Home Stretch

The Blog is back! The fall has flown by, and unfortunately I have been MIA for the past few months. But with the recent nosedive taken by my fantasy team, my URFFL season is over and it’s time to rejoin the blog circuit. So in case you’ve missed my not-so-expert NFL opinions, my naïve optimism for all things Bengal, or my unhealthy appetite for draft discussion, here is an update.

Home Stretch:

The playoff picture is firming up. The NFC field is locked in with teams still jockeying for position while AFC squads are fighting for wild card slots heading into the final week of the season. As the second half of the season has unfolded, most everyone’s favorites to reach the final four have been New Orleans, Minnesota, Indianapolis, and San Diego. Things have shifted a bit as of late and teams without a first round bye now have hope. Here’s my team by team take on the playoff picture.

Indianapolis:

The Colts were once again faced with the question inevitably asked when a team stays undefeated into December: Risk injury to chase perfection or rest players heading into the playoffs? Indy coach Jim Caldwell answered the question this past week pulling his teams’ stars while the game was still in doubt.

I think answering the question depends on the roster. Playing starters all the way to the end of the season is ideal. It allows a team to stay as sharp as possible while still utilizing the first round playoff bye to rest. This comes with injury risk, but I don’t like going into preseason mode right before the playoffs. However, the Colts’ roster relies on older stars that have been banged up throughout the year like Reggie Wayne and Dwight Freeney that could use extra time off. The thing to do would have been to play starters into week 17 and pull first stringers at some point in the second half. When the Colts start playoff play, it will have been four weeks since their team at full strength has been forced to take a game into the fourth quarter and close out a victory. That’s too long (see the Colts in 2005 against the Steelers).

That being said, Caldwell knows his team better than I do. They are still my Super Bowl favorite. Peyton Manning is just on a different level than everyone else. He has been far from flawless, but he has proven all year long that if he is within striking distance in the fourth quarter he will find a way. Not only does he put constant pressure on opposing defenses, but the mere presence of Manning at the end of a game causes opposing offenses and coaches to take risks they wouldn’t normally take (ask Bill Belichik).

New Orleans:

The Saints’ magic ran out in week 15 as they were finally unable to complete a comeback and they lost to Dallas. Another loss this past week, this time against the bottom-feeding Buccaneers, leaves analysts wondering if New Orleans has a playoff run in them. I think they do. It’s far from a sure thing. Any of the six NFC playoff teams could take the conference championship, but New Orleans still has a leg up. They haven’t been clicking on all cylinders offensively, but I like Sean Peyton to refocus his troops and tighten things back up just in time to win the shootout that will be the NFC playoffs.

San Diego:

The winter hot streak for the Chargers has continued, and many pundits have tabbed them as the current Super Bowl favorite. I don’t see it. I think they are overrated at this point. The consistency of their offense is their strength, but they aren’t invincible. Their receivers have size, but they can be defended. Their running game is talented but needs more toughness. Their defense has improved as the year has progressed but I don’t think they match up very well against the Colts. They’ve had Manning’s number in the past, but this year’s D doesn’t pass rush like they used to.

Philadelphia:

Beyond everyone’s big four there are a handful of dark horse candidates. Riding a six game winning streak, the Eagles are leading the pack. With Minnesota continuing to stumble down the stretch, Philly can even pry a first round bye from the Vikes with a win this Sunday. The Eagles have had injury setbacks all season. The offensive line doesn’t even come close to resembling the talented group originally projected to start week 1 and it has been a revolving door at linebacker all year long. In between they’ve had to do without the services of Brian Westbrook, Jeremy Maclin, Kevin Curtis, DeSean Jackson and even Donavan McNabb for various stints. All the while, the Eagles have rolled on gaining momentum like a snowball tumbling down a mountain. It remains to be seen whether their latest loss of starting center Jamaal Jackson will be the straw that breaks the Eagles’ back or if they will soar all the way to Miami. I’ve got them flying high before falling short in a showdown with the Saints in the NFC championship game. The Eagles defense has done just enough throughout the season to allow the offense to win games, but I think New Orleans is the one team that can out-duel McNabb and the quickly emerging Eagle offense.

Minnesota:

Brett Favre is right on schedule. He navigated a fairly punchless schedule with ease and had even some of his most ardent doubters back peddling their way onto his band wagon. Unfortunately, the boys in Minnesota got a little too comfortable and things are starting to fall apart. Who better than the old gunslinger to round up the stray cattle and save the season? I can think of about a dozen people and one of them might be Tavaris Jackson. The thing is, I don’t doubt the fact that the guy can still play quarterback. He is definitely in the top half of the league at his position. My contention all along has been that he will never win another Super Bowl because he can’t carry his team through three games against playoff-caliber competition any more. At some point, he will slip up and they will lose. People might say he doesn’t have to carry this team to win because he has enough talent surrounding him, but the problem is that Favre can’t win like that. It isn’t because he’s looking for revenge. It isn’t because he’s arrogant. He’s just not built like that. Even if the Vikings manage to steal back the number two seed, I don’t see them getting past Philly.

Cincinnati:

It has been quite a season for the orange and black. Their have been a lot of ups and downs, but the boys have fought hard and regardless of what happens Bengals fans can at least be proud of that. After years and years of failure, the defense has finally been transformed into a top-notch unit. The offense has shown flashes, but in the end Andre Caldwell, Laveranues Coles, and J.P. Foschi have been unable to fill the voids left by T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Chris Henry, and Reggie Kelly. A revitalized offensive line/rushing attack has masked some of the team’s offensive problems, but the fact is they just haven’t been able to convert consistently on third and five without Houshmandzadeh and they haven’t been able to apply pressure down the field without Henry. Can the Bengals go on a playoff run in their current state? Maybe. They can win in the wild card round playing at the same level they’ve been playing, but to do any damage against the big boys they’re going to need some of the younger players to catch fire.

Offensively, the spark has to come from Caldwell. All year long the Bengals O has struggled to put themselves in flexible situations on second and third downs. Increased production on mid-range routs might be the nudge needed to open things up for big plays from Chad Ochocinco and Cedric Benson. When Caldwell started to get involved this past week against the Chiefs, the Bengals put together a game-winning touchdown drive.

The defense has played with heart all year long. The secondary has executed at a high level and the front seven has held their own. Unfortunately, the pass rush hasn’t been the same since Antwan Odom went down early in the season. Jonathan Fanene has filled in admirably, but I’m not sure he’s capable of elevating his contributions to a higher level. To beat the top offenses in the league, this team needs a terror off the edge. The only potential candidate to fill that role is rookie DE Michael Johnson. He has started to come around utilizing his size (Have you seen his massive arms? Am I the only one who can’t wait to see what he looks like next year?) to bat down passes and his speed to apply pressure on the QB.

On special teams, Bernard Scott is the guy capable of providing a big boost. He had some big returns early in the year including the TD against Pittsburgh, but has been slowed by injury the second half of the season. Against teams that put up a lot of points, a kickoff return man that can dictate field position is crucial.

Conclusion:

At the start of the year, I picked New Orleans vs. New England in the Super Bowl. Whatever happens, it should be a horse race in the NFC. On the other side, unless one of the lower seeds manages to catch lighting in a bottle, it will be a predictable Indianapolis or San Diego Super Bowl birth from the AFC. New England isn’t good enough on defense and Cincinniti isn’t good enough on offense to make it through both top seeds. I’m going to stick with the Saints, but give Indianapolis the nod to come out of the AFC.

Stay tuned. It’s about time to start ratcheting up draft talk.