The Bengals are slowly but surely ticking off their needs. The fourth round starts tomorrow and once again, the Bengals are leading off. Here's a few options for different directions they could go.
Disclaimer, this is a little deeper than I was able to get to at some positions so some of these guys I'm going off more things I've heard and read rather than guys I've actually watched.
Best Options at the Top of Round 4:
My preference for Cincy in the fourth round is to lean O-Line, but some of the defenders are intriguing.
1. Ben Bartch, OT St. John
2. Jack Driscoll, OT Auburn
3. Ben Bredeson, G Michigan
4. Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR Michigan
5. Bryce Hall, CB Virginia
6. Curtis Weaver, DE Boise state
I like the idea of Bartch and even Charles as a developmental LT.
Driscoll would make for decent RT depth to try to push Bobby Hart.
Any of the guards would be fine I think, but Bredeson is the one I liked the most of the guys left that I watched.
Biadasz is a center that I didn't really like, but I've heard he looked like a borderline first rounder in 2018 and struggled with injuries in 2019.
They don't need another WR necessarily, but Peoples-Jones is one of the few guys left with the physical traits to turn into something special. He's 6'2" with a 44" vertical. Surely somebody can unlock some of his potential. It's not like he's a total raw project either. He flashed for sure, but Michigan's offense was so scatter-brained, it's hard to tell if he's a guy that's just never going to click of if he's a steal of a pick waiting to happen.
Weaver was a solid productive player at Boise State. He's not a bendy player, but he'll get the job done.
Hall is coming off an serious ankle injury, but once he gets back up to speed he could develop into a starter.
List of names to watch by position:
OT
Saahdiq Charles, LSU
Ben Bartch, St. John
Jack Driscoll, Auburn
Prince Tega Wanogho, Auburn
IOL
Michael Onwenu, Michigan
Nick Harris, Washington
Ben Bredeson, Michigan
Tyler Biadasz, Wisconsin
Netane Muti, Fresno State
Shane Lemieux, Oregon
WR
Donovan Peoples-Jones, Michigan
Quartney Davis, Texas A&M
Quentez Cephus, Wisconsin
Tyler Johnson, Minnesota
TE
Hunter Bryant, Washington
Brycen Hopkins, Purdue
RB
Eno Benjamin, Arizona State
DE
Curtis Weaver, Boise State
Khalid Kareem, Notre Dame
Bradlee Anae, Utah
LB
Akeem Davis-Gaither, Appalachian State
Troy Dye, Oregon
David Woodward, Utah State
CB
Bryce Hall, Virginia
Amik Robertson, Louisiana Tech
Troy Pride Jr., Notre Dame
S
K'von Wallace, Clemson
Alohi Gillman, Notre Dame
Friday, April 24, 2020
2020 Draft: Day 2 Preview
Day 1 of the 2020 draft is in the books. Things started a little close to the vest for the first 11 picks or so and then got wild as elite wide receivers started tumbling down the draft board. There were thrills, there were reaches, there were hand slaps to the forehead. I'll try to hit some of those highlights later
For now let's focus on what to watch for in day two of the draft.
The Bengals have some pretty interesting options with the 33rd pick. Here's my wish list in terms of how I would stack their big board:
1. Denzel Mims, WR Baylor
2. Tee Higigns, WR Clemson
3. Laviska Shenault, WR Colorado
4. Lucas Niang, OT TCU (might slide down due to injury status)
5. Ezra Cleveland, OT Boise State
6. Josh Jones, OT Houston
7. Yetur Gross-Matos, DE Penn State
8. A.J. Epenesa, DE Iowa
9. Lloyd Cushenberry, C/G LSU
10. Jonah Jackson, G Ohio State
11. Kristian Fulton, CB LSU
Here are a bunch of names to keep on the radar (by position):
Josh Uche, DE Michigan
Zack Baun, OLB Wisconsin (not sure where everything is with the diluted sample from the combine)
Trevon Diggs, CB Alabama
Bryce Hall, CB Virginia
Jaylon Johnson, CB Utah
Antoine Winfield Jr, S Minnesota
Jeremy Chinn, S Southern Illinois
Ashtyn Davis, S California
Van Jefferson, WR Florida
Bryan Edwards, WR South Carolina
Michael Pittman Jr., WR USC
Raekwon Davis, DT Alabama
Davon Hamilton, DT Ohio State
Marlon Davidson, DT Aurburn
Guys likely to get taken before pick 65 that likely the Bengals would not be interested in:
1. J.K. Dobbins, RB Ohio State
2. D'Andre Swift, RB Georgia
3. Jonathan Taylor, RB Florida State
4. Cam Akers, RB Florida State
5. Jalen Hurts, QB Oklahoma
6. Jacob Eason, QB Washington
For now let's focus on what to watch for in day two of the draft.
The Bengals have some pretty interesting options with the 33rd pick. Here's my wish list in terms of how I would stack their big board:
1. Denzel Mims, WR Baylor
2. Tee Higigns, WR Clemson
3. Laviska Shenault, WR Colorado
4. Lucas Niang, OT TCU (might slide down due to injury status)
5. Ezra Cleveland, OT Boise State
6. Josh Jones, OT Houston
7. Yetur Gross-Matos, DE Penn State
8. A.J. Epenesa, DE Iowa
9. Lloyd Cushenberry, C/G LSU
10. Jonah Jackson, G Ohio State
11. Kristian Fulton, CB LSU
12. Xavier McKinniey, S Alabama
13. Grant Delpit, S LSU
14. Justin Madubuike, DT Texas A&M
15. Ross Blacklock, DT TCU
16. Neville Gallimore, DT Oklahoma
15. Ross Blacklock, DT TCU
16. Neville Gallimore, DT Oklahoma
17. Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR Michigan
Here are a bunch of names to keep on the radar (by position):
Josh Uche, DE Michigan
Zack Baun, OLB Wisconsin (not sure where everything is with the diluted sample from the combine)
Bryce Hall, CB Virginia
Jaylon Johnson, CB Utah
Antoine Winfield Jr, S Minnesota
Jeremy Chinn, S Southern Illinois
Ashtyn Davis, S California
Van Jefferson, WR Florida
Bryan Edwards, WR South Carolina
Michael Pittman Jr., WR USC
Raekwon Davis, DT Alabama
Davon Hamilton, DT Ohio State
Marlon Davidson, DT Aurburn
Guys likely to get taken before pick 65 that likely the Bengals would not be interested in:
1. J.K. Dobbins, RB Ohio State
2. D'Andre Swift, RB Georgia
3. Jonathan Taylor, RB Florida State
4. Cam Akers, RB Florida State
5. Jalen Hurts, QB Oklahoma
6. Jacob Eason, QB Washington
Thursday, April 23, 2020
2020 Final Mock Draft
1. Cincinnati
No Godfather offers come in. I’m not even sure what it would have to be, but the price tag in my head as a fan is much higher than anything I’ve heard floated out there by any analyst debating this topic. I’m talking Miami would have to drop all three first round picks this year, both first round picks next year, and multiple second round picks (probably one this year and one next year.. And even then I’d still be queasy about it!! So really, it just becomes a matter of just take your guy.
The Pick: Joe Burrow, QB LSU
2. Washington
The Tagovailoa injury and the presence of a rare edge talent have let Washington off the hook from the pressure of whether they should take another quarterback. I don’t condone taking rating star caliber QB prospects behind other positions, but Young is rated as the top prospect in the class in some circles and is often described as a more athletic version of the Bosa brothers.
The Pick: Chase Young, DE Ohio State
3. Detroit
Okudah is the consensus here, but I’m not convinced. The Lions will draw positional value ire from the masses for picking Simmons this high, but I’m projecting they’ll see his versatility as the missing link to their defense, and I’m not so sure that I disagree with them.
The Pick: Isaiah Simmons, Defense Clemson
4. N.Y. Giants- TRADE – L.A. Chargers
The smoke surrounding Tagovailoa is out of control. Call in all fire departments from neighboring counties! Nobody can see! Nobody can breathe! This thing is out of control. As a steadfast QB value guy, even I’m starting to waiver into thinking that the league might actually let Tagovailoa slide down the draft board. Logic wins in the end. High end quarterback talent is worth the risk. The Chargers are afraid Miami has been playing dead all along and decides to make a move to secure the star they need going into a new stadium in the L.A. market.
The Pick: Tua Tagovailoa, QB Alabama
5. Miami
It turns out Miami was smoke screening for a different quarterback the whole time. His tape isn’t as scary as devious, scheming general managers would have you believe.
The Pick: Jordan Love, QB Utah State
6. L.A. Chargers – Traded to N.Y. Giants – TRADE – Jacksonville
Everyone pokes fun at Dave Gettleman for never trading down. Now he’s going to do it twice in a row just to spite everyone. The Jaguars have hit the reset button on defense and an analytics driven front office will likely value the opportunity to rebuild everything around the top corner. I think Okudah is great, but not quite the sure-fire top three pick that he is being made out to be. His movement skills are special. His ability to mirror receivers in man coverage is great, but not elite.
The Pick: Jeff Okudah, CB Ohio State
7. Carolina – TRADE- Las Vegas
I can’t let these WR’s fall any farther. Let’s make a trade! Can’t you just hear Mike Mayock waxing poetic breaking down a CeeDee Lamb pick in an alternate universe where he still works for the NFL network? Lamb will look good in a Raiders uniform and Gruden has the elite weapon he’s been looking for.
The Pick: CeeDee Lamb, WR Oklahoma
8. Arizona – TRADE – San Francisco
Not to be outdone, the 49ers trade right up on the heels of their former bay area rival. Kyle Shanahan will bludgeon defenses running the ball and Jeudy and Deebo Samuel will carve whatever’s left to pieces. Check mate.
The Pick: Jerry Jeudy, WR Alabama
9. Jacksonville – Traded to N.Y. Giants
Gettleman, you sly dog. The Giants patiently move down and snag the best OT available.
The Pick: Andrew Thomas, OT Georgia
10. Cleveland
Cleveland opts for the monster from Louisville to plug in at LT. It might be a bit of a reach, but at least they are filling their biggest need, and if you are going to fill a hole you might as well fill it with 370 lbs. to make sure it is full.
The Pick: Mekhi Becton, OT Louisville
11. N.Y. Jets
OT’s fall to the Jets and they go receiver anyway to grab some sorely needed deep speed and high end WR potential. Can Ruggs anchor a receiving corps? I don’t think that’s his optimum role, but I’m excited to find out if he can do it.
The Pick: Henry Ruggs, WR Alabama
12. Las Vegas – Traded to Carolina
Carolina moves down and still gets the best defender available from when they were originally on the clock. Brown is a beast. He can flash quickness and penetration skills, but his main weapon is his bull strength that double teams sometimes struggle to contend with. My favorite play of anything I watched this year was a pass play in the Auburn vs. LSU game. Off the snap, Brown fired off the line and drove the guard back so violently that even Burrow couldn’t side step in time, and Brown legitimately got a sack without even touching the quarterback.
The Pick: Derrick Brown, DT Auburn
13. San Francisco (from Indianapolis) – Traded to Arizona
One of the elite receivers would have been a tantalizing addition to an already interesting offense, but the Cardinals do the sensible thing moving back and investing in a quality RT prospect.
The Pick: Jedrick Wills Jr., OT Alabama
14. Tampa Bay
In case you hadn’t heard , the Buccaneers just signed a 42 year old quarterback. Tampa Tom needs some blockers. I still think WIrfs will struggle out of the gate, but he at least gives them options.
The Pick: Tristan Wirfs, OT Iowa
15. Denver – TRADE – Dallas
The Cowboys trade up to snag their replacement for Byron Jones. Henderson isn’t the most physical corner in the world, but some say his man coverage skills might be better than Okudah’s. I think that’s a bit of an overstatement, but Henderson should allow the other pieces of their secondary to fit into more natural roles.
The Pick: C.J. Henderson, CB Florida
16. Atlanta
There has been talk of Atlanta trading up, but in this case they stay put and snag pretty good value. Kinlaw didn’t show as much power as Brown in the 2019 games that I watched but he looked strong enough for sure and had more speed.
The Pick: Javon Kinlaw South Carolina
17. Dallas – Traded to Denver – TRADE – New England
Bill Bellichick is looming in all of this “The sky is falling, the sky is falling, Tua’s gonna fall!!” discussion that has been rampant the last few days. If he starts to slide, how high up would New England go to get him? The outrage from non-Patriots fans if Bellichick pulls it off would be intolerable and that’s coming from someone that would be almost as equally as annoyed. It feels like a situation where everyone overreacts and then four years from now as Tagovailoa, the Trojan horse that brought down the Patriots dynasty, is retiring due to injury we all look back sheepishly at how mad we were. Regardless of the risk, I’d still take Tagovailoa in the top five picks, and that’s what I’m predicting. In this scenario, the Patriots are trading up for Herbert and we will all delight at his failure or be tortured by his success, and it doesn’t feel like there is any potential middle ground.
The Pick: Justin Herbert, QB Oregon
18. Miami (From Pittsburgh)
The dolphins snagged a QB at the top. Being too early to invest in the next wave of OT’s, they turn to defense. I have Yetur Gross-Matos as the next best edge player. Some will laud Chaisson in this slot, but Gross-Matos is just a bigger, stronger player with speed and quickness that are at least equivalent Chaisson.
The Pick: Yetur Gross-Matos, DE Penn State
19. Las Vegas (from Chicago) – Traded to Carolina
The Raiders moved up early to get an elite receiving weapon and Carolina slid their second round pick into the 19th slot with a pick swap. The Panthers continue to solidify the middle of their defense with a middle linebacker that has the size and instincts to excel in run support, the speed to drop into coverage , and near unanimous approval of his character.
The Pick: Kenneth Murray, LB Oklahoma
20. Jacksonville (from L.A. Rams)
The jaguars continue to rebuild the secondary with a safety that is an effective blitzer that thumps ball carriers, but can also play centerfield and cover tight ends.
The Pick: Xavier McKinney, S Alabama
21. Philadelphia
The Eagles need receivers so bad that even non-Eagles fans want them to pick WR’s. I won’t disappoint here. Denzel Mims has athleticism to spare, but he’s not as raw of a receiving talent as you might think. The Eagles get a fine candidate to develop into a WR1.
The Pick: Denzel Mims, WR Baylor
22. Minnesota (from Buffalo)
Linebacker isn’t super high on Minnesota’s needs list, but another athletic playmaker will be a good fit in a defense that is retooling a bit this offseason.
The Pick: Patrick Queen, LB LSU
23. New England – Traded to Denver
Denver moves back twice to pick up some extra assets. Now they fill a big need with a solid corner prospect.
The Pick: Jeff Gladney, CB TCU
24. New Orleans
With the two best LB prospects off the board, the Saints opt to add depth across from Marshon Lattimore. Fulton will struggle against elite receivers, but he should be a solid CB2.
The Pick: Kristian Fulton, CB LSU
25. Minnesota
It’s a run on LSU players as the Vikings seek to build back up their receiving corps. Jefferson might seem a little duplicative to Adam Thielen, but both guys should be effective playing inside and outside. In a way it will make them more versatile, and the relief to Kirk Cousins of replacing Stephon Diggs with a high character player that doesn’t need to be spoon fed touches should be palpable.
The Pick: Justin Jefferson, WR LSU
26. Miami (from Houston)
His dad was selected 23rd overall by the Bills. Antoine Winfield Jr. goes 26th overall to a different AFC east team. At 5’9”, Winfield gets caught in traffic at times coming up to play run defense, but overall he has good instincts and is adept at making plays in coverage.
The Pick: Antoine Winfield Jr., S Minnesota
27. Seattle
Whether they trade down like usual or stick in this slot to grab an edge defender, this feels like a good spot for Chaisson. I wanted to slide him down a little because I think he’s been a little overrated from what I’ve read and listened to, but more than likely he’ll be a first round pick. To me he’s undersized and not strong enough to hold up as a DE, but too big to be 4-3 linebacker. He’d be best as a 3-4 OLB, but I’m not sure who it is that is going to come get him.
The Pick: K’Lavon Chaisson, DE LSU
28. Baltimore
Baltimore might actually be the team keen on Chaisson if he falls this far. Alternatively, there’s been a lot of Patrick Queen talk in recent mock drafts. In this case, neither player fell to them and they will have to settle for a different LSU player. Grant Delpit was considered a top 15 player heading into the year and his stock has since fallen based on the perception that his play slipped a little from 2018 to 2019. I still see him as a high end safety prospect and Earl Thomas isn’t going to play forever. This would be classic Baltimore for a player like this to fall right into their laps.
The Pick: Grant Delpit, S LSU
29. Tennessee
The Titans feel like a team that is going to draft defensive line every year. There’s a cluster of DT’s worth going in this range, but I think Neville Gallimore gives them the best blend of size, strength and penetration.
The Pick: Neville Gallimore, DT Oklahoma
30. Green Bay
Aaron Rodgers might have a few years of prime left. It’s past time the Packers invested highly into offensive weapons. Jalen Reagor is the kind of explosive talent that would look outstanding across from Davante Adams. Reagor is a little shorter, but he gets down field in a hurry and has plenty of leaping ability to jump up and make plays. Maybe he should go a little higher, but seeing what Reagor can do with his talent with someone like Rodgers throwing to him is so intriguing that I refused to consider allowing anyone else to pick Reagor.
The Pick: Jalen Reagor, WR TCU
31. San Francisco
The 49ers managed to trade up five slots for Jeudy and hang on to pick 31. If they stay in this slot, I like them to go after IOL. In this case they have the pick of the litter and they go with Cesar Ruiz. I’ve seen others that are a lot higher on Ruiz and think he’s the clear number 1 center/guard prospect. I think it’s a little more muddled. He’s strong, but not overpowering. He runs past blocks a little more than I would like. His quickness is his biggest strength. I’d move him to guard where he can dig in a little harder and maximize his power and pull more effectively to utilize his speed.
The Pick: Cesar Ruiz, C Michigan
32. Kansas City – TRADE – N.Y. Jets
The Jets opted for WR earlier and now they move back in for O-line depth. Ezra Cleveland is a guy that has drawn a lot of late buzz as the fifth OT. I think he’ll eventually move to guard, but either way, he should help the Jets.
The Pick: Ezra Cleveland, OT Boise State
No Godfather offers come in. I’m not even sure what it would have to be, but the price tag in my head as a fan is much higher than anything I’ve heard floated out there by any analyst debating this topic. I’m talking Miami would have to drop all three first round picks this year, both first round picks next year, and multiple second round picks (probably one this year and one next year.. And even then I’d still be queasy about it!! So really, it just becomes a matter of just take your guy.
The Pick: Joe Burrow, QB LSU
2. Washington
The Tagovailoa injury and the presence of a rare edge talent have let Washington off the hook from the pressure of whether they should take another quarterback. I don’t condone taking rating star caliber QB prospects behind other positions, but Young is rated as the top prospect in the class in some circles and is often described as a more athletic version of the Bosa brothers.
The Pick: Chase Young, DE Ohio State
3. Detroit
Okudah is the consensus here, but I’m not convinced. The Lions will draw positional value ire from the masses for picking Simmons this high, but I’m projecting they’ll see his versatility as the missing link to their defense, and I’m not so sure that I disagree with them.
The Pick: Isaiah Simmons, Defense Clemson
4. N.Y. Giants- TRADE – L.A. Chargers
The smoke surrounding Tagovailoa is out of control. Call in all fire departments from neighboring counties! Nobody can see! Nobody can breathe! This thing is out of control. As a steadfast QB value guy, even I’m starting to waiver into thinking that the league might actually let Tagovailoa slide down the draft board. Logic wins in the end. High end quarterback talent is worth the risk. The Chargers are afraid Miami has been playing dead all along and decides to make a move to secure the star they need going into a new stadium in the L.A. market.
The Pick: Tua Tagovailoa, QB Alabama
5. Miami
It turns out Miami was smoke screening for a different quarterback the whole time. His tape isn’t as scary as devious, scheming general managers would have you believe.
The Pick: Jordan Love, QB Utah State
6. L.A. Chargers – Traded to N.Y. Giants – TRADE – Jacksonville
Everyone pokes fun at Dave Gettleman for never trading down. Now he’s going to do it twice in a row just to spite everyone. The Jaguars have hit the reset button on defense and an analytics driven front office will likely value the opportunity to rebuild everything around the top corner. I think Okudah is great, but not quite the sure-fire top three pick that he is being made out to be. His movement skills are special. His ability to mirror receivers in man coverage is great, but not elite.
The Pick: Jeff Okudah, CB Ohio State
7. Carolina – TRADE- Las Vegas
I can’t let these WR’s fall any farther. Let’s make a trade! Can’t you just hear Mike Mayock waxing poetic breaking down a CeeDee Lamb pick in an alternate universe where he still works for the NFL network? Lamb will look good in a Raiders uniform and Gruden has the elite weapon he’s been looking for.
The Pick: CeeDee Lamb, WR Oklahoma
8. Arizona – TRADE – San Francisco
Not to be outdone, the 49ers trade right up on the heels of their former bay area rival. Kyle Shanahan will bludgeon defenses running the ball and Jeudy and Deebo Samuel will carve whatever’s left to pieces. Check mate.
The Pick: Jerry Jeudy, WR Alabama
9. Jacksonville – Traded to N.Y. Giants
Gettleman, you sly dog. The Giants patiently move down and snag the best OT available.
The Pick: Andrew Thomas, OT Georgia
10. Cleveland
Cleveland opts for the monster from Louisville to plug in at LT. It might be a bit of a reach, but at least they are filling their biggest need, and if you are going to fill a hole you might as well fill it with 370 lbs. to make sure it is full.
The Pick: Mekhi Becton, OT Louisville
11. N.Y. Jets
OT’s fall to the Jets and they go receiver anyway to grab some sorely needed deep speed and high end WR potential. Can Ruggs anchor a receiving corps? I don’t think that’s his optimum role, but I’m excited to find out if he can do it.
The Pick: Henry Ruggs, WR Alabama
12. Las Vegas – Traded to Carolina
Carolina moves down and still gets the best defender available from when they were originally on the clock. Brown is a beast. He can flash quickness and penetration skills, but his main weapon is his bull strength that double teams sometimes struggle to contend with. My favorite play of anything I watched this year was a pass play in the Auburn vs. LSU game. Off the snap, Brown fired off the line and drove the guard back so violently that even Burrow couldn’t side step in time, and Brown legitimately got a sack without even touching the quarterback.
The Pick: Derrick Brown, DT Auburn
13. San Francisco (from Indianapolis) – Traded to Arizona
One of the elite receivers would have been a tantalizing addition to an already interesting offense, but the Cardinals do the sensible thing moving back and investing in a quality RT prospect.
The Pick: Jedrick Wills Jr., OT Alabama
14. Tampa Bay
In case you hadn’t heard , the Buccaneers just signed a 42 year old quarterback. Tampa Tom needs some blockers. I still think WIrfs will struggle out of the gate, but he at least gives them options.
The Pick: Tristan Wirfs, OT Iowa
15. Denver – TRADE – Dallas
The Cowboys trade up to snag their replacement for Byron Jones. Henderson isn’t the most physical corner in the world, but some say his man coverage skills might be better than Okudah’s. I think that’s a bit of an overstatement, but Henderson should allow the other pieces of their secondary to fit into more natural roles.
The Pick: C.J. Henderson, CB Florida
16. Atlanta
There has been talk of Atlanta trading up, but in this case they stay put and snag pretty good value. Kinlaw didn’t show as much power as Brown in the 2019 games that I watched but he looked strong enough for sure and had more speed.
The Pick: Javon Kinlaw South Carolina
17. Dallas – Traded to Denver – TRADE – New England
Bill Bellichick is looming in all of this “The sky is falling, the sky is falling, Tua’s gonna fall!!” discussion that has been rampant the last few days. If he starts to slide, how high up would New England go to get him? The outrage from non-Patriots fans if Bellichick pulls it off would be intolerable and that’s coming from someone that would be almost as equally as annoyed. It feels like a situation where everyone overreacts and then four years from now as Tagovailoa, the Trojan horse that brought down the Patriots dynasty, is retiring due to injury we all look back sheepishly at how mad we were. Regardless of the risk, I’d still take Tagovailoa in the top five picks, and that’s what I’m predicting. In this scenario, the Patriots are trading up for Herbert and we will all delight at his failure or be tortured by his success, and it doesn’t feel like there is any potential middle ground.
The Pick: Justin Herbert, QB Oregon
18. Miami (From Pittsburgh)
The dolphins snagged a QB at the top. Being too early to invest in the next wave of OT’s, they turn to defense. I have Yetur Gross-Matos as the next best edge player. Some will laud Chaisson in this slot, but Gross-Matos is just a bigger, stronger player with speed and quickness that are at least equivalent Chaisson.
The Pick: Yetur Gross-Matos, DE Penn State
19. Las Vegas (from Chicago) – Traded to Carolina
The Raiders moved up early to get an elite receiving weapon and Carolina slid their second round pick into the 19th slot with a pick swap. The Panthers continue to solidify the middle of their defense with a middle linebacker that has the size and instincts to excel in run support, the speed to drop into coverage , and near unanimous approval of his character.
The Pick: Kenneth Murray, LB Oklahoma
20. Jacksonville (from L.A. Rams)
The jaguars continue to rebuild the secondary with a safety that is an effective blitzer that thumps ball carriers, but can also play centerfield and cover tight ends.
The Pick: Xavier McKinney, S Alabama
21. Philadelphia
The Eagles need receivers so bad that even non-Eagles fans want them to pick WR’s. I won’t disappoint here. Denzel Mims has athleticism to spare, but he’s not as raw of a receiving talent as you might think. The Eagles get a fine candidate to develop into a WR1.
The Pick: Denzel Mims, WR Baylor
22. Minnesota (from Buffalo)
Linebacker isn’t super high on Minnesota’s needs list, but another athletic playmaker will be a good fit in a defense that is retooling a bit this offseason.
The Pick: Patrick Queen, LB LSU
23. New England – Traded to Denver
Denver moves back twice to pick up some extra assets. Now they fill a big need with a solid corner prospect.
The Pick: Jeff Gladney, CB TCU
24. New Orleans
With the two best LB prospects off the board, the Saints opt to add depth across from Marshon Lattimore. Fulton will struggle against elite receivers, but he should be a solid CB2.
The Pick: Kristian Fulton, CB LSU
25. Minnesota
It’s a run on LSU players as the Vikings seek to build back up their receiving corps. Jefferson might seem a little duplicative to Adam Thielen, but both guys should be effective playing inside and outside. In a way it will make them more versatile, and the relief to Kirk Cousins of replacing Stephon Diggs with a high character player that doesn’t need to be spoon fed touches should be palpable.
The Pick: Justin Jefferson, WR LSU
26. Miami (from Houston)
His dad was selected 23rd overall by the Bills. Antoine Winfield Jr. goes 26th overall to a different AFC east team. At 5’9”, Winfield gets caught in traffic at times coming up to play run defense, but overall he has good instincts and is adept at making plays in coverage.
The Pick: Antoine Winfield Jr., S Minnesota
27. Seattle
Whether they trade down like usual or stick in this slot to grab an edge defender, this feels like a good spot for Chaisson. I wanted to slide him down a little because I think he’s been a little overrated from what I’ve read and listened to, but more than likely he’ll be a first round pick. To me he’s undersized and not strong enough to hold up as a DE, but too big to be 4-3 linebacker. He’d be best as a 3-4 OLB, but I’m not sure who it is that is going to come get him.
The Pick: K’Lavon Chaisson, DE LSU
28. Baltimore
Baltimore might actually be the team keen on Chaisson if he falls this far. Alternatively, there’s been a lot of Patrick Queen talk in recent mock drafts. In this case, neither player fell to them and they will have to settle for a different LSU player. Grant Delpit was considered a top 15 player heading into the year and his stock has since fallen based on the perception that his play slipped a little from 2018 to 2019. I still see him as a high end safety prospect and Earl Thomas isn’t going to play forever. This would be classic Baltimore for a player like this to fall right into their laps.
The Pick: Grant Delpit, S LSU
29. Tennessee
The Titans feel like a team that is going to draft defensive line every year. There’s a cluster of DT’s worth going in this range, but I think Neville Gallimore gives them the best blend of size, strength and penetration.
The Pick: Neville Gallimore, DT Oklahoma
30. Green Bay
Aaron Rodgers might have a few years of prime left. It’s past time the Packers invested highly into offensive weapons. Jalen Reagor is the kind of explosive talent that would look outstanding across from Davante Adams. Reagor is a little shorter, but he gets down field in a hurry and has plenty of leaping ability to jump up and make plays. Maybe he should go a little higher, but seeing what Reagor can do with his talent with someone like Rodgers throwing to him is so intriguing that I refused to consider allowing anyone else to pick Reagor.
The Pick: Jalen Reagor, WR TCU
31. San Francisco
The 49ers managed to trade up five slots for Jeudy and hang on to pick 31. If they stay in this slot, I like them to go after IOL. In this case they have the pick of the litter and they go with Cesar Ruiz. I’ve seen others that are a lot higher on Ruiz and think he’s the clear number 1 center/guard prospect. I think it’s a little more muddled. He’s strong, but not overpowering. He runs past blocks a little more than I would like. His quickness is his biggest strength. I’d move him to guard where he can dig in a little harder and maximize his power and pull more effectively to utilize his speed.
The Pick: Cesar Ruiz, C Michigan
32. Kansas City – TRADE – N.Y. Jets
The Jets opted for WR earlier and now they move back in for O-line depth. Ezra Cleveland is a guy that has drawn a lot of late buzz as the fifth OT. I think he’ll eventually move to guard, but either way, he should help the Jets.
The Pick: Ezra Cleveland, OT Boise State
Monday, April 20, 2020
Bow Down to the 2020 WR Draft Class - NFL Draft Primer
Here it is. The crown jewel of the 2020 draft class. There has been no shortage of media hype for this year’s WR group. It’s the best class since… 2014? 2011? The vague hyperbole is everywhere. I couldn’t stand it. I had to dig deeper. I looked at all receivers drafted since 2011, and made a list of the top ten WR’s taken in every class plus any notable names taken outside the top ten. Then I rated the players from 0-5 based on my current opinion each guy.
Here’s how I broke down the rating scale:
5 - Blue chip players that you can build around an offense around.
4 - All-pro caliber players
3 - Pro Bowl caliber players
2 -Significant contributors in the league with fringe all-star status.
1 -Solid contributor in the league
0 -Never panned out
A few quick disclaimers:
- I acknowledge there’s not a level playing field here. The younger classes will tend to be rated higher because projections tend to skew positively.
-I’ve hedged my bets on some of the ratings. If I was on the fence about two players, I rounded up for one player and rounded down for the other to split the difference. For instance, I think players from last year, Miles Boykin and Hakeem Butler, both project as borderline 1’s so I split the difference and counted one as a 1 and one as a 0.
Let’s dig in!
2019:
Good early returns. We’ll see if all of the threes and fours can back up strong first years. The Renfro, Campbell, Isabella, Butler, Boykin, Johnson group only netted a total of two points for now, but there’s potential for higher scores there in the future. Deep class but light on elite talent.
Marquise Brown – 3
N’Keal Harry
Deebo Samuel – 4
A.J. Brown – 3
Mecole Hardman – 1
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside
Paris Campbell
Andy Isabella
D.K. Metcalf – 3
Diantae Johnson – 1
Terry McLaurin – 4
Miles Boykin
Hakeen Butler – 1
Hunter Renfro
Darius Slayton – 2
TOTAL SCORE: 22
2018:
Kind of an average crop. Decent top three, but no depth.
D.J. Moore – 3
Calvin Ridley -2
Courtland Sutton – 4
Dante Pettis
Christian Kirk
Anthony Miller - 1
James Washington
D.J. Chark – 3
Michael Gallup – 1
Trequan Smith
Keke Coutee
Antonio Calloway
DaeSean Hamilton
Marques Valdez-Scantling – 1
Total: 15
2017:
A lot of heavy investment in the top 10 without much return. Teams that waited had much better luck.
Corey Davis – 1
Mike Williams -1
John Ross
Zay Jones
Curtis Samuel – 1
JuJu Smith-Schuster -3
Cooper Kupp – 3
Taywan Taylor
ArDarius Stewart
Carlos Henderson
Chris Godwin – 4
Kenny Golladay – 3
Dede Westbrook -1
Total: 17
2016:
Total whiffs in round 1. Really solid round 2. Some serviceable players later… and Tyreek Hill.
Corey Coleman
Will Fuller – 2
Josh Doctson
Laquon Treadwell
Sterling Shepard – 1
Michael Thomas – 5
Tyler Boyd – 2
Braxton Miller
Leonte Caroo
Chris Moore
Malcolm Mitchell
Demarcus Robinson – 1
Tajae Sharpe
Tyreek Hill – 5
Rashard Higgins
Jakeem Grant – 1
Total: 17
2015:
Abysmal after Cooper at the top with Lockett and Diggs (5th rounder!!) later salvaging this from being a total disaster. Although Parker and Perriman are finally perking up. We’ll see if they can keep trending up and really bolster this class.
Amari Cooper – 3
Kevin White
Devante Parker – 1
Nelson Agholor
Breshad Perriman – 1
Phillip Dorsett
Devin Smith
Dorial Green-Beckham
Devin Funchess
Tyler Lockett – 3
Chris Conley – 1
Ty Montgomery – 1
Jamison Crowder – 1
Stefon Diggs – 3
Total: 14
2014:
The current consensus gold standard for WR classes. Turns out the hype looks justified. It boasts one of the strongest day 1 groups along with a day 2/day 3 group that could go toe to toe with the day 1 guys. Benjamin being rated as a 1 is stretching a little but I thought the cluster of Benjamin, Richardson, and Lee have done enough collectively to justify at least one 1 rating. Beckham as a 4 might raise some eyebrows, but just know that I originally had him as a three and actually bumped him up. Look, the talent is immense, but I docked him because he’s struggled to stay healthy and it is always something with him off the field. His teammates can swear he’s not a distraction but from the kicking net love saga, to criticizing Eli Manning, to boat trips in off weeks, to off season photos with shady women and questionable substances, to whining about getting fined for wearing his Rolex (or whatever that was) during a game , to single handedlyscuttling my fantasy football team.. twice!.. in two different years!! That’s it, I’m out! You are getting rated 4 out of 5 stars by me Odell Beckham! Take that.
Sammy Watkins – 2
Mike Evans – 4
Odell Beckham – 4
Brandin Cooks – 2
Kelvin Benjamin -1
Marquis Lee
Jordan Matthews
Paul Richardson
Davante Adams – 4
Cody Latimore
Allen Robinson – 3
Jarvis Landry – 3
John Brown – 2
Martavis Bryant – 1
Quincy Enunwa – 1
Total: 27
2013:
Ooph. We have a new low score. Hopkins and Allen salvage an otherwise brutal bunch.
Tavon Austin -1
DeAndre Hopkins – 5
Cordarrelle Patterson – 1
Justin Hunter
Robert Woods - 2
Aaron Dobson
Terrance Williams
Keenan Allen – 3
Marquise Goodwin
Markus Wheaton
Kenny Stills – 1
Total: 13
2012:
Substance abuse / legal problems derailed the top of this class and the hits were few and far between after that. We have a new low water mark point total.
Justin Blackman
Michael Floyd
Kendall Wright – 1
A.J. Jenkins.
Brian Quick
Stephen Hill
Alshon Jeffrey – 3
Ryan Broyles
Reuben Randle
DeVier Posey
Mohamed Sanu - 1
T.Y. Hilton -3
Travis Benjamin – 1
Marvin Jones – 2
Total: 11
2011:
In my head, this was going to be one of the heavyweights, but it turns out it had two big boys up top and then not much else. Yes, Green has had injury problems comparable or worse to what I docked Beckham for, but there’s no way I’m backing off rating him as a 5. Green has been the foundation of the Cincy offense for most of the decade. There have been some downs to go with the ups, but he has taken it all in stride. Can you imagine Beckham playing his whole career with Andy Dalton and continuing to defend him? How do you think he would have handled last year’s strange injury standoff? How about getting franchised? He would have detonated the locker room and that’s why he gets bumped down a notch.
A.J. Green – 5
Julio Jones – 5
Jonathan Baldwin
Titus Young
Torrey Smith – 1
Greg Little
Randall Cobb – 2
Austin Pettis
Leonard Hankerson
Vincent Brown
Cecil Shorts – 1
Jeremy Kerley – 1
TOTAL: 15
Alright, now for the moment we’ve all been waiting. How does 2020 stack up against the rest?
1. CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma - 5
When Coming up with comparisons for this year’s WR class, part of the reason I kept thinking of 2011 was the two sure fire studs at the top. A lot of people have thrown out DeAndre Hopkins comparisons, but Lamb's perfect blend of power to outmuscle defernders, speed to break free deep, and quickness and creativity to turn nothing into something at any moment lands him closer to Julio Jones for me. They’re not the same body type, Lamb is about 30 lbs. lighter, but he plays similar. It’s not fair to compare college prospects to players THAT good, but Lamb can handle it.
In the National semi final, everyone on Oklahoma’s team, from players up through coaches, looked out of place going up against LSU’s level of talent… except Lamb. He belonged.
Endless mock drafts have delighted fans of WR needy teams with Lamb and Jeudy falling into their laps in the 10 to 15 range. I’m not buying it. These guys are too good. The narrative is that teams in the top 10 are better served grabbing players at more shallow positions and then taking a receiver later. These two guys are blue chip offensive weapons that can carry offensive units. I don’t’ think you pass on players like that. Scroll back though the last 9 WR classes. There were only four 5 rating players, only two of which would have been rated that high going into the draft without the benefit of hind sight. They are top five talents in this class. Maybe they slip a few slots if three or four quarterbacks go early, but it’s a crime if they fall lower than 8.
2. Jerry Jeudy , Alabama - 5
The A.J. Green to CeeDee Lamb’s Julio Jones?.. Sort of. Like Green, Jeudy is a lean smooth as silk rout running technician with some deep speed. Shorter in stature though, Jeudy doesn’t have quite the contested catch chops that Green’s body allows, and his hands aren’t as good. On the other hand, if Green’s rout running is A+ caliber, then Jeudy’s rout running is A++. It’s a thing of beauty watching him dissect DB’s and it’s not even the most exciting thing about watching him play. Jeudy is absolutely breathtaking in the open field. He makes cuts like nothing I’ve ever seen before. Sometimes he’s a little too much in love with himself and he takes too much time setting it up but then he makes a cut and it’s just devastating. It’s so fast you almost can’t even track it visually. It’s like he teleports and all of a sudden he’s three feet away from where he used to be going in a different direction. The one thing I can compare it to is when you scare a small fish in the ocean and they are swimming one way and then they dart the other way. It’s unbelievable. Jerry Jeudy falling to 12. Give me a break.
3. Henry Ruggs, Alabama - 3
A speed receiver with hands. Sometimes it feels like that is an oxymoron, but Ruggs fits the bill as a 4.28 40 speed guy that makes circus stunt catches to go along with securing the ball reliably on routine passes. He has the skills to be great, but can he be a number 1 receiver for an offense? At Alabama he was more of a role player with moderate production. Is that because he doesn’t have the temperament for it or because he was playing alongside Jeudy along with DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle (two players likely to also draw first round consideration in future years)? Perhaps there were just too many mouths to feed and he should be commended for fulfilling his role dutifully. I think of him more as a 1A receiver. He can be one of the main weapons in an offense, but not THE main weapon. That’s not the end of the world. He’s still a top 15 prospect in this class.
4. Denzel Mims, Baylor - 3
Slotting Mims in the four spot, I might be accused of overreacting to his combine numbers. If anything I think the combine numbers just snapped me out of some kind of negative bias I had towards Baylor receivers that have come into the league in recent years struggling to succeed because of a lack of polish and a limited rout tree. The truth is, Mims had me holding my breathe a few snaps into watching him. He has this fluidity blended with an intensely raw athletic energy similar to the way early Chad Johnson looked. Except he’s bigger than Johnson (6’3”, 206 lbs.) and faster. Not only did he run a 4.38 40, but he had the fastest 3-cone time at (brace yourselves Bible thumpers) 6.66 s. The athleticism was evident watching him play and the combine numbers confirm it.
But if it were athleticism alone, he probably wouldn’t be ranked this high. He has receiving skills to match. He’s not as fundamentally sound as some of the elite prospects, but he runs solid routs and makes great high concentration catches all over the field. He has to develop some, but he’s worth the risk in the second half of the first round.
5. Tee Higgins, Clemson – 2
Higgins is flying under the radar a little. He is typically ranked several spots lower than this, but he can go pound for pound with anyone not named Lamb or Jeudy in this class. He’s kind of a poor man’s version of Lamb. At 6’4” with a gigantic wing span and high end ball skills, he makes for a substantial target. His rout running isn’t elite, but he’s no slouch either. Not having logged any athletic testing prior to the plague shutting down the world, speed is his main question mark. He’s a bit of a long strider so it’s hard to tell watching his games if he takes time to get to top speed or if it just looks like it because he’s really tall. I’m not too worried about it. There’s plenty of evidence of him applying pressure to defenses and making big plays on short passes, deep passes and even end arounds. Whatever the numbers are, they are good enough to generate explosive plays.
6. Jalen Reagor, TCU - 2
Reagor is a spark plug receiver that jets downfield in a hurry and has return skills. He played through below average quarterback play and still managed to log an impressive catalog of explosive plays throughout the year. At 5’11” he’s not going to win a lot of jump balls.. then again he should be just fine using his 42” vertical to outjump defenders. His 40 time at the combine was decent, but he looks faster in games than he ran at the combine. I worried a little bit about his desire when I was watching him, but several reports I’ve read indicate he has a dynamic personality determined to make an imprint on the league. It would be fun to see him fall to someone like Green Bay to see what kind of damage he could inflict opposite a true WR1 with an elite QB.
7. Justin Jefferson, LSU – 2
Jefferson got upstaged last season by his underclassman running mate at LSU, but when the dust settled from LSU’s explosive national championship run people started to wake up to the fact that Jefferson may not be a WR1, but he’s still pretty darn good.
He had a lot of production out of the slot and reminds me of a less rocked up version of A.J. Brown. Not highly recruited going into college, Jefferson worked his way into a starring role on the best team in the country and the status of being a top 50 NFL draft prospect. He’ll be a fine addition to whatever WR corps he joins. Just don’t ask him to be your backup plan for not taking Jeudy in the first round. He can’t fill that role.
8. Brandon Aiyuk, Arizona State -1
Aiyuk is a dynamic run after catch weapon with return skills. He runs fluid routs, but disappears for stretches of games. Suspecting Arizona State’s quarterback was a bigger part of the problem than Aiyuk himself, I will eagerly be waiting to find out his landing spot and to see how his career evolves.
9. Laviska Shenault, Colorado – 1
Shenault was used as a multi purpose player at Colorado doing everything from playing outside receiver to running between the tackles. He can do a little bit of everything and he does it all well. He’s elusive. He can run with power. He can break returns for touchdowns. He’s battled injuries throughout his career including at the combine where he ran a so-so time and then pulled up lame and couldn’t complete the workout. If this cluster of prospects is on a team called the "we-think-you-might-actually-be-great-but-we’re-not-sure-because-your-college-offense-stinks all stars,” then Shenault is the team captain. With the right fit, he is one of the prime candidates to outplay his draft position.
10. Donovan Peoples Jones, Michigan -1
Peoples Jones is an athletic freak that never lived up to the hype. Still, he showed enough to make you think he’s another player that can exceed expectations in the pro ranks. I lean towards the notion that if he were really great he could have shined through the Shea Patterson rain clouds in his life, but he can still be a high end number 2 receiver with a long shot at being a WR1.
11. K.J. Hamler, Penn State – 1
At 5’9” 175 lbs., Hamler is a mighty mite slot receiver with loads of speed to terrorize defenses deep down the field or laterally on shorter patterns. He has good hands, but struggles with his small frame making plays in contested catch situations.
12. Bryan Edwards, South Carolina – 1
Edwards is a big bodied possession receiver dominant enough to headline a college offense. What does that translate to in the pros? As long as he’s not asked to do too much I think he’ll be able to utilize his elite tracking and ball skills to make for an effective WR3 and a potent red zone target.
13. Van Jefferson, Florida – 1
Smooth rout runner adept at getting open on short to intermediate routs, especially in the red zone. He could have handled a larger role at Florida and has potential to develop into a high end WR2.
14. Michael Pittman, USC – 1
Not the strongest or the fastest, Pittman is a solid all around player that catches everything thrown his way. He finds ways to get open and when he doesn’t, he out fights defenders for the ball. He’s not flashy but he gets the job done.
.
15. Quartney Davis, Texas A&M
.
Here’s how I broke down the rating scale:
5 - Blue chip players that you can build around an offense around.
4 - All-pro caliber players
3 - Pro Bowl caliber players
2 -Significant contributors in the league with fringe all-star status.
1 -Solid contributor in the league
0 -Never panned out
A few quick disclaimers:
- I acknowledge there’s not a level playing field here. The younger classes will tend to be rated higher because projections tend to skew positively.
-I’ve hedged my bets on some of the ratings. If I was on the fence about two players, I rounded up for one player and rounded down for the other to split the difference. For instance, I think players from last year, Miles Boykin and Hakeem Butler, both project as borderline 1’s so I split the difference and counted one as a 1 and one as a 0.
Let’s dig in!
2019:
Good early returns. We’ll see if all of the threes and fours can back up strong first years. The Renfro, Campbell, Isabella, Butler, Boykin, Johnson group only netted a total of two points for now, but there’s potential for higher scores there in the future. Deep class but light on elite talent.
Marquise Brown – 3
N’Keal Harry
Deebo Samuel – 4
A.J. Brown – 3
Mecole Hardman – 1
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside
Paris Campbell
Andy Isabella
D.K. Metcalf – 3
Diantae Johnson – 1
Terry McLaurin – 4
Miles Boykin
Hakeen Butler – 1
Hunter Renfro
Darius Slayton – 2
TOTAL SCORE: 22
2018:
Kind of an average crop. Decent top three, but no depth.
D.J. Moore – 3
Calvin Ridley -2
Courtland Sutton – 4
Dante Pettis
Christian Kirk
Anthony Miller - 1
James Washington
D.J. Chark – 3
Michael Gallup – 1
Trequan Smith
Keke Coutee
Antonio Calloway
DaeSean Hamilton
Marques Valdez-Scantling – 1
Total: 15
2017:
A lot of heavy investment in the top 10 without much return. Teams that waited had much better luck.
Corey Davis – 1
Mike Williams -1
John Ross
Zay Jones
Curtis Samuel – 1
JuJu Smith-Schuster -3
Cooper Kupp – 3
Taywan Taylor
ArDarius Stewart
Carlos Henderson
Chris Godwin – 4
Kenny Golladay – 3
Dede Westbrook -1
Total: 17
2016:
Total whiffs in round 1. Really solid round 2. Some serviceable players later… and Tyreek Hill.
Corey Coleman
Will Fuller – 2
Josh Doctson
Laquon Treadwell
Sterling Shepard – 1
Michael Thomas – 5
Tyler Boyd – 2
Braxton Miller
Leonte Caroo
Chris Moore
Malcolm Mitchell
Demarcus Robinson – 1
Tajae Sharpe
Tyreek Hill – 5
Rashard Higgins
Jakeem Grant – 1
Total: 17
2015:
Abysmal after Cooper at the top with Lockett and Diggs (5th rounder!!) later salvaging this from being a total disaster. Although Parker and Perriman are finally perking up. We’ll see if they can keep trending up and really bolster this class.
Amari Cooper – 3
Kevin White
Devante Parker – 1
Nelson Agholor
Breshad Perriman – 1
Phillip Dorsett
Devin Smith
Dorial Green-Beckham
Devin Funchess
Tyler Lockett – 3
Chris Conley – 1
Ty Montgomery – 1
Jamison Crowder – 1
Stefon Diggs – 3
Total: 14
2014:
The current consensus gold standard for WR classes. Turns out the hype looks justified. It boasts one of the strongest day 1 groups along with a day 2/day 3 group that could go toe to toe with the day 1 guys. Benjamin being rated as a 1 is stretching a little but I thought the cluster of Benjamin, Richardson, and Lee have done enough collectively to justify at least one 1 rating. Beckham as a 4 might raise some eyebrows, but just know that I originally had him as a three and actually bumped him up. Look, the talent is immense, but I docked him because he’s struggled to stay healthy and it is always something with him off the field. His teammates can swear he’s not a distraction but from the kicking net love saga, to criticizing Eli Manning, to boat trips in off weeks, to off season photos with shady women and questionable substances, to whining about getting fined for wearing his Rolex (or whatever that was) during a game , to single handedlyscuttling my fantasy football team.. twice!.. in two different years!! That’s it, I’m out! You are getting rated 4 out of 5 stars by me Odell Beckham! Take that.
Sammy Watkins – 2
Mike Evans – 4
Odell Beckham – 4
Brandin Cooks – 2
Kelvin Benjamin -1
Marquis Lee
Jordan Matthews
Paul Richardson
Davante Adams – 4
Cody Latimore
Allen Robinson – 3
Jarvis Landry – 3
John Brown – 2
Martavis Bryant – 1
Quincy Enunwa – 1
Total: 27
2013:
Ooph. We have a new low score. Hopkins and Allen salvage an otherwise brutal bunch.
Tavon Austin -1
DeAndre Hopkins – 5
Cordarrelle Patterson – 1
Justin Hunter
Robert Woods - 2
Aaron Dobson
Terrance Williams
Keenan Allen – 3
Marquise Goodwin
Markus Wheaton
Kenny Stills – 1
Total: 13
2012:
Substance abuse / legal problems derailed the top of this class and the hits were few and far between after that. We have a new low water mark point total.
Justin Blackman
Michael Floyd
Kendall Wright – 1
A.J. Jenkins.
Brian Quick
Stephen Hill
Alshon Jeffrey – 3
Ryan Broyles
Reuben Randle
DeVier Posey
Mohamed Sanu - 1
T.Y. Hilton -3
Travis Benjamin – 1
Marvin Jones – 2
Total: 11
2011:
In my head, this was going to be one of the heavyweights, but it turns out it had two big boys up top and then not much else. Yes, Green has had injury problems comparable or worse to what I docked Beckham for, but there’s no way I’m backing off rating him as a 5. Green has been the foundation of the Cincy offense for most of the decade. There have been some downs to go with the ups, but he has taken it all in stride. Can you imagine Beckham playing his whole career with Andy Dalton and continuing to defend him? How do you think he would have handled last year’s strange injury standoff? How about getting franchised? He would have detonated the locker room and that’s why he gets bumped down a notch.
A.J. Green – 5
Julio Jones – 5
Jonathan Baldwin
Titus Young
Torrey Smith – 1
Greg Little
Randall Cobb – 2
Austin Pettis
Leonard Hankerson
Vincent Brown
Cecil Shorts – 1
Jeremy Kerley – 1
TOTAL: 15
Alright, now for the moment we’ve all been waiting. How does 2020 stack up against the rest?
1. CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma - 5
When Coming up with comparisons for this year’s WR class, part of the reason I kept thinking of 2011 was the two sure fire studs at the top. A lot of people have thrown out DeAndre Hopkins comparisons, but Lamb's perfect blend of power to outmuscle defernders, speed to break free deep, and quickness and creativity to turn nothing into something at any moment lands him closer to Julio Jones for me. They’re not the same body type, Lamb is about 30 lbs. lighter, but he plays similar. It’s not fair to compare college prospects to players THAT good, but Lamb can handle it.
In the National semi final, everyone on Oklahoma’s team, from players up through coaches, looked out of place going up against LSU’s level of talent… except Lamb. He belonged.
Endless mock drafts have delighted fans of WR needy teams with Lamb and Jeudy falling into their laps in the 10 to 15 range. I’m not buying it. These guys are too good. The narrative is that teams in the top 10 are better served grabbing players at more shallow positions and then taking a receiver later. These two guys are blue chip offensive weapons that can carry offensive units. I don’t’ think you pass on players like that. Scroll back though the last 9 WR classes. There were only four 5 rating players, only two of which would have been rated that high going into the draft without the benefit of hind sight. They are top five talents in this class. Maybe they slip a few slots if three or four quarterbacks go early, but it’s a crime if they fall lower than 8.
2. Jerry Jeudy , Alabama - 5
The A.J. Green to CeeDee Lamb’s Julio Jones?.. Sort of. Like Green, Jeudy is a lean smooth as silk rout running technician with some deep speed. Shorter in stature though, Jeudy doesn’t have quite the contested catch chops that Green’s body allows, and his hands aren’t as good. On the other hand, if Green’s rout running is A+ caliber, then Jeudy’s rout running is A++. It’s a thing of beauty watching him dissect DB’s and it’s not even the most exciting thing about watching him play. Jeudy is absolutely breathtaking in the open field. He makes cuts like nothing I’ve ever seen before. Sometimes he’s a little too much in love with himself and he takes too much time setting it up but then he makes a cut and it’s just devastating. It’s so fast you almost can’t even track it visually. It’s like he teleports and all of a sudden he’s three feet away from where he used to be going in a different direction. The one thing I can compare it to is when you scare a small fish in the ocean and they are swimming one way and then they dart the other way. It’s unbelievable. Jerry Jeudy falling to 12. Give me a break.
3. Henry Ruggs, Alabama - 3
A speed receiver with hands. Sometimes it feels like that is an oxymoron, but Ruggs fits the bill as a 4.28 40 speed guy that makes circus stunt catches to go along with securing the ball reliably on routine passes. He has the skills to be great, but can he be a number 1 receiver for an offense? At Alabama he was more of a role player with moderate production. Is that because he doesn’t have the temperament for it or because he was playing alongside Jeudy along with DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle (two players likely to also draw first round consideration in future years)? Perhaps there were just too many mouths to feed and he should be commended for fulfilling his role dutifully. I think of him more as a 1A receiver. He can be one of the main weapons in an offense, but not THE main weapon. That’s not the end of the world. He’s still a top 15 prospect in this class.
4. Denzel Mims, Baylor - 3
Slotting Mims in the four spot, I might be accused of overreacting to his combine numbers. If anything I think the combine numbers just snapped me out of some kind of negative bias I had towards Baylor receivers that have come into the league in recent years struggling to succeed because of a lack of polish and a limited rout tree. The truth is, Mims had me holding my breathe a few snaps into watching him. He has this fluidity blended with an intensely raw athletic energy similar to the way early Chad Johnson looked. Except he’s bigger than Johnson (6’3”, 206 lbs.) and faster. Not only did he run a 4.38 40, but he had the fastest 3-cone time at (brace yourselves Bible thumpers) 6.66 s. The athleticism was evident watching him play and the combine numbers confirm it.
But if it were athleticism alone, he probably wouldn’t be ranked this high. He has receiving skills to match. He’s not as fundamentally sound as some of the elite prospects, but he runs solid routs and makes great high concentration catches all over the field. He has to develop some, but he’s worth the risk in the second half of the first round.
5. Tee Higgins, Clemson – 2
Higgins is flying under the radar a little. He is typically ranked several spots lower than this, but he can go pound for pound with anyone not named Lamb or Jeudy in this class. He’s kind of a poor man’s version of Lamb. At 6’4” with a gigantic wing span and high end ball skills, he makes for a substantial target. His rout running isn’t elite, but he’s no slouch either. Not having logged any athletic testing prior to the plague shutting down the world, speed is his main question mark. He’s a bit of a long strider so it’s hard to tell watching his games if he takes time to get to top speed or if it just looks like it because he’s really tall. I’m not too worried about it. There’s plenty of evidence of him applying pressure to defenses and making big plays on short passes, deep passes and even end arounds. Whatever the numbers are, they are good enough to generate explosive plays.
Reagor is a spark plug receiver that jets downfield in a hurry and has return skills. He played through below average quarterback play and still managed to log an impressive catalog of explosive plays throughout the year. At 5’11” he’s not going to win a lot of jump balls.. then again he should be just fine using his 42” vertical to outjump defenders. His 40 time at the combine was decent, but he looks faster in games than he ran at the combine. I worried a little bit about his desire when I was watching him, but several reports I’ve read indicate he has a dynamic personality determined to make an imprint on the league. It would be fun to see him fall to someone like Green Bay to see what kind of damage he could inflict opposite a true WR1 with an elite QB.
7. Justin Jefferson, LSU – 2
Jefferson got upstaged last season by his underclassman running mate at LSU, but when the dust settled from LSU’s explosive national championship run people started to wake up to the fact that Jefferson may not be a WR1, but he’s still pretty darn good.
He had a lot of production out of the slot and reminds me of a less rocked up version of A.J. Brown. Not highly recruited going into college, Jefferson worked his way into a starring role on the best team in the country and the status of being a top 50 NFL draft prospect. He’ll be a fine addition to whatever WR corps he joins. Just don’t ask him to be your backup plan for not taking Jeudy in the first round. He can’t fill that role.
8. Brandon Aiyuk, Arizona State -1
Aiyuk is a dynamic run after catch weapon with return skills. He runs fluid routs, but disappears for stretches of games. Suspecting Arizona State’s quarterback was a bigger part of the problem than Aiyuk himself, I will eagerly be waiting to find out his landing spot and to see how his career evolves.
9. Laviska Shenault, Colorado – 1
Shenault was used as a multi purpose player at Colorado doing everything from playing outside receiver to running between the tackles. He can do a little bit of everything and he does it all well. He’s elusive. He can run with power. He can break returns for touchdowns. He’s battled injuries throughout his career including at the combine where he ran a so-so time and then pulled up lame and couldn’t complete the workout. If this cluster of prospects is on a team called the "we-think-you-might-actually-be-great-but-we’re-not-sure-because-your-college-offense-stinks all stars,” then Shenault is the team captain. With the right fit, he is one of the prime candidates to outplay his draft position.
10. Donovan Peoples Jones, Michigan -1
Peoples Jones is an athletic freak that never lived up to the hype. Still, he showed enough to make you think he’s another player that can exceed expectations in the pro ranks. I lean towards the notion that if he were really great he could have shined through the Shea Patterson rain clouds in his life, but he can still be a high end number 2 receiver with a long shot at being a WR1.
11. K.J. Hamler, Penn State – 1
At 5’9” 175 lbs., Hamler is a mighty mite slot receiver with loads of speed to terrorize defenses deep down the field or laterally on shorter patterns. He has good hands, but struggles with his small frame making plays in contested catch situations.
12. Bryan Edwards, South Carolina – 1
Edwards is a big bodied possession receiver dominant enough to headline a college offense. What does that translate to in the pros? As long as he’s not asked to do too much I think he’ll be able to utilize his elite tracking and ball skills to make for an effective WR3 and a potent red zone target.
13. Van Jefferson, Florida – 1
Smooth rout runner adept at getting open on short to intermediate routs, especially in the red zone. He could have handled a larger role at Florida and has potential to develop into a high end WR2.
14. Michael Pittman, USC – 1
Not the strongest or the fastest, Pittman is a solid all around player that catches everything thrown his way. He finds ways to get open and when he doesn’t, he out fights defenders for the ball. He’s not flashy but he gets the job done.
.
15. Quartney Davis, Texas A&M
.
Another solid technician that wows with his fluidity. He was featured quite a bit in the games I watched (jet sweeps, bubble screens..get that guy the ball!!), but he didn't quite have the juice to capitalize on it. When he gets in the open field, he can be dangerous. He just needs a little help getting there.
16. Quintez Cephus, Wisconsin
Big strong receiver that ran slow at the combine. He ran better at his pro day for whatever that's worth, but he doesn't exactly look blazing fast watching him play. As possession receivers go, he's not quite as technical as someone like Pittman, but he has a little more swagger. Not a bad investent in day three.
And the Grand Total Is...
29!!!
Honestly, I haven't watched many more prospects than this, but there's a dozen more names I could run through here. I'm sure there will be one or two hidden gems that I haven't even given the time of day in this exercise, but then again everyone I've discussed surely won't pan out so hopefully it all comes out in the wash.
Tallying up all of the ratings, it turns out this class edges out 2014 by a hair. This isn't just the best WR class since 2014, it's the best WR class EVER!!! ... Or is it? Let's dig into all of the wide receiver draft classes since 1980 to find out... just kidding. I'm done for now. Three more days until the draft! Can't wait!
Friday, April 17, 2020
OT on OT's - 2020 NFL Draft Primer: Offensive Tackles
Similar to quarterback, there are four first round OT prospects followed by a big drop off. There's more developmental potential for the players in the lower tiers than with the QB’s, but there isn’t anyone I’d say is capable of starting early in their careers. That said, players like Bobby Heart, George Fant, and Greg Robinson all logged significant playing time last year. An OT starved league will surely gobble up a lot of these guys on day 2 to bolster depth or just to have fresh meat to throw to the wolves. One or two of the lower tier guys might even sneak into day one.
1. Andrew Thomas, Georgia
Thomas was ranked as OT1 and a top ten pick early in the college season. As 2019 unfolded, a lot of analysts have picked him apart and dropped him a few slots. He’s still the top OT in my book. There’s no Joe Thomas/Jonathan Ogden-earmarked-for-the –hall-of-fame type prospects in this class. Absent of a perennial all-pro, if I’m desperate for an OT in the top ten of the draft I’m going to value stability more than upside. Thomas’s ceiling is lower than Tristan Wirfs or Mekhi Becton, but not THAT much lower and he has a higher floor (especially in year 1).
Thomas is the best all around lineman. He has size, power, and his blocks are just stickier and more sudden than others in the class. His quickness and agility are just average. If he’s going to get beat it’s with speed around the edge. I wouldn’t fault tackle needy teams for reaching for him a little in the 3-6 ruange, but his best value is between picks 8 and 10.
2. Jedrick Wills, Alabama
Wills played RT the last two years at Alabama. He’s solid all around. He’s not as strong as Thomas run blocking, but he moves a little better. Can he play on the left side? Probably, but it’s a little bit of an unknown. Overall he’s OT2, but he’s right on Thomas’s heels.
3. Tristan Wirfs, Iowa
I have to go back and watch Wirfs again because I keep hearing how powerful he is and how well he anchors, but when I watched him I thought those were his weaknesses. His movement skills are electric. He’s as agile as anyone I can remember and if you look at his combine numbers you might think I’m underselling his athletic ability. They should make a stat where they count how many times a player blocks multiple defenders on one play and call them Wirfs’. The ball snaps, he engages with the player in front of him or helps inside and then as soon as somebody tries to loop around the edge from inside or a late blitzer comes screaming in, Wirfs slides right out to deal with it. “Hey, did you see that right tackle from Iowa last night? He had 3.5 Wirfs’ in the game.”
The parts that give me pause are when he struggles to get push run blocking against players that aren’t 100 lbs. lighter than him or when somebody with a little meat on their bones comes at him a bull rush and he just barely holds them off. What is he going to do with NFL rushers with a little more pop than the DE’s at Michigan (one of the few games I found where he was playing against any halfway competent edge players)?
When really good OT’s drive off the line there’s this moment where they lock onto the defender and then just push forward like a truck with a giant magnet on the front that drives forward into a hunk of steel. When Wirfs engages it looks more like a magnet being pushed up against the same pole of a different magnet. Think about the sticky blocks I talked about with Thomas. Thomas sticks (not like a super powered Orlando Pace magnet.. more like a regular magnet). Wirfs repels.
Wirfs doesn’t deserve to fall too far. Based on his movement skills alone his ceiling is up in the clouds, but if you’re looking to start him day 1 you might be a little disappointed for a couple of years as he adjusts to the level of competition and beefs up. He should go between picks 10 to 15.
4. Mekhi Becton, Louisville
The mountain that rides!.. or should I say the mountain that cut blocks (seriously, what was Louisville thinking? I get that you have your scheme that you want to run but maybe you could have come up with something better to do with your 370 lb. lineman than to routinely send him diving into the ground. Note, I can’t even say that he was diving at people’s knees because he missed 90% of the time and just ended up rolling around on the field).
Becton is giant with unnatural movement skills for his size. We’re not talking Wirfs-like Kung fu panda quickness or anything, but he can move well enough to capitalize on his superior size. I do lump him in with Wirfs though in terms of being a guy that will likely disappoint if asked to start from day 1. He relies a little too much on his physical traits:
- Using one-arm shoves to push away tiny defenders where stronger players with better hand technique are going to chew him up.
- Letting his girth do too much of the work on outside speed rushes where better athletes are going to be able to bend and get around him.
I question his blocking intelligence too where a lot of times he fires off the line, steps past a defender and then spins around looking for someone to block. Some of this might correct itself if he gets drafted into a better scheme fit, but where he chooses to move his body reacting to the natural chaos of a football play doesn’t feel quite fluid and natural enough to sign off on him as a sure thing.
All of this said, he is big. Citing the classic George Young “planet theory”, there are only so many guys THAT big that can move like THAT. He’s a first round pick based off potential. Teams picking in the top ten need him to excel right away and if he’s asked to do that I’m afraid his career will end up looking like one of those ill-fated cut blocks from his college tape. If he gets picked more in the 14 to 18 range he’ll still need to start early, but he might have a little more leeway to play through growing pains.
5. Lucas Niang, TCU
Solid right tackle that played through injury last year and eventually missed most of the year with a hip issue. The lack of medical rechecks this year might cause him to fall farther than he should. He’s not a mauler, but can move people in the run game. With the bum hip he looked a little succeptible to speed around the edge in 2019, but he got several reps against Chase Young in 2018 when he wasn’t hurt and looked pretty respectable. Niang could be a day three steal if he drops for health reasons.
6. Ezra Cleveland, Boise State
A bull. He gets good push run blocking. He’s adequate in pass protection, but he looks a little heavy footed and susceptible to counter moves. Are we sure he’s not a guard?
7. Saahdiq Charles, LSU
Charles is lower on most lists. He’s not perfect by any means, but all of the tools seem to be there. A lot of his mistakes appear to be mental concentration lapses more than anything. He needs to go to a team with a good O-line coach and he’ll surprise people.
8. Josh Jones, Houston
More of a lean prospect best for schemes that require smaller more agile lineman. He moves well but he has a few baby deer moments where he comes barreling down the line and his body gets out of sync and he trips or stumbles. Good developmental prospect mid day 2.
9. Isaiah Wilson, Georgia
Big, powerful right tackle that will struggle blocking athletic pass rush moves and hang around the league due to his run blocking.
10. Matthew Peart, UCONN
Similar to Niang without the injuries. Solid all-around. We’ll see how he adapts to higher competition.
11. Ben Bartch, St. John
Small school kid that impressed with his technique at the Senior Bowl. He’ll need time to adjust to the strength he’ll be facing in the pros.
12. Jack Driscol, Auburn
This OT class might be a little overrated in terms of top to bottom talent, but the list of prospects with mid-round caliber talent goes on and on. Solid. Good strength. Might struggle with ultra quick pass rushers. I feel like a broken record, but Driscoll fits the mold.
13. Austin Jackson, USC
Pretty average in terms of size and athletic ability. Looks good in a lot of games. Against A.J. Epenesa?.. Not so hot. Not quick enough. Not strong enough.
14. Prince Tega Wanogho, Auburn
Raw player that has only been playing football a few years. It's painful to watch him try to move around. When he runs upfield, he looks like a 75 year-old man. Maybe he’ll develop, but he is too awkward for me to have much faith.
All in all this is a decent group. If you need immediate help, target Wills and Thomas. If you’re looking for upside, Wirfs and Becton are worth the risk. Beyond that, most of these prospects are bound to top out as the third best tackle on their teams.
1. Andrew Thomas, Georgia
Thomas was ranked as OT1 and a top ten pick early in the college season. As 2019 unfolded, a lot of analysts have picked him apart and dropped him a few slots. He’s still the top OT in my book. There’s no Joe Thomas/Jonathan Ogden-earmarked-for-the –hall-of-fame type prospects in this class. Absent of a perennial all-pro, if I’m desperate for an OT in the top ten of the draft I’m going to value stability more than upside. Thomas’s ceiling is lower than Tristan Wirfs or Mekhi Becton, but not THAT much lower and he has a higher floor (especially in year 1).
Thomas is the best all around lineman. He has size, power, and his blocks are just stickier and more sudden than others in the class. His quickness and agility are just average. If he’s going to get beat it’s with speed around the edge. I wouldn’t fault tackle needy teams for reaching for him a little in the 3-6 ruange, but his best value is between picks 8 and 10.
2. Jedrick Wills, Alabama
Wills played RT the last two years at Alabama. He’s solid all around. He’s not as strong as Thomas run blocking, but he moves a little better. Can he play on the left side? Probably, but it’s a little bit of an unknown. Overall he’s OT2, but he’s right on Thomas’s heels.
3. Tristan Wirfs, Iowa
I have to go back and watch Wirfs again because I keep hearing how powerful he is and how well he anchors, but when I watched him I thought those were his weaknesses. His movement skills are electric. He’s as agile as anyone I can remember and if you look at his combine numbers you might think I’m underselling his athletic ability. They should make a stat where they count how many times a player blocks multiple defenders on one play and call them Wirfs’. The ball snaps, he engages with the player in front of him or helps inside and then as soon as somebody tries to loop around the edge from inside or a late blitzer comes screaming in, Wirfs slides right out to deal with it. “Hey, did you see that right tackle from Iowa last night? He had 3.5 Wirfs’ in the game.”
The parts that give me pause are when he struggles to get push run blocking against players that aren’t 100 lbs. lighter than him or when somebody with a little meat on their bones comes at him a bull rush and he just barely holds them off. What is he going to do with NFL rushers with a little more pop than the DE’s at Michigan (one of the few games I found where he was playing against any halfway competent edge players)?
When really good OT’s drive off the line there’s this moment where they lock onto the defender and then just push forward like a truck with a giant magnet on the front that drives forward into a hunk of steel. When Wirfs engages it looks more like a magnet being pushed up against the same pole of a different magnet. Think about the sticky blocks I talked about with Thomas. Thomas sticks (not like a super powered Orlando Pace magnet.. more like a regular magnet). Wirfs repels.
Wirfs doesn’t deserve to fall too far. Based on his movement skills alone his ceiling is up in the clouds, but if you’re looking to start him day 1 you might be a little disappointed for a couple of years as he adjusts to the level of competition and beefs up. He should go between picks 10 to 15.
4. Mekhi Becton, Louisville
The mountain that rides!.. or should I say the mountain that cut blocks (seriously, what was Louisville thinking? I get that you have your scheme that you want to run but maybe you could have come up with something better to do with your 370 lb. lineman than to routinely send him diving into the ground. Note, I can’t even say that he was diving at people’s knees because he missed 90% of the time and just ended up rolling around on the field).
Becton is giant with unnatural movement skills for his size. We’re not talking Wirfs-like Kung fu panda quickness or anything, but he can move well enough to capitalize on his superior size. I do lump him in with Wirfs though in terms of being a guy that will likely disappoint if asked to start from day 1. He relies a little too much on his physical traits:
- Using one-arm shoves to push away tiny defenders where stronger players with better hand technique are going to chew him up.
- Letting his girth do too much of the work on outside speed rushes where better athletes are going to be able to bend and get around him.
I question his blocking intelligence too where a lot of times he fires off the line, steps past a defender and then spins around looking for someone to block. Some of this might correct itself if he gets drafted into a better scheme fit, but where he chooses to move his body reacting to the natural chaos of a football play doesn’t feel quite fluid and natural enough to sign off on him as a sure thing.
All of this said, he is big. Citing the classic George Young “planet theory”, there are only so many guys THAT big that can move like THAT. He’s a first round pick based off potential. Teams picking in the top ten need him to excel right away and if he’s asked to do that I’m afraid his career will end up looking like one of those ill-fated cut blocks from his college tape. If he gets picked more in the 14 to 18 range he’ll still need to start early, but he might have a little more leeway to play through growing pains.
5. Lucas Niang, TCU
Solid right tackle that played through injury last year and eventually missed most of the year with a hip issue. The lack of medical rechecks this year might cause him to fall farther than he should. He’s not a mauler, but can move people in the run game. With the bum hip he looked a little succeptible to speed around the edge in 2019, but he got several reps against Chase Young in 2018 when he wasn’t hurt and looked pretty respectable. Niang could be a day three steal if he drops for health reasons.
6. Ezra Cleveland, Boise State
A bull. He gets good push run blocking. He’s adequate in pass protection, but he looks a little heavy footed and susceptible to counter moves. Are we sure he’s not a guard?
7. Saahdiq Charles, LSU
Charles is lower on most lists. He’s not perfect by any means, but all of the tools seem to be there. A lot of his mistakes appear to be mental concentration lapses more than anything. He needs to go to a team with a good O-line coach and he’ll surprise people.
8. Josh Jones, Houston
More of a lean prospect best for schemes that require smaller more agile lineman. He moves well but he has a few baby deer moments where he comes barreling down the line and his body gets out of sync and he trips or stumbles. Good developmental prospect mid day 2.
9. Isaiah Wilson, Georgia
Big, powerful right tackle that will struggle blocking athletic pass rush moves and hang around the league due to his run blocking.
10. Matthew Peart, UCONN
Similar to Niang without the injuries. Solid all-around. We’ll see how he adapts to higher competition.
11. Ben Bartch, St. John
Small school kid that impressed with his technique at the Senior Bowl. He’ll need time to adjust to the strength he’ll be facing in the pros.
12. Jack Driscol, Auburn
This OT class might be a little overrated in terms of top to bottom talent, but the list of prospects with mid-round caliber talent goes on and on. Solid. Good strength. Might struggle with ultra quick pass rushers. I feel like a broken record, but Driscoll fits the mold.
13. Austin Jackson, USC
Pretty average in terms of size and athletic ability. Looks good in a lot of games. Against A.J. Epenesa?.. Not so hot. Not quick enough. Not strong enough.
14. Prince Tega Wanogho, Auburn
Raw player that has only been playing football a few years. It's painful to watch him try to move around. When he runs upfield, he looks like a 75 year-old man. Maybe he’ll develop, but he is too awkward for me to have much faith.
All in all this is a decent group. If you need immediate help, target Wills and Thomas. If you’re looking for upside, Wirfs and Becton are worth the risk. Beyond that, most of these prospects are bound to top out as the third best tackle on their teams.
Saturday, April 11, 2020
2020 NFL Draft: QB Primer
Images of 300 lb. bodies streaking down the combine field loosely
held together by spandex have streamed relentlessly across the internet. The
monotonous rumor generator is humming... team X is “open for business at number
2”.. team y is “open for business at number 3”.. Team H, I, J, K, LMNO, P is
“open for business” at every other pick in the first round. We’re in the thick of draft season baby! Less than two weeks to go. It’s go time!
I haven’t put eyes on all of the top talent yet, but with my
team holding the number one pick poised to turn the page on the Andy Dalton
era, I’ve youtube searched my way into having an opinion on most of the top
quarterback talent. Here’s how I see
the 2020 QB draft landscape:
J 1. Joe Burrow, LSU
Burrow comes in positioned as the consensus slam dunk number
1 pick whose number one prospect candidacy somehow simultaneously has an
awkward vibe to it. Part of the paradox relates
to his physical traits. He is tall but a little lean with small hands. He can throw downfield but he
doesn’t have a cannon. He can scramble
but he’s not exactly fast. The
measurable traits don’t make you drool, but he modestly checks boxes. The gravitational pull to Joe Burrow comes
from more subtle characteristics: pocket presence, accuracy, the ability to
read and react, confidence, moxie (you know, actual moxie.. not the sophomoric,
petulant kind that everyone decided to call “moxie” when Baker Mayfield was
coming out). Although difficult to
measure, Burrow’s strengths are the most important ingredients for a QB prospect’s
success, and when you tally it all up, well he just kind of levitates a little
higher than everyone else.
He sashays
around the pocket escaping pressure like he has eyes in the back of his head, he
throws with pinpoint accuracy, but the
mortar that binds it all together to make for one bad*&$$ QB is how well he
tracks movement downfield while he’s sliding around before he has to sling it. If there’s one thing I’d criticize, he tends
to take off to run a little too much. A
lot of it might have been circumstantial in terms of designed runs and taking
what defenses were giving as they overcompensated to defend against LSU’s
potent downfield weapons. Still it makes
me a little nervous. He has some
athleticism to capitalize on rushing opportunities, but there’s just enough
stiffness in his gait to make me question whether he has the athleticism to
scramble for yardage in the NFL.
Burrow is a
great prospect, but it did take a little while for him to win me over.
- Some of it had to do with slowly digesting
his finer traits that I’ve hashed through above.
- Some of it had to do with him having to
transfer away from Ohio State to get a starting job.
-Combined with lucking into LSU
transitioning into an offensive staff/system that seemed to give the Tigers a
tactical advantage against most college defenses.
-Combined with the offensive talent on his
team being superior to just about everyone other than Alabama.
-Combined with the contrast in degrees of
success between his two years of starting at LSU.
Then the more I watched, I started to see some of the
advantages. Oddly enough, what first caught
my eye wasn’t the downfield precision that everyone lauds, but it was his short
passes. He has a way of throwing screens
and outlet passes where he just flicks the ball pinpointed right to where the
receiver needs it like he’s Spiderman with a web shooter. As someone who has watched Andy Dalton for the
last nine years squandering available yardage on screen passes spraying throws
to approximate spots, constantly getting passes batted, throwing his little
moon ball outlet passes that have
inevitably almost led to the death of multiple running backs… MAN was it a sight for sore eyes (Somewhere Gionvanni Bernard is nodding
sadly). Anyway, summing it up, I’m in! Burrow is the right man for the job. His skill set matches Cincy’s scheme. His personality is a good fit for the city. The Bengals young new regime has their man to
build around.
2 2. Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama
The tank for Tua sweepstakes has headlined
the draft landscape for the past two years.
The story took an interesting twist in 2019 as the guy who’s been
penciled in as the 2020 number one pick since the 2017 National Championship
game suffered two more injuries requiring his second and third surgeries in the
last two seasons. Despite recent
positive medical reports, surgeries on each ankle and one on his hip are a
little unsettling. The fact that he’s
even still being considered in the top 5 speaks to his quality as a prospect
(can you imagine the debates we would have had on the top QB if he hadn’t hurt
his hip?).
Yet, ask me what Tagovailoa does best and
it gives me pause. Similar to Burrow
he’s good at just about everything, but he pulls his real advantage from some
of the less tangible traits. He’s more
mobile than Burrow, but I wouldn’t call him a running quarterback. He makes throws all over the field but I
wouldn’t say he has elite accuracy or arm strength. There just aren’t too many flaws and the
deficiencies that do exist seem fixable (trying to buy time by back pedaling
and simultaneously throwing off target, getting duped by a particular coverage
causing some of his picks etc.). Looking
at his overall resume, he has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in
college football history. Granted he’s
also had some of the best receiving corps ever,
but he still deserves a significant amount of credit for his decision
making and ability to make plays going all the way back to his freshman season
on the biggest stage in college football.
People were a little overzealous with the
Kyler Murray to Russel Wilson comp last year (I might have even floated it once
or twice) but watching Tagovailoa this year makes me think that was folly. It’s not a direct comparison. Citing Wilson as the ceiling in terms of
range of outcomes is even a little ambitious but he has the talent to at
least be in the same ball park. Throw in
the injuries and he’s slotted right where he should be in the top 6 as the
number 2 QB prospect.
3 3. Jordan Love, Utah State
Love impressed enough in 2018 to be on the
top QB watch list but shaky numbers in 2019 silenced most of the buzz. My take after watching a few of his games is
to reaffirm that college stats should always be taken with a grain of
salt. Whether it’s abysmal TD to INT
ratios or exorbitant yards per carry numbers, none of it can be used to judge
prospects without careful consideration of context. If your team lost 9 of 11 starters on offense
and changed their coaching staff would you expect better or worse stats? Now
apply that same situation to the youthful volatility of a college football
program and you start to shrug off Love throwing more interceptions in
2019. Apparently others feel similarly
because coming out of the combine, the buzz on Love has resumed. Some people have even whispered the P word…
as in Patrick Mahommes. I don’t think
it’s necessarily people making a direct comparison. It’s more..here’s a raw prospect with lots of
tools that will blossom quickly in the right situation. Still, let’s slow down with even trying to
make loose associations to the best football player in the world. I won’t pretend like I watched Mahommes and
thought he was going to ascend to top QB-Super Bowl champion-league MVP status
within three years or anything like that, but I remember a very specific “whoa”
reaction and thinking he had a chance of actually living up to the Brett Favre
comparison that people constantly recycle every time there’s a gunslinger
prospect. Jordan Love is not that. He has a good frame, he’s mobile, and he can
make throws all over the field with adequate vision and streaky downfield
accuracy. If we’re going to make lofty
comparisons to an established star, Love is not a Mahommes-like revolutionary
talent. Think more in the range of a junior
version of Cam Newton both physically (6’3” 225 lbs. vs. 6’5” 250 lbs.) and in
terms of his field presence. He plays
similar, but Newton at Auburn was an unstoppable force of nature with the
gravitational pull of a planet. Love
would qualify as a much smaller celestial object.
Still, the talent to be a top ten quarterback
in the league is there. The notion is nonsense that no one should
pull the trigger on him until late round 1 because he’s too raw. Yes, he needs to develop and there’s some
risk, but as long as teams have confirmed he’s a good kid that’s going to take
the job seriously, he’s worth it. My
philosophy is to ask what’s the ceiling , what’s the floor, and (most
critically) what’s the probability that he’s going to hit either? If you assess a greater than 10% chance of
getting a top one or two tier QB in the league, then go for it. Wait as long as you dare, then pull the
trigger. In this case, I see it. The allure of the elite talent in this class
will probably allow for a little leeway if you want Love, but don’t wait too
long. He should go top 12 in this draft.
4 4. Justin Herbert, Oregon
Herbert is a physical specimen. Some would even say he’s too tall. However, with size, athleticism, and arm
strength to spare most simply drool over his physical presence. His lower key personality has been
questioned, but he’s made a concerted effort to show he has the passion and
guts to lead a team even if it is more of a quiet fire that burns in his
belly.
Herbert is physically impressive for sure,
but I don’t see any one trait strong enough to push the ceiling high for
him. He’s athletic, but not electric
when he runs. His arm strength is above
average, but when he does throw down the field, it’s a bit of an adventure as a
viewer wondering where the ball is going to go as the camera pans to follow his
passes. He doesn’t throw as wild as Josh
Allen, but he’s not as dangerous scrambling and his arm isn’t quite as
strong. Slightly more polished but less
explosive Josh Allen. Where would you
draft him?
Reports indicate there’s a decent top ten
market for Herbert. I think he’s going
to slide a little but not too far. Teams
with uncertainty at QB haven’t been aggressive lately going after veteran QB’s,
but will likely be more tempted to add a young rookie with potential. Herbert stands to benefit from the steep drop
off after QB4 in this draft class.
Between picks 10 and 15 is more the range I’m thinking.
Back Up Please:
I think four quarterbacks go in the first round for sure, but I don't think there's anyone else I'd take until at least round 3. It's hard to rank these guys because for the most part I think you're looking at backup quarterback quality players without much starter potential that will differ in value from team to team based on offensive scheme. Jalen Hurts for example is a good athlete who's been battle tested in high pressure situations but doesn't have enough passing talent to be a quality starter. He'd be great for Baltimore. Jake Fromm? Not so much. Here's the rough order I'd put them in, but it kind of depends what you're shopping for.
5 5. Jacob Eason, Washington
Eason’s calling card is his rocket
arm. He can fire the ball into just
about anywhere, but is effective putting a little touch on his passes when he
needs to. Some team will likely tab him
as their future QB on day 2 of the draft.. I would be hesitant. It’s a bit harrowing watching him play. If Herbert passing downfield is an adventure,
watching Eason throw is like riding on the handlebars of someone’s bike while
going down a mountain. He has stretches
where he has the offense rolling and I start to think maybe he is a first round
pick and then the train will come off the rails in spectacular fashion. One play from the Utah game he drops back
turns and fires about an eight yard out and then immediately starts sprinting
over to get in position to make a tackle before the corner even jumps the route
to pick off the pass. To his credit, and
maybe his fault at times, he doesn’t seem to have much memory. He’ll come out the next series slinging it…
spinning away from pressure, rolling right, and rocketing a pass downfield
leading a blanketed receiver perfectly for an improbable completion. He shows flashes of greatness for sure, but
if you decide he’s your man, good luck.
He’ll make you laugh and he’ll make you cry.. probably in a matter of minutes.
6 6. James Morgan,
Florida International
This is the one guy outside of the top four that I’d point
to that has the ceiling to develop into a pretty good starter. He looked outstanding throwing short to
intermediate routes but he showed little to nothing in terms of downfield
accuracy. Plug him in as a backup for a
few years and maybe you catch lightning in a bottle.
7 7. Tyler Huntley, Utah
Okay, disclaimer here: I’m going out on a limb with this one. Huntley is buried on most ranking lists I’ve
seen and he wasn’t even invited to the combine, but I’m telling you there’s
something to this guy. He’s an
experienced three year starter. I
wouldn’t call his size and arm strength prototypical but he won’t look out of
place as a quarterback in the league.
He’s not going to terrify defenses with his speed, but he’s elusive in
the pocket and can tuck and run when needed.
His accuracy seems fantastic at times.
He’ll make 5 or 6 great throws and then he’ll have a couple of
head-scratching worm burners. I was
surprised to see how low people have him ranked. He looks like he commands the field well even
if there is a bit of a frantic nature to him.
Does he have the juice to fill the cornerstone role for a
franchise? He has potential, but he
looks like the guy that comes off the bench and makes you say, “whoa, who’s
this guy??” And then after three weeks
he makes you wonder when the injured starter is coming back. Can he eventually develop from impressive
backup into a mid-tier starter in a Kirk Cousins’ish sort of way? Maybe.
I’m not staking more than a day 3 pick on it, but I’m rooting for you
Tyler Huntley! He at the very least
belongs on a pro roster and if I’m really being honest with myself I’m ranking
him two spots higher on this list.
8 8. Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma
Good athlete without much passing
talent. We’ve already seen Hurts’
perfect roll at Alabama when he relieved Tua in the playoffs to hold things
together, make a few plays, and pull out a win.
He’s a hard worker with great character who won’t be scared when he has
to play in a pinch. He’s the perfect backup that I always said Tim Tebow should
have been only he’s better because everyone
knows that he shouldn’t start.
9 9. Jake Fromm, Georgia
Once considered a top prospect, Fromm played enough games in
college to show he’s never going to be good enough athletically or mentally to
be more than an average starter. Sure that
might not be the end of the world for some situations, but why draft a guy in
the top 90 picks if his ceiling is Andy Dalton?
10. Bryce Perkins, Virginia
Made it to the ACC title championship game
without a lot around him. Tough as
nails. He has a loopy throwing motion
that just barely gets the job done. Athletic. He straddles the line between backup quality and
needing a position switch.
Somebody Call Vince McMahon:
Quick note, I didn’t watch much more than
these last three guys yet, and I don’t know if I’ll have time to circle back
around. Of the guys I watched enough to
have an opinion, this is the thanks but no thanks category. Brian Lewerke, Kelly Bryant, and any other
eligible players showing on super deep ranking lists: I apologize if you are actually better than
anyone on this list. Someday I’ll have
enough bandwidth to make sure no one falls through the cracks but today is not
that day.
1 11. Anthony Gordon, Washington State
Smaller feisty prospect. He didn’t seem to do much outside of the Mike
Leach scheme. It felt like constant
screens and five yard crossers and I didn’t see anything that really sucked me
in.
1 12. Steven Montez, Colorado
I thought it was hard to get a feel for
Laviska Shenault because Colorado’s offense just wasn’t up to snuff and Montez
appeared to be part of the problem.
13. Nate Stanley, Iowa
These aren’t the droids you’re
looking for. Move along.
That's it! Overall, it's a decent class. There's not much depth, but the top four have a pretty good shot at being quality starters including two capable of being more than that. That's nothing to sneeze at considering there have been years when E.J. Manuel, Geno Smith, and Mike Glennon were the top three quarterbacks selected, but still the lack of sleeper talent on day 2 and beyond weighs this group down a little.
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