to throw the ball when there isn’t a giant plate glass window to throw through? If he does figure it out can he deliver the ball through whatever port window might exist? His athleticism is tantalizing but in a Cam Newton truck sort of way rather than a Lamar Jackson Ferrari way. I don’t see Lance as a markedly better prospect than Jordan Love last year and everyone lost their mind when Green Bay took him in the 20’s. Yes, those complaints were more about Aaron Rodgers than Love, but no one was pounding the table for Love in the top ten either. Is Love truly a lesser prospect or did Love just look worse because  he was evaluated leading Utah State playing teams like 2019 LSU and Lance’s toughest game was against James Madison. Much like Love last year, I fully support teams taking developmental QB’s anywhere on the draft board as long as they don’t succumb to external pressure as to what they do or don’t have to do in terms of developing him. Think outside the box. Tell everyone up front: Look he’s a valuable member to our franchise’s success. We’re going to start him in two to five games in year one. We’ll pick when those games occur and go from there.


Backup Fodder:


5. Mac Jones, Alabama

I tried and tried to find someone else for this five slot but I  couldn’t do it. Kyle Trask came close, but in the end Jones looks like he’s better at the most important skill in the sport: processing the field and deciding when and where to throw the ball. Is he really better or are his decisions just easier because he has has two top ten caliber receivers, other future first round porospect receivers, a bada$$ running back, multiple draftable O-lineman, and a high end OC scheming it all up?  I’m not sure, but I think it’s a little bit of both. He’s not the statue some have portrayed him as but he’s not going to blow anyone away with mobility or arm strength. Overall, he’s fine. The biggest question for me is accuracy. On the surface it doesn’t seem like a problem, but don’t forget he’s getting more time to process, running better designed plays, throwing to alien-arms Devonta Smith and rocket-booster-implanted-in-his-butt Jaylen Waddle. When i watch a little closer I see his targets twisting and adjusting to find the ball. It’s subtle because the studs he’s throwing to are so &@?! smooth.  He has ballpark accuracy and  i think it’s enough to limit him when throwing into  tighter windows at the next level. People have not only talked him up as a first round prospect but there’s buzz teams are targeting him in the top 5. I’m confused why Zach Wilson is getting buzz at 2 over Fields. If San Francisco traded up to three for Jones I would throw up and then start weeping for 49ers fans, (as a Bengals fan, a group of people I have no sympathy for). Jones is a backup level player.


6. Peyton Ramsey, Northwestern

It’s time to announce my Tyler Huntley/ Daniel Jones memorial award for the player that I’m way higher on than most people. Even knowing he went to Elder high school, I still like him. Ramsey started at Indiana where he Was beat out by someone more athletic. After an injury to his replacement in 2019, Ramsey was pressed back into service and performed admirably.  In 2020 he transferred to Northwestern. There were some ups and downs. I wouldn’t ignore it, but transferring to a new team in such a strange year with limited practice I’m willing to overlook a few warts when he’s pressing to try to make something happen while trailing.  His arm strength might limit him some, but he’s a gritty leader that knows where and when to throw the ball. He has a good feel for the pocket and can escape when he needs to. Some have compared Mac Jones to Tom Brady. Let’s calm down on that. Ramsey on the other hand.. just kidding I won’t go there.  Brady’s presence and drive might never be equaled. Ramsey is nowhere close on arm talent either. But the ability to read and diagnose is hard to deny.  Swap Ramsey onto Alabama and I find it hard to believe he doesn’t get the same hype Jones is getting.


7. Kyle Trask, Florida

Based on what I saw last year I came in thinking Trask might be a candidate to sneak into the first round discussion. I dug through the the 2020 footage and the upside just isn’t there. The floor is a college player trying to play in the pros that just can’t hack it.  He’s a bulkier kid. The arm strength is just so so. His accuracy is pretty decent, but he has lapses in his decision making. Some of it is similar to what I mentioned above with Ramsey where Trask is in a shootout trying to keep up with an Alabama offense that is  humming and he made some mistakes trying to force the issue. Then there are other times he just tries to stick with the play design like a screen or a slant when the defense has it figured out and he just doesn’t sense the danger. By all rights Trask should be above Ramsey, but for me I don’t see a path to Trask as much more than a capable backup that only starts in an emergency situation while with Ramsey there’s a sliver of hope that he blossoms into something more. That’s not the end of the world for Trask. There is value to having a reliable QB2.  It seems more and more teams are starting to see that and might consider adding guys like this as early as day 2.


8. Davis Mills, Stanford

Looks the part. Makes a lot of nice accurate throws. A few to his team. A few to the other team. And the rest of the time Stanford is trying to run the ball. Take him on day 3, stick him in a real offense, try to harness his decision making and maybe in a few years you have something.


Do Teams Still Carry Three QB’s?


9. Jamie Newman, Wake Forest

Opted out last year. Has a nice frame. Flashes some series where he makes some nice throws, but then he gets into a funk and sputters for a while. It might partly be Wake Forest, but it seemed like something was missing. His processing power seems a little off? I can’t quite put my finger in it. He might be worth a flyer to find out. 


10. K.J. Costello, Mississippi St

It’s jarring when you’re watching game cut ups of a guy and then he takes a monster shot to the head, the guy goes rigid on The field and the video just ends. Costello has had multiple head injuries that probably should give everyone pause (including himself). If he continues his career, he’s has prototypical size and showed some potential at Stanford.  In 2020 he transferred to Miss. St. to play for Mike Leach. He lit up LSU in game one then everyone started sitting on the short crossing routs. Costello short circuited and the Bulldog’s season went up in flames. He’s worth a look based on talent, but health concerns might cause me to look elsewhere.


Practice Squad Fodder


11. Ian Book, Notre Dame

At first glance Book is a guy moving around making things happen. Then you feel like you’ve watched the same play 40 times in a row. Drop back. Scramble. Scramble. Run or throw medium accuracy pass or throw it away. Either Notre Dame has a receiving corps that never gets open or Book can’t read the field. Scrappy guy though. Plays with heart.


12. Sam Ehlinger, Texas 

Speaking of scrappy guys that play with heart. Any hints of a Texas football revival has been willed by Ehlinger. Probably not enough tools to make any waves in the NFL, but might be able to hang around for a minute.


13. Brady White, Memphis

He didn’t do anything to wow me or drastically disappoint me. He deserves a shot at a roster spot somewhere.


St. Louis Battlehawks Future Stars


14. Kellen Mond, Texas A&M

15. Felipe Franks, Arkansas

16. Zac Thomas, Appalachian State


You Made a Nice Run at It but Time to Hang It Up Boys


17. Shane Buechele, SMU

18. Brady Davis, Illinois 

19. Zach Smith, Tulsa


As a Zach, at first I was excited looking at the QB prospects for this year. Yes!! Look at all these Zach’s! Then I watched Smith and thought ohhh nooooo. We need fewer Zach’s.