Tuesday, March 8, 2016

2016 Bengals Free Agency: A Preemptive Public Service Announcement

The Draft is less than two months away and free agency is about to kick off.  It's time to start sizing up what the Bengals' roster is going to look like next season. With significant chunks of the roster set to test free agency waters, 2016 still looks pretty murky. The list of unrestricted free agents doesn't include any franchise players, but  ranging from basically the entire starting secondary, to offensive starters Andre Smith and Marvin Jones, to key role players like Vinny Rey, Wallace Gilberry, Mohamed Sanu, Emmanuel Lamur, Brandon Thompson, and Pat Sims, it is a daunting list none the less.

BE PREPARED.  The Bengals are going to come out of the gate slow like they always do.  They will probably lose multiple players in the first week and not do much to replace them.  Don't jump. Come in off the ledge.  All of the national pundits will be incredulous,
"Cincinnati could be a contender.  They have all kinds of cap space.  They have to step up.  What are they doing?  Their ownership is cheap."

Everyone knows free agency is a slippery slope.  Yet, every year, the teams that slow play it get shamed for not filling needs and the teams that invest heavily generate buzz.  There's a reason Cincinnati has a strong roster with cap space to spare.  They are disciplined.  They almost never chase ascending players that carry a price tag of projected market value.  Sometimes that works, but it's like playing the stock market.  The Bengals tend to stick with paying for known commodities and it has served them well.  When they see a great player, they have no problem paying him like a great player.  They avoid paying good players like they are going to be great players.  They draft for depth so that when someone leaves it is next man up.    Here's how I see it playing out.

Safeties first? Or receivers? Either way, both figure to go quick. Teams looking for WR help are staring at a free agency crop led by... well, Jones followed by players like Travis Benjamin, Anquan Boldin, Sanu, and Rishard Matthews.  If teams don't quench their receiver thirst with veterans, their alternative will be to dip into a mediocre draft class thin on high-end talent.  Sure it would be nice to have Sanu and Jones back, but they will most likely command salaries well above their current market value.  Somebody is going to hit them with an offer they can't refuse and most likely it will happen quickly.

The safeties are in a similar boat.  The safety position is trending up these days and George Iloka figures to ride that wave to a massive payday.  I don't think Reggie Nelson will be far behind. It might take a little longer  He's older than some teams would like, but there are too many shaky secondaries out there for Nelson to last too long.  I'm holding out hope they splurge a little and retain one of these two, but right now I'm assuming both will be gone.  

Andre Smith will sign elsewhere towards the end of the first week along with somebody like Vinny Rey and it will feel like the sky is falling.  Beyond that, I think they have a decent shot at Leon Hall, Gilberry, Lamur, Thompson, and Sims.  The key will be Adam Jones.  If they retain him, they at least have one known entity to build around in the back half of the defense. Heading into the offseason,  I thought the chances of keeping him were pretty good, but now it sounds like he has a few other suitors pursuing him.  He will receive offers, but he wants to stay.  It could go either way.
         
BE PREPARED. When the dust settles, it will feel like the roster is crumbling to the ground.  It isn't.
They'll sign a few stop gap veterans that slip into in weeks 2 and 3 of free agency.  They might even outbid their old pal Zimmer for Adam Jones. They'll draft best player available in April,    
When the footballs start flying in September, if the Bengals' safeties are getting burned constantly, A.J. Green is blanketed with triple teams left and right and no one else can get open; then you can panic.  For now, let the entire offseason play out.  Give this front office the benefit of the doubt.  Given their track record over the last five years, they've earned it.