1.
Jacksonville
This is the
most uncertainty with the number pick that I can remember in a while. The Jaguars would love to move down and
acquire more assets, but there just isn’t incentive for anyone to come up and
get this pick. Aidan Hutchinson is the
best bet of the top tier players in this class.
He is capable of ascending into that rare group of pass rushers that can
generate their own opportunities. He isn’t quite as talented as someone like
Myles Garrett or T.J. Watt, but the next tier down is in play kind of on the
Joey Bosa level.
The Pick:
Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan
2. Detroit
The Lions
just need talent. A trade down isn’t
likely in the cards. O-Line is relatively set and they’re not ready to tie
themselves to a QB yet so they go defense.
The buzz is Travon Walker might go number 1 in which case Detroit would
sprint to the podium to keep Hutchinson in the state of Michigan. In this scenario Jacksonville comes to their
senses. Detroit is left looking for other kneecap biters and they turn to
Walker. People are projecting great
things for this guy. For the life of me,
I'm not sure what they're looking at. Watching his footage I kept waiting and
waiting for him to do something interesting. It took me three games to finally
find him getting some edge pressure. I’m
lucky I didn’t fall asleep and miss it.
He holds his ground.. A LOT. He
can win around the edge but it seems to only come when the opposing line is
overmatched. I get the idea that some of it may be scheme driven, but he still
had plenty of rush opportunities where he just didn’t beat his man. I see him as a 3-4 DE and i'm not sure why
you'd take that position early in round 1.
The value just doesn't add up.
The Pick:
Travon Walker, DE, Georgia
3. Houston
It’s a long
road ahead for the Texans and they’re just looking to stockpile talent. With his tall frame and silky smooth movement
skills, Ahmad Gardner should translate into a defender that can match up with
just about anyone.
The Pick:
Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
4. New York
Jets
The sun
rises, the sky is blue, and the Jets need edge talent. Jermaine Johnson will get the chance to break
the curse. He’s a beast. I’ve never seen a guy strike an offensive
tackle and spin him like a top. The RT
from Miami, he believes.
The Pick:
Jermaine Johnson, EDGE, Florida State
5. New York
Giants TRADE to New Orleans
This seems a
little telegraphed, but the Saints invested future capital to acquire
ammunition this year which probably means they have their eye on somebody. Other QB needy teams sit waiting at 6, 8, and
9 and the Giants capitalize.
The Pick:
Malik Willis, QB, Liberty
6. Carolina
Carolina’s
owner is a Pitt booster and the buzz is they might just grab Kenny Pickett
here. I think they play chicken and see
if they can land him on day 2. Instead
they grab someone to block for him. I’m
not wild about Neal this high, but I’ve come around on ranking him as the top
OT in this class. His big hulking frame
is just too much for rushers to deal with.
I’d still say he’d probably be the third or fourth best OT in a lot of
classes, but in this draft with Carolina’s need it makes sense to take him
here. There was a story that Neal might
fall due to his medicals. It’s not clear
what the issue is or if that report is real, but keep an eye on that.
The Pick:
Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
7. New York
Giants (from Chicago)
The Giants
will give Daniel Jones one more chance.
Kayvon Thibodeaux was once considered a candidate to go number 1 before
falling victim to the obligatory, “Does he love football enough?” storyline
that seems to bubble up every year. He’s
not as consistent as Hutchinson, but he still has the ability to force the
issue attacking the quarterback. The Giants make out like bandits here.
The Pick:
Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregon
8. Atlanta
The Falcons
skill position talent well is about as dry as it gets. Pair Jameson Williams with Kyle Pitts and all
of a sudden they have something cooking.
Williams’ tore his ACL in January, but that shouldn’t bother the Falcons
too much and might actually be ideal for them as they try to position
themselves for QB talent next year.
The Pick:
Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
9. Seattle
The Seahawks
currently have Stone Forsythe and Jake Curhan at the top of the OT depth
chart. Charles Cross isn’t quite as big
as Neal, but he gets similar results.
Solid. Steady.
The Pick:
Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
10. New York
Jets
It might be
a little bittersweet for the Jets to take another safety high in the first
round. Kyle Hamilton has the kind of
versatility that might make it worth it.
6’4” 220 lbs. safeties with range for days don’t grow on trees.
The Pick:
Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
11.
Washington
Washington
has invested a lot of resources in the defense the past few years. It’s time for some maintenance on the
offensive line. Ikem Ekwonu isn’t my
favorite prospect, but some have him going as high as number 1 overall. He looks like an elite O-lineman. He moves like an elite O-lineman. But he has enough lapses pass blocking that
I’m a little worried how he’s going to translate. He needs to be a little more patient. He seems to strike too early and lose his
power and balance.
The Pick:
Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State
12.
Minnesota
Ironically,
Mike Zimmer is gone and the Vikings finally snag a high end CB prospect. Zimmer was notorious for squeezing talent out
of DB’s. Imagine what he would have done
with this guy. Stingley is ultra
talented, but he sort of Looks bored in his 2021 footage. Maybe he had too much success too early as a
true freshman on that 2019 team? I'm
interested to see if he refocuses and reinvigorates himself with the new
challenge of playing at the next level.
The Pick:
Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU
13. Houston
(from Cleveland)
Houston
already landed the top CB. Now they grab
Mike Evans Jr. Drake London is big and
strong, but moves like someone 5” shorter.
The Pick:
Drake London, WR, USC
14.
Baltimore
Big nose
tackle that moves like someone 40 lbs. lighter.
Defies the laws of physics. Of
course this guy falls to Baltimore. What
a nightmare.
The Pick: Jordan
Davis, IDL, Georgia
15.
Philadelphia
The Eagles
have a lot of assets to upgrade their talent level and they kick it off here
with a big fast playmaker for the middle of their defense. Devin Lloyd could be a culture changer.
The Pick:
Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah
16. New
Orleans (from Indianapolis through Philadelphia) TRADE to New York Giants
The Giants
go a similar rout. Nakobe Dean isn’t as
big as Lloyd, but he’s just as explosive.
He can cover. He can rush. He can come downhill and knife to the ball
carrier. Dean might be the prototypical
modern linebacker.
The Pick:
Nakobe Dean, LB, Georgia
17. Los
Angeles Chargers
Keenan Allen
has some prime left, but with a franchise quarterback in the fold the Chargers
need to reload on skill position talent.
Olave’s hands are a little inconsistent, but his blend of speed and
route running could push him a little higher on the board even.
The Pick:
Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
18.
Philadelphia (from New Orleans)
The Eagles
take another crack at WR and the Ohio State WR’s go back to back. Wilson isn’t quite as polished as Olave, but
he might have more upside. I’m not sure
if he turns into a WR1, but lining him up opposite DeVonta Smith might set him
up perfectly to maximize his potential.
The Pick:
Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State
19. New
Orleans (from Philadelphia) TRADE to New York Giants
The Giants
continue to check off needs adding a third talented defender for their new head
coach. Booth Jr. was a little too
talented to evaluate. I didn’t see him
get challenged much so it’s tricky to figure out how he projects, but he
certainly flashed enough to take him here.
The Pick:
Andrew Booth Jr., CB, Clemson
20.
Pittsburgh
Bearcat/Bengals
fans worst nightmare. Mike Tomlin has
been circling Desmond Ridder for months.
I like Ridder as a leader, but I’m curious if he can reign himself in
10% to steady out his play a little and cut down on mistakes.
The Pick:
Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati
21. New
England
The Patriots
let their star corner walk and attempt to bring in the next one.
The Pick:
Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington
22. Green
Bay (from Las Vegas)
The Packers
are retooling their pass rush. They have
squeezed more production out of Rashan Gary than I could have imagined. Now they add another big DE for their
arsenal.
The Pick:
George Karlaftis, DE, Purdue
23. Arizona
The
Cardinals have been weak up the middle for a few seasons. They’ve tried to patch it through free
agency, but it hasn’t really worked.
Zion Johnson is going to dominate, but he should stabilize things a bit.
The Pick:
Zion Johnson, G, Boston College
24. Dallas
The Cowboys
once vaunted offensive line is in desperate need of retooling. Trevor Penning is tough with mean streak
regularly on display. He fights his man
to the ground and then attacks them again on his hands and knees. In the games I watched, he held up well against
Iowa St. North Dakota State roughed him
up a bit. Sothern Illinois too. It’s hard to take him early if he's not
going to dominate that level of competition.
Others have him more highly rated than I do.
The Pick:
Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
25. Buffalo
The Bills
signed Mitch Morse to play center, but they can’t resist the top C in the
class. Linderbaum didn’t do athletic
testing but he flashes plenty of athleticism on tape. Short arms and size hold him back from going
a little higher, but it doesn’t seem to hinder him watching him play.
The Pick:
Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa
26.
Tennessee
The run on
O-line continues. Kenyon Green is
another guy I didn’t like as much as consensus.
He’s like the IOL version of Ekwonu.
Looks like a dominate NFL linemen, but inconsistent pass blocking gives
me pause.
The Pick:
Kenyon Green, G, Texas A&M
27. Tampa
Bay
The
Buccaneers retool from free agency losses.
This safety class is flush with athletic strong safeties that can
cover. It will be interesting to see how
they come off the board. Is Cine propped
up a little bit playing behind that Georgia defensive front? I think life was easy for him, he’s talented
enough to adapt and excel.
The Pick:
Lewis Cine, S, Georgia
28. Green
Bay
Aaron
Rodgers finally gets his Rd 1 receiver!
The Pick:
Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
29. Kansas
City (from San Francisco through Miami)
The Chiefs
are also in the process of retooling their WR corps, but instead they opt to
beef up their defense. Elam mirrors well
and has impressive long speed. I saw him
take an angle and chase down multiple routes/ball carriers who had a head start
on him. He got dinged up against Alabama, but stayed in the game gimpy and
didn’t get picked to death.
The Pick:
Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida
30. Kansas
City
More cheap
D-talent for the K.C. Mafe is a little
stiff, but he gives RT’s fits with his lower body girth and power.
The Pick:
Boye Mafe, DE, Minnesota
31.
Cincinnati
Alright Bengals fans. We’re in uncharted territory here. Assessing options at 31 is WAY harder than 5.
Let’s start with needs.
1. Left Guard
It sounds like the Bengals are open to drafting into this slot, but they’re just as happy letting Jackson Carman, Akeem Adeniji, and Trey Hill duke it our for the starters slot. I’m not ready to give up on Carman either, but hopefully they look at bringing back Quinton Spain as a safety net. My preference would be to go all in on the offense. Do both. Draft IOL early, let Carman and Adeniji fight for G2, and bring Spain in as plan C.
At 31 there aren’t too many avenues to go this rout. Linderbaum is their best bet allowing them to slide Karas into guard. Zion Johnson should work. Most are drooling of Kenyon Green, but as I mentioned above that would be pretty disappointing. Regardless none are options in this mock.
2. OT3
Most people would say CB or DT here but I’m not having it. That doesn’t necessarily mean you address it at pick 31, they should be actively looking to upgrade the Isaiah Prince roster spot. If Riley Reif is healthy and open to that role, great. Maybe that buys enough time until they figure out what they have with D’ante Smith. Let’s avoid being one or two injuries away from the world where we felt like win or lose each game was a moral victory if Burrow didn’t leave on a cart. If we stay away from that , people are underestimating the ceiling here. I don’t want to hear about pass rush. If you’re up by 20 points, Joe Burrow is your pass rush. Yes the AFC has loaded up. Keep that offensive line solid and it won’t matter. Just watch.
They won’t pick an OT here and even I admit if they add an OT, they should wait a round or two.
3. CB2
Corner is probably 1 or 2 on most peoples’ wish list. Apple should be the third corner at worst and they don’t have much behind him. Elam and Booth should be the targets and I go back and forth on Kyler Gordon but I’d be okay with him if that’s what they decide.
4. DT
There isn’t really any depth behind B.J. Hill . Converting a tweener like Logan Hall has been discussed, but that seems risky this early. Devonte Wyatt has the measurables. He just doesn’t quite have the production upside from what I saw. I’d prefer DeMarvin Leal. Maybe they can sneak him into the second round.
5.S
The starting safeties are good, but who knows where the Jessie Bates contract dispute is going and Vonn Bell is heading into a contract year. The value at this spot figures to be a little stronger than other positions. Vine is gone but Brisker, Pitre are still available. But my man is Daxton Hill. Michigan played him almost in a slot role. He struggles a little 1:1 with high end receivers but dial that load back a little and you have a nasty weapon for 3 safety looks. Walk him around a little. Bring him off the edge. Keep him in the middle and let him chase to the ball. He doesn’t have quite as much physicality as some of the other guys but he still packs a punch and does a better CB impersonation than they do. He’ll replace the retired Ricardo Allen and serve as insurance if they lose Bates or Mike Hilton. Overall he just gives Lou Anarumo another dimension to work with.
The Pick:
Daxton Hill, S, Michigan
32. Detroit
(from Los Angeles Rams)
The Lions go
back to the Georgia well. Wyatt blends
strength and penetration skills well. As
with Cine, I wonder how much Alabama effect is going on with this defense (the
overall quality of the line masks each player's individual quality)? How good
are they really?
The Pick:
Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia
