The Past
Another Bengals' season is in the books. It's time to reflect
for a minute or two and then start prognosticating on the prospects of next
season. I'll overview the year, talk Andy Dalton, get into team needs for 2013,
and preview a few names to track throughout draft season. The offseason is just
gearing up. Let's dig in.
There were some positive signs in 2012 for the orange and
black, but in the end the season ended the same as it did last year. With
another loss to the Texans in the wild card round of the playoffs, there's a
tendency to interpret the duplicate result as a lack of progress. Taking a
closer look at it I'd say not so fast. There are a lot of cyclical trends in
the NFL. Roster restrictions, salary cap, and free agency are constantly plucking
away each team’s depth while injuries sap talent off the top end of the roster.
Teams that stay healthy usually have more success. By shear probability, teams
that manage to dodge the injury bug one year tend to pay the piper the next. The
end result is a tendency for teams to yo-yo back and forth between good seasons
and bad. Sticking around as a top 12 team in back to back years is a pretty
nice accomplishment. You either have to be really lucky or have a well-rounded
roster and a good front office capable of patching things back together each
offseason. Back to back playoff seasons is a very positive sign for Cincinnati
that bucks their trend over the last ten years of one step forward two steps
back. The roster is maturing and is as strong as it has been in years (it is a
good sign that it feels like I’ve said this the last few offseasons).
Regardless, I would argue the 2012 season was not the same as
2011. Yes, they lost to the same team in the same building to end the
year, but the loss didn't feel the same. Last year it felt like they cracked
under playoff pressure. This year the game-plan and execution fell short, but
the team still hung around all game and were an arm’s length away from taking the
lead in the final three minutes of the game. A loss is a loss but it is important
that the stage didn’t feel too big for the Bengals this year.
How about the regular season? Last year, I lamented the lack
of wins against quality competition. This year, they weren't exactly knocking
off juggernauts but progress was evident. The schedule got tougher but the
record stayed about the same. With the blowout against the Giants and the
shootout in Washington, they notched two wins against teams with winning
records (Baltimore in week 17 doesn't count. They weren't trying) and won a
third against an 8-8 Pittsburgh team. It's not a thunderous declaration they
can contend, but they’re closer. The stage is set. Is 2013 the year they make
the leap? Let's take a look.
The Present
The story that tends to dwarf everything else is whether
Andy Dalton is good enough to take the team to the promised land. Short answer:
yes. Everyone is so fixated on the unprecedented early success of Cam Newton, Andrew
Luck, Robert Griffin III, and Russell Wilson that they forget the QB career path
of starting out in the middle of the pack and improving a little bit year to
year. Look at Drew Brees' progression. It's a different league now but Dalton's
numbers are slightly better in years one and two. Unless Sean Peyton ditches
his head coaching gig to become the Bengals’ offensive coordinator, I don't
expect Dalton to become Brees, but let’s give him another year before we decide
how good he might become. He needs to improve the deep ball and his decision
making got a little skiddish on the back half on the schedule. Still, he's good
enough. If someone as one dimensional as Joe Flacco can do it, then Dalton is
plenty capable.
So how does the rest of the roster look? I think they are
one more successful offseason away from taking things to the next level. It's
going to be a challenge. Around half of the roster is heading into some kind of
free agency and they need to keep swinging steady on draft day, but the
framework is there. Their defensive line is one of the best in the league. DE Michael
Johnson is a key free agent, but they might take care of him with the Justin
Smith strategy (franchise tag for a year or two and try to bring in a suitable
replacement in the meantime). The entire linebacking corps outside of last year's
undrafted rookies Vontaze Burfict and Emmanuel Lamur, is heading into free agency.
Regardless whether they bring anyone back, the Bengals have to get better play
out of this group. Rey Maualuga impressed me shedding blocks in run defense,
but he’s just not good enough in coverage. Burfict was a pleasant surprise, but
he's now he’s had some success. If he has another good year he'll start to
wonder whether his performance should match his paycheck. Can he keep his head
on straight? I'm not saying he can't, I just caution getting too comfortable
penciling him in as a reliable starter. The secondary overachieved last year.
Hopefully they can bring back at least one of their veterans in Adam Jones, Terrance
Newman, or Nate Clements and get some contribution out of Jason Allen and Dre
Kirkpatrick. Safety is another area that has to get better. Overall, there are
some holes to plug, but it should just be minor fixes to sustain what is
already a good unit. If they keep the band together on the defensive line and
strike gold at linebacker, they could transform from good to great.
The offense had its moments last year. Early in the season
they were making more big plays and converting more long-yardage situations,
but by the end of the year they slowed down. The red zone offense started to
get hot but wasn't the same after the Mohamed Sanu injury. The offensive line
is still in pretty good shape although they underperformed last year. Injuries
took out a starting guard and center before the year started and the young
guards had some growing pains as the season went along. On the bright side, the
fill-ins gained experience and the injured players should all be back next
year. The key will be the pending free agency of Andre Smith. Their offensive
weapons looked good for the most part, but it felt like they could use one or
two more pieces. Hold that thought. The key will be to mostly hold serve in free
agency bringing back as many guys as possible and replacing departures with rough
equivalents. That brings us to the fun part. It’s draft season, baby!
The Future:
The 2013 draft class is short on elite talent, but heavy on
depth. The strength of the first round is at offensive and defensive line and
the tops of the QB, RB, and WR crops are relatively thin. Most pundits consider
Texas A & M offensive tackle Luke Joeckel to be the top candidate for the
number one overall pick by default, but nobody is sure if he’ll fit into Kansas
City’s roster plans. The most intriguing story (other than hearing what brash
interview questions get lobbed at Manti Te’o at the combine) revolves around
which quarterbacks will be able work their way into the first round. Based on talent probably no more than one
should come off the board, but when push comes to shove don’t be surprised to
see three or four. With the most depth by far, expect at least seven defensive
tackles in the first round. Past the first round is where this draft class
really shines. A lot of players taken on day two of this draft will become
high-end players in the league, and there is a little bit of something for
everybody. Small receivers. Big
receivers. Possession receivers. Speed receivers. Small running backs. Big
running backs. Medium-sized running backs.
Big, hulking 350 lb. linemen. Smaller,
quicker 290 lb. linemen. It’s like an all-you-can-eat buffet. So what does it
all mean for Cincinnati? That sound you hear is the Bengals front office
licking their chops because I’m not sure this could have played out any better.
With three picks in the 21 to 53 range, Cincinnati should land three players
capable of making significant contributions at need positions. Let’s talk
through their needs and lay out how this might unfold from the first round on.
Linebacker:
Alec Ogletree (Georgia):
Ogletree is an athletic sideline to sideline type that stood out as one
of the top players on the field in the Georgia vs. Alabama SEC championship
game. He looked like he was creeping into the top 15 until a recent DUI to go
with prior off-the-field transgressions gave everyone something to think about.
If they’re comfortable with him and he falls to 21, he might be too good to
pass up.
Manti Te’o (Notre Dame): Projected early on in the top ten, Te’o’s momentum slowed in
January and he now looks like he’ll go somewhere in the 20 to 25 range. Despite
the perplexing headlines, the drop probably has more to do with his so-so
performance in the national championship game than the catfishing scandal. The
combine is huge for Te’o.
Some would argue, Burfict is penciled in at MLB, but it
wouldn’t be outrageous to have a high-end back-up plan. Both Te’o and Ogletree
should be versatile enough to play on the weak side. Worst case scenario is you
have to plug the rookie into the middle and leave Burfict at the WILL. If they
pass in round one someone like LSU’s Kevin Minter wouldn’t be a bad alternative
in round two.
Safety:
Kenny Vaccaro (Texas): Every draft class seems to have a token safety in the first
round. Vaccaro is the guy hands down this year. What every draft class doesn’t
usually have is safety depth. 2013 is the exception. Even if the Bengals miss
out, as expected, on Vaccaro, there will be plenty of alternatives with as many
as seven more safeties being projected as second or third rounders.
Running Back:
Eddie Lacy (Alabama): Lacy is riding the momentum of his
punishing performance in the national championship game to the top of the RB
heap. Still he would be a bit of a reach at 21.
Fortunately, the RB talent pool will most likely stay well stocked into
day three of the draft. If they aren’t able to land someone like Giovani
Bernard (North Carolina) or Montee Ball (Wisconsin) in round two, chances are,
guys like Johnathan Franklin (UCLA) or Kenjon Barner (Oregon) will fall into
the third or fourth rounds.
WR:
“What’s that, WR??” you say. Well, I like Sanu and Marvin Jones too, but
remember they only flashed this year. It reminds me of when everyone was so
excited about the two rookie safeties that played some as rookies a few years
ago. I don’t even remember those guys’
names. This is my dark horse for the first round. The electric but raw
Cordarrelle Patterson and the more polished but not as athletic Keenan Allen
are projected as the top two WR’s, but I hope Cincy looks past those two should
either be available. How about West Virginia’s Tavon Austin? Yes he’s a reach
at 21. Yes, it’s risky to put too much stock in a 5’8” 175 lbs. receiver. But I
think he is just what this offense needs. He’s fast. He’s quick. He can score
from anywhere. The offense had a different dimension with Andrew Hawkins
breaking big plays at the beginning of last year. However, he wore down as the
season went on and he wasn’t providing the same extra dimension at the end. Not
to mention, Hawkins a key player on special teams. It is worth duplicating his
talent on the roster to try to ensure both players can make it through the
season. Austin is a rich man’s Andrew Hawkins. If the Bengals pass at 21, I
think someone pulls the trigger in the 28 to 32 range. I say grab him while you
can. With that extra second round pick, it is a luxury they can afford. Then go
safety, LB, running back with the next three picks and they should be sitting
pretty.
That’s all for now. I’ll
try to mock out the top 21 some time in the near future. As always, stay tuned.
