If you pay any attention to NFL news you’ve likely already heard about this year’s star-studded quarterback class headlined by a clear top three prospects that consensus has had penciled into the top three picks for months.
Caleb Williams has been cast as the elite franchise savior, Drake Maye is playing the prototypical size strength guy that can still move, and Jayden Daniels is the tantalizing athlete that will tilt the field with his legs.
Despite the hype, i think the top of this class is actually really similar to last year. Williams i’ve started calling Big Bryce Young (but the size difference isn’t as great as you’d think: 6’1” 214 vs. 5’10” 204). Both were consensus number 1 throughout the process. Both are sublime maneuvering within the pocket. Both are moderate downfield passers. Both have significant questions about their skills translating. With Young i was most concerned with athletic ability. With Williams it’s more processing.
Maye is the bigger more traditional passer similar to Stroud.
And Daniels is like Anthony Richardson and Kyler Murray’s love child.
For me what distinguishes this class isn’t so much the top tier talent as it is the depth. Normally starting potential talent thins out pretty quick. Stetson Bennet, Will Levis, and Jaren Hall were the only guys last year beyond the top three that i could stomach in the backup level tier. Beyond that we were left with the likes of Hendon Hooker, Jake Haener, and Clayton Tune to headline the squint and maybe you have a decent backup tier.
This year i count seven guys in addition to the three already mentioned that would rank ahead or within last year’s backup caliber tier. Then there’s another handful below that still worth roster spots.
I haven’t heard a direct comparison, but between the pandemic, injury eligibility extensions, and probably the NIL money floating around there are a lot more games played in this class than most years.
I don’t think all of these guys are going to stick and most of them will never get much run as starters. But a few of them will, and at the very least the QB2 role should be strengthened across the league over the next 5 years as this class finds its footing.
Let’s go through the details player by player.
As a refresher…
My ratings are on a scale from 1.0 to 8.0 with 1.00 being a no brainer number 1 overall pick and 8 being an undrafted free agent)
Franchise Saviors:
Sorry Bears fans. This tier is once again empty this year. Although C.J. Stroud made an awfully compelling case that he actually belonged here even though most analysts didn’t give him that recognition. He’s not out of the woods yet though. Plenty of QBs have strung together stellar seasons only to trail off in subsequent years. I think he has a shot to pull it off. Many think Caleb Williams will do the same.
Day 1 Starters:
Caleb Williams, USC 1.1
This prospect comes along every few years. As a freshman the buzz started to build. In year two he was anointed and from Oct. of his Sophmore season through the next year and a half no one could have a conversation about any NFL team with a losing record without mentioning his name. The college broadcasters fall all over themselves after every play made and use his first name to somehow overemphasize how good he is. Caleb rolls out. Ohawww (erotic sound) what a throw by Caleb.
The problem is, i watched Williams a little last year and i was left wanting more. Now we have game clips from this season and i see the same issues.
His pocket presence is outstanding. He isn’t as smooth as Bryce Young was last year, but he keeps his eyes up, feels all of the ripples and movements of the pocket and maneuvers nimbly through the chaos. His escapability is solid. Maybe even a little Burrowesque with multiple renditions where he does that little thing where he runs in a small circle and escapes out the back door through the arms of a barreling D-lineman that can’t quite turn fast enough. It felt like he did it four times in the Washington game alone. It’s exciting but i don’t know how well all of the narrow escapes that he relies on so heavily will translate. He’s athletic but not enough to make me think he’s going to be more than an average scrambler in the pros. I’m worried it will look like it did when San Francisco tried to run designed runs for Trey Lance as a rookie and it was clear he wasn’t going to outrun or over power people any more.
Williams’ arm strength looks good. His accuracy fluctuates between just adequate to really good. There isn’t enough volume (or talent at USC to be honest) to fully evaluate his deep ball but i’d call it fine. He hits on some back shoulder balls and other sideline throws but i can’t recall much in terms of long throws in the middle of the field.
Processing is where i get hung up on Williams. People killed Justin Fields for his time to throw, but when i watched his games i thought he could see the plays but he’d keep searching for different answers. With Williams, he looks like he’s struggling to figure out the answers. The prospect of reigning in that flaw gives me pause.
People seem more willing to give Williams a pass blaming rough patches on USC’s offensive talent and Kliff Kingsbbury of all people. It’s not like Lincoln Riley went away. The same guy who tricked people into thinking Baker Mayfield was a number 1 pick is still the head coach. Riley resurrected Jalen Hurts’ career yet he can’t build a competent offense around Williams? Something else is wrong. The surrounding skill position talent could be better, but they had Jordan Addison last year and Williams had some of the same problems.
I still think he’s a top prospect with a lot of potential, but i’m leery. I can’t unsee the Notre Dame game. This is not an Andrew Luck don’t even think twice just run the card up to the podium at number 1 overall situation. It’s more like last year.. take the clearly talented prospect that should probably come off the board early and try to support him enough to fulfill the potential.
Developmental Starters:
Jayden Daniels, LSU 1.25
An electric runner with a live arm that can complete strikes all over the field. Daniels has the highest ceiling of anyone in the class, but sporadic accuracy and processing could cripple his chances at stardom.. that is if he doesn’t get physically broken before he has a chance launch or crash his career. Daniels operates with the philosophy of when in doubt scramble upfield with dazzling athleticism, but he’s often too brash and takes massive hits. One play he got blown up trying to fight through a jersey tug from behind. With his momentum slowed a defender ran full speed and detonated Daniels sending him flying back in the air several yards. If college defenders are lighting him up, i wonder about his long term prospects as a pro.
He’s 6’4” but with his slight frame he reminds me of Kyler Murray if Murray were a much less polished passer.
I feel like i should be more cautious here and drop him down a few slots in the class, but the potential is too high. I can’t resist.
Starters?
Might just be really good backups but deserve a chance to start.
Bo Nix, Oregon 1.7
If you would have told me a couple years ago that Bo Nix would draw first round consideration i would have been sick to my stomach. Auburn Bo Nix looked like a future backup for the St. Louis Battlehawks. Oregon Bo Nix looks like he’s watching an instant replay of each play rather than playing it out live. His reads are smooth and efficient. See the play, throw the ball. If it’s not there run it or throw it away.
The downfield throwing ability doesn’t blow me away, but if Kenny Pickett and Mac Jones were good enough to go mid round 1 and get a crack at starting it’s hard for me to say this guy isn’t somewhere above that line.
Drake Maye, North Carolina 1.9
Most people have Maye as QB2 and a sure fire top 3 pick. I can’t drop him down too far because the high end potential is there. He has prototypical size and strength with a little bit of mobility. Downfield passing is a little bit elusive in this class, but he was one of the few guys that demonstrated the ability to locate a ball in the right spot 30 yards down the field.
Strangely, he seems to struggle more with short to intermediate accuracy. Crossers, flares, slants, there are a lot of throws on guys’ hips where they have to twist and contort.
He flashes enough that i won’t fault anyone for taking him high. I’ve just opted to make a bit of a prediction here that Nix and Penix will have better careers. Deep down i feel the same about Williams and Daniels, but there is a high end result in the range of outcomes for “the big thee”. When push came to shove if i had a top 5 pick, i’d probably have to roll the dice and hope for the the best. I’ve decided to recognize that with Williams and Daniels but draw the line at Maye.
Michael Penix Jr., Washington 2.2
Lefty alert! There’s something natural about it too. It’s smooth and aesthetically pleasing like the lefties of old. I’m not making a Warren Moon comparison here, but Penix definitely belongs in the club (Tua on the other hand i’m not so sure). Penix looks like a pro to me. He’s not quite as sharp as Nix, but he challenges downfield more. It’s difficult to tell whether that’s related to offensive design, surrounding talent, straight up brashness, or if he’s actually more talented with deep throws but for now i’m willing to call it a feather in his cap.
His aggressiveness does lead to a few more mistakes, but he controls it well enough that the risk doesn’t outpace the reward.
There are some drawbacks. He leaves some passes short throwing off his back foot more than he should and he has a weird sling to his throwing motion that sometimes almost looks like he’s throwing a discus.
He seems like he should be a Seahawk. After four straight season ending injuries at Indiana including two torn ACLs, a separated shoulder and a fractured calavical he fought through it all and finally had some better luck at Washington. The Seahawks even hired the Huskies’ offensive coordinator. The injury history makes him a little iffy as a first round plan A for teams, but can we make a motion to just strip Seattle of a second round pick and give them Penix? Not sure why the Seahawks traded resources for Sam Howell when the universe is saying they should have Penix as their long term successor but oh well.
Jordan Travis, Florida State 2.8
Right handed Penix without the deep ball? Their play styles don’t really look that similar but they both have command that has to be recognized.
The accuracy isn’t pinpoint, but it’s good enough. He’s mobile, feels pressure and moves around to make plays. He doesn’t have wow factor in any one facet other than maybe the most important trait: instincts. He knows what to do and when to do it. He isn’t a bad thrower but he’s not starting at an advantage with his physical talent. His mind warrants an eventual chance to start . Unfortunately the broken leg that ended Florida St.’s playoff hopes probably also limited Travis’s trajectory for his first couple years in the league, but he deserves a shot in the driver’s seat at some point.
J.J. McCarthy, Michigan 3.5
I don’t know what he is and watching Michigan games did not significantly help me figure it out. Confidence is the key with McCarthy. He has barrels and barrels of it. He attacks every play aggressively whether he should or not. The infrastructure at Michigan protected him and his “force the issue” style will get exposed more often against more sophisticated defenses in the pros. But rumor has it the league loves him. I wouldn’t touch him until mid day 2. I kind of think this ranking is too high even, but with his moxie and serviceable passing talent and mobility he has a little higher potential than some of the others further down on the list.
Backup Fodder:
Devin Leary, Kentucky 4.5
Leary is a little rough around the edges. He has a big arm with passable mobility and good but not great processing. He has stretches where his accuracy fades in and out. He gets caught trying to make something happen a little too much. But there’s something here. Kentucky’s last game against Clemson, Kentucky kind of self destructed in the second half with three straight turnovers. But Leary kept thundering away, leading the team on two drives for go ahead scores in the fourth quarter. Unfortunately, the defense continued caving and Leary ran out of time on his third chance to retake the lead, but they kept battling to the end.
I think some of the rough spots last year had to do with adapting to a new environment after transferring late in his college career. Some guys can plug right in and function at a high level. Leary doesn’t appear to be that spark plug type. But give him a few years in a stable situation and i think he’ll thrive. I like him as a backup with a sliver of hope that he develops into a starter.
John Rhys Plumlee, Central Florida 4.6
Plumlee feels lost in the shuffle. He is a read option maven with lethal speed. He isn’t as twitchy or elusive as the Jayden Daniels / Lamar Jackson types, but he hits top speed in a hurry and runs through contact punishing defenses for leaving the slightest of openings. He came back from injury last year and wasn’t quite as electric playing in a knee brace, but presumably he’ll regain most of his previous form in the next year or so if not in time to open some eyes at his late March pro day.
Can he pass well enough for it to matter? I ..thinnnk so (??). He flashes. He doesn’t hit a ton of downfield throws that aren’t wide open or back shoulder, but he’s not hopeless. The short and intermediate stuff could look sharper too, but it’s not futile scattershot. It just needs fine tuned a little and he seems to have some ability finding which throw to make.
Can he be what Sean Payton always wanted Taysom Hill to be? If Denver pulls the trigger in day 3, watch out! This ranking is the inverse of J.J. McCarthy.. If i had any guts i’d bump him up to where i think he can be. But for now he is what he is: Uber athlete that needs to develop a few notches as a passer to matter in the league. I’m probably already pushing the envelope a little slotting him early day 3
Kedon Slovis, BYU 5.1
Slovis played in 46 college games for USC, Pittsburgh, and BYU. He’s competent. Does he stand out in any one trait? Not really. Can you trust him to come in and keep an offense afloat? Ding ding ding. I don’t see any significant starter upside, but the league needs to bolster its QB2 ranks and Slovis should contribute to that.
Probably Only a Backup:
Michael Pratt, Tulane 6.1
Solid shotgun quarterback. Not electric with his legs but he can take a few yards if you give him a lane. Not deadly accurate but completes throws at all levels. I don’t have developmental hopes for him but would i rather have him as my QB2 than some of the guys that started games in 2023? Absolutely.
Joe Milton III, Tennessee 6.7
He’s athletic but he’s not a talented runner. He can throw but he’s not a talented passer. He has enough ability that he should be on somebody’s roster, but i’m not sure he’ll ever find his way as a consistent starter. When you start thinking of him purely as high energy athleticism off the bench only to start in emergency spurts that’s when Milton gets interesting.
Practice Squad All-Stars:
Sam Hartman, Notre Dame 6.8
A little stiff. Hartman isn’t going to threaten with his legs. He can make nice throws but it seems to always happen when his reads go by the books. If he has to improvise, cover your eyes and say a little prayer.
Austin Reed, Western Kentucky 7.1
Small school J.J. McCarthy? Confidently runs the offense., but doesn’t locate the ball very consistently. Teams could do worse for their practice squad QB.
XFL or Bust:
Spencer Rattler, South Carolina 7.8
He’s the opposite of Leary. With Rattler everything is smooth and pristine, but something is off. He has the talent to be considered in just about every tier, but again i’m slanting towards this list being more predictive of the most likely outcome. If he ever gets his head right i will gladly take the egg on my face. But right now it’s like a knight in beautiful shiny armor with a cold empty cavity where the body is supposed to be inside of it.
And the Award Goes to…
While i’m not super confident this class will produce a lot of long term starting QB’s in the league, it is brimming with candidates for the 2024 Tyler Huntley Memorial Award.
Every year i select one member of the incoming quarterback class that deserves more consideration as a prospect than consensus is willing to give them. When Tyler Huntley came into the league he was buried on most ranking lists, but i thought he looked pretty solid at Utah. I wasn’t pounding the table for him to be drafted as a starter, but his college tape just didn’t match how he was being viewed.
The competition this year was stiff. I had to work hard to narrow down the list of candidates, but after long deliberation here are the results.
Let’s hear a round of applause for honorable mention nominee Kedon Slovis. Slovis really maximized his college career and took advantage of the modern transfer rules. The upside isn’t there but having a more competent player lurking on benches to replace the Tommy DeVitos of the world will be a nice upgrade.
Third place for the 2024 THMA goes to Devin Leary. There’s more upside here than people are giving credit. Keep an eye on him. He might surprise everyone if he catches a few breaks.
Runner up for the THMA goes to John Rhys Plumlee. Like the man whose name is on the trophy, Plumlee also didn’t get invited to the combine where he could have showcased his true upside. If the passing comes along, watch out.
Plumlee might be my favorite player in the class, but in the end the Tyler Huntley Memorial Award goes to…..
Jordan Travis.
Of all the guys without day 1 hype, Travis has the best chance to be a consistent starter. I don’t know that the play styles totally match but, i’m getting Dak Prescott vibes. Last year Dorian Thompson-Robinson impressed in similar ways but he was a bit of a mess with passing traits. Yet, he convinced Cleveland he was fit to be their plan B if their not exactly on solid footing starter had any issues. Robinson ended up with the starter role and failed rather quickly.
Travis is more capable. Once he fully recovers if he gets his shot, I don’t think he’s giving it up.
Congratulations to Jordan and the whole Travis family for achieving this very prestigious honor. The THMA trophy will no doubt sit prominently on Travis mantles for generations to come.
No Context Quote of the Day:
That’s all i’ve got on this year’s QB class. I’ll cram as much of the rest of the class in as i can and try to get a mock draft out before draft day. I’ll leave you with everyone’s (my) favorite segment: real quotes from real announcers from real games that made no sense out of context that i saw while i was watching game cut ups that made me laugh.
“..On the elliptical?
“Nah, nah “
“I was gonna say.”
“I think about it though. But my feet say NAH. not today big boy.”
And a bonus quote since i forgot to add one in my last post:
“Someone calls you a pumpkin head, take it as a compliment.”
No comments:
Post a Comment