Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Mock Draft At Last!

It’s crunch time - time to take my annual swing at reading the minds of NFL coaches and GM’s across the league. More than any year I can remember, the theme for the 2011 draft is uncertainty. There is no consensus number one overall pick. There are eleven top ten level prospects and probably another ten to twelve mid round one guys. Beyond that, there isn’t much separating the next 30 to 40 players. Throw in the lack of free agency and the 2011 draft is bound to be unpredictable. Then again, Al Davis doesn’t have a pick in the first round to Raider everyone’s mock drafts so maybe we stand a chance. Probably not though, Jacksonville and Buffalo both have enough of an “out in left field” draft resume to more than carry the torch without Oakland’s help. Without further adieu:

1. Carolina:
The number one overall pick is rarely this wide open, but when you really boil it down, Carolina could go three directions:
1. Draft the top overall player: CB Patrick Peterson
2. Draft their top need: DT Marcell Dareus
3. Draft a cornerstone to build around: top quarterback on their board.
The key here is picking a player to build around. They squandered away their second round pick last year so they need a lot of mileage from the first player they take. Taking a cornerback doesn’t fit that bill, and Dareus has an injury history and hasn’t proven he can be a full time player. That leaves the QBs. Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert have jostled back and forth throughout this process. If it were me, I’d go for the nice solid base hit with Gabbert. (Can you imagine saying that six months ago, “I think the Panthers should play it safe with the number one pick and take Gabbert.”?) Panthers GM Marty Hurney on the other hand is more prone to swinging for the fences.
The Pick: Cam Newton, QB Auburn

2. Denver:
The Broncos are in a good spot. They have to strengthen their defensive line and they have to get younger in the secondary. They will have the freedom to go either way here. There are pictures of Dareus that frighten me. He looks more like a pile of stones than a man. Peterson is an athletic freak. Initially, I thought Dareus was more of a five to ten guy instead of top five, but the more I read about his intense effort and solid character he’s climbed up the ladder. DTs are more bust prone and Dareus has durability flags, but the position priority argument holds here. You can build an air-tight secondary, but it doesn’t do you any good if you can’t at least hold serve in the trenches.
The Pick: Marcell Dareus, DT Alabama

3. Buffalo:
Until early April when everyone realized how hard the Panthers were sniffing around Newton, it seemed like the Auburn QB would be Buffalo bound. There’s an outside shot, Carolina trying to entice the Bills into making an offer, but I don’t think it’s very likely a deal will happen. Everyone is slotting Von Miller here as an instant pass rush injection into the Buffalo defense, but if they draft Miller looking for sacks I think they’ll be disappointed. Let’s pretend the Bills’ decision makers agree. With Newton off the board, do they default to Gabbert? I think they’d opt to roll the dice with their current QB, Ryan Fitzpatrick. Peterson is the guy to watch out for here. Buffalo isn’t shy about ignoring glaring needs in favor of pursuing shiny objects (cough...C.J. Spiller), and if Peterson has anything it’s flash..
The Pick: Patrick Peterson, CB LSU

4. The Cincinnati Bengals:
If Gabbert is still on the board, this is somewhat of a fork-in-the-road pick for the Bengals. Draft a potential franchise QB and start a new era or take one of the elite players in the class and continue the game of chicken with Carson Palmer. Palmer actually isn’t a bad comparison for Gabbert. Imagine if Palmer hadn’t returned for his senior season and you had to guess what kind of player he was going to be. He seems solid. He can make all the throws. By all accounts he’s brimming with character and leadership. I picture Gabbert having a similar career: above average, multiple pro-bowls, never quite in the top tier of QBs. I wouldn’t be upset if they picked Gabbert. It’s better than potentially drifting rudderless for the next five years. It’s just too bad they might have to take the plunge a year or two before they’re ready.

The most common projection for the fourth pick is Georgia wide receiver A.J. Green. Analysts cite WR as one of the Bengals’ top needs under the assumption that the T.Ocho tandem is going to be taking their sideshow elsewhere next year. While I wouldn’t close the book on Chad Johnson’s career in Cincinnati yet, it does seem like bringing in Green would be a nice way to hit the reset button for the receiving corps without a major disruption to the offense. At the same time, if they pass on Green it’s not the end of the world. There may be only two definite first round receiver prospects, but the depth in the second and third rounds is outstanding. Leonard Hankerson (Miami), Tandon Doss (Indiana), Greg Little (North Carolina), Randall Cobb (Kentucky), Jonathan Baldwin (Pittsburgh), Titus Young (Boise State), Torrey Smith (Marylyand), Edmond Gates (Albilene Christian). Big schools, small schools. Tall guys, short guys. Fast guys, quick guys. If they wait, there will be more question marks, but they should be able find whatever type of receiver they are looking for.

What’s the alternative? In this scenario, Patrick Peterson is off the board. The Bengals defensive line coach was seen recently sniffing around Nick Fairley in Alabama. Bringing in a more durable masher to strengthen the interior defensive line and enhance the young pass rushers wouldn’t be a bad option. However, I’m hoping for Von Miller. Yes, I have voiced concerns about Miller, but everyone has him pigeon holed as a 3-4 OLB. I don’t see it. I’m not sure he’s physical enough to square off with OTs one on one, but if you throw him behind a four man line he should be able to hold the point of attack. He’s fast enough to drop into coverage and go sideline to sideline, and he can rush the QB. That considered, strong side linebacker is actually one of the Bengals’ top needs. If they let veteran MLB Dhani Jones walk, they’ll consider shifting Rey Maualuga to the middle in some combination with Roderick Muckleroy. That should be adequate, but they don’t have a great contingency plan for the outside. This defense is prone to giving up big plays against the run. I don’t think that is going to change unless they upgrade the linebacking corps somehow. Maualuga and Keith Rivers/Brandon Johnson make up a solid group, but they will be better players if they’re not asked to be the best linebacker on the field. Miller would upgrade all three positions and provide the x-factor in blitz packages that has been missing.

With Peterson, Miller, Green, Fairley (and even Gabbert) on the board, it almost seems as if the Bengals would be hard-pressed to mess this pick up...which is why I’m predicting they will trade down. I see Washington sitting there at ten and this feels a lot like the Mark Sanchez situation in 2009. You knew he would be there in the five or six range, you didn’t think anyone there would take him, but it just seemed like that’s where he was going to go. Here, you have teams at five, seven, and eight all likely to pull the trigger on Gabbert, and then there’s Washington and Minnesota at 10 and 12 waiting to trade up. It would be an interesting move. They should still have a crack at a pretty good player at 10, and they’d have an extra early second round pick to take their quarterback if he’s there and still tap into the solid crop of second round guard talent. It could work, but I get nervous every time the Bengals try to get cute in the draft (why would we take Steven Jackson when we could trade down and draft Chris Perry?). Regardless, strap in Bengals fans - we’re going for a ride. Washington trades up for Gabbert, and Cincy drops down to number 10. Who will they target? Stay tuned.
The Pick: Blaine Gabbert, QB Missouri

5. Arizona:
With Gabbert swiped right from under their nose, the Cardinals should turn to defense. Analysts will immediately anoint Miller as Arizona’s pass rushing savior. Like I said before, I think Miller would be better off getting rescued by a 4-3 team that can give him better protection and sic him on opposing QB’s more liberally. Despite my edict against drafting 3-4 DE’s early, Nick Fairley would be a better fit here. Having someone with that size/speed combo would be an interesting asset on the edge. Regardless of what this lowly blogger thinks, Miller gets miscast here like Morgan Freeman trying to play Nelson Mandela.
The Pick: Von Miller, OLB Texas A&M

6. Cleveland:
Arizona picks Miller and Cleveland rejoices. Widely considered the third or fourth best player in the class, A.J. Green is a bargain at six. Filling D-line needs is an option, but plugging in a true number one WR is much more beneficial. Their current receivers will be much more effective as WR 2’s and WR 3’s. Colt McCoy will develop faster. Pressure will be relieved off the right side of that o-line. Find a fresh face at RG and/or RT and they’re in business.
The Pick: A.J. Green Georgia

7. San Francisco:
The Niners need a QB and upgrades all over their defense. Peterson is the popular projection but for him to fall to seven would be an upset in my book. Instead San Fran gambles in hopes of hoodwinking a different elite defensive playmaker. Robert Quinn could have been top five but the uncertainty of sitting out a year is enough to drop him to the 49ers.
The Pick: Robert Quinn, OLB/DE North Carolina

8. Tennessee:
I thought they stole Derrick Morgan last year. They could pull another heist if they go with Da’Quan Bowers. However, DT is the bigger need and the off-season hiring of Auburn’s defensive line coach should sway them in a different direction. I’d like to see Miller as a 4-3 LB and Fairley as a 3-4 DE but it looks like I’m going to be disappointed.
The Pick: Nick Fairley, DT Auburn

9. Dallas:
Their secondary was atrocious last year. I don’t know how they stay away from Prince Amukamara, but it looks like they will. OT Tyron Smith had been the popular projection here until recently when talks started to surface of teams wanting to trade up for Julio Jones. I don’t see Jerry Jones trading down. DE would be nice but only if they get a crack at Fairley.
The Pick: Tyron Smith, OT USC

10. Washington: No wait…CINCINNATI!
In this scenario, the Redskins have traded up for their QB and the Bengals are back on the clock. Jones is the most likely choice. Hearing about how he complements his elite receiving skills with aggressive downfield blocking, I get the feeling Marvin Lewis prefers Jones over Green anyway. Besides, you can never have too many top ten draft picks with cracked bones in their feet. If he shakes the durability issues though, ten is great value for Jones. A few minutes of watching him vs. Patrick Peterson in last year’s Alabama/LSU game and I was sold. The guy can get open. Think Roddy White. If Jones is off the board, Bowers or Amukamara would make a decent back-up plan even if they wouldn’t fill as strong of a roster need.
The Pick: Julio Jones, WR Alabama

11. Houston:
With Wade Phillips on board, the Texans are in the market for 3-4 defensive pieces. OLB Aldon Smith will get mentioned, but Amukamara is the best player available. To overtake Indy in the division, they need to beef up a secondary that has annually been one of the worst in the league.
The Pick: Prince Amukamara, CB Nebraska

12. Minnesota:
The Vikings defense has gone stale. What better than a top-five talent, once a candidate for the number one overall pick, to spice things up a bit. Some are predicting Bowers will fall as far as 20 due to concerns with the knee, but I think 12 is his floor.
The Pick: Da’Quan Bowers, DE Clemson

13. Detroit:
The Lions and the draft have a contentious relationship. From epic bust draft picks to the recent blurb in Sports Illustrated on how the Lions sent out an email intended for NFL offices detailing their pre-draft player visit schedule that instead went to the entire league, they’ve had a rough go of it. They would love Amukamara or T. Smith here but with those two gone, I think they’ll look elsewhere position-wise rather than reaching deeper into the CB or OT crops. When you start thinking about the best player available, J.J. Watt comes to mind. He had a monster combine placing near the top for his position in most speed and quickness drills despite weighing in at 290 lbs. He just seems like a player head coach Jim Bates would gravitate towards.
The Pick: J.J. Watt, DE Wisconsin

14. St. Louis:
All hopes of lucking into Julio Jones are gone and the Rams aren’t in a position to squander away picks trying to trade up. Past WR, the Rams should look for upgrades just about everywhere else (besides QB and RB). D-line is still the meat of the value here and coach Steve Spagnuolo knows the importance of being strong up front. I think Muhammad Wilkerson gets the nod. The buzz on him has been cooling and analysts will scratch their heads and wonder if Corey Liuget would have made more sense. In the end, Wilkerson has the higher ceiling.
The Pick: Muhammad Wilkerson, DT Temple

15. Miami:
Despite the predictions of dozens of mock drafts the past few months, people are starting to come to the realization that Miami probably won’t draft Mark Ingram. Without much skill position talent, Miami opts to beef up the o-line. Buoyed by the Pro Bowl campaign last year from his brother, top interior line prospect Mike Pouncey comes off the board here.
The Pick: Mike Pouncey, G/C Florida

16. Jacksonville:
The Jaguars have invested heavily in DEs but have little to show for it. They might as well take another crack at it here. Having played 3-4 DE at Cal., a lot of people slot Cameron Jordan in the same system in the pros. His body looks like it would need to fill in some for that, but he’s built just right to hold down the edge in a 4-3.
The Pick: Cameron Jordan, DE California

17. New England:
In yet another pick where everyone goes, “man why didn’t anyone else take him,” the Patriots could leave us all shaking our heads again here. Aldon Smith is raw but he might be the kind of edge rusher that fills a role that New England has been missing the last few years. The o-line needs new blood, but Smith is too enticing.
The Pick: Aldon Smith, OLB/DE Missouri

18. San Diego:
D-FENSE…D-FENSE…The onslaught continues. This will make 12 out of 18 picks on the defensive side of the ball. The Chargers will mull over a DE here, but they’ll be forced to try to fill the void left by Shawne Merriman’s flameout and Larry English’s lackluster development. Justin Houston is a tweener, but I’m leaning more towards considering him an outside linebacker. I don’t know how much he’ll help in 2011, but the upside is there.
The Pick: Justin Houston, OLB/DE Georgia

19. N.Y. Giants:
The Giants’ linebacker need can’t really be addressed here. DT depth is an option with Liuget still on the board, but if the next tier of OTs last this long, the run starts here. Cracks have formed in their offensive line. If they don’t patch it up now, they might be sorry in a year. Anthony Castonzo isn’t going to dominate the league, but he should develop into a reliable tackle that will fit right in with the Giants’ current crew.
The Pick: Anthony Castonzo, OT Boston College

20. Tampa Bay:
Offensive line could be the sleeper pick in this slot, but they probably opt to continue stocking that defense with young talent. Ryan Kerrigan isn’t the obvious choice but a high-motor guy with a penchant for disrupting offensive flow will be beneficial for the Buccaneers. Raheem Morris will be pleased.
The Pick: Ryan Kerrigan, DE Purdue

21. Kansas City:
The Chiefs are another franchise looking to continue the positive momentum from 2010. This is an opportunity for them to finally finish rebuilding their offensive line. Gabe Carimi should plug into the right side and diversify one of the league’s top rushing attacks.
The Pick: Gabe Carimi, OT Wisconsin

22. Indianapolis:
Injuries depleted their roster on both sides of the ball in 2010, but an erratic offensive line was their true weakness. They’ve had some uncharacteristic draft misses the past few years with o-line picks, but that won’t stop them from taking another crack at it here. Nate Solder has all the physical tools, but will it translate to the field? The back quarter of Peyton Manning’s career will be wasted if they don’t get some stability up front. Solder is worth the gamble.
The Pick: Nate Solder, OT Colorado

23. Philadelphia:
For weeks, analysts have anchored down Jimmy Smith’s draft stock with character concerns. I figured closer to draft time, more and more league scouting opinions would leak and talks of Smith dropping into the second round would go away. Sure enough, a week before the draft all of a sudden 23 is the worst case scenario. He isn’t that much of a drop off from Peterson and Amukamara, and the off the field problems occurred early in his college career. Philly will be lucky if he falls to them.
The Pick: Jimmy Smith, CB Colorado

24. New Orleans:
The Saints have options with this pick if they want to fill their defensive end need, but their cupboard is bare at outside linebacker. Akeem Ayers hasn’t wowed people in workouts, but his on-field production is good enough to warrant taking him here. It reminds me of Atlanta’s Sean Weatherspoon pick last year, and that worked out just fine.
The Pick: Akeem Ayers, OLB UCLA

25. Seattle:
If Seattle is on the clock and the third quarterback hasn’t been taken yet, things could get very interesting in the last eight picks on Thursday night. The Seahawks will get a few phone calls and could certainly take a quarterback themselves. For some reason, I think cooler heads prevail and they opt for a value pick. However, I wouldn’t feel quite right if I predicted Pete Carrol’s pick to be totally logical. They ignore the lineman available and surprise some people with a running back pick.
The Pick: Mark Ingram, RB Alabama

26. Baltimore:
The Ravens are ready to trade back until Liuget falls right into their laps. He drops because he doesn’t seem like a sexy pick, but he is an above average lineman with the versatility to play multiple positions. He is the kind of player that G.M. Ozzie Newsome seems to accumulate.
The Pick: Corey Liuget, DT Illinois

27. Atlanta:
The Falcons need defensive end production and John Abraham isn’t getting any younger. Adrian Clayborn is available because of physical question marks, but the value at a high need position is too much for Atlanta to pass up.
The Pick: Adrian Clayborn, DE Iowa

28. New England:
The Patriots will milk this one to the wire as teams continue to try to trade up. In the end, they need a contingency for the impending Logan Mankins divorce. Danny Watkins is a hard-nosed prospect who leads the solid group of five guards likely to be gone by the end of round 2.
The Pick: Danny Watkins, OG Baylor

29. Chicago:
The Bears are in a tight spot because the offensive line value has dried up and there isn’t another obvious pick for them on the board. Luckily, somebody loves Jake Locker and wants to move up. The Bears can move back ten slots to try to land somebody like Derek Sherrod (Mississippi).
The Pick: Jake Locker, QB Washington

30. N.Y. Jets:
Phil Taylor has been slotted here quite a bit the last few months. The Jets need a monster for the middle of their D, but Taylor just doesn’t seem like a first rounder. If they decide to pass, they’ll still be looking for a new member for their front seven. Brooks Reed has become a hot name the past week. An intense hard-working player with pass rush skills, Reed is a good fit for a defense that had to work too hard last year to generate QB pressure.
The Pick: Brooks Reed, OLB/DE Arizona

31. Pittsburgh:
For the Steelers, the big needs are at O-line and cornerback. Sherrod has been a late riser, but I think it’s finally time for Pittsburgh to take the plunge and use a top pick on a corner. Aaron Williams reminds me of a Pittsburgh corner: nothing flashy, but he gets the job done. If he doesn’t work out, some are projecting he could move to safety.
The Pick: Aaron Williams, CB Texas

32. Green Bay:
The Packers should maintain their receiving corps and look for a backfield weapon, but those needs can wait. They could use a left tackle, but I’m still not biting on Sherrod. Injuries and off the field issues have left them thin at defensive end. They need to maintain a line that can protect Clay Matthews. Cameron Heyward has some injury concerns, but he squeaks into the first round on the strength of his Sugar Bowl performance.
The Pick: Cameron Heyward, DE Ohio State