The 2016 season has begun! Time to check in with some predictions for the year. I didn't meet the Thursday kickoff deadline for this post, but I figured I'd try to at least get my thoughts on record before the Sunday madness kicks off tomorrow. I could probably ramble on with takes all day, but I'll try to keep this brief.
AFC North:
Pittsburgh 10-6
It feels like it is shaping up as a Murphy's Law season for the Steelers (or maybe that's wishful thinking). But with Jason Voorhees at quarterback, I'm not sure all of the injuries and suspensions in the world can stop them. I'm still picking them to win the division.
Baltimore 9-7
On the surface Baltimore looks like a team with too many holes to succeed in 2016. They have almost no receiving weapons. Their pass rushers are aging. Their secondary still looks porous. Beware, that's what we thought about Carolina last year too. I'm not predicting a MVP season for Flacco, but the Ravens as a whole should bounce back a little; strong organizations usually do. While they come up a little short of the division crown, 9-7 feels much better for a franchise not used to picking in the top 10 of the draft.
Cincinnati 9-7
Sorry Bengals fans. I have our striped crusaders finishing 3rd in the division this year. However, the drop off isn't necessarily for all of the boiler plate reasons that have constantly been cited all offseason (at least not directly). I think this team is good. In fact, when I start trying to rank the 32 teams, I come up with a core of 5 to 8 teams and then the rest of the league is sort of a jumbled mess. I would argue you could slot the Bengals into the top 5.
Everyone thinks the offense will sputter with the WR free agency defections, the Eifert injury, and most of all the departure of the almighty Hue Jackson. The offense will be just fine. Sanu is a fairly average receiver, and Tyler Boyd essentially looks like he is a rich man's version of Sanu. Marvin Jones is good. He is certainly better than Lafell, and the default analysis seems to be to make the obvious one on one comparison between Jones and Lafell, dismiss Boyd as a rookie, and chalk it up as a red flag for the offense. Meanwhile, if you imagine replacing Jones with Lafell, some sliver of Boyd when he's not needed for slot duties, an increased target load on A.J. Green, some combination of the balance of the receiving corps, and a little heavier dose of Giovani Bernard and all of a sudden you talking about a 10 or 15% downgrade rather than 50%+.
The baseline offense will be fine. It's the loss of depth that I worry about. With Jones on the roster, it was much easier to navigate potentials pitfalls throughout the season. For instance, if Green goes down with a four week injury, it was reasonable to expect they could at least stay afloat and maybe go 2-2 without their best offensive player. Without Jones, they are more vulnerable.
The Eifert injury isn't ideal, but it seems a little presumptive at this point to extrapolate the negative impact of the injury through the entire year. If he returns by week 5 and works his way into shape by week 8, it might not be such a bad thing.
As far as Jackson goes, can we slow down on the Hue Jackson is a play-calling demigod narrative? I was glad when Jackson returned to Cincy for his second coaching stint. He did a lot of great things the past two years, but he wasn't infallible. I thought sometimes he got too cute with his gameplans and he took a little too long to change course and correct. I thought he turtled in crunch time a few times. For instance, they had multiple chances to seize control of the Denver game in the fourth quarter. Instead of being aggressive and trying to take the win they went conservative. I think Jackson will do good things in Cleveland, but will the room start to choke on all the smoke he blows three or four years down the road when they finally get that roster turned around? Can he stop out thinking himself as a play-caller? These are all questions the Bengals would have had to face had he stuck around. Ken Zampese is an unknown, and everyone tends to fear unknowns. But there is a chance that Zampese will be an upgrade over Jackson and people aren't putting enough weight on that possibility right now.
Overall, health is my biggest concern with this team. I'm a big believer that injuries in this sport are a matter of probability. Last year, they went half the year or more with almost no starters missing games due to injury. This year I doubt they'll be so lucky. Preseason injuries have already taken there toll on the roster. Will it snowball and sink the season early? Or will they weather the storm and slowly get a few players back and pick up some momentum in the second half of the season in time for a playoff push? It could go either way, but the pessimist in me is betting they fight the injury bug all year long. I think they end up gutting out 9 wins and coming up just short of the playoffs.
Cleveland 6-10
The Browns make some progress. Their young players load up on experience, they end up with two top-ten picks in the draft (more on that later), and they have some positive momentum going into next year,
AFC South
Tennessee 10-6
Okay, I'm going out on a limb on this one. There was no shortage of Mike Mularkey jokes throughout the offseason, but I have a feeling Mularkey will have the last laugh. They rebuilt their WR corps around precise rout runners. They constructed an intriguing backfield with a promising young offensive line. Their defense has more talent than people give credit. The Titans come out of nowhere to steal the AFC South.
Houston 9-7
It would be a travesty if Clowney finally has a healthy season and J.J. Watt's body lets him down. Still, this defense should be good. The offense has more talent, but offensive line health might stunt their growth.
Indianapolis 8-8
I am pulling for the Andrew Luck bounce back season, but looking at the defense and the offensive line, I don't know if it's in the cards this year.
Jacksonville 7-9
Unfortunately, with the buzz the Jaguars have generated 7-9 will feel like a disappointment. Hopefully, it is enough progress to keep this front office/coaching regime in tact for one more year.
AFC East
New England 11-5
Tom Brady is out for a quarter of the season, Gronkowski is already hurt and still no one can imagine anyone challenging the kings of the east for their crown. I don't really see it either.
Buffalo 8-8
Another team that has had nothing but bad news this summer. Still, I like the vibe of Tyrod Taylor in this offense. If the Ryan brothers could put together a half decent defense the Bills might actually stand a chance.
N.Y. Jets 6-10
This is admittedly low for the Jets. There's just something about going back to the Ryan Fitzpatrick well that feels like it is going to backfire. That and year two of Brandon Marshall is always a horror show. It's only a matter of time before all we read about is practices missed due to a hip injury.
Miami 3-13
Ryan Tannehill doesn't have it and this defense just doesn't look like it's going to have any teeth this year. Adam Gase needs to gut the roster and start over.
AFC West
Kansas City 11-5
If the D can hold it together until reinforcements come off the PUP it could be a special year in K.C. I have faith Andy Reid will keep this offense chugging maybe in the form of a career year for Alex Smith?
San Diego 9-7
Is Phillip Rivers finally going to have a year where his offensive line doesn't disintegrate in front of him? It's that probability thing again. They are due for a healthy year. The defense might be better than we think.
Denver 9-7
Trevor Siemian looked okay on Thurs. He made some mistakes not throwing lob passes or dump offs high enough, but those things will go away with experience.
Oakland 6-10
Everyone's favorite sleeper team comes up a little short of expectations. I'm not as sold on Derek Carr as most people. Still, the roster is solid. I think they're a year away from challenging for the playoffs.
NFC North
Green Bay 11-5
What are the chances Aaron Rodgers has two down years in a row? This is a "Relax" season.
Detroit 8-8
The Lions will be as inconsistent as their quarterback. They feel like a team that will slay a giant one week and then lose to a bottom feeder the next.
Minnesota 8-8
One of the story lines of the season I was looking forward to the most was whether the Teddy Bridgewater argument would be settled. Who is right Teddy's loyal supporters or his skeptics? Now we may never know. Zimmer drags this team to 8-8 anyway.
Chicago 7-9
The roster is improved, but neither the offense nor the defense have enough fire power to contend yet.
NFC South
Carolina 11-5
Down year for the Panthers. Only 11 wins this year. The defense is still strong and Cam Newton seems indestructible. They should mop up this division.
Tampa Bay 10-6
Famous Jameis makes a run at Cam Kool and the Gang, but it's not as close as these records would indicate. The o-line is a question mark, but the rest of the roster is rounding into form. Maybe the defense is still a year away from being a good unit, but I like Winston to put on a show.
Atlanta 8-8
If this team is going to be better than this it's going to be because Matt Ryan's dip in play last year was a mirage. The rest of the pieces are there on offense other than maybe a tight end. The defense still needs some work.
New Orleans 6-10
Everybody is confident Drew Brees will keep this thing rolling, but I think they'll have some hiccups this year. The defense couldn't get any worse than last year
NFC East
Washington 10-6
If you know what's going to happen in this division you are a better person than me. Washington, Dallas, New York. Draw names out of a hat. One of them has to have a good year right?
Dallas 8-8
Dak fever is upon us. He will have his highs and lows, but the defense will let him down.
N.Y. Giants 6-10
Buying a mercenary defense never works. The offensive line is a little scary. I drafted Odell Beckham in my fantasy league. All indicators that things won't go well for the Giants this year.
Philadelphia 2-14
I am excited to see if Carson Wentz can prove the naysayers wrong. He should not be attempting to do it in year one. I am a staunch believer in letting young QB's sit for at least half a year. Philly might be coughing up the number 1 pick to Cleveland.
NFC West
Seattle 12-4
The Seahawks feel like the favorites this year. They're not coming off a crushing Super Bowl loss. They're not coming into the year with key players banged up. The offensive line is shaky, but somehow it doesn't seem to matter with them.
Arizona 9-7
I'm not sure Carson Palmer has it any more, but the Cardinals sneak a wild card berth.
San Francisco 5-12
I wish Chip Kelly didn't land with a team with such a sub par roster. The Blaine train derails at some point and Kaepernick suffers a knee contusion from kneeling so much.
Los Angeles 4-12
It feels odd not to pencil in 7-9 here. Oh who am I kidding? Change Arizona to 8-8, change San Francisco to 3-13 and tab the Rams for 7 wins. The universe needs to stay in balance.
Playoffs??!!
AFC
New England snags a bye for the 170th year in a row. K.C. joins them.
Pittsburgh and Tennessee fall in the wild card round. New England is one and done after running into a red-hot Phillip Rivers buzz saw. K.C. makes it an AFC West party in the championship game after taking care of Baltimore. The Chiefs punch there Super Bowl Ticket as someone finally manages to slow down Rivers.
NFC
Palmer can't shake the playoff demons and gets outdueled by Kirk Cousins. Cam Kool puts Famous Jameis in his place, but gets chilled in Lambeau the following week. The Seahawks essentially have a bye into the championship game where Rodgers and company just can't hang with Russell Wilson and the Legion of Boom.
The Super Bowl
It feels lame, but I'm picking the favorite in a landslide. Seattle slaughters Kansas City 52-17.
