1 Arizona: Kyler Murray, QB Oklahoma
Even if they weren't trying to implement a college offense this still was the right pick. Murray has shown enough QB instincts and arm talent to justify considering him a prospective top 10 QB in the league. Key word there is prospective. There are no guarantees with prospects, but a player that has a small but realistic chance of achieving high-end QB status has more value than any other player on this draft board. The elite athleticism is just the cherry on top of the sundae.
2 San Francisco: Nick Bosa, DE Ohio State
The injury risk is cause for concern, but I'm not sure how they could have gotten off this pick.
3 N.Y. Jets: Quinnen Williams, DT Alabama
Great college player with great pro potential. If OT Jawaan Taylor wasn't in the mix for health reasons, I think they made the right pick to take the best player available.
4 Oakland: Clelin Ferrell, DE Clemson
The raiders got roasted for this pick. I don't think it's that big of a reach. I thought Ferrell was the second best DE with solid pass rush upside, but a fairly high floor. A lot of people wanted them to take Josh Allen here. To me, Allen is a high-end prospect as a 3-4 OLB, but something about him just screams to me that he's not a good fit for a 4-3 scheme.
5 Tampa Bay: Devin White, LB LSU
I was a little lower on the Devins than most. White has great athleticism. I thought the talent level at LSU gave him a great opportunity to flash that ability, but I'm not sure I saw the instincts to make me think he'll dominate enough as a pro to justify this draft slot. I liked Allen better as a fit for Todd Bowles' defense.
6 N.Y. Giants: Daniel Jones, QB Duke The heat for this pick was relentless. Let's first address the outrage that the Giants used the sixth pick for this selection. The fact is Gettleman found a quarterback he liked and he took him. If he could have waited another 10 or 20 picks, that would have been preferable, but QB is certainly the position where you should quibble with value the least. Disagree with the evaluation if you want, but people get too excited about the fact that it was pick 6.
As far as the evaluation is concerned, consensus is a little off base there too. Frankly as much as people were dogging on Jones, I don't what they were watching when they evaluated him. I don't think he'll be a hall of famer or anything, but I think he has a reasonable chance to be good. He's tough, he's athletic, he showed a good ability to make quick decisions in the pocket, and his arm strength was good enough.
7 Jacksonville: Josh Allen, DE Kentucky
Per above, I'm not sure Allen is the best piece for this defense. Maybe it allows them to become more exotic with there defensive scheme. Maybe it adds passing down depth. Maybe it is Yannick Ngakoue insurance as free agency approaches one of their top pass rushers. All of those things have value, but if that's there intent, it feels a little frivolous at 7 when they have other needs. They're overthinking it. The gap between Allen as a prospect and Hockenson as a prospect wasn't great enough to try to fit 3-4 round peg into their square hole 4-3.
8 Detroit: T.J. Hockenson, TE Iowa There was some un-evolved "Really? Tight end this early?" buzz with this pick. It would have been tough for me to pull the trigger on Hockenson in the top 3, but anywhere from pick 4 on I'm fine with it. A tight end with the potential to develop into a plus blocker and a plus receiver gives an offense a lot of versatility. The easy comp is Gronkowski, but Hockenson's ceiling isn't quite that high. Still, he's a fine top ten pick.
9 Buffalo: Ed Oliver, DT Houston
Contrast this pick with the jaguars pick. Like Jacksonville, Buffalo added a great defensive prospect to their already great defense. Unlike Jascksonville, Buffalo picked a player that plugs into their scheme easily, and they used free agency to put enough bandaids on offensive needs to allow them the luxary of drafting the best player available.
10 Pittsburgh: Devin Bush, LB Michigan
Everyone's in love with this pick. It could turn out great. To be honest, I was a little relieved both LB's were gone before the Bengals picked. I didn't like Bush as much as most. I thought he looked good, but I don't quite see the ceiling that everyone else is projecting. I thought he showed some limitations due to his size, and despite his speed he looked just okay in coverage. They definitely got a good player, but for the price they paid to move into this slot and draft an MLB, he needs to be great.
From a slightly different angle, I liked this pick because I'm pretty sure Cincy would have taken OT at 11 anyway even if Bush were available and hearing everyone whine about how they passed on Devin Bush would have been annoying (although the narrative that Pittsburgh jumped in front of them to steal Bush might be worse).
11 Cincinnati: Jonah Williams, OT Alabama
Again, given the choice of OT's I liked Taylor more, but it seems apparent that red flags knocked him down teams' lists, and Williams is probably the right pick as the safest LT prospect. My desire for them to take an RT now clearly looks a little short-sighted. Cordy Glenn isn't the long-term or even medium-term answer at LT.
12 Green Bay: Rashan Gary, DE Michigan
I don't totally see what the Packers are after here. Gary's athletic profile promises punishing versatility in their front seven, but watching clips of his college games it's just not there. I don't think he can deliver. Why not just draft Brian Burns?
13 Miami: Chistian Wilkins, DT Clemson
Fine. I'm not in love with this pick either. Wilkins is a great college player. Will his playmaking skills translate? Will he hold up against the run?
14 Atlanta: Chris Lindstrom, G Boston College
Lindstrom is a player everyone seems to like. I can't say that I got to watch him too much. This is an okay range to draft a lower value position if you think he's going to be great.
15 Washington: Dwayne Haskins, QB Ohio State
Ugh, no thanks. I've said my piece about Haskins. I don't see a high probability he develops into a reliable starting QB. Murray, I'm pretty confident. Jones, I think there's a chance. Haskins not so much. I'd put the odds he is a top 15 QB at about 1%.
16 Carolina: Brian Burns, OLB Florida State
Burns has a lot of supporters in the draft community. He's great off the snap. He needs to develop the strength to do something once he beats the OT off the line. He seems to have the frame to add bulk. Pretty good pick considering the Panthers are actually randomly switching to a 3-4.
17 N.Y. Giants: Dexter Lawrence, DT Clemson
The Giants got this pick from the Beckham trade and predictably more Gettleman gags ensued. I wonder if Gettleman is laughing as Odell Beckham is rubbing his sore hip, complaining about how he wants to wear a watch while he plays, and probably moans about how he should get paid like a quarterback.
18 Minnesota: Garrett Bradbury, N.C. State
I didn't get too deep watching Bradbury games, but by all accounts this is a great fit for an offense now helmed by Gary Kubiak.
19 Tennessee: Jeffrey Simmons, DT Miss. State
If you had 19 in the pool for how far will a top 15 talent drop who recently tore his ACL and had an off-field assault incident from three years ago..you win! My money was somewhere between 28 and 35. Medical red shirts have such a bad track record I worry this pick doesn't make sense for their roster construction.
20 Denver: Noah Fant, TE Iowa
I loved this pick in the moment. Fant has been a little erratic in preseason, but I remain a believer. I still like his Jimmy Graham potential. Enough rookies have blown up in this era of hyper-focused real-time analysis that people forget it's actually more likely than not that a lot of these players will take a few years to pop.
21 Green Bay: Darnell Savage, S Maryland
Maybe my favorite pick of the first round? Savage swarming to the ball in both pass coverage and run support jumped off the screen watching Maryland's defense last year. If he played at Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, or LSU I'm pretty sure he would have been a top 15 pick.
22 Philadelphia: Andre Dillard, OT Washington State
The storyline about the Eagles jumping in front of Houston to steal Dillard was maybe a little overblown. People are filling in a few too many blanks and counting them as facts for my liking, but it was a nice pick for Philly to potentially find their future LT for the rest of Wentz's career before they actually need him.
23 Houston: Tytus Howard, OT Alabama State
I got nothin' on Tytus Howard. Sorry. Analysts I respect think this was a major reach.
24 Oakland: Josh Jacobs, RB Alabama
This is a great fit, but it feels a little like they were bidding against themselves here. Montez Sweat fell into their laps. If nothing else, take Jacobs at 27 and take advantage of a deep safety class to land somebody else at pick 40 (maybe even Johnathan Abram).
25 Baltimore: Marquise Brown, WR Oklahoma
I would've liked to have seen where Brown would have went without the foot injury. It feels like he slipped though the cracks a little.
26 Washington: Montez Sweat, DE Mississippi State
Nice move by Washington. They totally redeem themselves for the hokey Haskins pick.
27 Oakland: Johnathan Abram, S Miss. State
Raiders take Abram with another culture pick. It's always easier said than done just to say they should have traded down, but it feels like they could have leveraged this pick better to acquire more valuable assets for their roster.
28 L.A. Chargers: Jerry Tillery, DT Notre Dame
Nice blend of value and need for this solid interior D-line force.
29 Seattle: L. J. Collier, DE TCU
This feels like a Seattle pick. They have an arrogance about their evaluations where they take players 20 picks high just to flaunt that they are smarter than you..Their roster is thinning because they haven't hit too much the last few years.
30 N.Y. Giants: Deandre Baker, CB Georgia
Giants trade back in to nab the first CB off the board. I don't quite see enough value here to justify spending resources to trade back in. The early returns haven't been great.
31 Atlanta: Kaleb McGary, OT Washington
I like their approach to carpet bomb their O-line needs. I'm just not sure they got the right player. Cody Ford anyone?
32 New England: N'Keal Harry, WR Arizona State
Yikes did NE miss on another WR pick? Harry looks like a player that has the physicality to succeed in college, but might not have enough juice to translate to the pros. His combine times weren't terrible, but his play speed during his games just looked slow to me. I was terrified they were going to take A.J. Brown or Deebo Samuel here. They seem like perfect fits in their system. Actually, New England had one of those drafts where swapping the first and third round picks totally changes my perception of how they did.. Chase Winnovich in the first and N'Keal Harry in the third and I'm singing their praises. Great job getting a player like Winnovich in the third, but Harry seems like a wasted pick.
