Mocking it Up!

Super Bad Pick

Well, my Colts by 17 pick was quite the prediction, eh? New Orleans took care of business outplaying Indianapolis in all aspects of the game. Brees was a shoe-in for MVP, but I was most impressed with the performance by Saints coach Sean Payton.

Sorry Marvin Lewis, but how does Payton not win coach of the year? Payton’s display on the league’s biggest stage makes me think maybe they should look past the regular season when deciding such accolades. He coached a brilliant game, start to finish. His lone mistake was that ridiculous onside kick call. Analysts will rave on forever about how “gutsy” it was and it is going to drive me crazy. Yes, the play had a huge impact on the game, but it would have had an equally huge impact in the opposite direction if the Saints didn’t get the ball back. They totally caught the Colts off guard and still appeared to only recover the kick because the ball got pinned up against somebody’s leg making it hard for the Colts player to secure the ball. Their game plan was unfolding beautifully and they decided more or less to gamble the entire game on one mad scramble for the football. No matter what they saw on film, the onside kick was a mistake.

It’s a good thing the Saints recovered that ball because it would have been a shame to spoil the masterpiece put together by Payton for the rest of the game. The pace was crucial. If it weren’t for the extended halftime show, the game might have been over by 9:00. The Saints came up with what seemed like dozens of 10 to 15-yard first down plays. Crafting long sustaining drives, they kept momentum and bled the clock. Indy’s biggest weakness was their corners and Payton ran 10-yard outs with those big receivers all day long to exploit it. They kept Peyton Manning off the field, but more importantly they minimized Indy’s experience advantage. The Saints’ players didn’t have a chance to realize what they were doing. Before they could freeze up and blow the game like they tried to do against the Vikings, the game ended.

The aftermath of the game, as expected sparked loads of media discussion about Manning’s status among great quarterbacks. One loss and all of the critics who used to constantly harp on all of his big game failures come crawling out of the woodwork. Yes, the “best ever” moniker has to go back on the shelf for a while, but calling the guy a choke artist is going a little too far. Manning has been voted MVP more times than anyone else because he is the most valuable player. How many quarterbacks could threaten an undefeated season with Charlie Johnson and Ryan Diem as their starting offensive tackles? He makes everyone in that franchise better from Austin Collie to Dwight Freeney all the way up to team President Bill Polian. Peyton Manning didn’t lose the Super Bowl. The Colts lost the Super Bowl because they got out-schemed and out-coached.

The Mock Madness Begins!

1. St. Louis:

The Rams followed up their two win season a year ago with a one win season and have earned the honor of picking number one overall in the draft. “You need a quarterback. Your offensive line is still in shambles. You don’t want to tie up too much money on your defensive line.” Don’t mind those whispers in the background. That’s just Detroit trying to convince St. Louis not to take Ndamukong Suh. Yes, St. Louis has greater needs elsewhere, but you don’t draft need over value with the number one pick. There is too much at stake. Don’t blink. Don’t think. Just take the best player available and most agree that Suh is the guy.
The Pick: Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska

2. Detroit:

Assuming St. Louis doesn’t do something crazy, the Lions will miss out on Suh. Lucky for them, there is someone touted as being almost as good for them to take instead. They have some work to do to get more physical on the offensive and defensive lines. A stud OT would be nice, but DT Gerald McCoy is considered a better prospect than any O-lineman available.
The Pick: Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma

3. Tampa Bay:

Here’s where things start to get interesting. The Buccaneers could use a wide receiver and need players just about everywhere on defense. They purged the majority of their veterans from last year’s roster and the one they kept, Ronde Barber, is starting to lose a step. Safety Eric Berry is the highest rated player at this point and a lot of mock drafts are tabbing him as Tampa’s guy. He is a special player, but a safety number 3 overall? Even Sean Taylor didn’t get taken until the fifth pick. The Bucs need defensive linemen just as bad as DB’s. I think pass rushing talent will win out in the end. DE Derrick Morgan isn’t a finished product, but he has everything scouts crave in defensive end prospects. He has size, speed, an impressive repertoire of pass-rush moves and he holds up strong against the run. By the time April rolls around, I think Morgan will have gained a lot of momentum. He might even threaten McCoy for the number two slot.
The Pick: Derrick Morgan, DE, Geogia Tech

4. Washington

What a coincidence. Washington has the fourth pick and this year’s draft class has the rare distinction of having a safety with top 5 talent. As weird as it would be to see the Redskins pick in the top 10 without taking a DB (see Laron Landry, Carlos Rogers and Sean Taylor), I don’t see new coach Mike Shanahan selecting a safety with his first choice as head man in Washington. A lot of people think Shanahan will go for his quarterback of the future here. Keep an eye on Sam Bradford’s draft stock, but at this point I think the Redskins are better served making a safer pick for a greater need. Russell Okung is currently thought to be the best all-around blocker available. Washington desperately needs talented youth on their offensive line.
The Pick: Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State

5. Kansas City

Who will pick Eric Berry? The final landing spots of QB’s are usually some of the more interesting storylines on draft day. I think it’s just as interesting to watch what happens when great players come along at lower value positions (S, LB, RB). Berry is considered a top five talent in the 2010 draft class. However, he is a safety. A lot of teams with high picks find it hard to commit the obligatory large sums of guaranteed money to lower impact positions. A lot of analysts are slotting OT in this spot for that very reason. It will be interesting. I think you might see a little bit of the opposite effect. Poor economic times and the unsettling labor landscape facing the NFL might force teams to opt for giving an elite guy like Berry more money instead of gambling on a boom or bust OT prospect.
The Pick: Eric Berry, S, Tennessee

6. Seattle

There is always at least one surprising coaching change at the end of each NFL season. The Seahawks made this year’s headlines in recent weeks when they coaxed USC coach Pete Carroll to head north. Carroll has plenty of work to do finding a quarterback to build around and reconstructing the offensive line. Rutgers OT Anthony Davis is a contender here, but when it’s all said and done I think Sam Bradford gains enough momentum to get the nod. They can squeeze another year out of Hasselbeck and hopefully have a chance to retool the o-line before Bradford has to take over.
The Pick: Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma

7. Cleveland

Having a roster desperate for offensive skill position players, I’m sure the newly appointed director of football operations, Mike Holmgren, would love to grab a weapon on his favorite side of the ball. Unfortunately, Oklahoma State WR Dez Bryant might be his only option along those lines and it is probably a few picks early for him even. He will most likely have to opt for defense instead. I think OLB is their biggest need, but the pickins are slim in the top half of the first round this year. The best value looks like Florida CB Joe Haden. Haden easily stands out above the rest of the CB’s in the draft. The theme continues. Play it safe. Don’t reach. Take the best player available.
The Pick: Joe Haden, CB, Florida

8. Oakland

This is where “play it safe” gets thrown out the window. Here we are again with the chore of trying to predict the Raiders in the top 10. The quarterback situation is a mess but I don’t think they’ll try to address that here. They need an OT, but that would make way too much sense. The next best bet is defensive end. Most have dropped Florida defensive end Carlos Dunlap in projections for maturity concerns, but if Al Davis thinks Dunlap can play, Davis won’t be scared to pick him. Stay tuned to see where his draft stock ends up.
The Pick: Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida

9. Buffalo

The Bills are yet another franchise with questions at QB and OT. Some think they’ll take a QB here but I don’t see them giving up on Trent Edwards quite yet. In that case, Buffalo will be ecstatic if Oakland does pass on the OT’s. They beefed up the interior portion of their line in last year’s draft. Now it’s time to secure the edge. Many think Anthony Davis is the most talented OT of the class. Right now, I see him as 2010’s version of Andre Smith. While he’s not likely to commit as many pre-draft gaffes as Smith, I think questions about his attitude will rule him out of top 5 contention.
The Pick: Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers

10. Denver

The Jaguars and the Broncos will flip a coin for the tenth pick so for now I’ll go ahead and cover both of them. The Broncos acquired this pick in the Cutler trade. Might they use it to pick their next quarterback? Until we get a better idea of Jimmy Clausen’s value, I’m going to say no. Denver could use help with their run defense, but it is too early for the second tier of DT’s. Next on Denver’s list should probably be wide receiver. Brandon Marshall might be out the door and Eddie Royal’s production dropped off in his second year. Even if Marshall doesn’t leave, Dez Bryant makes sense. Having been ineligible for most of the college season, grading Bryant as a top 10 talent is basically an assumption right now. He will have a lot of money at stake during workouts the next two months.
The Pick: Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State

11. Jacksonville

The Jaguars entered the home stretch of the season with playoff aspirations. Instead, they lost five of six and finished last in the AFC south. They focused on retooling the o-line in ’09 and finally might be going in the right direction at receiver. However, they are weak at strong side linebacker and still haven’t come up with a solution at DE. They can probably find a linebacker later. Depending on how things play out, it might boil down to Dunlap or Jason Pierre-Paul. Pierre-Paul is dynamic, but only has one year of D1 college experience. Last season’s film should be enough though and it will probably come down to whether he measures out big enough to play 4-3 DE in the pros.
The Pick: Jason Perre-Paul, DE, South Florida

Stay tuned for combine reaction, and hopefully I’ll get back to some long overdue Bengals chatter.

Going Bowling

As one player’s career prepares to rocket inevitably towards the status of legend in Miami, a legend’s career sputters just trying to get off the ground in Mobile. We’re in the dead of winter, the college season is over, and it’s time for the two most interesting bowls of all: the Super Bowl and the Senior Bowl.

The Super Bowl

The Super Bowl is a dreadful event. No wait, that’s a little harsh.
The Super Bowl is like George Foreman. Once a strong champion(ship) with enormous punching power, it ballooned to larger than life proportions in the late 80’s. While not quite as great as it used to be in its younger, fresher days, it still connects with one of those haymakers every once in a while to capture our intrigue. Today it lives on as a monstrous cultural icon that cannot be ignored. Plus, each new member of the Super Bowl family is named “Super Bowl” after the original. Okay, now I’m really reaching but seriously, the Super Bowl is out of control. The game that has turned into a weeklong circus has grown so absurdly huge that for a city to host the Super Bowl it must submit a bid to prove its capability of holding the festivities. Thousands of media members converge on “radio row” for one giant gossip-laden shmooze fest. The spectacle has built up over the years. Unfortunately, at the end of the road you’re still just talking about a football game that isn’t played any differently than the football games played two weeks ago. With all of the hype it’s pretty difficult as a fan to walk away from the game satisfied. We’ve been pretty lucky the last two years, but how often can you expect the underdog team’s quarterback to pull a Houdini move and hurl a desperate pass down the field to a receiver who acrobatically pins the ball between his hand and his helmet to spur a fourth quarter comeback? Nonetheless, the Super Bowl is still football’s championship, and the legacy of professional sports careers are ultimately measured in championships. As anti-climatic as the game may be, here is my take on Super Bowl XLIV.

Can’t you just picture Peyton Manning in a space suit on a launching pad preparing to get rocketed into orbit where he will live forever as football royalty? It looks as though this game is his chance to make a bid for the crown of greatest quarterback ever. If he wins it seems as though nothing short of injury could keep him from the title. If he loses, he’ll have an uphill battle to separate himself from the likes of Joe Montana, Johnny Unitas, and even Tom Brady.

After the championship games, the Colts were the consensus pick to win as the betting line for the Super Bowl started out at 4 points and then crept up to 7 as gamblers started to bet mostly on Indy. Things have cooled down some and the Dwight Freeney injury has a decent-sized contingent swaying towards New Orleans. However, I just can’t get past the way the Saints looked in the fourth quarter of the Vikings game. They froze up. The game was too big for them and they got jittery. Maybe they got it out of their system and will play a crisp game this weekend, but I can’t see them winning. Manning is too good. The Jets were one of those teams that catch fire at the end of the year and ride a wave all the way to the Super Bowl. They had the right formula. Take away the top two weapons to slow down the Indianapolis offense and use that big offensive line to grind them down until they topple over. It worked for two and a half quarters. Midway through the third, Manning’s trap sprung and all of a sudden you realized it was the Jets that were ground down. Greg Williams’ defense will come at Indy with a few more fireworks, but I think by the fourth quarter they will run out of magic tricks. Does the Freeney injury leave the door cracked open for the Saints? Probably, but Indy’s linebackers and safeties were fantastic against that Jets running game. I think they will force Drew Brees into one-dimensional shootout mode. They will keep pace for a while, but I like Indianapolis to separate in the fourth quarter.
The Pick: Colts by 17

The Senior Bowl:

Before all of the madness invaded Miami, the NFL world converged on Mobile, Alabama for a peek at college football’s best and brightest seniors during last week’s Senior Bowl practices. Amongst the players vying for the attention of NFL coaches and scouts was perhaps one of the greatest college football players of all time. The biggest storyline revolved around how Tim Tebow looked. How was he adjusting to pro-style formations and coaching? Can he play quarterback in the NFL? Despite all of the media focus on Tebow, there were plenty of winners and losers throughout both the North and South squads. Here are some of the highlights.

The Winners:

Brandon Graham, DE, Michigan:
I was expecting Graham to be a little bit bigger, but weighing in around 265 lbs probably helps him out to some extent as he’s still big enough to draft as a 4-3 DE, but he’s small enough to draw OLB considerations. Analysts reported Graham’s performance on the field as strong all week long. He was clearly more polished than any other defensive end participant and showed a strong ability to win one on one confrontations against offensive lineman. His stock probably jumps from late round 1 to the 15 to 20 range.

Jared Odrick, DT, Penn. St.:
As a smaller DT, Odrick isn’t capable of being a 2-gap clog-the-middle type of player so it was important for Odrick to demonstrate an ability to penetrate into the offensive backfield. Like Graham, Odrick stood out among his position group and displayed consistently the quickness and high-motor necessary to make plays behind the line of scrimmage. With the strong performance, Odrick now finds himself solidly in the first round with a chance to crack the top 25.

Dexter McCluster, RB, Mississippi:
At 5’ 6” and 165 lbs, the term undersized doesn’t really cut it here. If a special teams coach somewhere can figure out how to keep this little guy from getting broken, he is going to score a few TD’s next year. McCluster is lightning quick and runs with fearless ferocity, even between the tackles.

Go Bearcats!
Cincinnati standouts Mardy Gilyard and Tony Pike also did well for themselves last week. Gilyard wasn’t consistent catching the ball but showed off his quickness and rout running abilities. Teams needing a wide receiver will have a hard time passing him up in the mid to late second round. Pike didn’t dazzle throughout the week, but he looked good. He showed good arm strength and gave the impression he might be okay transitioning away from the spread offense. Scouts will have plenty of debates between now and April as to whether Pike is cool as a cucumber or just plain aloof. For right now, he has safely passed Tebow and has Colt McCoy in his sights as he looks to challenge become the third QB taken in the draft.

Other strong showings:
Riley Cooper (Florida) turned heads with great catches all week and the Jordy Nelson comparisons are starting already. Guard Mike Iupati (Idaho) stood out among offensive lineman and now has a good shot to draw first round consideration. Tennessee DT Dan Williams has more size than Odrick. His potential as a nose tackle slides him to the top half of the first round.

The Losers:

Tim Tebow, QB? Florida:
It doesn’t sound right to classify a guy that has succeeded like Tebow as a loser, but he certainly hit a major bump in the road last week. The nightmares that everyone envisioned of Tebow trying to take snaps under center turned out to be just as gruesome as analysts imagined. If fumbled QB/center exchanges weren’t enough to put Tebow’s draft stock on ice, his work during passing sessions throughout the week did the trick. Scouts were left wondering if maybe the guy should just ditch his mechanics and start from scratch. After the Sugar Bowl, I think some people began to think he might be alright as a pro QB. Now the potential for a position switch is the only thing that keeps his stock hovering in the third round range.

Terrence Cody, DT, Alabama:
Mount Cody came to Mobile on a mission to prove his worth as a massive space-eating defensive tackle. Mission failed. His fitness was poor and he didn’t exactly overpower people at the line of scrimmage. A good showing could have gained him round 2 status. Now, he has to worry about slipping out of round 3.

Vladimir Ducasse, OT, Massachusetts:
Ducasse is a small-school prospect that many thought could show off his athleticism and draw first round consideration if he showed OT potential. However, his lack of experience stuck out all week. It’s not the end of the world though. Even if they move him to guard, I don’t think he’ll fall past the bottom of round 2.

Overall, I think we learned some things from the Senior Bowl. There weren’t really any elite prospects on hand, but the late round 1/round 2 type of player was well represented. Draft boards are starting to shuffle, but from here things should stay fairly quiet until combine week. Keep an eye out for my first partial mock draft between now and then. In the meantime, we can look forward to a game featuring the art form that is Peyton Manning playing quarterback. The stage might be a little too big, but it should be quite a sight to see. Kick back, relax, grab some junk food, and enjoy the Super Bowl. It’s as American as apple...no wait. It’s as American as the George Foreman Grill.