Mocking it Up!

Super Bad Pick

Well, my Colts by 17 pick was quite the prediction, eh? New Orleans took care of business outplaying Indianapolis in all aspects of the game. Brees was a shoe-in for MVP, but I was most impressed with the performance by Saints coach Sean Payton.

Sorry Marvin Lewis, but how does Payton not win coach of the year? Payton’s display on the league’s biggest stage makes me think maybe they should look past the regular season when deciding such accolades. He coached a brilliant game, start to finish. His lone mistake was that ridiculous onside kick call. Analysts will rave on forever about how “gutsy” it was and it is going to drive me crazy. Yes, the play had a huge impact on the game, but it would have had an equally huge impact in the opposite direction if the Saints didn’t get the ball back. They totally caught the Colts off guard and still appeared to only recover the kick because the ball got pinned up against somebody’s leg making it hard for the Colts player to secure the ball. Their game plan was unfolding beautifully and they decided more or less to gamble the entire game on one mad scramble for the football. No matter what they saw on film, the onside kick was a mistake.

It’s a good thing the Saints recovered that ball because it would have been a shame to spoil the masterpiece put together by Payton for the rest of the game. The pace was crucial. If it weren’t for the extended halftime show, the game might have been over by 9:00. The Saints came up with what seemed like dozens of 10 to 15-yard first down plays. Crafting long sustaining drives, they kept momentum and bled the clock. Indy’s biggest weakness was their corners and Payton ran 10-yard outs with those big receivers all day long to exploit it. They kept Peyton Manning off the field, but more importantly they minimized Indy’s experience advantage. The Saints’ players didn’t have a chance to realize what they were doing. Before they could freeze up and blow the game like they tried to do against the Vikings, the game ended.

The aftermath of the game, as expected sparked loads of media discussion about Manning’s status among great quarterbacks. One loss and all of the critics who used to constantly harp on all of his big game failures come crawling out of the woodwork. Yes, the “best ever” moniker has to go back on the shelf for a while, but calling the guy a choke artist is going a little too far. Manning has been voted MVP more times than anyone else because he is the most valuable player. How many quarterbacks could threaten an undefeated season with Charlie Johnson and Ryan Diem as their starting offensive tackles? He makes everyone in that franchise better from Austin Collie to Dwight Freeney all the way up to team President Bill Polian. Peyton Manning didn’t lose the Super Bowl. The Colts lost the Super Bowl because they got out-schemed and out-coached.

The Mock Madness Begins!

1. St. Louis:

The Rams followed up their two win season a year ago with a one win season and have earned the honor of picking number one overall in the draft. “You need a quarterback. Your offensive line is still in shambles. You don’t want to tie up too much money on your defensive line.” Don’t mind those whispers in the background. That’s just Detroit trying to convince St. Louis not to take Ndamukong Suh. Yes, St. Louis has greater needs elsewhere, but you don’t draft need over value with the number one pick. There is too much at stake. Don’t blink. Don’t think. Just take the best player available and most agree that Suh is the guy.
The Pick: Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska

2. Detroit:

Assuming St. Louis doesn’t do something crazy, the Lions will miss out on Suh. Lucky for them, there is someone touted as being almost as good for them to take instead. They have some work to do to get more physical on the offensive and defensive lines. A stud OT would be nice, but DT Gerald McCoy is considered a better prospect than any O-lineman available.
The Pick: Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma

3. Tampa Bay:

Here’s where things start to get interesting. The Buccaneers could use a wide receiver and need players just about everywhere on defense. They purged the majority of their veterans from last year’s roster and the one they kept, Ronde Barber, is starting to lose a step. Safety Eric Berry is the highest rated player at this point and a lot of mock drafts are tabbing him as Tampa’s guy. He is a special player, but a safety number 3 overall? Even Sean Taylor didn’t get taken until the fifth pick. The Bucs need defensive linemen just as bad as DB’s. I think pass rushing talent will win out in the end. DE Derrick Morgan isn’t a finished product, but he has everything scouts crave in defensive end prospects. He has size, speed, an impressive repertoire of pass-rush moves and he holds up strong against the run. By the time April rolls around, I think Morgan will have gained a lot of momentum. He might even threaten McCoy for the number two slot.
The Pick: Derrick Morgan, DE, Geogia Tech

4. Washington

What a coincidence. Washington has the fourth pick and this year’s draft class has the rare distinction of having a safety with top 5 talent. As weird as it would be to see the Redskins pick in the top 10 without taking a DB (see Laron Landry, Carlos Rogers and Sean Taylor), I don’t see new coach Mike Shanahan selecting a safety with his first choice as head man in Washington. A lot of people think Shanahan will go for his quarterback of the future here. Keep an eye on Sam Bradford’s draft stock, but at this point I think the Redskins are better served making a safer pick for a greater need. Russell Okung is currently thought to be the best all-around blocker available. Washington desperately needs talented youth on their offensive line.
The Pick: Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State

5. Kansas City

Who will pick Eric Berry? The final landing spots of QB’s are usually some of the more interesting storylines on draft day. I think it’s just as interesting to watch what happens when great players come along at lower value positions (S, LB, RB). Berry is considered a top five talent in the 2010 draft class. However, he is a safety. A lot of teams with high picks find it hard to commit the obligatory large sums of guaranteed money to lower impact positions. A lot of analysts are slotting OT in this spot for that very reason. It will be interesting. I think you might see a little bit of the opposite effect. Poor economic times and the unsettling labor landscape facing the NFL might force teams to opt for giving an elite guy like Berry more money instead of gambling on a boom or bust OT prospect.
The Pick: Eric Berry, S, Tennessee

6. Seattle

There is always at least one surprising coaching change at the end of each NFL season. The Seahawks made this year’s headlines in recent weeks when they coaxed USC coach Pete Carroll to head north. Carroll has plenty of work to do finding a quarterback to build around and reconstructing the offensive line. Rutgers OT Anthony Davis is a contender here, but when it’s all said and done I think Sam Bradford gains enough momentum to get the nod. They can squeeze another year out of Hasselbeck and hopefully have a chance to retool the o-line before Bradford has to take over.
The Pick: Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma

7. Cleveland

Having a roster desperate for offensive skill position players, I’m sure the newly appointed director of football operations, Mike Holmgren, would love to grab a weapon on his favorite side of the ball. Unfortunately, Oklahoma State WR Dez Bryant might be his only option along those lines and it is probably a few picks early for him even. He will most likely have to opt for defense instead. I think OLB is their biggest need, but the pickins are slim in the top half of the first round this year. The best value looks like Florida CB Joe Haden. Haden easily stands out above the rest of the CB’s in the draft. The theme continues. Play it safe. Don’t reach. Take the best player available.
The Pick: Joe Haden, CB, Florida

8. Oakland

This is where “play it safe” gets thrown out the window. Here we are again with the chore of trying to predict the Raiders in the top 10. The quarterback situation is a mess but I don’t think they’ll try to address that here. They need an OT, but that would make way too much sense. The next best bet is defensive end. Most have dropped Florida defensive end Carlos Dunlap in projections for maturity concerns, but if Al Davis thinks Dunlap can play, Davis won’t be scared to pick him. Stay tuned to see where his draft stock ends up.
The Pick: Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida

9. Buffalo

The Bills are yet another franchise with questions at QB and OT. Some think they’ll take a QB here but I don’t see them giving up on Trent Edwards quite yet. In that case, Buffalo will be ecstatic if Oakland does pass on the OT’s. They beefed up the interior portion of their line in last year’s draft. Now it’s time to secure the edge. Many think Anthony Davis is the most talented OT of the class. Right now, I see him as 2010’s version of Andre Smith. While he’s not likely to commit as many pre-draft gaffes as Smith, I think questions about his attitude will rule him out of top 5 contention.
The Pick: Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers

10. Denver

The Jaguars and the Broncos will flip a coin for the tenth pick so for now I’ll go ahead and cover both of them. The Broncos acquired this pick in the Cutler trade. Might they use it to pick their next quarterback? Until we get a better idea of Jimmy Clausen’s value, I’m going to say no. Denver could use help with their run defense, but it is too early for the second tier of DT’s. Next on Denver’s list should probably be wide receiver. Brandon Marshall might be out the door and Eddie Royal’s production dropped off in his second year. Even if Marshall doesn’t leave, Dez Bryant makes sense. Having been ineligible for most of the college season, grading Bryant as a top 10 talent is basically an assumption right now. He will have a lot of money at stake during workouts the next two months.
The Pick: Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State

11. Jacksonville

The Jaguars entered the home stretch of the season with playoff aspirations. Instead, they lost five of six and finished last in the AFC south. They focused on retooling the o-line in ’09 and finally might be going in the right direction at receiver. However, they are weak at strong side linebacker and still haven’t come up with a solution at DE. They can probably find a linebacker later. Depending on how things play out, it might boil down to Dunlap or Jason Pierre-Paul. Pierre-Paul is dynamic, but only has one year of D1 college experience. Last season’s film should be enough though and it will probably come down to whether he measures out big enough to play 4-3 DE in the pros.
The Pick: Jason Perre-Paul, DE, South Florida

Stay tuned for combine reaction, and hopefully I’ll get back to some long overdue Bengals chatter.