A black cloud of labor dispute looms over the NFL, but never fear, draft season will take place rain or shine. The Senior Bowl is complete, the Combine is gearing up, and pro days are right around the corner. It won’t be totally business as usual however as the escalating labor dispute between the owners and the players could significantly change draft dynamics and strategies. Once the current collective bargaining agreement expires on March 4, no player trades can be made. Perhaps the bigger impact will be the absence of free agency. Unable to shop around for free agents, coaches and GM’s won’t get their first opportunity to fill holes until the draft. At a glance you might think this will force teams to draft more for need than value, but it will likely have the opposite effect. Free agency might be late, it might be abbreviated, but it will happen eventually. With a less than clear picture of what 2011 rosters will look like, I think team decision makers are more likely to take the best players available and sort out the details later. Here’s a peek at the top ten landscape:
No Number 1?:
Ever since Andrew Luck took his name out of the ring, the 2011 draft class has been without an elite prospect. There is solid group of four or five players in the top tier, but the class lacks a no-brainer franchise quarterback or a position player that will immediately challenge for all-pro status. The top two candidates to go number 1 right now are Auburn DT Nick Fairley and Clemson DE Da’Quan Bowers. There was some over reaction to Fairley’s National Championship performance. Some analysts were throwing around names like Suh and Sapp for comparisons, but Fairley isn’t quite in that category. When those guys left school they were NFL players playing in college. Fairley is a great college player that will need to make the transition to the pros. I’d liken him closer to what I thought of Glenn Dorsey when he entered the league. That’s not to say Fairley’s career will turn out to be as ordinary as Dorsey’s has been, but I’d put them on the same starting plane. That being said, I give Fairley the nod right now. The Panthers are a lot worse off at DT than DE. I think you’d be hard pressed to come up with a team right now with less interior defensive line talent.
Next in Line in Denver?:
LSU CB Patrick Peterson will come into play here, but the Broncos will have trouble straying away from the defensive line. I’m not even going to pretend to know where the personnel pieces will land when new coach John Fox more than likely blows up the present scheme and switches Denver back to a 4-3, but based one this unit’s 2010 performance (31st in the league in rushing yards against) they need new players. The return of injured star sack-man Elvis Dumervil will help the pass rush, but a 250 lb DE probably won’t help out the rush defense.
Bowers is a high-end prospect talented enough to build around. Some people gripe about his technique, but when you watch him he plays with high intensity, has great instincts (reacts to the ball well, sniffs out the play without thinking too much about it), and has the athletic ability to excel versus the run and the pass at the next level. So what if he plays a little too upright at times - John Fox can fix that.
To QB or not to QB?:
Will Buffalo do any more than flirt with taking a quarterback here? Some people are touting Missouri QB Blaine Gabbert as a candidate for the Bills. In the end, I don’t think Gabbert will be able to hold off Cam Newton as the top QB taken. I’ll get more into that later. For right now, let’s say the Bills decide not to pull the trigger on either one. Marcell Dareus (DT, Alabama) is another name that has come up for his potential as a 3-4 DE, but I don’t think he’s top 5 talent. (Besides, why draft a 3-4 DE in the top 5? That’s what rounds 3 through 7 are for.) This pick should be the most talented player in the class: Patrick Peterson. He’s big, he’s fast, and he has amazing ball skills. I would lobby for him in the top two, but D-linemen are more important than DB’s for rebuilding teams (DE’s and DT’s in 4-3 systems, OLB’s and NT’s in 3-4 defenses).
Sitting Pretty:
Here we are again. After a one year hiatus, it’s back to the top of the draft for Bengaldom. Before we get into draft prospects, let’s delve into what thus far has been an eventful off-season.
Marvin’s New Lieutenant:
First, the good news: I like the Jay Gruden hire. The offense needs a breath of fresh air. Make no mistake, this is a gamble. In five years we’ll probably be cursing the guy’s name and lumping him together with David Shula. Yet, for right now I’m optimistic that this was the right move and maybe Marvin Lewis has finally found the right coaching combination with the fourth and fifth coordinators of his tenure.
Carson Conundrum:
Maybe I should have seen it coming, but I was more or less blindsided by Carson Palmer waving the white flag on being the team’s franchise quarterback. His character and attitude have been a pillar for the organization throughout his career. Take that away and all of a sudden I start to wonder about things behind the scenes.
What it all means is unclear. The Bengals can hope Palmer is bluffing and intrigued enough by the infusion of new offensive blood into the team to give it one more shot, or they can try to strike a deal. Strangely, there are enough desperate teams at the free agent saloon drowning their sorrows fretting over their quarterback woes that even a player coming off a 20 interception season that comes struttin’ through the door doesn’t look half bad. The key would be to make a trade that wouldn’t send the team into a five year tailspin. That would mean going in one of two directions. Acquire a stop-gap in the deal, and draft a QB. Think Jason Campbell or Alex Smith in trades. Better yet, how about West Coast lifers Matt Hasselbeck or Donovan McNabb in free agency to mentor Newton or Gabbert. If they pass on a QB early, players like Andy Dalton (TCU) or Colin Kaepernick (Nevada) are potential later round targets. Alternatively, why not just trade for their next quarterback? Kevin Kolb anyone? Yes, that trade is impossible. Or is it? How about a three team deal? Cincy sends Carson Palmer to the 49ers, the Bengals land Kolb, and the Eagles acquire two early second round draft picks. The Bengals wind up with a young quarterback who is ready to start and has been groomed in a West Coast system (similar to the one they’ll be running next year). The 49ers get a veteran QB that can buy rookie coach Jim Harbaugh 2 to 4 years to get organized. The Eagles, said to be looking for a first and a third in exchange for Kolb, end up with two high second rounders. The Palmer family gets to move back to California. Kevin Kolb gets his shot to start. Everybody wins right? Oh yeah, the most stubborn man alive has vowed not to trade Palmer. And the Eagles need to keep Kolb as insurance for their crash-test-dummy superstar starting quarterback. And Harbaugh is already trying to butter up the fan base for the shock of bringing Alex Smith back for another year. And oh yeah, unless the players union and the owners give up their game of labor dispute chicken prior to the draft, no trades can happen anyway. It’s unfortunate because it makes SO much sense, but it looks like we are stuck with trying to avoid a messy divorce from Carson Palmer as our greatest hope.
Draft Outlook:
If you look past the possibility that Palmer might walk out the door without a viable replacement in place, the Bengals are actually in pretty good shape. For simplicity, let’s just leave out that nightmarish scenario for now. By my count there are four high-end prospects in this draft, and the Bengals conveniently have fourth pick. If Buffalo takes a quarterback, they’ll even have two of the four to pick from. What position are they likely to target? I think they have flexibility there (unless they are forced to take a quarterback). Their top need is guard, but that is irrelevant in the first round unless they trade down about fifteen slots. Past that, the lack of free agency prior to the draft takes effect and you start to lose focus. They need a defensive playmaker, a more durable safety, depth at strong side linebacker, a corner if they lose Johnathan Joseph, a receiver if they lose Chad Johnson, a running back if they lose Cedric Benson, and an OT if Andre Smith can’t get healthy. It sounds like a lot, but there aren’t a lot of dire needs there. Like I said, I think the strategy has to be draft the best players available more than you ever have before and then go after what you’re missing in free agency when it eventually happens.
The Bengals don’t really need Fairley, but he would be an upgrade over Tank Johnson and would round out the DT rotation in a division where you have to be strong up front. He might not be the defensive stud they crave, but having him in the middle certainly wouldn’t hurt the chances of Carlos Dunlap or Michael Johnson developing into that guy.
Bowers on the other hand does have some star potential. At the least, he would be just another weapon they can plug in. The NY Giants have proven it over and over again: you can never have too many pass rushers.
Peterson is intriguing. I think he has the greatest difference-making potential of the three, and the Bengals are the first team in the draft order with good enough talent up front to take advantage of it. He would be a nice insurance policy if they can’t resign Joseph, but he is still a good fit regardless because of his versatility. I say move him to safety and he has a chance to redefine the position at a time when arguably the two best safeties of all time (Polamalu and Reed) are still active players. He has the ball skills to terrorize QB’s in center field. He has the speed to blanket slot men. They could blitz him from the edge. They could blitz him up the middle. If he’s there, I’d love to see them pull the trigger.
If Peterson isn’t available and they think they are set on the D-line, the other major candidate is Georgia WR A.J. Green. Mock draft after mock draft have penciled Green in to Cincinnati assuming Chad Johnson is out the door, and I can’t say that I’d disagree with that line of thinking. Green and Simpson as outside receivers with Shipley and Caldwell as slot men seems like a nice well-rounded receiving corps to build on.
The wild card of course is Newton. The guy is dialed in and gaining momentum fast. I don’t really like him as a player and I’m even starting to have second thoughts as to whether the Bengals should pass on him. I just hope Buffalo snatches him up and makes the decision easy.
Best of the Rest:
Prince Amukamara (CB, Nebraska) gets an honorable mention for the group of top prospects and is at the front of the next tier down.
Marcell Dareus (DT, Alabama) joins him as a mauler with the ability to go 4-3 DT or 3-4 DE.
Texas A&M’s Von Miller and UNC’s Robert Quinn are hybrid DE’s that will most likely be targeted as 3-4 OLB’s. Some people are hyping Miller as high as number 3 to Buffalo, but I don’t see it. He has a quick first step, but watching some of his games, that’s his only pass rush move: run around the OT. He creates a massive lane for the quarterback to scramble through and gets smothered when he tries to go inside. It’s Aaron Maybin (two years in, still looking for his first NFL sack) all over again. Miller has more character and will be better in coverage and against the run than Maybin, but I don’t see his knack for pestering QB’s translating to the NFL. He actually looks like a 4-3 strong side linebacker more than anything else.
Quinn is coming off a year long NCAA suspension and no one is really sure what kind of player he’ll be right away. People drool over his athleticism, but I’m not sure if he’ll be physical enough to hold up the edge of a defense at the next level. Gaines Adams anyone? He seems like a 3-4 prospect, but he might actually be better off in a 4-3 with a team that likes undersized defensive ends.
Despite where they rank out as prospects, the top ten will likely be rounded out by the two quarterbacks. The battle for top QB will be an interesting race. Both players have to learn how to play outside of the spread offense. Both players have freakish size. Newton has more collegiate pelts on the wall and a slightly higher ceiling while Gabbert has fewer character questions. Gabbert makes me think of Matthew Stafford with more mobility, but a slightly lesser arm, less pedigree, and without the experience under center. Realistically, Gabbert probably grades out as a mid first round guy. However, in a draft that is a logjam of “very good” players with most of the teams picking early starved for QB talent, I’d be surprised if he makes it out of the top ten. Newton, on the other hand, is a shooting star. He has some poor character flags from early in his college career, but he has said and done all the right things ever since. A lackluster National Championship game slowed his momentum, but one unconventional media-only workout to display his NFL preparation efforts and he’s right back on track to climb up the draft ladder. He’s working with a QB coach six days a week and receiving tutelage from Hall of Fame quarterback Warren Moon. He has to convince teams he is more Josh Freeman than Vince Young and he’s doing a great job. Vince Young liked to tell people how good he was going to be. Cam Newton is talking about what he’s going to do to be good. Stay tuned.
With the fifth pick, Miller is getting some play, but I don’t see how the Cardinals can get away from taking a quarterback unless Newton is gone and they don’t like the value of Gabbert. Cleveland is sitting at six, hoping for Buffalo or Cincy to take a QB so they can get a crack at Green, the one glaring missing piece to their offensive puzzle (a part of me will cringe if the Bengals don’t pick Green knowing that he’ll fall right into Cleveland’s lap). The 49ers would be well served with a value pick of either Amukamara or Dareus. The Titans need a QB at eight and go for the Gabbert gamble while Dallas sits at nine and takes whoever San Francisco passes up. Washington feels left out in the cold and takes Miller as a value pick.
That’s all for now. Stay tuned for a full mock prior to draft day.
