It was a dream for Bengals fans watching the football season unfold in December and January where the team finally caught all of the breaks we always thought we had a chance to catch.
But in the end the rickety offensive line proved to be too much. Yes, we’ll all have the Logan Wilson “hold” along with about 10 other moments that could have swung the game etched in our brains forever (why is Eli Apple one on one with Cooper Kupp? The Rams D-line is selling out in pass rush the whole fourth quarter. Do you think maybe they were vulnerable to a screen?), but it’s hard to deny the reason they lost was the offensive line.
They were basically fighting with one arm tied behind their back for four straight playoff games. the Super Bowl could have or maybe should have gone different but a lot had to go right to accomplish what they managed with the hand they were dealt.
Last year the defense wasn’t good enough, the offensive playmakers were inconsistent, and the offensive line was bad. The natural move was to fix the offensive line above all else and worry about the rest later. The weapons would grow together and if the offense got right, it would buy them enough time to try to salvage the defense later. That’s what I would have done. Instead they chose to try to thread the needle in one offseason. Now that we’ve seen the season play out, hats off to them. They were right. Any playoff run would have been considered a success but it darn near worked to the fullest extent possible. If one of the young guards would have panned out or Riley Reiff had not have gone down, we might all be dreaming of a dynasty instead of thinking of what might have been.
So Where do they go from here? The post Super Bowl analysis has ranged from confidence from the analytics wizards that the regression monsters will come to knock the Bengals back down where they belong to optimism for the bright future Bengals. There’s some truth to both sides of the coin, but each perspective also seems to be missing the target to some extent. Let’s sort through it.
Defensive performance year to year isn’t sticky.
The Burrow to Chase deep ball success rate has to regress.
This team can’t possibly replicate their success next year.
Ok, but are we ignoring the possibility for positive regression? The defense was up and down this year. It’s not Iike they trotted out the ‘85 Bears and we can’t possibly expect that level of execution. Maybe Hendrickson’s sack numbers come down a little, but what if the Hubbard/Ossai/Sample/Kareem/potential free agent or draft pick come back healthier and more experienced and have an uptick in production? Linebacker depth got decimated last year. What if the young guys continue to blossom and are able to stay fresher with more support? Maybe Awuzie takes a step back from a career year but what if they upgrade at CB2 and keep everything else in tact? Assuming they work something out with Bates, they bring back the same core of players mostly in their primes or ascending with basically the same coaching staff that is also potentially ascending. The defense might be worse but the odds aren’t long that they might be better.
On offense deep ball efficiency should come down… if all variables are the same. Again, we’re talking about ascending talents here. Year 2 Chase with a full offseason in the system being able to work with his quarterback should be better than rookie Chase who had limited access to a rehabbing Burrow and hadn’t played a competitive football game in more than a year and a half.
Burrow has continually showed improvement when facing opponents for the second time. Last year he had nine games under his belt with the uncertainty of a reconstructed knee to worry about. Now he has seen the league for 29 games.
Red zone efficiency was bad. Third down efficiency was bad. There’s a lot that goes into those metrics that has nothing to do with variance, but the point is if you’re penciling in regression for this offense, you’re ignoring some of the dynamic variables in the equation. Abnormally high go ball efficiency was the engine that drove the offense this year. Yes they can’t count on that every year, but what if they don’t have to?
Which brings us to the elephant in the room that has tentacles in all of this. Burrow has proven his ability to read and react is what makes him special. Now give him one more second. Jamar Chase is a threat everywhere on the field whether he gets separation or not. Now give him one more second. Give Joe Mixon .5 yard before he sees contact instead of -.5 yards. Analytics can calculate the probability of this team to regress, but Duke Tobin can change the equation by allocating resources to the offensive line.
Others contend 2021 success is all about Burrow.
They didn’t have a quarterback. Now they lucked into a great one. The front office hasn’t changed their approach. It’s the same old Bengals.
First of all, put down those Joe Burrow’s rose colored glasses. He is the main pillar they are building around. His personality permeates through the building. I routinely pinch myself at the reality of an offense that can gain less than five yards on first down and I DON’T have to assume a punt is coming soon. He has been great.. at times. you could even call him streaky. I fully expect him to improve and there are certainly factors bogging down his success that aren’t his fault. But let’s not pretend that he’s been an unstoppable force that’s solely responsible for this rebuild. The defense is contributing. The coaching staff is contributing. And, maybe most of all, the front office has been a major catalyst in the steady improvement over the last two years right on through the breakthrough in week 17 and the playoff run.
On the other hand, some are willing to give a nod to recent front office moves, but they can’t resist trotting out some of the same tired narratives at the same time.
This franchise is cheap and hasn’t historically cared about winning. Look at them though they’re loosening up those purse strings in free agency and it’s paying off.
Mike Brown certainly doesn’t take the Mark Cuban approach to running a franchise but they don’t rank all that poorly in total salary year to year. Their normal neglect to spend this time of year isn’t cheapness. This is a draft and develop team. They aren’t spending in free agency now because they are turning over a new leaf. They had a string of bad drafts and the money they normally use to sign extensions is available to use in free agency to plug voids in the roster left by the John Ross’, the Cedric Ogbuehi’s, and the Billy Price’s of the world.
Bengals Recent Draft Woes:
People point to guaranteed money and cash spend. The team’s strategy at managing the salary cap is a different story than their willingness to sign contracts that can help the team win. Structuring contracts with bonuses to spread the cap hit can help short term but it causes less flexibility in the long run when they don’t know what they need.
And oh by the way, this is the correct strategy for this market! Teams pay a premium in free agency. Cincinnati pays a premium on top of that. Relying on free agency dollars to build their roster puts them at a disadvantage. Teams consistently push chips onto the table to try to load up for a big push and then when they eventually have to face the cap music they get dragged for it. The Bengals steadfastly avoid backing themselves into a corner and they still get bashed.
Part of the reason why i’m so disappointed with the Super Bowl result is less that the Bengals lost than that the Rams won. I still believe the Bengals team building approach is superior and now pundits have ammunition that stars and scrubs works. All in works better than all around.
That game could have gone either way. The Bengals lost and they have resources to reload. If the Rams lost, they would have entered into crisis mode.
Some will look for big swings from the Bengals this offseason. I’m looking for Tobin to work his magic. Spend the right amount. Add depth in the draft. Don’t thread the needle this time around. Duke has the hammer. Smash the need. Don’t mortgage the future. But don’t dawdle tinkering with pass rush or CB2 week 1 of free agency.
It’s simple, if they can’t block better, this is irreplicable.
The Super Bowl loss hurts, but maybe in 2022 we’ll learn that all in might give you a chance, but draft and develop gives you two chances (or more).
