Franchise Dilemma

Franchise Dilemma

The early entry deadline has past and Senior Bowl week is upon us. Almost exactly three months until draft day and it’s starting to become more realistic to say: “The Detroit Lions are on the clock.” If you’re a Lions fan, your team is coming off the worst season in NFL history and all you’re hoping for is a can’t-miss, franchise-healing number one pick. Unfortunately, the drama of who will be selected first will most likely be more suspenseful than the Detroit faithful would like. No spot in the draft is ever an exact science, but this year’s crop of young players in particular seems to be thin on elite prospects.

In 2008, it wasn’t clear who the Dolphins would pick, but they had quite a few options considered worthy of the selection. Jake Long, Chris Long, Matt Ryan, Glenn Dorsey, Sedrick Ellis, Joe Flacco, and even Darren McFadden could all compete for the top pick slot in this year’s class. Instead, the derby seems to be between the two QB’s Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez and OT Andre Smith. LB Aaron Curry and WR Michael Crabtree might enter into the equation as long shots because they require less development than most other prospects, but neither has that high potential ceiling that teams yearn for with the top pick. Would any of the above have cracked the top 5 in last year’s draft? Probably not. There’s a long way to go. Someone might emerge as the favorite, but for now the picture remains cloudy.

Jostling for Position in Mobile

The deadline to declare for the draft saw a variety of first-round-quality prospects electing to return to school, including Brandon Spikes (LB Florida), Greg Hardy (DE Mississippi), Taylor Mays (S USC), and Sam Bradford (QB Oklahoma). The handful of players choosing to put off the NFL for a year weakened an already thin draft class. The impact was felt in Mobile at the Senior Bowl last week as every workout between now and draft day has increased significance with players scrambling for draft position among a jumbled field of prospects. Almost as interesting was the number of prospects deciding to forgo Senior Bowl week. It’s not unheard of for big-name players to shy away from participating, fearing that injury or a poor performance in front of NFL brass in an uncontrolled setting might hurt their status. There are only three to four players who are locks to go in the top ten, compared to the seven or eight from 2008. There’s a lot of money to be won and lost in the next three months. With Malcolm Jenkins, James Laurinaitus, Aaron Curry, Eugene Monroe, Jason Smith, Brian Orakpo, and Michael Johnson all opting out this week, the abundance of high draft picks up for grabs seems to have players and agents taking the conservative approach.

Of those that did decide to participate, several helped themselves quite a bit. All three USC linebackers showed up and backed up the hype. Rey Maualuga put his dazzling size, speed, and ferocity on display, along with his various flaws such as unpolished recognition and edge pass rushing skills. Overall, he managed to sustain his status as an 8 to 15 range prospect. For Brian Cushing it was versatility that opened the eyes of scouts as he stood out all over the field. One analyst felt Cushing demonstrated the ability to excel at all three linebacker positions and could fit into either a 4-3 or a 3-4 defense. That kind of flexibility probably upgrades Cushing from a 15 to 25 guy to a 10 to 20 prospect. Clay Matthews had an impressive showing as well. A fringe late round 2, round 3 prospect coming into the week Matthews might have worked his way into the late round 1 picture showing off a strong punch and good edge presence. One sequence of footage showed him going up against first round OT prospect Michael Oher for two reps. First, Matthews came at Oher with a bull rush and drove the big strong tackle back to the quarterback. On the second go-round Matthews used quickness to get inside only to be neutralized by a takedown that looked like it could have been flagged for holding. Regardless of where he ends up, it’s pretty impressive the former walk-on who often didn’t crack the starting line-up at USC is even in the Day 1 draft picture. Speaking of Oher, the ‘Ole Miss tackle had a solid week himself. Despite a few hiccups here and there, he confirmed for scouts he needs some work but has all the tools to be a standout player in the league. More significantly, the only one of the top four senior tackles to show up, Oher eased concerns about his passion and work ethic showing high intensity and improvement throughout the week. The effort looks to have stabilized his previously declining draft stock to the 8 to 18 range. B.J. Raji also turned some heads throughout the week. The Boston College DT managed to solidify top defensive lineman status making most interior offensive linemen look inferior during practices.

Bearcat Watch:

The athleticism of Connor Barwin was on display as Cincy’s standout DE lined up on defense in pass rushing drills and at TE on offense. Unfortunately, Bearcat CB Mike Mickens didn’t fare as well. Showing lingering effects from his knee injury, he was sent home midweek.

Top 10 Mock Draft:

1. Detroit:
Okay Detroit G.M. what are you going to do? You have the worst defense in the league, a suspect offensive line, and little to no long-term direction at quarterback. Orchestrating the draft strategy for a team like the Lions is a tall order, but the ambiguity as to who is most talented in the 2009 draft class only heightens the difficulty of the decision. Everyone outside of Detroit is saying, “You have to go QB right?” But the early murmurs from the newly assembled Detroit front office and coaching staff are hinting they want to build in the trenches. In a league where quarterbacks develop slowly and patience with coaching regimes can wear thin after two to three years, delaying the search for a franchise QB is dangerous. Yet, picking the wrong guy is much worse. Stafford and Sanchez have too many question marks right now to put this pick down in ink. Most pundits are going with Stafford. I’m beginning to waiver, but at this point the alternative is just as shaky. Miami had Jake Long to fall back on when they couldn’t convince themselves of Matt Ryan, but Andre Smith is no Jake Long. Unless Smith or anyone else garners enough momentum for Detroit to ignore the train wreck at quarterback, Stafford is the default.
The Pick: Matthew Stafford, QB Georgia

2. St. Louis
The Steve Spagnuola hire makes this more of an interesting pick. Their offensive line and defense have been broken for years. The last three first rounds have aimed at mending the defense, and most feel they can’t ignore the O-line needs any longer. If they have their choice of the linemen it will be hard to pass up. Then again, the defensive minded rookie coach could be tempted to push for Wake Forest LB Aaron Curry even if Detroit doesn’t nab the top OT (TBD).
The Pick: Andre Smith, OT Alabama

3. Kansas City
It became official this week, there will be a totally new G.M. / coaching tandem in K.C. next year. There will be plenty of debate between sticking with Tyler Thigpen at QB and picking Sanchez here. I don’t know that in the end Scott Pioli anoints Thigpen as his QB of the future, but the availability of a guy that can immediately improve the defense a notch gives him the flexibility to test drive Thigpen for a year. Sanchez has as many question marks as Thigpen.
The Pick: Aaron Curry, LB Wake Forest

4. Seattle
The Seahawks could go a number of directions, but the most obvious that everyone seems to have latched onto is wide receiver. They should revamp their O-line and Matt Hasselbeck’s injury riddled 2008 season probably has them thinking a little, but if Michael Crabtree puts up a respectable 40 time, he’s their guy. The Pick: Michael Crabtree, WR Texas Tech

5. Cleveland
Eric Mangini would surely love nothing more than to snatch up Curry to juice up the potency of his linebacking corps. The Chiefs beat him to the punch in this scenario and I’m not ready to slot Cushing into the top 5 as an alternative. They could try to move back a few slots, but more than likely they go to their next biggest need and pick CB Malcolm Jenkins before Green Bay does it.
The Pick: Malcolm Jenkins, CB Ohio State

6. THE CINCINNATI, OHIO BENGALS
Interestingly enough at number six, the Bengals are the first team to pick without a new head coach. They have a little more of a foundation to build on than critics give them credit, but have a variety of holes to fill.

The front office will shape their needs based on roster moves and free agency signings with decisions coming at wide receiver, center, running back, and offensive tackle. The Housmandzadeh dilemma has been well chronicled. They either shell out a ton of cash to hold on to a 32 year-old receiver who also happens to be Carson Palmer’s favorite target and the team’s third down savior, or bank on the Caldwell/Henry/Simpson combo overcoming injury/maturity/experience issues to fill the void. Ghiaciuc has failed to establish himself as a reliable anchor for the offensive line. Do they give him more time, let him walk and bring in a veteran, or draft a new young Rich Braham heir apparent? If they fail to re-sign Cedric Benson, they have a frightening depth problem at running back and would surely have to dip into the fairly respectable pool of talent available in the draft. Even if they retain Benson, spending a day 2 pick wouldn’t be unreasonable. Sorry buckeyes fans, either way the first round is too early for a RB for this team. Not having the option of bringing Stacy Andrews back at RT (assuming his rehab at least lands him on PUP if they wanted to keep him) heightens O-line needs, and it’s hard to imagine them not deciding to rebuild the left side of the line. The overall goals for the off-season have to be to stabilize the offensive line and to keep shoveling young athletic players into the defense.

If the Bengals opt to draft strictly for value, the early indications are that OT is the way to go. In this scenario, they have their choice of the Eugene Monroe/Jason Smith/Michael Oher trio. Alternatively, the focus shifts to the defensive front seven. Even if K.C. decides to pass on Curry, Cincinnati winning the last week of the season to leap frog Cleveland in draft position most likely will cost them the chance of snatching this draft’s top defensive player. The pecking order past Curry is still being sorted out, but most discussions will revolve around top middle LB, Maualuga and top D-lineman, Raji. Maualuga brings fire to the defense but also carries a certain amount of bust potential. Raji would make for an attractive upgrade to John Thornton and form a promising rotation inside with Domata Peko and Pat Sims. A young pass rusher would be ideal, but the options are limited. Mississippi DE Greg Hardy deciding to return to school leaves the 2009 draft class with almost no first round 4-3 DE prospects. Some scouts have mentioned hybrid DE/OLB prospects Aaron Maybin (Penn State) and Brian Orakpo (Texas) as candidates for the number 6 pick, but I’m not yet convinced either is top 10 worthy. Cushing is probably the top OLB candidate past Curry and would provide outstanding flexibility to the linbacking corps. If Cincy’s talent evaluators think his pass rush prowess is up to snuff, having him to insert anywhere left to right in the defense to send at the QB could wreak havoc. However, in the eyes of most pundits Cushing has some work to do to enter into the equation with the number 6 pick. My personal preference would be to address O-line issues in free-agency and go defense in round 1 with Curry, Raji, Cushing, and Maualuga ranking one to four respectively as the top candidates. Unfortunately, with the Andrews injury and the decline of Levi Jones, there just might be too much work to do up front on offense for coaches to avoid feeling obligated to draft OT early.
The Pick: Eugene Monroe, OT Virginia

7. Oakland
Has anyone heard a shred of good news come out of Oakland lately? There was Nnamdi Asomugha making the all-pro team establishing him officially as one of the leagues top cornerbacks. Then again, it could just wind up as more salt in the wound if the Raiders aren’t able to retain him this off-season. They have solid linebackers but need some beef up front to protect them. Raji perhaps? They have high potential young players at the offensive skill positions but need some beef up front to protect them. The whole world seems ready to brand JaMarcus Russell a bust, but let’s give him another year or two before we go there. After last year’s string of disastrous high-priced acquisitions (see Javon Walker, DeAngelo Hall, and Tommy Kelly), Al Davis does the sensible thing here for once.
The Pick: Jason Smith, OT Baylor

8. Jacksonville
A rash of injuries on the offensive line sabotaged the Jaguars’ season early and they never recovered. They still haven’t found a go-to receiver to replace the long-departed Jimmy Smith, but despite some early predictions by draft experts I’m not sure Missouri’s Jeremy Maclin fits into the picture this early in the first round. Oher should draw some consideration here as running the ball used to be their bread and butter and Raji would fit nicely as a new running mate for Jonathan Henderson. They couldn’t go wrong either way, but things seem to have gone a bit stale in the heart of their D. I see them looking to spice things up with the fiery freak of nature, Rey Maualuga. The Pick: Rey Maualuga, LB USC

9. Green Bay
It sure doesn’t seem like the Packers should be picking this early. With loads of talent at the skill positions, they look to be a step away from becoming an offensive juggernaut. Yet, like seemingly every other team in the top ten they need stronger play up front on both sides of the ball. That brings the debate once again back to Oher and Raji. They traded Corey Williams to Cleveland a year ago banking on ’07 draft pick Justin Harrell to pick up the slack and teams ran over them. Sounds like it’s time for some reinforcements.
The Pick: B.J. Raji, DT Boston College

10. San Francisco 2008 saw the last flicker of hope fizzle out that former number one overall pick Alex Smith might come around. The Niners are in need of a quarterback and I don’t think Shaun Hill is the answer. Enter California boy Mark Sanchez. I think most would prefer seeing him another year in college before truly feeling warm and fuzzy about him as a prospect, but Sanchez opted not to give anyone more opportunities to pick him apart. Although, this isn’t exactly a case of a kid blowing off school to cash in big. He’s been in school four years, has earned his degree, and seems to be embracing the lifestyle changes necessary to go from college standout to pro prospect. If St. Louis and K.C. pass on Sanchez, San Francisco lucks out that all other teams in front of them aren’t in the market for QB help. The biggest threat to the 49ers acquiring Sanchez might be Detroit; therefore, Stafford could be the guy San Fran coaches are evaluating here. It will be interesting to see how evaluations develop the next two months.
The Pick: Mark Sanchez, QB USC