2014 Draft:
Well, it has been a busy year, and I’m sorry to say my
blogging has suffered. That hasn’t
stopped me from keeping my ear to the ground listening for all the latest draft
news. Here’s my attempt to throw together a primer
for everyone on how the first round of this year’s draft might shape up.
As is common, the intrigue in this year’s draft class
centers around the quarterback class.
Heralded as a strong class in the fall, the 2014 QB crop can now best be
characterized by question marks as no one can seem to agree where anyone
belongs in the pecking order with the rest of the players at other
positions. It wasn’t long ago
Bridgewater, Bortles, and Manziel were all locks in the top ten (if not top
five). Now, different outlets have each
player’s stock strewn out all over the first round and some have even dumped
one top QB or another into the second round.
Throw in the fact that five of the top eight teams are desperate for a
signal caller and the first hour of the draft should make for some fine drama. Here’s the dilemma for the Texans: attempt to cure their quarterback woes number
one overall from a QB class no one can seem to agree on or pick the defensive
end some project as a once-in-a-generation talent. It doesn’t appear as if anyone has done enough
to unseat Clowney as the top pick. It’s
not totally clear how they’re going to fit Clowney into recently hired Romeo
Crennel’s defense but it appears as if he is the man at number one.
The Pick: Jadeveon Clowney, DE South Carolina
2. St. Louis
People have consistently suggested throughout the process
that the Rams might trade down. Unless
Houston passes on Clowney, I don’t see anyone jumping up into the number two slot. Staying put, it becomes a debate as to
whether the Rams can exorcise the demons from past failures with the number 2
pick (OT Jason Smith, Baylor). By need
and value they probably should take OT Greg Robinson here. But man, Sammy Watkins ties a bow on their
offensive weaponry that might be too rich to pass up. They’ll talk themselves into being okay as is
with their injury prone OT’s. If there
is some non-Clowney trade up potential here, it lies with Watkins. Some “St. Louis is in love with Johnny
Manziel” talk has surfaced lately, but I think it’s just St. Louis fishing for
a trade partner.
The Pick: Sammy Watkins, WR Clemson
3. Jacksonville
Now is when the QB or not to QB debate really starts. If it were me, I would go Bridgewater, but
the tides have turned and most have Bridgewater getting washed right down the
draft board. The Jaguars opt instead for
a shoe-in fit to coach Gus Bradley’s defensive scheme: Khalil Mack. Taking a Buffalo player in the top five might
seem like a stretch, but most agree he is an elite talent. With rumors swirling that Houston likes Mack
better than Clowney, Mack is actually a dark horse to go number one
overall. I tend to think if Mack ends up
a Texan it will be because Houston found a trade partner and Clowney still ends
up getting selected number one.
The Pick: Khalil Mack, OLB Buffalo
4. Cleveland
A Clowney/Watkins/Mack top three puts Cleveland in a little
bit of a bind. They are definitely
mulling over all QB options. A trade
down might actually be more likely. Most
think OT-needy teams would be happy with any of the top three prospects at the
position, but I think there’s a little separation between Robinson and the rest
of the pack. Someone might pay to
guarantee his services. We’ll say the
buyer is Atlanta here.
The Pick: Greg Robinson, OT Auburn
5. Oakland
(Rumor has it one of my five readers is a Raiders fans so
I’m going to dwell here a bit. He needs
something to cheer him up) Many have bemoaned Oakland’s offseason. They came into the year with an obscene
amount of cap room. Yet they still
played it fairly conservative. They let
a couple of their better players sign elsewhere. They have only really dabbled in free agency
handing out mostly one and two-year contracts to aging veterans or players needing
a fresh start. For arguments sake, let’s
assume that the team’s actions have nothing to do with Davis family needing to
maintain financial flexibility due to concerns about inheritance taxes if the
team should ever officially transfer to Mark Davis. GM Reggie McKenzie has taken quite a bit of
heat for his moves this offseason. It
seems to be “what are they doing? Why
aren’t they spending money?” from just about everywhere. There don’t seem to be too many backers left
in GM Reggie McKenzie’s corner, but I argue there is a legit school of thought
that says he is doing the right thing.
There is no existing cornerstone to build around on the roster. The best blueprint, as has been proven time
and time again, is to build through the draft and use free agency sparingly. Slowly upgrade the overall talent on the
depth chart and attempt to find a few diamonds in the rough to lead the team to
the next level. When you stumble onto
elite players, use your cap room to extend their contracts early. Some would contend building through the draft
also involves making it a priority to resign your own free agents. In other words, why would Oakland allow
promising players like Jared Veldheer (26) and Lamarr Houston (26) walk out the
door? The reality is, this roster isn’t
close. They still have rebuilding ahead
of them. Veldheer and Houston aren’t
cornerstones and they are past the point of being able to be handed contract
extensions early at a discount. Should
that have happened before this offseason? I can’t answer that, but signing them
now at a premium would be throwing good money at bad decisions from the past. It took McKenzie a couple years to exhume the
franchise from all of the dead money floating around out there. In a sense, the demolition took some time and
the rebuilding has only just begun. The
only way to buy time through free agency is to cherry pick declining veterans
with a little bit left in the tank.
That’s what Mackenzie is doing.
The kicker is, barring a surprising season this year McKenzie might not
be around to finish sculpting his roster.
The state of the roster when he took over required a 4 to 6 year plan
and to his credit he has stayed the course.
I just don’t know if he’ll be given the opportunity to finish what he
started. Most are poo poohing
McKenzie’s efforts. I say Kudos to you
McKenzie for not putting your needs ahead of the franchise’s needs. I probably would have tried to sign Valdherr,
but I don’t fault him for passing.
That brings us to the draft.
The little devil Reggie is sitting on one of Mackenzie’s shoulders
saying, “Save your job Reggie! Do
it! Draft Johnny Football! You know you want to. Swing for the fences!”. Angel Reggie is sitting on the other
shoulder, “We need more players Reggie.
Trade down. This draft is
loaded. If nothing else, draft an
OT.”
The Pick: Johnny Manziel, QB Texas A&M (R.I.P. Reggie)
(Quick Manziel take.
I think he’s worth taking a risk on in the top 10. I’m not confident it will work out. He feels less like Favre to me and more like
a rich man’s Mark Sanchez.)
6. Atlanta
Atlanta is allegedly toying with trading up for Clowney
(don’t rule Mack as a target to cure their pass rush woes either). The other large need is OT. If they go OT they could easily stand pat in
the sixth position and snag one of the top three tackles. GM Thomas Dimitroff isn’t one to sit
idle.
In this scenario Cleveland moves back to sixth. They could go Mike Evans. I would go Bridgewater. They end up placing their chips on a
different QB. Blake Bortles seems like a
good compromise for today’s style of QB.
He has size but he also has mobility.
He has shown he can perform in clutch situations. I don’t think the team that takes him will
regret it, but I don’t know if they’ll quite get what they are dreaming Bortles
could be.
The Pick: Blake Bortles, QB Central Florida
7. Tampa Bay
OR Maybe old Reggie Mckenzie isn’t doomed. I’ve got Tampa Bay trading up to claim the
prize in the Johnny Football sweepstakes.
Right or wrong, new coach Lovie Smith has had a year to sit and think
about all the years of great defense he wasted with the Rex Grossman’s of the
world at the helm of his offense. The
Buccaneers move up to five to snatch up Manziel. Oakland trades back and takes an OT. And the little angel Reggie is so happy.
The Pick: Jake Matthews, OT Texas A&M
8. Minnesota
It has been a rough couple of months for the Bridgewater
camp. He used to be a surefire top five
pick. Now, some project him dropping
into the second round. Although it looks
more and more like late round 1 is the most likely outcome, I’m being
stubborn. The knock on Bridgewater is
his arm talent and physical abilities aren’t elite. Yet, he has proven strong in the two most
important characteristics for NFL quarterbacks: pocket presence and
accuracy. Bridgewater is exceptional at
navigating around the pocket amongst traffic.
Manziel bolts at the first sign of trouble and relies too much on his
athleticism to get out of trouble. Carr
sees ghosts and panics too early.
Bortles is somewhere between Bridgewater and the rest of the crop. Analysts keep scoffing at this QB class
insisting that players at other positions offer better value than one of these
“risky” top quarterbacks. I don’t see
it. Competent quarterback play is the
single greatest way to upgrade a roster.
Yes, maybe Mike Evans or Jake Matthews has a better chance of becoming a
good NFL player than Bridgewater, but your how much better do they make your
team? Whatever that multiplier is, it is
at least ten times greater if you are talking about upgrading to a competent
quarterback. Look at what going from
Curtis Painter to Andrew Luck did for the Colts. Granted, none of the quarterback in this
year’s class is Andrew Luck. My point
is, they also aren’t Geno Smith. Ignore
the quarterbacks for better value. Take
a stab at one later. That strategy works
well with the 2013 draft class. This
year, I give the top three guys a greater chance of success than that. There
is some probability that each one of them will be good. Outside of the top four players (selected one
through four above), I think you can afford to gamble if your top quarterback
is named Cassel, Hoyer, Schaub, Henne, or Locker. The media consensus seems to disagree with
me. We’ll see what NFL decision makers
think next week.
The Pick: Teddy Bridgewater, QB Louisville
9. Buffalo
This pick feels like it is going to be an offensive
weapon. There is some talk that Buffalo
is trying to move up for Watkins. Unless
he falls to four, I think they stay put.
They get the choice here between a TE that plays like a WR and a WR that
plays like a TE. Eric Ebron is more of a
gamble based on talent, but he provides a better roster upgrade.
The Pick: Eric Ebron, TE North Carolina
10. Detroit
The Lions are another team rumored to be in trade talks to
chase after Watkins. Whether this pick
ends up being the Rams or the Lions, the outcome should be the same. Big, fast, wide receiver that some have
compared to Jimmy Graham.
The Pick: Mike Evans, WR Texas A&M
11. Tennessee
Tennessee has been projected to take a CB more often than
not in mock drafts this year. I have a
feeling the CB’s are going to slide down to the second half of the round. I’m thinking Tennessee will get some calls from
teams in search of the consensus number three OT in this class. Taylor Lewan is 6’7” tall and typically gets
graded closer to Robinson and Matthews than to any of the other OT’s ranked
below him.
The Pick: Taylor Lewan, OT Michigan
12. New York Giants
The Giants actually could be one of the teams interested in
swapping picks with the Titans in search of Lewan’s services. Instead, they stay put and move to the other
side of the ball. Their defensive line
has been their calling card for at least the last ten years. It’s time to rebuild. Aaron Donald has been a fast riser over the
last few months after impressive showings at the Senior Bowl and during
workouts. He is undersized, but thanks
to Geno Atkins there is now a path for short DT’s to the top half of the first
round.
The Pick: Aaron Donald, DT Pittsburgh
13. St. Louis
The Rams’ offensive line play has held them back the last
few years. They tried to address that in
free agency, but their starting OT’s are injury prone. Zach Martin has all-pro guard potential, but
could be a solid OT fill-in if needed.
His versatility boosts his value.
The Pick: Zack Martin, OT/G Notre Dame
14. Chicago
Aaron Donald would look nice as a Bear, but in the end
Chicago doesn’t manage to trade up in time.
Instead they turn to an even bigger need on their list. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix projects as a free safety
that can cover and hold up vs. the run.
The Pick: Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S Alabama
15. Pittsburgh
The Steelers need a shot in the arm on defense. Their old reliable stalwarts don’t have much
left in the tank and the replacements they’ve drafted over the years have had
only mild success. Cornerback is the
most likely starting point. OT is a need,
as always, but they’ll have to either move up or move down if they want value
in the first round. Don’t rule out a
trade up for Lewan. WR is the other
option where they lost their WR2 and WR4 in free agency. I’m projecting a WR in this slot, but I don’t
think it will be Pittsburgh making the pick.
Odell Beckham Jr. has been one of the hottest names lately, and it’s
beginning to look like he might not even last this long. I’d say San Francisco and Philadelphia are
the two most likely teams to move up.
The Pick: Odell Beckham Jr., WR LSU
16. Dallas
The Cowboys need a starter at about every defensive position
except maybe corner so I’d argue this pick has to be defense. It feels like the Cowboys are going to do
something crazy here, but I’m not really going to try to predict what it
is. Ryan Shazier is about as far as I’m
willing to go. This is the kind of pick
that Dallas makes and everyone says, “Oh.. you’re taking him already?”. And then later Dallas is like, “We only had
ten guys graded out as first rounders in this class and our pick was one of
them,” You know, pretty much the same
thing they said last year when they drafted Travis Frederick in the first. Shazier has people drooling over his
athleticism and they think he has pass-rush potential. Yet, if I weren’t projecting him to Dallas, I
would have slotted him to San Diego nine picks later.
The Pick: Ryan Shazier, LB Ohio State
17. Baltimore
I think this is where teams start getting jittery about
trading up for the leftovers at quarterback.
If QB needy teams don’t take a
quarterback in the top ten, I could see them hoping Bridgewater goes on the
colossal slide everyone is predicting. Minnesota
spoils their plans and then they have to sit there and think about it for an
hour or two until it becomes viable to trade up. A lot of people have Baltimore taking safety
Calvin Pryor here. Instead, they jump on the opportunity to trade back and take
Deone Bucannon (Safety Washington St) early in the second.
The Pick: Derek Carr, QB Fresno State
18. New York
Jets
This is one of those picks that seems to look the same in a
lot of mock drafts. The Jets have built
a pretty highly talented defense. They
still need more weapons on offense.
Brandin Cooks has the kind of speed they need to go with the newly
signed free agent Eric Decker. I liken Cooks
to a Randal Cobb type of receiver.
The Pick: Brandin Cooks, WR Oregon State
19. Miami
I have Miami trading up for Lewan. Tennessee moves back and snags a toy for new
defensive coordinator Ray Horton’s 3-4 defense.
Anthony Barr has been a fairly polarizing prospect throughout this
process. Some have him top ten. Some have him as a late first rounder. An offensive player converted to OLB at UCLA,
he needs some development but his burst at the snap is his strength. Some say he is a one-trick-pony. More than likely some team out there will see
the athleticism combined with the inexperience and draft him in this slot or higher
with startling fantasies of what they might be able to transform him into. Even if Miami doesn’t trade up, Barr might
still be an option here.
20. Arizona
Some say quarterback is an option here. This might be a flash point of the first
round where teams waiting for a QB might think they need to trade ahead of the
Cardinals to get their man. I have
Arizona going a different direction here.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins has had off-the-field troubles and couldn’t work
out much at the combine due to injury.
He was recently cleared and had a dazzling pro day. Now his name is sparkling its way into mock
drafts everywhere. If Arizona passes, New
England seems like an obvious landing spot for him.
The Pick: Austin Seferian-Jenkins
21. Green Bay
The Packers are up and my subconscious quest to create a
scenario where Pryor falls to 24 ends.
Pryor still has his supporters that consider him a top 15 player, but I
think his value is settling in closer to the 18 to 25 range. Pryor is small, but he is known for hard
hitting and toughness. The flurry of teams in that range that need a safety
along with the revelation of how important safeties are to Seattle’s defense
make it tricky for Pryor to slide to Cincy.
I still think it’s possible.
22. Philadelphia
Fresh off lopping top receiving weapon, DeSean Jackson, off
their roster, it’s hard to imagine the Eagles proceeding through this first
round without adding a WR to build around.
Chip Kelly is a wizard. He needs
a dove up his sleeve. They have some
stop gaps in place, but receivers take time to develop. It makes sense to get a couple in the
pipeline now. Cornerback looks like the
second highest need, and if they stay put, they’ll be looking at strong value
in this part of the round. They are a
trade up contender for Beckham or they could stay put for Marquise Lee, Cody
Latimer , or take the top corner off the board.
Latimer feels like a Chip Kelly pick.
The Pick: Cody Latimer, WR Indiana
23. Kansas City
Forced to let a variety of quality players go in free
agency, the Chiefs have holes on the offensive line and are still looking for
stability at WR to compliment or replace Dwayne Bowe. Meanwhile, one of the only MLB’s in the class
that can hold up vs. the run and in pass coverage has fallen. This is the point in the first round where
everyone realizes there is a little bubble of eight or so prospects that no one
thought would be available at this point.
Past 20, the price to trade up drops off and all of a sudden the deck
chairs start shuffling. K.C.’s need
isn’t as big at LB, but Denver is lurking below. A trade within the division might seem
awkward, but everybody has a price.
The Pick: C.J. Mosley, LB Alabama
24. Cincinnati
Here it is! Pick 24.
If you skipped the first seven pages of this monstrosity (I saw that
Phil! Shame on you) to find out who I think the Bengals will end up with
tomorrow night, here are the highlights of what has gone down so far that are
most relevant to this pick:
No
cornerbacks are off the board.
The top four
quarterbacks are gone.
Both of the
top two safeties are gone.
Clowney is
the only DE gone.
Barr and
Shazier are both gone.
No guards
are gone.
Needs:
The Bengals enter the draft still in a position of
strength. They aren’t looking to fill
glaring needs. They can lean towards
value. They can draft players to insert into
the pipeline to eventually replace starters.
Opportunities to plug in rookies as starters are limited. Here is how I would rank their positions of
need:
LG: It still bothers me they didn’t pony up for Anthony
Collins in free agency. The LT position
would stay stable for another five years or so and they could leave Whitworth
at G, where he is elite, for as long as he is still a good player. Now, Clint Boling is coming off a season
ending injury, and there are a few swing options behind him
OLB: Who is going to
start at strong side LB? They have some
options, but could use an upgrade.
Safety: The Daniel
Manning signing bumps this down. How
much do they like George IIoka? Elite safeties can be drafted in this range.
CB: Probably the most
common position for Cincy in mock drafts.
The reliable veterans are getting older and Dre Kirkpatrick hasn’t
proven he is starting caliber yet.
OT: Do they consider anyone on the roster capable of filling
Collins’ swing tackle role?
DE is an option (and another popular mock draft position),
but if you draft one high, they have to be prepared to part ways with locker
room leader, Robert Geathers.
QB could be upgraded, but Dalton has earned one more year to
try to turn the corner.
From Need to Draft Board:
First off, I kind of like how this is playing out. Looking at mock drafts, there seems to be a
plateau of talent right around the 20 range where I would say, if you get one
of the top 20 guys at 24, they are getting great value. Then there are another 15 players that would
represent solid value that you could live with.
Typically, there are more surprise picks in the actual draft than there
are in mock drafts, which pushes the plateau down the board a little. That plateau at 20 is probably going to be
closer to 25. Here’s how the draft board breaks down. I’ll go in reverse order from the needs list.
QB:
There isn’t much to say about quarterback other than, yes I
think they should take one. It should
probably be a fourth rounder. Some
rumors have surfaced the Bengals are interested in Bridgewater. If he falls, I would
take him. His lack of elite arm talent
seems like he would be Andy Dalton 2.0.
I disagree. That is a little bit
of a stretch. Bridgewater has average
arm strength. Dalton’s is below
average. It’s tough because Dalton has
played admirably and still has potential.
In the end you’re talking about going from a B- quarterback with B+
potential to a B quarterback with A potential.
I think they’d be better in the long run.
DE
Kony Ealy and Dee Ford have been mock draft regulars in the
24 slot. I think Ealy is a second rounder. I like Ford even though he is shorter than
their normal DE’s. Can he play strong
side linebacker?
OT
They are looking for a backup and the heir apparent at
LT. This isn’t the pick to do it
with.
S
Clinton-Dix will be gone.
Pryor has been projected to be gone in almost every mock draft I’ve
seen, but there’s an outside shot he’ll be there. I’m not convinced they’d take him even though
his skill set seems like a perfect fit.
I wouldn’t be upset with Deone Bucannon
in the first or Jimmie Ward in the second.
OLBS
Shazier would be about the only guy I would suggest. Mosely is more of a middle linebacker. If he managed to fall to 24, I would be a
proponent of drafting him and moving Maualuga back to strong side. You have to give Mosely the obligatory caveat
that seems to come with all Alabama players these days, “if the medical checks
out, I’d take him”, but other than that he would be an upgrade in the
middle.
CB
Okay, I confess.
Running through my above needs list in reverse order, I skipped cornerback
because that’s my final destination point.
I will preface this discussion by saying this scenario where all four
cornerbacks fall to 24 is fairly unique.
Most mock drafts have at least two of them going in the top 15. Usually it is Gilbert and Dennard, and some
have even started moving Fuller up in that range too. I don’t think it is a sure thing they all
go that high. All three are about the
same size. Gilbert is the best athlete
but has some reputation of playing too soft and giving up too much
cushion. Dennard is known for being a
good physical press corner with a little bit of weakness in his ball
skills. Fuller is somewhere in between. The fourth guy, Verrett might be the best
blend of toughness and athleticism of the four, but he will likely drop further
because he is 5’9”. I would be happy
with any of the four. Dennard sounds an
awfully lot like Leon Hall, and in general he feels like a Marvin Lewis pick.
The Pick: Darqueze Dennard, CB Michigan State
The Chargers’ offense was revitalized in 2013, but the
defense was another story. The biggest
sore spot is cornerback. Fortunately,
the guy many project as the top in the class is still on the board. Gilbert is probably the best athlete of the
group, but he has a little bit of a reputation for not being physical
enough. Still, the talent is well worth
the pick.
The Pick: Justin Gilbert, CB Oklahoma State
26. Cleveland
The Browns are up, and I’m saying they already have their
quarterback. Kyle Fuller is a little bit
of a late riser. For a while he was a
fringe first rounder, but I have a feeling he might go higher as the first CB
off the board. Actually, I almost slotted
him to Pittsburgh at 15 straight up.
The Pick: Kyle Fuller, CB Virginia Tech
27. New Orleans
Defensive end was one source of the Saints’ cap casualties
this offseason, and I think they might draft DC Rob Ryan a replacement in this
slot. Stephon Tuitt has been slowed by
injury throughout the pre-draft process, but somebody will jump at the chance
to draft a 300 lb. defensive end.
Keeping him motivated will be the key.
The Pick: Stephon Tuitt, DE Notre Dame
28. Carolina
There have been endless comments about Carolina’s depleted
WR corps. Fans will drool that Marqise
Lee has fallen right into their laps, but Lee once again falls victim to the
depth at his position in this class.
There will be more WR’s to take later, but the drop off at OT by the time
the Panthers pick next will be significant.
“If they are comfortable with the medical”…
The Pick: Cyrus Kouandjio, OT Alabama
29. New England
The Patriots probably won’t take a WR here. They don’t have much luck drafting
receivers. They probably won’t take a
corner. They don’t have much luck drafting
corners. Actually, are the Patriots good
at drafting anything? They have a good
reputation, but it feels like they whiff more often than not. Their lack of defensive line depth showed
last year when multiple starters went down.
They seize the opportunity here to upgrade their talent at DT. Ra’Shede Hageman is a top 15 talent who runs
hot and cold. New England should be a
good spot for him to meet his potential.
The Pick: Ra’Shede Hageman, DT Minnesota
The 49ers made the big leap up the board for to snag
Beckham, and Pittsburgh is delighted to see one of the top corners still on the
board. Jason Verrett has drawn some
Antoine Winfield comparisons.
The Pick: Jason Verrett, CB TCU
31. Denver
I’ve got Denver trading up for their MLB, but staying put
for reinforcements along the offensive line also wouldn’t be a bad idea. I think the Chiefs will look at guard and
WR. Andy Reid adds a weapon for his
offense.
The Pick: Marqise Lee, WR USC
32. Seattle
Finally, a pick where I didn’t predict a trade! Seattle could go a few different directions
here. I really like Jason Verrett. I tried hard to find a spot for him, but he
ended up getting bumped by the late surge for Bucannon. Wouldn’t it be funny though if Seattle took
Verrett? The team that triggered this
league-wide hunger for mutant 6’2” cornerbacks smiles as they hand in the card
to take a 5’9” CB. It would be
fantastic. Mel Kiper’s head might pop
off. Anyway, I don’t think it will
happen. To me, the Seahawks have to take
the best offensive lineman on their board.
The Pick: Xavier Su’a-Filo, G UCLA
That’s a wrap. Happy
Draftday Eve. There are some pretty
juicy names left on the board. I can’t
wait for the second round.
