Crunch Time

One week left, and the heat is on. All kinds of news is floating around about who is rising and who is falling as teams get down to the nitty gritty and the misinformation swirls. Here’s my attempt at a full first round mock draft…

1. Detroit

Can’t you just feel the Lions fidgeting around in Detroit trying to decide what to? It’s enough of a conundrum that multiple articles have been written debating whether or not the Lions should dodge the pick by allowing the ten-minute time limit to expire without making their choice. In that case the Rams would have the chance to pick. After the Rams, the Chiefs would be able to choose and so on until the Lions made it up to the podium to turn in the card for their selection. It could present a scenario that would have the Lions’ representative sprinting to the podium jockeying for position against other teams trying to beat them to the punch. Maybe they will elect Calvin Johnson to be their card runner. Who says the draft can’t be exciting? On second thought, what if the Rams didn’t step up to the plate either? Maybe that would be the kind of embarrassment the league needs for all parties to realize something needs to be done about the rookie salary structure. In any case, we’ll assume Detroit takes their medicine and makes the pick. Which way do they go: QB Matthew Stafford or OT Jason Smith? How about option C: None of the above. Mark Sanchez has gained quite a bit of momentum since his pro day workout. His physical abilities are a notch below Stafford’s, but he’s a hard worker and I think he has a leg up in terms of mechanics and intangibles. The ESPN boys are still locked in on Stafford, but some of the NFL.com crew are starting to waiver. Who knows what will happen, but I think Sanchez is the better pro prospect.

The Pick: Mark Sanchez, QB USC

2. St. Louis

It still boils down to Aaron Curry, Jason Smith, and Eugene Monroe for the Rams. Offensive tackle is their greatest need, so they probably pass on Curry. Monroe is a slightly safer pick, but Smith has more of a chance to be great. Some have reported St. Louis staff members prefer Monroe, but in the end I think they’ll swing for the fences.

The Pick: Jason Smith, OT Baylor

3. Kansas City

Curry is the best player available, but there might be some temptation to sure up the OT position to protect their Cassel investment. Monroe along with Brandon Albert sounds good, but is either a fit on the right side? Curry is versatile enough to step in and play next to recently acquired veterans Mike Vrabel and Zach Thomas.

The Pick: Aaron Curry, OLB Wake Forest

4. Seattle

Some mock drafts have Seattle toying with the luxury of bringing in the quarterback of the future here. With a veteran like Matt Hasselbeck on the roster who has two or three years left in his tank, this might actually be the best fit for Stafford but I’m not sold Seattle will bite. Monroe is another name that has been tied to Seattle as a contingency plan for an aging veteran, but I still think the answer is Michael Crabtree. Most analysts have shied away from slotting Michael Crabtree to the Seahawks since the Houshmandzadeh signing, but Nate Burleson is more of a #3 than a #2 WR and Crabtree would give Seattle a second solid starter for when Deion Branch gets hurt again. Don’t forget, Seattle’s receiving corps has been devastated with injuries the past couple years. At one point I thought they might call up Steve Largent. I wouldn’t be surprised if Seahawks coaches feel like they need five or six starting caliber wide outs on the roster to make it through the year.

The Pick: Michael Crabtree, WR Texas Tech

5. Cleveland

Mangini’s boys have been working overtime lately. Reports have Brian Orakpo sliding a bit because of questions surrounding his durability and toughness, and rumor has it the Browns have an eye for Sanchez. In the language universally spoken by Bellichek disciples everywhere, Orakpo is a lock to land in Cleveland. A Sanchez selection isn’t quite as unrealistic as it sounds, but the Browns would have to find a buyer for Brady Quinn. All the Braylon Edwards trade talk has many thinking Crabtree here, but neither player is an option in this scenario. From there it turns into a defensive discussion with the most likely options being Orakpo or DT B.J. Raji, and it doesn’t make much sense to spend a top 5 pick to bring Raji in to caddy for Shaun Rogers.

The Pick: Brian Orakpo, LB Texas

6. Cincinnati

Since my last post, Cincy has made some solid moves retaining LB’s Brandon Johnson and Rashad Jeanty and signing on DT Tank Johnson. I like what DT Raji would bring to the defense enough that I wouldn’t be opposed to taking Raji and letting T. Johnson and Jason Shirley fight it out for a roster spot. However, if either Monroe or J. Smith is still on the board it would be tough to ignore the OT need. Monroe is a good all around player who excels at pass blocking. If they can’t count on Levi Jones, it sounds like a good fit to me. If I were Marvin Lewis, my draft board looks like this: Curry, J. Smith, Monroe, Raji, Crabtree, and Andre smith. If they move Chad Johnson, Crabtree jumps up to the third or fourth slot.

The Pick: Eugene Monroe, OT Virginia

7. Oakland

The Raiders could use upgrades on the offensive and defensive lines and need help at wide receiver. There hasn’t been much chatter about Raji landing here, but it wouldn’t be a bad fit. However, the focus will probably be on getting JaMarcus Russell help with a blocker or a receiving target. Taking OT Andre Smith would be sensible, but taking WR Jeremy Maclin would be sexy. Maclin is fast. Maclin is electric. Note: this is Al Davis picking here.

The Pick: Jeremy Maclin, WR Missouri.

8. Jacksonville

Injuries exposed the Jaguars offensive line in 2008. A. Smith would be a nice addition to the right side of the line, but this is a team that used to rely on stingy defense. They took a large step back last year and need to retool. The CB and LB positions could be spruced up, but having big strong DT’s to enhance everyone else on the unit was always their calling card. John Henderson needs a new running mate and Raji is just the solution.

The Pick: B.J. Raji, DT Boston College

Green Bay

The Packers are another team with serious question marks along the O-line due to a rash of injuries a year ago. Additionally, they are switching defenses and could use some 3-4 tailored personnel to ease the transition. The choice probably comes down to A. Smith or DE/OLB Aaron Maybin. Aaron Rogers will most likely continue to be injury prone if they don’t add some reinforcements at tackle.

The Pick: Andre Smith, OT Alabama

San Francisco

I couldn’t quite figure out why San Fran re-signed former number 1 pick QB Alex Smith, but they probably figured they’d keep him on the roster as a painful reminder NOT to draft a junior quarterback in the first round. With Stafford ruled out they will look for upgrades at OLB or OT. Sound familiar? This pick could easily be flip-flopped with the Green Bay pick. Maybin is too small to play DE in the NFL, but has a lightning quick first step making him one of the top OLB pass-rush prospects in this year’s draft class.

The Pick: Aaron Maybin, DE/OLB Penn. State

Buffalo

The good news for Buffalo fans, the Bills just added an extra first round pick. The bad news, they offloaded Jason Peters to get it, meaning the entire left side of their O-line will be playing for a different team next year. That being considered, they might give Michael Oher a look here. However, their lack luster defensive line play a year ago has most people projecting DE in this slot with Everette Brown being the leading vote getter. I have a hard time seeing Brown as an end and think the Bills will opt for a slightly more stout option. Buffalo has proven over and over they aren’t afraid to reach for players they like, and I have a feeling they turn heads again this year snatching up fast-rising prospect Robert Ayers. Ayers is a late-bloomer with enough size to hold up at DE and some experience at playing inside too.

The Pick: Robert Ayers, DE Tennessee

Denver

Does Denver have their QB of the future or will they select him here? I think they’ll make due with what they have and hold off on hand-picking someone to groom. Instead they must turn their focus to trying to improve their defensive personnel that seems ill-fit for their new 3-4 scheme. DT is at the top of the list, but Raji is gone and no one else is worthy here. Everette Brown, Rey Maualuga, and Tyson Jackson are the next best options at OLB, MLB, and DE respectively. Jackson is the name most frequently slotted to the Broncos here with analysts citing him as the optimal 3-4 DE prospect. However, I think the Broncos are equally weak at all three positions and Maualuga is better at playing middle linebacker than Jackson and Brown are at playing their positions.

The Pick: Rey Maualuga, LB USC

Washington

The Redskins could use some firepower at defensive end to help maximize the benefits of their $100 million Albert Haynesworth investment, but the stir crazy GM/owner duo of Vinny Cerrato and Daniel Snyder appear to have a different bee in their bonnet. Reports during the Jay Cutler trade-a-palooza had the Redskins brass unceremoniously throwing in the towel on Jason Campbell’s future with the hope of acquiring Denver’s disgruntled QB. Was it simply Snyder and Co. thinking Cutler was an upgrade over Campbell and nothing more? Nahh, we know better. Here’s a thought Dan: how about you let the guy play for more than one year with the same coach in the same offense before you give up on him? Fat chance. Unfortunately for Campbell, everyone’s franchise QB golden boy for 2009 has fallen right into the Redskins’ lap.

The Pick Matthew Stafford, QB Georgia

New Orleans

CB has been somewhat of an eternal need for the Saints. They have a short-term solution in place at safety with Darren Sharper and could also use an upgrade at outside linebacker. Their offense is strong but that hasn’t stopped talk of Chris Wells being an option as the perfect compliment to Reggie Bush. Will it be the Saints that take the plunge on DE/OLB E. Brown as he tumbles down the draft board? It makes more sense for them to draft Malcolm Jenkins as a #3 corner that could develop into a top shelf corner or safety.

The Pick: Malcolm Jenkins, CB Ohio State

Houston

Houston is another team with a tiny running back that might look at Wells, but there will be time to fill that need later. Their defense needs a little help. Secondary reinforcements would be nice, but it isn’t available here. E. Brown might convert to a pretty mean strong side linebacker, but Brian Cushing can play all three LB positions if needed. Versatility gets the nod.

The Pick: Brian Cushing, LB USC

San Diego

Sand Diego is said to have very few needs to fill but could use a shot in the arm on the offensive and defensive lines. The linebacking corps and the corners took a step back last year, but if Shawne Merriman and Antonio Cromartie bounce back to ’07 form those concerns should go away. Oher would give them a boost at OT while Tyson Jackson could step in and start at defensive end.

The Pick: Tyson Jackson, DE LSU

N.Y. Jets

The Jets are somewhat difficult to project with first time head coach Rex Ryan now at the helm. They need to find direction at quarterback, but this isn’t the place to find it. It would be a stiff investment to move up to make a run at the top duo and I’m pretty sure they’d be just as well off sticking with Kellen Clemens as if they were to draft Josh Freeman here. Running back could be an option, but they’ll probably wait until later to look for Thomas Jones’ long-term replacement. E. Brown could be their guy if they’re not keen on Vernon Gholston’s future. In the end, I’m going to say they turn to one of their next two weakest positions talent-wise, WR and TE. It is probably a hair early to dip into the second tier of receivers, but Darius Heyward-Bey has the kind of top-end speed and acceleration that tends to mesmerize pro scouts. He’s a raw route runner with just adequate elusiveness, decent size (6’1”), a cocky attitude, and a knack for beating defenders deep. Sounds like Chad Johnson to me. TE Brandon Pettigrew would provide decent value but receiver is a greater need.

The Pick: Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR Maryland

Denver
I wrestled with this one quite a bit. Again, with these new coaching/GM regimes it’s hard to get a feel for how they perceive their talent level at various positions within their new offensive and defensive schemes and how they’ll go about building their roster. With them having a sub-par defense trying to transition to a 3-4, I want to say they should stick with that side of the ball with this pick, but I’m struggling to find a good fit. When all else fails, take the best player available, and it would be hard to pass up the size and speed of Chris Wells. With there roster currently consisting of RB’s J.J. Arrington, Tatum Bell, Correll Buckhalter, Andre Hall, LaMont Jordan, Michael Pittman, P.J. Pope, Ryan Torain, Selvin Young, and Peyton Hillis, I realize this pick is somewhat absurd but hey that’s the name of the game.

The Pick: Chris Wells, RB OSU

Tampa Bay

There has been a lot of Josh Freeman talk here, but I don’t think he fits into the first round picture. Their defense is a full-fledged construction zone as they attempt to transition from lean and fast cover 2 to more of a stout clog-the-middle style defense. DT Peria Jerry has playmaking skills, but isn’t quite the force they’re looking for up front. Instead, I think Everette Brown will be remaining in Florida to make the transition to linebacker. As a defensive end he’s small and would get pushed around. As a 4-3 strong side linebacker his powerful lower body strength and above average pass rush burst give him the flexibility to move around and play well against the run or the pass.

The Pick: Everette Brown, DE/OLB Florida State

Detroit

If they make a quarterback the top choice, the Lions will most likely cross their fingers and hope for an OT here. In this case, their prayers have been answered. Michael Oher’s inconsistency on film is enough to drop him right into their lap. If Oher is not available, they will consider Arizona’s Eben Britton.

The Pick: Michael Oher, OT Ole’ Miss.

Philadelphia

The Eagles have made a miracle transition in one off-season from having two aging free-agent offensive tackles to what at least on paper looks like one of the more solid young tackle duos in the league. Most analysts consider a running back that can fill in for Brian Westbrook to be their next biggest need. I would be all for a Knowshon Moreno selection here, but think they can fill that need in round two if need be. They are light on tight end talent, and Brandon Pettigrew provides a combination of receiving and blocking skills that is unique. They have a tendency to go with the more receiver-like tight ends, and if that’s what they want they will certainly have the chance to pick one up later on. However, I’d be excited to see what a physical presence like Pettigrew can provide for their offense.

The Pick: Brandon Pettigrew, TE Oklahoma State

Minnesota

The Vikings could use some young depth along their line, but are in pretty good shape on defense. They are still scratching their heads trying to figure out who is their quarterback, could use patches at center and RT, and need wide receiver help. They get the most value at this point with Percy Harvin. Concerns about his durability and character drop him to the bottom half of the round, but he has the most playmaking potential in the class. Imagine the cracks he’ll be able to exploit while Adrian Peterson preoccupies defenses each week.

The Pick: Percy Harvin, WR Florida

New England

Some teams draft for value. Some teams draft for need. The Patriots always seem to find great value at the right positions. Even when they seem to reach, the player works out and everyone who criticizes them looks dumb. This year they need to get younger at linebacker and safety. USC OLB Clay Matthews just seems like a New England guy.

The Pick: Clay Matthews, OLB USC

Atlanta

The Falcons have a promising offense, but need to rebuild their D. They more or less purged their linebacking corps, need depth at corner, and are pretty long in tooth at safety. LB James Laurinaitis would be solid and Vontae Davis would be great value at CB, but safety Louis Delmas has Bob Sanders written all over him. Some people might scratch their heads with this pick, but then again I did the same thing when the Colts selected Sanders. Delmas is flying under the radar because he’s undersized and did not play at a big time school, but if he stays healthy plenty of opposing offenses will know him well in the not too distant future. He’s fierce and plays fearless.

The Pick: Louis Delmas, S Western Michigan

Miami

Ted Ginn started to come around last year, but the Dolphins still need more receiving depth to help relieve some pressure off their rushing attack. Consequently, Kenny Britt and Hakeem Nicks are tempting, but there’s too much value to be had elsewhere with Vontae Davis still available. The Dolphins are thin on corner and Davis grades out ten or fifteen picks higher if whoever drafts him is able to rein him in a little.
The Pick: Vontae Davis, CB Illinois

Baltimore

Much like New England, the Ravens have some restocking to do in terms of linebackers and DB’s. However, if anything could be taken from Baltimore’s 2008 season it’s that they won’t be able match up against a good defensive team in the playoffs unless they upgrade their offense. They definitely could use a receiver here, but I think they’ll get more bang for the buck at running back. I get the feeling they aren’t all that happy with Willis McGahee, and Moreno is a steal at this point. He is a tough runner with a solid all-round game, and if he makes it past Philly he’ll be available.

The Pick: Knowshon Moreno, RB Georgia

Indianapolis

Consensus has Indy filling in at either WR or DT here. I’m not sure any of the remaining wide-outs fit their offense too well, and if Peria Jerry is still around I don’t think it’ll take them long to turn in their selection card. Jerry fits snugly in the mold of the light but quick attacking style the Colts crave in their defensive lineman. He won’t anchor the line, but he’ll get to the quarterback.

The Pick: Peria Jerry, DT Ole Miss.

Buffalo

Having given up their left tackle for this pick, the Bills of course need a left tackle and Eben Britton is the next best available. He might take some time to develop, but he at least gives them some direction along their line.

The Pick: Eben Britton, OT Arizona

N.Y. Giants

The Giants were aggressive in free-agency locking up Brandon Jacobs with the franchise tag and pouring money into their defensive line. It has been well-documented their offense wasn’t the same without their number one receiver last year, but unless they trade for a veteran they probably aren’t going to fill the Burress void now as anyone they draft here would probably be a couple years away from contributing. Their roster is solid enough for them to have flexibility, and they have always had a soft spot for pass rushers. I think they’ll go with Larry English or Connor Barwin with the intent at developing an outside linebacker.

The Pick: Larry English, DE/OLB Northern Illinois

Tennessee

As usual, the Titans are lacking a go-to target in the passing game. They haven’t been overzealous to address that need with first round draft picks in the recent past, so we’ll go ahead and assume they won’t start now. They could use a DT to replace the Haynesworth void, but they don’t have many options for that here. They are better off strengthening depth at corner or linebacker with pint-sized Connecticut CB Darius Butler or polished defensive captain in the making James Laurinaitis. Laurinaitus is a good find at the end of the first round as someone that can be plugged in to provide a stable force in the middle of their defense.

The Pick: James Laurinaitis, MLB OSU

Arizona

I don’t know if I’ve seen a mock draft where Arizona wasn’t projected to take a running back. Unless they acquire one in a potential Anquan Boldin trade, I’ll say they go ahead and go RB. Moreno and Wells are gone so that leaves Connecticut’s Donald Brown.

The Pick: Donald Brown, RB Connecticut

Pittsburgh

The defending champs are in a position to pick the best player available, but chances are they take advantage of the strong top tier of centers to sure up the middle of their offensive line. Alex Mack is for the most part considered the best of the group, but Eric Wood is a little more physical. For a team that hangs their hat on a physical rushing attack, Wood is their man.

The Pick: Eric Wood, Louisville