2O21 Week 1 Reactions

Week One takeaways:

Tee Higgins Looks Like a Monster

Could he play tight end? If they get him in the open field he might generate some Marshawn-Lynch-worthy highlights. Let’s make it happen Brian Callahan! Watch him run through that tackle on the first drive of the third quarter. Ooohph. He was on the sideline so he didn’t  break it far, but It’s coming. He is RAC waiting to happen.

D-line Dominance?

It’s going to break my heart when injuries break apart this D-line. I hope we get a chance to see their full potential. Duke Tobin deserves a much healthier portion of the heat that Zac Taylor has taken for what has happened the last two years, but at first glance it looks like he’s been pushing the right buttons with this year’s moves. Hendrickson, Ogunjobi, B.J. Hill. Tobin has it rolling. 

The Minnesota O-line had six holding penalties last week. It’s not like the refs just decided to start calling the holds that occur on every NFL play. The Vikings linemen were having to tackle Bengals defenders to keep them from breaking Kirk Cousins. Cincy blitzed Hilton one play but the DE beat his man and got there first. Whether Ogunjobi, Reader and the boys can control the game like they did last week is one of the top storylines for me in week 2.  Analysts keep harping on how bad the Vikings must be because of how shaky they looked last week. Are we burying the lead here?

Zac Attack

Speaking of Zac Taylor, he has taken criticism for going for it on 4th and 1 on his own 30 and opening the door for the Vikings to get back in the game. That drew a shoulder shrug from me. Everyone agrees NFL coaches should generally be more aggressive than they have been historically. So where’s the cutoff? The 35 yard line? The 40? Okay on the 40, but not good on the 39? Yes, Distance, clock, and score all matter. In this case I think Taylor felt he his team faced a situation where the chance for success on one play (needing to gain one yard) was good, and success on that play would contribute more towards putting a boot on the throat of their opponent than failure would contribute to losing the game. Looking at it in hindsight, I have to say he was right. He got the worst possible outcome (his offense could not gain a yard and his defense wasn’t able to minimize the damage), and his team still had many other opportunities to win the game. If they had been successful at worst they would have run two more minutes off the clock and at best they could have potentially gone up by three scores. If you are a young team/staff that wants to be good they have to figure out how to get a yard when they really need it. Now they have valuable experience to help them execute better the next time and they still won the game. It was worth the risk short term and long term.  

I don’t think Taylor’s seat should be as hot as everyone thinks it is. Ok, he has a bad record in his first two seasons. What does that actually tell us? Taylor is not a magician. How many coaches would have had a significantly higher win total with the same roster?  Is that what we’re looking for here, the second we’re sure the hire can’t pull rabbits out of his butt they should fire him and look for somebody who can? To quote Sam Wyche, C’mon people! “You don’t live in Cleveland!” Constant coaching turnover is a slippery slope as teams have proven over and over. Yes, this coaching staff is cutting their teeth. If that’s not what you want don’t hire a staff with almost no coordinating experience in the top three slots on the staff (HC, DC, and OC).” The Bengals hired Taylor because of his proximity to McVay” might be the most exasperating narrative around. They hired him because they were impressed talking to him and they wanted someone they could make their own and someone that could grow with the team and the city. The media doesn’t seem to get that. Luckily Mike Brown does. Has the team improved each year under Taylor? I don’t want to jinx it too much, but yes. Do the players appear to be buying in to what Taylor is selling? Yes. Ok then, let him make a few mistakes without everyone lining up with torches and pitchforks. Give him a half way decent roster and let’s see what he can do. 

Is this roster going to be the one to give him a fair shake? I have my fingers crossed. I can’t wait until weeks two and three to find out. 

What to Make of the 2021 Bengals Preseason and AFC North Predictions

The wait is finally over! The 2021 NFL season kicked off Thursday night and the rest of the league launches tomorrow.  Here are a few quick Cincinnati-Based preseason takes and my outlook on how i see the AFC North playing out this year:

Gloom and Doom for #1:

Is there anything more overblown than the "Ja'Marr Chase Struggles in the Preseason" saga?  

Let's start with the drops.  He dropped his last four targets and everyone from local media, to national analysts, to fantasy owners everywhere have seized on it like the whole world is chicken little and the biggest acorn in the world just cracked them in the skull. Okay they were mostly catchable balls, but branding them as "red alert, maybe this guy can't catch" miscues is a little agressive.  The first one was a quick slant that Brandon Allen threw a yard behind him.  Another one, Allen led him up the field into tight coverage and the safety was lining him up to take his head off.  Maybe at some point you want him putting his body on the line to make that play, but week 2 of the preseason is not the time to stretch out your body and let the defense take their best shot.  So he made a business decision?? Oh know!! The truth is, I have no idea and it doesn't really matter.  He's been in bubble-wrap-don't-get- hurt mode since January of 2020.  I'm not concerned that his reactions to the extreme chaos of a football play are a little rusty.  He's clearly competitive and dedicated.  It will come.  It might take one game.  It might take 15 games.  But it will come.  The last drop was a wide receiver screen that hit him right in his hands.There was a defender bearing down on him.  He did kind of a funky hop thing that screwed up his timing. He was clearly pressing to make something out of nothing.  But he should have caught it.  And he will.  Just wait.   

The "Chase isn't seperating in practice," rumblings strike a little more of a chord of fear in the bottom of my stomach. It takes me back to the spring when i was rewatching his game tape and i paused for a few moments trying to decide whether to rank him as the top receiver.  He does rely on his physicality to get open.  Is he going to be able to pull that off in the pros?  After mulling it over, I decided yes.  Whatever uptick he'll see in the size and athleticism of the defenders he'll be facing in the NFL he'll be able to match it as his body and rout running develop.  He was already a beast as a 19 year old.  What happens when he really dedicates himself?  It's more of a projection than i would like, but i still believe in it.  Will he be a bust?  No, I don't think that's likely.  Will he be a superstar?  That one is a little murkier.  But from what I've read and heard of his personality and work ethic, I wouldn't bet against him.  

Feisty Defense?

Is the defense good?  Of course injuries are always the biggest wild card here.  Although the team made it through preseason relatively unscathed compared to the prevous two years, they have already lost significant edge depth and their CB2. If D.J. Reader has anything to say about it, the D-line will be fine.  He was a terror in the preseason, consistently disposing of interior blockers and rushing throws from both Tom Brady and Ryan Fitzpatrick.  It would have been nice to see a full season from Joseph Ossai, but don't overrate the loss of him too much.  Sam Hubbard and Trey Hendrickson might surprise you with how well they hold up.  The Bengals routinely took pot shots from media for swapping out Carl Lawson for Hendrickson in free agency based on Lawson's greater potential as a pure pass rusher.  The Bengals took a different approach here.  They are addressing the lack of pass rush production by trying to get better on earlier downs opting for a bigger player with a better injury history.  So far that bet has paid off.    

The secondary appeared to be the strength of the unit early in camp, but Trae Waynes going down quickly hilighted their CB depth is a little shaky.  They're still better than last year, but I think we'll find Waynes is more of a keystone to them consistently performing well than any of us would care to admit.   He needs to come back healthy in week 4. 

I'm optimistic about the young LB's, but i think they'll have some growing pains this year.  

All in all, the defense has more depth and potential than previous years.  The front office has cleared out some of the dead wood and they are in a good position to grow and flourish.  They need to catch a few breaks (or avoid some), but i have high hopes they will make a leap.  

It All Hinges on This:

Did the Bengals do enough to improve the O-line in the offseason?  Most pundits lean towards no. I hedge a little more.  I wish they would have done more.  I think the starting O-line will be good enough with the caveat that Xavier Su'a-filo is still a below average starter that could weigh them down.  Their depth feels like they are one injury away from being back where they were last year.  The second string interior O-line, comprised of three rookies, is going to have ups and downs when they see the field. At OT, i'd feel way better if Hakeem Adeniji was the fourth OT rather than Isaiah Prince, but they might be better off than people think with Fred Johnson as the first man off the bench at both LT and RT.  Johnson was awful when they tried him at guard last year, but whenever i've seen him fill in at OT he has been okay.  If someone really goes down and he has to start double digit games, well maybe then i'm singing a different tune but for now i like him as the primary backup.  Don't rule out D'ante Smith as a long shot to surprise some people if he has to play in a pinch.  They might have struck gold taking Smith on day two of the draft.  He's shown enough in his first camp/preseason to hang your hopes on him as the team's best chance to develop their O-line from being a constant concern to being consistently good within the next two to three seasons.  

It's disappointing Jackson Carman didn't win the LG spot, but all hope is not lost.  In the first preseason game, he didn't look like he'd be sniffing the field any time soon, but after receiving critisim for his work ethic and preparedness early in camp, he responded well and flashed potential in the seond and third games.  I'm still skeptical about his ability to contribute much this year, but there is some chance they decide his athleticism gives them more punch in the run game and he ends up coming through for them.

In the end, like most things in this league, it all comes down to injuries.  

AFC North Predictions:

Pittsburgh 11-6

Baltimore 10-8

Cincinnati 9-8 

Cleveland 7-10

After all of these years of doubting Ben Roethlisberger i've come full circle to believing in one last revival season when everyone else is counting him out.  The offensive skill weapons can rival anyone in the league and the core of a potent defense is still in tact.  

The Ravens have taken more injury lumps in the preseason than anyone.  It's tempting to crater them into a lesser record here, but i still believe in the infrastructure and their potency of Lamar Jackson

  

Cincinnati makes a leap here, but it's really not that big of a jump if you consider what might have been with a full Burrow season last year.  They should have been at 6 or 7 wins last year.  It's to hard to believe a more well-rounded roster in 2021 doesn't get them another win or two.  The home opener against Minnesota was a coming out party for the Carson Palmer / Chad Johnson era once upon a time.  Maybe there will be magic in the air to start the year off?  I've got them at 3-1 against the NFC North and  2-2 against the AFC West. I think they handle the Jets and Jaguars and go 2-4 in the division with wins against the Browns and Ravens.  Overall it will be a positive season, but they'll need to tighten up their division play to really take the next step.  

Cleveland rounds out the division with a disappointing 7-10 record.  They're a little overhyped at this point based on the beliefs that the strength of their offensive line will hold, their talented defense will gel, and that Baker Mayfield will even out his erractic play to guide them back to the playoffs.  I'm betting against all three.