It’s mock time. It
will change over the next month, but here's a snap shot of names being
discussed in the top 20. That of course will lead us right up to that magic 21
slot presently owned by your Cincinnati Bengals.
1. Kansas City
The Chiefs have traded themselves out of any scenario where
they might reach for Geno Smith or Matt Barkley with the Alex Smith deal. (Quick
tangent: Chiefs fans were mortified their team put their eggs in A. Smith's
solid but uninspiring and somewhat tattered basket. Following a year where the
free agency and draft crops netted teams QB’s the likes of Peyton Manning,
Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson, and Ryan Tannehill, it's hard
to blame them for feeling mopey. Analysts, for the most part, look at it as a
good move to take the initiative to acquire the best player available at the
team's most dire need position. At 28 years old with eight years of NFL
experience, A. Smith has potential in both the short term and the long term.
Personally, I like the fit with Andy Reid, I just think they needed to find a
way to keep the second round pick they used to pull off the deal. This draft is
all about depth. They were either in line for a really good player or a very
valuable trading chip. Instead, they paid premium value when they were
essentially bidding against themselves.)
That basically leaves the OT’s duking it out for the number one overall
slot. Scouts are split, but right now
we’ll still give the nod to Luke Joeckel.
The Pick: Luke Joeckel, OT Texas A&M
2. Jacksonville
The Jaguars also face the quandary of picking at the top of
a draft with no obvious future all-pro prospects. Their roster has quite a few holes, but there
isn’t an obvious need/value fit here. The new front office needs to rate the best player available and go for
it. That narrows this pick down to the top corner, the pass rushing DT whose
stock is soaring and the OT pushing Joeckel as the top overall pick. Dee Millner’s sub 4.4 40 yard dash at the
combine give him just enough boost to get the nod here.
The Pick: Dee Millner, CB Alabama
3. Oakland
Oakland’s post-Al Davis front office seems to be making all
the right moves. Unfortunately, the hole
they’re digging themselves out of is pretty deep. Much like Jacksonville, this pick has to be a
matter of taking the best player available regardless of need. They should field calls to trade down for
more picks if they can. They need a high
volume of players playing for economical salaries. If they must stay put, pass rushing DT’s are
hard to find.
The Pick: Sharrif Floyd, DT Florida
4. Philadelphia
Let the Chip Kelly era begin! The offensive line has to get better, but for
now they’ll hope players returning from injury will cure those woes. Switching to more of a hybrid defense, this
will most likely be a debate between adding versatile OLB talent and rebuilding
their D-line. Kelly will likely be
tempted to gamble on his former player, OLB/DE Dion Jordan, but in the end Star
Lotulelei is the safer bet (…sort of. Assuming the heart condition detected at the combine turns out to be no
big deal that is). Capable of playing
3-4 DE or 4-3 DT, Lotulelei brings scheme flexibility and fits nicely next to
last year’s number one pick, Fletcher Cox.
The Pick: Star Lotulelei, DT Utah
5. Detroit
The four teams in front of Detroit mulled over whether to
take OT Eric Fisher. The Lions finally
pull the trigger. A DE would be nice,
but protecting Matthew Stafford should be first priority.
The Pick: Eric Fisher, OT Central Michgan
6. Cleveland
Cheer up Cleveland fans. I have a feeling your luck is starting to change. New ownership has assembled a pretty
impressive front office, and it should only be a matter of time before they
mold their roster into one of the league’s best. I have Dion Jordan slotted here. Their recent free-agency acquisition of OLB
Paul Kruger calls into question whether they’ll go OLB in this slot, but Jordan
is a unique talent capable of dropping into coverage and rushing the
passer. I’m sticking with it.
The Pick: Dion Jordan, OLB/DE Oregon
7. Arizona
Geno Smith generated buzz at his pro day, but the recent
word out of Arizona is they aren’t interested in a QB in round one. No team is dumb enough to actually tip their
hand to that extent at this stage of the game so believe what you want to
believe. For now, we’ll assume it’s
true. Past QB, OT is a no-brainer in
this slot. Lane Johnson has done nothing
but move up draft boards this offseason to the point where he now comes up in
discussions right alongside Joeckel and Fisher.
The Pick: Lane Johnson, OT Oklahoma
8. Buffalo
The Bills are once again starting from scratch as they’ve
purged their coaching staff and quarterback from last season. With former Syracuse head coach Doug Marrone
now holding the clipboard, don’t be surprised if he reaches for one of his
former players, QB Ryan Nassib. However, in this
scenario, most peoples’ number one QB, Geno Smith is still on the board. Riding the momentum from his pro day, Smith is
the man for now.
The Pick: Geno Smith, QB West Virginia
9. New York Jets
Talk about a train wreck. The Jets need to stockpile picks
and reshape their roster. Yet, they
decided to retain head coach Rex Ryan for next season. With the head coach needing to win now to
keep his job and the team needing to launch into all out rebuilding mode, the
Jets 2013 season feels like a recipe for disaster. Who knows, maybe it’s a shrewd move to use
Ryan as a lame duck head coach in the destruction phase of the rebuilding
process to accelerate the next coach’s rehabilitation efforts. More likely, owner Woody Johnson just isn’t
ready to give up yet and the Jets opt for OLB in this slot. In that case, Barkevious Mingo feels like he
is tailor made to be a Jet. Mingo boasts
outstanding potential, but I think he is destined to disappoint at the pro
level. As many analysts have detailed,
his athleticism is off the charts, but his production on the field doesn’t
match his talent. Some downplay it
saying it’s more related to how coaches used him at LSU. I can’t get past it. College football is a world of haves and have
nots, and LSU’s defense certainly can be placed in the haves category. Mingo was playing with at least three other
guys that will go in the first two rounds of the draft and probably another two
or three more that will get drafted high in future years. To not produce with the deck stacked in your
favor is a red flag for me. Time will
tell.
The Pick: Barkevious Mingo, OLB/DE LSU
10. Tennessee
The Titans picked up the top guard in free agency, but I
don’t think they stop there. Defensive
end is a possibility, but I think they continue to invest in the offensive
line. They decided a couple of years ago
to build their team around their big play running back, Chris Johnson. Now they need to invest in an O-line that can
make holes for him.
The Pick: Jonathan Cooper, G North Carolina
11. San Diego
San Diego is another offensive line that needs rebuilt. Lane Johnson would be a shoe-in but he’s gone
already in this scenario. Chance Warmack
is pretty much the only player in this draft class anyone considers as an elite
prospect for his position. Cooper jumps
ahead of him because he’s more athletic and fits better in Tennessee’s scheme,
but no one doubts Warmack has the talent to be great. Two guards in the top ten seems outlandish, but
scouts say these two guys are the real deal.
The Pick: Chance Warmack, G Alabama
12. Miami
Miami has grabbed headlines this free agency period, and if
this mock plays out they will continue to draw buzz with this pick. Ezekiel Ansah is a 270 pound athletic
freak. He has only played football for a
couple of years so he comes with growing pains, but teams won’t be able to
resist the upside.
The Pick: Ezekiel Ansah, DE BYU
13. Tampa Bay
Tampa has invested a pile of picks in their D-line recently
without much to show for it. The way the value is shaking out in this slot, it
looks like they'll keep trying. Bjoern Werner was slotted top five early in the
process. He's dropped down behind the athletic, high ceiling types lately but
you have to figure the Buccaneers would love to nab him this low.
The Pick: Bjoern Werner, DE Florida State
14. Carolina
Right about 13, the WR's start to come into play. DT is the
bigger need though and the gap between the day one and day two DT's is much wider
than the gap between the WR's. Sheldon Richardson has some top ten buzz and is
capable of filling the elusive role of playmaker in the middle of the defensive
line.
The Pick: Sheldon Richardson, DT Missouri
15. New Orleans
The Saints could stand to restock their offensive weaponry,
but the more pressing need is to acquire fresh blood at linebacker for new
defensive coordinator Rob Ryan's 3-4 defense. There will be WR's they can snag
later. Alec Ogletree is a sideline to sideline LB that can cover like a safety.
Not a bad piece to build a defense around. Ogletree comes off the board and
hearts sink in Cincinnati. (If they’re comfortable with the off-the-field
baggage, of the players that have some chance of lasting to 21, he should be at
the top of Cincy’s board. The way the league is heading, covering the tight end
is crucial to competing with the elite teams, and that is what the Bengals’
defense does worst. With Rey “Molasses” Maualuga signed back up to patrol the
middle of the field the run defense is in good shape but the pass defense needs
help. Take Ogletree to play MLB, move Maualuga back to the strong side and
leave Burfict on the weak side. Unfortunately, I don’t think we have to worry
about whether or not they’d pull the trigger on that scenario.)
The Pick: Alec Ogletree, LB Georgia
16. St. Louis
It has been an “invest to help Sam Bradford offseason” so
far for the Rams. I say it continues. I'm not huge on Keenan Allen but many are
comparing him to Reggie Wayne. Don’t rule out Tavon Austin to slide into the
Danny Amendola vacancy.
The Pick: Keenan Allen, WR California
17. Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh sits quietly as James Harrison's replacement
falls right into their lap. Jarvis Jones was the most productive of the OLB
prospects last year. If he clears medically, Pittsburgh won't pass him up.
The Pick: Jarvis Jones, OLB Geogia
18. Dallas
When was the last time Dallas didn't do something flashy in
the first round (ok, they took an OT in the top ten in 2011, but still…)? Jerry Jones is itching to do something exciting. You can just feel it. He's doing
that little fake smile where he grits his teeth as I type these words. Watch
out, the Tavon Austin pick is coming. And once again, Bengals fans' hearts sink.
Some still think Austin is a late first rounder because of his size. I don't
see it. There's enough buzz about his strong character and toughness, somebody
in that 15 to 19 range will bite. The key for Austin will be to land on a team
that has a number one receiver. Otherwise he's going to get overused and he won't
hold up. Cincinnati is a great fit because they have the WR1, they have the
bigger WR2's they can line up outside, they have bigger WR’s they can throw in
the slot to run the more physical routes, and they have a small jitterbug
receiver that can replicate Austin’s roll when he gets dinged up. More
importantly, unlike most other teams in the top 20, they can afford to make a
luxury pick (assuming they sign Andre Smith or some other RT in free agency).
Their roster is in good shape and they have an extra second rounder to secure
players at other need positions (positions like LB and Safety that happen to be
deep in day 2 of the draft).
The Pick: Tavon Austin, WR West Virginia
The Pick: Tavon Austin, WR West Virginia
19. New York Giants
It’s pretty easy to project Giants first round picks. Who is
the top rated defensive end available? Their thirst for pass rushers might
actually be more justified this year. Osi Umeniora is on his way out the door
and Justin Tuck appears past his prime. Damontre Moore was slotted in the top
ten early on, but a sluggish combine and maturity concerns have chilled his
stock. He makes a good investment at 19 though.
The Pick: Damontre Moore, DE Texas A&M
20. Chicago
The Bears could go a number of directions here including
linebacker or safety. I think they pass in favor of offensive weaponry. TE
Tyler Eifert brings solid value in this slot. The Bears signed Martellus
Bennett in free agency, but he's a little too enigmatic to rely on as more than
a stop gap solution. In the meantime new head coach Mark Trestman, known as an
offensive innovator, should make good use of both TE's. Eifert is a high-end
receiving prospect that should evolve into Jay Cutler's number two target
quickly.
The Pick: Tyler Eifert, TE Notre Dame
The Pick: Tyler Eifert, TE Notre Dame
21. Cincinnati Bengals
The Ravens are being dismantled in free agency and the Steelers
are regrouping. All the Bengals have to do is sign Andre Smith and not screw up
this draft and the division is theirs for the taking. Fortunately, the depth of
this draft class simplifies things quite a bit. The Bengals could go LB, S, WR,
RB, in just about any order (hopefully leaving RB in the back half of that
sequence) and address their biggest needs with four decent players. Trading
down might also be an option with teams in those top ten slots potentially
wanting to move back into the first round to grab the quarterback they like.
Dropping ten or fifteen slots isn’t too painful in this draft and they might be
able to snag an extra third or 2014 first round pick. If they stay put, I like
Ogletree and Austin best out of the players that might be available for reasons
referenced above. Unfortunately, it
looks like both will be gone by 21. In
this scenario, the consolation prize is safety Kenny Vaccaro. Some think it’s a long shot Cincy will take a
safety. Mike Zimmer himself scoffed at
the notion, “I like our safeties.”
Really? Is that why you picked up
Chris Crocker off the street in the middle of the season and started him the
rest of the year? Others think there’s
no positional value at safety. That doesn’t
make any sense either. They are picking
at 21. I think just about any position
is in play. Ask Pittsburgh and Baltimore
if they think picking a safety in the back half of the first round is
okay. I’m not saying Vaccaro is going to
be Troy Pallamalu or Ed Reed, but let’s not get too crazy with trying to find
the golden pick. If there’s a guy there
that can contribute, take him. It’s hard
to believe that the top safety on most peoples’ boards couldn’t contribute on
Cincinnati's roster.
The Pick: Kenny Vaccaro, S Texas
Other names to watch out for:
D.J. Fluker, OT Alabama: If
the Bengals don’t sign a free agent right tackle, they might replace Smith with
another Alabama tackle. He has the size,
but is he athletic enough? Some scouts
think the team that drafts Fluker will eventually realize he’s a better fit at
guard.
DE’s:
Bringing back Robert Geathers and Wallace Gillberry was nice, but
is it a luxury they can afford? I’m not
sure they can pay Michael Johnson long term and plugging in Geathers past next
year doesn’t exactly make you feel warm and fuzzy. With Carlos Dunlap heading into free agency next
year, the time fill the hole at DE is now. DE’s might be readily available at 21, but I’m not sure there’s a roster
spot anymore. Regardless, if they do
find a way to stash a rookie somewhere this year here are the names to watch
out for:
Damontre Moore, Texas A&M: I have him going 19 right now, but it’s not unreasonable to think he might fall to 21.
Corey Lemonier, Auburn: Lemonier’s case is the opposite of the
Mingo effect referenced above. He didn’t
dominate, but as the lone good player on a bad defense his talents might have
been considerably masked.
Cornellius Carradine, Florida State: Carradine could have graded
out as one of the top DE’s in this class if he hadn’t torn his ACL late last
season. He might not be ready to go at the
start of the season, but he would be a good investment for 2014.
That’s all for now. We’re closing in on one month until draft
day. Keep an eye out for my annual full
first round mock.
